Tenets of Wilson: 2021-10

2021-10-31

2021 World Series Projection, October 31

Atlanta over Houston

World Series
ATL 3-1 HOU

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6249	15.75
ATL	0.5866	84.25

Now up 3-1, Atlanta wins about 17 times in 20. Houston will have to win 3 in a row to pull off a win.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 24: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 27: Atlanta over Houston
Oct 28: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 30: Atlanta over Houston

2021-10-30

2021 World Series Projection, October 30

Atlanta over Houston

World Series
ATL 2-1 HOU

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6249	37.49
ATL	0.5866	62.51

Up 2-1, Atlanta is just about 5/8 likely to be World Series champs.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 24: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 27: Atlanta over Houston
Oct 28: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-29

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 8, Thursday

Arizona over Buffalo

Green Bay beat Arizona on Thursday night, but it was a close game, so Arizona's overall strength number didn't suffer much. Green Bay's also didn't increase by much, so despite identical 7-1 records, Green Bay is only about half as likely to make it to the Super Bowl as Arizona out of the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	7-1	0.665	72.0	99.2	75.1	45.1	26.6	15.8
BUF	4-2	0.641	82.4	91.9	63.3	38.0	22.5	12.1
TB	6-1	0.624	76.7	97.1	64.0	34.9	18.3	10.1
CIN	5-2	0.609	58.8	90.0	63.9	36.0	19.7	9.9
LAR	6-1	0.600	27.6	96.9	58.7	29.8	14.9	7.8
DAL	5-1	0.583	94.4	96.2	53.5	26.1	12.5	6.4
TEN	5-2	0.550	84.5	92.0	55.7	27.1	12.9	5.7
GB	7-1	0.549	87.7	97.6	56.6	25.6	11.2	5.3
NO	4-2	0.581	20.1	76.6	39.4	18.7	9.0	4.6
BAL	5-2	0.540	26.4	79.9	44.3	20.9	9.8	4.3
LV	5-2	0.525	46.8	75.7	41.7	19.1	8.6	3.6
NE	3-4	0.573	17.3	48.1	25.8	13.1	6.7	3.1
LAC	4-2	0.496	35.1	62.4	30.7	13.0	5.5	2.2
IND	3-4	0.539	14.5	37.4	18.5	8.6	4.1	1.8
CLE	4-3	0.515	10.9	44.5	21.5	9.5	4.2	1.7
MIN	3-3	0.519	11.5	53.4	22.9	9.3	3.9	1.7
DEN	3-4	0.530	12.0	29.2	14.2	6.5	3.0	1.3
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.0	28.3	12.1	4.8	1.9	0.7
CAR	3-4	0.500	2.1	16.7	6.7	2.6	1.1	0.5
KC	3-4	0.476	6.1	16.8	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.4
SF	2-4	0.474	0.2	13.7	5.2	1.9	0.7	0.3
PHI	2-5	0.454	2.8	11.5	4.1	1.4	0.5	0.2
ATL	3-3	0.433	1.1	14.2	4.8	1.6	0.5	0.2
SEA	2-5	0.476	0.2	8.9	3.4	1.2	0.5	0.2
NYG	2-5	0.423	1.3	6.1	2.0	0.6	0.2	0.1
CHI	3-4	0.374	0.8	7.7	2.2	0.6	0.2	0.1
WAS	2-5	0.397	1.4	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAC	1-5	0.406	0.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-6	0.371	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	1-5	0.354	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-6	0.334	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-7	0.379	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 6, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 7, Sunday] Arizona over Buffalo
[Week 7, Final] Arizona over Buffalo

2021-10-28

2021 World Series Projection, October 28

Houston over Atlanta

World Series
ATL 1-1 HOU

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6249	57.48
ATL	0.5866	42.52

With the series tied at 1, Houston is back to being favored, but by a little less than they were before the series. That's because the longer the series, the more likely the stronger team is to reach the required number of wins first. Shorter series are therefore more chaotic, and closer to a tossup.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 24: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 27: Atlanta over Houston

2021-10-27

2021 World Series Projection, October 27

Atlanta over Houston

World Series
ATL 1-0 HOU

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6249	42.16
ATL	0.5866	57.84

Atlanta wins game 1, and with these two teams being close to evenly matched, the series leader will always be favored to win, with Houston favored in case of a tie.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 24: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-26

