Tenets of Wilson

2021-12-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Saturday

New England over Tampa Bay

New England lost to Indianapolis, but remains most likely to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-5	0.754	68.2	99.1	74.3	48.4	31.3	19.7
ARI	10-3	0.691	89.7	100.0	69.6	40.0	22.8	11.7
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	75.8	42.3	22.8	11.2
KC	10-4	0.655	92.1	99.0	67.3	34.5	16.5	8.5
BUF	7-6	0.729	31.7	67.6	39.8	23.5	14.0	8.4
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.4	99.9	60.3	31.2	16.1	7.6
IND	8-6	0.665	4.0	88.9	50.9	26.4	13.0	6.8
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	71.4	34.3	15.3	6.5
LAR	9-4	0.623	10.2	97.7	47.2	22.7	11.1	4.9
TEN	9-4	0.563	96.0	99.2	66.2	27.4	10.1	4.2
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.4	45.7	21.7	9.7	4.1	1.9
SF	7-6	0.551	0.1	73.7	28.9	11.6	4.7	1.8
BAL	8-5	0.539	42.8	64.6	26.6	10.1	3.7	1.4
DEN	7-6	0.605	1.9	34.5	16.3	7.3	3.1	1.4
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	41.4	17.5	7.6	3.4	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	5.9	59.5	23.4	8.5	2.8	1.1
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	29.1	11.0	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	33.7	12.2	4.4	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	20.1	30.3	10.3	3.4	1.0	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	16.7	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.7	6.7	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.1	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	-	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)
First teams eliminated from the playoffs: Jacksonville, Houston (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 13, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 14, Final] New England over Tampa Bay
[Week 15, Thursday] New England over Tampa Bay

2021-12-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over Tampa Bay

Kansas City beat LA on Thursday, and is now the #1 seed in the AFC, and the 2nd most likely team to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	84.2	99.7	85.2	56.4	37.2	23.7
ARI	10-3	0.691	90.0	100.0	69.7	40.1	22.8	11.5
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	75.8	42.4	22.9	11.0
BUF	7-6	0.729	15.7	71.5	44.7	25.4	14.9	8.9
KC	10-4	0.655	92.1	99.4	63.3	33.7	15.4	7.9
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.4	99.9	60.3	31.2	16.0	7.4
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	71.3	34.3	15.3	6.3
LAR	9-4	0.623	9.9	97.7	47.1	22.7	11.1	4.8
IND	7-6	0.647	1.6	65.8	36.0	17.2	8.1	4.1
TEN	9-4	0.563	98.4	99.6	58.1	24.6	8.7	3.6
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.4	47.7	23.4	10.3	4.3	2.0
SF	7-6	0.551	0.1	73.7	28.9	11.6	4.7	1.7
DEN	7-6	0.605	1.9	37.7	18.5	7.9	3.3	1.5
BAL	8-5	0.539	42.8	67.9	28.7	10.8	3.8	1.5
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	41.4	17.5	7.6	3.4	1.3
LAC	8-6	0.515	5.9	64.2	26.3	9.1	3.0	1.1
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	29.1	11.0	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	33.7	12.2	4.4	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	20.1	32.5	11.6	3.7	1.1	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	16.7	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.7	8.0	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.5	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	-	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-14

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Tampa Bay

With a loss on Monday night, Arizona and Tampa Bay are tied at 10-3, and have nearly identical chances of getting to the Super Bowl. I only show 1 decimal place here, but if I displayed 2 we'd see Arizona at 22.82% and Tampa Bay at 22.85%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	84.2	99.7	86.3	56.9	37.9	24.2
ARI	10-3	0.691	90.0	100.0	69.7	40.1	22.8	11.5
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	75.8	42.3	22.8	11.0
BUF	7-6	0.729	15.7	71.3	45.1	25.8	15.2	9.0
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.4	99.9	60.3	31.2	16.0	7.4
KC	9-4	0.647	68.0	94.4	57.4	29.7	13.4	6.7
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	71.3	34.3	15.3	6.3
LAR	9-4	0.623	9.9	97.7	47.1	22.7	11.1	4.8
IND	7-6	0.647	1.6	64.1	35.6	17.1	8.0	4.1
TEN	9-4	0.563	98.4	99.5	57.5	24.7	8.8	3.7
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.5	47.2	23.1	10.3	4.3	2.0
SF	7-6	0.551	0.1	73.7	28.9	11.6	4.7	1.7
LAC	8-5	0.525	25.8	75.7	33.1	12.2	4.1	1.5
BAL	8-5	0.539	42.7	67.1	28.6	10.9	3.8	1.5
DEN	7-6	0.605	6.2	36.0	17.9	7.7	3.2	1.5
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	41.4	17.5	7.6	3.4	1.3
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	29.1	11.0	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	33.8	12.3	4.5	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	20.0	31.7	11.4	3.7	1.1	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	16.7	4.2	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.8	7.9	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	0.0	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.4	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-13

