NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 7

I think my #1 spot is cursed by the ghost of LSU's canceled game. For the second consecutive week the team at that spot lost, as Florida fell to LSU. Iowa is the new #1. They've got a bye next week too, and it's likely that one of the other 7-0 teams will move to 8-0 and pass them. Although, it's not impossible for an 8-0 team to be below a 7-0 team in my rankings.

Missouri and Georgia kicked a total of 5 field goals as the Tigers lost 9-6 and fell to #55. Maybe they can play in one of the recently added bowls that bring the total high enough to necessitate 5-win teams getting into the postseason.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game?
Having beaten previous #1 Florida, LSU would now be at #1 again. As is stands they are #6, but winning their next two games could bring them all the way up to a legitimate #1, since they're against #23 and #9, respectively.

1	Iowa	7-0
2	Ohio State	7-0
3	Michigan State	7-0
4	TCU	7-0
5	Utah	6-0
6	LSU	6-0
7	Florida	6-1
8	Clemson	6-0
9	Alabama	6-1
10	Memphis	6-0
11	Florida State	6-0
12	Notre Dame	6-1
13	Oklahoma State	6-0
14	Baylor	6-0
15	California	5-1
16	Temple	6-0
17	Toledo	6-0
T-18	Northwestern	5-2
T-18	Houston	6-0
20	Marshall	6-1
21	Michigan	5-2
22	BYU	5-2
23	Western Kentucky	6-1
24	Texas A&M	5-1
25	Stanford	5-1
26	Pittsburgh	5-1
27	Penn State	5-2
28	Oklahoma	5-1
29	North Carolina	5-1
30	Ole Miss	5-2
31	Mississippi State	5-2
32	Georgia	5-2
33	Duke	5-1
34	Ohio	5-2
35	Texas Tech	5-2
36	Boise State	5-2
37	Georgia Southern	5-1
38	Wisconsin	5-2
39	Arizona	5-2
40	Auburn	4-2
41	Bowling Green	5-2
42	Illinois	4-2
43	Navy	4-1
44	Appalachian State	5-1
45	UCLA	4-2
46	Kentucky	4-2
47	Utah State	4-2
48	Miami (FL)	4-2
49	Washington State	4-2
50	Oregon	4-3
51	East Carolina	4-3
52	Indiana	4-3
53	Minnesota	4-3
54	Arizona State	4-3
55	Missouri	4-3
56	San Diego State	4-3
57	NC State	4-2
58	Louisiana Tech	4-3
59	Tennessee	3-3
60	Western Michigan	3-3
61	West Virginia	3-3
62	Kansas State	3-3
63	USC	3-3
64	Nebraska	3-4
65	Cincinnati	3-3
66	Northern Illinois	4-3
67	Washington	3-3
68	Southern Mississippi	4-3
69	Virginia Tech	3-4
70	Rutgers	3-3
71	South Carolina	3-4
72	Tulsa	3-3
73	Central Michigan	3-4
74	South Florida	3-3
75	Arkansas State	3-3
76	Wake Forest	3-4
77	Boston College	3-4
78	Texas	2-4
79	Syracuse	3-3
80	New Mexico	4-3
81	Air Force	3-3
82	South Alabama	3-3
83	Old Dominion	3-3
84	Akron	3-4
85	Louisville	2-4
86	Connecticut	3-4
T-87	Middle Tennessee	3-4
T-87	Kent State	3-4
89	Maryland	2-4
T-90	Rice	3-3
T-90	Virginia	2-4
92	Arkansas	2-4
93	Colorado State	3-4
94	San Jose State	3-4
95	Georgia Tech	2-5
96	Oregon State	2-4
97	Colorado	3-4
98	Iowa State	2-4
99	Nevada	3-4
100	Florida Intl	3-4
101	Vanderbilt	2-4
102	Idaho	2-4
103	Tulane	2-4
104	Hawaii	2-5
105	Louisiana Lafayette	2-3
106	Fresno State	2-5
107	Army	2-5
108	Buffalo	2-4
109	Ball State	2-5
110	UNLV	2-5
111	SMU	1-5
112	Purdue	1-6
113	Charlotte	2-4
114	Texas State	1-4
115	Georgia State	2-4
116	UTEP	2-4
117	Louisiana Monroe	1-5
118	Troy	1-5
119	Massachusetts	1-5
120	Miami (OH)	1-6
121	Texas San Antonio	1-6
122	Florida Atlantic	1-5
123	Wyoming	1-6
124	Kansas	0-6
125	Eastern Michigan	1-6
126	North Texas	0-6
127	New Mexico State	0-6
128	UCF	0-7

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida

2015 World Series Projection, October 18

Kansas City over New York

League Championship Series
KC 2-0 TOR
CHI 0-1 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	29.49	19.68
CHI	0.5575	35.85	16.35
KC	0.5560	70.51	35.79
NYM	0.5498	64.15	28.18

The Mets have become the NL favorite for the first time this year, and Kansas City is in the driver's seat in the AL up 2-0. No matter who ultimately wins, a fairly long world championship drought will end. It may be 22 years for Toronto, 29 years for New York, 30 years for Kansas City, or 107 for Chicago. The last sizeable streak to end was 56 years from 1954-2010 by the New York/San Francisco Giants. With 30 teams and decent parity, it makes sense we'd have streaks longer than 30 years end fairly often, so really the first three teams aren't outliers by that far. What is unusual is that we're already down to only teams with long streaks of no wins, with 4 still in the hunt.

2015 World Series Projection, October 17

Chicago over Kansas City

League Championship Series
KC 1-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	49.23	32.72
CHI	0.5575	51.71	21.94
KC	0.5560	50.77	25.63
NYM	0.5498	48.29	19.70

From a betting perspective, things couldn't get much closer. Chicago is the biggest LCS favorite at 51.71%, followed by Kansas City at 50.77%, despite their one-game lead. Today will feature a game in each series, moving us a bit closer. 

