Tenets of Wilson

2024-11-18

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

I wasn't looking ahead very much last week and didn't realize Buffalo and Kansas City were playing this week. Those two have been jockeying for the top spot in my AFC projections for awhile now, and Buffalo came out on top. By virtue of their 9-1 record, Kansas City is still 32% likely to be the #1 seed, but Buffalo is up around 39%. In the NFC, Detroit decided to run up the score, which my projections reward handsomely, and I now have them over 1 in 3 to win the NFC, and 64% likely to be the #1 seed.

On the other end of things, I usually do a shorter run before the full 2 billion simulations, just to make sure thing seem to make sense, and I kept coming up with the NY Giants eliminated from the division. They are not yet eliminated, but we needed a lot more runs to stumble into a time they actually won the division. I keep less-rounded output from these runs, but I may also need to start outputting my raw numbers, because I don't know exactly how infrequent it happened, but it was less than 0.0000005%, which rounded to 0.00000000 in my output.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	9-1	0.718	79.5	99.8	88.6	56.6	35.3	21.1
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	74.9	43.2	24.3	12.8
PHI	8-2	0.647	81.6	99.3	66.7	37.6	18.4	9.5
LAC	7-3	0.662	20.8	97.9	60.6	33.1	18.0	9.2
PIT	8-2	0.645	88.0	99.5	65.8	35.4	18.4	9.1
MIN	8-2	0.645	17.5	96.7	64.7	33.1	16.6	8.5
KC	9-1	0.596	78.1	99.9	67.6	32.5	14.8	6.6
WSH	7-4	0.610	18.3	92.0	52.7	24.6	11.3	5.4
BAL	7-4	0.598	11.9	90.8	44.8	20.8	9.7	4.3
DEN	6-5	0.615	1.1	72.2	35.6	17.1	8.4	3.9
GB	7-3	0.569	2.9	79.2	39.5	15.8	6.8	3.0
ARI	6-4	0.534	65.9	69.0	28.8	11.7	4.4	1.8
HOU	6-4	0.496	91.2	93.4	35.3	12.7	4.6	1.6
TB	4-6	0.521	27.3	33.6	13.3	5.0	1.9	0.7
ATL	6-5	0.445	66.6	68.2	22.0	7.0	2.1	0.7
SF	5-5	0.552	11.1	20.2	8.7	3.5	1.4	0.6
IND	5-6	0.472	8.3	30.2	10.4	3.5	1.2	0.4
SEA	5-5	0.485	13.5	18.8	6.9	2.4	0.8	0.3
NO	4-7	0.504	5.7	8.0	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	5-5	0.450	9.4	11.9	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	4-6	0.415	0.0	10.0	2.9	0.8	0.3	0.1
CHI	4-6	0.516	0.0	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-8	0.332	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-8	0.360	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-8	0.335	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-8	0.336	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

2024-11-15

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Philadelphia and Washington was a pretty evenly matched game between two good teams, and I thought the winner might take over the NFC. Philadelphia didn't quite get there after their win, but they're the 2nd most likely NFC Super Bowl representative now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.3	99.1	81.1	48.0	27.5	15.1
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.7	39.1	21.6	11.7
PHI	8-2	0.647	82.0	99.2	70.7	40.4	21.5	11.3
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.6	42.7	20.8	10.2
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.8	58.3	31.8	17.5	9.4
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.5	98.4	61.9	32.8	17.2	8.9
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.5	93.1	58.9	30.1	15.3	7.7
WSH	7-4	0.610	17.9	90.8	52.6	25.9	12.7	6.2
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.4	49.6	23.4	11.2	5.3
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.8	33.3	14.4	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	61.5	67.9	29.1	12.1	5.0	2.1
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.1	94.7	36.3	13.3	5.0	1.9
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.3	83.9	33.5	13.0	4.9	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	53.8	22.8	9.6	4.1	1.7
SF	5-4	0.555	25.9	40.5	18.4	7.9	3.5	1.5
TB	4-6	0.521	16.2	27.8	11.4	4.5	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.4	28.0	9.8	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.2	6.8	2.6	1.0	0.4
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.7	3.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	7.0	10.9	4.1	1.4	0.5	0.2
LAR	4-5	0.438	5.6	7.7	2.6	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	3-7	0.465	1.4	2.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	3-6	0.383	0.0	6.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.389	0.7	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

