Tenets of Wilson

2016-10-18

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Monday

New England over Minnesota

Arizona had a huge win over the New York Jets that really improved their strength, and their chances at making the Superbowl, more than doubling them. 3-3's still 2.5 games behind Minnesota though, and there are 2 other stronger NFC teams, so they're still just about 9.5% likely to make the big game.

The Jets have now taken over as the weakest team in the league. They're slightly better positioned to make the playoffs than 0-6 Cleveland, but would be projected to lose to them head to head.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	62.57	92.70	77.95	45.13	26.25	14.14
MIN	5-0	0.616	86.35	94.02	83.04	47.13	25.91	14.27
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.21	77.14	57.45	32.02	18.16	9.65
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.56	52.05	35.56	18.99	10.09	5.45
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.56	84.12	66.48	36.02	18.93	10.11
ARI	3-3	0.598	32.34	52.33	34.70	18.13	9.46	5.03
DEN	4-2	0.569	43.78	66.19	49.30	25.87	12.94	6.33
SEA	4-1	0.565	57.37	70.56	49.32	24.32	11.80	5.89
PIT	4-2	0.561	67.66	76.29	54.30	28.12	13.87	6.67
ATL	4-2	0.550	72.06	75.75	45.78	21.42	10.00	4.84
SD	2-4	0.531	6.91	18.62	10.85	5.08	2.36	1.06
KC	3-2	0.515	27.32	46.31	28.78	13.32	5.92	2.58
BAL	3-3	0.505	27.48	39.04	22.25	10.06	4.41	1.88
GB	3-2	0.502	8.47	33.99	17.67	7.36	3.13	1.37
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.38	41.04	22.71	9.52	4.00	1.74
DET	3-3	0.494	4.88	22.26	11.21	4.60	1.92	0.83
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.46	33.44	17.94	7.56	3.13	1.27
NO	2-3	0.481	16.02	21.83	10.48	4.15	1.66	0.69
OAK	4-2	0.480	22.00	45.46	27.84	11.83	4.84	1.94
IND	2-4	0.477	9.06	13.55	6.63	2.71	1.11	0.44
CAR	1-5	0.475	1.99	3.10	1.35	0.52	0.21	0.08
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.50	15.60	7.41	2.85	1.11	0.45
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.11	6.85	3.33	1.33	0.55	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	51.98	58.49	31.76	12.57	4.81	1.82
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.50	17.77	8.26	3.18	1.21	0.45
LA	3-3	0.440	9.77	18.18	8.28	2.99	1.09	0.41
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.52	7.11	2.99	1.10	0.40	0.14
TB	2-3	0.414	9.94	12.78	5.13	1.71	0.58	0.20
CHI	1-5	0.410	0.30	1.38	0.52	0.17	0.06	0.02
SF	1-5	0.404	0.52	1.02	0.38	0.12	0.04	0.01
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.34	0.41	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01
NYJ	1-5	0.374	0.12	0.63	0.24	0.08	0.02	0.01

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota

2016 World Series Projection, October 18

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-3 CLE
LAD 1-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.51	51.20
CLE	0.5648	93.95	32.35
TOR	0.5609	6.05	2.04
LAD	0.5596	29.49	14.42

Historically, teams don't come back from a 3-0 deficit very much at all, and I give Toronto just a 6% chance of accomplishing it. The NLCS resumes today in LA. Chicago's probably already faced the toughest starting pitcher they'll have to, Clayton Kershaw, so the Dodgers will probably just need to hope to steal one of the next two games and send him out again on short rest. But we'll see how it plays out.

2016-10-17

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Sunday

New England over Minnesota

Pittsburgh lost a game they should have won, and New England more than doubled Cincinnati's score in a win, and we have a new AFC and Superbowl favorite. It's slightly unfair because Minnesota has only played 5 games, and thus get their strength regressed a bit further toward .500 than New England does. But, the system is the system, and maybe Minnesota loses big next week, we just don't know for sure yet.

It might be too early in the season to consider this, but might we see the second 0-16 team ever? I give Cleveland a 0.75% chance of that happening, but that's up from 0.44% on Thursday. Sitting below every other team, they've got about a 20% chance of winning 2 games or less, and about a 45% chance of 3 wins or less. Their next 2 against Cincinnati and New York are two of their 3 easiest remaining games, so if they get to 0-8, we'll start seeing their winless chances really increasing.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	5-1	0.618	61.68	91.81	76.97	44.60	25.94	14.08
MIN	5-0	0.616	86.73	94.55	84.18	48.39	26.85	14.79
BUF	4-2	0.611	36.68	76.39	57.03	31.83	18.07	9.68
PHI	3-2	0.606	23.41	53.42	36.70	19.77	10.60	5.73
DAL	5-1	0.600	58.34	84.88	67.35	36.92	19.58	10.47
DEN	4-2	0.570	43.77	66.34	49.49	25.99	13.02	6.42
SEA	4-1	0.565	67.52	76.18	54.04	26.86	13.11	6.55
PIT	4-2	0.561	68.15	76.65	54.69	28.35	14.00	6.78
ATL	4-2	0.550	72.34	76.46	47.00	22.20	10.47	5.07
ARI	2-3	0.548	20.12	34.60	20.41	9.58	4.53	2.18
SD	2-4	0.531	6.90	18.72	10.92	5.12	2.38	1.08
KC	3-2	0.516	27.35	46.64	29.07	13.46	5.99	2.63
BAL	3-3	0.505	26.95	38.27	21.80	9.86	4.33	1.86
GB	3-2	0.502	8.24	35.29	18.50	7.76	3.33	1.45
WAS	4-2	0.500	13.80	43.46	24.26	10.24	4.34	1.89
DET	3-3	0.494	4.74	23.12	11.72	4.84	2.05	0.88
TEN	3-3	0.484	24.54	33.57	18.06	7.62	3.16	1.29
NO	2-3	0.481	16.08	22.66	11.05	4.41	1.78	0.74
OAK	4-2	0.480	21.97	45.54	27.92	11.88	4.87	1.97
IND	2-4	0.477	8.80	13.17	6.45	2.64	1.08	0.43
CAR	1-5	0.475	2.01	3.30	1.46	0.57	0.23	0.09
NYG	3-3	0.466	4.45	16.44	7.89	3.06	1.21	0.49
MIA	2-4	0.465	1.14	6.59	3.21	1.29	0.53	0.21
HOU	4-2	0.455	52.10	58.62	31.94	12.65	4.85	1.85
JAC	2-3	0.448	14.55	17.84	8.31	3.20	1.22	0.46
LA	3-3	0.440	11.63	20.13	9.17	3.32	1.22	0.46
CIN	2-4	0.424	4.57	7.19	3.03	1.12	0.41	0.14
NYJ	1-4	0.418	0.51	2.26	0.98	0.35	0.13	0.04
TB	2-3	0.414	9.57	12.77	5.23	1.76	0.61	0.21
CHI	1-5	0.410	0.29	1.47	0.56	0.19	0.06	0.02
SF	1-5	0.404	0.72	1.26	0.47	0.15	0.05	0.02
CLE	0-6	0.391	0.33	0.39	0.14	0.05	0.02	0.01

2016 World Series Projection, October 17

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-2 CLE
LAD 1-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.51	51.26
CLE	0.5648	81.75	28.14
TOR	0.5609	18.25	6.15
LAD	0.5596	29.49	14.45

We got a pretty exciting game last night, as 1-0 games usually are. Although I did reassure my Cubs-fan friend before the game that Kershaw would completely shut them down. Chicago is still over 70% likely to win the series, and more likely than not to win the World Series.

