Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

I sort the teams by strength in this table, and Kansas City and New England nearly exactly swapped places. KC jumped up to the #9 spot, where New England was. New England fell one spot below where KC was, to #23. Chicago jumped up by 1 spot to #22 to let that all happen.

I noticed today I've been remiss in noting the first teams to reach certain milestones of probability, such as a 10% shot of winning it all, so those are below now, and backdated to the proper game day.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	0.584	34.680	70.940	51.162	27.512	14.822	8.234
CIN	3-0	0.581	54.815	80.588	64.030	34.538	18.530	10.247
SD	3-1	0.577	53.639	72.754	56.397	30.323	15.968	8.765
IND	2-2	0.562	39.540	51.792	33.840	17.366	8.854	4.720
DET	3-1	0.555	52.220	68.549	52.239	27.991	14.847	7.442
DAL	3-1	0.551	39.905	60.610	44.353	23.524	12.388	6.160
ARI	3-0	0.549	56.103	74.640	58.219	30.839	16.170	8.001
HOU	3-1	0.547	56.442	69.298	48.866	24.410	12.030	6.232
KC	2-2	0.546	20.770	40.838	26.379	13.087	6.433	3.329
SEA	2-1	0.531	27.352	50.902	34.811	17.581	8.862	4.226
PHI	3-1	0.529	36.741	55.512	38.891	19.630	9.861	4.689
ATL	2-2	0.527	53.092	57.555	35.805	17.809	8.851	4.187
NYG	2-2	0.523	20.250	34.427	21.718	10.784	5.349	2.508
DEN	2-1	0.516	25.051	46.846	30.288	14.080	6.476	3.155
MIN	2-2	0.515	20.829	38.157	24.784	12.073	5.868	2.703
BUF	2-2	0.510	39.416	44.023	24.115	10.883	4.913	2.364
MIA	2-2	0.498	28.283	34.963	19.160	8.454	3.722	1.747
SF	2-2	0.498	11.681	29.041	17.231	8.070	3.790	1.685
PIT	2-2	0.496	6.368	23.280	12.912	5.687	2.531	1.183
CLE	1-2	0.494	4.137	15.787	8.601	3.774	1.676	0.780
GB	2-2	0.492	14.524	27.558	16.480	7.636	3.539	1.552
CHI	2-2	0.484	12.427	25.774	15.426	7.039	3.210	1.384
NE	2-2	0.478	20.459	25.533	13.323	5.610	2.361	1.061
WAS	1-3	0.475	3.104	8.857	4.762	2.125	0.953	0.401
NO	1-3	0.473	14.463	18.284	9.398	4.139	1.828	0.767
NYJ	1-3	0.464	11.843	15.555	7.688	3.127	1.272	0.555
CAR	2-2	0.451	26.618	32.307	17.164	7.200	3.024	1.207
STL	1-2	0.448	4.863	10.517	5.476	2.300	0.969	0.383
TB	1-3	0.420	5.827	7.310	3.243	1.259	0.491	0.181
TEN	1-3	0.410	3.253	5.693	2.419	0.868	0.313	0.120
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.541	0.883	0.349	0.124	0.044	0.016
JAC	0-4	0.388	0.765	1.227	0.468	0.157	0.054	0.019

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Cincinnati over Arizona

So...what's going on here? Cincinnati is the 2nd strongest team, and Arizona is 7th overall, 3rd in the NFC. Yet, I've got them favored to win their respective conferences. It all comes down to the weakness of their future schedule, as well as the tiebreakers they've pushed their way towards winning, such as division record. To be clear, in an Arizona vs Detroit or Dallas game, I would have Arizona losing. But, by averaging 100 million simulations, Arizona comes out atop the NFC 16.338% of the time, more than any other team, and likewise for Cincinnati in the AFC with 18.177% of the simulations. The long and short of it is that the projection remains the same for another day.

In Fantasy Football news, my Larry Donnell pickup led the way for both of my teams to basically clinch the week by the end of Sunday's games. I've also got Stevan Ridley playing tonight in both leagues, but his points will just be tiebreaker fodder.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	0.584	35.167	71.820	51.281	27.546	14.825	8.235
CIN	3-0	0.581	53.907	80.331	62.970	33.910	18.177	10.053
SD	3-1	0.577	61.038	76.251	58.700	31.453	16.536	9.078
IND	2-2	0.561	38.705	51.278	33.140	16.967	8.634	4.603
DET	3-1	0.555	51.839	67.769	51.409	27.534	14.603	7.312
DAL	3-1	0.551	39.896	60.557	44.309	23.502	12.375	6.149
ARI	3-0	0.549	56.115	75.157	58.835	31.163	16.338	8.070
HOU	3-1	0.547	57.182	70.199	49.116	24.469	12.038	6.240
NE	2-1	0.539	39.700	50.273	32.629	15.837	7.636	3.901
SEA	2-1	0.531	27.337	51.541	35.303	17.826	8.982	4.280
PHI	3-1	0.529	36.744	55.461	38.848	19.608	9.856	4.681
ATL	2-2	0.527	53.090	57.544	35.804	17.811	8.852	4.182
NYG	2-2	0.523	20.247	34.400	21.707	10.780	5.346	2.505
DEN	2-1	0.516	28.207	48.689	30.871	14.296	6.569	3.201
MIN	2-2	0.515	21.439	38.335	24.911	12.140	5.903	2.719
BUF	2-2	0.510	30.262	37.721	20.937	9.472	4.279	2.058
MIA	2-2	0.498	21.553	30.854	17.141	7.581	3.345	1.572
SF	2-2	0.498	11.682	29.756	17.674	8.276	3.890	1.726
PIT	2-2	0.496	6.724	24.801	13.539	5.947	2.641	1.236
CLE	1-2	0.494	4.201	16.459	8.786	3.851	1.706	0.795
GB	2-2	0.492	14.391	26.795	15.980	7.405	3.431	1.502
KC	1-2	0.491	9.956	19.972	10.981	4.812	2.099	0.972
CHI	2-2	0.484	12.330	25.151	15.025	6.858	3.127	1.347
WAS	1-3	0.475	3.113	8.854	4.759	2.126	0.954	0.401
NO	1-3	0.473	14.469	18.280	9.398	4.142	1.830	0.767
NYJ	1-3	0.464	8.485	13.072	6.535	2.663	1.087	0.474
CAR	2-2	0.451	26.616	32.294	17.159	7.202	3.024	1.204
STL	1-2	0.448	4.865	10.808	5.641	2.368	0.997	0.394
TB	1-3	0.420	5.825	7.298	3.238	1.259	0.492	0.181
TEN	1-3	0.410	3.326	5.830	2.442	0.875	0.315	0.121
OAK	0-4	0.402	0.799	1.160	0.446	0.157	0.055	0.021
JAC	0-4	0.388	0.787	1.291	0.486	0.164	0.056	0.020

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]

2014 World Series Projection, September 29

Washington over Los Angeles

It's that time of year again, when my projection posts go into overdrive. This year, there's no tiebreaker game, so I had to figure out how to re-modify my software to not account for one. I'm a terrible software engineer sometimes.

