Christmas 2011 Gifts

I just thought I'd share the sports related gifts I received for Christmas this year. First, two surprises

Rally Squirrel Long Sleeved T-Shirt

I didn't really jump on the Rally Squirrel movement, though I really enjoyed how there were plenty of cheap shirts to be had, since MLB didn't own "Rally Squirrel". Lots of people sold red shirts with squirrels and baseball-related items on it and no mention of any trademarked terms. Apparently MLB did put a shirt out anyway, and now I have one. I don't think I would have picked this out for myself, but I'll definitely wear it. It's a nice long-sleeved one too, good for those cold October night games.

2011 World Series Collector's Edition 8 DVD set

This is pretty cool, and I wasn't even aware it was available for purchase. I can now rewatch all 7 games along with the retrospective DVD with the highlights. In 2006, a friend and I actually went through the trouble of cropping the commercials out of some of the playoff games on his DVR, but we never got around to burning our creations to a DVD set. This should be good for the sporting lull between the Super Bowl and Opening Day.

Cardinals Road Cap with 2011 World Series Patch

I actually asked for all 3 caps from separate members of my family I knew would be giving me gifts (yes, even the Sunday cap that didn't get worn in the Series) but only wound up with the Road hat. I'm not sure why, I usually love when people tell me exactly what they want. No matter though, I now have proof to future generations we made the 2011 World Series.

2011 Topps World Series Champions Set

My return to card-collecting is still rather new to my family, but my wife is well aware of it due to the space I'm currently taking up in the basement getting it organized. Even so, she humored me when I spotted this set during our last minute shopping with about a week to go. I think the iconic image on the top card of Freese about to throw down his helmet cinched it for me. When she returned to Target to pick it up, there were only two left, and she grabbed one for me, and one for my nephew. I didn't think to ask who would have gotten the set if there was only one.

So, did you get any holiday gifts that us sports fans and sports card fans would enjoy? Let me know in the comments, or even feel free to link your own post.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Final

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay is just barely behind San Francisco in the NFC now. The big win by New Orleans over Atlanta ate away at the SF and GB leads.

I've got just one regular season post left, as all the games will be on Sunday in Week 17.  Just like last year, the all-divisonal week 17 format worked out for the NFL, as they get a winner-take-all primetime game in Dallas vs. New York for the NFC East title.  Like I said before, I hope either Oakland or Denver can win next week, so that all of the playoff teams have 9+ wins.

Finally, let's go Colts! There's no way the Rams beat San Francisco this week (officially I have it at 2.79%), so all I need is a Colts win (35.09% chance) and we get our second #1 pick in 3 years.  Not something to be proud of, but maybe it's something we can use to turn things around, either with a high profile guy, or a trade down for multiple high picks.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	12-3	+	+	99.510	60.209	35.668	22.222
GB	14-1	+	+	+	70.805	35.470	20.885
NO	12-3	+	+	72.877	32.150	17.138	9.679
NE	12-3	+	+	+	59.423	30.860	13.601
PIT	11-4	28.973	+	87.926	44.710	23.351	10.143
BAL	11-4	71.027	+	94.956	49.680	25.326	10.824
HOU	10-5	+	+	69.975	34.422	17.098	7.244
DET	10-5	-	+	62.491	20.793	7.331	3.132
DAL	8-7	62.266	62.266	26.051	6.881	1.946	0.679
CIN	9-6	-	50.641	16.995	5.452	1.849	0.506
ATL	9-6	-	+	27.613	7.113	2.049	0.683
NYJ	8-7	-	17.680	5.429	1.601	0.497	0.124
TEN	8-7	-	14.216	4.183	1.181	0.351	0.083
NYG	8-7	37.734	37.734	11.458	2.048	0.398	0.098
OAK	8-7	12.816	30.279	5.855	1.095	0.222	0.035
DEN	8-7	87.184	87.184	14.680	2.436	0.446	0.061

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Sunday

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay eliminated Chicago last night and gained some ground on San Francisco, but they're still not my Superbowl favorites.  Tonight's game is somewhat meaningless, except for seeding purposes, as you can see New Orleans and Atlanta are already in the playoffs. Atlanta can still win the NFC South and get a home playoff game, so they at least have something to play for.  

For Dallas and New York's winner take all next week, I show a 62% chance of a Cowboys win.  I'm glad to see no 7-9 teams will make the playoffs this year, and in fact the only 8-8 will Denver if they and Oakland both lose next week, as all of the other 8-7 teams need a win (and help) to make it.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	12-3	+	+	99.647	65.590	38.733	24.130
GB	14-1	+	+	+	68.894	35.482	20.893
NE	12-3	+	+	+	59.418	30.855	13.809
NO	11-3	91.018	+	62.895	24.803	11.992	6.182
PIT	11-4	28.975	+	87.914	44.707	23.348	10.296
BAL	11-4	71.025	+	94.953	49.687	25.331	11.007
HOU	10-5	+	+	69.967	34.409	17.094	7.359
DET	10-5	-	+	57.840	19.198	7.064	3.015
ATL	9-5	8.982	+	41.952	12.656	4.280	1.669
DAL	8-7	62.259	62.259	26.182	6.833	2.031	0.709
CIN	9-6	-	50.643	16.998	5.457	1.852	0.517
NYJ	8-7	-	17.680	5.431	1.602	0.498	0.127
TEN	8-7	-	14.229	4.188	1.184	0.352	0.086
NYG	8-7	37.741	37.741	11.484	2.027	0.418	0.103
OAK	8-7	12.821	30.268	5.854	1.096	0.223	0.036
DEN	8-7	87.179	87.179	14.696	2.440	0.447	0.063