2016-10-16

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

Clemson is now #1, a place they haven't been yet this year. I should really keep some sort of high/low/average information on teams so I can see at a glance where they've been. Of course, at 7-0, Clemson has certainly been near the top all season. My system really prefers you play that extra game, so bye weeks have a tendency to hurt even teams like Texas A&M, who was #1 last week. But, eventually they'll catch up to Clemson in games played, and all will be fair again.

Just because they're my adopted team, I'll mention that Missouri lost again, this time to Florida. That SEC schedule's a tough one...

Good news for fans of Miami, Ohio, your team won a game! Now Rice is at the bottom of my rankings. They'll need to win their last 6 to be bowl eligible, barring the win distribution issues we had last year that put several 5-win teams in bowls.

1	Clemson	7-0
2	Alabama	7-0
3	Western Michigan	7-0
4	Texas A&M	6-0
5	Michigan	6-0
6	Ohio State	6-0
7	Houston	6-1
8	Boise State	6-0
9	Washington	6-0
10	Nebraska	6-0
11	Utah	6-1
12	Florida State	5-2
13	Tennessee	5-2
14	South Florida	6-1
15	North Carolina	5-2
16	West Virginia	5-0
17	Pittsburgh	5-2
18	Arkansas	5-2
19	Louisville	5-1
20	Baylor	6-0
21	Arizona State	5-2
22	Colorado	5-2
23	Wake Forest	5-2
24	Florida	5-1
25	Central Michigan	5-2
26	Toledo	5-1
27	Troy	5-1
28	Memphis	5-1
29	San Diego State	5-1
30	Iowa	5-2
31	Navy	4-1
32	Penn State	4-2
33	Washington State	4-2
34	USC	4-3
35	Eastern Michigan	5-2
36	Oklahoma	4-2
37	Stanford	4-2
38	Wisconsin	4-2
39	Virginia Tech	4-2
40	Auburn	4-2
41	Minnesota	4-2
42	Georgia Tech	4-3
43	Oklahoma State	4-2
44	LSU	4-2
45	Miami	4-2
46	NC State	4-2
47	Appalachian State	4-2
48	Wyoming	4-2
49	Tulsa	4-2
50	BYU	4-3
51	Georgia	4-3
52	TCU	4-2
53	Temple	4-3
54	Ole Miss	3-3
55	Maryland	4-2
56	Idaho	4-3
57	Akron	4-3
58	Old Dominion	4-2
59	Air Force	4-2
60	Middle Tennessee	4-2
61	Western Kentucky	4-3
62	Louisiana Tech	4-3
63	Northwestern	3-3
64	Ohio	4-3
65	UCLA	3-4
66	California	3-3
67	Indiana	3-3
68	Southern Mississippi	4-3
69	Connecticut	3-4
70	Kentucky	3-3
71	Syracuse	3-4
72	Cincinnati	3-3
73	Colorado State	3-4
74	Texas Tech	3-3
75	Kansas State	3-3
76	Army	4-2
77	Vanderbilt	3-4
78	UCF	3-3
79	Tulane	3-3
80	Duke	3-4
81	Ball State	4-3
82	Boston College	3-3
83	New Mexico	3-3
84	Georgia Southern	3-3
85	Purdue	3-3
86	Texas San Antonio	3-3
87	South Alabama	3-3
88	UNLV	3-4
89	Texas	3-3
90	Hawai'i	3-4
91	Oregon State	2-4
92	North Texas	3-3
93	Oregon	2-4
94	Virginia	2-4
95	Arizona	2-5
96	Missouri	2-4
97	SMU	2-4
98	Utah State	2-4
99	Illinois	2-4
100	Arkansas State	2-4
101	Rutgers	2-5
102	South Carolina	2-4
103	Nevada	3-4
104	Louisiana Monroe	2-4
105	East Carolina	2-4
106	Louisiana Lafayette	2-4
107	Florida Intl	3-4
108	Marshall	2-4
109	Mississippi State	2-4
110	Michigan State	2-4
111	Texas State	2-4
112	Kent State	2-5
113	New Mexico State	2-4
114	Notre Dame	2-5
115	Charlotte	2-5
116	Northern Illinois	1-6
117	Bowling Green	1-6
118	San Jose State	2-5
119	Georgia State	1-5
120	Kansas	1-5
121	Miami (OH)	1-6
122	Fresno State	1-6
123	Iowa State	1-6
124	Buffalo	1-5
125	Massachusetts	1-6
126	UTEP	1-5
127	Florida Atlantic	1-6
128	Rice	0-6

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M

2016 World Series Projection, October 16

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-2 CLE
LAD 0-1 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	83.85	60.96
CLE	0.5648	81.75	25.56
TOR	0.5609	18.25	5.57
LAD	0.5596	16.15	7.91

Chicago blew a lead but came back to win their game, and it doesn't look like anyone's going to stop them. Cleveland won another close one, and everything by the numbers looks just like yesterday but with more certainty to it.

2016-10-15

2016 World Series Projection, October 15

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-1 CLE
LAD 0-0 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	73.53	53.54
CLE	0.5648	66.37	22.38
TOR	0.5609	33.63	11.08
LAD	0.5596	26.47	13.00

Cleveland kept my projection stable for another day, and in fact it should be the same after each LCS plays a game tonight. That's because Chicago will still be favored even if they are down 0-1 against LA, and, just like yesterday, Cleveland will be slightly favored if their series is even.