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
OAK	0.6089	59.03	31.43	19.14	11.44
WAS	0.5955	100.00	61.23	37.14	20.03
LAA	0.5923	100.00	53.65	30.71	17.22
BAL	0.5783	100.00	58.64	28.18	14.94
LAD	0.5687	100.00	60.59	29.77	14.28
SF	0.5363	50.09	19.47	9.30	3.81
PIT	0.5354	49.91	19.31	9.19	3.75
DET	0.5324	100.00	41.36	15.81	6.80
KC	0.5193	40.97	14.92	6.16	2.48
STL	0.5119	100.00	39.41	14.60	5.25

The team strengths are much lower than last year. There was a significant drop in runs per team this year, from 675 to 659, which is part of how those strengths are calculated. The league average is still .500, but the teams are more closely packed together.

I'll mention the same caveat I did last year. Oakland is statistically the strongest team, but if they used their best starter in the wildcard game, they'd obviously be at a lesser advantage or a disadvantage in their first game against LA. These projections work better the longer a series goes, as they reflect the team's average performance in all games, something that can vary wildly from your ace down to your #5 - or even #3 - starter.

I'm actually a bit conflicted in the AL wildcard game. I like both teams, and would probably root for both against LA, although in the somewhat unlikely event the Cardinals make the World Series, it would be fun to see Pujols and Freese back at the scene of their 2011 win. I suppose I'll be a homer instead of a front-runner, and root for my home-state Royals tomorrow.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

Again, nearly every team moved this week. #3 Oregon and #113 Hawaii pulled off the bye-week stand, holding #3 and #113 without playing. The other teams to hold their positions, but while playing, were #41 Virginia, #118 Vanderbilt, #120 Appalachian State, #122 SMU, and #125 Troy.

This week is Nebraska's turn at the top. Other than week 1, when every 1-0 team is tied for #1, There has been a different #1 each week. Nebraska should solidify that spot with a win over #30 Michigan State, although an Oregon win over #17 Arizona, or the winner of #2 Texas A&M win and #9 Mississippi State could help one of them take the top spot.

Missouri's win over South Carolina vaulted them into my top 10, even though South Carolina is only #33 now. That probably speaks to everyone's tendencies to beat up on bad teams early in the year, making #33 a huge jump in quality of opponents.

Massachusetts has reclaimed it's bottom-of-the-pack position, losing yet again, this time to #61 Bowling Green.

1	Nebraska	5-0
2	Texas A&M	5-0
3	Oregon	4-0
4	Florida State	4-0
5	UCLA	4-0
6	North Carolina State	4-1
7	LSU	4-1
8	Auburn	4-0
9	Mississippi State	4-0
10	Missouri	4-1
11	Alabama	4-0
12	Georgia Tech	4-0
13	Washington	4-1
14	BYU	4-0
15	Maryland	4-1
16	Notre Dame	4-0
17	Arizona	4-0
18	Oklahoma	4-0
19	Louisville	4-1
20	Ole Miss	4-0
21	Baylor	4-0
22	Rutgers	4-1
23	Iowa	4-1
24	Minnesota	4-1
25	Penn State	4-1
26	Marshall	4-0
27	Duke	4-1
28	Wyoming	3-2
29	Virginia Tech	3-2
30	Michigan State	3-1
31	Illinois	3-2
32	USC	3-1
33	South Carolina	3-2
34	Wisconsin	3-1
35	Oklahoma State	3-1
36	Pittsburgh	3-2
37	California	3-1
38	Kansas State	3-1
39	Miami (FL)	3-2
40	East Carolina	3-1
41	Virginia	3-2
42	TCU	3-0
43	Stanford	3-1
44	Arkansas	3-2
45	Colorado State	3-1
46	Northern Illinois	3-1
47	Toledo	3-2
48	Utah	3-1
49	Georgia	3-1
50	Boise State	3-2
51	Ohio State	3-1
52	Nevada	3-1
53	Boston College	3-2
54	Air Force	3-1
55	Oregon State	3-1
56	Middle Tennessee	3-2
57	Kentucky	3-1
58	Arizona State	3-1
59	Georgia Southern	3-2
60	Louisiana-Monroe	3-1
61	Bowling Green	3-2
62	Indiana	2-2
63	Temple	3-1
64	Syracuse	2-2
65	West Virginia	2-2
66	Buffalo	3-2
67	Clemson	2-2
68	Northwestern	2-2
69	Ohio	3-2
70	Tennessee	2-2
71	Florida	2-1
72	Akron	2-2
73	Texas	2-2
74	Western Kentucky	2-2
75	Purdue	2-3
76	Kansas	2-2
77	Arkansas State	2-2
78	South Florida	2-3
79	North Carolina	2-2
80	Washington State	2-3
81	Memphis	2-2
82	Texas Tech	2-2
83	Cincinnati	2-1
84	Navy	2-3
85	Florida Atlantic	2-3
86	Southern Miss	2-3
87	Utah State	2-2
88	Florida International	2-3
89	San Diego State	2-2
90	Central Michigan	2-3
91	Louisiana Tech	2-3
92	UTEP	2-2
93	Fresno State	2-3
94	UAB	2-2
95	Texas State	2-2
96	Houston	2-2
97	Michigan	2-3
98	Wake Forest	2-3
99	Western Michigan	2-2
100	South Alabama	2-2
101	Colorado	2-3
102	UCF	1-2
103	Iowa State	1-3
104	North Texas	2-2
105	New Mexico State	2-3
106	Rice	1-3
107	San Jose State	1-3
108	Ball State	1-3
109	UTSA	1-3
110	Tulane	1-4
111	Georgia State	1-3
112	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-3
113	Hawaii	1-3
114	Army	1-3
115	Eastern Michigan	1-3
116	Tulsa	1-3
117	Connecticut	1-4
118	Vanderbilt	1-4
119	New Mexico	1-3
120	Appalachian State	1-3
121	UNLV	1-4
122	SMU	0-4
123	Kent State	0-4
124	Miami (OH)	0-5
125	Troy	0-5
126	Idaho	0-4
127	Massachusetts	0-5

2014 History

Week 1

Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Cincinnati over Arizona

Washington and New York are behind undefeated Philadelphia in the NFC East, so their game didn't really affect much last night. Philadelphia still has a 53% chance of winning the division, down slightly from nearly 56%, because Washington was actually the stronger team before the game. We'll see if the bye week for the two favorites helps San Diego or Philadelphia boost themselves up to the top of their respective conferences.

