Tenets of Wilson: 2021-11

2021-11-30

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Arizona

Washington beat Seattle on Monday, but 2 sub-.500 teams don't have much effect on the teams at the top, no matter the result this late in the season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.9	97.7	77.0	50.1	32.4	20.7
ARI	9-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	82.7	50.9	30.1	15.4
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.0	91.1	64.1	39.5	24.0	14.8
TB	8-3	0.643	95.7	99.1	66.0	36.1	19.0	8.9
CIN	7-4	0.642	46.6	83.3	53.2	28.1	13.1	6.8
DAL	7-4	0.622	89.0	95.6	57.0	28.9	14.5	6.5
GB	9-3	0.581	96.9	99.9	67.8	32.8	14.5	5.9
BAL	8-3	0.544	49.6	91.8	51.6	21.0	7.7	3.2
LAR	7-4	0.562	3.1	85.7	38.8	16.8	7.5	2.9
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.9	98.1	50.7	20.0	7.0	2.8
SF	6-5	0.558	0.4	76.2	33.4	14.3	6.3	2.4
KC	7-4	0.556	46.8	67.3	31.0	12.9	5.0	2.2
IND	6-6	0.595	3.1	43.4	21.7	9.8	4.2	2.0
DEN	6-5	0.572	28.4	46.8	21.9	9.4	3.8	1.7
MIN	5-6	0.509	3.0	47.8	18.5	6.9	2.7	0.9
PHI	5-7	0.556	5.1	29.8	13.0	5.5	2.4	0.9
NO	5-6	0.515	3.4	34.0	13.4	5.1	2.1	0.7
LAC	6-5	0.466	16.8	34.9	13.0	4.3	1.3	0.5
LV	6-5	0.438	8.0	21.6	7.5	2.3	0.7	0.2
CLE	6-6	0.474	2.7	12.8	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
WAS	5-6	0.402	5.1	17.0	5.1	1.5	0.4	0.1
PIT	5-5-1	0.417	1.1	9.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.6	4.9	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
NYG	4-7	0.395	0.8	4.0	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	5-7	0.409	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
SEA	3-8	0.462	0.0	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-6	0.320	0.3	3.8	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.0	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.289	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-9	0.297	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-9	0.274	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated from a division: Detroit (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 11, Thursday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Sunday] New England over Arizona
[Week 11, Final] New England over Arizona
[Week 12, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Arizona

2021-11-29

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

New England over Arizona

With a win on Sunday, New England took back the AFC lead from Buffalo. They're up by 1 win in the standings, but Buffalo is actually still just about 51% likely to win the division. The difference comes in New England's higher chance at a Wildcard, and their higher strength. Also, while Arizona shows a 100.0% chance of making the playoffs, that's actually just rounded up from 99.97, so they haven't quite clinched yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	8-4	0.745	48.9	97.7	77.0	50.1	32.5	20.7
ARI	9-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	82.7	50.8	30.1	15.4
BUF	7-4	0.728	51.0	91.0	64.1	39.5	24.0	14.8
TB	8-3	0.643	95.7	99.1	66.0	36.1	18.9	8.9
CIN	7-4	0.642	46.6	83.3	53.2	28.1	13.1	6.8
DAL	7-4	0.622	90.7	96.0	57.2	29.1	14.6	6.5
GB	9-3	0.581	96.9	99.9	67.8	32.7	14.5	5.9
BAL	8-3	0.544	49.6	91.8	51.6	21.0	7.7	3.2
LAR	7-4	0.562	3.1	85.5	38.5	16.7	7.4	2.9
TEN	8-4	0.525	96.9	98.1	50.7	20.0	7.0	2.8
SF	6-5	0.558	0.4	75.7	33.0	14.1	6.3	2.4
KC	7-4	0.556	46.8	67.3	31.0	12.9	5.0	2.2
IND	6-6	0.595	3.1	43.4	21.7	9.8	4.2	2.0
DEN	6-5	0.572	28.4	46.8	21.9	9.4	3.8	1.7
MIN	5-6	0.509	3.0	49.4	19.1	7.1	2.8	1.0
PHI	5-7	0.556	5.3	30.6	13.4	5.6	2.5	1.0
NO	5-6	0.515	3.4	34.6	13.6	5.2	2.1	0.7
LAC	6-5	0.466	16.8	34.9	12.9	4.3	1.3	0.5
LV	6-5	0.438	8.0	21.6	7.5	2.3	0.6	0.2
CLE	6-6	0.474	2.7	12.8	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
PIT	5-5-1	0.417	1.1	9.7	3.2	0.9	0.2	0.1
WAS	4-6	0.402	3.1	10.1	3.0	0.9	0.3	0.1
CAR	5-7	0.463	0.6	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	4.4	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.1
NYG	4-7	0.395	0.9	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	5-7	0.409	0.0	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	5-6	0.320	0.3	3.9	0.9	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.0	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.289	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-9	0.274	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-9	0.297	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-11-26

