Tenets of Wilson: 2024-10

2024-10-29

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

I thought for sure Pittsburgh would take back the AFC lead, but they only won by 8 and couldn't quite pass Buffalo in either strength or playoff chances, so the projection stays the same for now. Pittsburgh is off next week, but I could see them or Kansas City taking over the lead if Buffalo were to lose to Miami.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-1	0.640	52.9	91.1	68.1	39.4	22.6	12.2
BUF	6-2	0.639	98.7	99.1	65.2	36.5	20.1	11.1
PIT	6-2	0.638	78.4	95.9	63.1	35.2	19.3	10.6
WSH	6-2	0.612	60.0	92.0	64.2	35.1	18.6	9.5
KC	7-0	0.597	72.4	99.0	71.4	36.6	18.0	9.2
DEN	5-3	0.617	15.5	83.2	46.4	24.2	12.6	6.7
LAC	4-3	0.604	12.0	80.1	42.9	21.7	11.0	5.7
MIN	5-2	0.591	18.8	72.5	44.2	22.4	11.3	5.5
PHI	5-2	0.576	38.5	79.5	47.7	23.8	11.6	5.5
GB	6-2	0.581	19.5	71.0	41.9	20.8	10.3	4.9
HOU	6-2	0.517	90.9	95.9	49.0	20.1	8.2	3.5
CHI	4-3	0.590	8.8	43.7	25.0	12.6	6.4	3.1
BAL	5-3	0.551	19.3	65.9	30.8	13.8	6.2	2.9
TB	4-4	0.534	33.4	53.6	25.8	11.6	5.2	2.2
ATL	5-3	0.498	64.2	71.6	31.9	13.3	5.4	2.1
SF	4-4	0.550	32.2	37.8	17.9	8.4	3.8	1.7
IND	4-4	0.506	8.1	47.1	19.6	7.9	3.2	1.3
SEA	4-4	0.491	24.7	28.9	11.9	4.8	1.9	0.8
ARI	4-4	0.451	29.2	31.8	11.7	4.3	1.6	0.6
CIN	3-5	0.486	2.2	14.1	5.6	2.1	0.8	0.3
LAR	3-4	0.443	14.0	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
NYJ	2-6	0.457	0.7	6.4	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	2-6	0.463	2.4	4.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
DAL	3-4	0.419	1.5	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAX	2-6	0.412	0.7	3.7	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-5	0.373	0.4	4.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0
CLE	2-6	0.402	0.1	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	2-6	0.380	0.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	1-6	0.371	0.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.359	0.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-6	0.373	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.306	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

2024-10-28

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit won to stay on top of the NFC, and is now the most likely Super Bowl winner. In the AFC, Kansas City and Buffalo won, with Pittsburgh yet to play, and Buffalo takes the AFC lead. Kansas City is undefeated, but keeps turning in narrow victories. If they can keep doing that, they'll become the #1 seed, but as it stands my simulation isn't as confident in them continuing to win as Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-1	0.640	52.9	91.1	68.1	39.4	22.6	12.3
BUF	6-2	0.639	98.7	99.1	65.8	37.2	20.6	11.4
WSH	6-2	0.612	59.9	92.0	64.2	35.1	18.6	9.5
KC	7-0	0.597	72.7	99.1	72.4	37.3	18.6	9.5
PIT	5-2	0.624	72.9	93.0	58.1	31.4	16.8	9.0
DEN	5-3	0.617	15.4	83.4	47.0	24.7	13.0	6.9
LAC	4-3	0.604	11.9	80.2	43.4	22.1	11.3	5.8
MIN	5-2	0.591	18.8	72.6	44.2	22.4	11.4	5.6
PHI	5-2	0.576	38.5	79.5	47.7	23.8	11.6	5.5
GB	6-2	0.581	19.5	71.0	41.9	20.8	10.3	5.0
HOU	6-2	0.517	91.0	96.0	49.4	20.5	8.4	3.6
CHI	4-3	0.590	8.8	43.7	25.0	12.6	6.4	3.1
BAL	5-3	0.551	23.9	66.8	31.5	14.2	6.4	3.0
TB	4-4	0.534	33.4	53.3	25.7	11.5	5.1	2.2
ATL	5-3	0.498	64.1	71.5	31.8	13.3	5.4	2.2
SF	4-4	0.550	32.2	37.8	17.9	8.4	3.8	1.7
IND	4-4	0.506	8.0	47.3	19.9	8.1	3.3	1.4
SEA	4-4	0.491	24.7	28.9	11.9	4.8	1.9	0.8
ARI	4-4	0.451	29.2	31.8	11.7	4.3	1.6	0.6
CIN	3-5	0.486	3.0	15.1	6.0	2.3	0.9	0.4
LAR	3-4	0.443	14.0	16.0	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
NYJ	2-6	0.457	0.7	6.4	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	2-6	0.463	2.4	4.2	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
DAL	3-4	0.419	1.5	5.7	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
JAX	2-6	0.412	0.7	3.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-5	0.373	0.4	4.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
CLE	2-6	0.402	0.2	1.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
LV	2-6	0.380	0.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	1-6	0.371	0.3	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	2-6	0.359	0.2	1.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-7	0.306	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-25

