Tenets of Wilson

2024-10-15

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

Buffalo beat New York, but still sits behind undefeated Kansas City and slightly behind Pittsburgh. Buffalo was a top team earlier in the year, but fell off just a bit, and the narrow victory kept them from gaining more ground. Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	52.9	91.8	69.8	38.6	21.4	11.9
KC	5-0	0.567	69.8	94.7	68.7	36.3	18.9	9.4
PIT	4-2	0.588	55.5	84.3	53.2	29.2	15.9	8.3
DET	4-1	0.594	22.5	74.1	47.9	25.6	13.7	7.4
BUF	4-2	0.567	80.0	87.9	51.9	27.2	14.2	7.1
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	62.0	38.4	20.3	10.8	5.8
TB	4-2	0.559	49.1	76.7	45.1	22.6	11.1	5.6
LAC	3-2	0.565	19.6	71.3	40.4	20.9	10.9	5.4
HOU	5-1	0.515	80.1	90.5	53.5	24.9	11.4	5.1
WSH	4-2	0.552	58.2	71.2	39.9	19.7	9.5	4.8
BAL	4-2	0.544	38.0	71.7	39.3	19.5	9.7	4.6
GB	4-2	0.572	10.5	56.0	32.7	16.5	8.4	4.4
ATL	4-2	0.526	43.9	67.7	35.9	16.7	7.6	3.6
SF	3-3	0.556	49.0	53.9	27.1	13.5	6.6	3.3
DEN	3-3	0.540	10.1	52.6	27.3	13.4	6.6	3.1
IND	3-3	0.500	15.2	47.4	22.5	10.0	4.5	1.9
NYJ	2-4	0.512	14.5	36.5	17.4	8.0	3.7	1.6
PHI	3-2	0.488	28.7	45.5	20.8	8.9	3.7	1.6
SEA	3-3	0.493	28.8	33.3	14.5	6.3	2.7	1.2
NO	2-4	0.533	6.8	19.5	9.7	4.5	2.1	1.0
CIN	2-4	0.509	6.0	21.9	10.2	4.7	2.2	1.0
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.6	17.2	6.5	2.5	1.0	0.4
TEN	1-4	0.471	3.9	12.1	5.2	2.2	0.9	0.4
DAL	3-3	0.429	10.2	16.6	6.3	2.3	0.8	0.3
MIA	2-3	0.392	4.6	14.6	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2
NYG	2-4	0.441	2.9	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	6.5	7.2	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1
LV	2-4	0.405	0.5	6.7	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1
CLE	1-5	0.407	0.5	2.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	1-5	0.396	0.8	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NE	1-5	0.382	0.9	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-5	0.365	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City

2024-10-14

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

I appreciate the NFL putting the two Super Bowl teams on bye in the same week. It really keeps the projection clean and doesn't cause a team like Pittsburgh or Detroit to sneak in for a single week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	52.8	91.8	69.8	38.6	21.4	11.9
KC	5-0	0.567	69.9	94.6	69.2	36.6	19.1	9.6
PIT	4-2	0.588	55.4	84.1	53.3	29.4	16.1	8.4
DET	4-1	0.594	22.5	74.2	48.0	25.6	13.7	7.5
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	62.0	38.4	20.3	10.8	5.8
BUF	3-2	0.560	63.0	76.3	43.3	22.4	11.5	5.7
TB	4-2	0.559	49.1	76.7	45.0	22.6	11.1	5.6
LAC	3-2	0.565	19.6	70.9	40.5	21.1	11.0	5.5
HOU	5-1	0.515	80.0	90.4	53.5	25.0	11.5	5.2
WSH	4-2	0.552	58.2	71.2	39.9	19.7	9.5	4.8
BAL	4-2	0.544	38.1	71.6	39.3	19.6	9.7	4.6
GB	4-2	0.572	10.4	55.9	32.7	16.5	8.4	4.4
ATL	4-2	0.526	43.9	67.7	35.9	16.7	7.6	3.6
SF	3-3	0.556	49.2	54.0	27.2	13.5	6.6	3.3
DEN	3-3	0.540	10.0	52.2	27.4	13.4	6.6	3.1
NYJ	2-3	0.520	30.4	50.8	25.4	12.0	5.6	2.5
IND	3-3	0.500	15.2	47.0	22.5	10.1	4.5	2.0
PHI	3-2	0.488	28.7	45.5	20.8	8.9	3.7	1.6
SEA	3-3	0.493	28.8	33.3	14.4	6.3	2.7	1.2
NO	2-4	0.533	6.8	19.5	9.7	4.5	2.1	1.0
CIN	2-4	0.509	6.0	21.5	10.1	4.7	2.1	0.9
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.5	17.1	6.5	2.5	1.0	0.4
TEN	1-4	0.471	4.0	12.0	5.2	2.2	0.9	0.4
DAL	3-3	0.429	10.2	16.6	6.3	2.3	0.8	0.3
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.6	14.4	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2
NYG	2-4	0.441	2.9	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	6.5	7.2	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1
LV	2-4	0.405	0.5	6.5	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1
CLE	1-5	0.407	0.5	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	1-5	0.396	0.8	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NE	1-5	0.382	0.9	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-5	0.365	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

