2024-09-30

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Here's a weird quirk. Buffalo is the most likely AFC team to win the Super Bowl, but not the most likely AFC team to make it there, an honor that currently belongs to Kansas City. That's because KC's record is better than Buffalo, while they are not nearly as strong (worse than also Pittsburgh and LA in the AFC), and not expected to win as many more games. But, they also have a 2 game lead in the division already, with all other teams being 2-2.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
MIN4-00.58969.091.968.938.921.712.2
BUF3-10.56062.181.553.429.115.68.1
KC4-00.54159.687.059.531.116.07.9
PIT3-10.55559.178.950.727.314.57.4
SEA3-00.55766.579.950.926.713.77.3
NO2-20.58337.463.938.521.011.46.3
TB3-10.53645.272.442.321.110.35.3
WSH3-10.52954.571.340.419.79.54.7
LAC2-20.55018.055.231.716.78.84.4
NYJ2-20.53428.958.132.916.88.54.2
BAL2-20.53125.950.027.714.17.13.5
DEN2-20.52015.447.626.112.96.43.0
SF2-20.53822.844.223.611.75.82.9
DET2-10.52014.148.626.012.45.92.9
HOU3-10.47154.967.734.915.46.72.9
IND2-20.50034.053.728.313.36.22.8
GB2-20.5268.739.020.49.84.82.4
CHI2-20.5058.135.718.18.33.81.8
DAL2-20.48820.837.418.07.93.51.6
PHI2-20.48121.239.318.58.03.51.6
ATL2-20.47914.835.116.67.23.11.4
LV2-20.4647.031.114.96.52.81.2
CIN1-30.49710.123.111.35.32.51.1
ARI1-30.4837.516.27.43.31.40.7
MIA1-20.4285.420.08.63.41.40.5
CLE1-30.4554.813.76.22.71.10.5
TEN0-30.4468.314.06.22.61.10.4
NE1-30.4253.613.75.82.30.90.3
NYG1-30.4463.59.13.81.50.60.3
LAR1-30.4353.27.53.11.20.50.2
CAR1-30.4202.68.53.41.30.50.2
JAX0-40.4172.84.61.80.70.30.1


[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo

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