Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Houston over Atlanta

San Francisco made a big push with their shutout victory, but Atlanta remains the top NFC team and most likely to make the Superbowl. Arizona is right behind San Francisco in strength, and has a 4-0 record, something that is really keeping both teams from having a clear path. At most 1 of the 2 could have a first round bye, after all.

At the bottom of the pack, Cleveland is the first team under a 1/1000 shot of being champion, with 0-4 New Orleans right behind (or is that ahead of) them.

I was very impressed with my Rams' victory over the Seahawks, especially Greg Zuerlein, but they've still got a negative point differential that puts them near the bottom of the pack in strength, and they've got Arizona and San Francisco dominating the division right now. I still feel like this might be a playoff year, even though they currently sit at a 5.5% chance of the division and 17.6% chance of playoffs.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	4-0	0.605	91.191	96.129	86.206	50.154	28.449	15.849
ATL	4-0	0.579	90.379	92.556	75.814	41.570	22.363	11.655
SF	3-1	0.576	31.924	63.349	44.500	23.823	12.720	6.603
ARI	4-0	0.568	54.625	79.923	61.667	32.726	17.164	8.754
BAL	3-1	0.564	56.484	78.600	58.056	30.275	15.360	7.915
NE	2-2	0.564	52.180	63.128	41.617	21.166	10.750	5.540
SD	3-1	0.560	60.655	79.869	58.673	30.312	15.223	7.770
DEN	2-2	0.556	34.268	59.163	38.451	19.365	9.670	4.899
CHI	2-1	0.550	33.229	51.163	34.131	17.250	8.643	4.256
NYG	2-2	0.550	23.496	38.106	23.901	11.936	5.969	2.938
MIN	3-1	0.541	43.965	60.850	41.655	20.675	10.141	4.901
SEA	2-2	0.535	7.928	31.049	18.175	8.801	4.294	2.047
GB	2-2	0.509	18.735	30.359	17.403	8.021	3.685	1.666
PIT	1-2	0.504	13.501	29.750	16.523	7.324	3.267	1.485
CIN	3-1	0.500	29.034	58.146	34.988	15.500	6.809	3.073
WAS	2-2	0.500	20.885	30.983	17.796	7.958	3.568	1.581
MIA	1-3	0.491	12.567	21.218	10.836	4.623	2.006	0.888
DAL	2-1	0.481	26.061	36.180	20.543	8.799	3.766	1.598
TB	1-3	0.480	5.793	10.842	5.427	2.361	1.028	0.436
BUF	2-2	0.476	16.605	30.042	15.597	6.456	2.702	1.154
DET	1-3	0.476	4.071	8.671	4.348	1.851	0.792	0.331
STL	2-2	0.474	5.523	17.623	9.208	3.909	1.671	0.698
NO	0-4	0.469	1.571	3.088	1.452	0.616	0.263	0.108
IND	1-2	0.459	5.477	20.797	10.187	4.044	1.649	0.678
PHI	3-1	0.458	29.558	38.972	21.124	8.571	3.480	1.398
CLE	0-4	0.448	0.982	3.675	1.635	0.624	0.246	0.099
NYJ	2-2	0.447	18.648	27.996	13.806	5.351	2.094	0.837
CAR	1-3	0.445	2.257	6.284	2.856	1.134	0.453	0.177
KC	1-3	0.428	3.230	8.995	4.010	1.473	0.554	0.211
JAC	1-3	0.426	2.005	9.822	4.221	1.532	0.578	0.220
TEN	1-3	0.408	1.326	6.184	2.490	0.860	0.308	0.112
OAK	1-3	0.408	1.846	6.488	2.707	0.941	0.336	0.122

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]