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Tampa upset Buffalo, and we're getting closer to the Brady vs. Belichick Super Bowl people seemed to want last year. Arizona still has the NFC lead, but Tampa is right behind them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	84.2	99.7	86.3	56.9	37.9	24.0
ARI	10-2	0.699	96.3	100.0	79.2	47.5	27.5	14.1
TB	10-3	0.672	99.9	100.0	71.8	40.0	21.3	10.3
BUF	7-6	0.729	15.7	71.4	45.1	25.8	15.2	9.0
DAL	9-4	0.652	98.3	99.9	60.5	31.0	15.8	7.3
KC	9-4	0.647	68.0	94.4	57.4	29.7	13.4	6.7
GB	10-3	0.605	99.8	100.0	67.8	32.1	14.2	5.9
IND	7-6	0.647	1.5	63.7	35.4	17.0	8.0	4.0
LAR	8-4	0.612	3.7	91.5	42.4	19.6	9.2	3.9
TEN	9-4	0.563	98.5	99.6	57.5	24.7	8.8	3.6
CIN	7-6	0.606	33.4	47.1	23.1	10.3	4.3	2.0
SF	7-6	0.551	0.0	74.2	29.3	11.5	4.7	1.7
LAC	8-5	0.525	25.8	75.7	33.2	12.3	4.1	1.5
BAL	8-5	0.539	43.0	67.5	28.7	10.9	3.8	1.5
DEN	7-6	0.605	6.2	36.0	17.9	7.7	3.2	1.5
PHI	6-7	0.583	0.8	43.2	18.3	7.7	3.4	1.3
NO	6-7	0.537	0.1	30.2	11.4	4.3	1.7	0.6
MIN	6-7	0.519	0.2	35.4	12.9	4.6	1.7	0.6
CLE	7-6	0.478	19.9	31.7	11.4	3.6	1.1	0.4
WAS	6-7	0.390	0.8	17.1	4.3	1.1	0.3	0.1
SEA	5-8	0.521	-	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	3.7	7.9	2.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	6-7	0.368	0.0	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
ATL	6-7	0.309	-	4.5	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CAR	5-8	0.447	-	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-9	0.343	-	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.310	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-11-1	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-10	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.216	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-10

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Arizona

Minnesota beat Pittsburgh on Thursday night, but at a combined 12-13-1, the game didn't affect the projection at the top by much. Neither team is out of the playoffs, though. It's looking like we could have a 9-8 or 8-9 (or 8-8-1) team in the playoffs this year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	72.6	99.5	86.4	57.5	38.5	24.6
ARI	10-2	0.699	96.2	100.0	83.3	51.4	30.3	15.5
BUF	7-5	0.736	27.4	85.2	59.3	35.9	21.5	13.1
TB	9-3	0.663	99.1	99.9	68.7	38.1	20.1	9.5
DAL	8-4	0.640	92.8	99.2	59.5	30.3	15.2	6.8
GB	9-3	0.581	98.9	99.9	64.6	29.5	12.5	4.9
LAR	8-4	0.612	3.7	93.2	45.7	21.5	10.3	4.3
IND	7-6	0.647	4.0	59.4	34.0	16.5	7.8	3.9
KC	8-4	0.582	61.0	84.7	44.1	19.6	7.6	3.3
CIN	7-5	0.610	41.2	65.6	34.7	16.5	6.9	3.2
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.0	97.9	51.4	20.7	6.7	2.6
BAL	8-4	0.543	50.5	83.0	39.5	15.9	5.5	2.2
PHI	6-7	0.583	2.7	44.1	19.3	8.2	3.7	1.5
SF	6-6	0.545	0.0	61.1	24.7	9.7	4.0	1.4
LAC	7-5	0.498	29.3	63.8	26.9	9.6	3.0	1.1
MIN	6-7	0.519	1.1	37.8	14.3	5.2	2.0	0.7
DEN	6-6	0.544	7.7	24.1	10.7	4.1	1.5	0.6
NO	5-7	0.496	0.6	22.4	8.0	2.7	1.0	0.3
CLE	6-6	0.474	6.5	14.9	5.5	1.8	0.5	0.2
WAS	6-6	0.403	4.5	30.7	8.5	2.3	0.6	0.2
LV	6-6	0.432	1.9	10.6	3.7	1.0	0.3	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.3	5.3	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1
PIT	6-6-1	0.405	1.8	8.5	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0
SEA	4-8	0.478	-	2.0	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.8	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.370	0.1	1.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-7	0.300	0.0	1.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.328	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-10-1	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-9	0.268	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-
JAC	2-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-10	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-07