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Arizona over Buffalo

As is now tradition, we had 3 games on Thanksgiving day. Also now tradition, Detroit is messing things up for me. They hosted Chicago and lost again, but at 0-10-1 are not quite actually eliminated from the playoffs. But none of my simulations put them there. I thought maybe there was some situation where a bunch of teams would need to tie so that only 6 teams would finish ahead of them in the conference, but by monkeying with some fake data I was able to force them into the playoffs with 6 more wins and a bunch of wins by the teams that already have 7+ wins, who will have to finish ahead of them anyway. So, in short, they're more likley to win the lottery, maybe even twice, than to make the playoffs.

Dallas also hosted a game as usual, and lost to Las Vegas in overtime. They're still pretty well-favored to win their division at 84%, but a 3 game lead would have been nearly insurmountable. Vegas is only one game worse than Dallas, but stuck in a better division and only 7% likely to win it, 21% likely to make the playoffs.

The big swing of the day came when Buffalo won at New Orleans, tying them at 7-4 with New England, and also boosting their strength back up to the top in the AFC. Those two still have 2 games to play against each other, so there's a lot of uncertainty to the numbers, but Buffalo is now 60.5% likely to win the AFC East vs. New England's 39.5%, and the other teams virtually eliminated. Interestingly, New England has a bit of an easier schedule ahead, and is slightly more likely to make the playoffs, and advance out of the first weekend and second weekend. But, by that time they are likely to run into Buffalo, who is the most likely AFC team to make and/or win the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	9-2	0.683	92.6	99.9	85.6	52.9	31.6	17.0
BUF	7-4	0.728	60.5	90.3	64.1	41.3	26.4	16.3
NE	7-4	0.713	39.5	92.2	66.8	41.8	25.9	15.6
TB	7-3	0.635	87.8	95.4	59.9	32.4	16.7	8.1
DAL	7-4	0.623	83.9	94.9	56.5	29.2	14.7	6.9
TEN	8-3	0.565	95.1	98.2	67.2	30.9	12.7	5.6
GB	8-3	0.569	87.1	98.6	59.3	27.5	11.9	5.0
LAR	7-3	0.576	7.2	90.2	45.7	20.9	9.5	4.1
CIN	6-4	0.592	36.5	65.4	36.8	17.6	7.8	3.7
IND	6-5	0.608	4.9	58.1	31.0	15.2	7.1	3.5
BAL	7-3	0.531	43.8	76.3	39.0	15.9	6.1	2.5
KC	7-4	0.556	43.3	66.6	32.2	13.9	5.7	2.5
PHI	5-6	0.564	13.2	50.7	23.1	10.0	4.5	1.9
SF	5-5	0.545	0.2	50.6	22.0	9.0	3.9	1.5
MIN	5-5	0.523	12.7	60.7	25.5	10.0	4.1	1.5
LAC	6-4	0.492	34.7	55.1	23.9	8.9	3.1	1.2
DEN	5-5	0.539	15.2	27.6	12.3	5.1	2.0	0.8
NO	5-6	0.515	6.2	27.9	11.4	4.4	1.8	0.7
CLE	6-5	0.486	11.9	26.0	10.1	3.7	1.3	0.5
PIT	5-4-1	0.476	7.7	23.2	9.3	3.3	1.1	0.4
CAR	5-6	0.513	5.7	15.7	6.5	2.5	1.0	0.4
LV	6-5	0.438	6.9	20.6	7.3	2.4	0.7	0.2
WAS	4-6	0.402	2.6	8.2	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.1
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYG	3-7	0.389	0.3	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-7	0.344	0.1	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	4-6	0.318	0.3	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	4-7	0.367	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-8	0.313	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-8	0.291	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-10-1	0.292	-	-	-	-	-	-

2021-11-23

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Arizona

Tampa beat New York, which lets them creep up just close enough to the top of the NFC to bring Arizona down below New England in overall Super Bowl winning chances, which makes the projection look a little less nonsensical today. So I guess... thanks, Tampa? Also, while Detroit is not eliminated, at no time during my 2 billion simulations did they win the Super Bowl. They did make the NFC title game about 1 in a million times, and won it at least a few times to make it to the Super Bowl. Clearly I need more simulations, and more decimal places in my charts.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-4	0.713	52.6	93.6	69.8	44.8	28.7	17.2
ARI	9-2	0.683	92.4	99.9	83.8	51.4	30.5	17.0
BUF	6-4	0.691	47.4	80.4	52.2	31.5	18.8	10.8
DAL	7-3	0.629	88.6	96.9	61.9	32.9	16.7	8.3
TB	7-3	0.635	82.5	94.5	58.3	31.1	16.0	8.1
TEN	8-3	0.565	95.1	98.4	67.9	31.8	13.6	6.0
GB	8-3	0.569	87.2	98.2	56.9	26.0	11.3	4.9
LAR	7-3	0.576	7.4	89.0	44.4	20.1	9.2	4.1
CIN	6-4	0.592	36.5	67.1	38.3	18.6	8.6	4.0
IND	6-5	0.608	4.9	61.5	33.2	16.6	8.1	3.9
KC	7-4	0.556	44.5	68.7	34.0	15.1	6.4	2.8
BAL	7-3	0.531	43.8	77.7	40.1	16.8	6.7	2.7
PHI	5-6	0.564	9.8	46.8	21.1	9.1	4.1	1.8
NO	5-5	0.561	12.2	42.6	19.4	8.4	3.7	1.6
SF	5-5	0.545	0.2	48.0	20.7	8.5	3.6	1.5
MIN	5-5	0.523	12.8	57.4	23.9	9.3	3.8	1.5
LAC	6-4	0.492	35.9	57.9	25.4	9.7	3.5	1.3
DEN	5-5	0.539	16.1	29.2	13.3	5.7	2.3	1.0
CLE	6-5	0.486	12.0	27.6	11.1	4.2	1.5	0.5
PIT	5-4-1	0.476	7.7	25.2	10.3	3.8	1.3	0.5
CAR	5-6	0.513	5.1	14.3	5.8	2.2	0.9	0.3
LV	5-5	0.430	3.5	12.2	4.3	1.4	0.4	0.1
WAS	4-6	0.402	1.5	6.7	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	3-7	0.389	0.1	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	4-6	0.318	0.2	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	4-7	0.367	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.346	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-8	0.313	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-8	0.291	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-9-1	0.304	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-

2021-11-22

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

New England over Arizona

Buffalo lost again, ruining their shot at taking back the AFC lead. In the NFC, Arizona won to be the first team to 9 wins, and a 99.9% chance at making the playoffs. Detroit lost their 8th game, which gives us our first division elimination of the year, which is two weeks later than last year.

In case you think I've made a mistake, allow me to explain the chart and projection. The table is sorted by chances to win the Super Bowl, but the "projection" I make involves both the AFC and NFC winner. So, while Arizona is the most likely champion overall, if they were matched up against the AFC favorite, New England, they would not be the favorite, because New England has the higher Strength value.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	9-2	0.684	92.4	99.9	84.8	52.6	31.7	17.6
NE	7-4	0.714	52.0	93.6	69.8	44.8	28.6	17.3
BUF	6-4	0.691	48.0	80.9	52.7	31.8	19.0	11.0
DAL	7-3	0.629	88.6	96.7	62.5	33.9	17.4	8.6
TEN	8-3	0.565	94.8	98.4	67.9	31.8	13.6	6.1
TB	6-3	0.603	73.1	88.0	49.8	24.7	12.0	5.6
GB	8-3	0.569	87.2	98.3	57.8	26.9	11.8	5.2
LAR	7-3	0.576	7.4	89.4	45.7	21.0	9.7	4.3
CIN	6-4	0.592	36.5	67.1	38.2	18.6	8.6	4.1
IND	6-5	0.608	5.2	62.4	33.7	16.9	8.2	4.0
KC	7-4	0.556	45.1	68.6	33.9	15.0	6.4	2.8
BAL	7-3	0.531	43.8	77.7	40.0	16.7	6.7	2.8
NO	5-5	0.561	18.0	44.7	21.0	9.2	4.1	1.8
PHI	5-6	0.564	9.4	44.3	20.4	8.8	4.0	1.7
SF	5-5	0.545	0.2	48.4	21.4	8.9	3.9	1.6
MIN	5-5	0.523	12.8	58.0	24.7	9.8	4.0	1.6
LAC	6-4	0.492	35.2	56.9	24.8	9.5	3.4	1.3
DEN	5-5	0.539	16.2	29.2	13.3	5.7	2.3	1.0
CLE	6-5	0.486	12.0	27.6	11.0	4.1	1.5	0.6
PIT	5-4-1	0.476	7.7	25.1	10.2	3.7	1.3	0.5
CAR	5-6	0.513	8.6	17.0	7.1	2.8	1.1	0.4
LV	5-5	0.430	3.6	12.2	4.3	1.4	0.4	0.1
WAS	4-6	0.402	1.5	6.5	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0
NYG	3-6	0.427	0.5	4.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
SEA	3-7	0.467	0.0	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	4-6	0.318	0.4	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	4-7	0.367	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-7	0.346	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-8	0.313	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	2-8	0.291	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-9-1	0.304	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

New England over Arizona

New England completely dominated Atlanta, winning 25-0. Atlanta was already the 7th worst team, with New England 3rd best. After that game, Atlanta falls just one spot, but New England has snuck up and stolen the AFC from Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	7-4	0.714	39.4	95.1	69.0	44.0	27.6	16.9
BUF	6-3	0.712	60.6	93.8	66.8	42.5	26.4	16.2
ARI	8-2	0.664	86.7	99.5	74.4	43.9	25.3	13.3
DAL	7-2	0.635	95.8	98.8	68.1	37.6	20.0	9.9
TEN	8-2	0.578	99.4	99.8	81.2	40.2	17.2	8.0
GB	8-2	0.579	94.3	99.2	66.1	32.1	14.7	6.4
TB	6-3	0.603	60.3	87.3	48.2	23.8	11.8	5.5
LAR	7-3	0.577	12.7	90.4	45.8	21.4	10.0	4.4
NO	5-4	0.585	25.9	66.0	32.9	15.5	7.4	3.3
CIN	5-4	0.559	27.4	56.0	28.1	12.2	5.2	2.3
BAL	6-3	0.525	42.2	74.1	35.4	14.1	5.5	2.3
KC	6-4	0.537	35.8	56.4	25.2	10.4	4.2	1.8
IND	5-5	0.566	0.6	36.9	18.0	8.1	3.5	1.6
DEN	5-5	0.539	20.5	35.2	15.5	6.5	2.7	1.1
MIN	4-5	0.518	5.6	42.0	17.3	6.9	2.8	1.1
CAR	5-5	0.527	13.6	36.6	15.6	6.4	2.7	1.0
PIT	5-3-1	0.482	19.9	47.7	19.8	7.2	2.5	0.9
LAC	5-4	0.484	31.1	48.2	19.2	7.0	2.5	0.9
PHI	4-6	0.547	3.4	28.0	12.2	5.2	2.3	0.9
SF	4-5	0.507	0.3	33.7	13.4	5.2	2.1	0.8
LV	5-4	0.464	12.6	30.3	11.8	4.1	1.4	0.5
CLE	5-5	0.481	10.5	25.9	9.9	3.6	1.3	0.5
SEA	3-6	0.489	0.3	7.7	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	0.4	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
WAS	3-6	0.393	0.4	3.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-6	0.357	0.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
ATL	4-6	0.318	0.2	1.6	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	3-7	0.357	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-7	0.346	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.308	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.293	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8-1	0.320	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 8, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 8, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 9, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Thursday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 10, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 10, Final] Buffalo over Arizona

