Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit beat Chicago to become the first team to reach a 99.999% chance at the playoffs, and the New York Giants eliminated themselves, saving me from having to run a bunch more simulations to figure out the crazy edge case that would keep them alive. Chicago also eliminated themselves from winning the NFC North with the loss. Teams should start clinching and dropping out left and right now, but at least one spot will surely come down to the last gameday of the season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	87.5	100.0	93.1	62.4	40.8	26.5
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	77.7	44.2	25.1	12.2
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.2	99.9	65.9	38.8	18.0	9.8
MIN	9-2	0.648	9.8	98.4	64.8	30.8	14.1	7.3
PIT	8-3	0.637	66.7	98.0	56.7	29.5	15.0	6.7
LAC	7-4	0.647	9.4	95.6	53.3	27.9	14.6	6.7
KC	10-1	0.600	88.7	100.0	70.3	34.1	15.7	6.4
GB	9-3	0.640	2.7	97.3	59.4	26.5	12.2	6.2
DEN	7-5	0.634	1.9	82.9	43.0	21.6	11.0	4.9
BAL	8-4	0.609	33.2	97.6	50.3	24.1	11.5	4.8
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.8	77.6	36.5	13.9	6.0	2.8
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.8	95.5	38.9	15.4	6.1	2.1
TB	5-6	0.559	37.5	49.4	20.3	7.8	2.9	1.2
ARI	6-5	0.516	51.1	53.8	20.0	7.2	2.3	0.9
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.4	37.8	13.7	4.7	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.5	61.5	18.7	5.5	1.5	0.5
IND	5-7	0.435	4.2	16.7	5.3	1.6	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.7	7.4	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	3.8	6.3	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.4	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	0.0	7.7	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.8	9.4	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-8	0.340	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.278	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-9	0.320	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo