2011-12-27

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 16, Final

San Francisco over New England

Green Bay is just barely behind San Francisco in the NFC now. The big win by New Orleans over Atlanta ate away at the SF and GB leads.

I've got just one regular season post left, as all the games will be on Sunday in Week 17.  Just like last year, the all-divisonal week 17 format worked out for the NFL, as they get a winner-take-all primetime game in Dallas vs. New York for the NFC East title.  Like I said before, I hope either Oakland or Denver can win next week, so that all of the playoff teams have 9+ wins.

Finally, let's go Colts! There's no way the Rams beat San Francisco this week (officially I have it at 2.79%), so all I need is a Colts win (35.09% chance) and we get our second #1 pick in 3 years.  Not something to be proud of, but maybe it's something we can use to turn things around, either with a high profile guy, or a trade down for multiple high picks.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF12-3++99.51060.20935.66822.222
GB14-1+++70.80535.47020.885
NO12-3++72.87732.15017.1389.679
NE12-3+++59.42330.86013.601
PIT11-428.973+87.92644.71023.35110.143
BAL11-471.027+94.95649.68025.32610.824
HOU10-5++69.97534.42217.0987.244
DET10-5-+62.49120.7937.3313.132
DAL8-762.26662.26626.0516.8811.9460.679
CIN9-6-50.64116.9955.4521.8490.506
ATL9-6-+27.6137.1132.0490.683
NYJ8-7-17.6805.4291.6010.4970.124
TEN8-7-14.2164.1831.1810.3510.083
NYG8-737.73437.73411.4582.0480.3980.098
OAK8-712.81630.2795.8551.0950.2220.035
DEN8-787.18487.18414.6802.4360.4460.061
First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: Green Bay (week 14, Sunday)

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