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Saturday

San Francisco over New England

New England really took advantage of Baltimore and Pittsburgh's slip-ups last week, and now they've got a first round bye. Have I mentioned my distaste for New England? San Francisco has continued to get stronger as well, and despite not yet clinching a bye, has a better than 1 in 4 chance at winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	12-3	+	+	99.649	65.568	40.258	25.078
GB	13-1	+	+	+	66.409	32.330	18.127
NO	11-3	91.019	+	63.034	24.965	12.625	6.507
NE	12-3	+	+	+	59.412	30.848	14.149
PIT	11-4	28.975	+	87.913	44.707	23.348	10.558
BAL	11-4	71.025	+	94.950	49.682	25.333	11.281
HOU	10-5	+	+	69.968	34.413	17.099	7.550
DET	10-5	-	+	57.994	20.317	7.588	3.240
ATL	9-5	8.981	98.485	41.211	13.261	4.527	1.766
DAL	8-7	62.254	62.254	26.179	7.206	2.186	0.764
CIN	9-6	-	50.641	16.998	5.458	1.852	0.535
CHI	7-7	-	1.515	0.460	0.123	0.034	0.011
NYJ	8-7	-	17.674	5.428	1.603	0.498	0.131
TEN	8-7	-	14.229	4.188	1.183	0.352	0.089
NYG	8-7	37.746	37.746	11.473	2.151	0.452	0.111
OAK	8-7	12.821	30.277	5.858	1.098	0.223	0.037
DEN	8-7	87.179	87.179	14.698	2.443	0.447	0.065

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

Some might say it's a little silly to rerun the numbers after a week of only 4 more games.  But that wouldn't be the first time I've been called silly or worse.  At least the top 25 were involved in the games this week.  You can always view last week to see all the changes, but here are the top 25 moves:

Boise State from #6 to #2.
Southern Miss from #16 to #7
TCU from #17 to #10

And, due to games in which they weren't involved, Alabama falls from #3 to #5, falling below Virginia Tech who stays at #4.

So one could argue that Boise State should now be in the championship game, of course that is only by virtue of their bowl game win, something that's not possible in the current setup.  However, if LSU loses, there's a good chance my computer rankings will put Boise State at #1.  That oughta get me some hits from the Pacific Northwest at least.

1	LSU	13-0
2	Boise State	12-1
3	Oklahoma State	11-1
4	Virginia Tech	11-2
5	Alabama	11-1
6	Houston	12-1
7	Southern Miss	12-2
8	Stanford	11-1
9	Wisconsin	11-2
10	TCU	11-2
11	Oregon	11-2
12	Kansas State	10-2
13	Michigan	10-2
14	Clemson	10-3
15	South Carolina	10-2
16	USC	10-2
17	Georgia	10-3
18	Arkansas	10-2
19	Michigan State	10-3
20	Oklahoma	9-3
21	Baylor	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Northern Illinois	10-3
24	Penn State	9-3
25	West Virginia	9-3
26	Arkansas State	10-2
27	Ohio	10-4
28	Cincinnati	9-3
29	Notre Dame	8-4
30	Toledo	8-4
31	Brigham Young	9-3
32	Temple	9-4
33	Rutgers	8-4
34	Tulsa	8-4
35	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
36	Virginia	8-4
37	Georgia Tech	8-4
38	North Carolina	7-5
39	Wyoming	8-5
40	Florida State	8-4
41	Louisiana Tech	8-5
42	Texas	7-5
43	Auburn	7-5
44	Louisville	7-5
45	San Diego State	8-5
46	Missouri	7-5
47	North Carolina State	7-5
48	Iowa	7-5
49	Washington	7-5
50	Marshall	7-6
51	Utah	7-5
52	California	7-5
53	Iowa State	6-6
54	Florida International	8-5
55	Southern Methodist	7-5
56	Texas A&M	6-6
57	Air Force	7-5
58	Pittsburgh	6-6
59	Western Michigan	7-5
60	Utah State	7-6
61	Western Kentucky	7-5
62	Miami (FL)	6-6
63	Florida	6-6
64	Nevada	7-6
65	Illinois	6-6
66	Ohio State	6-6
67	Mississippi State	6-6
68	Vanderbilt	6-6
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	UCLA	6-7
71	Eastern Michigan	6-6
72	Arizona State	6-7
73	Ball State	6-6
74	Purdue	6-6
75	Tennessee	5-7
76	Northwestern	6-6
77	South Florida	5-7
78	Texas Tech	5-7
79	Kentucky	5-7
80	Syracuse	5-7
81	Navy	5-7
82	Kent State	5-7
83	Bowling Green	5-7
84	Connecticut	5-7
85	East Carolina	5-7
86	Hawaii	6-7
87	UTEP	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	San Jose State	5-7
90	UCF	5-7
91	Arizona	4-8
92	Boston College	4-8
93	Rice	4-8
94	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
95	Washington State	4-8
96	Fresno State	4-9
97	Minnesota	3-9
98	Miami (OH)	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	New Mexico State	4-9
101	Duke	3-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Kansas	2-10
104	Colorado	3-10
105	Buffalo	3-9
106	Maryland	2-10
107	Army	3-9
108	Ole Miss	2-10
109	Troy	3-9
110	Colorado State	3-9
111	UAB	3-9
112	UNLV	2-10
113	Idaho	2-10
114	Indiana	1-11
115	Middle Tennessee	2-10
116	New Mexico	1-11
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Tulane	2-11
119	Florida Atlantic	1-11
120	Akron	1-11