2024-11-12

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Games like Miami vs the LA Rams are going to lead to flex scheduling for Mondays eventually. Miami is essentially eliminated from the playoffs already, and LA had a slight chance, but Miami managed to win the game 23-15 and now they're both likely done for the year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.3	99.1	81.7	48.2	27.8	15.3
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.7	39.1	21.6	11.8
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.5	42.7	20.8	10.3
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.8	58.3	31.8	17.5	9.5
PHI	7-2	0.633	58.0	96.6	63.5	34.5	17.8	9.1
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.6	98.4	62.0	32.9	17.2	9.0
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.5	93.0	59.2	30.4	15.5	7.8
WSH	7-3	0.620	42.0	94.9	59.6	31.0	15.5	7.7
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.5	49.6	23.5	11.2	5.4
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.4	33.3	14.5	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	61.5	68.0	29.0	12.2	5.0	2.1
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.1	94.7	36.2	13.3	5.0	1.9
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.1	83.7	33.2	13.0	5.0	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	53.8	22.8	9.6	4.1	1.7
SF	5-4	0.555	25.9	40.2	18.3	7.9	3.5	1.5
TB	4-6	0.521	16.3	27.2	11.2	4.4	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.4	27.9	9.7	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.1	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.7	3.3	1.3	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	7.0	10.9	4.0	1.5	0.5	0.2
LAR	4-5	0.438	5.6	7.9	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1
NO	3-7	0.465	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	3-6	0.383	0.0	6.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.389	0.7	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-11-11

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Kansas City stayed undefeated by winning their game against Denver, but so narrowly that Buffalo passed them and is now the AFC favorite again. They were really one play away from losing, but as Denver was lining up the clock for their last-second field goal, I texted a friend that surely they would shank it, because I refuse to believe Kansas City can be stopped. Sure enough, it was a good kick (I think) but not quite high enough to avoid being blocked.

Also, here's my annual reminder that showing 100.0% chance at the playoffs is rounded from 99.95%+, whereas an actual clinch will display a plus (+), similar to how 0.0 is rounded down from below 0.05%, and an elimination will show a minus (-).

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.2	99.0	81.8	48.3	27.9	15.4
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.4	38.9	21.5	11.7
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.5	42.7	20.8	10.3
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.9	58.4	31.8	17.5	9.5
PHI	7-2	0.633	57.9	96.2	63.2	34.4	17.8	9.1
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.6	98.5	62.0	32.9	17.2	9.0
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.4	92.4	59.0	30.3	15.5	7.8
WSH	7-3	0.620	42.1	94.7	59.6	31.0	15.6	7.7
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.8	49.7	23.5	11.2	5.4
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.1	33.3	14.4	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	58.5	65.5	28.1	11.8	4.9	2.0
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.2	83.6	33.2	13.0	5.0	1.9
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.2	94.9	36.3	13.3	5.0	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	55.2	23.4	9.8	4.2	1.8
SF	5-4	0.555	24.2	38.2	17.4	7.5	3.3	1.4
TB	4-6	0.521	16.3	26.7	11.0	4.4	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.3	28.2	9.8	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.7	7.0	2.7	1.1	0.4
LAR	4-4	0.454	11.1	16.0	5.6	1.9	0.7	0.2
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.4	3.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	6.3	10.0	3.7	1.3	0.5	0.2
NO	3-7	0.465	1.3	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.2	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.372	0.0	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.388	0.6	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-11-08

