2021 World Series Projection, October 5

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-0 BOS
STL 0-0 LAD

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	65.58	37.90	26.86	17.45
SF	0.6387	100.00	52.17	32.67	18.38
TB	0.6266	100.00	66.47	34.95	17.59
HOU	0.6249	100.00	54.12	30.30	15.13
CWS	0.6041	100.00	45.88	23.54	10.66
ATL	0.5866	100.00	51.45	19.32	8.58
MIL	0.5791	100.00	48.55	17.48	7.47
BOS	0.5476	51.91	18.22	6.40	2.15
NYY	0.5286	48.09	15.32	4.81	1.44
STL	0.5232	34.42	9.93	3.68	1.15

After taking 2020 off, I've decided to bring back my MLB playoff projections. It helps that they've gone back to a familiar format, because this software sure is brittle. I still dream of a single codebase that handles MLB, NFL, NHL, and maybe even NBA, but I'm not there yet. I've listed the teams by their strength, which is really just a measure of runs scored vs runs allowed for the full regular season. Runs are, after all, the way you win a baseball game. Despite being the strongest team, LA is stuck in the wildcard game, thanks to a worse record than San Francisco. If they advance, they'll be favored in that series, but for now, San Francisco is the most likely NL Champion. In the AL, Tampa is the #1 seed and the strongest team, so they've got the clearest shot of any team at the moment, nearly 35% likely to advance to the World Series.

The first game to be played will be the AL Wildcard game, hosted by Boston due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. I don't tend to root for either of these teams, so I'll go with my favorite tiebreaker, former Cardinals. It appears the only one on either active roster is Adam Ottavino, so I'll be rooting for Boston. Luke Voit is another player I like, but he's injured and apparently out for the playoffs.