Contest Winnings from Card Hobbyist

A while back I won a contest at Card Hobbyist. As contest etiquette demands, I must post my winnings. Etiquette would probably also have me do it less than 2 months after the contest, but I don't have a time machine, this will have to do.

When this baby hits 88mph...

Right...anyway, onto the cards.

2011 Topps Lineage 3-D #T3D25 Albert Pujols

I must admit I was a little more excited when I first got this than I am now.  Several years from now I'm sure I'll look on his years here fondly like every other Cardinal-for-awhile.

1996 Stadium Club Extreme Players Gold #423 Norm Charlton

I swear this guy follows me around.  I've got one previous post with him, and another one already in the pipeline.

1992 Topps Gold #394 Denny Martinez

This was a bonus thrown in toward my eventual goal of the 1992 and 1993 Topps Gold sets. I love getting these.

Thanks to Card Hobbyist for the contest.  And go check out his blog.  It's cool and stuff.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Thursday

San Francisco over New England

I figured Thursday night would barely be worth mentioning, but then Indianapolis went and pulled another upset.  Because the performance of a team in my system is barely made worse by a close loss than a close win, a large part of Houston's lost standings must be due to the hit in the standings they took.  A win last night would have kept them in the hunt for a first round bye, but that will be a tough path now.

Also, the Colts appear to also be bad at being bad, and that #1 pick is teetering on slipping away to the Rams.  That'd give me lots to think about this offseason.

I've removed the teams that can't make the playoffs from my table below, because there wasn't much information in it for them, except for records and relative strengths.  Although it is a little interesting to see that while KC is still alive, they are the 3rd worst team in the league.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	+	+	96.701	61.893	37.314	23.550
GB	13-1	+	+	+	67.940	34.049	19.888
NO	11-3	92.707	+	68.768	28.831	14.744	7.955
NE	11-3	+	+	99.846	60.903	33.143	15.238
HOU	10-5	+	+	67.602	35.390	18.786	8.479
BAL	10-4	66.049	+	91.780	50.468	25.884	11.313
PIT	10-4	33.951	+	81.605	37.027	17.047	6.664
ATL	9-5	7.293	96.309	42.826	13.824	4.900	2.028
DET	9-5	-	88.141	41.335	12.980	4.364	1.753
DAL	8-6	83.788	83.861	40.271	12.212	4.018	1.585
PHI	6-8	6.351	6.351	2.778	0.745	0.218	0.077
NYJ	8-6	-	51.761	18.406	6.112	2.270	0.667
SD	7-7	4.607	18.894	6.767	2.195	0.781	0.223
CIN	8-6	-	18.248	6.288	2.002	0.732	0.208
CHI	7-7	-	6.605	2.090	0.557	0.161	0.055
SEA	7-7	-	4.339	1.124	0.283	0.084	0.027
TEN	7-7	-	5.701	2.120	0.599	0.186	0.047
ARI	7-7	-	4.276	0.965	0.179	0.037	0.009
NYG	7-7	9.861	10.118	3.142	0.557	0.110	0.027
DEN	8-6	84.914	86.532	21.701	4.581	1.019	0.182
OAK	7-7	6.939	15.324	3.465	0.681	0.149	0.025
KC	6-8	3.540	3.540	0.419	0.043	0.005	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

Go Enter JABO's Contest

Kyle at Juuust a bit outside is holding a contest.  Just go let him know which of the 3 cards (David Wright, Ryan Braun, Nolan Ryan) you'd like and be entered to win that card.  I'm going for the Nolan Ryan, personally, because I'm an old guy trapped in a not-as-old body.

Updated Trade and Want Lists, part II

In my last post, I detailed how I process my Zistle.com lists to generate have, want, and duplicate lists you can view all on one page.  That last post also yielded me half a trade from the very generous Dimwit.  I say half a trade because I still owe him his side.