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Detroit over Kansas City

On Thursday morning a friend of mine sent me a graphic with the AFC playoff chances for each team, and asked how mine stacked up. They had Baltimore way overrated (or I had them underrated), and were a bit more certain on the teams towards the 100% and 0% end. When they were losing to Cincinnati pretty deep into the game, I felt like my numbers would be justified, but alas they won by a point. I still don't have them up in the 99% range, but they got out of the 80s at least.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	7-1	0.660	70.2	97.4	77.6	46.4	27.3	15.1
BUF	7-2	0.644	99.1	99.6	65.6	36.6	20.0	10.9
KC	8-0	0.606	83.2	99.7	78.8	40.9	20.1	10.2
WSH	7-2	0.621	62.3	96.3	66.9	36.9	19.3	9.9
PIT	6-2	0.639	61.5	96.0	60.8	33.1	17.8	9.6
LAC	5-3	0.639	13.6	90.2	52.9	28.4	15.4	8.3
MIN	6-2	0.608	21.4	85.2	53.1	27.3	14.0	7.0
BAL	7-3	0.597	38.1	94.9	50.4	24.6	12.0	6.0
PHI	6-2	0.584	37.3	87.2	52.0	25.8	12.4	5.8
GB	6-3	0.566	6.3	62.8	32.8	15.0	7.0	3.2
ATL	6-3	0.509	83.0	86.9	39.1	16.3	6.6	2.6
HOU	6-3	0.502	89.7	93.7	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.4
DEN	5-4	0.550	3.2	60.9	27.4	11.9	5.2	2.3
SF	4-4	0.550	25.6	33.5	15.6	7.0	3.1	1.4
TB	4-5	0.525	16.5	38.4	17.3	7.2	3.1	1.3
ARI	5-4	0.487	46.7	51.7	20.5	8.0	3.1	1.2
CHI	4-4	0.552	2.1	21.8	10.7	4.8	2.2	1.0
IND	4-5	0.490	8.5	33.9	13.1	4.9	1.9	0.7
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.4	13.7	5.6	2.2	0.9	0.4
LAR	4-4	0.454	18.1	22.3	8.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
SEA	4-5	0.480	9.7	12.9	5.0	1.9	0.7	0.3
NYJ	3-6	0.473	0.8	10.2	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
DAL	3-5	0.408	0.4	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
NO	2-7	0.460	0.5	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-7	0.403	0.8	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.371	0.0	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-6	0.369	1.0	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.350	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.366	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	2-7	0.295	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City

2024-11-05

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 9, Final

Detroit over Kansas City

Kansas City's Monday night victory moved them every so slightly ahead of Buffalo. The actual chances for them to win the AFC is 20.267% vs Buffalo's 20.256%. Buffalo appears higher here because I sort on the Super Bowl winning chances.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	7-1	0.660	70.2	97.4	77.6	46.4	27.3	15.1
BUF	7-2	0.644	99.1	99.6	66.2	37.0	20.3	11.0
KC	8-0	0.605	83.2	99.7	79.0	41.1	20.3	10.2
WSH	7-2	0.621	62.3	96.3	66.9	36.9	19.3	9.9
PIT	6-2	0.638	66.3	95.5	60.6	33.1	17.9	9.6
LAC	5-3	0.639	13.6	89.7	52.8	28.5	15.4	8.3
MIN	6-2	0.608	21.4	85.2	53.1	27.3	14.0	7.0
PHI	6-2	0.584	37.3	87.2	52.0	25.7	12.4	5.8
BAL	6-3	0.597	30.8	86.9	45.6	22.2	10.9	5.4
GB	6-3	0.566	6.3	62.7	32.8	15.0	7.0	3.2
ATL	6-3	0.509	83.0	86.9	39.1	16.3	6.6	2.6
HOU	6-3	0.502	89.7	93.6	39.9	15.3	6.0	2.4
DEN	5-4	0.550	3.2	59.3	26.9	11.7	5.1	2.3
SF	4-4	0.550	25.6	33.5	15.6	7.0	3.1	1.4
TB	4-5	0.525	16.5	38.4	17.3	7.3	3.1	1.3
ARI	5-4	0.487	46.7	51.7	20.5	8.0	3.1	1.2
CHI	4-4	0.552	2.1	21.8	10.7	4.8	2.2	1.0
IND	4-5	0.490	8.5	34.1	13.3	5.0	1.9	0.7
CIN	4-5	0.515	2.9	23.9	9.9	4.0	1.6	0.7
LAR	4-4	0.454	18.1	22.3	8.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
SEA	4-5	0.480	9.7	12.9	5.0	1.9	0.7	0.3
NYJ	3-6	0.473	0.8	10.5	3.9	1.4	0.5	0.2
DAL	3-5	0.409	0.4	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
NO	2-7	0.460	0.5	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-7	0.403	0.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.371	0.0	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-6	0.369	1.0	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.350	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.366	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	2-7	0.295	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-11-04