On a fun personal note, I had Dennis Pitta as my only TE in both of my fantasy football leagues. As you may know, he's was hurt in week 3 and is now out for the year. I chose to pick up Larry Donnell in both leagues, and boy, did it pay off. He scored 3 touchdowns last night, giving me quite the head start going into the weekend games. I'd like to claim I saw that coming, but it was pure dumb luck. I just grabbed the best free agent TE in one league, and the second best in the other, since I like keeping my teams similar when it doesn't mean picking a player too far down the list.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	3-0	0.581	60.323	81.694	67.027	37.767	21.141	11.704
ARI	3-0	0.548	58.777	76.114	58.522	30.829	16.161	8.297
ATL	2-1	0.546	49.321	62.151	43.361	22.617	11.758	6.004
SD	2-1	0.544	49.143	64.097	46.660	24.118	12.265	6.330
DET	2-1	0.540	42.239	57.064	39.236	20.167	10.338	5.221
NE	2-1	0.539	37.093	51.669	35.579	18.123	9.130	4.669
BAL	2-1	0.535	20.476	52.393	34.045	16.995	8.581	4.350
PHI	3-0	0.534	53.075	69.523	51.461	26.261	13.311	6.647
HOU	2-1	0.533	53.100	61.740	41.932	21.057	10.474	5.287
SEA	2-1	0.531	28.319	51.364	34.315	17.276	8.708	4.319
IND	1-2	0.527	30.829	38.902	23.759	11.722	5.767	2.875
CHI	2-1	0.526	36.942	52.741	35.584	17.743	8.823	4.333
BUF	2-1	0.524	40.854	53.158	35.419	17.445	8.500	4.217
NYG	2-2	0.523	20.815	35.845	22.014	10.895	5.388	2.629
DEN	2-1	0.516	35.070	52.205	34.830	16.873	8.086	3.944
DAL	2-1	0.515	22.759	40.762	25.955	12.651	6.158	2.961
CAR	2-1	0.511	33.414	48.324	31.073	15.027	7.253	3.458
NO	1-2	0.511	15.580	27.808	16.495	7.955	3.841	1.831
PIT	2-1	0.502	14.197	38.341	23.311	10.839	5.097	2.416
CLE	1-2	0.494	5.004	17.242	9.703	4.448	2.063	0.962
KC	1-2	0.491	12.420	21.979	12.678	5.802	2.642	1.223
SF	1-2	0.487	7.513	18.782	10.332	4.724	2.171	0.982
MIN	1-2	0.484	13.501	22.688	12.890	5.864	2.673	1.203
NYJ	1-2	0.479	13.099	22.516	12.999	5.785	2.561	1.157
WAS	1-3	0.475	3.351	9.720	5.037	2.241	1.001	0.440
MIA	1-2	0.454	8.954	16.003	8.433	3.539	1.484	0.633
GB	1-2	0.452	7.318	12.670	6.558	2.772	1.174	0.491
STL	1-2	0.448	5.392	11.286	5.746	2.414	1.019	0.423
TEN	1-2	0.443	12.799	18.081	9.058	3.698	1.506	0.626
OAK	0-3	0.436	3.367	4.986	2.324	0.934	0.376	0.154
TB	0-3	0.425	1.686	3.162	1.422	0.563	0.225	0.088
JAC	0-3	0.415	3.272	4.995	2.243	0.855	0.327	0.127

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

eBay Wins #142

Tonight's eBay lot is from 1990 Topps, which cost me 3 whole cents.

1990 Topps
#301 Don Aase
#312 Dan Quisenberry
#541 Pat Perry

When David Aardsma first reached the majors, I read that he became lexicographically first in the MLB record book, just ahead of Hank Aaron. I don't have that list handy, but I'd imagine Don Aase must be pretty close to 4th, after Aardsma and the Aaron brothers.

The other two guys fall somewhere in the middle of that list. Also, they both played for the Cardinals. I only recently posted my first Dan Quisenberry and Pat Perry cards, and now I've already got another card post featuring both of them. Both of them were on different teams on those 1988 cards, and they both were on different teams for 1990 than pictured here, Quisenberry with the Giants, and Perry with the Dodgers. Finally, 1990 was also the last season for each of them. It's not quite Kennedy-Lincoln, but that's an awful lot of coincidences, coinciding with the random cards I purchased on eBay.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3205
Total Spent	$50.58
Per Card	1.578 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 3, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

It's still early in the season, but the inter-conference games still have a measurable effect on everyone's playoff odds. In fact, perhaps the effect is noticeable on everyone precisely because it is so early, and no one has completely run away with a division. There are actually no divisions that include both a 3-0 and 0-3 team, and some have only 2-1 and 1-2 teams, so the races are even closer than they could be. That means a chunk of each team's playoff odds include their chances at a wildcard, which are changed when one conference wins and another one loses in isolation, like when Chicago beat the Jets. The playoff odds for Chicago climbed by over 11 percentage points, which were all taken from the other 15 NFC teams. The Jets lost over 10 percentage points in their playoff hunt, and those were all meted out to the other AFC teams. Like every inter-conference game not involving the Rams, I was rooting for the AFC team last night, but they just couldn't pull it off, raising the bar just a bit more for the NFC Wildcard slots.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	3-0	0.581	60.311	81.679	67.014	37.758	21.139	11.698
ARI	3-0	0.548	57.906	74.908	57.168	30.117	15.789	8.106
ATL	2-1	0.546	50.089	63.192	44.334	23.131	12.019	6.138
SD	2-1	0.544	49.125	64.052	46.599	24.086	12.256	6.320
DET	2-1	0.540	42.340	56.722	38.873	19.983	10.247	5.176
NE	2-1	0.539	37.086	51.624	35.533	18.097	9.117	4.656
BAL	2-1	0.535	20.483	52.372	34.035	16.986	8.572	4.344
PHI	3-0	0.534	55.854	71.436	53.246	27.163	13.759	6.874
HOU	2-1	0.533	53.003	61.756	42.024	21.113	10.497	5.301
WAS	1-2	0.532	13.628	30.264	18.616	9.367	4.715	2.344
SEA	2-1	0.531	28.840	51.544	34.492	17.369	8.749	4.340
IND	1-2	0.527	30.784	38.891	23.764	11.724	5.767	2.875
CHI	2-1	0.526	37.127	52.748	35.571	17.734	8.820	4.332
BUF	2-1	0.524	40.851	53.130	35.399	17.434	8.492	4.208
DEN	2-1	0.516	35.069	52.161	34.791	16.859	8.080	3.939
DAL	2-1	0.515	23.156	41.208	26.259	12.803	6.233	2.996
CAR	2-1	0.511	33.019	48.174	30.989	14.983	7.239	3.456
NO	1-2	0.511	15.320	27.681	16.434	7.931	3.830	1.827
PIT	2-1	0.502	14.197	38.338	23.318	10.844	5.103	2.417
CLE	1-2	0.494	5.009	17.232	9.705	4.451	2.066	0.964
KC	1-2	0.491	12.436	21.965	12.665	5.798	2.640	1.224
SF	1-2	0.487	7.722	18.917	10.419	4.770	2.191	0.994
MIN	1-2	0.484	13.155	22.012	12.477	5.683	2.590	1.165
NYJ	1-2	0.479	13.111	22.502	12.985	5.777	2.559	1.157
NYG	1-2	0.463	7.362	14.098	7.398	3.210	1.396	0.598
MIA	1-2	0.454	8.953	15.990	8.419	3.535	1.483	0.632
GB	1-2	0.452	7.378	12.691	6.567	2.779	1.178	0.493
STL	1-2	0.448	5.532	11.392	5.798	2.439	1.029	0.427
TEN	1-2	0.443	12.782	18.088	9.070	3.704	1.510	0.628
OAK	0-3	0.436	3.371	4.985	2.322	0.932	0.375	0.153
TB	0-3	0.425	1.572	3.012	1.359	0.538	0.214	0.084
JAC	0-3	0.415	3.431	5.235	2.357	0.899	0.344	0.134

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Cincinnati over Arizona

Houston and Carolina both lost this week, vaulting Cincinnati and Arizona into the favored positions. I will note for any of you who haven't been following along, that Cincinnati is not favored to win the AFC simply because they are the only 3-0 team. It would be feasible that a strong 2-1 team with a weaker schedule could be favored to win more of the remaining games and catch or surpass Cincinnati. But, Cincinnati has a very large ratio of Points For to Points Against, which also makes them the strongest team in the league, and the current Superbowl favorite