2021-11-16

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

San Francisco beat LA, which only served to strengthen the position of their division rival, Arizona. They went from a 73% chance of winning the NFC West, up to 86.7%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	6-3	0.712	69.4	94.6	67.9	44.6	28.7	17.5
ARI	8-2	0.664	86.7	99.5	74.5	44.0	25.4	13.8
NE	6-4	0.671	30.6	89.5	59.3	35.0	20.3	11.5
DAL	7-2	0.636	95.8	98.8	68.2	37.7	20.1	10.3
TEN	8-2	0.578	99.4	99.8	83.3	42.2	18.9	8.8
GB	8-2	0.579	94.3	99.3	66.3	32.2	14.8	6.7
TB	6-3	0.604	60.0	86.8	47.9	23.7	11.8	5.7
LAR	7-3	0.577	12.7	90.6	45.9	21.5	10.1	4.6
NO	5-4	0.585	25.8	64.9	32.4	15.2	7.3	3.4
CIN	5-4	0.559	27.4	56.2	28.7	12.9	5.7	2.6
BAL	6-3	0.525	42.2	74.4	36.0	14.8	6.1	2.5
KC	6-4	0.537	35.8	56.8	26.2	11.1	4.7	2.0
IND	5-5	0.566	0.6	39.1	19.2	8.9	4.1	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.539	20.5	35.5	16.2	6.9	3.0	1.3
MIN	4-5	0.518	5.6	42.2	17.4	7.0	2.9	1.1
CAR	5-5	0.527	13.5	35.8	15.3	6.3	2.6	1.1
PIT	5-3-1	0.482	19.9	48.4	20.5	7.7	2.8	1.1
LAC	5-4	0.484	31.1	48.4	20.0	7.5	2.8	1.1
PHI	4-6	0.547	3.4	28.3	12.3	5.3	2.3	1.0
SF	4-5	0.507	0.2	32.8	13.0	5.1	2.0	0.8
LV	5-4	0.464	12.6	30.7	12.2	4.4	1.5	0.6
CLE	5-5	0.481	10.5	26.1	10.3	3.9	1.4	0.5
SEA	3-6	0.489	0.3	7.8	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	0.4	4.7	1.5	0.5	0.2	0.0
WAS	3-6	0.393	0.4	3.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	4-5	0.360	0.7	4.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-6	0.357	0.1	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	3-7	0.357	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-7	0.346	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.308	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.293	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8-1	0.320	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-15