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

The top teams won again, so Detroit and Buffalo remain the favorites. Kansas City still plays on Monday, and Pittsburgh has a bye this week, so Buffalo only moved up slightly in the AFC, but Detroit is running away with the NFC for now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	7-1	0.660	70.2	97.1	77.2	46.2	27.1	15.1
BUF	7-2	0.644	99.2	99.6	67.9	38.1	20.9	11.4
PIT	6-2	0.638	66.4	95.5	61.9	34.1	18.4	9.9
WSH	7-2	0.621	62.3	95.8	66.4	36.6	19.2	9.8
KC	7-0	0.597	76.7	99.2	73.6	37.5	18.1	9.0
LAC	5-3	0.639	18.7	89.7	53.3	28.9	15.7	8.5
MIN	6-2	0.608	21.4	84.1	52.3	26.9	13.8	6.9
PHI	6-2	0.584	37.3	86.2	51.2	25.4	12.2	5.8
BAL	6-3	0.597	30.7	86.9	46.2	22.6	11.1	5.5
GB	6-3	0.566	6.3	60.4	31.5	14.4	6.8	3.1
ATL	6-3	0.509	74.9	82.8	37.5	15.6	6.3	2.5
HOU	6-3	0.502	89.7	93.6	40.7	15.8	6.1	2.5
DEN	5-4	0.550	4.7	59.8	27.2	11.9	5.3	2.4
TB	4-4	0.534	24.7	50.9	24.0	10.3	4.5	1.9
SF	4-4	0.550	25.5	32.8	15.2	6.9	3.1	1.4
ARI	5-4	0.487	46.7	51.3	20.4	8.0	3.1	1.2
CHI	4-4	0.552	2.1	20.6	10.2	4.5	2.1	0.9
IND	4-5	0.490	8.4	34.2	13.4	5.1	1.9	0.8
CIN	4-5	0.515	2.9	23.8	9.9	4.0	1.7	0.7
LAR	4-4	0.454	18.1	22.0	8.0	2.9	1.0	0.4
SEA	4-5	0.480	9.7	12.7	4.9	1.9	0.7	0.3
NYJ	3-6	0.473	0.8	10.5	3.9	1.4	0.5	0.2
DAL	3-5	0.409	0.4	2.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-7	0.403	0.8	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	2-7	0.460	0.4	0.9	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.371	0.0	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-6	0.369	1.0	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.350	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.366	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	2-7	0.295	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-11-01

