Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 3, Final

Kansas City over Green Bay

Kansas City beat Baltimore Monday night and took their place atop the AFC. Something I didn't noticed Sunday is that San Francisco and Indianapolis, 3rd and 4th when you sort by championship chances, are actually stronger than the top 2 teams. They're both less likely to make the playoffs by ~20 percentage points, though. Indianapolis is in 2nd place behind 3-0 Tennessee, and San Francisco is actually in last place in their division, albeit requiring some very incomplete tiebreakers to put them there, with 3 teams at 2-1 and Seattle at 3-0.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.553	66.38	85.00	56.46	29.82	15.59	8.19
GB	3-0	0.548	53.51	83.23	55.43	29.35	15.39	7.90
SF	2-1	0.571	23.52	63.81	40.61	22.40	12.33	6.62
IND	2-1	0.570	42.06	67.07	41.13	22.35	12.10	6.56
PIT	3-0	0.543	46.86	76.50	47.59	24.52	12.55	6.47
SEA	3-0	0.535	36.62	75.85	48.27	24.77	12.64	6.34
CHI	3-0	0.525	41.18	77.79	48.74	24.45	12.17	5.98
BAL	2-1	0.560	35.33	66.30	39.61	21.06	11.17	5.94
BUF	3-0	0.527	53.56	74.77	44.28	21.98	10.83	5.40
TB	2-1	0.540	54.27	67.04	39.24	20.39	10.48	5.30
NE	2-1	0.538	36.14	63.42	36.40	18.46	9.33	4.76
TEN	3-0	0.511	46.64	70.13	39.63	18.98	9.05	4.37
ARI	2-1	0.532	21.70	58.37	34.02	17.29	8.76	4.37
LAR	2-1	0.531	18.15	55.66	32.67	16.56	8.39	4.17
LV	2-1	0.497	22.27	45.27	23.02	10.64	4.92	2.31
DAL	1-2	0.486	39.74	43.94	20.79	9.48	4.32	1.95
CLE	2-1	0.477	14.03	40.32	19.53	8.65	3.83	1.72
NO	1-2	0.490	22.03	34.12	16.75	7.80	3.61	1.65
MIA	1-2	0.511	8.96	29.26	14.72	7.01	3.35	1.62
WAS	1-2	0.463	31.79	36.30	16.42	7.12	3.08	1.32
LAC	1-2	0.487	8.49	27.33	13.15	5.94	2.69	1.24
CAR	1-2	0.475	14.64	26.49	12.68	5.70	2.55	1.13
JAC	1-2	0.474	8.65	22.08	10.21	4.50	1.98	0.89
DET	1-2	0.463	3.46	21.15	9.94	4.31	1.88	0.81
CIN	0-2-1	0.484	3.78	15.20	7.14	3.21	1.45	0.66
PHI	0-2-1	0.450	17.54	20.39	8.80	3.70	1.55	0.65
ATL	0-3	0.474	9.06	12.90	5.86	2.64	1.18	0.52
MIN	0-3	0.459	1.85	10.51	4.82	2.07	0.90	0.38
NYG	0-3	0.424	10.93	12.43	4.98	1.96	0.77	0.30
DEN	0-3	0.444	2.86	7.32	3.09	1.27	0.52	0.22
HOU	0-3	0.438	2.65	5.82	2.41	0.98	0.40	0.16
NYJ	0-3	0.416	1.34	4.22	1.66	0.63	0.24	0.10