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Arizona

Monday's matchup between New England and Buffalo had some big potential tiebreaker implications, and New England asserted their dominance in the AFC East, and the AFC overall.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-4	0.762	72.6	99.5	86.5	57.7	38.7	24.7
ARI	10-2	0.699	96.2	100.0	83.3	51.3	30.3	15.5
BUF	7-5	0.736	27.4	84.5	59.0	35.8	21.4	13.0
TB	9-3	0.663	99.1	99.9	68.7	38.1	20.1	9.5
DAL	8-4	0.640	92.8	99.3	59.5	30.3	15.2	6.8
GB	9-3	0.581	99.4	100.0	64.9	29.7	12.5	4.9
LAR	8-4	0.612	3.8	94.3	46.2	21.7	10.4	4.4
IND	7-6	0.647	4.1	57.1	32.8	16.0	7.5	3.8
KC	8-4	0.581	60.8	83.9	43.9	19.6	7.6	3.3
CIN	7-5	0.610	39.7	64.4	34.4	16.4	6.8	3.2
TEN	8-4	0.525	95.9	97.7	51.4	20.8	6.7	2.6
BAL	8-4	0.543	49.3	81.6	39.1	15.7	5.5	2.2
PHI	6-7	0.583	2.7	47.8	21.0	8.9	4.0	1.6
SF	6-6	0.545	0.0	62.3	25.2	9.9	4.1	1.5
LAC	7-5	0.498	29.5	62.9	26.6	9.5	3.0	1.1
DEN	6-6	0.544	7.8	23.5	10.5	4.0	1.5	0.6
MIN	5-7	0.505	0.6	28.1	10.3	3.6	1.3	0.4
NO	5-7	0.496	0.6	24.4	8.7	3.0	1.1	0.3
CLE	6-6	0.474	6.1	14.2	5.2	1.7	0.5	0.2
WAS	6-6	0.403	4.5	30.5	8.5	2.3	0.6	0.2
PIT	6-5-1	0.418	4.9	18.1	6.1	1.6	0.4	0.1
LV	6-6	0.432	2.0	10.0	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.3	6.1	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
SEA	4-8	0.478	-	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	2.5	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.370	0.1	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-7	0.300	0.0	2.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.328	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-10-1	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-9	0.268	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-10	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-06

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Arizona won again, and skipped right past 99.99% likely to make the playoffs, and are now above 99.999%. On the other end of things, Detroit still isn't mathematically eliminated, but at 2-10, both Jacksonville and Houston are now never making the playoffs in any of my simulations either. As far as I can tell, they actually are eliminated