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	3-0	0.581	60.376	81.282	66.637	37.525	21.005	11.645
ARI	3-0	0.548	57.900	75.323	57.768	30.533	16.054	8.247
ATL	2-1	0.546	50.083	63.761	45.121	23.612	12.296	6.282
SD	2-1	0.544	49.099	63.503	45.966	23.748	12.087	6.247
DET	2-1	0.540	47.697	59.457	40.918	21.075	10.818	5.465
NE	2-1	0.539	34.351	49.715	34.188	17.409	8.771	4.490
BAL	2-1	0.535	20.513	51.697	33.602	16.783	8.476	4.303
PHI	3-0	0.534	55.760	71.901	53.943	27.612	14.019	7.007
HOU	2-1	0.533	53.062	61.528	41.698	20.932	10.413	5.271
WAS	1-2	0.532	13.599	30.776	19.024	9.597	4.847	2.408
SEA	2-1	0.531	28.844	52.068	34.999	17.667	8.929	4.430
IND	1-2	0.527	30.823	38.643	23.533	11.613	5.715	2.857
BUF	2-1	0.524	37.481	50.703	33.768	16.636	8.104	4.025
DEN	2-1	0.516	35.050	51.479	34.189	16.558	7.938	3.878
DAL	2-1	0.515	23.297	42.079	26.958	13.182	6.432	3.091
CAR	2-1	0.511	33.025	48.815	31.686	15.371	7.442	3.550
NO	1-2	0.511	15.324	28.248	16.889	8.170	3.955	1.886
CHI	1-1	0.510	28.219	41.218	26.206	12.637	6.092	2.898
PIT	2-1	0.502	14.089	37.440	22.784	10.604	4.988	2.370
NYJ	1-1	0.496	20.068	32.801	20.382	9.425	4.323	2.028
CLE	1-2	0.494	5.021	16.817	9.476	4.348	2.019	0.942
KC	1-2	0.491	12.432	21.539	12.374	5.666	2.580	1.198
SF	1-2	0.487	7.722	19.431	10.772	4.942	2.279	1.032
MIN	1-2	0.484	15.301	23.680	13.433	6.125	2.795	1.257
NYG	1-2	0.463	7.344	14.456	7.636	3.323	1.448	0.620
MIA	1-2	0.454	8.099	15.053	7.953	3.337	1.399	0.598
GB	1-2	0.452	8.783	14.029	7.262	3.076	1.304	0.546
STL	1-2	0.448	5.534	11.661	5.975	2.518	1.066	0.442
TEN	1-2	0.443	12.680	17.724	8.859	3.618	1.476	0.616
OAK	0-3	0.436	3.419	4.918	2.276	0.915	0.367	0.151
TB	0-3	0.425	1.568	3.099	1.409	0.561	0.224	0.088
JAC	0-3	0.415	3.435	5.157	2.316	0.884	0.339	0.132

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Nearly every team moved around this week, except Alabama at #2, Louisiana-Monroe at #66, and Idaho and Troy at #124 and #125. Curiously, Louisiana-Monroe accomplished this in a bye week.

Missouri lost to Indiana, which not only dropped them 4 spots to #23, and just behind their St. Louis-area fanbase rival, Illinois, but it may have prevented the final nail in the coffin of the Big 10 - excuse me, B1G - as far as finishing with a team in the 4-team playoff. Michigan's loss to Utah certainly didn't help that cause, dropping them from #62 to #82.

At the bottom of the rankings, Massachusetts got a boost by losing to a much better team, #12 Penn State, and Kent State didn't play, swapping their positions this week.

1	North Carolina State	4-0
2	Alabama	4-0
3	Oregon	4-0
4	Oklahoma	4-0
5	Mississippi State	4-0
6	Washington	4-0
7	BYU	4-0
8	Georgia Tech	4-0
9	Arizona	4-0
10	Texas A&M	4-0
11	Nebraska	4-0
12	Penn State	4-0
13	Duke	4-0
14	Marshall	4-0
15	Auburn	3-0
16	LSU	3-1
17	Maryland	3-1
18	UCLA	3-0
19	South Carolina	3-1
20	Wyoming	3-1
21	East Carolina	3-1
22	Illinois	3-1
23	Missouri	3-1
24	Pittsburgh	3-1
25	Arkansas	3-1
26	Ole Miss	3-0
27	Boise State	3-1
28	Notre Dame	3-0
29	Northern Illinois	3-1
30	Baylor	3-0
31	Florida State	3-0
32	Utah	3-0
33	Rutgers	3-1
34	Louisville	3-1
35	Minnesota	3-1
36	Arizona State	3-0
37	Boston College	3-1
38	Oregon State	3-0
39	Iowa	3-1
40	TCU	2-0
41	Virginia	2-2
42	Syracuse	2-1
43	Tennessee	2-1
44	Virginia Tech	2-2
45	West Virginia	2-2
46	Kansas	2-1
46	Oklahoma State	2-1
48	Kansas State	2-1
49	North Carolina	2-1
50	California	2-1
51	Indiana	2-1
52	Wisconsin	2-1
53	Purdue	2-2
54	Michigan State	2-1
55	Florida	2-1
56	Southern Miss	2-2
57	South Florida	2-2
58	Texas Tech	2-1
59	Arkansas State	2-2
60	USC	2-1
61	Colorado State	2-1
62	Cincinnati	2-0
63	UTEP	2-1
64	Miami (FL)	2-2
65	Louisiana Tech	2-2
66	Louisiana-Monroe	2-1
67	Central Michigan	2-2
68	Utah State	2-2
69	Toledo	2-2
70	Navy	2-2
71	Memphis	2-1
72	Stanford	2-1
73	Kentucky	2-1
74	Ohio State	2-1
75	Georgia	2-1
76	Wake Forest	2-2
77	UAB	2-1
78	Air Force	2-1
79	Georgia Southern	2-2
80	Nevada	2-1
81	Bowling Green	2-2
82	Michigan	2-2
83	Houston	2-2
84	Western Michigan	2-1
85	Middle Tennessee	2-2
86	Buffalo	2-2
87	Colorado	2-2
88	Temple	2-1
89	New Mexico State	2-2
90	Ohio	2-2
91	Iowa State	1-2
92	UCF	1-2
93	North Texas	2-2
94	Texas	1-2
95	San Jose State	1-2
96	UTSA	1-2
97	Clemson	1-2
98	Northwestern	1-2
99	Florida Atlantic	1-3
100	San Diego State	1-2
101	Akron	1-2
102	New Mexico	1-2
103	Western Kentucky	1-2
104	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-3
105	Army	1-2
106	Connecticut	1-3
107	Eastern Michigan	1-3
108	Texas State	1-2
109	Tulane	1-3
110	Tulsa	1-2
111	Washington State	1-3
112	Florida International	1-3
113	Hawaii	1-3
114	UNLV	1-3
115	Georgia State	1-3
116	Fresno State	1-3
117	South Alabama	1-2
118	Vanderbilt	1-3
119	Ball State	1-3
120	Appalachian State	1-2
121	Rice	0-3
122	SMU	0-3
123	Miami (OH)	0-4
124	Idaho	0-3
125	Troy	0-4
126	Massachusetts	0-4
127	Kent State	0-3