I'm now up to 2 3000-count boxes that have been fully cataloged.  There are 4598 cards in these two boxes, so my packing rate has gotten a bit better.  Also I don't think they're in there as tight as when I only had one box done.  See that long strip of red cards?  Can you guess which set that is?

If you said 1990 Donruss, you're right.  I bought a few boxes back in the late 90s because they were cheap, and I never did complete the set.  But, the rest of them are on my want list.

Want List - You know what to do
Trade List - Or more properly, Duplicates List
Have List - If you see something on here you want, I might be willing to trade it, but I offer no guarantees.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over New England

3 more teams clinched playoff spots this week; New England with a win, and Baltimore and Pittsburgh despite losses.  It looks like Tebow will probably lead the Broncos into the playoffs, but the 6-8 Chiefs aren't out of contention yet.  A win this week along with Denver and San Diego losses would allow them the opportunity to beat Denver for the AFC West in week 17, in a game that would likely get put on Sunday Night Football January 1 since it's win-and-in-lose-and-out, like the Rams-Seahawks last year.  Wow, to remember the Rams were a game away from hosting a playoff game last year seems a little surreal.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	+	+	96.701	61.895	37.320	23.515
GB	13-1	+	+	+	67.939	34.047	19.864
NO	11-3	92.709	+	68.760	28.826	14.739	7.939
NE	11-3	+	+	91.513	55.382	29.782	13.698
HOU	10-4	+	+	79.486	44.560	23.552	10.662
BAL	10-4	66.063	+	90.688	47.766	24.729	10.812
PIT	10-4	33.937	+	83.057	37.272	17.122	6.693
ATL	9-5	7.291	96.306	42.756	13.811	4.897	2.022
DET	9-5	-	88.150	41.403	12.997	4.370	1.751
DAL	8-6	83.791	83.863	40.278	12.210	4.016	1.580
PHI	6-8	6.353	6.353	2.779	0.745	0.218	0.077
NYJ	8-6	-	51.785	17.205	5.678	2.136	0.629
SD	7-7	4.604	18.893	6.297	2.030	0.732	0.209
CIN	8-6	-	18.233	5.892	1.877	0.690	0.196
CHI	7-7	-	6.607	2.092	0.557	0.161	0.055
MIA	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-7	-	4.335	1.123	0.283	0.084	0.027
TEN	7-7	-	5.688	1.641	0.462	0.149	0.037
CAR	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-7	-	4.274	0.966	0.179	0.037	0.009
NYG	7-7	9.855	10.112	3.142	0.558	0.110	0.027
BUF	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-6	84.914	86.534	20.598	4.305	0.965	0.173
WAS	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-7	6.942	15.328	3.205	0.626	0.138	0.023
MIN	2-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	6-8	3.540	3.540	0.419	0.043	0.005	0.000
IND	1-13	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-12	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Green Bay over New England

After Thursday, I had Green Bay and Baltimore in the championship, and both teams lost yesterday. Green Bay retained their Super Bowl slot, but Baltimore has slipped behind New England and is only slightly ahead of Pittsburgh.  Tonight's game has two teams near the top, so it could adjust either side of the projection for tomorrow.  On a side note, I have a years-old dislike of the Patriots, ever since they beat the Rams in Superbowl XXXVI and there should have been a few seconds left on the clock.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	13-1	+	+	+	67.946	36.778	21.272
SF	10-3	+	+	89.280	51.907	28.611	16.404
NO	11-3	92.711	+	76.417	37.074	19.025	10.152
NE	11-3	+	+	93.932	55.113	29.425	14.255
HOU	10-4	+	+	76.284	41.069	21.442	10.232
BAL	10-4	43.420	+	86.660	44.114	22.479	10.370
PIT	10-3	56.580	+	89.772	45.026	22.069	9.881
ATL	9-5	7.289	96.176	42.607	14.289	5.489	2.237
DET	9-5	-	87.796	41.118	13.412	4.876	1.927
DAL	8-6	83.795	83.864	40.288	12.915	4.515	1.753
PHI	6-8	6.351	6.351	2.776	0.789	0.246	0.086
NYJ	8-6	-	51.798	17.206	5.728	2.068	0.649
SD	7-7	4.604	18.893	6.185	2.006	0.701	0.214
CIN	8-6	-	18.227	5.872	1.886	0.662	0.201
CHI	7-7	-	6.567	2.058	0.552	0.181	0.061
MIA	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	7-7	-	5.062	1.398	0.351	0.113	0.036
TEN	7-7	-	5.680	1.636	0.464	0.143	0.038
CAR	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-7	-	4.074	0.917	0.172	0.041	0.010
NYG	7-7	9.854	10.110	3.141	0.594	0.126	0.030
BUF	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-6	84.926	86.544	18.996	3.951	0.877	0.169
WAS	5-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-7	6.933	15.321	3.077	0.603	0.129	0.023
MIN	2-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	6-8	3.536	3.536	0.381	0.039	0.004	0.000
IND	1-13	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-12	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Once again, no changes in the top 25, because there were even fewer games this week than last week.  A lot of teams shuffled around within contiguous groups of 3 due to subtle strength of schedule changes, but in general only teams that moved much were the ones who won or lost since last Saturday. But, for the sake of posterity (and not being irritated with myself in the future when I go back to check), here's my full 120 team ranking.