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 7, Final

Arizona over Buffalo

With New Orleans and Seattle a combined 5-6, their game didn't move the needle for any of the top teams.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	7-0	0.659	78.5	99.6	81.5	49.0	28.4	16.7
BUF	4-2	0.641	82.4	91.9	63.3	38.0	22.5	12.1
TB	6-1	0.624	76.7	97.1	63.6	34.8	18.2	10.0
CIN	5-2	0.609	58.7	90.0	63.9	36.0	19.6	9.9
LAR	6-1	0.600	21.3	97.0	58.5	29.5	14.7	7.8
DAL	5-1	0.583	94.5	96.2	53.8	26.4	12.6	6.4
TEN	5-2	0.550	84.4	92.0	55.7	27.1	12.9	5.7
NO	4-2	0.581	20.1	77.0	39.9	18.9	9.0	4.6
GB	6-1	0.543	81.1	93.7	48.5	21.4	9.3	4.4
BAL	5-2	0.540	26.5	80.0	44.3	21.0	9.8	4.3
LV	5-2	0.525	46.8	75.6	41.7	19.0	8.6	3.6
NE	3-4	0.573	17.3	48.1	25.8	13.1	6.7	3.1
LAC	4-2	0.496	35.0	62.4	30.7	13.0	5.5	2.2
IND	3-4	0.539	14.5	37.5	18.5	8.7	4.1	1.8
MIN	3-3	0.519	17.4	54.3	23.5	9.5	3.9	1.8
CLE	4-3	0.515	10.9	44.5	21.5	9.6	4.2	1.7
DEN	3-4	0.530	12.0	29.2	14.2	6.5	3.0	1.3
PIT	3-3	0.468	3.9	28.2	12.1	4.8	1.9	0.7
CAR	3-4	0.500	2.2	17.1	7.0	2.7	1.1	0.5
KC	3-4	0.476	6.1	16.8	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.4
SF	2-4	0.474	0.1	13.9	5.3	1.9	0.7	0.3
SEA	2-5	0.476	0.1	9.4	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
PHI	2-5	0.454	2.8	11.8	4.2	1.4	0.5	0.2
ATL	3-3	0.433	1.1	14.3	4.9	1.6	0.5	0.2
NYG	2-5	0.423	1.3	6.2	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1
CHI	3-4	0.374	1.5	8.1	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.1
WAS	2-5	0.397	1.4	4.1	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAC	1-5	0.406	0.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-6	0.371	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	1-5	0.354	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-6	0.334	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-7	0.379	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-10-25

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 7, Sunday

Arizona over Buffalo

Arizona has pushed their strength up above Buffalo's with a 31-5 victory, and is now the Super Bowl favorite. 31-5 sounds like a very odd score, and in fact that was the first NFL game to ever finish with that score, according to nflscorigami.com. On the other end of the table, Detroit has fallen to 0-7, although the aforementioned Houston is the weakest team as determined by scoring.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	7-0	0.659	78.3	99.6	81.6	49.4	28.7	16.9
BUF	4-2	0.641	82.5	92.0	63.4	38.1	22.5	12.2
TB	6-1	0.624	81.1	97.2	64.4	35.5	18.6	10.2
CIN	5-2	0.609	58.7	90.0	63.9	35.9	19.6	9.9
LAR	6-1	0.600	21.3	97.0	58.7	29.8	14.9	7.9
DAL	5-1	0.583	94.5	96.3	54.6	26.9	12.8	6.6
TEN	5-2	0.550	84.6	92.1	55.8	27.2	12.9	5.7
GB	6-1	0.543	81.0	93.6	49.2	21.7	9.4	4.4
BAL	5-2	0.540	26.5	80.0	44.3	21.0	9.8	4.3
LV	5-2	0.525	46.8	75.6	41.7	19.0	8.5	3.6
NO	3-2	0.568	15.1	64.9	32.3	14.8	6.9	3.4
NE	3-4	0.573	17.1	48.1	25.8	13.1	6.6	3.1
LAC	4-2	0.496	35.0	62.4	30.6	13.0	5.5	2.2
MIN	3-3	0.519	17.4	54.9	23.9	9.7	4.0	1.8
IND	3-4	0.539	14.4	37.5	18.5	8.7	4.1	1.8
CLE	4-3	0.515	10.9	44.5	21.5	9.5	4.2	1.7
DEN	3-4	0.530	12.0	29.2	14.1	6.5	3.0	1.3
PIT	3-3	0.468	3.9	28.2	12.1	4.8	1.9	0.7
CAR	3-4	0.500	2.5	17.7	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
KC	3-4	0.476	6.1	16.8	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.4
SEA	2-4	0.483	0.3	18.4	7.2	2.7	1.0	0.4
SF	2-4	0.474	0.1	14.2	5.4	1.9	0.7	0.3
PHI	2-5	0.454	2.8	12.3	4.4	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	3-3	0.433	1.2	14.8	5.1	1.6	0.6	0.2
NYG	2-5	0.423	1.3	6.4	2.1	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	3-4	0.374	1.5	8.3	2.4	0.6	0.2	0.1
WAS	2-5	0.397	1.4	4.2	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAC	1-5	0.406	0.7	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-6	0.371	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	1-5	0.354	0.2	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
HOU	1-6	0.334	0.3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DET	0-7	0.379	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021-10-24

