2013 World Series Projection, October 6

St. Louis over Boston

Division Series
TB 0-2 BOS
DET 1-1 OAK
PIT 1-1 STL
LAD 1-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	62.10	36.85	19.62
BOS	0.6184	92.84	49.91	27.87
DET	0.6100	52.67	26.01	14.03
ATL	0.6030	58.11	30.30	14.76
OAK	0.5930	47.33	21.55	10.81
LAD	0.5499	41.89	17.02	6.31
PIT	0.5432	37.90	15.82	5.65
TB	0.5350	7.16	2.53	0.96

Here's where the method of the projection at the top of the post starts to look a little odd. Boston is by far the World Series favorite now, with almost a 28% chance of winning it. However, they'll have to play an NL team. That team is most likely to be St. Louis, which would be projected to beat Boston. If I were only picking the World Series winner, today I would pick Boston. But the most likely Winner-Loser combination would have to have St. Louis winning. The simple explanation for this is Boston is much closer to securing a spot in the next round, and is better than any other NL team. So in 63% of cases, when St. Louis doesn't make the World Series, Boston would be favored.

Now that I've gone through the trouble of typing that out, the World Series is slightly more likely to be Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh simply to spite me.