1	LSU	13-0
2	Oklahoma State	11-1
3	Alabama	11-1
4	Virginia Tech	11-2
5	Houston	12-1
6	Boise State	11-1
7	Stanford	11-1
8	Wisconsin	11-2
9	Oregon	11-2
10	Kansas State	10-2
11	Michigan	10-2
12	Clemson	10-3
13	South Carolina	10-2
14	USC	10-2
15	Georgia	10-3
16	Southern Miss	11-2
17	TCU	10-2
18	Arkansas	10-2
19	Michigan State	10-3
20	Oklahoma	9-3
21	Baylor	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Northern Illinois	10-3
24	Penn State	9-3
25	West Virginia	9-3
26	Arkansas State	10-2
27	Ohio	10-4
28	Cincinnati	9-3
29	Notre Dame	8-4
30	Toledo	8-4
31	Brigham Young	9-3
32	Temple	9-4
33	Rutgers	8-4
34	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
35	Tulsa	8-4
36	Virginia	8-4
37	Georgia Tech	8-4
38	North Carolina	7-5
39	Wyoming	8-5
40	Florida State	8-4
41	Louisiana Tech	8-4
42	Texas	7-5
43	Auburn	7-5
44	Louisville	7-5
45	San Diego State	8-5
46	Missouri	7-5
47	North Carolina State	7-5
48	Iowa	7-5
49	Washington	7-5
50	Utah	7-5
51	California	7-5
52	Florida International	8-4
53	Iowa State	6-6
54	Southern Methodist	7-5
55	Texas A&M	6-6
56	Air Force	7-5
57	Pittsburgh	6-6
58	Western Michigan	7-5
59	Western Kentucky	7-5
60	Utah State	7-6
61	Miami (FL)	6-6
62	Florida	6-6
63	Nevada	7-5
64	Marshall	6-6
65	Illinois	6-6
66	Ohio State	6-6
67	Mississippi State	6-6
68	Vanderbilt	6-6
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	UCLA	6-7
71	Arizona State	6-6
72	Eastern Michigan	6-6
73	Ball State	6-6
74	Purdue	6-6
75	Tennessee	5-7
76	Northwestern	6-6
77	South Florida	5-7
78	Texas Tech	5-7
79	Kentucky	5-7
80	Syracuse	5-7
81	Navy	5-7
82	Kent State	5-7
83	Bowling Green	5-7
84	Connecticut	5-7
85	Hawaii	6-7
86	East Carolina	5-7
87	North Texas	5-7
88	UTEP	5-7
89	San Jose State	5-7
90	UCF	5-7
91	Arizona	4-8
92	Boston College	4-8
93	Rice	4-8
94	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
95	Washington State	4-8
96	Fresno State	4-9
97	Minnesota	3-9
98	Miami (OH)	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	New Mexico State	4-9
101	Duke	3-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Kansas	2-10
104	Colorado	3-10
105	Buffalo	3-9
106	Maryland	2-10
107	Army	3-9
108	Ole Miss	2-10
109	Troy	3-9
110	Colorado State	3-9
111	UAB	3-9
112	UNLV	2-10
113	Idaho	2-10
114	Indiana	1-11
115	Middle Tennessee	2-10
116	New Mexico	1-11
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Tulane	2-11
119	Florida Atlantic	1-11
120	Akron	1-11

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Green Bay over Baltimore

I was debating whether or not to even make a post today since not much changed, but Atlanta did get a big boost in overall playoff chances, from 78% up over 91%, so I figured it's worth it.  Jacksonville obviously didn't have anything to play for last night.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	+	+	91.579	56.492	31.589	17.726
GB	13-0	+	+	+	68.346	37.211	20.771
HOU	10-3	+	+	84.717	48.280	26.305	13.467
BAL	10-3	75.491	99.998	92.169	54.663	29.555	15.107
NO	10-3	91.969	+	71.589	32.081	15.580	7.562
NE	10-3	99.535	99.961	83.839	42.039	20.440	9.483
PIT	10-3	24.509	99.995	78.205	36.852	17.594	8.028
ATL	9-5	8.031	91.053	45.088	15.417	6.038	2.391
NYJ	8-5	0.465	71.231	28.002	10.387	4.110	1.517
DET	8-5	-	77.999	38.485	12.766	4.774	1.827
CHI	7-6	-	23.526	10.308	3.305	1.228	0.457
DAL	7-6	61.823	63.049	28.373	8.502	2.828	0.983
TEN	7-6	-	14.061	4.442	1.338	0.440	0.132
CIN	7-6	-	5.886	1.907	0.590	0.185	0.055
MIA	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	5-8	2.287	2.317	0.900	0.225	0.063	0.019
SD	6-7	0.698	2.174	0.657	0.191	0.057	0.016
SEA	6-7	-	2.819	0.725	0.158	0.044	0.012
NYG	7-6	35.891	36.287	12.228	2.572	0.612	0.153
BUF	5-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-5	89.070	90.112	22.599	5.007	1.182	0.262
ARI	6-7	-	2.951	0.725	0.137	0.032	0.007
CAR	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-6	10.011	16.361	3.440	0.650	0.133	0.025
WAS	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-8	0.221	0.221	0.023	0.002	0.000	0.000
IND	0-13	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

The Pujols Contract, part II

Last week I posted about the Albert Pujols contract when it looked like it was down to the Marlins and Cardinals.  I was definitely a little taken aback by the sudden announcement of the Angels contract.