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Houston lost to the New York Jets, which didn't change the projection, but did highlight some somewhat odd situations. In the AFC East, Buffalo's playoff and division winning chances were barely touched by the second place Jets win, because they still have a 3.5 game lead on them. For Houston, at 6-3 and leading the AFC South, I'd expect them to be higher up the chart, but their point differential is down to a +1 for the year, which means on average my model expects them to be about a .500 team the rest of the way. On another note, I forgot to start listing the first time certain playoff thresholds were reached, so I'll go back and edit those into the last two posts. I think I'll start at 99% playoff odds, because 80% and 90% just aren't that interesting.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-1	0.640	53.2	91.2	68.3	39.5	22.6	12.2
BUF	6-2	0.639	98.0	98.8	65.9	37.0	20.3	11.2
PIT	6-2	0.638	78.3	95.9	64.3	36.0	19.7	10.9
WSH	6-2	0.612	59.9	92.0	64.2	35.0	18.6	9.4
KC	7-0	0.597	72.6	99.0	72.9	37.5	18.4	9.4
DEN	5-3	0.617	15.5	83.3	47.3	24.7	12.9	6.8
LAC	4-3	0.604	11.9	79.6	43.5	21.9	11.1	5.7
MIN	5-2	0.591	18.7	72.6	44.2	22.4	11.3	5.5
PHI	5-2	0.576	38.5	79.5	47.7	23.7	11.6	5.5
GB	6-2	0.581	19.4	71.0	41.9	20.8	10.3	4.9
CHI	4-3	0.590	8.7	43.7	25.0	12.6	6.4	3.1
BAL	5-3	0.551	19.4	65.8	31.0	13.9	6.2	2.9
HOU	6-3	0.502	85.0	91.9	41.7	16.4	6.5	2.7
TB	4-4	0.534	33.3	53.6	25.8	11.6	5.2	2.2
ATL	5-3	0.498	64.2	71.6	31.9	13.3	5.4	2.1
SF	4-4	0.550	32.5	38.0	18.0	8.4	3.9	1.7
IND	4-4	0.506	13.2	46.2	19.4	7.7	3.1	1.3
SEA	4-4	0.491	24.6	28.8	11.8	4.8	1.9	0.8
ARI	4-4	0.451	29.1	31.6	11.6	4.3	1.6	0.5
CIN	3-5	0.486	2.2	13.7	5.4	2.1	0.8	0.3
LAR	3-4	0.443	13.9	15.9	5.7	2.1	0.7	0.3
NYJ	3-6	0.473	1.4	12.5	4.7	1.7	0.7	0.3
NO	2-6	0.463	2.4	4.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
DAL	3-4	0.419	1.5	5.9	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAX	2-6	0.412	1.2	3.9	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-5	0.373	0.4	4.1	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
CLE	2-6	0.402	0.1	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	2-6	0.380	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	1-6	0.371	0.6	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.359	0.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.373	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.306	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-29

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

I thought for sure Pittsburgh would take back the AFC lead, but they only won by 8 and couldn't quite pass Buffalo in either strength or playoff chances, so the projection stays the same for now. Pittsburgh is off next week, but I could see them or Kansas City taking over the lead if Buffalo were to lose to Miami.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-1	0.640	52.9	91.1	68.1	39.4	22.6	12.2
BUF	6-2	0.639	98.7	99.1	65.2	36.5	20.1	11.1
PIT	6-2	0.638	78.4	95.9	63.1	35.2	19.3	10.6
WSH	6-2	0.612	60.0	92.0	64.2	35.1	18.6	9.5
KC	7-0	0.597	72.4	99.0	71.4	36.6	18.0	9.2
DEN	5-3	0.617	15.5	83.2	46.4	24.2	12.6	6.7
LAC	4-3	0.604	12.0	80.1	42.9	21.7	11.0	5.7
MIN	5-2	0.591	18.8	72.5	44.2	22.4	11.3	5.5
PHI	5-2	0.576	38.5	79.5	47.7	23.8	11.6	5.5
GB	6-2	0.581	19.5	71.0	41.9	20.8	10.3	4.9
HOU	6-2	0.517	90.9	95.9	49.0	20.1	8.2	3.5
CHI	4-3	0.590	8.8	43.7	25.0	12.6	6.4	3.1
BAL	5-3	0.551	19.3	65.9	30.8	13.8	6.2	2.9
TB	4-4	0.534	33.4	53.6	25.8	11.6	5.2	2.2
ATL	5-3	0.498	64.2	71.6	31.9	13.3	5.4	2.1
SF	4-4	0.550	32.2	37.8	17.9	8.4	3.8	1.7
IND	4-4	0.506	8.1	47.1	19.6	7.9	3.2	1.3
SEA	4-4	0.491	24.7	28.9	11.9	4.8	1.9	0.8
ARI	4-4	0.451	29.2	31.8	11.7	4.3	1.6	0.6
CIN	3-5	0.486	2.2	14.1	5.6	2.1	0.8	0.3
LAR	3-4	0.443	14.0	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
NYJ	2-6	0.457	0.7	6.4	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	2-6	0.463	2.4	4.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
DAL	3-4	0.419	1.5	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAX	2-6	0.412	0.7	3.7	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-5	0.373	0.4	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
CLE	2-6	0.402	0.1	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	2-6	0.380	0.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	1-6	0.371	0.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.359	0.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.373	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.306	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-28