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.0	97.0	77.2	50.2	32.5	20.1
ARI	10-2	0.699	96.2	100.0	83.3	51.3	30.3	16.0
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.9	90.6	65.7	40.6	24.7	14.7
TB	9-3	0.663	99.1	99.9	68.8	38.2	20.1	9.9
DAL	8-4	0.640	92.8	99.3	59.4	30.3	15.2	7.1
GB	9-3	0.581	99.4	100.0	64.8	29.7	12.5	5.1
LAR	8-4	0.612	3.8	94.3	46.2	21.7	10.4	4.5
IND	7-6	0.647	4.3	57.3	32.7	16.5	8.0	4.1
KC	8-4	0.582	60.8	83.9	44.1	19.8	8.1	3.5
CIN	7-5	0.610	39.7	63.3	34.1	16.5	7.2	3.3
TEN	8-4	0.525	95.7	97.6	54.7	22.0	7.6	2.9
BAL	8-4	0.543	49.3	81.2	39.4	16.0	5.9	2.4
PHI	6-7	0.583	2.7	47.8	21.0	8.9	4.0	1.7
SF	6-6	0.545	0.0	62.2	25.2	9.9	4.1	1.5
LAC	7-5	0.498	29.5	61.9	26.6	9.7	3.2	1.1
DEN	6-6	0.544	7.8	23.0	10.1	4.0	1.5	0.6
MIN	5-7	0.505	0.6	28.1	10.3	3.6	1.3	0.5
NO	5-7	0.496	0.6	24.3	8.7	3.0	1.1	0.4
CLE	6-6	0.474	6.1	13.6	4.9	1.7	0.5	0.2
WAS	6-6	0.403	4.5	30.5	8.5	2.3	0.6	0.2
PIT	6-5-1	0.418	4.9	17.8	6.0	1.7	0.4	0.1
LV	6-6	0.432	2.0	9.7	3.4	1.0	0.3	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.3	6.2	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
SEA	4-8	0.478	-	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-7	0.429	0.0	3.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.370	0.1	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-7	0.300	0.0	2.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.328	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	1-10-1	0.295	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-9	0.268	-	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-10	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-12-03

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Arizona

Dallas beat New Orleans on Thursday night, increasing their Super Bowl chances just a bit. They're still third in the NFC, but not quite as far behind, 29.4-18.7-17.2 vs the previous 30.1-19.0-14.5.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.9	97.6	77.0	50.1	32.4	20.6
ARI	9-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	82.2	50.2	29.4	15.1
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.0	91.0	64.0	39.5	24.0	14.7
TB	8-3	0.643	97.7	99.3	66.3	35.9	18.7	8.8
DAL	8-4	0.640	94.7	99.1	62.6	33.1	17.2	8.0
CIN	7-4	0.642	46.6	83.3	53.2	28.1	13.1	6.8
GB	9-3	0.581	96.9	99.9	67.1	31.9	14.1	5.7
BAL	8-3	0.544	49.6	91.8	51.6	21.0	7.7	3.2
LAR	7-4	0.562	3.1	87.2	38.4	16.5	7.3	2.8
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.9	98.1	50.6	20.0	7.0	2.8
SF	6-5	0.558	0.4	78.4	33.5	14.3	6.3	2.4
KC	7-4	0.556	46.8	67.3	31.0	12.9	5.0	2.1
IND	6-6	0.595	3.1	43.4	21.7	9.8	4.2	2.0
DEN	6-5	0.572	28.4	46.8	22.0	9.5	3.8	1.7
MIN	5-6	0.509	3.0	51.8	19.8	7.3	2.9	1.0
PHI	5-7	0.556	2.0	31.1	13.2	5.5	2.4	0.9
LAC	6-5	0.466	16.8	34.9	13.0	4.3	1.3	0.5
NO	5-7	0.496	1.3	19.5	7.2	2.6	1.0	0.3
LV	6-5	0.438	8.0	21.7	7.5	2.3	0.7	0.2
CLE	6-6	0.474	2.7	12.8	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
WAS	5-6	0.402	2.9	17.4	5.1	1.4	0.4	0.1
PIT	5-5-1	0.417	1.1	9.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.7	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
NYG	4-7	0.395	0.4	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
SEA	3-8	0.462	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	5-7	0.409	0.0	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-6	0.320	0.3	4.2	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.0	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.289	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-9	0.274	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-9	0.297	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Final] New England over Arizona