2024-10-11

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Minnesota over Kansas City

After Thursday's game, Seattle and San Francisco are both 3-3 and no threat to Minnesota, who stays on top of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	67.1	94.3	75.6	43.5	24.9	14.1
KC	5-0	0.566	68.5	95.0	72.9	39.7	21.4	11.0
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.4	79.6	49.8	26.0	13.2	6.9
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.3	77.2	46.1	24.6	13.0	6.6
DEN	3-2	0.557	19.4	69.9	41.8	21.9	11.5	5.8
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.5	72.5	42.8	22.3	11.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.7	65.2	35.8	18.0	8.9	4.3
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.3	53.8	31.4	15.9	8.1	4.2
LAC	2-2	0.550	10.7	56.2	31.8	16.4	8.5	4.2
NO	2-3	0.575	31.2	49.4	28.2	14.9	7.8	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.0	57.6	33.1	16.1	7.9	4.0
SF	3-3	0.556	44.1	52.7	28.2	14.4	7.2	3.7
HOU	4-1	0.476	67.8	79.8	42.5	18.6	8.1	3.4
TB	3-2	0.523	33.9	55.7	29.6	14.1	6.6	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.520	30.0	52.8	27.5	13.4	6.5	3.0
GB	3-2	0.536	7.5	44.1	24.0	11.5	5.6	2.8
ATL	3-2	0.492	33.5	51.1	25.1	11.2	4.9	2.2
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.1	41.9	20.5	9.1	4.0	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.7	36.7	18.0	8.2	3.7	1.7
SEA	3-3	0.493	25.4	31.9	14.8	6.6	2.9	1.3
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.3	33.6	15.8	6.7	2.9	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	25.8	31.3	14.2	6.2	2.7	1.2
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.9	25.1	11.7	5.1	2.3	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.4	16.0	7.5	3.4	1.6	0.7
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.9	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.5
LV	2-3	0.437	1.4	16.9	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.4
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.4	15.3	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.1
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	6.9	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.7	5.7	2.2	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-08

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

With 2 teams at 5-0, we're nowhere near a sure thing, but I don't think I would bet against a Super Bowl IV rematch. 55 years is a weird anniversary to choose for a reprise though, so maybe Pittsburgh with turn things around and we can have an IX rematch.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	66.7	94.2	75.1	43.3	24.8	14.1
KC	5-0	0.566	68.7	95.1	73.1	39.9	21.5	11.1
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.3	79.5	49.8	26.1	13.3	7.0
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.5	77.2	46.0	24.6	12.9	6.6
DEN	3-2	0.557	19.3	69.9	41.8	21.9	11.5	5.8
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.5	72.5	42.8	22.3	11.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.7	65.2	35.8	18.0	8.9	4.3
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.4	53.7	31.4	16.0	8.2	4.3
LAC	2-2	0.550	10.6	56.2	31.8	16.4	8.5	4.2
NO	2-3	0.575	31.2	49.3	28.2	14.9	7.8	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.3	58.0	33.5	16.3	8.0	4.0
HOU	4-1	0.476	67.8	79.8	42.4	18.6	8.1	3.4
TB	3-2	0.523	34.3	56.1	29.9	14.3	6.7	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.519	29.8	52.4	27.3	13.3	6.4	3.0
GB	3-2	0.536	7.6	44.0	24.0	11.6	5.6	2.8
SEA	3-2	0.515	44.9	51.0	25.6	12.0	5.5	2.6
ATL	3-2	0.492	33.1	50.6	24.9	11.1	4.9	2.2
SF	2-3	0.537	26.0	34.5	17.6	8.6	4.1	2.1
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.3	42.2	20.7	9.2	4.0	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.7	36.7	18.0	8.2	3.7	1.7
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.2	33.6	15.8	6.8	2.9	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	24.6	30.3	13.8	6.0	2.6	1.2
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.9	25.1	11.8	5.2	2.3	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.4	16.0	7.5	3.4	1.6	0.7
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.9	6.6	2.7	1.1	0.5
LV	2-3	0.437	1.4	17.0	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.5	15.6	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	6.9	2.8	1.1	0.4	0.2
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	6.9	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.4	5.5	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-07