2014 History

Week 1

Week 2
Week 3

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Houston over Carolina

Atlanta nearly broke my projections with a ridiculous 56-0 win, but they let up and Tampa scored 2 TDs to make the game slightly closer to a realistic score. During the game, I was pondering adding in an attenuation parameter, which would make any blowout only worth a win by maybe 4 touchdowns, for strength calculation purposes. I suppose for now I'll let the 6 TD victory stand. Still, Atlanta may be vastly overrated at this point, as they are the second most likely team to make the Superbowl for the NFC. As it stands, they couldn't quite take over the lead from Carolina, so the projection holds steady at least until Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	0.553	62.333	73.269	55.586	29.858	15.937	8.425
CAR	2-0	0.550	51.390	69.401	52.014	27.669	14.695	7.724
ATL	2-1	0.546	40.569	60.973	43.036	22.620	11.898	6.199
CIN	2-0	0.544	51.888	68.023	50.712	26.688	13.953	7.250
WAS	1-1	0.542	30.635	47.641	32.658	17.021	8.836	4.572
BUF	2-0	0.542	49.412	65.909	48.700	25.522	13.260	6.862
PHI	2-0	0.532	43.411	59.339	42.327	21.616	10.983	5.572
BAL	1-1	0.531	21.974	41.978	27.202	13.816	7.022	3.559
ARI	2-0	0.528	44.088	60.566	43.450	22.013	11.073	5.577
DEN	2-0	0.526	54.255	66.759	47.499	23.945	11.992	6.007
NE	1-1	0.520	19.637	36.282	23.232	11.542	5.725	2.834
SEA	1-1	0.519	23.388	40.436	26.401	13.082	6.463	3.197
SD	1-1	0.517	31.284	44.985	29.041	14.309	7.034	3.462
MIN	1-1	0.512	27.012	39.369	25.310	12.323	5.985	2.915
DAL	1-1	0.511	21.159	34.835	21.914	10.694	5.204	2.533
CHI	1-1	0.510	27.273	39.770	25.547	12.390	5.996	2.910
DET	1-1	0.509	26.557	37.490	23.425	11.332	5.470	2.650
SF	1-1	0.506	21.760	36.202	22.748	10.944	5.250	2.526
TEN	1-1	0.500	22.028	37.058	22.796	10.834	5.160	2.453
CLE	1-1	0.498	14.801	28.773	17.453	8.277	3.930	1.860
NYJ	1-1	0.496	16.618	32.313	19.867	9.356	4.406	2.078
NO	0-2	0.492	6.907	15.875	9.021	4.227	1.985	0.929
MIA	1-1	0.488	14.333	30.087	17.795	8.231	3.808	1.766
IND	0-2	0.484	9.843	16.664	9.216	4.231	1.950	0.895
GB	1-1	0.478	19.159	27.004	15.689	7.092	3.206	1.455
PIT	1-1	0.468	11.336	23.760	13.421	5.936	2.633	1.168
OAK	0-2	0.457	8.024	12.021	6.159	2.658	1.151	0.498
KC	0-2	0.455	6.438	11.234	5.759	2.468	1.060	0.457
STL	1-1	0.451	10.764	19.721	10.816	4.604	1.957	0.836
NYG	0-2	0.449	4.795	8.481	4.305	1.834	0.782	0.332
JAC	0-2	0.443	5.796	10.886	5.561	2.328	0.979	0.411
TB	0-3	0.425	1.134	2.895	1.338	0.538	0.217	0.087

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

2010 Topps, Geoffrey the Giraffe Style

Does Toys R Us still use Geoffrey as a mascot? I don't go there often enough to notice, but I was there recently and noticed some clearanced baseball cards from the last few years. There were actually several products to choose from, but thanks to the wonders of smartphones, I was able to see that most of the prices could be beat online. I did opt to buy a $12.99 blaster of 2010 Topps, with Albert Pujols on the box.

2010 Topps
#111 Ty Wigginton
Gold Border #99 Garrett Jones #1997/2010
Black Border
#5 Texas Rangers
#56 Andy Pettite
#105 Madison Bumgarner
#135 Ryan Dempster
#152 Nyjer Morgan
#177 Adam Lind
#226 Juan Rivera

2010 is special to me because that's the year I got back into card collecting. I was killing time walking around in a Target, and browsed the baseball card displays for the first time in many years. A pack of 2010 Series 2 looked interesting for some reason, and my 10 year collecting hiatus was over.

2010 Topps
#54 John Lackey
#207 Colby Rasmus
Black Border #38 Houston Astros
Black Border #329 Colorado Rockies Franchise History
Commemorative Patch #MCP-37 Chipper Jones
Million Card Giveaway #TMC-6 Mickey Mantle
Million Card Giveaway #TMC-7 Roger Maris
Legendary Lineage #LL14 Warren Spahn/Tommy Hanson
Legendary Lineage #LL24 Bob Gibson/Tim Lincecum

I managed to get 3 total Cardinals base cards, including future Cardinals John Lackey and Ty Wigginton, and Colby Rasmus in uniform. I was expecting 2 full packs of black base cards, as promised on the box, but wound up with only 9. I was surprised to see regular inserts also in those packs. I sort of buried the "hit" of the box in the middle of this scan, but it's a nice looking 40th anniversary patch. Also in this bunch are two looooong-expired Million Card Giveaway cards, and a Bob Gibson Legendary Lineage.

2010 Topps
Cards Your Mom Threw Out #CMT-6 Frank Robinson
Cards Your Mom Threw Out #CMT-19 Steve Carlton
Cards Your Mom Threw Out #CMT-44 Mike Piazza
Cards Your Mom Threw Out Original Backs #MTO-25 Mike Schmidt
Cards Your Mom Threw Out Original Backs #MTO-39 Frank Thomas
When They Were Young #WTWY-YM Yadier Molina
Peak Performance #PP-5 Babe Ruth
Peak Performance #PP-41 David Wright
Peak Performance #PP-50 Ty Cobb

The 1993 Ozzie Smith from the Cards Your Mom Threw Out set was actually a big reason that first few packs in 2010 brought me back to collecting. I still have my original though, my mom knew better than to throw out my cards. I got another Cardinal here in Steve Carlton, though he's much better known as a member of the Phillies. I also got a card featuring Yadier Molina as a kid. Overall, this was a good blaster for Cardinals.

2010 Topps - Topps Town
#TTT2 David Wright
#TTT6 Ichiro
#TTT9 Roy Halladay
#TTT10 Tim Lincecum
#TTT12 Miguel Tejada
#TTT15 Miguel Cabrera
#TTT23 CC Sabathia
#TTT25 Manny Ramirez

I never did get into Topps Town, and I'm still not really sure exactly what it is/was.

2010 Topps
History of the Game #HOTG17 Dodgers and Giants move to California
History of the Game #HOTG18 Roger Maris
Tales of the Game #TOG-3 Babe Ruth
Tales of the Game #TOG-6 Ernie Banks
Topps Town Gold #FCTTT7 Josh Hamilton
Topps Town Gold #FCTTT19 Justin Upton
Turkey Red #TR28 Mickey Mantle
Turkey Red #TR42 Ian Kinsler

In retrospect, I'd say the inserts in 2010 are actually not that good, except for Turkey Red, which I really like, enough that I'll probably add it to my long list of sets and insert sets I'd like to complete. Don't get me wrong, Babe Ruth and Ernie Banks are obviously all time greats, but the Tales of the Game design just doesn't grab my attention. There's also Topps Town Gold, which is probably like Topps Town, but...more Toppsy? I don't really know. Maybe it unlocked more on the site, or maybe they're just golden. I also grabbed one more Cardinal, Roger Maris.