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Atlanta lost some ground by losing a game they should have won against New Orleans. I had Atlanta with a 65% chance of winning that game. That's not a sure thing, but it's still quite an upset. Green Bay's positioning solidified at the top of the NFC with Atlanta dropping to 5-1 instead of taking a lead at 6-0, and the AFC was relatively unaffected, so Green Bay and Cincinnati are still my Superbowl teams.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	4-1	0.626	80.65	89.53	71.13	40.70	22.98	12.88
GB	5-0	0.603	88.55	96.26	83.26	45.85	24.48	13.13
NE	4-0	0.596	56.74	88.44	69.75	38.06	20.44	10.58
NYJ	3-1	0.584	31.37	74.82	52.63	27.48	14.37	7.26
CIN	5-0	0.581	78.69	91.41	75.14	39.95	20.66	10.38
DEN	5-0	0.577	89.40	93.14	74.97	39.40	20.17	10.04
CAR	4-0	0.570	49.71	84.31	61.44	30.88	15.11	7.59
ATL	5-1	0.567	47.85	89.49	64.70	32.21	15.66	7.81
PIT	3-2	0.553	16.62	42.86	25.83	12.47	6.06	2.87
NYG	3-2	0.544	51.50	59.56	33.96	15.55	7.19	3.42
BUF	3-2	0.538	11.41	50.05	29.25	13.62	6.42	2.95
PHI	2-3	0.530	20.97	28.78	14.96	6.62	2.97	1.37
SEA	2-3	0.529	11.81	28.78	14.87	6.64	3.02	1.39
TEN	1-3	0.521	29.85	32.79	16.07	7.13	3.22	1.42
MIN	2-2	0.517	9.92	35.39	18.71	8.11	3.57	1.61
WAS	2-3	0.484	15.97	24.24	11.31	4.48	1.81	0.76
BAL	1-4	0.475	1.05	4.78	2.14	0.85	0.35	0.14
CLE	2-3	0.474	3.64	10.41	5.06	2.04	0.84	0.33
IND	3-2	0.469	56.57	58.67	26.59	10.48	4.19	1.64
SD	2-3	0.467	6.08	14.66	6.74	2.66	1.07	0.42
OAK	2-3	0.466	3.28	13.22	6.03	2.37	0.95	0.37
KC	1-4	0.454	1.24	5.56	2.38	0.90	0.35	0.13
NO	2-4	0.445	0.86	7.15	2.90	1.04	0.38	0.15
DAL	2-3	0.442	11.56	15.88	6.68	2.38	0.87	0.33
STL	2-3	0.435	6.76	17.34	7.09	2.52	0.91	0.34
TB	2-3	0.435	1.58	12.42	5.14	1.80	0.65	0.24
HOU	1-4	0.428	7.54	8.61	3.36	1.19	0.43	0.15
MIA	1-3	0.427	0.49	3.55	1.49	0.53	0.20	0.07
JAC	1-4	0.409	6.03	7.03	2.57	0.86	0.30	0.10
CHI	2-3	0.400	1.35	7.66	2.77	0.88	0.29	0.10
DET	0-5	0.399	0.18	0.83	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
SF	1-4	0.385	0.78	2.38	0.81	0.25	0.08	0.03

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]

October Card Show Autographs

I've become a regular at the monthly card shows, though I haven't been buying all that many cards. What I do buy is autograph tickets.

Ken Oberkfell                                                                       Tito Landrum

Curtis Joseph and Keith Tkachuk were both at the show too, and combined with these two members of the 1982 World Champions, they drew quite a crowd. I was pretty surprised how long Tito Landrum's line was. The gentleman after me had paid for 13 autographs, and woke up at 3am to drive in from Arkansas.

I spotted a Tito Landrum autograph at All Cardinals All the Time a while ago, and it turns out it came from the same show. He also mentioned the next person in line had 20 or so items for Tito to sign, too. Tito was really friendly and joked with the fans, which I always appreciate. Ken Oberkfell seemed a little less enthusiastic to be there, but not grumpy, just maybe a bit overwhelmed. I did learn from him that he had twins in September of 1982, right before winning the World Series, so that was quite a good year for him and his family.

The lineup isn't too compelling for the November show, so I may be taking a month off, but I've already got my advance tickets for December. I'm going to need to get some more baseballs by then.

2015 World Series Projection, October 16

Toronto over Chicago

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	66.02	43.88
CHI	0.5575	51.71	20.55
KC	0.5560	33.98	17.16
NYM	0.5498	48.29	18.41

New York won game 5 by a run, and advances to the NLCS. As I mentioned before, Chicago is the favorite in the series, though just barely. Toronto is still the AL favorite, so my projection remains Toronto over Chicago. There's no time off when series go the full length, and the ALCS starts tonight. I'll root for the underdog yet higher-seeded Kansas City.

2015 World Series Projection, October 15

Toronto over Chicago

League Championship Series
KC 0-0 TOR
CHI 0-0 tbd

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 2-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	100.00	66.02	43.79
CHI	0.5575	100.00	51.40	20.43
KC	0.5560	100.00	33.98	17.11
LAD	0.5526	50.28	24.59	9.52
NYM	0.5498	49.72	24.01	9.16

Toronto and Kansas City both won game 5s at home to advance to the ALCS, and Toronto remains the favorite, now 66% likely to make it to the World Series. We'll find out the opponent for Chicago in the NLCS tonight. The NLCS will be nearly a tossup either way, but an LA win would make it as close as possible.

2015 World Series Projection, October 14

Toronto over Chicago

Division Series
TEX 2-2 TOR
HOU 2-2 KC
NYM 2-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	61.82	39.50	26.20
HOU	0.5757	52.01	24.94	13.65
CHI	0.5575	100.00	51.40	22.78
KC	0.5560	47.99	21.03	10.59
LAD	0.5526	50.28	24.59	10.64
NYM	0.5498	49.72	24.01	10.25
TEX	0.5112	38.18	14.54	5.90