2016-10-14

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Finally, we see something semi-interesting happen as a result of a Thursday/Monday game. Last night Denver, one of the top AFC teams, lost a game they were favored to win against San Diego. If you look my my previous post, Minnesota and Philadelphia's odds of making the Superbowl stayed nearly the same. Pittsburgh (and New England, too) gained approximately two thirds of a percent, and other AFC teams also went up a little. That's because Denver lost almost 5 percentage points, and the sum of all AFC teams has to be 100% to make the Superbowl. The teams at the top stand to gain the most, especially when it's a top team that lost. Still, we're only talking about 1 in 5 odds, so Pittsburgh is not yet a sure thing to make the Superbowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.616	82.02	94.38	83.10	47.91	26.85	15.18
PHI	3-1	0.605	44.64	69.18	51.30	28.26	15.23	8.44
NE	4-1	0.589	63.23	84.23	67.03	37.48	20.64	10.66
PIT	4-1	0.584	71.45	86.18	70.12	39.03	21.16	10.83
DAL	4-1	0.575	43.04	72.82	52.13	26.85	13.55	7.10
DEN	4-2	0.569	40.95	68.37	50.11	26.61	13.85	6.88
BUF	3-2	0.565	34.18	61.28	41.94	21.84	11.38	5.60
SEA	3-1	0.564	55.74	65.88	44.61	22.18	10.89	5.59
ATL	4-1	0.550	79.54	83.19	56.37	27.24	12.93	6.45
ARI	2-3	0.548	21.97	35.23	20.80	9.85	4.69	2.33
SD	2-4	0.530	6.12	19.65	11.20	5.34	2.57	1.18
GB	3-1	0.530	14.62	54.18	31.51	14.29	6.60	3.16
BAL	3-2	0.515	23.52	47.88	29.50	13.78	6.43	2.85
OAK	4-1	0.508	40.84	67.86	47.20	21.83	9.89	4.31
DET	2-3	0.489	2.81	15.95	7.85	3.23	1.36	0.60
WAS	3-2	0.486	8.98	26.93	14.27	5.93	2.47	1.07
IND	2-3	0.482	23.40	28.13	14.41	6.14	2.62	1.08
KC	2-2	0.481	12.09	26.37	14.71	6.34	2.72	1.12
CAR	1-4	0.478	4.25	7.59	3.49	1.39	0.57	0.24
TEN	2-3	0.478	23.24	28.37	14.31	6.05	2.57	1.05
NO	1-3	0.476	8.44	13.75	6.56	2.61	1.06	0.45
CIN	2-3	0.459	4.79	14.11	7.03	2.87	1.19	0.46
NYG	2-3	0.456	3.34	10.40	4.84	1.86	0.72	0.29
JAC	1-3	0.451	14.56	16.75	7.72	3.05	1.21	0.46
SF	1-4	0.448	2.80	4.44	1.89	0.70	0.27	0.11
HOU	3-2	0.447	38.80	43.63	21.61	8.48	3.32	1.25
LA	3-2	0.443	19.48	31.52	15.31	5.67	2.11	0.83
MIA	1-4	0.434	1.11	3.22	1.45	0.56	0.22	0.08
NYJ	1-4	0.418	1.47	3.33	1.43	0.53	0.20	0.07
CHI	1-4	0.417	0.55	2.88	1.15	0.40	0.14	0.05
TB	2-3	0.414	7.78	11.68	4.81	1.65	0.57	0.21
CLE	0-5	0.397	0.24	0.63	0.25	0.09	0.03	0.01

2016 World Series Projection, October 14

Chicago over Cleveland

League Championship Series
TOR 0-0 CLE
LAD 0-0 CHC

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	73.53	53.62
CLE	0.5648	50.87	17.15
TOR	0.5609	49.13	16.19
LAD	0.5596	26.47	13.04

Chicago's chances just keep going up. Higher-rated Washington lost to LA, so Chicago is starting the NLCS with a 73.5% chance of winning. They'll have to wait a day to start though, since tonight begins the ALCS. I've got that one pretty evenly matched, just slightly favoring Cleveland, but my gut says Toronto may take it. Both teams swept their way in, so they'll be rested and ready with their optimal pitching rotations.

2016-10-13

eBay Wins #238

It's been awhile since I've posted one of these, having posted a whole bunch of posts from a single contest prize package, and now my NFL projections. My big box of cheap cards is getting overstuffed, so it's time to get some of it posted and sorted, although with Zistle's demise likely coming soon, I'm going to have to figure out what my new system is to move cards into my "sorted" boxes.

1989 Score Rookie/Traded #5T Mike Moore

I assume these came in the big lot of Oakland A's I bought awhile back, but who can really be sure anymore? The only other card I have from this set so far is Ken Hill's, out of the 110 total.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	4223
Total Spent	$57.25
Per Card	1.356 cents
Change	0 cents

2016-10-12

2016 World Series Projection, October 12

Chicago over Cleveland

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 2-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	100.00	69.05	50.35
WAS	0.6018	54.33	18.86	11.07
CLE	0.5648	100.00	50.87	16.79
TOR	0.5609	100.00	49.13	15.84
LAD	0.5596	45.67	12.09	5.96

I think everyone's waiting for the Cubs to fail this year, either out of fear, jealousy, or just believing in curses. Last night during my local news, they gave the score, 5-2 in the 8th, and said that game 5 would be played Thursday in Chicago. Obviously, it will not, since the Cubs came back to win it with 4 runs in the 9th. LA and Washington will have a deciding game 5 on Thursday, and then we'll be on to the League Championship Series.

2016-10-11

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Final

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Monday night featured a 2-1 team vs a 2-2 team, so nothing much changed near the top. Even with Green Bay's win to move to 3-1, they are a game and a half behind Minnesota in the division.