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Minnesota is the first team to 5-0, and Buffalo lost to clean up that weird mess where they were both behind and ahead of Kansas City.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	66.7	93.9	74.6	42.9	24.5	14.0
KC	4-0	0.541	55.7	88.9	61.8	32.1	16.5	8.0
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.8	77.8	47.5	25.6	13.7	6.9
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.2	78.8	49.1	25.6	13.0	6.9
DEN	3-2	0.557	26.7	71.1	43.6	23.2	12.4	6.2
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.8	73.1	44.3	23.3	12.2	6.0
NO	2-2	0.583	40.8	60.7	36.1	19.6	10.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.4	65.3	37.0	18.8	9.5	4.5
LAC	2-2	0.550	15.4	57.0	32.9	17.2	9.0	4.5
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.4	52.7	30.7	15.5	7.9	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.3	57.0	32.7	15.9	7.8	4.0
HOU	4-1	0.476	68.2	80.2	44.4	19.7	8.7	3.7
TB	3-2	0.523	30.0	54.5	28.9	13.7	6.4	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.520	29.5	52.7	28.0	13.8	6.7	3.1
GB	3-2	0.536	7.5	42.9	23.2	11.2	5.4	2.7
SEA	3-2	0.515	44.8	50.6	25.3	11.8	5.4	2.6
ATL	3-2	0.492	28.1	48.3	23.7	10.5	4.6	2.1
SF	2-3	0.537	26.3	34.5	17.6	8.5	4.1	2.1
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.3	41.4	20.2	8.9	3.9	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.5	37.0	18.4	8.5	3.9	1.7
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.3	32.7	15.3	6.5	2.8	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	24.5	29.9	13.5	5.9	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.8	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.3	16.1	7.7	3.6	1.7	0.7
LV	2-3	0.437	2.2	18.0	7.8	3.2	1.3	0.5
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.4	6.3	2.6	1.1	0.5
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.5	15.7	6.0	2.2	0.8	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.2	0.5	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	7.1	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	7.0	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-04

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Minnesota over Kansas City

On Thursday, Atlanta beat Tampa, but both teams are near the middle of the pack, each at 3-2, so the projection stays the same until Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.590	63.4	91.2	69.8	39.6	22.3	12.5
BUF	3-1	0.561	63.0	81.9	53.5	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	60.0	87.2	59.7	31.1	16.0	8.0
PIT	3-1	0.556	59.1	79.1	50.8	27.3	14.5	7.4
NO	2-2	0.583	40.6	63.5	38.8	21.5	11.7	6.5
DET	3-1	0.540	21.3	64.1	38.0	19.1	9.5	4.9
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.0	70.0	40.4	19.9	9.6	4.8
SEA	3-1	0.531	52.6	65.2	37.1	18.4	9.0	4.5
LAC	2-2	0.550	17.6	55.0	31.5	16.5	8.7	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	30.9	60.4	34.2	17.4	8.8	4.4
TB	3-2	0.523	28.5	56.1	30.6	14.9	7.1	3.5
BAL	2-2	0.532	26.1	50.5	27.9	14.1	7.1	3.5
SF	2-2	0.538	31.4	46.9	25.4	12.7	6.3	3.2
DEN	2-2	0.521	15.3	47.5	25.9	12.8	6.3	3.0
HOU	3-1	0.470	51.2	65.3	33.5	14.7	6.4	2.8
IND	2-2	0.500	31.7	51.8	27.1	12.7	6.0	2.7
ATL	3-2	0.492	28.0	51.5	26.1	11.9	5.3	2.5
GB	2-2	0.527	8.0	38.2	20.5	9.9	4.9	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	7.3	34.7	18.0	8.3	3.9	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.9	36.5	17.8	8.0	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.5	38.4	18.4	8.1	3.5	1.6
LV	2-2	0.463	7.1	31.5	15.0	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	9.9	22.9	11.2	5.3	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	14.7	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
ARI	1-3	0.483	11.1	18.0	8.4	3.7	1.6	0.7
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.9	14.0	6.3	2.7	1.1	0.5
NE	1-3	0.425	3.7	14.1	5.9	2.3	0.9	0.4
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.7	9.0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.434	4.9	8.5	3.5	1.4	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.419	2.9	8.3	3.3	1.3	0.5	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.401	2.4	9.5	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.4	4.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1

2024-10-01

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

Minnesota's nearest competitor, Seattle, lost on Monday, but they lost to their division rival, Detroit. On net it was pretty much a wash for Minnesota, but they remain on top. Tennessee and Miami played too, but at 1-3 for each of them, no one was really bothered.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.589	63.5	91.3	69.1	39.1	21.9	12.3
BUF	3-1	0.560	63.0	81.9	53.5	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	59.7	87.1	59.5	31.1	16.0	7.9
PIT	3-1	0.555	59.2	79.0	50.8	27.3	14.5	7.4
NO	2-2	0.583	37.3	63.1	38.3	21.1	11.5	6.4
TB	3-1	0.537	45.1	71.8	42.6	21.3	10.5	5.3
DET	3-1	0.540	21.3	64.5	37.8	18.9	9.4	4.8
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.2	70.3	40.1	19.7	9.5	4.8
SEA	3-1	0.531	52.8	65.5	36.8	18.2	8.8	4.4
LAC	2-2	0.550	17.7	54.9	31.5	16.5	8.7	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	30.9	60.4	34.2	17.4	8.8	4.3
BAL	2-2	0.531	26.0	50.3	27.8	14.1	7.1	3.5
SF	2-2	0.538	31.1	46.7	25.2	12.5	6.2	3.2
DEN	2-2	0.521	15.5	47.8	26.1	12.9	6.3	3.0
HOU	3-1	0.471	51.2	65.3	33.5	14.7	6.4	2.8
IND	2-2	0.500	31.7	51.8	27.1	12.8	6.0	2.7
GB	2-2	0.527	8.0	38.4	20.5	9.9	4.8	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	7.3	34.8	17.9	8.3	3.8	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.8	36.5	17.7	7.9	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.4	38.6	18.4	8.0	3.5	1.6
ATL	2-2	0.479	15.0	34.7	16.7	7.3	3.2	1.4
LV	2-2	0.463	7.1	31.6	15.1	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	9.9	22.9	11.2	5.3	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	14.7	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
ARI	1-3	0.483	11.1	18.1	8.3	3.7	1.6	0.7
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.9	14.0	6.3	2.7	1.2	0.5
NE	1-3	0.425	3.7	14.1	5.9	2.3	0.9	0.4
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.6	9.0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.434	4.9	8.6	3.5	1.4	0.5	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.401	2.4	9.5	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.419	2.6	8.2	3.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.4	4.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1