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Pittsburgh over Detroit

Minnesota took their slight lead and threw it into the garbage on Thursday night. Detroit is now your NFC leader. It will be interesting to see if Kansas City can take back over the AFC lead on Sunday, with Pittsburgh not playing until Monday night. Both are pretty likely to win, playing teams that are 2-5. I give Pittsburgh a 62% chance of a win, and Kansas City is a bit over 58%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	5-2	0.624	59.7	91.9	60.8	34.3	19.2	10.6
KC	6-0	0.584	75.0	97.3	71.9	37.6	19.1	9.8
BUF	5-2	0.606	94.4	96.5	60.4	32.8	17.5	9.4
DET	5-1	0.597	39.7	84.4	58.5	31.5	16.9	8.8
WSH	5-2	0.601	61.8	83.9	56.1	30.8	16.6	8.7
MIN	5-2	0.590	23.6	74.6	47.2	24.9	13.1	6.7
DEN	4-3	0.590	16.0	71.5	39.7	20.4	10.5	5.5
CHI	4-2	0.591	17.2	60.6	37.9	19.9	10.5	5.4
GB	5-2	0.577	19.5	66.5	40.1	20.5	10.5	5.2
BAL	5-2	0.557	35.2	78.9	42.1	20.3	9.7	4.7
TB	4-3	0.542	55.3	71.5	38.9	18.5	8.7	4.0
PHI	4-2	0.540	33.0	64.7	35.4	16.8	7.9	3.6
HOU	5-2	0.511	71.9	86.4	44.1	18.9	8.1	3.6
LAC	3-3	0.562	8.8	58.1	29.6	14.3	6.9	3.4
IND	4-3	0.512	25.0	59.6	27.5	11.8	5.1	2.3
SEA	4-3	0.528	42.6	48.6	23.3	10.7	4.9	2.2
ATL	4-3	0.489	39.2	51.8	23.4	9.9	4.1	1.7
SF	3-4	0.539	23.9	29.8	14.4	6.8	3.2	1.5
CIN	3-4	0.521	5.0	26.3	11.9	5.3	2.4	1.1
ARI	3-4	0.449	19.8	22.4	8.6	3.3	1.2	0.5
NO	2-5	0.495	5.3	10.4	4.6	2.0	0.8	0.3
NYJ	2-5	0.462	3.9	14.1	5.5	2.1	0.8	0.3
LAR	3-4	0.443	13.7	16.4	6.2	2.3	0.9	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	5.1	13.3	5.2	1.9	0.7	0.2
JAX	2-5	0.416	1.8	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	2-4	0.373	1.5	6.7	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
TEN	1-5	0.425	1.4	3.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
LV	2-5	0.392	0.1	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	1-6	0.391	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-6	0.358	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.330	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota

2024-10-22

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 7, Final

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

Despite two Monday games, no one took over the AFC or NFC, and the projection remains. The LA Chargers were riding high earlier in the season, but lost to Arizona. Baltimore won but allowed 31 points, so they didn't rise too high up the ranks either.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	5-2	0.624	59.7	91.9	60.8	34.3	19.2	10.6
KC	6-0	0.584	75.0	97.3	71.9	37.6	19.1	9.7
BUF	5-2	0.606	94.4	96.5	60.5	32.9	17.6	9.4
MIN	5-1	0.603	36.0	85.9	59.6	32.2	17.4	9.1
DET	5-1	0.597	33.9	83.5	56.8	30.3	16.1	8.4
WSH	5-2	0.601	61.6	83.1	54.2	29.6	15.8	8.2
DEN	4-3	0.590	16.0	71.5	39.7	20.4	10.5	5.4
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	59.0	36.3	18.9	9.9	5.1
GB	5-2	0.577	15.9	65.1	38.8	19.6	9.9	4.9
BAL	5-2	0.557	35.2	78.8	42.1	20.3	9.7	4.7
TB	4-3	0.542	55.4	70.7	37.5	17.7	8.2	3.8
HOU	5-2	0.511	72.1	86.4	44.1	18.9	8.1	3.5
PHI	4-2	0.540	33.1	64.0	34.1	16.1	7.5	3.4
LAC	3-3	0.562	8.8	58.0	29.6	14.3	6.9	3.4
IND	4-3	0.512	24.8	59.4	27.4	11.8	5.1	2.2
SEA	4-3	0.528	45.3	50.5	23.8	10.9	4.9	2.2
ATL	4-3	0.489	39.0	50.8	22.6	9.5	3.9	1.6
SF	3-4	0.539	26.0	31.4	14.9	7.0	3.2	1.5
CIN	3-4	0.521	5.0	26.3	11.9	5.3	2.4	1.1
ARI	3-4	0.449	21.2	23.5	8.8	3.4	1.3	0.5
NO	2-5	0.495	5.5	10.2	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.3
NYJ	2-5	0.462	3.9	14.3	5.6	2.1	0.8	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	5.1	12.8	4.9	1.8	0.6	0.2
LAR	2-4	0.426	7.5	8.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1
JAX	2-5	0.416	1.8	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	2-4	0.373	1.5	6.8	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
TEN	1-5	0.425	1.3	3.6	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
LV	2-5	0.392	0.1	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	1-6	0.391	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-6	0.358	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.330	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-21

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Pittsburgh over Minnesota

Minnesota lost to Detroit, but stays on top of the NFC. Right behind them is Detroit, who currently owns the head to head tiebreaker. Pittsburgh had a huge victory to finally pass Kansas City, and is now the most likely Super Bowl winner.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	5-2	0.624	66.3	91.8	61.0	34.6	19.3	10.6
KC	6-0	0.584	71.2	97.3	71.5	37.4	19.0	9.7
BUF	5-2	0.606	94.4	96.5	60.7	33.0	17.7	9.4
MIN	5-1	0.603	36.0	85.6	58.5	31.5	16.9	8.9
DET	5-1	0.597	33.9	83.2	55.4	29.4	15.6	8.1
WSH	5-2	0.601	61.5	82.8	53.1	28.7	15.3	8.0
DEN	4-3	0.590	14.9	71.8	39.9	20.6	10.6	5.5
TB	4-2	0.559	66.4	81.0	47.4	23.3	11.2	5.4
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	58.6	35.5	18.4	9.6	4.9
GB	5-2	0.577	15.9	64.5	37.7	19.0	9.6	4.8
LAC	3-2	0.565	13.8	70.3	37.4	18.3	8.9	4.4
HOU	5-2	0.511	72.2	86.3	44.4	19.1	8.2	3.6
BAL	4-2	0.544	27.5	67.0	33.8	15.8	7.4	3.5
PHI	4-2	0.539	33.3	63.8	33.4	15.7	7.2	3.3
SEA	4-3	0.528	48.3	52.8	24.6	11.2	5.1	2.3
IND	4-3	0.512	24.7	59.2	27.4	11.8	5.1	2.2
SF	3-4	0.539	28.2	32.9	15.5	7.2	3.3	1.5
ATL	4-3	0.489	29.6	46.4	20.6	8.6	3.5	1.5
CIN	3-4	0.521	6.1	26.1	11.9	5.3	2.3	1.0
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.1	16.5	6.1	2.3	0.9	0.3
NYJ	2-5	0.462	3.9	14.2	5.5	2.1	0.8	0.3
NO	2-5	0.495	3.9	9.0	3.9	1.6	0.7	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	5.0	12.5	4.7	1.7	0.6	0.2
LAR	2-4	0.426	8.4	9.3	3.3	1.2	0.4	0.1
JAX	2-5	0.416	1.8	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	2-4	0.373	1.5	6.8	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
TEN	1-5	0.425	1.3	3.5	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1
LV	2-5	0.393	0.1	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	2-5	0.388	0.1	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	1-6	0.391	0.1	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	1-6	0.358	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
CAR	1-6	0.330	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2024-10-18