2021-11-30

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Arizona

Washington beat Seattle on Monday, but 2 sub-.500 teams don't have much effect on the teams at the top, no matter the result this late in the season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.9	97.7	77.0	50.1	32.4	20.7
ARI	9-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	82.7	50.9	30.1	15.4
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.0	91.1	64.1	39.5	24.0	14.8
TB	8-3	0.643	95.7	99.1	66.0	36.1	19.0	8.9
CIN	7-4	0.642	46.6	83.3	53.2	28.1	13.1	6.8
DAL	7-4	0.622	89.0	95.6	57.0	28.9	14.5	6.5
GB	9-3	0.581	96.9	99.9	67.8	32.8	14.5	5.9
BAL	8-3	0.544	49.6	91.8	51.6	21.0	7.7	3.2
LAR	7-4	0.562	3.1	85.7	38.8	16.8	7.5	2.9
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.9	98.1	50.7	20.0	7.0	2.8
SF	6-5	0.558	0.4	76.2	33.4	14.3	6.3	2.4
KC	7-4	0.556	46.8	67.3	31.0	12.9	5.0	2.2
IND	6-6	0.595	3.1	43.4	21.7	9.8	4.2	2.0
DEN	6-5	0.572	28.4	46.8	21.9	9.4	3.8	1.7
MIN	5-6	0.509	3.0	47.8	18.5	6.9	2.7	0.9
PHI	5-7	0.556	5.1	29.8	13.0	5.5	2.4	0.9
NO	5-6	0.515	3.4	34.0	13.4	5.1	2.1	0.7
LAC	6-5	0.466	16.8	34.9	13.0	4.3	1.3	0.5
LV	6-5	0.438	8.0	21.6	7.5	2.3	0.7	0.2
CLE	6-6	0.474	2.7	12.8	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
WAS	5-6	0.402	5.1	17.0	5.1	1.5	0.4	0.1
PIT	5-5-1	0.417	1.1	9.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.6	4.9	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
NYG	4-7	0.395	0.8	4.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	5-7	0.409	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
SEA	3-8	0.462	0.0	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-6	0.320	0.3	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.289	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-9	0.297	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-9	0.274	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-11-29

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Arizona

With a win on Sunday, New England took back the AFC lead from Buffalo. They're up by 1 win in the standings, but Buffalo is actually still just about 51% likely to win the division. The difference comes in New England's higher chance at a Wildcard, and their higher strength. Also, while Arizona shows a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs, that's actually just rounded up from 99.97, so they haven't quite clinched yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.9	97.7	77.0	50.1	32.5	20.7
ARI	9-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	82.7	50.8	30.1	15.4
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.0	91.0	64.1	39.5	24.0	14.8
TB	8-3	0.643	95.7	99.1	66.0	36.1	18.9	8.9
CIN	7-4	0.642	46.6	83.3	53.2	28.1	13.1	6.8
DAL	7-4	0.622	90.7	96.0	57.2	29.1	14.6	6.5
GB	9-3	0.581	96.9	99.9	67.8	32.7	14.5	5.9
BAL	8-3	0.544	49.6	91.8	51.6	21.0	7.7	3.2
LAR	7-4	0.562	3.1	85.5	38.5	16.7	7.4	2.9
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.9	98.1	50.7	20.0	7.0	2.8
SF	6-5	0.558	0.4	75.7	33.0	14.1	6.3	2.4
KC	7-4	0.556	46.8	67.3	31.0	12.9	5.0	2.2
IND	6-6	0.595	3.1	43.4	21.7	9.8	4.2	2.0
DEN	6-5	0.572	28.4	46.8	21.9	9.4	3.8	1.7
MIN	5-6	0.509	3.0	49.4	19.1	7.1	2.8	1.0
PHI	5-7	0.556	5.3	30.6	13.4	5.6	2.5	1.0
NO	5-6	0.515	3.4	34.6	13.6	5.2	2.1	0.7
LAC	6-5	0.466	16.8	34.9	12.9	4.3	1.3	0.5
LV	6-5	0.438	8.0	21.6	7.5	2.3	0.6	0.2
CLE	6-6	0.474	2.7	12.8	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
PIT	5-5-1	0.417	1.1	9.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.1
WAS	4-6	0.402	3.1	10.1	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.6	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	4.4	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.1
NYG	4-7	0.395	0.9	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	5-7	0.409	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-6	0.320	0.3	3.9	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.0	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.289	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-9	0.274	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-9	0.297	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-