2024-09-30

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Here's a weird quirk. Buffalo is the most likely AFC team to win the Super Bowl, but not the most likely AFC team to make it there, an honor that currently belongs to Kansas City. That's because KC's record is better than Buffalo, while they are not nearly as strong (worse than also Pittsburgh and LA in the AFC), and not expected to win as many more games. But, they also have a 2 game lead in the division already, with all other teams being 2-2.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.589	69.0	91.9	68.9	38.9	21.7	12.2
BUF	3-1	0.560	62.1	81.5	53.4	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	59.6	87.0	59.5	31.1	16.0	7.9
PIT	3-1	0.555	59.1	78.9	50.7	27.3	14.5	7.4
SEA	3-0	0.557	66.5	79.9	50.9	26.7	13.7	7.3
NO	2-2	0.583	37.4	63.9	38.5	21.0	11.4	6.3
TB	3-1	0.536	45.2	72.4	42.3	21.1	10.3	5.3
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.5	71.3	40.4	19.7	9.5	4.7
LAC	2-2	0.550	18.0	55.2	31.7	16.7	8.8	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	28.9	58.1	32.9	16.8	8.5	4.2
BAL	2-2	0.531	25.9	50.0	27.7	14.1	7.1	3.5
DEN	2-2	0.520	15.4	47.6	26.1	12.9	6.4	3.0
SF	2-2	0.538	22.8	44.2	23.6	11.7	5.8	2.9
DET	2-1	0.520	14.1	48.6	26.0	12.4	5.9	2.9
HOU	3-1	0.471	54.9	67.7	34.9	15.4	6.7	2.9
IND	2-2	0.500	34.0	53.7	28.3	13.3	6.2	2.8
GB	2-2	0.526	8.7	39.0	20.4	9.8	4.8	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	8.1	35.7	18.1	8.3	3.8	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.8	37.4	18.0	7.9	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.2	39.3	18.5	8.0	3.5	1.6
ATL	2-2	0.479	14.8	35.1	16.6	7.2	3.1	1.4
LV	2-2	0.464	7.0	31.1	14.9	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	10.1	23.1	11.3	5.3	2.5	1.1
ARI	1-3	0.483	7.5	16.2	7.4	3.3	1.4	0.7
MIA	1-2	0.428	5.4	20.0	8.6	3.4	1.4	0.5
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.8	13.7	6.2	2.7	1.1	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	8.3	14.0	6.2	2.6	1.1	0.4
NE	1-3	0.425	3.6	13.7	5.8	2.3	0.9	0.3
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.5	9.1	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.435	3.2	7.5	3.1	1.2	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.420	2.6	8.5	3.4	1.3	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.8	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1

2024-09-27

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Minnesota over Buffalo

Neither Dallas nor the New York Giants were rated very highly, and Dallas won as was most probable, so nothing much changed on Thursday night. So, the projection remains Minnesota over Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-0	0.575	67.0	89.8	63.9	35.9	19.8	10.6
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.2	84.7	60.0	33.7	18.6	10.2
PIT	3-0	0.567	76.5	89.6	62.9	34.8	18.8	10.0
NO	2-1	0.575	56.9	76.0	48.7	26.8	14.6	7.9
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.2	78.8	51.3	27.3	14.3	7.5
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.8	71.2	43.2	23.2	12.3	6.4
KC	3-0	0.524	42.6	76.3	45.9	22.9	11.2	5.5
NYJ	2-1	0.531	25.1	66.6	38.4	19.3	9.7	4.8
PHI	2-1	0.513	42.3	62.1	34.6	16.6	7.8	3.8
GB	2-1	0.532	20.0	51.5	29.2	14.5	7.2	3.6
DET	2-1	0.520	17.6	50.5	27.8	13.5	6.5	3.2
TB	2-1	0.504	27.9	55.1	29.6	13.9	6.5	3.0
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.3	37.7	20.3	10.1	5.0	2.5
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.1	38.5	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.2
HOU	2-1	0.464	49.4	58.8	28.5	12.2	5.2	2.2
WSH	2-1	0.486	30.3	47.4	24.0	10.7	4.8	2.2
IND	1-2	0.494	30.0	42.1	21.1	9.6	4.4	2.0
DAL	2-2	0.488	23.1	39.6	19.6	8.8	4.0	1.8
SF	1-2	0.507	12.1	27.5	13.9	6.5	3.1	1.5
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.5	28.1	13.7	6.3	2.9	1.3
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.0	12.4	5.6	2.6	1.2
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	24.9	11.8	5.1	2.2	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.464	7.8	25.8	12.0	5.2	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	4.8	25.3	11.5	4.8	2.1	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.5	24.1	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
CIN	0-3	0.479	5.2	15.5	7.2	3.2	1.4	0.6
MIA	1-2	0.428	3.1	19.8	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	11.4	16.4	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.4	13.8	6.1	2.5	1.0	0.4
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	15.6	6.6	2.6	1.0	0.4
JAX	0-3	0.429	9.2	12.1	5.0	2.0	0.8	0.3
NYG	1-3	0.446	4.3	9.7	4.2	1.7	0.7	0.3