The post centered around a claim that Pujols would be paying way more in state taxes in St. Louis.  I got a comment, which is still rare on my blog, asking about the difference from the Angels, so I figured I might as well run the numbers.  Here they are.

City	State	Rate	Angels	Income	Tax	Cardinals	Income	Tax
HOU	TX	0.00%				9	12.22	0
MIA	FL	0.00%				4	5.43	0
SEA	WAS	0.00%	10	16.08	0
TB	FL	0.00%	3	4.82	0
TEX	TX	0.00%	10	16.08	0
PHI	PA	3.07%				3	4.07	0.13
PIT	PA	3.07%				6	8.15	0.25
DET	MI	4.35%	7	11.25	0.49	3	4.07	0.18
ARI	AZ	4.54%				3	4.07	0.18
COL	CO	4.63%	3	4.82	0.22	3	4.07	0.19
CHC	IL	5%				9	12.22	0.61
CHW	IL	5%	3	4.82	0.24
BOS	MA	5.30%	3	4.82	0.26
BAL	MD	5.50%	2	3.22	0.18
CIN	OH	5.93%				9	12.22	0.72
CLE	OH	5.93%	6	9.65	0.57
ATL	GA	6%				3	4.07	0.24
KC	MO	6%	3	4.82	0.29	3	4.07	0.24
STL	MO	6%				81	110.00	6.60
MIL	WI	7.75%				6	8.15	0.63
MIN	MN	7.85%	6	9.65	0.76
DC	DC	8.50%				4	5.43	0.46
NYM	NY	8.97%				4	5.43	0.49
NYY	NY	8.97%	6	9.65	0.87
LAA	CA	9.30%	81	130.22	12.11
LAD	CA	9.30%	3	4.82	0.45	7	9.51	0.88
OAK	CA	9.30%	9	14.47	1.35
SD	CA	9.30%	3	4.82	0.45	3	4.07	0.38
SF	CA	9.30%				2	2.72	0.25
TOR	Canada, eh		4	0	0
			158	254	18.22	162	220	12.45
					Profit of LAA over STL			28.22

To deal with the fact that the Angels do travel to Toronto, I just spread the income over just the 158 games in the US.  This essentially treats Toronto as the weighted average of the other games.  I'm sure it doesn't throw off the end number by much, but I have no idea what those games do to the tax bill.

This contract was also $34 Million more than the reported $220 Million Cardinals offer.  If the Cardinals had decided to match it, Albert would have been $3.85 Million better off in St Louis, due to the high tax rates in California (although somewhat alleviated by the games in Texas).  In fact, for $249.92 Million, the Cardinals could have had Albert for the same after-state-tax price.  That high tax average may come down a bit once Houston moves to the AL West, however, giving him another in-division 0% tax opponent.

In the end, Albert didn't have to look at nickels and dimes, or even hundreds of thousands, to make his decision.  He got tens of millions more, and I hope he's happy in Southern California.  I also hope the Cardinals are ultimately happy with their decision. Landing Pujols would have certainly cost a lot of money, but would have paid some returns in ticket sales and wins.  Hopefully we'll be able to parlay some of that money into 2 or 3 good players to help the team win even more.

The Diamond King's End of Year MegaContest

Go check out the contest at The Diamond King. He's giving away 7 prizes, but you have to choose which one you want to try for.  All the details are in the contest link.  And of course, promote it like I am for an extra entry.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Final

Green Bay over Baltimore

Green Bay does in fact have a first round bye, as the worst case scenario for them would be going 13-3 along with SF and NO, and they get at least 2nd in the tiebreaker scenarios. Baltimore is on the cusp of a playoff berth, with only about a 1 in 50,000 chance of missing the playoffs.  Pittsburgh and New England are not far behind, either.  And, on the hot story of the moment, Tim Tebow and the Broncos are now over 90% likely to make the playoffs.