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

The projection flipped again with Buffalo winning while Arizona lost this time. Both remain on top of their conferences, though. Also, we had a tie! Wait, no one's ever supposed to be excited about a tie. So much for any chance of Detroit becoming the first ever 0-17 in the first possible year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	6-3	0.712	69.4	94.6	67.8	44.5	28.6	17.4
ARI	8-2	0.664	73.0	99.4	72.8	42.5	24.3	13.2
NE	6-4	0.671	30.6	89.5	59.2	34.9	20.3	11.4
DAL	7-2	0.636	95.8	98.9	66.5	36.3	19.2	9.9
TEN	8-2	0.578	99.4	99.8	83.7	42.5	19.0	8.8
LAR	7-2	0.607	26.8	97.0	57.1	28.8	14.3	6.9
GB	8-2	0.579	94.1	99.3	64.3	30.7	14.0	6.4
TB	6-3	0.604	60.0	88.0	47.1	23.1	11.4	5.5
NO	5-4	0.585	25.7	66.5	32.5	15.1	7.2	3.3
CIN	5-4	0.559	28.2	57.1	29.2	13.1	5.8	2.6
BAL	6-3	0.525	41.3	73.7	35.6	14.6	6.0	2.5
KC	6-4	0.537	35.8	56.8	26.2	11.1	4.7	2.0
IND	5-5	0.566	0.6	39.0	19.2	8.9	4.1	1.8
DEN	5-5	0.539	20.5	35.5	16.2	6.9	3.0	1.3
MIN	4-5	0.518	5.8	44.9	18.4	7.3	3.0	1.2
CAR	5-5	0.527	13.5	37.8	15.7	6.4	2.7	1.1
PIT	5-3-1	0.482	20.0	48.4	20.4	7.7	2.8	1.0
PHI	4-6	0.547	3.4	30.6	13.2	5.6	2.5	1.0
LAC	5-4	0.484	31.1	48.3	19.9	7.5	2.8	1.0
LV	5-4	0.464	12.6	30.7	12.1	4.4	1.5	0.5
CLE	5-5	0.481	10.6	26.1	10.3	3.9	1.4	0.5
SF	3-5	0.469	0.1	14.6	5.2	1.8	0.7	0.2
SEA	3-6	0.489	0.2	7.8	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	0.4	5.5	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1
WAS	3-6	0.393	0.4	3.5	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
ATL	4-5	0.360	0.7	4.5	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-6	0.357	0.1	1.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
MIA	3-7	0.357	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-7	0.346	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-7	0.308	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.293	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8-1	0.320	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-12

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Arizona over Buffalo

Baltimore had an opportunity to gain ground on Buffalo. They were already a full game ahead of them before losing to Miami on Thursday

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	8-1	0.686	82.3	99.8	85.0	53.5	32.7	19.7
BUF	5-3	0.683	73.1	89.5	62.3	39.9	25.2	14.4
TEN	7-2	0.574	98.8	99.5	78.9	40.4	19.4	8.9
TB	6-2	0.614	69.4	95.6	58.2	30.5	15.1	7.9
LAR	7-2	0.608	17.3	97.1	58.4	29.5	14.6	7.6
NE	5-4	0.613	26.8	69.8	41.1	22.4	12.0	6.0
DAL	6-2	0.578	93.6	96.6	53.0	25.5	11.6	5.6
NO	5-3	0.588	26.6	80.6	42.3	20.0	9.5	4.7
GB	7-2	0.540	91.2	96.6	50.7	22.2	9.2	4.1
DEN	5-4	0.578	29.3	53.9	29.0	14.3	7.1	3.2
CIN	5-4	0.559	24.0	53.0	28.0	13.4	6.3	2.8
BAL	6-3	0.525	34.3	67.9	33.9	14.9	6.5	2.7
CLE	5-4	0.553	22.4	49.0	24.9	11.7	5.5	2.4
LV	5-3	0.513	25.9	54.7	27.0	11.6	4.9	2.0
LAC	5-3	0.496	32.7	56.8	26.5	10.9	4.5	1.7
IND	4-5	0.555	1.1	28.2	13.6	6.5	3.1	1.4
PIT	5-3	0.483	19.4	47.3	21.8	8.8	3.5	1.3
MIN	3-5	0.506	8.4	34.1	14.1	5.3	2.1	0.9
KC	5-4	0.489	12.0	29.3	12.6	5.1	2.1	0.8
SEA	3-5	0.524	0.3	22.5	9.7	3.8	1.6	0.7
PHI	3-6	0.516	4.5	19.9	8.4	3.2	1.3	0.6
CAR	4-5	0.473	2.3	14.9	5.7	2.0	0.7	0.3
SF	3-5	0.469	0.0	14.5	5.5	1.8	0.7	0.3
ATL	4-4	0.422	1.7	16.6	5.6	1.7	0.5	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	1.3	6.8	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
WAS	2-6	0.380	0.6	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-6	0.357	0.4	2.2	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-6	0.359	0.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	3-7	0.357	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-6	0.339	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-09