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Week 7 sounds so far into the season, even though there are now 18 weeks. Denver won big and is the strongest team in the AFC West, but Kansas City's 2-game lead (1 more win and 3 less losses) is keeping them in the driver's seat for now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	52.7	92.1	70.0	38.7	21.4	11.8
KC	5-0	0.567	62.4	93.6	66.2	34.4	17.7	8.8
PIT	4-2	0.588	56.2	83.0	52.0	28.2	15.2	7.9
DET	4-1	0.594	22.4	74.9	48.4	25.8	13.8	7.4
BUF	4-2	0.567	80.0	87.3	50.7	26.3	13.5	6.8
DEN	4-3	0.590	19.3	72.0	42.3	22.8	12.3	6.5
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	62.9	38.9	20.5	10.9	5.8
TB	4-2	0.559	51.9	78.9	46.3	23.3	11.4	5.7
LAC	3-2	0.565	17.9	69.0	38.8	19.9	10.2	5.1
HOU	5-1	0.515	80.5	90.0	52.4	24.1	10.9	4.9
WSH	4-2	0.552	58.8	72.3	40.6	20.1	9.7	4.8
GB	4-2	0.572	10.7	57.8	33.8	17.1	8.7	4.5
BAL	4-2	0.544	37.4	69.0	37.3	18.4	9.0	4.3
ATL	4-2	0.526	45.2	69.0	36.4	17.0	7.7	3.6
SF	3-3	0.556	48.9	54.1	27.2	13.5	6.6	3.3
IND	3-3	0.500	14.7	44.2	20.8	9.2	4.1	1.8
PHI	3-2	0.488	28.3	45.8	21.0	8.9	3.7	1.6
NYJ	2-4	0.512	14.5	34.8	16.4	7.5	3.4	1.5
SEA	3-3	0.493	28.8	33.6	14.6	6.3	2.7	1.2
CIN	2-4	0.509	5.9	19.6	9.1	4.1	1.9	0.8
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.6	17.3	6.5	2.6	1.0	0.4
TEN	1-4	0.471	4.0	11.2	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.3
NO	2-5	0.495	2.7	9.1	4.1	1.8	0.8	0.3
DAL	3-3	0.429	10.1	16.9	6.5	2.4	0.9	0.3
MIA	2-3	0.392	4.6	13.6	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
NYG	2-4	0.441	2.9	7.1	2.8	1.0	0.4	0.2
LAR	1-4	0.423	6.7	7.5	2.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
LV	2-4	0.405	0.4	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1
CLE	1-5	0.407	0.5	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
JAX	1-5	0.396	0.8	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
NE	1-5	0.382	0.9	2.3	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-5	0.365	0.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

