Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Green Bay over Baltimore

So, NFL.com doesn't list Green Bay as having clinched a first round bye yet, but that + in the Wildcard round indicates that all 1.5 billion simulations had them either with a bye or winning their opening round game.  I suppose I need another column of stats, because they're probably something like 99.99% likely to get a bye, and in the few remaining scenarios they win every time.

Eliminated Sunday were Miami, Buffalo (after such a promising start), Carolina, Washington, and Tampa Bay.  The Rams crawled out of the #32 slot, but tonight's likely massacre will surely put them right back down there.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	+	+	91.932	56.814	31.886	17.893
GB	13-0	+	+	+	69.990	38.096	21.268
HOU	10-3	+	+	84.735	48.298	26.315	13.463
BAL	10-3	75.794	99.998	92.194	54.670	29.557	15.097
NO	10-3	94.856	+	73.459	32.884	16.043	7.785
NE	10-3	99.534	99.962	83.809	42.029	20.433	9.475
PIT	10-3	24.206	99.994	78.123	36.803	17.571	8.014
NYJ	8-5	0.466	71.902	28.287	10.494	4.152	1.532
DET	8-5	-	78.664	40.320	13.365	5.004	1.915
CHI	7-6	-	32.340	14.100	4.513	1.691	0.629
DAL	7-6	61.813	64.595	30.558	9.150	3.053	1.062
ATL	8-5	5.144	78.628	33.799	9.952	3.420	1.182
TEN	7-6	-	13.184	4.164	1.254	0.412	0.124
CIN	7-6	-	5.820	1.883	0.583	0.183	0.055
MIA	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	5-8	2.287	2.327	0.958	0.239	0.067	0.020
SD	6-7	0.700	2.220	0.672	0.195	0.058	0.016
NYG	7-6	35.900	36.829	13.190	2.772	0.662	0.166
BUF	5-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-5	89.068	90.147	22.630	5.014	1.184	0.263
SEA	5-7	-	2.104	0.499	0.096	0.024	0.006
ARI	6-7	-	4.513	1.186	0.225	0.053	0.012
CAR	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-6	10.011	16.552	3.481	0.658	0.135	0.026
WAS	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	2-11	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-8	0.221	0.221	0.024	0.002	0.000	0.000
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-13	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay? (week 14, Sunday)