In the AFC, I was happy to see my results from yesterday of Pittsburgh being just slightly ahead of New England confirmed, since it was close enough I thought it could have simply been an issue of the margin of error. Pittsburgh is still your AFC favorite, but by just a little.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.616	82.03	94.38	83.09	47.90	26.85	15.09
PHI	3-1	0.605	44.64	69.17	51.27	28.25	15.22	8.39
NE	4-1	0.589	63.09	84.11	66.20	36.75	20.07	10.37
PIT	4-1	0.584	71.46	85.95	68.96	38.05	20.49	10.49
DEN	4-1	0.580	54.42	80.47	63.29	34.56	18.32	9.30
DAL	4-1	0.575	43.05	72.81	52.12	26.83	13.54	7.05
BUF	3-2	0.565	34.30	61.22	41.33	21.36	11.04	5.44
SEA	3-1	0.564	55.75	65.89	44.60	22.18	10.89	5.55
ATL	4-1	0.550	79.68	83.33	56.55	27.33	12.97	6.43
ARI	2-3	0.548	21.98	35.23	20.79	9.85	4.69	2.31
GB	3-1	0.530	14.62	54.17	31.50	14.28	6.59	3.14
SD	1-4	0.516	2.43	10.00	5.39	2.46	1.15	0.51
BAL	3-2	0.515	23.51	47.49	28.84	13.35	6.19	2.74
OAK	4-1	0.508	33.56	67.61	45.18	20.62	9.29	4.05
DET	2-3	0.489	2.81	15.94	7.84	3.22	1.36	0.59
WAS	3-2	0.486	8.97	26.92	14.26	5.92	2.46	1.06
IND	2-3	0.482	23.38	28.00	14.10	5.94	2.52	1.03
KC	2-2	0.481	9.58	25.38	13.85	5.90	2.52	1.03
CAR	1-4	0.478	4.26	7.63	3.51	1.40	0.57	0.24
TEN	2-3	0.478	23.29	28.23	14.07	5.89	2.48	1.01
NO	1-3	0.476	8.28	13.58	6.48	2.58	1.04	0.44
CIN	2-3	0.459	4.79	14.18	6.95	2.80	1.15	0.45
NYG	2-3	0.456	3.34	10.39	4.83	1.85	0.72	0.29
JAC	1-3	0.451	14.44	16.61	7.56	2.95	1.16	0.44
SF	1-4	0.448	2.80	4.43	1.89	0.70	0.26	0.10
HOU	3-2	0.447	38.88	43.62	21.21	8.23	3.20	1.21
LA	3-2	0.443	19.47	31.50	15.29	5.66	2.10	0.82
MIA	1-4	0.434	1.13	3.21	1.43	0.55	0.21	0.08
NYJ	1-4	0.418	1.48	3.31	1.40	0.51	0.19	0.07
CHI	1-4	0.417	0.55	2.88	1.15	0.40	0.14	0.05
TB	2-3	0.414	7.79	11.74	4.84	1.65	0.57	0.21
CLE	0-5	0.397	0.24	0.62	0.24	0.08	0.03	0.01

2016 World Series Projection, October 11

Chicago over Cleveland

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-2 CHC
LAD 1-2 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	85.14	57.04	41.60
WAS	0.6018	79.14	30.42	17.85
CLE	0.5648	100.00	50.87	17.69
TOR	0.5609	100.00	49.13	16.70
LAD	0.5596	20.86	6.26	3.08
SF	0.5583	14.86	6.28	3.08

The ALCS is all set, and I've got Cleveland just barely favored in it. They'll have homefield advantage too, so their numbers should look slightly more favorable. In the NL, both series are now 2-1, and either could end tonight, but it will take a road victory in each case. Otherwise the series goes back to Chicago/Washington for game 5 on Thursday. Due to the AL sweeps, we'll have at least one game-free day in the early rounds, which will be tomorrow.

2016-10-10

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Philadelphia didn't use their bye week to come out strong, and lost, along with Denver, leaving Minnesota the last remaining unbeaten team. I bet they didn't think they'd get to 5-11 when Teddy Bridgewater got hurt toward the end of the preseason. They might have even thought things got even worse when they traded for Sam Bradford. But here they are, atop the league. There's still plenty of time left, of course, and no one's even clinched a playoff spot. Speaking of that, while writing this I realized I neglected to track the milestones of percentage chances of making the playoffs. Typically I start tracking at 80%, then 90%, 99%, 99.9%, and so on as long as teams keep reaching more 9s without actually clinching. I've gone back and added those starting at the appropriate posts for each mark.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.616	82.06	94.40	83.13	47.90	26.85	15.09
PHI	3-1	0.605	44.71	68.97	51.13	28.17	15.18	8.36
NE	4-1	0.589	63.09	84.15	66.24	36.77	20.08	10.38
PIT	4-1	0.584	71.47	85.98	69.00	38.07	20.50	10.49
DEN	4-1	0.580	54.62	80.55	63.37	34.61	18.34	9.31
DAL	4-1	0.575	43.00	72.49	51.86	26.70	13.48	7.01
BUF	3-2	0.565	34.31	61.30	41.39	21.38	11.05	5.45
SEA	3-1	0.564	55.68	65.65	44.36	22.06	10.83	5.52
ATL	4-1	0.550	78.12	82.39	55.93	27.03	12.83	6.36
ARI	2-3	0.548	22.03	35.00	20.64	9.77	4.65	2.30
GB	3-1	0.530	14.59	53.89	31.31	14.19	6.56	3.12
SD	1-4	0.516	2.42	9.94	5.35	2.45	1.14	0.50
BAL	3-2	0.515	23.51	47.54	28.87	13.36	6.19	2.75
OAK	4-1	0.508	33.43	67.46	45.03	20.54	9.26	4.04
DET	2-3	0.489	2.81	15.77	7.76	3.19	1.34	0.58
WAS	3-2	0.486	8.95	26.68	14.13	5.86	2.44	1.05
CAR	1-3	0.485	8.98	15.51	7.53	3.06	1.27	0.55
IND	2-3	0.482	23.39	28.02	14.11	5.94	2.52	1.03
KC	2-2	0.481	9.53	25.24	13.76	5.86	2.50	1.03
TEN	2-3	0.478	23.30	28.24	14.08	5.89	2.48	1.01
NO	1-3	0.476	7.86	13.01	6.21	2.47	1.00	0.42
CIN	2-3	0.459	4.78	14.20	6.96	2.81	1.15	0.45
NYG	2-3	0.456	3.35	10.26	4.77	1.83	0.71	0.29
JAC	1-3	0.451	14.44	16.62	7.57	2.95	1.16	0.44
SF	1-4	0.448	2.80	4.36	1.86	0.68	0.26	0.10
HOU	3-2	0.447	38.87	43.62	21.21	8.22	3.20	1.21
LA	3-2	0.443	19.49	31.25	15.14	5.60	2.08	0.81
MIA	1-4	0.434	1.13	3.21	1.43	0.55	0.21	0.08
TB	1-3	0.420	5.03	7.59	3.14	1.09	0.38	0.14
NYJ	1-4	0.418	1.48	3.32	1.40	0.51	0.19	0.07
CHI	1-4	0.417	0.54	2.80	1.12	0.38	0.14	0.05
CLE	0-5	0.397	0.24	0.62	0.24	0.08	0.03	0.01

2016 World Series Projection, October 10

Chicago over Toronto

Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-2 CLE
SF 0-2 CHC
LAD 1-1 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	94.27	64.92	46.78
BOS	0.6084	16.17	9.79	4.20
WAS	0.6018	56.48	20.42	11.78
CLE	0.5648	83.83	42.65	14.43
TOR	0.5609	100.00	47.56	15.73
LAD	0.5596	43.52	12.12	5.85
SF	0.5583	5.73	2.54	1.22

We had another rainout yesterday, so Boston remains in the hunt for another day at least. Toronto eliminated Texas, strengthening the AL and knocking down the chances for the NL teams just a bit. In the NL, they caught up from their rainout, and Washington evened the series at 1 game each. They're now favored again to make the NLCS, but Chicago, with the huge strength advantage, may be the World series favorite all the way until they are elminated or win it all.