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Final

Arizona over Buffalo

Pittsburgh's narrow win over Chicago didn't shake things up for any other teams, and the projection remains the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	8-1	0.686	82.5	99.8	85.1	53.6	32.8	19.7
BUF	5-3	0.683	73.0	88.7	60.9	38.8	24.5	14.0
TEN	7-2	0.574	98.9	99.4	76.9	39.1	18.8	8.6
TB	6-2	0.614	69.3	95.6	58.2	30.5	15.1	7.9
LAR	7-2	0.608	17.2	97.1	58.3	29.5	14.6	7.6
NE	5-4	0.613	27.0	68.8	39.9	21.7	11.7	5.8
DAL	6-2	0.578	93.6	96.6	53.0	25.5	11.6	5.6
NO	5-3	0.588	26.8	80.8	42.4	20.1	9.5	4.7
BAL	6-2	0.544	49.6	82.5	47.0	21.8	9.9	4.2
GB	7-2	0.540	91.1	96.6	50.6	22.2	9.1	4.1
DEN	5-4	0.578	29.3	52.9	28.1	13.9	6.8	3.1
CIN	5-4	0.559	18.0	50.7	26.4	12.6	6.0	2.6
CLE	5-4	0.553	17.2	46.4	23.3	11.0	5.1	2.2
LV	5-3	0.513	25.9	53.3	25.9	11.1	4.7	1.9
LAC	5-3	0.496	32.7	55.9	25.7	10.6	4.3	1.6
IND	4-5	0.555	1.1	27.1	13.0	6.2	2.9	1.3
PIT	5-3	0.483	15.2	44.8	20.4	8.2	3.2	1.2
MIN	3-5	0.506	8.5	34.1	14.1	5.3	2.1	0.9
KC	5-4	0.489	12.0	28.5	12.2	4.9	2.0	0.7
SEA	3-5	0.524	0.3	22.5	9.7	3.8	1.6	0.7
PHI	3-6	0.516	4.5	19.9	8.4	3.2	1.3	0.6
CAR	4-5	0.473	2.3	15.0	5.7	2.0	0.7	0.3
SF	3-5	0.469	0.0	14.5	5.5	1.8	0.7	0.3
ATL	4-4	0.422	1.6	16.5	5.6	1.7	0.5	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	1.3	6.9	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
WAS	2-6	0.380	0.6	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	3-6	0.357	0.4	2.1	0.6	0.1	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-6	0.359	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-6	0.339	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-7	0.345	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-08