2024-10-15

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

Buffalo beat New York, but still sits behind undefeated Kansas City and slightly behind Pittsburgh. Buffalo was a top team earlier in the year, but fell off just a bit, and the narrow victory kept them from gaining more ground. Buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	52.9	91.8	69.8	38.6	21.4	11.9
KC	5-0	0.567	69.8	94.7	68.7	36.3	18.9	9.4
PIT	4-2	0.588	55.5	84.3	53.2	29.2	15.9	8.3
DET	4-1	0.594	22.5	74.1	47.9	25.6	13.7	7.4
BUF	4-2	0.567	80.0	87.9	51.9	27.2	14.2	7.1
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	62.0	38.4	20.3	10.8	5.8
TB	4-2	0.559	49.1	76.7	45.1	22.6	11.1	5.6
LAC	3-2	0.565	19.6	71.3	40.4	20.9	10.9	5.4
HOU	5-1	0.515	80.1	90.5	53.5	24.9	11.4	5.1
WSH	4-2	0.552	58.2	71.2	39.9	19.7	9.5	4.8
BAL	4-2	0.544	38.0	71.7	39.3	19.5	9.7	4.6
GB	4-2	0.572	10.5	56.0	32.7	16.5	8.4	4.4
ATL	4-2	0.526	43.9	67.7	35.9	16.7	7.6	3.6
SF	3-3	0.556	49.0	53.9	27.1	13.5	6.6	3.3
DEN	3-3	0.540	10.1	52.6	27.3	13.4	6.6	3.1
IND	3-3	0.500	15.2	47.4	22.5	10.0	4.5	1.9
NYJ	2-4	0.512	14.5	36.5	17.4	8.0	3.7	1.6
PHI	3-2	0.488	28.7	45.5	20.8	8.9	3.7	1.6
SEA	3-3	0.493	28.8	33.3	14.5	6.3	2.7	1.2
NO	2-4	0.533	6.8	19.5	9.7	4.5	2.1	1.0
CIN	2-4	0.509	6.0	21.9	10.2	4.7	2.2	1.0
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.6	17.2	6.5	2.5	1.0	0.4
TEN	1-4	0.471	3.9	12.1	5.2	2.2	0.9	0.4
DAL	3-3	0.429	10.2	16.6	6.3	2.3	0.8	0.3
MIA	2-3	0.392	4.6	14.6	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2
NYG	2-4	0.441	2.9	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	6.5	7.2	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1
LV	2-4	0.405	0.5	6.7	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1
CLE	1-5	0.407	0.5	2.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	1-5	0.396	0.8	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NE	1-5	0.382	0.9	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-5	0.365	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

2024-10-14

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

I appreciate the NFL putting the two Super Bowl teams on bye in the same week. It really keeps the projection clean and doesn't cause a team like Pittsburgh or Detroit to sneak in for a single week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	52.8	91.8	69.8	38.6	21.4	11.9
KC	5-0	0.567	69.9	94.6	69.2	36.6	19.1	9.6
PIT	4-2	0.588	55.4	84.1	53.3	29.4	16.1	8.4
DET	4-1	0.594	22.5	74.2	48.0	25.6	13.7	7.5
CHI	4-2	0.591	14.2	62.0	38.4	20.3	10.8	5.8
BUF	3-2	0.560	63.0	76.3	43.3	22.4	11.5	5.7
TB	4-2	0.559	49.1	76.7	45.0	22.6	11.1	5.6
LAC	3-2	0.565	19.6	70.9	40.5	21.1	11.0	5.5
HOU	5-1	0.515	80.0	90.4	53.5	25.0	11.5	5.2
WSH	4-2	0.552	58.2	71.2	39.9	19.7	9.5	4.8
BAL	4-2	0.544	38.1	71.6	39.3	19.6	9.7	4.6
GB	4-2	0.572	10.4	55.9	32.7	16.5	8.4	4.4
ATL	4-2	0.526	43.9	67.7	35.9	16.7	7.6	3.6
SF	3-3	0.556	49.2	54.0	27.2	13.5	6.6	3.3
DEN	3-3	0.540	10.0	52.2	27.4	13.4	6.6	3.1
NYJ	2-3	0.520	30.4	50.8	25.4	12.0	5.6	2.5
IND	3-3	0.500	15.2	47.0	22.5	10.1	4.5	2.0
PHI	3-2	0.488	28.7	45.5	20.8	8.9	3.7	1.6
SEA	3-3	0.493	28.8	33.3	14.4	6.3	2.7	1.2
NO	2-4	0.533	6.8	19.5	9.7	4.5	2.1	1.0
CIN	2-4	0.509	6.0	21.5	10.1	4.7	2.1	0.9
ARI	2-4	0.448	15.5	17.1	6.5	2.5	1.0	0.4
TEN	1-4	0.471	4.0	12.0	5.2	2.2	0.9	0.4
DAL	3-3	0.429	10.2	16.6	6.3	2.3	0.8	0.3
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.6	14.4	5.2	1.8	0.6	0.2
NYG	2-4	0.441	2.9	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	6.5	7.2	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1
LV	2-4	0.405	0.5	6.5	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1
CLE	1-5	0.407	0.5	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	1-5	0.396	0.8	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NE	1-5	0.382	0.9	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
CAR	1-5	0.365	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