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit won to stay on top of the NFC, and is now the most likely Super Bowl winner. In the AFC, Kansas City and Buffalo won, with Pittsburgh yet to play, and Buffalo takes the AFC lead. Kansas City is undefeated, but keeps turning in narrow victories. If they can keep doing that, they'll become the #1 seed, but as it stands my simulation isn't as confident in them continuing to win as Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-1	0.640	52.9	91.1	68.1	39.4	22.6	12.3
BUF	6-2	0.639	98.7	99.1	65.8	37.2	20.6	11.4
WSH	6-2	0.612	59.9	92.0	64.2	35.1	18.6	9.5
KC	7-0	0.597	72.7	99.1	72.4	37.3	18.6	9.5
PIT	5-2	0.624	72.9	93.0	58.1	31.4	16.8	9.0
DEN	5-3	0.617	15.4	83.4	47.0	24.7	13.0	6.9
LAC	4-3	0.604	11.9	80.2	43.4	22.1	11.3	5.8
MIN	5-2	0.591	18.8	72.6	44.2	22.4	11.4	5.6
PHI	5-2	0.576	38.5	79.5	47.7	23.8	11.6	5.5
GB	6-2	0.581	19.5	71.0	41.9	20.8	10.3	5.0
HOU	6-2	0.517	91.0	96.0	49.4	20.5	8.4	3.6
CHI	4-3	0.590	8.8	43.7	25.0	12.6	6.4	3.1
BAL	5-3	0.551	23.9	66.8	31.5	14.2	6.4	3.0
TB	4-4	0.534	33.4	53.3	25.7	11.5	5.1	2.2
ATL	5-3	0.498	64.1	71.5	31.8	13.3	5.4	2.2
SF	4-4	0.550	32.2	37.8	17.9	8.4	3.8	1.7
IND	4-4	0.506	8.0	47.3	19.9	8.1	3.3	1.4
SEA	4-4	0.491	24.7	28.9	11.9	4.8	1.9	0.8
ARI	4-4	0.451	29.2	31.8	11.7	4.3	1.6	0.6
CIN	3-5	0.486	3.0	15.1	6.0	2.3	0.9	0.4
LAR	3-4	0.443	14.0	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
NYJ	2-6	0.457	0.7	6.4	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	2-6	0.463	2.4	4.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
DAL	3-4	0.419	1.5	5.7	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAX	2-6	0.412	0.7	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-5	0.373	0.4	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
CLE	2-6	0.402	0.2	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	2-6	0.380	0.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	1-6	0.371	0.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.359	0.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.306	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-25