2016-10-09

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

Texas A&M wrested the #1 spot back from Tennessee by staying undefeated. There are still 6 6-0 teams, and 5 more that are also undefeated.

The big upset of the week was Navy over Houston, which brought Navy all the way up to a #18 tie with Baylor, and dragged Houston down to #9. I heard a lot of preseason talk about Houston possibly "crashing" the playoff, not being in one of the power conferences. This loss will probably keep them out, unless we get a lot of 2-loss teams at the top of those conferences.

Miami, Ohio stayed at #128, falling to 0-6. Rice is the only other winless FBS team, appropriately at #127.

1	Texas A&M	6-0
2	Michigan	6-0
3	Clemson	6-0
4	Alabama	6-0
5	Western Michigan	6-0
6	Washington	6-0
7	Tennessee	5-1
8	Ohio State	5-0
9	Houston	5-1
10	Arizona State	5-1
11	Wake Forest	5-1
12	Boise State	5-0
13	Utah	5-1
14	Nebraska	5-0
15	South Florida	5-1
16	Florida State	4-2
17	North Carolina	4-2
T-18	Navy	4-1
T-18	Baylor	5-0
20	West Virginia	4-0
21	Penn State	4-2
22	Pittsburgh	4-2
23	Virginia Tech	4-1
24	Wisconsin	4-1
25	Arkansas	4-2
26	Louisville	4-1
27	Georgia	4-2
28	NC State	4-1
29	Florida	4-1
30	San Diego State	4-1
31	Troy	4-1
32	Colorado	4-2
33	Auburn	4-2
34	Wyoming	4-2
35	Miami	4-1
36	Oklahoma State	4-2
37	Maryland	4-1
38	Tulsa	4-1
39	Air Force	4-1
40	Central Michigan	4-2
41	Ole Miss	3-2
42	Toledo	4-1
43	Memphis	4-1
44	TCU	4-2
45	Akron	4-2
46	USC	3-3
47	Iowa	4-2
48	Old Dominion	4-2
49	Middle Tennessee	4-1
50	Stanford	3-2
51	Eastern Michigan	4-2
52	Washington State	3-2
53	Appalachian State	3-2
54	Ohio	4-2
55	LSU	3-2
56	Minnesota	3-2
57	Oklahoma	3-2
58	UCLA	3-3
59	Georgia Tech	3-3
60	Southern Mississippi	4-2
61	BYU	3-3
62	California	3-3
63	Indiana	3-2
64	Kansas State	3-2
65	Texas Tech	3-2
66	Connecticut	3-3
67	Colorado State	3-3
68	Tulane	3-2
69	UCF	3-2
70	Kentucky	3-3
71	Temple	3-3
72	South Alabama	3-2
73	Cincinnati	3-3
74	Purdue	3-2
75	Duke	3-3
76	Boston College	3-3
77	Idaho	3-3
78	Hawai'i	3-3
79	Georgia Southern	3-2
80	Louisiana Tech	3-3
81	Northwestern	2-3
82	Arizona	2-4
83	Nevada	3-3
84	Army	3-2
85	Western Kentucky	3-3
86	Oregon State	2-3
87	Ball State	3-3
88	Virginia	2-3
89	North Texas	3-3
90	Kent State	2-4
91	Missouri	2-3
92	Rutgers	2-4
93	Oregon	2-4
94	Texas San Antonio	2-3
95	Louisiana Lafayette	2-3
96	SMU	2-4
97	Syracuse	2-4
98	East Carolina	2-4
99	Utah State	2-4
100	Texas State	2-3
101	Vanderbilt	2-4
102	South Carolina	2-4
103	Mississippi State	2-3
104	Michigan State	2-3
105	Texas	2-3
106	UNLV	2-4
107	Charlotte	2-4
108	New Mexico State	2-3
109	New Mexico	2-3
110	Notre Dame	2-4
111	Northern Illinois	1-5
112	Bowling Green	1-5
113	Illinois	1-4
114	Florida Intl	2-4
115	Arkansas State	1-4
116	Georgia State	1-4
117	Marshall	1-4
118	Kansas	1-4
119	Louisiana Monroe	1-4
120	Buffalo	1-4
121	Iowa State	1-5
122	Massachusetts	1-5
123	Fresno State	1-5
124	San Jose State	1-5
125	Florida Atlantic	1-5
126	UTEP	1-5
127	Rice	0-5
128	Miami (OH)	0-6

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee

2016 World Series Projection, October 9

Chicago over Cleveland

Division Series
TOR 2-0 TEX
BOS 0-2 CLE
SF 0-2 CHC
LAD 1-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	94.27	66.36	47.99
BOS	0.6084	16.17	9.95	4.29
WAS	0.6018	38.01	13.74	7.97
CLE	0.5648	83.83	43.53	14.86
TOR	0.5609	91.25	43.40	14.48
LAD	0.5596	61.99	17.26	8.40
SF	0.5583	5.73	2.64	1.28
TEX	0.5049	8.75	3.12	0.73

LA at Washington was postponed yesterday, so the only game that took place was Chicago once again beating San Francisco. Even though 8 teams are still alive, it's nearly a better bet to take Chicago than the field. Today we should have an NL makeup game, as well as the two scheduled AL games, which could end those two series and reveal the ALCS matchup.

2016-10-08

2016 World Series Projection, October 8

Chicago over Cleveland

Division Series
TOR 2-0 TEX
BOS 0-2 CLE
SF 0-1 CHC
LAD 1-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	83.70	58.92	42.61
BOS	0.6084	16.17	9.95	4.47
WAS	0.6018	38.01	14.74	8.56
CLE	0.5648	83.83	43.53	15.59
TOR	0.5609	91.25	43.40	15.20
LAD	0.5596	61.99	18.82	9.15
SF	0.5583	16.30	7.52	3.64
TEX	0.5049	8.75	3.12	0.78

Chicago didn't come out and score 10 runs in the first inning like some suspected might happen, but they kept San Francisco from scoring too, and eventually took game 1. They're now extremely favored to win the World Series, nearly 3x their next closest competitor. The Dodgers upset the Nationals, so they're now about 62% likely to win that series. Cleveland took over the AL lead with another upset of Boston. They're less likely than Toronto to make it to the ALCS, but once there, would be favored over either opponent, and are just barely ahead of Toronto's chances of winning the AL. The AL is off today, and both NLDS play game 2.