The Cardinals have spoiled me over the last 5 years, to the point that this NLDS exit felt disappointing. But 100 wins and a playoff appearance is an outstanding season for many teams, so I won't complain. In the other NLDS, LA tied up the series, which will have a deciding game 5 tomorrow. Chicago will start out the NLCS favored over either opponent they may face. Both ALDS game 5s are tonight. I'll be rooting for Kansas City and Toronto, but an all-Texas ALCS could be interesting too, so mostly I'll just enjoy the games.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 5, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Cincinnati's divisional chances went down a bit due to Pittsburgh's win, and now they lead the AFC by just the slimmest of margins over New England, with Denver still just behind in 3rd. The NFC was relatively unaffected, with most movement coming from teams in the West that will face Pittsburgh this year, or the North who will face San Diego. For example, because the Rams have already faced Pittsburgh and Arizona hasn't, and Pittsburgh got stronger, Arizona's divisional chances dropped by 0.05%, and St. Louis's went up by as much. Of course, some of that movement could be due to the random nature of the simulations I run, but at least part of it is significant.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	4-1	0.626	80.61	89.32	69.55	39.30	22.09	12.38
GB	5-0	0.603	88.61	96.23	82.27	44.76	23.79	12.76
NE	4-0	0.596	56.75	88.44	69.76	38.07	20.45	10.54
NYJ	3-1	0.584	31.36	74.82	52.63	27.47	14.36	7.23
CIN	5-0	0.581	78.69	91.40	75.13	39.95	20.66	10.33
ATL	5-0	0.579	60.88	95.17	75.58	39.06	19.38	9.91
DEN	5-0	0.577	89.39	93.14	74.96	39.39	20.17	10.00
CAR	4-0	0.570	37.87	83.98	57.94	28.76	14.02	7.04
PIT	3-2	0.553	16.62	42.84	25.82	12.47	6.05	2.85
NYG	3-2	0.544	51.67	59.82	33.25	15.10	6.95	3.31
BUF	3-2	0.538	11.40	50.05	29.24	13.62	6.42	2.93
PHI	2-3	0.530	20.82	28.58	14.53	6.38	2.85	1.32
SEA	2-3	0.529	11.85	28.68	14.45	6.42	2.89	1.33
TEN	1-3	0.521	29.82	32.76	16.05	7.13	3.21	1.41
MIN	2-2	0.517	9.85	35.04	18.24	7.86	3.44	1.55
WAS	2-3	0.484	16.04	24.46	11.15	4.39	1.76	0.74
BAL	1-4	0.475	1.05	4.78	2.14	0.85	0.35	0.14
CLE	2-3	0.474	3.64	10.41	5.06	2.04	0.84	0.33
IND	3-2	0.469	56.55	58.65	26.59	10.48	4.19	1.63
SD	2-3	0.467	6.09	14.66	6.75	2.66	1.07	0.41
OAK	2-3	0.466	3.28	13.22	6.03	2.37	0.95	0.37
KC	1-4	0.454	1.24	5.57	2.39	0.91	0.35	0.13
DAL	2-3	0.442	11.48	15.93	6.55	2.32	0.84	0.32
STL	2-3	0.435	6.77	17.22	6.85	2.42	0.87	0.32
TB	2-3	0.435	1.01	11.90	4.77	1.66	0.59	0.22
NO	1-4	0.429	0.24	2.82	1.07	0.36	0.13	0.05
HOU	1-4	0.428	7.60	8.67	3.38	1.20	0.43	0.15
MIA	1-3	0.428	0.49	3.56	1.49	0.53	0.20	0.07
JAC	1-4	0.409	6.03	7.03	2.57	0.86	0.30	0.10
CHI	2-3	0.400	1.36	7.70	2.74	0.87	0.29	0.10
DET	0-5	0.399	0.18	0.83	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
SF	1-4	0.385	0.77	2.33	0.78	0.24	0.08	0.02

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 13

Toronto over Chicago

Division Series
TEX 2-2 TOR
HOU 2-2 KC
NYM 2-1 LAD
CHI 2-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	61.82	39.50	25.66
STL	0.5954	29.02	17.39	9.13
HOU	0.5757	52.01	24.94	13.29
CHI	0.5575	70.98	36.60	16.22
KC	0.5560	47.99	21.03	10.29
LAD	0.5526	25.28	11.75	5.08
NYM	0.5498	74.72	34.27	14.63
TEX	0.5112	38.18	14.54	5.71

In a single day's games, both league favorites were supplanted, and Toronto is back on top. St. Louis and Los Angeles will need to pull off road victories today to stay alive, and avoid having an NLCS of a third place team vs the third best division winner. That's a cynical way to look at the very strong NL Central this year, but it's not inaccurate. Today I'll be rooting for LA, simply to take the other series to 5 games and avoid any rest advantage should St. Louis win their series.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

The positions shuffled a bit, but Green Bay and Cincinnati stayed on top of their conferences and move to 5-0 on the season. New England and Denver are just behind Cincinnati, giving the 3 teams a combined 62% of the AFC Championship outcomes. Green Bay, Arizona, and Atlanta combine for 65% of the NFC outcomes. But other teams are certainly still in play, and every team is still mathematically in reach of the playoffs.

I usually say something about the Rams here. They lost again, but they put up a decent fight against Green Bay. Unfortunately this isn't college, and a well-performed loss is nothing but a loss.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	4-1	0.626	80.66	89.37	69.62	39.34	22.12	12.42
GB	5-0	0.603	88.57	96.21	82.19	44.71	23.76	12.76
NE	4-0	0.596	56.73	88.42	69.76	38.18	20.56	10.59
NYJ	3-1	0.584	31.38	75.05	52.82	27.64	14.49	7.29
CIN	5-0	0.581	82.41	92.11	76.21	40.67	21.08	10.54
ATL	5-0	0.579	60.88	95.17	75.58	39.04	19.37	9.93
DEN	5-0	0.577	86.65	92.35	74.71	39.39	20.20	10.01
CAR	4-0	0.570	37.87	83.95	57.93	28.76	14.01	7.05
PIT	2-2	0.544	12.41	31.79	18.59	8.82	4.22	1.96
NYG	3-2	0.544	51.69	59.82	33.25	15.10	6.95	3.32
BUF	3-2	0.538	11.41	50.40	29.47	13.74	6.49	2.96
PHI	2-3	0.530	20.81	28.56	14.52	6.38	2.85	1.32
SEA	2-3	0.529	11.85	28.76	14.50	6.44	2.90	1.34
TEN	1-3	0.521	29.76	32.77	16.16	7.18	3.25	1.43
MIN	2-2	0.517	9.89	35.11	18.28	7.89	3.45	1.55
WAS	2-3	0.484	16.03	24.44	11.14	4.39	1.76	0.74
BAL	1-4	0.475	1.16	4.90	2.19	0.88	0.36	0.14
SD	2-2	0.475	9.14	24.60	12.10	4.89	2.00	0.79
CLE	2-3	0.474	4.02	10.61	5.15	2.09	0.86	0.34
IND	3-2	0.469	56.68	58.82	26.84	10.60	4.25	1.66
OAK	2-3	0.466	3.07	13.27	6.07	2.38	0.96	0.37
KC	1-4	0.454	1.14	5.59	2.40	0.91	0.36	0.13
DAL	2-3	0.442	11.47	15.92	6.54	2.32	0.84	0.32
STL	2-3	0.435	6.72	17.19	6.84	2.41	0.87	0.32
TB	2-3	0.435	1.01	11.90	4.76	1.66	0.59	0.22
NO	1-4	0.429	0.24	2.81	1.07	0.36	0.13	0.05
HOU	1-4	0.428	7.59	8.68	3.41	1.21	0.44	0.15
MIA	1-3	0.428	0.48	3.64	1.53	0.55	0.20	0.07
JAC	1-4	0.409	5.98	7.01	2.58	0.87	0.30	0.10
CHI	2-3	0.400	1.35	7.64	2.72	0.86	0.28	0.10
DET	0-5	0.399	0.18	0.83	0.29	0.09	0.03	0.01
SF	1-4	0.385	0.77	2.32	0.78	0.24	0.08	0.02

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 12

St. Louis over Houston

Division Series
TEX 2-1 TOR
HOU 2-1 KC
NYM 1-1 LAD
CHI 1-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	38.22	24.03	15.28
STL	0.5954	55.79	33.35	18.38
HOU	0.5757	76.96	41.60	21.56
CHI	0.5575	44.21	22.72	10.65
KC	0.5560	23.04	11.49	5.46
LAD	0.5526	50.42	22.30	10.22
NYM	0.5498	49.58	21.63	9.78
TEX	0.5112	61.78	22.88	8.67

Both Texas teams are up 2-1 now, and I'm sure they're rooting for each other to earn a few easier travel days.

