2015-10-24

2015 World Series Projection, October 23

Kansas City over New York

World Series
NYM 0-0 KC

League Championship Series
KC 4-2 TOR
CHI 0-4 NYM

Division Series
TEX 2-3 TOR
HOU 2-3 KC
NYM 3-2 LAD
CHI 3-1 STL

Wildcard Round
HOU 1-0 NYY
CHI 1-0 PIT

TeamStrengthWin
KC0.556051.38
NYM0.549848.62

The World Series matchup is all set. These were definitely not the most likely teams at the start of the postseason. Both had 20% chances at the start, which is right about 1 out of 5, which is what you'd expect by randomly selecting one of the 5 playoff teams from each league. But since they were division winners, and the playoff is a bracket, not round-robin, with random chance they'd have actually been 25% likely to make the World Series. So this year, I'm worse than the proverbial monkey with a dart board at picking the league champions, and the same will be true of the World Series champion, since I had both of these teams below 10%. This is why I'm not a gambling tycoon.

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