2016-10-07

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Minnesota over Denver

Not much changed last night with two 1-3 teams playing each other. Both were NFC West teams, too, so very few teams were affected much at all when Arizona beat San Francisco. I feel like there have been a disproportionate number of meaningless games on Thursdays and Mondays this season, which is unfortunate for NFL fans as there is only one game on those days.

There are enough teams now with sub-1% chances at the Superbowl that I'm going to have to start doing more and more simulations to ensure anyone with a mathematical possibility of winning it does at least one time in each run.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	3-0	0.589	57.51	78.13	61.72	34.31	18.67	10.30
MIN	4-0	0.586	78.59	90.34	76.57	42.63	23.14	12.70
DEN	4-0	0.585	67.16	87.17	74.00	42.24	23.68	12.59
SEA	3-1	0.564	51.59	65.97	46.87	24.33	12.48	6.57
PIT	3-1	0.553	49.40	71.64	53.16	28.00	14.48	7.23
NE	3-1	0.550	54.66	69.65	50.65	26.49	13.64	6.78
ARI	2-3	0.548	18.43	34.34	21.12	10.45	5.19	2.65
DAL	3-1	0.548	29.08	61.32	41.06	20.49	10.20	5.21
BUF	2-2	0.544	33.48	48.88	31.72	16.20	8.23	4.04
ATL	3-1	0.537	68.41	73.19	47.65	23.14	11.14	5.56
BAL	3-1	0.528	38.59	61.12	42.49	21.11	10.34	4.92
SD	1-3	0.521	4.98	18.71	10.88	5.22	2.54	1.19
GB	2-1	0.516	15.83	43.33	25.68	11.84	5.50	2.63
OAK	3-1	0.503	19.44	52.65	33.31	15.42	7.21	3.25
CIN	2-2	0.491	11.22	26.11	15.04	6.82	3.09	1.35
HOU	3-1	0.489	60.91	65.13	38.54	17.28	7.73	3.38
DET	1-3	0.487	3.10	11.07	5.67	2.45	1.07	0.48
CAR	1-3	0.485	12.79	18.51	9.29	3.96	1.71	0.76
KC	2-2	0.481	8.42	26.00	14.46	6.37	2.84	1.22
WAS	2-2	0.477	6.30	20.46	10.80	4.57	1.95	0.86
NO	1-3	0.476	11.19	15.56	7.67	3.21	1.35	0.59
IND	1-3	0.473	15.02	19.71	10.01	4.30	1.86	0.78
NYG	2-2	0.472	7.11	21.78	11.31	4.72	1.98	0.86
LA	3-1	0.466	27.69	44.94	25.37	10.45	4.30	1.84
MIA	1-3	0.459	5.23	10.21	5.17	2.18	0.93	0.38
JAC	1-3	0.451	13.45	16.13	7.63	3.11	1.28	0.51
NYJ	1-3	0.450	6.64	10.61	5.29	2.19	0.91	0.36
SF	1-4	0.448	2.29	4.24	1.90	0.74	0.29	0.12
TEN	1-3	0.447	10.62	14.04	6.63	2.68	1.09	0.43
CLE	0-4	0.428	0.79	2.22	1.02	0.40	0.16	0.06
CHI	1-3	0.427	2.48	6.93	3.10	1.16	0.44	0.17
TB	1-3	0.420	7.60	9.91	4.22	1.54	0.57	0.22

2016 World Series Projection, October 7

Chicago over Toronto

Division Series
TOR 1-0 TEX
BOS 0-1 CLE
SF 0-0 CHC
LAD 0-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.72	48.61	34.75
BOS	0.6084	38.25	24.16	11.26
WAS	0.6018	58.08	24.41	13.95
CLE	0.5648	61.75	33.15	12.39
TOR	0.5609	76.65	34.82	12.73
LAD	0.5596	41.92	14.02	6.70
SF	0.5583	29.28	12.96	6.16
TEX	0.5049	23.35	7.87	2.06

Toronto takes over the AL lead with a win for them and a loss by the previous leader, Boston. Chicago is of course still favored in the NL, with both of those series still 0-0. Cleveland is now favored to beat Boston to make the ALCS.

Today the NLDS begins. As a Cardinals fan, I can't root for the Cubs, so I guess it'll be the Giants in that series for me. In the Dodgers vs. Nationals, I don't feel strongly about either team, but I'll root for the Nationals since local guy Max Scherzer pitches for them.

2016-10-06

A Sports Card Info Allen and Ginter Contest Win

I'm a bit backlogged on posts for obvious reasons, but I won this card back in late August at Sports Card Info.

2016 Topps Allen and Ginter - Mini Autographs #AGA-MRY Matt Reynolds

I usually wind up just buying complete base sets of Allen and Ginter, giving me no shot at cool inserts like this one, so this was a great contest to win. Matt didn't make the Mets' Wildcard roster, but he's a young player, who I believe will still be designated as a rookie in 2017, since he played just 47 games this year.

2016 World Series Projection, October 6

Chicago over Boston

Division Series
TOR 0-0 TEX
BOS 0-0 CLE
SF 0-0 CHC
LAD 0-0 WAS

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	70.72	48.61	34.36
BOS	0.6084	58.36	37.92	17.66
WAS	0.6018	58.08	24.41	13.75
CLE	0.5648	41.64	23.17	8.66
TOR	0.5609	60.42	26.27	9.61
LAD	0.5596	41.92	14.02	6.59
SF	0.5583	29.28	12.96	6.06
TEX	0.5049	39.58	12.64	3.31

The slightly stronger Giants beat the Mets, lowering everyone else's World series chances just a bit, depending on which round they would meet the winner of the NL Wildcard game. Chicago and Boston remain on top, and I think even a 1-0 deficit by Chicago may still keep them favored to make the NLCS.

Today the American League Division Series begin. I've got Toronto and Boston favored. None of them are a team I particularly like or dislike, but I suppose I'll root for Boston for David Ortiz to keep his farewell (maybe) tour alive a little longer, and Texas just to keep the ALCS from being an all-AL East affair.

2016-10-05

2016 World Series Projection, October 5

Chicago over Boston

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 0-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	100.00	72.16	49.60	35.06
BOS	0.6084	100.00	58.36	37.92	17.64
WAS	0.6018	100.00	58.08	24.50	13.80
CLE	0.5648	100.00	41.64	23.17	8.65
TOR	0.5609	100.00	60.42	26.27	9.60
LAD	0.5596	100.00	41.92	14.10	6.63
SF	0.5583	51.92	15.20	6.73	3.14
NYM	0.5392	48.08	12.64	5.08	2.17
TEX	0.5049	100.00	39.58	12.64	3.31

I was rooting for the Orioles yesterday, but Toronto beat them in extra innings. Today's matchup is a hard one for me to pick, because the Cardinals were chasing both teams for quite awhile. I'll root for San Francisco, because I like oddities like their even-year streak of World Series wins.