2024-09-24

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Final

Minnesota over Buffalo

I sort of ignored Buffalo yesterday since they fell out of the top grouping, but that's only because they played on the Monday doubleheader. They beat Jacksonville by a large margin to push themselves to the top of the AFC, but not quite to Minnesota's strength yet, thanks mostly to the very stingy defense of Minnesota, having only allowed 30 points so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-0	0.575	67.0	89.8	63.9	36.0	19.8	10.7
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.2	84.9	60.3	33.9	18.8	10.3
PIT	3-0	0.567	76.6	89.5	62.8	34.8	18.8	10.0
NO	2-1	0.575	56.8	75.9	48.7	26.8	14.6	7.9
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.1	78.8	51.3	27.4	14.3	7.5
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.8	71.3	43.3	23.2	12.3	6.4
KC	3-0	0.524	42.6	76.3	45.9	22.9	11.2	5.5
NYJ	2-1	0.531	25.1	66.6	38.5	19.3	9.7	4.8
PHI	2-1	0.514	43.2	62.2	34.7	16.6	7.9	3.8
GB	2-1	0.532	20.0	51.7	29.3	14.6	7.3	3.6
DET	2-1	0.520	17.6	50.7	27.9	13.6	6.6	3.2
TB	2-1	0.504	27.9	55.1	29.6	13.9	6.5	3.0
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.4	37.9	20.5	10.2	5.0	2.5
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.1	38.6	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.2
HOU	2-1	0.464	49.5	58.9	28.5	12.2	5.2	2.2
WSH	2-1	0.486	31.2	47.9	24.2	10.9	4.9	2.2
IND	1-2	0.493	29.8	41.9	21.0	9.6	4.4	2.0
SF	1-2	0.507	12.2	27.7	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.5
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.4	28.0	13.6	6.2	2.8	1.3
DAL	1-2	0.482	16.1	28.9	13.9	6.2	2.7	1.2
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.2	12.5	5.7	2.6	1.2
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	24.9	11.8	5.2	2.3	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.464	7.8	25.8	12.0	5.2	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	4.8	25.3	11.5	4.8	2.1	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.5	24.1	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
CIN	0-3	0.479	5.2	15.5	7.2	3.2	1.4	0.6
NYG	1-2	0.458	9.5	18.6	8.4	3.5	1.5	0.6
MIA	1-2	0.428	3.1	19.8	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	11.4	16.4	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.4	13.8	6.1	2.5	1.0	0.4
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	15.7	6.7	2.6	1.1	0.4
JAX	0-3	0.429	9.2	12.2	5.0	2.0	0.8	0.3

2024-09-23

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

We had a nice top-of-the-charts matchup early this year, and Pittsburgh upset the LA Chargers to take over the AFC lead. I always run one simulation that assumes the favorites win every game, just for fun, and before today, that had the unlikely result of LA, Minnesota, and Buffalo all going 17-0, and Pittsburgh losing only to LA this week and then again in the AFC Title game. New Orleans would also have had their only losses to LA, one during the season and one in the Super Bowl, beating Minnesota along the way in the playoffs. But, New Orleans also lost this week. Now that chalk simulation shows Minnesota and Pittsburgh still 17-0, but Minnesota taking the title.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	3-0	0.566	74.3	88.9	64.3	36.0	19.9	10.5
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.0	84.9	60.2	33.8	18.7	10.4
NO	2-1	0.575	56.8	76.5	49.2	27.1	14.7	8.1
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.2	79.5	52.2	27.8	14.6	7.8
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.5	70.7	43.8	23.9	12.9	6.7
BUF	2-0	0.538	53.1	77.6	49.3	25.8	13.3	6.7
KC	3-0	0.524	43.2	76.5	47.4	24.0	12.0	5.8
NYJ	2-1	0.531	34.6	66.9	39.5	20.2	10.3	5.1
PHI	2-1	0.513	46.7	63.3	35.3	16.9	8.0	3.9
GB	2-1	0.532	19.9	51.6	29.3	14.6	7.3	3.7
DET	2-1	0.520	17.9	51.3	28.3	13.7	6.7	3.3
TB	2-1	0.504	27.8	55.8	30.0	14.1	6.6	3.2
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.1	38.6	20.9	10.4	5.1	2.6
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.0	38.0	20.2	9.9	4.9	2.3
HOU	2-1	0.464	44.0	55.0	27.2	11.9	5.2	2.2
IND	1-2	0.494	26.2	38.8	19.8	9.2	4.3	2.0
WSH	1-1	0.476	23.9	37.6	18.3	8.0	3.5	1.6
SF	1-2	0.507	12.2	28.7	14.5	6.8	3.2	1.6
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.2	28.1	14.0	6.5	3.0	1.4
DAL	1-2	0.482	18.3	30.6	14.7	6.5	2.9	1.3
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.3	12.6	5.7	2.6	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.481	20.0	27.4	13.3	6.0	2.7	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	8.2	22.7	11.1	5.1	2.4	1.1
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	25.7	12.2	5.3	2.3	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.465	7.4	25.5	12.2	5.3	2.4	1.0
NE	1-2	0.456	7.2	25.7	11.9	5.1	2.2	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.3	23.1	10.8	4.7	2.1	0.9
NYG	1-2	0.458	11.2	19.9	9.0	3.8	1.6	0.7
MIA	1-2	0.428	5.1	20.2	8.7	3.5	1.4	0.6
TEN	0-3	0.446	9.7	14.7	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.5	14.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	0.5
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	16.2	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4

