2013-10-14

2013 World Series Projection, October 14

St. Louis over Boston

League Championship Series
DET 1-1 BOS
LAD 0-2 STL

Division Series
TB 1-3 BOS
DET 3-2 OAK
PIT 2-3 STL
LAD 3-1 ATL

Wildcard Round
TB 1-0 CLE
CIN 0-1 PIT

TeamStrengthWSWin
STL0.622889.2146.36
LAD0.549910.793.87
BOS0.618451.6526.19
DET0.610048.3523.59

Boston is the ALCS favorite again, after tying the series in dramatic fashion last night. From a numbers standpoint, a 7 game series tied at 1-1 is equivalent to a 5-game series, since I don't take location into account. This means Boston's chances are slightly worse than they were at the beginning of the series, down from 51.92% to 51.65%, since the longer a series goes, the better chances the stronger team has. Tonight St. Louis could take an overwhelming 3-0 lead, which is almost insurmountable based on history, though famously was overcome by Boston against the New York in 2004 on their way to a World Series win over St. Louis

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