2014-09-09

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 1

Minnesota over Tennessee

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average team .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I could pretty much copy and paste from last year's week 1 notes, swapping in the correct teams
In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City Minnesota benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville St Louis :( 
Philadelphia is right behind Minnesota for NFC champ, even though Seattle and Detroit are, for now, better teams. That's likely due to the losses by the rest of the NFC East, putting Philadelphia in a good starting position.

As for the Rams, I'd say it's time to put in Austin Davis and see what he's got, or make a zany trade for a proven QB. They currently sit in last place with the lowest chances of anyone of winning the Superbowl, barely over 1%.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
MIN1-00.53138.30955.75840.10321.00310.9845.735
HOU1-00.52937.60053.71738.39820.07510.4895.432
TEN1-00.52836.93954.65739.19920.46310.6815.519
DET1-00.52736.48253.81538.35519.94010.3495.366
SEA1-00.52633.03053.48938.08019.74310.2075.280
PHI1-00.52449.15358.35840.92421.08510.8265.581
MIA1-00.52033.88752.09736.68818.8299.6374.902
SF1-00.52031.60351.48136.16918.4899.4324.819
CIN1-00.51538.49152.49736.46618.5339.3944.739
CAR1-00.51537.55451.40035.45417.9569.0644.588
NYJ1-00.51329.45848.00533.23616.8218.4994.272
DEN1-00.51142.56753.58936.98318.6069.3344.672
BUF1-00.50627.31544.19529.94814.9277.4363.684
PIT1-00.50534.88949.01733.21116.4958.1794.039
ATL1-00.50434.90848.78332.87416.2317.9893.956
ARI1-00.50325.81643.80429.45914.5107.1403.526
SD0-10.49722.18531.43419.6249.5674.6612.268
NO0-10.49614.47725.06915.3497.4483.6141.761
CLE0-10.49514.29324.85415.2307.4103.6051.746
CHI0-10.49414.17425.53415.8217.6523.7031.798
IND0-10.48913.96923.82414.4966.9603.3441.598
OAK0-10.48718.86326.13215.5757.4283.5371.683
TB0-10.48513.06022.89513.6716.4733.0631.459
BAL0-10.48512.32722.00813.1776.2652.9791.412
DAL0-10.48018.02125.20314.6766.8693.2181.517
NE0-10.4809.33919.78011.7745.5452.6121.228
JAC0-10.47611.49221.45712.8466.0032.8081.303
GB0-10.47411.03518.95311.1335.1632.3961.115
NYG0-10.47316.62223.15513.2876.1222.8211.309
KC0-10.47216.38622.73713.1466.0742.8061.295
WAS0-10.47116.20423.79313.8486.3672.9251.352
STL0-10.4699.55118.50910.7994.9502.2701.046

2 comments:

  1. Everything is topsy-turvy! I don't know what to believe any more!

    ReplyDelete