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Baltimore over Green Bay

Today is a day which comes once every few years, where I get to explain why a team is at the top of the chart, yet my projection has them losing. In this case, Green Bay is currently the most likely league champion, and Baltimore is the second most likely. However, if you'll look at the strength column, Baltimore is a stronger team than Green Bay. So, in a matchup between them, Baltimore would be favored. Green Bay is a more likely champ overall, because they're already 83% likely to make the playoffs, versus Baltimore's paltry 75%. I modeled my projection after a contest that asked to pick the winner and loser of the Super Bowl, so that's why I've gone with this method instead of just declaring who is #1 each week. Either way, Baltimore will probably clean all of this up Monday night, win or lose.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	3-0	0.547	53.51	83.17	55.38	29.32	15.37	7.94
BAL	2-0	0.559	42.16	75.19	48.28	25.92	13.85	7.36
IND	2-1	0.570	42.05	67.03	41.51	22.72	12.38	6.71
SF	2-1	0.571	23.52	63.74	40.56	22.37	12.32	6.65
PIT	3-0	0.543	42.50	76.53	48.18	24.97	12.87	6.63
SEA	3-0	0.535	36.62	75.79	48.23	24.75	12.63	6.37
CHI	3-0	0.525	41.18	77.72	48.68	24.42	12.16	6.01
BUF	3-0	0.527	53.55	74.91	44.63	22.30	11.06	5.52
KC	2-0	0.531	54.74	72.12	42.98	21.65	10.83	5.45
TB	2-1	0.540	54.28	67.20	39.38	20.46	10.51	5.35
NE	2-1	0.538	36.15	63.71	36.89	18.84	9.58	4.88
TEN	3-0	0.511	46.64	70.08	40.06	19.33	9.28	4.49
ARI	2-1	0.532	21.70	58.30	33.97	17.27	8.75	4.39
LAR	2-1	0.531	18.15	55.59	32.62	16.54	8.38	4.19
LV	2-1	0.497	29.13	47.44	24.21	11.27	5.23	2.45
DAL	1-2	0.486	39.74	43.92	20.78	9.48	4.31	1.96
CLE	2-1	0.477	12.18	40.30	19.79	8.81	3.93	1.77
NO	1-2	0.490	22.02	34.28	16.84	7.84	3.63	1.67
MIA	1-2	0.511	8.96	29.41	14.90	7.15	3.43	1.66
WAS	1-2	0.463	31.79	36.28	16.41	7.11	3.08	1.33
LAC	1-2	0.487	11.84	28.08	13.61	6.19	2.82	1.29
CAR	1-2	0.475	14.64	26.65	12.76	5.74	2.57	1.14
JAC	1-2	0.474	8.65	21.97	10.27	4.56	2.02	0.90
DET	1-2	0.463	3.46	21.09	9.91	4.30	1.87	0.81
CIN	0-2-1	0.484	3.17	15.02	7.13	3.23	1.47	0.67
PHI	0-2-1	0.450	17.54	20.38	8.79	3.69	1.55	0.65
ATL	0-3	0.474	9.06	12.98	5.90	2.66	1.19	0.53
MIN	0-3	0.459	1.85	10.48	4.81	2.07	0.89	0.38
NYG	0-3	0.424	10.93	12.43	4.98	1.96	0.77	0.31
DEN	0-3	0.444	4.29	8.19	3.47	1.43	0.59	0.25
HOU	0-3	0.438	2.66	5.77	2.40	0.98	0.40	0.17
NYJ	0-3	0.416	1.34	4.25	1.68	0.65	0.25	0.10

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 3, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

20 more teams joined the fray this week, and we're now over half of the teams we'd have in a normal season. Because most of these new teams played each other, we've got a bunch of teams tied at 1-0 and 0-1, as we usually see in week 1.

Miami retained the #1 spot. I thought we might have a chance to get a new #1 every week with the weird schedule, but for now Miami is the reigning champ.

Missouri finally played a game, technically. They lose 38-19 to Alabama, which doesn't sound too bad, but most of that 19 points was scored once Alabama knew the game was out of reach, including a touchdown as time expired. There was a little hope among Missouri fans that perhaps they could catch Alabama off guard in a bad season opener, since they wouldn't get their FCS warmup games, but there was no such luck to be had.

At the bottom, Southern Mississippi dropped 20 spots, remaining in last place but moving from #52 to #72 thanks to the newly active teams.

1	Miami	3-0
2	Louisiana	3-0
3	SMU	3-0
4	Pittsburgh	3-0
5	UTSA	3-0
6	UTEP	3-1
7	Texas	2-0
8	BYU	2-0
9	Marshall	2-0
10	UAB	2-1
11	Oklahoma State	2-0
12	Cincinnati	2-0
13	UCF	2-0
14	Notre Dame	2-0
15	Boston College	2-0
16	Liberty	2-0
17	Appalachian State	2-1
18	Coastal Carolina	2-0
19	Tulane	2-1
20	Clemson	2-0
21	Louisiana Tech	2-0
22	Army	2-1
23	Navy	1-1
24	Memphis	1-0
25	North Carolina	1-0
26	Virginia Tech	1-0
T-27	Alabama	1-0
T-27	Georgia	1-0
T-27	Florida	1-0
T-27	Mississippi State	1-0
T-27	Auburn	1-0
T-27	Texas A&M	1-0
T-27	Tennessee	1-0
T-27	West Virginia	1-1
35	Arkansas State	1-1
36	Iowa State	1-1
37	Baylor	1-0
38	Virginia	1-0
39	Louisville	1-2
40	Georgia Southern	1-1
41	Syracuse	1-2
42	Troy	1-1
43	North Texas	1-1
44	Texas Tech	1-1
45	Kansas State	1-1
46	South Florida	1-1
47	Texas State	1-3
48	NC State	1-1
49	South Alabama	1-2
50	Oklahoma	1-1
51	Georgia Tech	1-2
52	Georgia State	0-1
53	Tulsa	0-1
54	East Carolina	0-1
55	Florida International	0-1
56	Charlotte	0-1
T-57	Missouri	0-1
T-57	Arkansas	0-1
T-57	Ole Miss	0-1
T-57	LSU	0-1
T-57	Kentucky	0-1
T-57	Vanderbilt	0-1
T-57	South Carolina	0-1
64	TCU	0-1
65	Florida State	0-2
T-66	Western Kentucky	0-2
T-66	Kansas	0-2
68	Duke	0-3
T-69	Wake Forest	0-2
T-69	Middle Tennessee	0-3
71	UL Monroe	0-3
72	Southern Mississippi	0-3

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army
Week 3 Miami

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Baltimore over Green Bay

I thought last year almost all of the Thursday night games were within a single division, thus causing them to either have little to no effect to the top of the table, or to totally obliterate it. Miami beat Jacksonville, but as both teams are 1-2, and neither are in a division with Baltimore, the projection remains the same for today. Both top teams will get primetime games this week, with Green Bay closing out Sunday's games at New Orleans.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	2-0	0.559	49.78	77.89	51.94	28.48	15.55	8.43
GB	2-0	0.537	51.18	75.57	48.10	25.33	13.23	6.83
ARI	2-0	0.536	32.52	71.53	45.63	23.90	12.51	6.46
LAR	2-0	0.538	29.17	68.87	43.77	23.01	12.08	6.25
KC	2-0	0.531	41.53	69.90	42.96	22.13	11.33	5.83
PIT	2-0	0.530	36.44	68.69	42.17	21.63	11.07	5.68
CHI	2-0	0.519	40.35	69.86	42.45	21.44	10.77	5.37
BUF	2-0	0.523	53.61	69.52	41.10	20.81	10.47	5.30
SEA	2-0	0.526	26.34	65.12	39.98	20.43	10.45	5.27
LV	2-0	0.521	37.25	63.88	37.81	19.04	9.54	4.81
TEN	2-0	0.510	49.91	67.62	39.34	19.33	9.44	4.66
SF	1-1	0.529	11.96	43.94	25.37	13.00	6.68	3.39
IND	1-1	0.522	29.13	47.67	26.57	13.34	6.68	3.37
NO	1-1	0.502	38.07	50.69	27.21	13.22	6.39	3.08
TB	1-1	0.505	33.66	47.83	25.76	12.61	6.15	2.98
NE	1-1	0.510	27.58	46.42	25.15	12.33	6.03	2.97
DAL	1-1	0.497	37.45	47.99	24.99	11.98	5.73	2.73
WAS	1-1	0.489	36.74	46.34	23.60	11.13	5.23	2.46
LAC	1-1	0.500	14.28	39.55	20.85	9.99	4.79	2.31
MIA	1-2	0.511	13.37	31.47	16.37	8.02	3.93	1.94
CLE	1-1	0.459	8.41	28.94	13.81	6.04	2.65	1.17
JAC	1-2	0.474	12.80	25.63	12.31	5.57	2.52	1.16
ATL	0-2	0.482	16.46	22.73	10.95	5.09	2.36	1.09
CAR	0-2	0.471	11.81	20.16	9.69	4.40	1.99	0.90
NYG	0-2	0.466	15.18	21.27	9.95	4.46	2.00	0.89
CIN	0-2	0.484	5.37	17.22	8.43	3.91	1.82	0.85
DEN	0-2	0.483	6.95	17.51	8.49	3.92	1.81	0.85
MIN	0-2	0.462	4.81	16.81	8.00	3.56	1.58	0.70
DET	0-2	0.463	3.66	15.04	7.12	3.17	1.41	0.63
PHI	0-2	0.456	10.63	16.25	7.42	3.25	1.42	0.62
HOU	0-2	0.454	8.16	14.87	6.71	2.89	1.25	0.55
NYJ	0-2	0.452	5.44	13.25	5.99	2.58	1.12	0.49

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

[Week 2, Final] Baltimore over Green Bay

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 2, Final

Baltimore over Green Bay

Monday night's game had Las Vegas winning their home opener against New Orleans. Both teams were 1-0, so either way, we were going to get a record number of 2-0 teams (11) at the end of the week (barring a tie of course). The New Orleans loss had the effect of pulling 0-2 Atlanta back above 1% likely to be champs, which was a nice clean dividing line we had after Sunday's games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	2-0	0.559	49.70	77.22	51.22	28.07	15.33	8.31
GB	2-0	0.537	51.19	75.18	47.69	25.11	13.10	6.76
ARI	2-0	0.536	32.53	71.98	46.01	24.09	12.61	6.51
LAR	2-0	0.538	29.17	69.32	44.15	23.20	12.19	6.31
KC	2-0	0.531	41.63	70.18	43.16	22.23	11.38	5.85
PIT	2-0	0.530	36.40	67.93	41.48	21.27	10.89	5.58
BUF	2-0	0.523	57.17	71.05	41.91	21.20	10.66	5.40
SEA	2-0	0.526	26.34	65.59	40.34	20.60	10.53	5.32
CHI	2-0	0.519	40.35	69.42	42.04	21.24	10.67	5.31
LV	2-0	0.521	37.36	64.04	37.92	19.09	9.56	4.82
TEN	2-0	0.510	45.10	65.94	38.24	18.79	9.19	4.53
SF	1-1	0.529	11.95	44.45	25.70	13.17	6.77	3.44
IND	1-1	0.522	25.35	45.92	25.55	12.83	6.43	3.24
NO	1-1	0.502	38.07	50.65	27.16	13.20	6.38	3.07
NE	1-1	0.510	29.84	47.58	25.72	12.59	6.16	3.04
TB	1-1	0.505	33.65	47.77	25.71	12.59	6.14	2.98
JAC	1-1	0.507	22.75	44.23	23.71	11.53	5.61	2.75
DAL	1-1	0.497	37.45	47.93	24.94	11.95	5.71	2.72
WAS	1-1	0.489	36.76	46.30	23.55	11.11	5.22	2.45
LAC	1-1	0.500	14.04	39.24	20.68	9.90	4.74	2.29
CLE	1-1	0.459	8.39	28.26	13.45	5.88	2.58	1.14
ATL	0-2	0.482	16.47	22.70	10.93	5.08	2.35	1.08
CAR	0-2	0.471	11.81	20.12	9.66	4.39	1.99	0.90
NYG	0-2	0.466	15.17	21.22	9.92	4.45	1.99	0.89
DEN	0-2	0.483	6.97	17.51	8.48	3.92	1.81	0.84
CIN	0-2	0.484	5.50	17.12	8.37	3.88	1.80	0.84
MIA	0-2	0.474	6.75	16.06	7.60	3.43	1.56	0.71
MIN	0-2	0.462	4.81	16.47	7.83	3.48	1.55	0.69
PHI	0-2	0.456	10.62	16.20	7.39	3.24	1.41	0.62
DET	0-2	0.463	3.65	14.71	6.96	3.09	1.38	0.61
NYJ	0-2	0.452	6.24	14.07	6.35	2.73	1.18	0.51
HOU	0-2	0.454	6.79	13.65	6.15	2.66	1.15	0.50

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Sunday] Baltimore over Green Bay

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Baltimore over Green Bay

Washington lost to fall out of the driver's seat in the NFC, and Green Bay stepped forward to take their place. Baltimore continued their early season dominance, and retains the AFC #1 spot and the overall favorite spot. We've also got 11 0-2 teams, all of which are now less than 1% likely to win the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	2-0	0.559	49.67	77.77	51.90	28.54	15.63	8.46
GB	2-0	0.537	51.18	74.55	46.89	24.61	12.82	6.63
ARI	2-0	0.536	32.55	71.46	45.33	23.68	12.36	6.39
LAR	2-0	0.538	29.21	68.77	43.47	22.79	11.94	6.19
KC	2-0	0.531	47.15	71.66	44.42	22.95	11.78	6.04
PIT	2-0	0.530	36.36	68.55	42.12	21.66	11.12	5.69
BUF	2-0	0.523	57.16	71.70	42.66	21.65	10.91	5.52
SEA	2-0	0.526	26.37	65.06	39.72	20.24	10.32	5.23
CHI	2-0	0.519	40.35	68.66	41.21	20.76	10.41	5.19
TEN	2-0	0.510	45.02	66.52	38.85	19.16	9.39	4.62
NO	1-0	0.517	48.76	62.34	35.79	17.95	8.94	4.45
LV	1-0	0.506	28.15	51.97	29.02	14.14	6.87	3.35
IND	1-1	0.522	25.50	46.91	26.26	13.22	6.65	3.35
SF	1-1	0.529	11.86	43.53	25.00	12.78	6.55	3.34
NE	1-1	0.510	29.84	48.46	26.37	12.95	6.35	3.12
TB	1-1	0.505	28.08	45.51	24.44	11.93	5.81	2.82
JAC	1-1	0.507	22.70	44.90	24.21	11.81	5.75	2.81
DAL	1-1	0.497	37.48	47.67	24.69	11.79	5.62	2.68
WAS	1-1	0.489	36.78	46.02	23.31	10.95	5.13	2.41
LAC	1-1	0.500	16.34	40.83	21.62	10.38	4.98	2.40
CLE	1-1	0.459	8.47	29.25	14.00	6.13	2.70	1.19
ATL	0-2	0.482	13.57	20.74	9.98	4.63	2.14	0.99
DEN	0-2	0.483	8.37	18.66	9.08	4.20	1.95	0.90
NYG	0-2	0.466	15.20	21.06	9.81	4.38	1.96	0.87
CIN	0-2	0.484	5.49	17.61	8.65	4.02	1.87	0.87
CAR	0-2	0.471	9.59	18.48	8.87	4.02	1.82	0.82
MIA	0-2	0.474	6.75	16.62	7.90	3.59	1.63	0.74
MIN	0-2	0.462	4.82	16.03	7.58	3.36	1.49	0.66
PHI	0-2	0.456	10.54	15.85	7.20	3.14	1.37	0.60
DET	0-2	0.463	3.66	14.28	6.72	2.98	1.32	0.59
NYJ	0-2	0.452	6.25	14.57	6.61	2.85	1.23	0.54
HOU	0-2	0.454	6.78	14.01	6.35	2.75	1.19	0.52

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Washington

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

We added 10 teams to the rankings this week, up to 52. One more FCS team took the field for the first time, Abilene Christian, so there are a total of 61 teams that have played. We have a lot fewer ties this week, although still a fair number outside the top 10. We've also got a new #1, Miami. I have a feeling with so few games it's going to take longer for things to settle than usual. After just 3 weeks there are only 2 teams with 3 games played, UTEP and Texas State.

Speaking of Texas State, congrats to them for pulling themselves out of last place with a win. Taking over at the bottom is Southern Mississippi, they of the perfect 0-12 2012 season, and the alma mater of Austin Davis, who I was sure could turn the Rams around if they'd just give him a chance.

1	Miami	2-0
2	SMU	2-0
3	Marshall	2-0
4	UTSA	2-0
5	Notre Dame	2-0
6	Louisiana	2-0
7	Coastal Carolina	2-0
8	UTEP	2-1
9	Clemson	2-0
10	Army	2-0
11	Pittsburgh	2-0
12	Texas	1-0
13	BYU	1-0
T-14	Memphis	1-0
T-14	UCF	1-0
16	UAB	1-1
17	Navy	1-1
T-18	Oklahoma	1-0
T-18	Oklahoma State	1-0
20	West Virginia	1-0
T-21	Boston College	1-0
T-21	Appalachian State	1-1
23	Georgia Southern	1-0
24	NC State	1-0
25	Troy	1-0
26	North Carolina	1-0
27	Tulane	1-1
28	South Florida	1-1
T-29	Liberty	1-0
T-29	Louisville	1-1
31	Texas Tech	1-0
32	Texas State	1-2
T-33	North Texas	1-1
T-33	Louisiana Tech	1-0
35	Cincinnati	1-0
T-36	Arkansas State	1-1
T-36	Georgia Tech	1-1
38	South Alabama	1-1
T-39	Iowa State	0-1
T-39	Georgia State	0-1
41	Kansas	0-1
42	Tulsa	0-1
43	Charlotte	0-1
44	Duke	0-2
45	Wake Forest	0-2
46	Middle Tennessee	0-2
T-47	Syracuse	0-2
T-47	Kansas State	0-1
T-47	Florida State	0-1
50	UL Monroe	0-2
51	Western Kentucky	0-2
52	Southern Mississippi	0-2

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB
Week 2 Army

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Washington

This is usually my least favorite day of projections, because there's only 2 teams that have played 2 games, and there's usually a 2-0 team that appears to be running away with things. This year, instead, we get an 0-2 and a 1-1 team. Cleveland pulled themselves up from the least likely to win this year...by 2 spots. Taking over at the bottom is Cincinnati, but take that with a grain of salt at least until week 2 is over for everyone.

So far I haven't detected any glitches with my new 14-playoff-team software, but I once wrote something for work that, as it turns out, crashed if it was left running without a restart for about 6 months, something that didn't happen until it had been live for about 8 years. So you know...I'm a little cautious to declare anything bug-free, ever.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	41.95	63.14	38.91	20.42	10.70	5.64
WAS	1-0	0.519	47.74	63.93	38.88	20.10	10.38	5.29
NO	1-0	0.517	46.78	62.93	37.93	19.51	10.02	5.08
NE	1-0	0.524	39.70	60.16	36.18	18.69	9.63	5.00
SEA	1-0	0.518	31.02	59.22	36.11	18.62	9.59	4.87
KC	1-0	0.521	31.19	57.29	34.48	17.71	9.07	4.69
BUF	1-0	0.519	37.77	58.43	34.70	17.74	9.05	4.66
PIT	1-0	0.520	36.65	57.76	34.44	17.63	9.01	4.65
GB	1-0	0.511	37.27	59.40	35.44	18.00	9.13	4.57
JAC	1-0	0.513	38.92	58.74	34.60	17.46	8.80	4.48
CHI	1-0	0.507	35.90	58.41	34.61	17.46	8.80	4.38
ARI	1-0	0.508	29.90	56.75	33.74	17.06	8.62	4.30
LAR	1-0	0.508	28.36	55.89	33.19	16.74	8.44	4.20
LAC	1-0	0.510	27.81	53.55	31.26	15.66	7.83	3.96
TEN	1-0	0.506	33.60	55.02	31.85	15.83	7.85	3.94
LV	1-0	0.506	27.99	51.88	29.89	14.85	7.37	3.70
CAR	0-1	0.494	19.94	35.34	19.13	9.37	4.59	2.22
DAL	0-1	0.492	20.09	34.17	18.17	8.86	4.32	2.09
DET	0-1	0.493	13.63	31.43	16.87	8.24	4.02	1.94
SF	0-1	0.492	10.71	29.89	16.06	7.82	3.81	1.84
MIN	0-1	0.489	13.20	30.62	16.28	7.89	3.82	1.83
NYG	0-1	0.480	17.53	31.99	16.75	7.97	3.79	1.78
DEN	0-1	0.494	13.01	28.95	15.29	7.40	3.58	1.75
TB	0-1	0.483	15.29	30.20	15.78	7.55	3.61	1.71
ATL	0-1	0.482	17.99	30.43	15.74	7.52	3.59	1.70
PHI	0-1	0.481	14.64	29.41	15.32	7.29	3.47	1.64
IND	0-1	0.487	13.32	28.65	14.86	7.07	3.37	1.63
NYJ	0-1	0.481	11.79	26.59	13.58	6.39	3.01	1.43
HOU	0-1	0.479	14.16	26.74	13.58	6.36	2.98	1.42
CLE	1-1	0.460	12.82	29.61	14.52	6.51	2.92	1.33
MIA	0-1	0.476	10.73	24.62	12.44	5.79	2.70	1.28
CIN	0-2	0.484	8.58	18.86	9.44	4.48	2.13	1.02

[Week 1] Baltimore over Washington

Super Bowl LV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Washington

What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I'm running a little late for week 1 this year, because all of you out there forgot to remind me there are now 14 playoff teams. I think I successfully implemented this, but we'll see as time goes on. For now at least, the total chances of teams making the playoffs sum to 1400%, so I'll call it good. "WC" should perhaps be renamed, as it represents making it OUT of the wildcard round, to be one of the final 8 teams.

Baltimore is once again the AFC favorite, a position they seem to frequently hold each week 1. They certainly have at least for 3 years running now, and that would have extended to 2017 except the slightly weaker Jacksonville had an even worse looking division than Baltimore to compete against after week 1, giving them the edge.

No one fell below the dreaded 1% mark this year, with even lowly Cleveland at 1.12% likely to win the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	40.54	62.29	38.33	20.10	10.52	5.54
WAS	1-0	0.519	47.70	63.77	38.74	20.04	10.34	5.26
NO	1-0	0.517	46.75	62.95	37.94	19.51	10.02	5.07
NE	1-0	0.524	39.73	60.06	36.09	18.62	9.59	4.98
SEA	1-0	0.518	31.01	59.24	36.13	18.63	9.60	4.87
KC	1-0	0.521	31.21	57.16	34.38	17.64	9.03	4.67
BUF	1-0	0.519	37.79	58.32	34.59	17.67	9.01	4.64
GB	1-0	0.511	37.26	59.43	35.45	18.00	9.13	4.57
PIT	1-0	0.520	35.18	56.74	33.75	17.25	8.81	4.54
JAC	1-0	0.513	38.90	58.38	34.31	17.30	8.70	4.43
CHI	1-0	0.507	35.90	58.42	34.63	17.47	8.80	4.37
ARI	1-0	0.508	29.90	56.78	33.76	17.06	8.61	4.29
LAR	1-0	0.508	28.37	55.94	33.23	16.76	8.45	4.21
LAC	1-0	0.510	27.87	53.60	31.29	15.66	7.83	3.95
TEN	1-0	0.506	33.59	54.66	31.57	15.68	7.77	3.90
LV	1-0	0.506	27.89	51.49	29.63	14.71	7.29	3.66
CAR	0-1	0.494	19.95	35.38	19.16	9.38	4.59	2.22
DAL	0-1	0.492	20.10	34.05	18.09	8.83	4.31	2.08
DET	0-1	0.493	13.63	31.48	16.90	8.25	4.03	1.94
SF	0-1	0.492	10.73	29.95	16.10	7.85	3.83	1.84
MIN	0-1	0.489	13.21	30.68	16.32	7.91	3.84	1.84
NYG	0-1	0.480	17.55	31.89	16.70	7.94	3.78	1.78
DEN	0-1	0.494	13.04	28.90	15.25	7.38	3.57	1.75
CIN	0-1	0.490	14.89	29.57	15.41	7.40	3.55	1.73
TB	0-1	0.483	15.29	30.26	15.81	7.56	3.62	1.71
ATL	0-1	0.482	18.00	30.48	15.77	7.54	3.60	1.70
PHI	0-1	0.481	14.65	29.30	15.26	7.27	3.46	1.63
IND	0-1	0.487	13.34	28.38	14.70	6.99	3.32	1.60
NYJ	0-1	0.481	11.75	26.32	13.42	6.31	2.97	1.42
HOU	0-1	0.479	14.17	26.50	13.43	6.29	2.95	1.40
MIA	0-1	0.476	10.73	24.57	12.40	5.78	2.69	1.27
CLE	0-1	0.469	9.39	23.06	11.43	5.24	2.40	1.12

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

A few more teams have begun play, although with very little conference crossover, rankings won't be very meaningful this year. Still, I'll keep posting results just to see what happens. Army jumped to the top of the board this week with a 2-0 record. This is where the feedback loop eats itself, because Army beat the 2 best 0-1 teams, Middle Tennessee and Old Monroe, who are only the best 0-1 teams because they lost to the best team...Army. But it's a fun distraction early in the season. Let's see how many of my #1 teams end up unranked by the real polls by the end of the season.

1	Army	2-0
2	Miami	1-0
3	Memphis	1-0
3	Texas	1-0
3	Tulane	1-0
6	UAB	1-1
7	BYU	1-0
7	Clemson	1-0
7	Oklahoma	1-0
7	Notre Dame	1-0
7	North Carolina	1-0
7	Louisiana	1-0
7	Appalachian State	1-0
7	Georgia Tech	1-0
7	Georgia Southern	1-0
7	South Florida	1-0
7	Louisville	1-0
7	Coastal Carolina	1-0
19	South Alabama	1-1
19	Arkansas State	1-1
19	UTEP	1-1
22	Marshall	1-0
22	SMU	1-0
22	North Texas	1-0
22	West Virginia	1-0
22	UTSA	1-0
22	Texas Tech	1-0
28	Pittsburgh	1-0
29	Middle Tennessee	0-1
29	UL Monroe	0-1
31	Navy	0-1
31	Wake Forest	0-1
31	Duke	0-1
31	Syracuse	0-1
31	Iowa State	0-1
31	Charlotte	0-1
31	Florida State	0-1
31	Western Kentucky	0-1
31	Kansas	0-1
40	Southern Mississippi	0-1
40	Kansas State	0-1
42	Texas State	0-2

2020 History and #1s
Week 1 UAB

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

If you already know what this is, you can skip the italics. Otherwise, read what I've been copying/pasting/modifying each year to star the season:

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

While there are still the same 130 FBS teams this year as there were last year, that whole "you don't get a ranking until you play" thing is going to be very obvious this year. In addition to 4 FCS schools not listed, only 14 schools have played a game. There are a few more than that who currently plan to eventually play, but for now, UAB gets the #1 spot, basically for defeating a 1-1 team, while the other 1-0 teams beat 0-1 teams.

1	UAB	1-0
2	South Alabama	1-0
2	Marshall	1-0
2	Army	1-0
2	SMU	1-0
2	North Texas	1-0
2	Memphis	1-0
2	UTEP	1-0
2	BYU	1-0
10	Southern Mississippi	0-1
10	Middle Tennessee	0-1
10	Texas State	0-1
10	Arkansas State	0-1
10	Navy	0-1

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Final

I was always a really good student, but I think I needed that deadline in front of me to make sure I finished things. Here's the final rankings from last year's college football season. I sort of stopped one game short and neglected to ever post the final. As expected, the winner became my #1 team, so there's no big drama there. In fact, no teams moved, LSU just became a stronger #1 as the internal numbers go. 

So that's that for 2019. I'll post 2020 after the first "week" ends on Labor Day. Obviously it will be a little different this year, but I'll enter the games that do get played into my algorithm and see what comes out.

1	LSU	15-0
2	Clemson	14-1
3	Ohio State	13-1
4	Oregon	12-2
5	Appalachian State	13-1
6	Georgia	12-2
7	Memphis	12-2
8	Oklahoma	12-2
9	Boise State	12-2
10	Florida	11-2
11	Penn State	11-2
12	Notre Dame	11-2
13	Utah	11-3
14	Navy	11-2
15	Cincinnati	11-3
16	Baylor	11-3
17	Minnesota	11-2
18	Alabama	11-2
19	Air Force	11-2
20	Florida Atlantic	11-3
21	Louisiana	11-3
22	Wisconsin	10-4
23	Iowa	10-3
24	UCF	10-3
25	SMU	10-3
26	Hawai'i	10-5
27	San Diego State	10-3
28	Auburn	9-4
29	Michigan	9-4
30	Virginia	9-5
31	Louisiana Tech	10-3
32	Western Kentucky	9-4
33	Louisville	8-5
34	Washington	8-5
35	USC	8-5
36	Tennessee	8-5
37	Texas	8-5
38	Arizona State	8-5
39	Kansas State	8-5
40	Pittsburgh	8-5
41	Oklahoma State	8-5
42	Kentucky	8-5
43	Marshall	8-5
44	Wake Forest	8-5
45	California	8-5
46	Texas A&M	8-5
47	Miami (OH)	8-6
48	Buffalo	8-5
49	Virginia Tech	8-5
50	UAB	9-5
51	Arkansas State	8-5
52	Wyoming	8-5
53	Temple	8-5
54	Iowa State	7-6
55	Central Michigan	8-6
56	BYU	7-6
57	Utah State	7-6
58	North Carolina	7-6
59	Indiana	8-5
60	Michigan State	7-6
61	Kent State	7-6
62	Western Michigan	7-6
63	Georgia Southern	7-6
64	Liberty	8-5
65	Tulane	7-6
66	Southern Mississippi	7-6
67	Georgia State	7-6
68	Nevada	7-6
69	Ohio	7-6
70	Mississippi State	6-7
71	Florida State	6-7
72	Miami	6-7
73	Charlotte	7-6
74	Boston College	6-7
75	Missouri	6-6
76	Eastern Michigan	6-7
77	Toledo	6-6
78	Washington State	6-7
79	Duke	5-7
80	West Virginia	5-7
81	Florida International	6-7
82	Oregon State	5-7
83	Illinois	6-7
84	TCU	5-7
85	Colorado	5-7
86	Syracuse	5-7
87	UL Monroe	5-7
88	Ball State	5-7
89	South Carolina	4-8
90	Northern Illinois	5-7
91	Nebraska	5-7
92	Troy	5-7
93	Tulsa	4-8
94	UCLA	4-8
95	Coastal Carolina	5-7
96	South Florida	4-8
97	San Jose State	5-7
98	Army	5-8
99	Houston	4-8
100	Stanford	4-8
101	Fresno State	4-8
102	Arizona	4-8
103	Ole Miss	4-8
104	Texas Tech	4-8
105	Purdue	4-8
106	NC State	4-8
107	Middle Tennessee	4-8
108	UNLV	4-8
109	Colorado State	4-8
110	East Carolina	4-8
111	North Texas	4-8
112	UTSA	4-8
113	Georgia Tech	3-9
114	Texas State	3-9
115	Kansas	3-9
116	Bowling Green	3-9
117	Maryland	3-9
118	Vanderbilt	3-9
119	Northwestern	3-9
120	Rice	3-9
121	Rutgers	2-10
T-122	New Mexico	2-10
T-122	Arkansas	2-10
124	South Alabama	2-10
125	UConn	2-10
126	New Mexico State	2-10
127	Old Dominion	1-11
128	UTEP	1-11
129	UMass	1-11
130	Akron	0-12

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn
Week 5 Auburn
Week 6 Ohio State
Week 7 Ohio State
Week 8 Ohio State
Week 9 Ohio State
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Ohio State
Week 15 Ohio State
Week 16 Ohio State
Week 17 Ohio State
Week 18 Clemson
Week 19 LSU

Week 20 LSU