2016-10-04

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 4, Final

Minnesota over Denver

Minnesota won again against New York, and there are still 3 undefeated teams, and the top two teams are both from the NFC. Thanks to the bye week, Philadelphia is a half-game behind, so Minnesota is now favored in the NFC. Denver maintains the AFC lead since last night's game was between two NFC teams.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	3-0	0.589	57.46	78.48	62.11	34.66	18.91	10.43
MIN	4-0	0.586	78.83	90.71	77.20	43.17	23.49	12.89
DEN	4-0	0.585	67.15	87.19	74.03	42.25	23.70	12.63
SEA	3-1	0.564	54.20	67.59	48.19	25.07	12.88	6.79
PIT	3-1	0.553	49.40	71.69	53.23	28.04	14.49	7.25
NE	3-1	0.550	54.55	69.41	50.41	26.37	13.57	6.75
DAL	3-1	0.548	29.04	62.09	41.66	20.85	10.40	5.31
BUF	2-2	0.544	33.39	48.59	31.50	16.09	8.17	4.02
ATL	3-1	0.537	68.37	73.29	47.94	23.35	11.27	5.63
BAL	3-1	0.528	38.59	61.17	42.55	21.14	10.37	4.93
ARI	1-3	0.526	11.06	21.61	12.52	5.90	2.80	1.37
SD	1-3	0.521	4.98	18.76	10.91	5.24	2.55	1.20
GB	2-1	0.516	15.69	43.87	26.06	12.04	5.61	2.68
OAK	3-1	0.503	19.45	52.71	33.35	15.44	7.22	3.26
CIN	2-2	0.491	11.23	26.14	15.07	6.83	3.10	1.36
HOU	3-1	0.489	60.92	65.15	38.58	17.30	7.74	3.39
DET	1-3	0.487	3.07	11.27	5.80	2.51	1.10	0.49
CAR	1-3	0.485	12.98	18.99	9.59	4.10	1.77	0.79
KC	2-2	0.481	8.42	26.05	14.48	6.39	2.85	1.23
WAS	2-2	0.477	6.40	21.05	11.15	4.73	2.03	0.89
NO	1-3	0.476	11.18	15.67	7.77	3.25	1.38	0.61
IND	1-3	0.473	15.02	19.73	10.02	4.30	1.86	0.78
NYG	2-2	0.472	7.09	22.20	11.57	4.84	2.04	0.89
SF	1-3	0.468	6.22	10.88	5.32	2.19	0.92	0.40
LA	3-1	0.466	28.52	45.46	25.72	10.62	4.37	1.87
MIA	1-3	0.459	5.31	10.29	5.21	2.20	0.93	0.38
JAC	1-3	0.451	13.45	16.15	7.65	3.12	1.28	0.51
NYJ	1-3	0.450	6.75	10.71	5.34	2.21	0.92	0.37
TEN	1-3	0.447	10.62	14.05	6.64	2.68	1.09	0.43
CLE	0-4	0.428	0.79	2.23	1.02	0.40	0.16	0.06
CHI	1-3	0.427	2.41	6.99	3.15	1.18	0.45	0.18
TB	1-3	0.420	7.47	9.86	4.23	1.54	0.57	0.22

2016-10-03

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Philadelphia over Denver

Have we always had byes in Week 4 since the NFL went back to an even number of teams in 2002? Maybe it's just more noticeable when an undefeated team gets the bye. Despite being "only" 3-0, Philadelphia remains atop the NFC. In the AFC, Bill Belichick has been shown to not necessarily be a magical wizard, as New England finally lost one of the 4 games for which Tom Brady was suspended. The only undefeated AFC team, Denver, has taken over the top spot, with just about a 1 in 4 chance at winning the conference. Since I mentioned the first two, I guess I should mention the third undefeated team: Minnesota tries to stay in that group tonight.

The Rams are inexplicably 3-1, despite having a negative point differential. It's because the one loss was so big, but still, it looks weird to see a team down that low in strength be 3-1. I still have them with very slim chances of winning the division, but they're tied at the top of it for now, so who knows.

At the bottom of the league, Cleveland is 0-4, but Chicago remains ranked below them in strength, and Tampa has overtaken (undertaken?) them both to be the weakest team now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	3-0	0.589	53.70	76.90	61.22	34.54	19.27	10.63
DEN	4-0	0.585	67.17	87.24	74.07	42.28	23.71	12.84
SEA	3-1	0.564	54.38	66.97	48.83	25.91	13.57	7.15
MIN	3-0	0.557	68.18	80.50	63.25	33.35	17.19	8.92
PIT	3-1	0.553	49.41	71.40	52.92	27.88	14.42	7.34
NE	3-1	0.550	54.55	69.49	50.50	26.41	13.60	6.89
DAL	3-1	0.548	26.88	60.58	41.06	20.87	10.65	5.44
BUF	2-2	0.544	33.39	48.68	31.58	16.14	8.20	4.11
ATL	3-1	0.537	68.38	72.99	48.80	24.26	11.95	5.97
BAL	3-1	0.528	38.58	60.83	42.22	20.98	10.29	4.99
ARI	1-3	0.526	11.34	21.42	12.74	6.16	2.97	1.45
SD	1-3	0.521	4.98	18.81	10.94	5.25	2.56	1.22
GB	2-1	0.516	22.97	44.63	27.81	13.21	6.24	2.98
NYG	2-1	0.505	13.57	38.02	22.83	10.51	4.87	2.28
OAK	3-1	0.503	19.44	52.79	33.38	15.45	7.23	3.33
CIN	2-2	0.491	11.22	25.85	14.88	6.75	3.06	1.37
HOU	3-1	0.489	61.02	65.39	38.89	17.45	7.80	3.48
DET	1-3	0.487	4.86	11.97	6.37	2.83	1.26	0.56
CAR	1-3	0.485	12.98	18.46	9.52	4.18	1.85	0.83
KC	2-2	0.481	8.42	26.13	14.53	6.40	2.86	1.25
WAS	2-2	0.477	5.86	20.30	10.95	4.74	2.08	0.91
NO	1-3	0.476	11.18	15.31	7.77	3.35	1.44	0.63
IND	1-3	0.473	15.07	19.94	10.17	4.36	1.88	0.81
SF	1-3	0.468	6.24	10.49	5.29	2.24	0.96	0.41
LA	3-1	0.466	28.04	44.05	25.74	10.88	4.58	1.96
MIA	1-3	0.459	5.31	10.31	5.23	2.21	0.94	0.39
JAC	1-3	0.451	13.49	16.29	7.73	3.15	1.29	0.53
NYJ	1-3	0.450	6.75	10.73	5.36	2.22	0.92	0.38
TEN	1-3	0.447	10.42	13.92	6.59	2.66	1.08	0.44
CLE	0-4	0.428	0.79	2.18	1.00	0.39	0.15	0.06
CHI	1-3	0.427	3.99	7.74	3.60	1.39	0.53	0.21
TB	1-3	0.420	7.46	9.65	4.21	1.59	0.60	0.23