2021 World Series Projection, October 24

Houston over Atlanta

World Series
ATL 0-0 HOU

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-4 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	Win
HOU	0.6249	58.71
ATL	0.5866	41.29

Despite what the numbers said, it really didn't feel like anyone was actually going to beat LA. But Atlanta did it in 6 games, and will face Houston in the World Series. A Houston World Series appearance of course brings up the oddity of a team that has switched leagues, and the fact that they have a playoff history against Atlanta. They played each other in the NLDS more times than they didn't between 1997 and 2005, 5 out of the 9 seasons.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 23: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-23

2021 World Series Projection, October 23

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-4 HOU
LAD 2-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	35.48	22.07
HOU	0.6249	100.00	51.29
ATL	0.5866	64.52	26.64

With a 5-0 win, Houston is the first team into the World Series. I've had them favored to win the AL since October 9, once they were up 2-0 in the NLDS against Chicago and the slightly stronger Tampa Bay was tied with Boston 1-1.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 22: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-22

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 7, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Cleveland beat Denver on Thursday night, but a single game between two 3-3 teams isn't going to move the needle much, unless it's a blowout, so Buffalo remains on top of the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-2	0.641	90.8	95.0	68.2	42.2	25.6	14.5
ARI	6-0	0.624	74.2	98.2	77.6	45.0	25.5	14.3
BAL	5-1	0.580	55.2	92.1	65.3	35.5	18.5	9.4
DAL	5-1	0.584	91.7	94.9	58.0	30.5	15.5	8.1
LAR	5-1	0.584	24.4	92.2	56.9	29.5	15.1	7.9
TB	5-1	0.576	63.4	88.3	53.0	27.2	13.6	6.9
CIN	4-2	0.572	29.7	77.0	48.3	25.4	13.0	6.5
NO	3-2	0.569	21.7	61.3	32.9	16.2	8.0	4.0
TEN	4-2	0.508	78.7	84.3	45.0	20.2	8.9	3.9
GB	5-1	0.515	70.0	82.6	41.6	18.3	7.9	3.6
LV	4-2	0.506	32.5	64.8	34.1	15.3	6.7	2.9
LAC	4-2	0.496	39.1	67.1	34.1	14.9	6.4	2.7
CLE	4-3	0.515	11.4	50.1	25.3	11.5	5.2	2.3
CAR	3-3	0.544	13.5	40.9	20.1	9.3	4.4	2.1
MIN	3-3	0.519	22.4	46.5	21.7	9.5	4.2	1.9
KC	3-3	0.513	15.7	39.8	19.5	8.8	4.0	1.7
DEN	3-4	0.530	12.7	31.8	15.9	7.4	3.5	1.6
IND	2-4	0.516	17.6	32.7	15.8	7.2	3.3	1.4
NE	2-4	0.496	7.4	25.2	11.6	5.1	2.2	0.9
PIT	3-3	0.468	3.8	28.5	12.7	5.2	2.1	0.8
SF	2-3	0.496	0.8	22.3	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
PHI	2-4	0.472	5.0	17.7	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
SEA	2-4	0.483	0.6	15.5	6.6	2.6	1.1	0.5
CHI	3-3	0.440	7.6	20.6	7.9	2.8	1.0	0.4
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.5	8.7	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.2
WAS	2-4	0.422	2.8	8.3	3.0	1.0	0.4	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	1.3	4.4	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	1-5	0.406	1.8	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0
HOU	1-5	0.370	1.9	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.397	0.4	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-5	0.375	0.5	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
DET	0-6	0.394	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021 World Series Projection, October 22

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-3 HOU
LAD 2-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	35.48	23.01
HOU	0.6249	82.29	42.21
ATL	0.5866	64.52	28.62
BOS	0.5476	17.71	6.16

LA kept the series alive, but still trails 3-2 and has about a 1 in 3 chance of coming back all the way. The ALCS resumes today, with Boston in the same position as LA, but with only about a 1 in 6 chance.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 21: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-21

2021 World Series Projection, October 21

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-3 HOU
LAD 1-3 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	21.14	13.71
HOU	0.6249	82.29	44.68
ATL	0.5866	78.86	34.98
BOS	0.5476	17.71	6.63

Houston and Atlanta both won, so each team is 1 win from making the World Series.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston
Oct 20: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-20

2021 World Series Projection, October 20

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 2-2 HOU
LAD 1-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	46.77	31.77
HOU	0.6249	61.78	30.23
ATL	0.5866	53.23	25.50
BOS	0.5476	38.22	12.50

Houston tied the ALCS at 2 games each, and LA won their first NLCS game. LA was favored when they were down 1-0, but down 2-1, they are running out of time to catch up, so Atlanta is slightly favored to win.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta
Oct 19: Atlanta over Boston

