Division Series
TEX 2-0 TOR
HOU 1-1 KC
NYM 1-1 LAD
CHI 1-1 STL
Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT
| Team | Strength | LCS | WS | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0.6287 | 23.63 | 15.08 | 9.59 |
| STL | 0.5954 | 55.79 | 33.35 | 19.21 |
| HOU | 0.5757 | 53.01 | 30.65 | 15.89 |
| CHI | 0.5575 | 44.21 | 22.72 | 11.23 |
| KC | 0.5560 | 46.99 | 25.22 | 11.97 |
| LAD | 0.5526 | 50.42 | 22.30 | 10.78 |
| NYM | 0.5498 | 49.58 | 21.63 | 10.32 |
| TEX | 0.5112 | 76.37 | 29.05 | 11.01 |
Both NLDSs are now 1-1, but the projection didn't change, it just became much less certain. St. Louis is still the most likely team to come out of the NL, and of course there was no movement for the AL. We could see an early and unexpected elimination of Toronto tonight, but Kansas City and Houston will have to play at least Monday to finish out their series.
Yesterday a commenter mentioned that Elias Sports Bureau had some very different numbers. I couldn't figure out where to find those numbers, but he gave examples. I'll reiterate this is a very simple, very averaged model. For example, I don't give St. Louis any better or worse chances when it's Lackey or Garcia pitching (not to pick on Garcia). I also don't bump their odds either way if they are facing a lefty and loading the lineup with right handers, for example. I just account for the average regular season performance of both teams. That's not to say this is necessarily the right model, just that it's a fun and simple toy for me to play with.
Yesterday a commenter mentioned that Elias Sports Bureau had some very different numbers. I couldn't figure out where to find those numbers, but he gave examples. I'll reiterate this is a very simple, very averaged model. For example, I don't give St. Louis any better or worse chances when it's Lackey or Garcia pitching (not to pick on Garcia). I also don't bump their odds either way if they are facing a lefty and loading the lineup with right handers, for example. I just account for the average regular season performance of both teams. That's not to say this is necessarily the right model, just that it's a fun and simple toy for me to play with.
No comments:
Post a Comment