In all, I think this was a marginal purchase, but I'm still filling in gaps in my collection, so these cards from right before my collecting phase 2 began were nearly all new to me.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 2, Final

Houston over Carolina

Since I don't really root for any team but the Rams, when there's an AFC-NFC matchup, I always root for the AFC team, to weaken the wildcard pool in the NFC. So, last night the Philadelphia comeback over Indianapolis was not what I was hoping for. Every other AFC team's playoff chances went up slightly, and every other NFC team's went down.

With the narrow victory, Philadelphia didn't increase their chances enough to overtake Carolina as the NFC favorite, so today's projection remains the same as yesterday's.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	0.553	62.291	73.237	55.573	29.866	15.977	8.524
CAR	2-0	0.550	63.496	74.225	57.039	30.699	16.428	8.643
CIN	2-0	0.544	50.901	67.082	49.801	26.192	13.676	7.167
WAS	1-1	0.542	29.980	47.675	32.896	17.336	9.097	4.713
BUF	2-0	0.542	49.417	65.924	48.736	25.551	13.288	6.932
PHI	2-0	0.531	43.637	60.233	43.464	22.433	11.543	5.858
BAL	1-1	0.531	22.441	42.256	27.473	13.963	7.086	3.618
ARI	2-0	0.528	44.841	62.481	45.506	23.319	11.882	5.984
DEN	2-0	0.526	54.229	66.748	47.514	23.948	11.986	6.060
NE	1-1	0.520	19.613	36.275	23.240	11.536	5.721	2.856
SEA	1-1	0.519	23.057	41.390	27.304	13.685	6.839	3.381
SD	1-1	0.517	31.293	45.002	29.064	14.343	7.050	3.496
MIN	1-1	0.512	27.022	40.326	26.362	12.977	6.380	3.113
DAL	1-1	0.511	21.308	35.798	22.801	11.238	5.525	2.691
CHI	1-1	0.510	27.269	40.703	26.598	13.049	6.385	3.107
DET	1-1	0.509	26.535	38.460	24.389	11.929	5.826	2.821
SF	1-1	0.506	21.451	37.082	23.586	11.478	5.582	2.694
TEN	1-1	0.500	22.035	37.093	22.850	10.861	5.173	2.489
CLE	1-1	0.498	15.088	29.019	17.641	8.360	3.964	1.898
NYJ	1-1	0.496	16.636	32.356	19.909	9.376	4.420	2.103
NO	0-2	0.492	9.105	17.142	9.873	4.673	2.216	1.036
MIA	1-1	0.488	14.333	30.106	17.823	8.262	3.836	1.800
IND	0-2	0.484	9.865	16.694	9.243	4.253	1.961	0.911
ATL	1-1	0.481	19.908	32.917	19.785	9.120	4.222	1.937
TB	0-2	0.480	7.491	13.976	7.704	3.544	1.634	0.744
GB	1-1	0.478	19.174	27.710	16.433	7.525	3.433	1.564
PIT	1-1	0.468	11.570	24.006	13.606	6.023	2.669	1.191
OAK	0-2	0.458	8.032	12.049	6.179	2.664	1.151	0.506
KC	0-2	0.455	6.447	11.252	5.778	2.475	1.064	0.461
STL	1-1	0.451	10.651	20.635	11.487	4.943	2.125	0.908
NYG	0-2	0.449	5.076	9.246	4.773	2.052	0.884	0.377
JAC	0-2	0.443	5.808	10.900	5.571	2.329	0.979	0.415

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Houston over Carolina

With decent-sized wins, Houston and Carolina take over their conference leads.

The Rams pulled off a yawner of a victory due to a 10 second runoff, but I'll take it. They have climbed to 1-1, but unfortunately it was only a 2 point win, so their Superbowl chances actually dropped, to below 1%. Still, for now I can claim to have a better team than Jacksonville and New York, and to have better odds than Kansas City, Oakland, and Tampa

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	2-0	0.553	59.791	71.943	54.618	29.351	15.674	8.380
CAR	2-0	0.550	63.554	74.597	57.703	31.152	16.712	8.787
CIN	2-0	0.544	50.891	66.742	49.510	26.056	13.623	7.156
WAS	1-1	0.542	33.734	49.442	34.383	18.144	9.548	4.944
BUF	2-0	0.542	49.377	65.581	48.454	25.404	13.208	6.911
BAL	1-1	0.531	22.408	41.798	27.163	13.806	7.017	3.595
ARI	2-0	0.528	44.828	62.990	46.143	23.699	12.087	6.091
DEN	2-0	0.525	54.239	66.546	47.361	23.887	11.976	6.072
PHI	1-0	0.524	36.056	51.138	35.515	18.068	9.166	4.585
NE	1-1	0.520	19.591	35.839	22.973	11.414	5.663	2.838
SEA	1-1	0.519	23.050	41.978	27.808	13.962	6.996	3.463
SD	1-1	0.517	31.251	44.673	28.853	14.228	7.002	3.488
MIN	1-1	0.512	26.977	40.716	26.747	13.209	6.505	3.173
DAL	1-1	0.511	24.194	37.460	23.982	11.852	5.852	2.851
CHI	1-1	0.510	27.253	41.102	26.986	13.265	6.507	3.164
DET	1-1	0.509	26.514	38.824	24.776	12.145	5.939	2.879
SF	1-1	0.506	21.463	37.617	24.075	11.741	5.719	2.754
TEN	1-1	0.500	20.906	36.052	22.241	10.580	5.042	2.429
CLE	1-1	0.498	15.107	28.720	17.456	8.287	3.939	1.889
NYJ	1-1	0.496	16.660	32.046	19.739	9.308	4.385	2.093
NO	0-2	0.492	9.077	17.418	10.091	4.786	2.274	1.065
IND	0-1	0.489	13.918	23.055	13.353	6.206	2.889	1.358
MIA	1-1	0.488	14.372	29.807	17.659	8.176	3.790	1.780
ATL	1-1	0.481	19.903	33.313	20.131	9.306	4.312	1.971
TB	0-2	0.480	7.467	14.174	7.867	3.627	1.677	0.763
GB	1-1	0.478	19.256	28.169	16.828	7.720	3.540	1.610
PIT	1-1	0.468	11.594	23.724	13.443	5.959	2.645	1.189
OAK	0-2	0.458	8.049	11.924	6.118	2.644	1.146	0.504
KC	0-2	0.455	6.460	11.116	5.708	2.451	1.056	0.462
STL	1-1	0.451	10.658	21.043	11.790	5.093	2.202	0.942
NYG	0-2	0.449	6.016	10.018	5.172	2.232	0.965	0.411
JAC	0-2	0.443	5.385	10.435	5.352	2.244	0.944	0.401

[Week 1]

[Week 2, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

My rankings tend to shuffle around near the top, and this week was no exception. LSU dropped from #1 to #4, and UCLA dropped from #2 to #8, despite both winning. Cincinnati finally played a game, so all 127 teams are now in the rankings. Massachusetts stayed at the bottom, because almosts don't count in my rankings. They very nearly won against Vanderbilt, but lost to go 0-3 and stay at the bottom. Vanderbilt, previously at #123, jumped all the way up to #115

Missouri held steady at #19, having beat a team that is now only 0-2.

