I figured Thursday night would barely be worth mentioning, but then Indianapolis went and pulled another upset. Because the performance of a team in my system is barely made worse by a close loss than a close win, a large part of Houston's lost standings must be due to the hit in the standings they took. A win last night would have kept them in the hunt for a first round bye, but that will be a tough path now.
Also, the Colts appear to also be bad at being bad, and that #1 pick is teetering on slipping away to the Rams. That'd give me lots to think about this offseason.
I've removed the teams that can't make the playoffs from my table below, because there wasn't much information in it for them, except for records and relative strengths. Although it is a little interesting to see that while KC is still alive, they are the 3rd worst team in the league.
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)