On the other end, if I had my way, the #1 2012 draft pick would go to the Rams, because they're the worst team statistically again.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	+	+	91.764	56.687	31.817	17.855
GB	13-0	+	+	+	70.014	38.117	21.280
HOU	10-3	+	+	84.728	48.289	26.311	13.461
BAL	10-3	75.486	99.998	92.166	54.650	29.545	15.092
NO	10-3	94.856	+	73.705	33.025	16.113	7.819
NE	10-3	99.534	99.962	83.805	42.018	20.430	9.474
PIT	10-3	24.514	99.995	78.198	36.852	17.594	8.025
NYJ	8-5	0.466	71.758	28.216	10.470	4.142	1.529
DET	8-5	-	78.524	40.255	13.348	4.997	1.912
CHI	7-6	-	31.085	13.527	4.330	1.624	0.604
DAL	7-6	61.814	64.597	30.563	9.155	3.054	1.062
ATL	8-5	5.144	78.981	34.007	10.015	3.441	1.189
TEN	7-6	-	13.247	4.184	1.261	0.415	0.125
CIN	7-6	-	5.943	1.923	0.595	0.187	0.056
MIA	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	5-8	2.287	2.319	0.956	0.239	0.067	0.020
SD	6-7	0.700	2.210	0.669	0.194	0.058	0.016
SEA	6-7	-	3.533	0.946	0.207	0.058	0.015
NYG	7-6	35.900	36.868	13.203	2.776	0.663	0.166
BUF	5-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-5	89.067	90.146	22.614	5.011	1.183	0.263
ARI	6-7	-	4.092	1.074	0.204	0.048	0.011
CAR	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-6	10.013	16.521	3.474	0.657	0.134	0.026
WAS	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-8	0.221	0.221	0.024	0.002	0.000	0.000
IND	0-13	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Green Bay over Baltimore

So, NFL.com doesn't list Green Bay as having clinched a first round bye yet, but that + in the Wildcard round indicates that all 1.5 billion simulations had them either with a bye or winning their opening round game.  I suppose I need another column of stats, because they're probably something like 99.99% likely to get a bye, and in the few remaining scenarios they win every time.

Eliminated Sunday were Miami, Buffalo (after such a promising start), Carolina, Washington, and Tampa Bay.  The Rams crawled out of the #32 slot, but tonight's likely massacre will surely put them right back down there.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	+	+	91.932	56.814	31.886	17.893
GB	13-0	+	+	+	69.990	38.096	21.268
HOU	10-3	+	+	84.735	48.298	26.315	13.463
BAL	10-3	75.794	99.998	92.194	54.670	29.557	15.097
NO	10-3	94.856	+	73.459	32.884	16.043	7.785
NE	10-3	99.534	99.962	83.809	42.029	20.433	9.475
PIT	10-3	24.206	99.994	78.123	36.803	17.571	8.014
NYJ	8-5	0.466	71.902	28.287	10.494	4.152	1.532
DET	8-5	-	78.664	40.320	13.365	5.004	1.915
CHI	7-6	-	32.340	14.100	4.513	1.691	0.629
DAL	7-6	61.813	64.595	30.558	9.150	3.053	1.062
ATL	8-5	5.144	78.628	33.799	9.952	3.420	1.182
TEN	7-6	-	13.184	4.164	1.254	0.412	0.124
CIN	7-6	-	5.820	1.883	0.583	0.183	0.055
MIA	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	5-8	2.287	2.327	0.958	0.239	0.067	0.020
SD	6-7	0.700	2.220	0.672	0.195	0.058	0.016
NYG	7-6	35.900	36.829	13.190	2.772	0.662	0.166
BUF	5-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-5	89.068	90.147	22.630	5.014	1.184	0.263
SEA	5-7	-	2.104	0.499	0.096	0.024	0.006
ARI	6-7	-	4.513	1.186	0.225	0.053	0.012
CAR	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-6	10.011	16.552	3.481	0.658	0.135	0.026
WAS	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-8	0.221	0.221	0.024	0.002	0.000	0.000
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-13	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay? (week 14, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

There were no changes in the traditionally tracked top 25 with only the Army-Navy game being played in the FBS this week, but it did shift a few teams around due to their changed strengths of schdedule, hurting Army opponents and helping Navy opponents.  The changes at a glance:

Air Force jumps over Pittsburgh to 56.
Western Kentucky jumps over Miami to 60.
Tennessee jumps over Northwestern to 75.
Navy jumps from 89 to 81, over Connecticut, Kent State, Bowling Green, Hawaii, East Carolina, UTEP, and San Jose State.
Louisiana Monroe jumps 2 slots to 94, over Washington State and Fresno.
Army drops below Ole Miss, to 108.

I'm going to run the rankings again each week that has bowl games, but it will very much be a rich-get-richer situation, as the top teams will be playing each other and confirming their places at the top.  To me the most interesting scenarios are the ones in which LSU loses, as I suspect someone other than Alabama may take my #1 slot.