Days with 4 LDS games are my favorite baseball days of the year, aside from my home team being in the World Series. We only get one of these for sure, when one league is playing game 1s and the other is playing game 2s. As long as no one in the early league sweeps, there is a second 4-game day, today, with game 4s from the early league and game 3s from the other. And yet, I foolishly did not call in sick to stay home and watch 4 games today. What was I thinking?

Both NLDS will have at least one more game, but the AL could be all wrapped up by the time west-coasters get off work today. My projection favors Houston to finish their series, but Toronto to extend it to game 5.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

The real polls weren't shaken up all that much this week, but in the Wilson Rankings, #1 Northwestern lost and dropped to #9. Somewhat curiously the team that beat them, Michigan, is only #10, despite identical records. Florida is the new #1, up from #2 with a win over Missouri.

Speaking of my adopted home team, Missouri, they dropped from #28 to #42, and are now in the territory where we're just hoping to be bowl eligible.

Revisiting my season-long what-if, if LSU had won their opener against McNeese State instead of it being canceled, they'd rise from #13 to #2, and #2-#12 would all fall one spot. This week, the only other change in the whole 128 team ranking would be that UCLA would tie Oklahoma for #31, instead of being #32. That's fairly stable, because as LSU wins more, their "missing" win is affecting their opponents much less. Of course, it's affecting LSU by 11 whole positions.

1	Florida	6-0
2	Iowa	6-0
3	Ohio State	6-0
4	TCU	6-0
5	Oklahoma State	6-0
6	Michigan State	6-0
7	Utah	5-0
8	California	5-1
9	Northwestern	5-1
10	Michigan	5-1
11	Clemson	5-0
12	Texas A&M	5-0
13	LSU	5-0
14	Alabama	5-1
15	Florida State	5-0
16	Temple	5-0
17	Penn State	5-1
18	Notre Dame	5-1
19	Ohio	5-1
20	Ole Miss	5-1
21	Baylor	5-0
22	Western Kentucky	5-1
23	Toledo	5-0
24	Memphis	5-0
25	Duke	5-1
26	Boise State	5-1
27	Houston	5-0
28	Marshall	5-1
29	BYU	4-2
30	Indiana	4-2
31	Oklahoma	4-1
32	UCLA	4-1
33	Pittsburgh	4-1
34	Kentucky	4-1
35	Navy	4-1
36	Stanford	4-1
37	Minnesota	4-2
38	North Carolina	4-1
39	Arizona State	4-2
40	Illinois	4-2
41	Texas Tech	4-2
42	Missouri	4-2
43	Arizona	4-2
44	Mississippi State	4-2
45	Georgia	4-2
46	Georgia Southern	4-1
47	Wisconsin	4-2
48	Louisiana Tech	4-2
49	NC State	4-2
50	Bowling Green	4-2
51	Auburn	3-2
52	West Virginia	3-2
53	Tennessee	3-3
54	Appalachian State	4-1
55	Washington	3-2
56	Kansas State	3-2
57	Virginia Tech	3-3
58	Miami (FL)	3-2
59	East Carolina	3-3
60	USC	3-2
61	Cincinnati	3-2
62	Air Force	3-2
63	Utah State	3-2
64	Washington State	3-2
65	San Diego State	3-3
66	Oregon	3-3
67	Wake Forest	3-3
68	Tulsa	3-2
69	South Alabama	3-2
70	Syracuse	3-2
71	Boston College	3-3
72	Akron	3-3
73	Texas	2-4
74	Nevada	3-3
75	San Jose State	3-3
76	Connecticut	3-3
77	Northern Illinois	3-3
78	Louisville	2-3
79	Oregon State	2-3
80	Georgia Tech	2-4
81	Arkansas	2-4
82	Maryland	2-4
83	Rice	3-3
84	Colorado	3-3
85	Florida Intl	3-3
86	Southern Mississippi	3-3
87	Nebraska	2-4
88	Western Michigan	2-3
89	South Carolina	2-4
90	Iowa State	2-3
91	New Mexico	3-3
92	Vanderbilt	2-3
93	Hawaii	2-4
94	South Florida	2-3
95	Rutgers	2-3
96	UNLV	2-4
97	Central Michigan	2-4
98	Arkansas State	2-3
99	Old Dominion	2-3
100	Buffalo	2-3
101	Kent State	2-4
102	Tulane	2-3
103	Ball State	2-4
104	Middle Tennessee	2-4
105	Louisiana Lafayette	2-3
106	Colorado State	2-4
107	Virginia	1-4
108	Troy	1-4
109	Purdue	1-5
110	Charlotte	2-3
111	Massachusetts	1-4
112	SMU	1-5
113	UTEP	2-4
114	Idaho	1-4
115	Texas State	1-4
116	Louisiana Monroe	1-4
117	Fresno State	1-5
118	Army	1-5
119	Texas San Antonio	1-5
120	Miami (OH)	1-5
121	Florida Atlantic	1-4
122	Georgia State	1-4
123	Eastern Michigan	1-5
124	Kansas	0-5
125	North Texas	0-5
126	New Mexico State	0-5
127	UCF	0-6
128	Wyoming	0-6

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern

2015 World Series Projection, October 11

St. Louis over Houston

Division Series
TEX 2-0 TOR
HOU 1-1 KC
NYM 1-1 LAD
CHI 1-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	23.63	15.08	9.59
STL	0.5954	55.79	33.35	19.21
HOU	0.5757	53.01	30.65	15.89
CHI	0.5575	44.21	22.72	11.23
KC	0.5560	46.99	25.22	11.97
LAD	0.5526	50.42	22.30	10.78
NYM	0.5498	49.58	21.63	10.32
TEX	0.5112	76.37	29.05	11.01

Both NLDSs are now 1-1, but the projection didn't change, it just became much less certain. St. Louis is still the most likely team to come out of the NL, and of course there was no movement for the AL. We could see an early and unexpected elimination of Toronto tonight, but Kansas City and Houston will have to play at least Monday to finish out their series.

Yesterday a commenter mentioned that Elias Sports Bureau had some very different numbers. I couldn't figure out where to find those numbers, but he gave examples. I'll reiterate this is a very simple, very averaged model. For example, I don't give St. Louis any better or worse chances when it's Lackey or Garcia pitching (not to pick on Garcia). I also don't bump their odds either way if they are facing a lefty and loading the lineup with right handers, for example. I just account for the average regular season performance of both teams. That's not to say this is necessarily the right model, just that it's a fun and simple toy for me to play with.

