World Series
CHC 1-3 CLE
League Championship Series
TOR 1-4 CLE
LAD 2-4 CHC
Division Series
TOR 3-0 TEX
BOS 0-3 CLE
SF 1-3 CHC
LAD 3-2 WAS
Wildcard Round
BAL 0-1 TOR
SF 1-0 NYM
| Team | Strength | Win |
|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0.6682 | 22.49 |
| CLE | 0.5648 | 77.51 |
Fox showed an interesting stat on screen last night, that got me thinking entirely too much. Once the game was pretty much over, they said that the last 10 World Series teams to go up 3-1 had finished the job. They also helpfully pointed out the last teams to fail from that position was the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals. The first thing that struck me was that that means out of the 29 series (1994 was a strike year, remember) from 1986-2015, that means that 19 of them were either 2-2 after 4 games, or sweeps. That seemed disproportionate to me if the teams are evenly matched. 29 is a fairly small sample size, so I wrote it off to that in my head. Of course, when I worked it out, and there's actually a 50% chance of a series going to 3-1 if the teams are perfectly evenly matched, and it only goes down from there. So really the expected number of series that reach 3-1 would be expected to be at most 14 in that time period, so 10 is certainly reasonable.
I'll be rooting for Cleveland to finish off the series tonight, first because I'm rooting for Cleveland, but secondarily because no one really wants to see the World Series in November on a regular basis, right?
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