2024-09-20

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

My new simulator also writes out the probabilities of the upcoming games, so I can see in real time how bad I am at this. New England was slightly favored over the Jets, and lost 24-3. That result didn't bother the Chargers, who are still atop the AFC and your most likely Super Bowl champ by just a hair.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	51.5	78.2	51.7	28.3	15.4	8.2
NO	2-0	0.555	48.3	78.1	52.1	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	60.8	77.2	49.8	26.6	14.0	7.3
MIN	2-0	0.548	48.3	73.5	47.8	25.6	13.6	7.2
BUF	2-0	0.539	50.4	75.9	48.3	25.4	13.3	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	37.4	72.3	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.3	73.4	43.4	21.7	10.7	5.3
NYJ	2-1	0.531	33.3	65.6	38.9	20.1	10.3	5.3
KC	2-0	0.514	31.7	66.0	38.6	19.2	9.5	4.7
SEA	2-0	0.517	41.3	62.4	36.6	18.3	9.1	4.5
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.6	53.1	30.9	16.0	8.2	4.2
PHI	1-1	0.506	35.8	49.6	26.8	13.0	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.7	43.1	23.5	11.6	5.7	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	18.0	40.3	21.7	10.5	5.0	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.9	37.7	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
GB	1-1	0.502	16.8	36.6	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	28.7	40.6	20.6	9.6	4.4	2.1
LV	1-1	0.481	11.4	37.9	19.2	8.8	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	18.1	38.7	19.6	8.9	4.1	1.9
ATL	1-1	0.483	11.8	36.2	18.7	8.7	4.0	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	26.5	38.4	19.0	8.6	3.9	1.8
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.4	33.4	16.2	7.2	3.2	1.4
IND	0-2	0.484	11.8	24.6	12.1	5.6	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.5	23.4	11.5	5.3	2.5	1.1
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.5	22.6	11.0	5.0	2.3	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.483	9.6	20.5	10.0	4.6	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.3	22.1	10.6	4.8	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	6.0	22.2	10.3	4.5	2.0	0.8
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.3	18.4	8.7	3.9	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	9.0	15.0	6.8	2.9	1.3	0.6
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.5	12.1	5.4	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.0	5.0	2.2	0.9	0.4

2024-09-17

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Final

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Now that week 2 is complete... let's still not read too much into a week 2 projection. Atlanta upset Philadelphia so both of them are in the muddled middle, as some sportswriter used to say, leaving our top projection the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	50.8	77.6	51.5	28.3	15.5	8.3
NO	2-0	0.555	48.2	78.2	52.1	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	61.4	77.8	50.6	27.1	14.4	7.5
MIN	2-0	0.548	49.1	74.1	48.3	25.9	13.7	7.3
BUF	2-0	0.539	52.4	75.7	48.4	25.6	13.4	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	37.4	72.3	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.5	73.5	43.7	21.9	10.9	5.4
KC	2-0	0.514	32.1	66.0	38.9	19.4	9.7	4.8
SEA	2-0	0.517	42.3	63.3	37.2	18.6	9.2	4.6
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.4	53.0	30.8	15.9	8.2	4.2
NE	1-1	0.507	20.4	47.8	26.3	12.9	6.3	3.1
PHI	1-1	0.506	35.9	49.7	26.8	13.0	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.0	42.2	22.9	11.3	5.6	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	17.4	39.6	21.2	10.2	4.9	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.8	37.7	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
NYJ	1-1	0.489	16.3	40.8	21.4	10.1	4.7	2.2
GB	1-1	0.502	16.7	36.6	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	28.7	40.7	20.6	9.5	4.4	2.1
LV	1-1	0.481	11.6	37.9	19.3	8.9	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	17.9	38.7	19.7	9.0	4.2	1.9
ATL	1-1	0.483	11.8	36.2	18.7	8.6	4.0	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	26.4	38.4	19.0	8.6	3.9	1.8
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.9	33.1	16.1	7.2	3.2	1.4
IND	0-2	0.484	11.9	24.6	12.2	5.7	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.3	23.4	11.5	5.4	2.5	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.5	22.6	11.0	5.1	2.4	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.482	9.4	20.4	10.1	4.7	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.0	21.5	10.4	4.7	2.1	1.0
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.6	18.8	9.0	4.0	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	9.0	15.0	6.8	2.9	1.3	0.6
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.5	12.1	5.4	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.0	5.0	2.1	0.9	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