2024-10-11

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Minnesota over Kansas City

After Thursday's game, Seattle and San Francisco are both 3-3 and no threat to Minnesota, who stays on top of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	67.1	94.3	75.6	43.5	24.9	14.1
KC	5-0	0.566	68.5	95.0	72.9	39.7	21.4	11.0
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.4	79.6	49.8	26.0	13.2	6.9
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.3	77.2	46.1	24.6	13.0	6.6
DEN	3-2	0.557	19.4	69.9	41.8	21.9	11.5	5.8
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.5	72.5	42.8	22.3	11.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.7	65.2	35.8	18.0	8.9	4.3
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.3	53.8	31.4	15.9	8.1	4.2
LAC	2-2	0.550	10.7	56.2	31.8	16.4	8.5	4.2
NO	2-3	0.575	31.2	49.4	28.2	14.9	7.8	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.0	57.6	33.1	16.1	7.9	4.0
SF	3-3	0.556	44.1	52.7	28.2	14.4	7.2	3.7
HOU	4-1	0.476	67.8	79.8	42.5	18.6	8.1	3.4
TB	3-2	0.523	33.9	55.7	29.6	14.1	6.6	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.520	30.0	52.8	27.5	13.4	6.5	3.0
GB	3-2	0.536	7.5	44.1	24.0	11.5	5.6	2.8
ATL	3-2	0.492	33.5	51.1	25.1	11.2	4.9	2.2
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.1	41.9	20.5	9.1	4.0	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.7	36.7	18.0	8.2	3.7	1.7
SEA	3-3	0.493	25.4	31.9	14.8	6.6	2.9	1.3
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.3	33.6	15.8	6.7	2.9	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	25.8	31.3	14.2	6.2	2.7	1.2
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.9	25.1	11.7	5.1	2.3	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.4	16.0	7.5	3.4	1.6	0.7
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.9	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.5
LV	2-3	0.437	1.4	16.9	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.4
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.4	15.3	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.1
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	6.9	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.7	5.7	2.2	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-08

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

With 2 teams at 5-0, we're nowhere near a sure thing, but I don't think I would bet against a Super Bowl IV rematch. 55 years is a weird anniversary to choose for a reprise though, so maybe Pittsburgh with turn things around and we can have an IX rematch.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	66.7	94.2	75.1	43.3	24.8	14.1
KC	5-0	0.566	68.7	95.1	73.1	39.9	21.5	11.1
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.3	79.5	49.8	26.1	13.3	7.0
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.5	77.2	46.0	24.6	12.9	6.6
DEN	3-2	0.557	19.3	69.9	41.8	21.9	11.5	5.8
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.5	72.5	42.8	22.3	11.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.7	65.2	35.8	18.0	8.9	4.3
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.4	53.7	31.4	16.0	8.2	4.3
LAC	2-2	0.550	10.6	56.2	31.8	16.4	8.5	4.2
NO	2-3	0.575	31.2	49.3	28.2	14.9	7.8	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.3	58.0	33.5	16.3	8.0	4.0
HOU	4-1	0.476	67.8	79.8	42.4	18.6	8.1	3.4
TB	3-2	0.523	34.3	56.1	29.9	14.3	6.7	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.519	29.8	52.4	27.3	13.3	6.4	3.0
GB	3-2	0.536	7.6	44.0	24.0	11.6	5.6	2.8
SEA	3-2	0.515	44.9	51.0	25.6	12.0	5.5	2.6
ATL	3-2	0.492	33.1	50.6	24.9	11.1	4.9	2.2
SF	2-3	0.537	26.0	34.5	17.6	8.6	4.1	2.1
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.3	42.2	20.7	9.2	4.0	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.7	36.7	18.0	8.2	3.7	1.7
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.2	33.6	15.8	6.8	2.9	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	24.6	30.3	13.8	6.0	2.6	1.2
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.9	25.1	11.8	5.2	2.3	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.4	16.0	7.5	3.4	1.6	0.7
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.9	6.6	2.7	1.1	0.5
LV	2-3	0.437	1.4	17.0	7.3	2.9	1.2	0.5
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.5	15.6	5.8	2.1	0.7	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	6.9	2.8	1.1	0.4	0.2
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	6.9	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.4	5.5	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-07

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Minnesota is the first team to 5-0, and Buffalo lost to clean up that weird mess where they were both behind and ahead of Kansas City.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	5-0	0.605	66.7	93.9	74.6	42.9	24.5	14.0
KC	4-0	0.541	55.7	88.9	61.8	32.1	16.5	8.0
BUF	3-2	0.560	62.8	77.8	47.5	25.6	13.7	6.9
WSH	4-1	0.561	61.2	78.8	49.1	25.6	13.0	6.9
DEN	3-2	0.557	26.7	71.1	43.6	23.2	12.4	6.2
PIT	3-2	0.549	49.8	73.1	44.3	23.3	12.2	6.0
NO	2-2	0.583	40.8	60.7	36.1	19.6	10.4	5.7
BAL	3-2	0.533	41.4	65.3	37.0	18.8	9.5	4.5
LAC	2-2	0.550	15.4	57.0	32.9	17.2	9.0	4.5
CHI	3-2	0.559	11.4	52.7	30.7	15.5	7.9	4.2
DET	3-1	0.540	14.3	57.0	32.7	15.9	7.8	4.0
HOU	4-1	0.476	68.2	80.2	44.4	19.7	8.7	3.7
TB	3-2	0.523	30.0	54.5	28.9	13.7	6.4	3.2
NYJ	2-3	0.520	29.5	52.7	28.0	13.8	6.7	3.1
GB	3-2	0.536	7.5	42.9	23.2	11.2	5.4	2.7
SEA	3-2	0.515	44.8	50.6	25.3	11.8	5.4	2.6
ATL	3-2	0.492	28.1	48.3	23.7	10.5	4.6	2.1
SF	2-3	0.537	26.3	34.5	17.6	8.5	4.1	2.1
DAL	3-2	0.493	20.3	41.4	20.2	8.9	3.9	1.8
IND	2-3	0.495	15.5	37.0	18.4	8.5	3.9	1.7
PHI	2-2	0.481	14.3	32.7	15.3	6.5	2.8	1.3
ARI	2-3	0.484	24.5	29.9	13.5	5.9	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	12.8	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
CIN	1-4	0.492	6.3	16.1	7.7	3.6	1.7	0.7
LV	2-3	0.437	2.2	18.0	7.8	3.2	1.3	0.5
NYG	2-3	0.467	4.2	14.4	6.3	2.6	1.1	0.5
MIA	2-3	0.392	5.5	15.7	6.0	2.2	0.8	0.3
JAX	1-4	0.424	3.5	7.5	3.0	1.2	0.5	0.2
CLE	1-4	0.418	2.5	7.1	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.2
NE	1-4	0.408	2.2	7.0	2.7	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	1-4	0.423	4.4	5.3	2.0	0.8	0.3	0.1
CAR	1-4	0.387	1.1	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0

2024-10-04

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Minnesota over Kansas City

On Thursday, Atlanta beat Tampa, but both teams are near the middle of the pack, each at 3-2, so the projection stays the same until Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.590	63.4	91.2	69.8	39.6	22.3	12.5
BUF	3-1	0.561	63.0	81.9	53.5	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	60.0	87.2	59.7	31.1	16.0	8.0
PIT	3-1	0.556	59.1	79.1	50.8	27.3	14.5	7.4
NO	2-2	0.583	40.6	63.5	38.8	21.5	11.7	6.5
DET	3-1	0.540	21.3	64.1	38.0	19.1	9.5	4.9
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.0	70.0	40.4	19.9	9.6	4.8
SEA	3-1	0.531	52.6	65.2	37.1	18.4	9.0	4.5
LAC	2-2	0.550	17.6	55.0	31.5	16.5	8.7	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	30.9	60.4	34.2	17.4	8.8	4.4
TB	3-2	0.523	28.5	56.1	30.6	14.9	7.1	3.5
BAL	2-2	0.532	26.1	50.5	27.9	14.1	7.1	3.5
SF	2-2	0.538	31.4	46.9	25.4	12.7	6.3	3.2
DEN	2-2	0.521	15.3	47.5	25.9	12.8	6.3	3.0
HOU	3-1	0.470	51.2	65.3	33.5	14.7	6.4	2.8
IND	2-2	0.500	31.7	51.8	27.1	12.7	6.0	2.7
ATL	3-2	0.492	28.0	51.5	26.1	11.9	5.3	2.5
GB	2-2	0.527	8.0	38.2	20.5	9.9	4.9	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	7.3	34.7	18.0	8.3	3.9	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.9	36.5	17.8	8.0	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.5	38.4	18.4	8.1	3.5	1.6
LV	2-2	0.463	7.1	31.5	15.0	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	9.9	22.9	11.2	5.3	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	14.7	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
ARI	1-3	0.483	11.1	18.0	8.4	3.7	1.6	0.7
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.9	14.0	6.3	2.7	1.1	0.5
NE	1-3	0.425	3.7	14.1	5.9	2.3	0.9	0.4
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.7	9.0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.434	4.9	8.5	3.5	1.4	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.419	2.9	8.3	3.3	1.3	0.5	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.401	2.4	9.5	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.4	4.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1

2024-10-01

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Final

Minnesota over Kansas City

Minnesota's nearest competitor, Seattle, lost on Monday, but they lost to their division rival, Detroit. On net it was pretty much a wash for Minnesota, but they remain on top. Tennessee and Miami played too, but at 1-3 for each of them, no one was really bothered.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.589	63.5	91.3	69.1	39.1	21.9	12.3
BUF	3-1	0.560	63.0	81.9	53.5	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	59.7	87.1	59.5	31.1	16.0	7.9
PIT	3-1	0.555	59.2	79.0	50.8	27.3	14.5	7.4
NO	2-2	0.583	37.3	63.1	38.3	21.1	11.5	6.4
TB	3-1	0.537	45.1	71.8	42.6	21.3	10.5	5.3
DET	3-1	0.540	21.3	64.5	37.8	18.9	9.4	4.8
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.2	70.3	40.1	19.7	9.5	4.8
SEA	3-1	0.531	52.8	65.5	36.8	18.2	8.8	4.4
LAC	2-2	0.550	17.7	54.9	31.5	16.5	8.7	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	30.9	60.4	34.2	17.4	8.8	4.3
BAL	2-2	0.531	26.0	50.3	27.8	14.1	7.1	3.5
SF	2-2	0.538	31.1	46.7	25.2	12.5	6.2	3.2
DEN	2-2	0.521	15.5	47.8	26.1	12.9	6.3	3.0
HOU	3-1	0.471	51.2	65.3	33.5	14.7	6.4	2.8
IND	2-2	0.500	31.7	51.8	27.1	12.8	6.0	2.7
GB	2-2	0.527	8.0	38.4	20.5	9.9	4.8	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	7.3	34.8	17.9	8.3	3.8	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.8	36.5	17.7	7.9	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.4	38.6	18.4	8.0	3.5	1.6
ATL	2-2	0.479	15.0	34.7	16.7	7.3	3.2	1.4
LV	2-2	0.463	7.1	31.6	15.1	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	9.9	22.9	11.2	5.3	2.5	1.1
TEN	1-3	0.478	14.7	25.3	12.0	5.4	2.4	1.0
ARI	1-3	0.483	11.1	18.1	8.3	3.7	1.6	0.7
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.9	14.0	6.3	2.7	1.2	0.5
NE	1-3	0.425	3.7	14.1	5.9	2.3	0.9	0.4
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.6	9.0	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.434	4.9	8.6	3.5	1.4	0.5	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.401	2.4	9.5	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.419	2.6	8.2	3.3	1.2	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.4	4.1	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1