2015 World Series Projection, October 10

St. Louis over Houston

Division Series
TEX 2-0 TOR
HOU 1-1 KC
NYM 1-0 LAD
CHI 0-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	23.63	15.08	9.46
STL	0.5954	74.32	44.50	25.64
HOU	0.5757	53.01	30.65	15.61
CHI	0.5575	25.68	13.23	6.54
KC	0.5560	46.99	25.22	11.74
LAD	0.5526	31.67	13.52	6.53
NYM	0.5498	68.33	28.75	13.72
TEX	0.5112	76.37	29.05	10.76

St. Louis had the best possible night last night, with a win and 3 field-weakening upsets. Toronto's on the verge of early elimination after the AL's off day today, and Kansas City tied the series with Houston. New York is just slightly weaker than Los Angeles, but they pulled off a road victory, something that tips things their way in a short series.

Like I said earlier, the AL is off today, so St. Louis and New York will try to extend their leads tonight.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

With a game between the 25th and 26th best teams, not much changed at the top. Cincinnati isn't quite as favored as before, but in the end, the overall projection is the same. Once St. Louis defeats Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay on Sunday, though, things will change for sure.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-1	0.598	62.85	78.33	59.27	32.81	18.01	9.87
NYJ	3-1	0.584	41.16	76.25	56.89	31.09	16.84	8.85
GB	4-0	0.575	81.22	90.01	72.88	38.74	20.19	10.59
CIN	4-0	0.574	76.22	88.25	72.52	39.25	20.78	10.70
CAR	4-0	0.570	46.59	83.12	61.51	32.07	16.49	8.55
ATL	4-0	0.566	51.41	88.32	67.41	34.90	17.76	9.14
NE	3-0	0.562	46.64	78.89	58.84	30.61	15.79	7.94
DEN	4-0	0.559	74.62	84.85	67.17	35.02	17.82	8.91
PIT	2-2	0.544	16.39	35.21	21.74	10.74	5.31	2.58
NYG	2-2	0.540	41.09	49.44	28.59	13.60	6.51	3.18
SEA	2-2	0.537	20.08	38.00	22.01	10.51	5.04	2.45
BUF	2-2	0.533	11.34	39.15	23.58	11.33	5.48	2.60
TEN	1-2	0.520	35.08	40.45	22.12	10.24	4.78	2.20
MIN	2-2	0.517	15.90	35.43	20.14	9.21	4.23	1.97
WAS	2-2	0.498	24.42	34.81	18.69	8.10	3.54	1.58
DAL	2-2	0.489	25.71	32.09	16.31	6.92	2.96	1.30
PHI	1-3	0.482	8.78	12.44	5.94	2.48	1.05	0.45
OAK	2-2	0.480	10.29	24.85	13.15	5.60	2.41	1.01
BAL	1-3	0.479	4.01	11.38	5.61	2.38	1.03	0.43
SD	2-2	0.475	11.88	26.38	13.87	5.84	2.47	1.03
IND	3-2	0.469	50.22	54.19	26.61	10.97	4.56	1.88
CLE	1-3	0.467	3.39	7.47	3.71	1.54	0.65	0.26
STL	2-2	0.466	15.51	30.45	15.58	6.34	2.59	1.08
NO	1-3	0.465	1.23	8.42	3.88	1.56	0.64	0.26
KC	1-3	0.460	3.22	10.30	4.86	1.96	0.80	0.32
DET	0-4	0.436	1.10	3.02	1.30	0.49	0.19	0.07
HOU	1-4	0.428	6.31	7.63	3.19	1.19	0.45	0.17
MIA	1-3	0.428	0.87	4.37	1.94	0.72	0.28	0.10
TB	1-3	0.422	0.76	6.70	2.79	1.01	0.37	0.14
JAC	1-3	0.416	8.38	10.39	4.21	1.51	0.55	0.20
CHI	1-3	0.410	1.78	5.25	2.09	0.73	0.26	0.09
SF	1-3	0.394	1.57	4.17	1.61	0.54	0.19	0.06

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]

2015 World Series Projection, October 9

St. Louis over Houston

Division Series
TEX 1-0 TOR
HOU 1-0 KC
NYM 0-0 LAD
CHI 0-0 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	50.69	31.97	20.31
STL	0.5954	57.22	34.20	18.34
HOU	0.5757	71.70	36.44	18.86
CHI	0.5575	42.78	21.99	9.98
KC	0.5560	28.30	13.21	6.26
LAD	0.5526	50.53	22.29	9.88
NYM	0.5498	49.47	21.52	9.42
TEX	0.5112	49.31	18.37	6.95

The road teams won both ALDS games last night, with different effects on my projections.

Houston was already favored, so their 1-0 lead gives them a 71% chance at making the ALCS. Texas also has a 1-0 lead, but being the weakest team of the 10 coming into the playoffs and playing the strongest, I still have them as just under 50% likely to win the series. But, they knocked Toronto down enough to make Houston the new AL favorite, and thus make St. Louis the new World Series favorite.

Tonight the NLDS starts, and I'll of course be rooting for St. Louis. As for New York vs Los Angeles, I feel like New York would be the easier team to beat, so I'll root for them, but no matter who wins I don't think the road through the playoffs is going to be easy for anyone.

eBay Wins #195

Today I've got a 6-pack of cards slightly older than me, from 1981 Topps.

I think I've mentioned this before, but I keep my collection in sleeves in 3-row boxes, sorted by year. I'm always extra pleased to add a card to the first box, and especially pleased to add them to the first row. Right now that first row is any card pre-1985. It only takes 1988 - and alphabetically earlier than Topps - to make the first box, so that's not as difficult to accomplish.

1981 Topps
#177 Rick Peters
#178 Jim Essian
#183 Dick Davis
#342 Eric Rasmussen
#346 Larry Christenson
#349 Glenn Hoffman

Of these 6, only Eric Rasmussen played for the Cardinals, though well before I would remember him. He played for St. Louis from 1975-1978, and like I've said before, I started paying attention to baseball in 1992. I don't know much about the other players, but I was curious whether Glenn Hoffman could have been related to Trevor Hoffman. Sure enough, they are brothers, with Glenn about 10 years older.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3375
Total Spent	$52.23
Per Card	1.548 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

2015 World Series Projection, October 8

Toronto over St. Louis

Division Series
TEX 0-0 TOR
HOU 0-0 KC
NYM 0-0 LAD
CHI 0-0 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	71.35	45.53	28.92
STL	0.5954	57.22	34.20	17.52
HOU	0.5757	53.76	24.45	12.66
CHI	0.5575	42.78	21.99	9.46
KC	0.5560	46.24	19.13	9.07
LAD	0.5526	50.53	22.29	9.35
NYM	0.5498	49.47	21.52	8.91
TEX	0.5112	28.65	10.89	4.12

By the numbers, Chicago's win over Pittsburgh was an upset, so everyone's chances go up, except for Pittsburgh of course.

Today both of the ALDSs start. I don't have strong feelings for or against any of the 4 teams involved. Toronto and Houston have the longest droughts without a World series appearance, so I'll root for them I suppose. Toronto is the heavy favorite, though, so I wouldn't mind seeing them out early to improve St. Louis's chances.