2024-09-16

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Let's not read too much into a week 2 projection, but it's at least the same matchup from week 1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	50.8	77.6	51.6	28.3	15.5	8.3
NO	2-0	0.555	50.0	78.6	52.2	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	61.4	77.7	50.6	27.1	14.4	7.5
MIN	2-0	0.548	49.1	74.3	48.1	25.7	13.7	7.3
BUF	2-0	0.539	52.4	75.7	48.4	25.6	13.4	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	38.9	72.8	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.5	73.5	43.7	21.9	10.9	5.4
KC	2-0	0.514	32.1	66.0	38.9	19.4	9.7	4.8
SEA	2-0	0.517	42.3	63.4	37.0	18.4	9.1	4.6
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.4	53.1	30.8	15.9	8.2	4.2
PHI	1-0	0.507	43.0	59.6	33.7	16.4	7.9	3.9
NE	1-1	0.507	20.4	47.8	26.3	12.9	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.0	42.3	22.9	11.3	5.6	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	17.4	39.7	21.2	10.2	4.9	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.8	37.9	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
NYJ	1-1	0.489	16.3	40.8	21.4	10.1	4.7	2.2
GB	1-1	0.502	16.7	36.8	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	25.6	39.7	20.1	9.3	4.3	2.0
LV	1-1	0.481	11.6	37.9	19.3	8.9	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	17.9	38.7	19.7	9.0	4.2	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	23.5	37.5	18.5	8.4	3.8	1.7
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.9	33.1	16.1	7.2	3.2	1.4
ATL	0-1	0.479	8.5	26.5	13.3	6.1	2.8	1.3
IND	0-2	0.484	11.9	24.6	12.2	5.7	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.3	23.4	11.5	5.4	2.5	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.6	22.6	11.0	5.1	2.4	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.482	9.5	20.4	10.1	4.7	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.0	21.5	10.4	4.7	2.1	1.0
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.6	18.8	9.0	4.0	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	7.8	14.5	6.6	2.8	1.2	0.5
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.7	12.2	5.5	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.1	5.0	2.2	0.9	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans

2024-09-13

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Buffalo over New Orleans

This is the only dumber post than week 1 of my college football rankings, where every 1-0 team is tied. That's because we almost always have a single 2-0 and/or 0-2 team that skews everything due to the way I regress the strengths when only a few games have been played. But at least it gives me something to complain about every year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	2-0	0.539	49.2	74.6	49.2	26.5	14.3	7.5
LAC	1-0	0.524	40.3	63.7	39.2	20.4	10.6	5.4
NO	1-0	0.529	41.6	63.1	38.5	20.1	10.4	5.4
PIT	1-0	0.521	46.5	63.3	38.5	19.9	10.2	5.2
MIN	1-0	0.529	33.4	59.8	36.6	19.1	9.9	5.2
NE	1-0	0.518	29.8	59.9	36.3	18.6	9.5	4.8
DAL	1-0	0.522	39.3	59.0	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
TB	1-0	0.521	36.2	59.1	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
KC	1-0	0.512	33.4	58.1	34.6	17.6	8.9	4.5
SF	1-0	0.519	35.6	55.0	32.4	16.5	8.4	4.3
HOU	1-0	0.503	41.4	57.9	33.5	16.6	8.2	4.1
PHI	1-0	0.507	34.2	55.9	32.3	16.0	7.9	4.0
CHI	1-0	0.514	28.4	52.7	30.7	15.5	7.8	4.0
SEA	1-0	0.511	34.1	53.8	31.2	15.6	7.8	3.9
DET	1-0	0.511	26.1	51.4	29.8	14.9	7.5	3.8
IND	0-1	0.497	18.9	34.8	18.7	9.2	4.5	2.2
JAX	0-1	0.493	20.5	34.2	18.2	8.8	4.3	2.1
DEN	0-1	0.489	15.3	33.5	17.8	8.6	4.1	2.0
TEN	0-1	0.486	19.2	33.6	17.8	8.5	4.1	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.488	18.2	32.4	17.0	8.2	3.9	1.9
ARI	0-1	0.492	15.8	31.1	16.4	7.9	3.8	1.8
CIN	0-1	0.482	18.3	31.9	16.5	7.8	3.7	1.8
CLE	0-1	0.478	17.0	31.8	16.4	7.7	3.6	1.7
GB	0-1	0.493	12.1	28.0	14.7	7.1	3.4	1.7
NYJ	0-1	0.481	10.6	29.6	15.5	7.3	3.5	1.6
LAR	0-1	0.489	14.5	28.0	14.5	6.9	3.3	1.6
MIA	1-1	0.464	10.5	32.8	16.5	7.5	3.4	1.6
ATL	0-1	0.479	12.5	27.3	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.4
LV	0-1	0.476	11.0	27.8	14.2	6.7	3.1	1.4
WSH	0-1	0.479	13.9	27.3	13.8	6.4	3.0	1.4
NYG	0-1	0.471	12.6	24.7	12.2	5.6	2.6	1.2
CAR	0-1	0.471	9.7	23.8	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers