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Pittsburgh over Detroit

Minnesota took their slight lead and threw it into the garbage on Thursday night. Detroit is now your NFC leader. It will be interesting to see if Kansas City can take back over the AFC lead on Sunday, with Pittsburgh not playing until Monday night. Both are pretty likely to win, playing teams that are 2-5. I give Pittsburgh a 62% chance of a win, and Kansas City is a bit over 58%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	5-2	0.624	59.7	91.9	60.8	34.3	19.2	10.6
KC	6-0	0.584	75.0	97.3	71.9	37.6	19.1	9.8
BUF	5-2	0.606	94.4	96.5	60.4	32.8	17.5	9.4
DET	5-1	0.597	39.7	84.4	58.5	31.5	16.9	8.8
WSH	5-2	0.601	61.8	83.9	56.1	30.8	16.6	8.7
MIN	5-2	0.590	23.6	74.6	47.2	24.9	13.1	6.7
DEN	4-3	0.590	16.0	71.5	39.7	20.4	10.5	5.5
CHI	4-2	0.591	17.2	60.6	37.9	19.9	10.5	5.4
GB	5-2	0.577	19.5	66.5	40.1	20.5	10.5	5.2
BAL	5-2	0.557	35.2	78.9	42.1	20.3	9.7	4.7
TB	4-3	0.542	55.3	71.5	38.9	18.5	8.7	4.0
PHI	4-2	0.540	33.0	64.7	35.4	16.8	7.9	3.6
HOU	5-2	0.511	71.9	86.4	44.1	18.9	8.1	3.6
LAC	3-3	0.562	8.8	58.1	29.6	14.3	6.9	3.4
IND	4-3	0.512	25.0	59.6	27.5	11.8	5.1	2.3
SEA	4-3	0.528	42.6	48.6	23.3	10.7	4.9	2.2
ATL	4-3	0.489	39.2	51.8	23.4	9.9	4.1	1.7
SF	3-4	0.539	23.9	29.8	14.4	6.8	3.2	1.5
CIN	3-4	0.521	5.0	26.3	11.9	5.3	2.4	1.1
ARI	3-4	0.449	19.8	22.4	8.6	3.3	1.2	0.5
NO	2-5	0.495	5.3	10.4	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.3
NYJ	2-5	0.462	3.9	14.1	5.5	2.1	0.8	0.3
LAR	3-4	0.443	13.7	16.4	6.2	2.3	0.9	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	5.1	13.3	5.2	1.9	0.7	0.2
JAX	2-5	0.416	1.8	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	2-4	0.373	1.5	6.7	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
TEN	1-5	0.425	1.4	3.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
LV	2-5	0.392	0.1	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	1-6	0.391	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-6	0.358	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.330	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota

2024-10-22

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 7, Final

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

Despite two Monday games, no one took over the AFC or NFC, and the projection remains. The LA Chargers were riding high earlier in the season, but lost to Arizona. Baltimore won but allowed 31 points, so they didn't rise too high up the ranks either.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	5-2	0.624	59.7	91.9	60.8	34.3	19.2	10.6
KC	6-0	0.584	75.0	97.3	71.9	37.6	19.1	9.7
BUF	5-2	0.606	94.4	96.5	60.5	32.9	17.6	9.4
MIN	5-1	0.603	36.0	85.9	59.6	32.2	17.4	9.1
DET	5-1	0.597	33.9	83.5	56.8	30.3	16.1	8.4
WSH	5-2	0.601	61.6	83.1	54.2	29.6	15.8	8.2
DEN	4-3	0.590	16.0	71.5	39.7	20.4	10.5	5.4
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	59.0	36.3	18.9	9.9	5.1
GB	5-2	0.577	15.9	65.1	38.8	19.6	9.9	4.9
BAL	5-2	0.557	35.2	78.8	42.1	20.3	9.7	4.7
TB	4-3	0.542	55.4	70.7	37.5	17.7	8.2	3.8
HOU	5-2	0.511	72.1	86.4	44.1	18.9	8.1	3.5
PHI	4-2	0.540	33.1	64.0	34.1	16.1	7.5	3.4
LAC	3-3	0.562	8.8	58.0	29.6	14.3	6.9	3.4
IND	4-3	0.512	24.8	59.4	27.4	11.8	5.1	2.2
SEA	4-3	0.528	45.3	50.5	23.8	10.9	4.9	2.2
ATL	4-3	0.489	39.0	50.8	22.6	9.5	3.9	1.6
SF	3-4	0.539	26.0	31.4	14.9	7.0	3.2	1.5
CIN	3-4	0.521	5.0	26.3	11.9	5.3	2.4	1.1
ARI	3-4	0.449	21.2	23.5	8.8	3.4	1.3	0.5
NO	2-5	0.495	5.5	10.2	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.3
NYJ	2-5	0.462	3.9	14.3	5.6	2.1	0.8	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	5.1	12.8	4.9	1.8	0.6	0.2
LAR	2-4	0.426	7.5	8.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1
JAX	2-5	0.416	1.8	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	2-4	0.373	1.5	6.8	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
TEN	1-5	0.425	1.3	3.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
LV	2-5	0.392	0.1	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	1-6	0.391	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-6	0.358	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.330	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0