2014-09-23

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 3, Final

Cincinnati over Arizona

It's still early in the season, but the inter-conference games still have a measurable effect on everyone's playoff odds. In fact, perhaps the effect is noticeable on everyone precisely because it is so early, and no one has completely run away with a division. There are actually no divisions that include both a 3-0 and 0-3 team, and some have only 2-1 and 1-2 teams, so the races are even closer than they could be. That means a chunk of each team's playoff odds include their chances at a wildcard, which are changed when one conference wins and another one loses in isolation, like when Chicago beat the Jets. The playoff odds for Chicago climbed by over 11 percentage points, which were all taken from the other 15 NFC teams. The Jets lost over 10 percentage points in their playoff hunt, and those were all meted out to the other AFC teams. Like every inter-conference game not involving the Rams, I was rooting for the AFC team last night, but they just couldn't pull it off, raising the bar just a bit more for the NFC Wildcard slots.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CIN3-00.58160.31181.67967.01437.75821.13911.698
ARI3-00.54857.90674.90857.16830.11715.7898.106
ATL2-10.54650.08963.19244.33423.13112.0196.138
SD2-10.54449.12564.05246.59924.08612.2566.320
DET2-10.54042.34056.72238.87319.98310.2475.176
NE2-10.53937.08651.62435.53318.0979.1174.656
BAL2-10.53520.48352.37234.03516.9868.5724.344
PHI3-00.53455.85471.43653.24627.16313.7596.874
HOU2-10.53353.00361.75642.02421.11310.4975.301
WAS1-20.53213.62830.26418.6169.3674.7152.344
SEA2-10.53128.84051.54434.49217.3698.7494.340
IND1-20.52730.78438.89123.76411.7245.7672.875
CHI2-10.52637.12752.74835.57117.7348.8204.332
BUF2-10.52440.85153.13035.39917.4348.4924.208
DEN2-10.51635.06952.16134.79116.8598.0803.939
DAL2-10.51523.15641.20826.25912.8036.2332.996
CAR2-10.51133.01948.17430.98914.9837.2393.456
NO1-20.51115.32027.68116.4347.9313.8301.827
PIT2-10.50214.19738.33823.31810.8445.1032.417
CLE1-20.4945.00917.2329.7054.4512.0660.964
KC1-20.49112.43621.96512.6655.7982.6401.224
SF1-20.4877.72218.91710.4194.7702.1910.994
MIN1-20.48413.15522.01212.4775.6832.5901.165
NYJ1-20.47913.11122.50212.9855.7772.5591.157
NYG1-20.4637.36214.0987.3983.2101.3960.598
MIA1-20.4548.95315.9908.4193.5351.4830.632
GB1-20.4527.37812.6916.5672.7791.1780.493
STL1-20.4485.53211.3925.7982.4391.0290.427
TEN1-20.44312.78218.0889.0703.7041.5100.628
OAK0-30.4363.3714.9852.3220.9320.3750.153
TB0-30.4251.5723.0121.3590.5380.2140.084
JAC0-30.4153.4315.2352.3570.8990.3440.134



[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

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