2024-09-10

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 1, Final

New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers

Copy, Paste, Repeat:

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I've really got to stop taking the entire football offseason off. Life's busy these days. I've made some progress on a new version of my simulation software but it's not quite ready, hence I'll go with the old one for the 2024 season. Maybe by UFL season we'll have the more generic one. I'm posting this a bit late but backdating so you won't know it. Unless you actually read this paragraph, I guess.

Week 1 isn't terribly meaningful, usually. Last year predicted Dallas over Cleveland. They did win 23 games combined, but both lost in the first round of the playoffs. As a quick reminder, my projection as stated in the opening line consists of the two teams most likely to win the two conferences, with the stronger one listed as the winner. So while LA is the most likely winner (by a hair), New Orleans wins the matchup between them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	1-0	0.524	40.3	63.5	39.4	20.6	10.8	5.5
NO	1-0	0.529	41.6	63.1	38.6	20.1	10.4	5.5
PIT	1-0	0.521	46.5	63.1	38.6	20.0	10.4	5.3
MIN	1-0	0.529	33.4	59.9	36.6	19.1	9.9	5.2
NE	1-0	0.518	31.1	59.2	36.1	18.6	9.6	4.9
DAL	1-0	0.522	39.3	59.0	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
TB	1-0	0.521	36.2	59.2	35.5	18.2	9.3	4.8
KC	1-0	0.512	33.8	58.3	35.0	17.8	9.1	4.6
SF	1-0	0.519	35.7	55.0	32.4	16.5	8.4	4.3
MIA	1-0	0.507	29.2	56.6	33.6	16.9	8.5	4.2
BUF	1-0	0.508	28.6	54.6	32.4	16.4	8.3	4.1
HOU	1-0	0.503	41.2	57.6	33.4	16.7	8.3	4.1
PHI	1-0	0.507	34.2	56.0	32.4	16.1	7.9	4.0
CHI	1-0	0.514	28.4	52.8	30.8	15.5	7.8	4.0
SEA	1-0	0.511	34.2	53.8	31.1	15.6	7.8	4.0
DET	1-0	0.511	26.4	51.9	30.1	15.1	7.6	3.8
IND	0-1	0.497	18.8	34.4	18.6	9.2	4.5	2.2
JAX	0-1	0.493	20.8	34.5	18.4	9.0	4.4	2.1
DEN	0-1	0.489	15.2	33.3	17.8	8.6	4.2	2.0
TEN	0-1	0.486	19.1	33.3	17.7	8.5	4.1	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.488	18.5	32.7	17.2	8.3	4.0	1.9
ARI	0-1	0.492	15.5	30.6	16.1	7.7	3.7	1.8
CIN	0-1	0.482	18.3	31.8	16.5	7.9	3.8	1.8
CLE	0-1	0.478	16.6	31.0	16.1	7.6	3.6	1.7
GB	0-1	0.493	11.8	27.5	14.5	7.0	3.4	1.6
NYJ	0-1	0.481	11.1	29.0	15.3	7.3	3.5	1.6
LAR	0-1	0.489	14.5	27.9	14.5	6.9	3.3	1.6
ATL	0-1	0.479	12.5	27.4	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.5
LV	0-1	0.476	10.7	27.1	13.9	6.6	3.1	1.4
WSH	0-1	0.479	13.9	27.3	13.8	6.5	3.0	1.4
NYG	0-1	0.471	12.6	24.7	12.3	5.6	2.6	1.2
CAR	0-1	0.471	9.7	23.9	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2

2024-01-22

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Both teams I rooted for won on Sunday, and they'll both travel to play some juggernauts in the Conference championships.

Kansas City at Baltimore (72%)
As usual, I'm rooting for Kansas City. By the numbers it's looking a little scary, though.

Detroit at San Francisco (74%)
I feel like my rooting interest in this one will depend on the first game. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Detroit, both because they are the underdog, and because they should be an easier opponent in the Super Bowl. If Baltimore wins, I think I'll root for San Francisco, so that my matchup projection since week 10 (And also briefly in week 3) will be proven accurate.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	++	71.6	42.5
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	++	73.5	38.9
KC	11-6	0.666	++	++	++	++	28.4	10.7
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	++	++	26.5	7.9
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	++	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Monday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco