Wildcard Round
HOU 0-0 NYY
CHI 0-0 PIT
| Team | Strength | LDS | LCS | WS | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0.6287 | 100.00 | 71.35 | 46.71 | 29.52 |
| STL | 0.5954 | 100.00 | 55.84 | 33.37 | 17.30 |
| HOU | 0.5757 | 53.45 | 28.73 | 13.07 | 6.72 |
| PIT | 0.5718 | 51.45 | 23.40 | 12.77 | 5.96 |
| CHI | 0.5575 | 48.55 | 20.77 | 10.67 | 4.66 |
| KC | 0.5560 | 100.00 | 49.26 | 20.38 | 9.59 |
| LAD | 0.5526 | 100.00 | 50.53 | 21.97 | 9.36 |
| NYM | 0.5498 | 100.00 | 49.47 | 21.21 | 8.91 |
| NYY | 0.5416 | 46.55 | 22.01 | 8.46 | 3.72 |
| TEX | 0.5112 | 100.00 | 28.65 | 11.38 | 4.27 |
Last year I noticed the team strengths - calculated from runs scored, runs allowed, and adjusted for the total runs in all games this season - were more closely packed together than 2013. This year, 9 of the playoff teams seem about the same as last year, with Toronto quite the outlier at the top. Unless I did something wrong, the runs per team have gone up even above 2013 levels, to over 688.
As always, these projections are way less accurate in a shorter series, because they reflect an average version of each team over the year, including games started by the #1 and #5 starters. Even in a 7 game series it's likely that only the top 3-4 starters see action, and in half of the LDS openers, the wildcard winner will be throwing their #2 against the division winner's #1. So, caveats galore!
The first Wildcard game up is Houston at New York, and I think I'll be rooting for Houston, so I can finally solidify in my brain that they are an American League team. I still think of them as being in the NL. I eventually got over that with Milwaukee coming to the NL, and the Seattle Seahawks moving to the NFC, although in those cases both teams came to my home team's division. Now I just don't see as much of Houston as I used to. So, for my own sanity, Go Houston.
As always, these projections are way less accurate in a shorter series, because they reflect an average version of each team over the year, including games started by the #1 and #5 starters. Even in a 7 game series it's likely that only the top 3-4 starters see action, and in half of the LDS openers, the wildcard winner will be throwing their #2 against the division winner's #1. So, caveats galore!
The first Wildcard game up is Houston at New York, and I think I'll be rooting for Houston, so I can finally solidify in my brain that they are an American League team. I still think of them as being in the NL. I eventually got over that with Milwaukee coming to the NL, and the Seattle Seahawks moving to the NFC, although in those cases both teams came to my home team's division. Now I just don't see as much of Houston as I used to. So, for my own sanity, Go Houston.
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