1	LSU	13-0
2	Oklahoma State	11-1
3	Alabama	11-1
4	Virginia Tech	11-2
5	Houston	12-1
6	Boise State	11-1
7	Stanford	11-1
8	Wisconsin	11-2
9	Oregon	11-2
10	Kansas State	10-2
11	Michigan	10-2
12	Clemson	10-3
13	South Carolina	10-2
14	USC	10-2
15	Georgia	10-3
16	Southern Miss	11-2
17	TCU	10-2
18	Arkansas	10-2
19	Michigan State	10-3
20	Oklahoma	9-3
21	Baylor	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Northern Illinois	10-3
24	Penn State	9-3
25	West Virginia	9-3
26	Arkansas State	10-2
27	Cincinnati	9-3
28	Notre Dame	8-4
29	Toledo	8-4
30	Brigham Young	9-3
31	Ohio	9-4
32	Rutgers	8-4
33	Tulsa	8-4
34	Virginia	8-4
35	Wyoming	8-4
36	Georgia Tech	8-4
37	North Carolina	7-5
38	Louisiana Tech	8-4
39	Florida State	8-4
40	Texas	7-5
41	Auburn	7-5
42	San Diego State	8-4
43	Louisville	7-5
44	Missouri	7-5
45	North Carolina State	7-5
46	Iowa	7-5
47	Washington	7-5
48	Temple	8-4
49	Utah	7-5
50	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
51	California	7-5
52	Iowa State	6-6
53	Florida International	8-4
54	Southern Methodist	7-5
55	Texas A&M	6-6
56	Air Force	7-5
57	Pittsburgh	6-6
58	Utah State	7-5
59	Western Michigan	7-5
60	Western Kentucky	7-5
61	Miami (FL)	6-6
62	Florida	6-6
63	Nevada	7-5
64	Illinois	6-6
65	Ohio State	6-6
66	Marshall	6-6
67	Mississippi State	6-6
68	Vanderbilt	6-6
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	UCLA	6-7
71	Arizona State	6-6
72	Eastern Michigan	6-6
73	Ball State	6-6
74	Purdue	6-6
75	Tennessee	5-7
76	Northwestern	6-6
77	South Florida	5-7
78	Texas Tech	5-7
79	Kentucky	5-7
80	Syracuse	5-7
81	Navy	5-7
82	Connecticut	5-7
83	Kent State	5-7
84	Bowling Green	5-7
85	Hawaii	6-7
86	East Carolina	5-7
87	UTEP	5-7
88	San Jose State	5-7
89	North Texas	5-7
90	UCF	5-7
91	Arizona	4-8
92	Boston College	4-8
93	Rice	4-8
94	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
95	Washington State	4-8
96	Fresno State	4-9
97	Minnesota	3-9
98	Miami (OH)	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	New Mexico State	4-9
101	Duke	3-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Kansas	2-10
104	Colorado	3-10
105	Maryland	2-10
106	Buffalo	3-9
107	Ole Miss	2-10
108	Army	3-9
109	Troy	3-9
110	Colorado State	3-9
111	UAB	3-9
112	UNLV	2-10
113	Idaho	2-10
114	Indiana	1-11
115	Middle Tennessee	2-10
116	New Mexico	1-11
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Tulane	2-11
119	Florida Atlantic	1-11
120	Akron	1-11

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Pittsburgh's strength ranking moved up two slots above New England and New Orleans, but still just below division rival Baltimore.  Despite now being up a half game on Baltimore, Pittsburgh still only holds a 30.5% chance of winning the AFC North.  Cleveland is officially eliminated from the AFC playoffs.  Since only the AFC North played yesterday, I guess I should cover the Bengals too.  They've outdone themselves this year, winning more than the strength formula says they should, but being in a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore is going to make it very hard for them to make the playoffs

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-2	+	+	98.146	62.445	37.124	21.339
HOU	9-3	99.268	99.605	83.835	47.985	26.786	14.036
GB	12-0	+	+	99.975	64.971	32.674	17.313
BAL	9-3	69.474	99.743	90.652	51.367	26.447	13.141
PIT	10-3	30.523	99.981	80.557	40.455	20.060	9.570
NE	9-3	98.880	99.644	84.978	42.741	21.230	10.054
NO	9-3	95.464	99.824	64.559	27.352	13.853	6.752
CHI	7-5	-	70.851	33.505	11.769	4.470	1.746
DET	7-5	-	57.999	28.655	10.010	3.785	1.478
DAL	7-5	84.874	87.210	42.684	13.977	5.024	1.871
MIA	4-8	-	0.005	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	7-5	1.109	46.146	16.411	5.626	2.019	0.687
ATL	7-5	4.536	63.984	25.665	7.960	2.696	0.936
TEN	7-5	0.732	29.796	10.114	3.372	1.176	0.385
CIN	7-5	0.003	17.929	5.950	1.933	0.651	0.207
SD	5-7	2.038	2.519	0.756	0.219	0.066	0.019
PHI	4-8	0.502	0.532	0.203	0.050	0.013	0.004
BUF	5-7	0.011	0.106	0.030	0.007	0.002	0.000
NYG	6-6	14.615	16.024	5.638	1.257	0.311	0.080
CAR	4-8	-	0.012	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	7-5	33.761	38.536	9.938	2.397	0.605	0.145
SEA	5-7	-	2.324	0.646	0.141	0.034	0.008
DEN	7-5	62.051	63.833	16.486	3.860	0.953	0.223
ARI	5-7	-	1.128	0.297	0.063	0.015	0.004
WAS	4-8	0.009	0.081	0.018	0.003	0.001	0.000
MIN	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-8	-	0.031	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-7	2.150	2.156	0.291	0.038	0.005	0.001
IND	0-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)