2015 World Series Projection, October 7

Toronto over St. Louis

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 0-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	100.00	71.35	45.53	28.77
STL	0.5954	100.00	55.84	33.37	17.10
HOU	0.5757	100.00	53.76	24.45	12.57
PIT	0.5718	51.45	23.40	12.77	5.88
CHI	0.5575	48.55	20.77	10.67	4.59
KC	0.5560	100.00	46.24	19.13	9.00
LAD	0.5526	100.00	50.53	21.97	9.22
NYM	0.5498	100.00	49.47	21.21	8.78
TEX	0.5112	100.00	28.65	10.89	4.08

I had Houston ranked as the better team, and they pulled off a win in Yankee Stadium to make it to the ALDS. I should mention one more caveat, that home field advantage doesn't come into play in these numbers. It's a real advantage, it's just more complex than my model gets. So mentally bump the home team up a bit in each game.

As for the NL Wild Card, the winner will play St. Louis, so I'm interested, but not really rooting for either side. St. Louis was 11-8 against Chicago this year, and 10-9 against Pittsburgh, so I suppose, being a numbers guy, I'll hope for a Chicago win for one of the few times in my life.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 4, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

I shouldn't have doubted Detroit last night. They very nearly pulled off the win against Seattle, and like would have if not for a bad call near the end of the game. You've gotta at least pretend to be trying to control a football when you bat it, otherwise that's supposed to be a penalty. Detroit will get another shot to get their first win next week. With Seattle only improving to 2-2, nothing really changed at the top, and my Superbowl favorites are still only the 3rd and 4th strongest teams

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-1	0.598	62.83	78.29	59.21	32.78	17.99	9.86
NYJ	3-1	0.584	41.00	76.21	56.98	31.15	16.88	8.87
GB	4-0	0.575	81.22	90.00	72.86	38.72	20.19	10.59
CIN	4-0	0.574	75.99	88.20	72.61	39.35	20.83	10.73
CAR	4-0	0.570	46.61	83.28	61.66	32.16	16.53	8.58
ATL	4-0	0.566	51.41	88.45	67.53	34.95	17.79	9.15
NE	3-0	0.562	46.85	79.13	59.28	30.87	15.92	8.01
DEN	4-0	0.559	74.77	85.10	67.73	35.35	17.99	9.00
PIT	2-2	0.544	16.58	35.72	22.13	10.94	5.42	2.63
NYG	2-2	0.540	41.08	49.42	28.56	13.57	6.50	3.18
SEA	2-2	0.537	20.08	37.96	21.97	10.49	5.03	2.45
BUF	2-2	0.533	11.28	39.10	23.64	11.36	5.50	2.60
TEN	1-2	0.520	39.22	43.27	23.55	10.89	5.08	2.34
MIN	2-2	0.517	15.90	35.38	20.10	9.19	4.22	1.97
WAS	2-2	0.498	24.44	34.79	18.67	8.10	3.53	1.58
DAL	2-2	0.489	25.71	32.06	16.29	6.91	2.96	1.30
PHI	1-3	0.482	8.78	12.42	5.93	2.47	1.04	0.45
OAK	2-2	0.480	10.23	25.06	13.33	5.68	2.44	1.03
BAL	1-3	0.479	4.03	11.52	5.70	2.42	1.05	0.44
SD	2-2	0.475	11.80	26.56	14.04	5.91	2.50	1.04
CLE	1-3	0.467	3.41	7.55	3.77	1.57	0.66	0.27
STL	2-2	0.466	15.52	30.40	15.55	6.33	2.58	1.08
NO	1-3	0.465	1.21	8.40	3.87	1.55	0.63	0.26
KC	1-3	0.460	3.20	10.48	4.98	2.00	0.82	0.33
IND	2-2	0.454	35.29	38.42	17.79	7.07	2.84	1.12
HOU	1-3	0.441	15.74	17.75	7.86	3.03	1.18	0.45
DET	0-4	0.436	1.10	3.01	1.30	0.49	0.19	0.07
MIA	1-3	0.428	0.87	4.44	1.98	0.74	0.28	0.10
TB	1-3	0.422	0.76	6.74	2.81	1.01	0.37	0.14
JAC	1-3	0.416	9.75	11.50	4.64	1.67	0.61	0.22
CHI	1-3	0.410	1.78	5.23	2.08	0.73	0.26	0.09
SF	1-3	0.394	1.56	4.16	1.60	0.54	0.18	0.06

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

The Superbowl participants both changed since Thursday, thanks to Arizona's loss to St. Louis, which was quite unexpected, and the bye week for New England. Clearly they didn't actually get worse, they just aren't as proven at 3-0 as Cincinnati is at 4-0. Again, this is a case where my change of regression by the total games played out of 256 instead of team games played out of 16 would even out the glitch. I'm leaning more and more towards making that change, maybe after all the bye weeks this year.

As of now, Detroit is the only team without a win, though they still have Monday's game to play (or finish, by the time this posts). I'd be interested to know historically what the earliest ever week the last 0-win team picked up a win is. Good grammar. It's almost got to be at least week 3 since it's likely to have 2 0-1 teams face each other in week 2, and probably pretty rare in week 3 due to two 0-2 teams facing each other in many years. But, I don't think I'd pick Detroit to tie/set that record tonight by setting the mark at week 4. Seattle should hand them loss number 4.

As I mentioned, the Rams pulled off a big upset, and are now 2-0 in the NFC West. Something about this team makes them play their division games very tough. If we could just spread that magic to games against a few others, they'd have a real playoff shot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-1	0.598	66.52	79.78	60.57	33.57	18.45	10.10
NYJ	3-1	0.585	41.01	76.20	56.97	31.15	16.88	8.88
GB	4-0	0.576	80.22	89.59	72.61	38.67	20.17	10.58
CIN	4-0	0.574	76.00	88.26	72.69	39.40	20.86	10.75
CAR	4-0	0.570	46.75	83.87	62.22	32.51	16.74	8.69
ATL	4-0	0.566	51.31	88.84	67.91	35.23	17.95	9.24
NE	3-0	0.562	46.85	79.13	59.28	30.87	15.92	8.02
DEN	4-0	0.559	74.88	85.15	67.76	35.37	18.00	9.01
PIT	2-2	0.544	16.58	35.85	22.23	10.98	5.43	2.64
NYG	2-2	0.540	41.07	49.78	28.93	13.76	6.60	3.22
BUF	2-2	0.533	11.27	39.07	23.61	11.34	5.49	2.60
SEA	1-2	0.527	14.98	28.43	15.84	7.39	3.48	1.65
TEN	1-2	0.520	39.24	43.28	23.54	10.88	5.08	2.35
MIN	2-2	0.517	15.85	35.93	20.47	9.37	4.30	2.00
WAS	2-2	0.498	24.41	35.12	18.93	8.22	3.59	1.60
DAL	2-2	0.489	25.84	32.48	16.58	7.04	3.01	1.32
PHI	1-3	0.482	8.68	12.50	5.99	2.50	1.06	0.46
OAK	2-2	0.480	10.14	24.86	13.21	5.63	2.42	1.02
BAL	1-3	0.479	4.02	11.57	5.73	2.44	1.05	0.44
SD	2-2	0.475	11.82	26.63	14.07	5.92	2.51	1.05
CLE	1-3	0.467	3.40	7.57	3.78	1.57	0.66	0.27
STL	2-2	0.466	16.75	31.41	16.04	6.53	2.67	1.11
NO	1-3	0.465	1.19	8.72	4.01	1.61	0.66	0.27
KC	1-3	0.460	3.16	10.38	4.93	1.98	0.81	0.33
IND	2-2	0.454	35.29	38.41	17.76	7.05	2.83	1.12
DET	0-3	0.450	2.22	6.83	3.15	1.23	0.49	0.19
HOU	1-3	0.441	15.72	17.73	7.84	3.02	1.18	0.45
MIA	1-3	0.427	0.87	4.42	1.97	0.74	0.28	0.10
TB	1-3	0.422	0.75	6.97	2.90	1.04	0.38	0.14
JAC	1-3	0.415	9.75	11.49	4.63	1.66	0.61	0.22
CHI	1-3	0.409	1.72	5.34	2.13	0.74	0.26	0.10
SF	1-3	0.394	1.76	4.42	1.70	0.57	0.20	0.07