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England

2016 World Series Projection, October 3

Chicago over Boston

Wildcard Round
BAL 0-0 TOR
SF 0-0 NYM

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
CHC	0.6682	100.00	72.16	49.60	35.33
BOS	0.6084	100.00	58.36	39.36	18.31
WAS	0.6018	100.00	58.08	24.50	13.97
CLE	0.5648	100.00	41.64	24.28	9.06
TOR	0.5609	54.25	32.78	14.25	5.21
LAD	0.5596	100.00	41.92	14.10	6.74
SF	0.5583	51.92	15.20	6.73	3.20
NYM	0.5392	48.08	12.64	5.08	2.20
BAL	0.5186	45.75	24.05	8.33	2.38
TEX	0.5049	100.00	43.17	13.79	3.61

I definitely started taking Cardinals playoff appearances for granted, as I wasn't really the least bit worried about them making a wildcard spot until they were down 3-0 in the second to last game of the season. Part of that is because we resigned ourselves to losing the division long ago due to the Cubs amazing success this year, but also because the playoffs have been a given since 2011. So for the next month I'll turn my attention to the 10 teams that made it. The Cubs have a fairly large chance out of the gate, nearly 50% likely to win the NL and 35% likely to win the World Series. It's so high I had to double-check my software and make sure I didn't have something hanging around from last year, like having one or more of their series with some games already marked as wins for them.

I should point out that Texas, the #1 seed in the AL, is the weakest playoff team by my metric, essentially Runs Scored over Runs Allowed.

I'll also throw in the usual caveats, that I don't take home field into account, nor that day's starting pitcher, so it's possible the wildcard teams will have a rougher time making the LCS than I show, having burned their #1 starter in the opening game. I plan to add in home field for next year, and hopefully get my NHL and MLB software to be the same code, just configured differently.

2016-10-02

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

Texas A&M won but Tennessee, Michigan, and Clemson all beat a much stronger opponent (Georgia, Wisconsin, and Louisville vs South Carolina), Texas A&M drops to #4 while Tennessee takes over the #1 spot

Optimistic Missouri fans thought they got LSU at just the right time. The coach was fired, and their star running back was out. The result: a loss by 5 touchdowns. I don't think they're going bowling this year.

My bottom team won again, as Florida International got their first win. Now Miami Ohio is #128, 0-5 nearly halfway through their seasion.

1	Tennessee	5-0
2	Michigan	5-0
3	Clemson	5-0
4	Texas A&M	5-0
5	Western Michigan	5-0
6	Alabama	5-0
7	Washington	5-0
8	Houston	5-0
9	Nebraska	5-0
10	North Carolina	4-1
11	Baylor	5-0
12	West Virginia	4-0
13	Wake Forest	4-1
14	Ohio State	4-0
15	Wisconsin	4-1
16	Miami	4-0
17	Arkansas	4-1
18	Louisville	4-1
19	Boise State	4-0
20	Troy	4-1
21	Florida	4-1
22	Utah	4-1
23	South Florida	4-1
24	Colorado	4-1
25	Arizona State	4-1
26	Maryland	4-0
27	Air Force	4-0
28	Florida State	3-2
29	Ole Miss	3-2
30	Southern Mississippi	4-1
31	Stanford	3-1
32	Middle Tennessee	4-1
33	Eastern Michigan	4-1
34	Georgia Tech	3-2
35	Pittsburgh	3-2
36	Virginia Tech	3-1
37	Penn State	3-2
38	Georgia	3-2
39	California	3-2
40	LSU	3-2
41	Navy	3-1
42	San Diego State	3-1
43	NC State	3-1
44	UCLA	3-2
45	Appalachian State	3-2
46	Minnesota	3-1
47	Texas Tech	3-1
48	Georgia Southern	3-1
49	Indiana	3-1
50	Oklahoma State	3-2
51	Auburn	3-2
52	Tulsa	3-1
53	Central Michigan	3-2
54	South Alabama	3-2
55	Tulane	3-2
56	Boston College	3-2
57	Memphis	3-1
58	UCF	3-2
59	Temple	3-2
60	TCU	3-2
61	Cincinnati	3-2
62	Akron	3-2
63	Wyoming	3-2
64	Ohio	3-2
65	Army	3-1
66	Iowa	3-2
66	Old Dominion	3-2
68	Western Kentucky	3-2
69	Toledo	3-1
70	USC	2-3
71	Oklahoma	2-2
72	BYU	2-3
73	Washington State	2-2
74	Arizona	2-3
75	Vanderbilt	2-3
76	Kentucky	2-3
77	Texas State	2-2
78	Kansas State	2-2
79	Northwestern	2-3
80	Ball State	3-2
81	Louisiana Lafayette	2-3
82	Missouri	2-3
83	Mississippi State	2-2
84	Colorado State	2-3
85	Idaho	2-3
86	SMU	2-3
87	South Carolina	2-3
88	Hawai'i	2-3
89	Michigan State	2-2
90	Purdue	2-2
91	Texas	2-2
92	East Carolina	2-3
93	Oregon	2-3
94	Rutgers	2-3
95	Louisiana Tech	2-3
96	Virginia	2-3
97	Duke	2-3
98	Connecticut	2-3
99	Syracuse	2-3
100	Utah State	2-3
101	New Mexico State	2-3
102	UNLV	2-3
103	Nevada	2-3
104	North Texas	2-3
105	New Mexico	2-2
106	Notre Dame	2-3
107	Illinois	1-3
108	Bowling Green	1-4
109	Oregon State	1-3
110	Kent State	1-4
111	Marshall	1-3
112	Northern Illinois	1-4
113	Buffalo	1-3
114	Louisiana Monroe	1-3
115	Charlotte	1-4
116	Kansas	1-3
117	Texas San Antonio	1-3
118	Massachusetts	1-4
119	Iowa State	1-4
120	UTEP	1-4
121	Fresno State	1-4
122	Florida Intl	1-4
123	San Jose State	1-4
124	Florida Atlantic	1-4
125	Georgia State	0-4
126	Arkansas State	0-4
127	Rice	0-5
128	Miami (OH)	0-5

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M