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Arizona over Buffalo

Buffalo loses for a third time, but still holds the top spot in the AFC. Arizona's win brings them to 8-1 and to the overall top position.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	8-1	0.686	82.4	99.8	85.1	53.6	32.8	19.7
BUF	5-3	0.683	73.0	89.1	61.2	39.0	24.6	14.1
TEN	7-2	0.574	98.9	99.5	77.2	39.2	18.8	8.6
TB	6-2	0.614	69.3	95.6	58.2	30.5	15.1	7.9
LAR	7-2	0.608	17.2	97.0	58.4	29.5	14.6	7.6
NE	5-4	0.613	27.0	69.5	40.3	21.9	11.8	5.8
DAL	6-2	0.578	93.6	96.6	53.0	25.5	11.6	5.6
NO	5-3	0.588	26.8	80.6	42.4	20.1	9.5	4.7
BAL	6-2	0.544	51.3	83.4	47.5	22.0	10.0	4.3
GB	7-2	0.540	90.8	96.4	50.6	22.2	9.1	4.1
DEN	5-4	0.578	29.3	53.8	28.5	14.1	6.9	3.2
CIN	5-4	0.559	18.8	51.7	26.9	12.8	6.0	2.7
CLE	5-4	0.553	18.2	47.4	23.8	11.2	5.2	2.3
LV	5-3	0.513	25.9	54.0	26.2	11.2	4.8	1.9
LAC	5-3	0.496	32.8	56.8	26.0	10.7	4.4	1.7
IND	4-5	0.555	1.1	27.8	13.3	6.4	3.0	1.3
PIT	4-3	0.477	11.7	36.8	16.3	6.5	2.5	0.9
MIN	3-5	0.506	8.5	33.9	14.0	5.2	2.1	0.9
KC	5-4	0.489	12.1	29.2	12.4	5.0	2.0	0.8
SEA	3-5	0.524	0.3	22.3	9.6	3.8	1.6	0.7
PHI	3-6	0.516	4.5	19.7	8.3	3.2	1.3	0.6
CAR	4-5	0.473	2.3	14.8	5.7	2.0	0.7	0.3
SF	3-5	0.469	0.0	14.3	5.4	1.8	0.7	0.3
ATL	4-4	0.422	1.7	16.4	5.5	1.6	0.5	0.2
NYG	3-6	0.427	1.3	6.8	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	3-5	0.359	0.7	3.7	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
WAS	2-6	0.380	0.6	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
JAC	2-6	0.359	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-6	0.339	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	2-7	0.345	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-8	0.292	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-11-05

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 9, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Indianapolis beat New York 45-30, but two sub-.500 teams rarely can do anything to affect the overall projection, and Buffalo remains on top of the AFC. But at least one interesting thing happened. That's another first-ever-in-the-NFL final score, aka, Scorigami, which just happened in Week 7 as well.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	5-2	0.666	85.2	95.7	71.1	44.5	27.6	15.5
ARI	7-1	0.666	64.5	98.7	72.9	43.0	25.1	14.7
LAR	7-1	0.621	34.8	97.6	62.8	33.1	17.2	9.3
TB	6-2	0.614	56.8	93.1	53.9	27.8	14.2	7.5
DAL	6-1	0.595	94.8	97.7	57.4	28.7	13.9	7.1
CIN	5-3	0.602	46.0	79.1	49.3	26.5	13.9	6.8
TEN	6-2	0.553	96.2	98.0	65.0	31.9	14.8	6.6
NO	5-2	0.592	38.0	85.4	45.9	22.3	10.8	5.5
GB	7-1	0.549	91.5	97.2	54.5	24.4	10.5	4.9
BAL	5-2	0.540	36.0	79.4	43.6	20.3	9.3	4.0
NE	4-4	0.578	14.7	59.4	32.1	16.2	8.1	3.8
LV	5-2	0.525	48.6	74.1	40.0	18.0	7.9	3.3
DEN	4-4	0.548	17.8	38.7	19.3	9.0	4.2	1.8
IND	4-5	0.555	3.6	33.4	16.4	7.8	3.8	1.7
LAC	4-3	0.491	24.8	48.0	21.8	9.0	3.7	1.4
PIT	4-3	0.477	10.7	42.7	18.9	7.5	3.0	1.1
MIN	3-4	0.512	8.1	36.7	15.2	6.0	2.4	1.0
CLE	4-4	0.506	7.2	28.2	12.8	5.4	2.3	0.9
PHI	3-5	0.522	4.6	24.1	10.1	4.1	1.7	0.7
CAR	4-4	0.513	4.6	22.8	9.4	3.8	1.5	0.7
KC	4-4	0.480	8.9	22.0	9.3	3.7	1.5	0.6
SEA	3-5	0.524	0.4	16.8	7.2	2.9	1.2	0.5
SF	3-4	0.494	0.3	18.4	7.3	2.8	1.1	0.4
ATL	3-4	0.419	0.5	5.5	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
NYG	2-6	0.416	0.3	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
CHI	3-5	0.358	0.4	2.5	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
WAS	2-6	0.379	0.2	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
JAC	1-6	0.368	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	2-6	0.339	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
MIA	1-7	0.345	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-7	0.315	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-8	0.331	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0