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]

2015 World Series Projection, October 5

Toronto over St. Louis

Wildcard Round
HOU 0-0 NYY
CHI 0-0 PIT

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
TOR	0.6287	100.00	71.35	46.71	29.52
STL	0.5954	100.00	55.84	33.37	17.30
HOU	0.5757	53.45	28.73	13.07	6.72
PIT	0.5718	51.45	23.40	12.77	5.96
CHI	0.5575	48.55	20.77	10.67	4.66
KC	0.5560	100.00	49.26	20.38	9.59
LAD	0.5526	100.00	50.53	21.97	9.36
NYM	0.5498	100.00	49.47	21.21	8.91
NYY	0.5416	46.55	22.01	8.46	3.72
TEX	0.5112	100.00	28.65	11.38	4.27

Last year I noticed the team strengths - calculated from runs scored, runs allowed, and adjusted for the total runs in all games this season - were more closely packed together than 2013. This year, 9 of the playoff teams seem about the same as last year, with Toronto quite the outlier at the top. Unless I did something wrong, the runs per team have gone up even above 2013 levels, to over 688.

As always, these projections are way less accurate in a shorter series, because they reflect an average version of each team over the year, including games started by the #1 and #5 starters. Even in a 7 game series it's likely that only the top 3-4 starters see action, and in half of the LDS openers, the wildcard winner will be throwing their #2 against the division winner's #1. So, caveats galore!

The first Wildcard game up is Houston at New York, and I think I'll be rooting for Houston, so I can finally solidify in my brain that they are an American League team. I still think of them as being in the NL. I eventually got over that with Milwaukee coming to the NL, and the Seattle Seahawks moving to the NFC, although in those cases both teams came to my home team's division. Now I just don't see as much of Houston as I used to. So, for my own sanity, Go Houston.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

We've still got 10 teams at 5-0, and another 10 at 4-0, so this is still anyone's season, but Northwestern maintains my #1 rank for this week. At the bottom of the pack are several 0-for teams, including some usual suspects, but also Kansas, a fact I will taunt at least 2 Jayhawk alumni coworkers with tomorrow.

Missouri beat South Carolina to get a boost back up to #28, but the team that beat them last week, Kentucky, lost to an FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. That's not going to help Kentucky, Missouri, or any other SEC team's strength of schedule.

The answer to my season-long (or at least until they lose) question about what would have happened if LSU's first game wasn't canceled is LSU at #2 this week. So Northwestern would be #1 either way.

1	Northwestern	5-0
2	Florida	5-0
3	Texas A&M	5-0
4	Iowa	5-0
5	Ohio State	5-0
6	California	5-0
7	Michigan State	5-0
8	Oklahoma State	5-0
9	TCU	5-0
10	Memphis	5-0
11	Clemson	4-0
12	Utah	4-0
13	Oklahoma	4-0
14	LSU	4-0
15	Michigan	4-1
16	Navy	4-0
17	Alabama	4-1
18	North Carolina	4-1
19	Ohio	4-1
20	Temple	4-0
21	UCLA	4-1
22	Ole Miss	4-1
23	Kentucky	4-1
24	Toledo	4-0
25	Stanford	4-1
26	Indiana	4-1
27	Illinois	4-1
28	Missouri	4-1
29	Baylor	4-0
30	Duke	4-1
31	Houston	4-0
32	Georgia	4-1
33	Florida State	4-0
34	Western Kentucky	4-1
35	NC State	4-1
36	Notre Dame	4-1
37	Penn State	4-1
38	Marshall	4-1
39	Boise State	4-1
40	Georgia Southern	4-1
41	West Virginia	3-1
42	BYU	3-2
43	Pittsburgh	3-1
44	Minnesota	3-2
45	Auburn	3-2
46	Arizona State	3-2
47	USC	3-1
48	Miami (FL)	3-1
49	Kansas State	3-1
50	Mississippi State	3-2
51	East Carolina	3-2
52	Texas Tech	3-2
53	Oregon	3-2
54	Cincinnati	3-2
55	Arizona	3-2
56	Wisconsin	3-2
57	Syracuse	3-1
58	Bowling Green	3-2
59	Louisiana Tech	3-2
60	South Alabama	3-2
61	Boston College	3-2
62	Appalachian State	3-1
63	Colorado	3-2
64	Louisville	2-3
65	Georgia Tech	2-3
66	Nebraska	2-3
67	Oregon State	2-2
68	Southern Mississippi	3-2
69	Air Force	2-2
70	South Carolina	2-3
71	Tennessee	2-3
72	Arkansas	2-3
73	Tulsa	2-2
74	Utah State	2-2
75	Virginia Tech	2-3
76	Washington	2-2
77	Central Michigan	2-3
78	Iowa State	2-2
79	San Diego State	2-3
80	New Mexico	3-2
81	Maryland	2-3
82	Connecticut	2-3
83	Arkansas State	2-3
84	Hawaii	2-3
85	Ball State	2-3
86	Wake Forest	2-3
87	Vanderbilt	2-3
88	Washington State	2-2
89	Akron	2-3
90	Old Dominion	2-3
91	San Jose State	2-3
92	UNLV	2-3
93	Middle Tennessee	2-3
94	Kent State	2-3
95	Rutgers	2-2
96	Northern Illinois	2-3
97	Buffalo	2-3
98	Tulane	2-2
99	Nevada	2-3
100	Colorado State	2-3
101	UTEP	2-3
102	Florida Intl	2-3
103	Rice	2-3
104	Texas	1-4
105	Troy	1-3
106	Virginia	1-3
107	Charlotte	2-3
108	Purdue	1-4
109	Western Michigan	1-3
110	Idaho	1-4
111	Massachusetts	1-3
112	Texas State	1-3
113	Louisiana Monroe	1-3
114	SMU	1-4
115	South Florida	1-3
116	Texas San Antonio	1-4
117	Fresno State	1-4
118	Louisiana Lafayette	1-3
119	Florida Atlantic	1-3
120	Miami (OH)	1-4
121	Army	1-4
122	Georgia State	1-3
123	Eastern Michigan	1-4
124	Kansas	0-4
125	North Texas	0-4
126	New Mexico State	0-4
127	UCF	0-5
128	Wyoming	0-5

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Arizona over New England

I spent about an hour trying to get my WiFi working tonight. Just think, you could have missed this wall of numbers. But, the tried and true method of working on Windows - that is, keep repeating the same steps over and over until it mysteriously works one time - came though for us both.