1	Oklahoma	3-0
2	Alabama	3-0
3	Washington	3-0
4	LSU	3-0
5	Oregon	3-0
6	Pittsburgh	3-0
7	Arizona	3-0
8	UCLA	3-0
9	Texas A&M	3-0
10	North Carolina State	3-0
10	Mississippi State	3-0
12	Ole Miss	3-0
13	Northern Illinois	3-0
14	Penn State	3-0
15	Georgia Tech	3-0
16	Notre Dame	3-0
17	BYU	3-0
18	Nebraska	3-0
19	Missouri	3-0
20	Baylor	3-0
21	Duke	3-0
22	Arizona State	3-0
23	Marshall	3-0
24	Virginia	2-1
25	Wyoming	2-1
26	South Carolina	2-1
27	Tennessee	2-1
28	Syracuse	2-0
29	Illinois	2-1
30	East Carolina	2-1
31	Boise State	2-1
32	Kansas State	2-0
33	Virginia Tech	2-1
34	Auburn	2-0
35	TCU	2-0
36	Oklahoma State	2-1
37	Louisville	2-1
38	North Carolina	2-0
39	Maryland	2-1
40	Texas Tech	2-1
41	Florida	2-0
42	West Virginia	2-1
43	Florida State	2-0
44	Stanford	2-1
45	Navy	2-1
46	USC	2-1
47	California	2-0
48	Arkansas	2-1
49	UTEP	2-1
50	Utah State	2-1
51	Minnesota	2-1
52	Rutgers	2-1
53	Louisiana Tech	2-1
54	Colorado State	2-1
55	Boston College	2-1
56	Ohio State	2-1
57	Central Michigan	2-1
58	Oregon State	2-0
59	Bowling Green	2-1
60	Miami (FL)	2-1
61	Utah	2-0
62	Michigan	2-1
63	Nevada	2-1
64	Kentucky	2-1
65	Middle Tennessee	2-1
66	Louisiana-Monroe	2-1
67	Air Force	2-1
68	New Mexico State	2-1
69	UAB	2-1
70	Iowa	2-1
71	Wisconsin	1-1
72	Southern Miss	1-2
73	South Florida	1-2
74	Indiana	1-1
75	San Diego State	1-1
76	Arkansas State	1-2
77	Western Kentucky	1-2
77	Florida Atlantic	1-2
79	Iowa State	1-2
80	Georgia	1-1
81	Cincinnati	1-0
82	Michigan State	1-1
83	Army	1-1
84	Akron	1-1
85	Tulane	1-2
86	Connecticut	1-2
87	Kansas	1-1
88	Tulsa	1-2
89	UNLV	1-2
90	Texas	1-2
91	Texas State	1-1
92	UTSA	1-2
93	Temple	1-1
94	San Jose State	1-1
95	Purdue	1-2
96	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-2
97	Florida International	1-2
98	Washington State	1-2
99	Clemson	1-1
100	Eastern Michigan	1-2
101	Buffalo	1-2
102	Memphis	1-1
103	South Alabama	1-1
104	Wake Forest	1-2
105	Appalachian State	1-1
106	Georgia Southern	1-2
107	Toledo	1-2
108	Hawaii	1-2
109	Georgia State	1-2
110	Colorado	1-2
111	Ohio	1-2
112	Western Michigan	1-1
113	North Texas	1-2
114	Houston	1-2
115	Vanderbilt	1-2
116	Ball State	1-2
117	Rice	0-2
118	UCF	0-2
119	Northwestern	0-2
120	New Mexico	0-2
121	Miami (OH)	0-3
122	Fresno State	0-3
123	SMU	0-2
124	Idaho	0-2
125	Troy	0-3
126	Kent State	0-3
127	Massachusetts	0-3

2014 History

Week 1

Week 2

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Minnesota over Tennessee

I'm not sure that Baltimore and Pittsburgh are really the best and worst teams, respectively, but that's one hitch in my system. They've played twice as many games as all other teams, so their projected winning percentage is exaggerated twice as far from .500 as all other teams, for right now. This effect will lessen each week, and will only possibly be noticeable when one of the top teams plays Thursday or Monday. 

Even with their slight strength edge, Baltimore's week 1 loss has them behind Tennessee (and Houston, Miami, Cincinnati, New York, and Denver) for the AFC favorite.

For two days, and probably not again for the rest of this season, I can gloat to my friend the Steelers fan that the Rams are the better team...at least by these numbers.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-1	0.531	29.646	44.994	30.507	15.971	8.349	4.343
MIN	1-0	0.531	38.307	55.791	40.127	21.015	10.989	5.720
HOU	1-0	0.529	37.592	53.594	38.327	19.983	10.410	5.392
TEN	1-0	0.528	36.928	54.536	39.121	20.363	10.592	5.476
DET	1-0	0.527	36.469	53.821	38.361	19.938	10.350	5.355
SEA	1-0	0.526	33.023	53.506	38.097	19.755	10.213	5.263
PHI	1-0	0.524	49.138	58.364	40.928	21.089	10.830	5.566
MIA	1-0	0.520	33.178	51.296	36.073	18.471	9.422	4.791
SF	1-0	0.520	31.590	51.501	36.183	18.491	9.431	4.801
CIN	1-0	0.515	40.250	53.538	37.361	18.931	9.575	4.830
CAR	1-0	0.515	37.544	51.309	35.367	17.917	9.041	4.563
NYJ	1-0	0.513	30.042	48.639	33.788	17.048	8.582	4.314
DEN	1-0	0.511	42.612	53.624	37.085	18.600	9.298	4.654
BUF	1-0	0.506	27.392	44.247	30.039	14.938	7.408	3.670
ATL	1-0	0.504	34.915	48.714	32.819	16.206	7.981	3.938
ARI	1-0	0.503	25.829	43.833	29.482	14.523	7.145	3.516
SD	0-1	0.497	21.685	30.797	19.210	9.343	4.538	2.209
NO	0-1	0.496	14.480	25.008	15.312	7.432	3.606	1.753
CLE	0-1	0.495	14.681	24.330	14.972	7.267	3.529	1.710
CHI	0-1	0.494	14.177	25.561	15.837	7.653	3.703	1.791
IND	0-1	0.489	13.977	23.760	14.463	6.923	3.319	1.586
OAK	0-1	0.487	18.924	26.183	15.635	7.435	3.533	1.681
TB	0-1	0.485	13.060	22.851	13.641	6.461	3.060	1.451
DAL	0-1	0.480	18.028	25.230	14.702	6.883	3.223	1.514
NE	0-1	0.480	9.387	19.832	11.828	5.556	2.610	1.225
JAC	0-1	0.476	11.504	21.402	12.816	5.971	2.784	1.294
GB	0-1	0.474	11.046	18.987	11.158	5.177	2.405	1.115
NYG	0-1	0.473	16.625	23.177	13.303	6.129	2.822	1.306
KC	0-1	0.472	16.779	23.201	13.432	6.187	2.846	1.314
WAS	0-1	0.471	16.209	23.819	13.872	6.373	2.931	1.352
STL	0-1	0.469	9.559	18.526	10.812	4.957	2.270	1.041
PIT	1-1	0.468	15.422	26.027	15.342	7.011	3.206	1.466

[Week 1]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 1

Minnesota over Tennessee

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average team .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I could pretty much copy and paste from last year's week 1 notes, swapping in the correct teams

In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City Minnesota benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville St Louis :( 

Philadelphia is right behind Minnesota for NFC champ, even though Seattle and Detroit are, for now, better teams. That's likely due to the losses by the rest of the NFC East, putting Philadelphia in a good starting position.