The game between Pittsburgh and Baltimore Thursday had minimal effect on the projections, which is normal for a divisional game. New England got a slight boost because the higher-rated team, Pittsburgh, took the loss and will now have a harder time catching them. Baltimore was much less of a factor to begin with at 0-3, so their win doesn't help them catch New England too much.

As for the game itself, I wonder if there's a sports book in Las Vegas taking bets on who makes the next kickoff attempt for Pittsburgh. If so, Josh Scobee's gotta be paying at least 3 to 1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-0	0.584	75.42	86.09	70.45	39.88	22.29	12.16
NE	3-0	0.562	49.39	77.30	60.04	32.11	17.07	8.96
NYJ	2-1	0.560	26.70	57.90	40.87	21.56	11.38	5.95
CIN	3-0	0.552	63.76	76.73	59.80	31.45	16.26	8.37
DEN	3-0	0.552	64.36	77.14	60.41	31.71	16.34	8.40
CAR	3-0	0.550	49.04	76.52	56.59	29.59	15.20	7.77
BUF	2-1	0.549	20.95	51.91	34.89	17.92	9.24	4.73
GB	3-0	0.545	64.76	80.02	59.86	30.90	15.74	7.97
PIT	2-2	0.545	22.46	37.34	24.23	12.37	6.28	3.19
ATL	3-0	0.529	44.89	78.04	56.27	27.98	13.73	6.74
SEA	1-2	0.527	12.66	29.09	17.03	8.32	4.10	2.00
MIN	2-1	0.525	30.59	51.92	32.97	16.13	7.88	3.84
TEN	1-2	0.520	33.86	38.21	21.79	10.43	5.00	2.41
NYG	1-2	0.511	23.05	31.78	17.84	8.36	3.95	1.87
DAL	2-1	0.500	42.52	50.77	29.71	13.64	6.27	2.90
HOU	1-2	0.490	28.74	32.35	17.49	7.86	3.54	1.60
WAS	1-2	0.490	17.58	26.17	14.38	6.45	2.91	1.31
PHI	1-2	0.488	16.85	23.63	12.63	5.64	2.54	1.14
OAK	2-1	0.484	18.84	35.41	20.94	9.35	4.16	1.86
KC	1-2	0.483	7.79	19.57	10.97	4.88	2.17	0.97
BAL	1-3	0.479	5.67	11.57	5.97	2.63	1.16	0.52
CLE	1-2	0.470	8.11	14.54	7.95	3.46	1.50	0.65
SD	1-2	0.469	9.01	17.54	9.47	4.08	1.75	0.76
STL	1-2	0.461	8.40	19.61	10.17	4.31	1.84	0.78
NO	0-3	0.456	1.40	6.01	2.85	1.18	0.50	0.21
IND	1-2	0.454	21.10	23.74	11.42	4.71	1.95	0.81
MIA	1-2	0.452	2.95	9.67	4.99	2.07	0.87	0.36
DET	0-3	0.450	2.86	7.59	3.65	1.50	0.62	0.26
TB	1-2	0.441	4.67	16.58	8.22	3.30	1.33	0.54
JAC	1-2	0.431	16.30	19.08	8.76	3.42	1.34	0.53
SF	1-2	0.425	3.51	11.75	5.46	2.11	0.83	0.32
CHI	0-3	0.421	1.79	4.45	1.91	0.72	0.28	0.11

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

September Card Show Autographs

Last weekend I attended another local card show, and this one had plenty of current Cardinals players and 1 coach/former player. Originally there were to be 7 total signers, and I bought a ticket for each. Tony Cruz was added after I purchased my tickets, so I was going to buy an autograph ticket for him on the day of the show. Right around the time Xavier Scruggs was designated for assignment a few weeks ago, I also saw a note on the website saying he would not be at this show, so I figured I could swap his ticket for a Cruz, which I did.

Tommy Pham	Kolten Wong 16
Mitch Harris 40	Jose Oquendo
Sam Tuivailala 64	Tony Cruz 48

Tommy Pham

Kolten Wong 16

Mitch Harris 40

Jose Oquendo

Sam Tuivailala 64

Tony Cruz 48

If you did the math up there, you can see I still should have had 7 autographs. Well, as it passed 11am, when all the signers were supposed to start at 9:30, 10, or 10:30, an announcement came over the PA that Pete Kozma would not be coming. The announcer wasn't very diplomatic about it either, and placed the blame squarely on Kozma's agent.

I've run out of plastic cubes for my autographed balls, so these are still in half of the box of a dozen I purchased.  I'm probably going to try to get a bunch that are identical so they stack nicely, or maybe even some multi-ball cases.

The show itself was one of the most crowded I've been to. Part of that is because there were 7 autograph tables set up in close proximity, and the lines of people were all crossing each other. It was pretty cool to meet 5 different players all in one day. Tommy Pham had the longest line by far, because his price was set back when he was called up, and he's been playing really well lately. Kolten Wong had a bit of the opposite issue, with a price set when he was really doing well, but he's been struggling a bit lately. People asked for some pretty funny inscriptions from Tommy Pham, including "Phamtastic" and "Phambino". He looked almost embarrassed to write it, but he obliged. Another interested moment came at Jose Oquendo's table. Apparently he won't sign "The Secret Weapon", I assume due to some exclusivity deal he's got. The guy in front of me purchased Jose's full uniform from the 1985 throwback game against Kansas City earlier this year, and had him sign the jersey, pants, and cap. He asked Jose to write "1985 NL Champs" on one of the items, but Jose quickly reminded him he didn't get here until 1987. He wasn't really declining, he just said "I don't want to mess up your jersey, you know?".  But the collector agreed that probably didn't make sense, and had him write something else.

All in all, it was a fun morning, and I got to meet 6 Cardinals. There should be some more opportunities to track down Pete Kozma for an autograph, if nothing else perhaps at the annual Winter Warmup run by the Cardinals.