As for the Rams, I'd say it's time to put in Austin Davis and see what he's got, or make a zany trade for a proven QB. They currently sit in last place with the lowest chances of anyone of winning the Superbowl, barely over 1%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	1-0	0.531	38.309	55.758	40.103	21.003	10.984	5.735
HOU	1-0	0.529	37.600	53.717	38.398	20.075	10.489	5.432
TEN	1-0	0.528	36.939	54.657	39.199	20.463	10.681	5.519
DET	1-0	0.527	36.482	53.815	38.355	19.940	10.349	5.366
SEA	1-0	0.526	33.030	53.489	38.080	19.743	10.207	5.280
PHI	1-0	0.524	49.153	58.358	40.924	21.085	10.826	5.581
MIA	1-0	0.520	33.887	52.097	36.688	18.829	9.637	4.902
SF	1-0	0.520	31.603	51.481	36.169	18.489	9.432	4.819
CIN	1-0	0.515	38.491	52.497	36.466	18.533	9.394	4.739
CAR	1-0	0.515	37.554	51.400	35.454	17.956	9.064	4.588
NYJ	1-0	0.513	29.458	48.005	33.236	16.821	8.499	4.272
DEN	1-0	0.511	42.567	53.589	36.983	18.606	9.334	4.672
BUF	1-0	0.506	27.315	44.195	29.948	14.927	7.436	3.684
PIT	1-0	0.505	34.889	49.017	33.211	16.495	8.179	4.039
ATL	1-0	0.504	34.908	48.783	32.874	16.231	7.989	3.956
ARI	1-0	0.503	25.816	43.804	29.459	14.510	7.140	3.526
SD	0-1	0.497	22.185	31.434	19.624	9.567	4.661	2.268
NO	0-1	0.496	14.477	25.069	15.349	7.448	3.614	1.761
CLE	0-1	0.495	14.293	24.854	15.230	7.410	3.605	1.746
CHI	0-1	0.494	14.174	25.534	15.821	7.652	3.703	1.798
IND	0-1	0.489	13.969	23.824	14.496	6.960	3.344	1.598
OAK	0-1	0.487	18.863	26.132	15.575	7.428	3.537	1.683
TB	0-1	0.485	13.060	22.895	13.671	6.473	3.063	1.459
BAL	0-1	0.485	12.327	22.008	13.177	6.265	2.979	1.412
DAL	0-1	0.480	18.021	25.203	14.676	6.869	3.218	1.517
NE	0-1	0.480	9.339	19.780	11.774	5.545	2.612	1.228
JAC	0-1	0.476	11.492	21.457	12.846	6.003	2.808	1.303
GB	0-1	0.474	11.035	18.953	11.133	5.163	2.396	1.115
NYG	0-1	0.473	16.622	23.155	13.287	6.122	2.821	1.309
KC	0-1	0.472	16.386	22.737	13.146	6.074	2.806	1.295
WAS	0-1	0.471	16.204	23.793	13.848	6.367	2.925	1.352
STL	0-1	0.469	9.551	18.509	10.799	4.950	2.270	1.046

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I'm always surprised when the teams separate enough in week 2 for me to actually have a distinct #1 and #2. In fact, there are very few ties through the ranks. There are 2-0 teams, 1-1 teams, 0-2 teams, 1-0 teams, and 0-1 teams, and I guess enough combinations of strengths of schedule to differentiate all these teams. On to the second-silliest rankings of the year: Week 2!

1	LSU	2-0
2	UCLA	2-0
3	Oklahoma	2-0
4	Maryland	2-0
5	Oregon	2-0
6	Virginia Tech	2-0
7	Tennessee	2-0
8	Arizona	2-0
9	BYU	2-0
10	Texas A&M	2-0
11	Mississippi State	2-0
12	Washington	2-0
13	Auburn	2-0
14	North Carolina	2-0
14	Illinois	2-0
16	Notre Dame	2-0
17	Florida State	2-0
18	USC	2-0
19	Missouri	2-0
20	Louisville	2-0
21	Wyoming	2-0
22	Texas Tech	2-0
23	North Carolina State	2-0
24	Iowa	2-0
25	Oregon State	2-0
26	Louisiana-Monroe	2-0
27	Northern Illinois	2-0
28	Ole Miss	2-0
29	Penn State	2-0
30	Pittsburgh	2-0
31	Minnesota	2-0
32	California	2-0
33	Alabama	2-0
34	Kansas State	2-0
35	Nebraska	2-0
36	Marshall	2-0
37	Nevada	2-0
38	Central Michigan	2-0
39	Kentucky	2-0
40	New Mexico State	2-0
41	Georgia Tech	2-0
42	Duke	2-0
43	Utah	2-0
44	Arizona State	2-0
45	Rutgers	2-0
46	Baylor	2-0
47	Syracuse	1-0
48	Georgia	1-0
49	Indiana	1-0
50	Virginia	1-1
51	Louisiana Tech	1-1
52	Ohio State	1-1
53	South Carolina	1-1
54	Boise State	1-1
55	Clemson	1-1
56	Texas State	1-0
56	Kansas	1-0
58	South Florida	1-1
59	Arkansas State	1-1
60	Michigan State	1-1
61	Wisconsin	1-1
62	Army	1-0
63	Texas	1-1
63	Florida	1-0
65	Southern Miss	1-1
66	San Jose State	1-1
67	UTSA	1-1
68	Western Kentucky	1-1
68	Stanford	1-1
70	Michigan	1-1
71	San Diego State	1-1
72	Oklahoma State	1-1
73	TCU	1-0
74	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-1
75	East Carolina	1-1
76	Florida International	1-1
77	Navy	1-1
78	Colorado State	1-1
79	Memphis	1-1
80	UNLV	1-1
81	Toledo	1-1
82	Tulsa	1-1
83	Connecticut	1-1
83	Ball State	1-1
85	Utah State	1-1
86	UAB	1-1
87	South Alabama	1-0
88	Purdue	1-1
89	Miami (FL)	1-1
90	UTEP	1-1
91	Wake Forest	1-1
92	Arkansas	1-1
93	Akron	1-1
94	Air Force	1-1
95	Georgia Southern	1-1
96	Middle Tennessee	1-1
97	West Virginia	1-1
98	Boston College	1-1
99	Ohio	1-1
100	Georgia State	1-1
101	North Texas	1-1
102	Appalachian State	1-1
102	Bowling Green	1-1
104	Buffalo	1-1
105	Eastern Michigan	1-1
106	Houston	1-1
107	Temple	1-1
108	Colorado	1-1
109	Rice	0-1
110	Idaho	0-1
111	UCF	0-1
112	Hawaii	0-2
113	Northwestern	0-2
114	Fresno State	0-2
115	Florida Atlantic	0-2
116	Iowa State	0-2
117	Miami (OH)	0-2
118	Washington State	0-2
119	Western Michigan	0-1
120	Tulane	0-2
121	Troy	0-2
122	New Mexico	0-2
123	Vanderbilt	0-2
124	SMU	0-2
125	Kent State	0-2
126	Massachusetts	0-2

2014 History

Week 1