2021-10-19

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

I didn't see a Buffalo loss coming, especially to Tennessee, a team with a strength barely better than .500. They're still in good position, though, with roughly the same chance to make the Super Bowl as Arizona in the NFC, and the highest chances of winning of any team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-2	0.642	90.8	94.9	68.2	42.1	25.5	14.5
ARI	6-0	0.624	74.2	98.2	77.6	45.0	25.5	14.3
BAL	5-1	0.580	57.2	92.1	65.5	35.6	18.6	9.4
DAL	5-1	0.584	91.8	94.9	57.9	30.5	15.5	8.0
LAR	5-1	0.584	24.4	92.2	56.9	29.5	15.1	7.9
TB	5-1	0.576	63.4	88.3	53.1	27.2	13.6	6.9
CIN	4-2	0.572	30.9	77.0	48.2	25.4	13.0	6.5
NO	3-2	0.569	21.7	61.3	32.9	16.2	8.0	4.0
TEN	4-2	0.508	78.7	84.3	45.0	20.2	8.9	3.9
GB	5-1	0.515	70.1	82.6	41.6	18.3	8.0	3.6
LV	4-2	0.506	30.5	64.8	34.0	15.2	6.7	2.9
LAC	4-2	0.496	36.3	66.9	33.8	14.7	6.4	2.7
DEN	3-3	0.536	18.7	46.4	24.0	11.4	5.4	2.5
CAR	3-3	0.544	13.5	41.0	20.1	9.3	4.4	2.1
MIN	3-3	0.519	22.3	46.5	21.7	9.5	4.2	1.9
KC	3-3	0.513	14.5	39.6	19.4	8.7	3.9	1.7
CLE	3-3	0.509	7.8	35.9	17.6	7.9	3.5	1.5
IND	2-4	0.516	17.6	32.7	15.8	7.1	3.2	1.4
NE	2-4	0.496	7.4	25.3	11.6	5.1	2.2	0.9
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.0	28.6	12.8	5.2	2.1	0.8
SF	2-3	0.496	0.8	22.3	9.8	4.0	1.7	0.7
PHI	2-4	0.472	5.0	17.6	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
SEA	2-4	0.483	0.6	15.5	6.6	2.6	1.1	0.5
CHI	3-3	0.440	7.5	20.6	7.9	2.8	1.0	0.4
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.5	8.7	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.2
WAS	2-4	0.422	2.8	8.3	3.0	1.0	0.4	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	1.3	4.4	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	1-5	0.406	1.8	2.9	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.0
HOU	1-5	0.370	1.9	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.397	0.4	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-5	0.375	0.5	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
DET	0-6	0.394	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021 World Series Projection, October 19

Atlanta over Boston

League Championship Series
BOS 2-1 HOU
LAD 0-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	32.95	23.26
HOU	0.6249	43.96	22.78
ATL	0.5866	67.05	34.19
BOS	0.5476	56.04	19.77

After remaining somewhat stable, the projection changes for the second time in 2 days, as Boston takes a 2-1 lead and is now favored to win the AL for the first time. They're the weakest team left, though, so they'll have to actually be leading the World Series before they'd be favored to be the champs.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 18: Houston over Atlanta

2021-10-18

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Arizona won again, and Buffalo doesn't play until Monday, so both held their ground on top of their conferences. Detroit is now the only winless team, and pretty soon I'm going to have to add some decimal places if I want to see what their chances are.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-1	0.633	93.2	96.8	74.0	45.3	27.0	15.1
ARI	6-0	0.624	74.1	98.2	77.6	45.0	25.5	14.3
BAL	5-1	0.580	57.2	92.2	64.3	35.1	18.3	9.2
DAL	5-1	0.584	91.7	94.9	57.9	30.5	15.5	8.1
LAR	5-1	0.584	24.4	92.2	56.9	29.5	15.1	7.9
TB	5-1	0.576	63.4	88.3	53.1	27.2	13.6	7.0
CIN	4-2	0.572	30.9	77.2	48.0	25.2	12.9	6.4
NO	3-2	0.569	21.7	61.5	33.0	16.2	8.0	4.1
GB	5-1	0.515	70.1	82.6	41.6	18.3	7.9	3.6
TEN	3-2	0.503	69.4	74.5	37.3	16.5	7.2	3.1
LV	4-2	0.506	30.5	65.1	34.0	15.2	6.7	2.9
LAC	4-2	0.496	36.3	67.1	33.8	14.7	6.4	2.7
DEN	3-3	0.536	18.7	46.7	24.2	11.4	5.4	2.5
CAR	3-3	0.544	13.5	41.1	20.1	9.3	4.4	2.1
MIN	3-3	0.519	22.3	46.4	21.6	9.4	4.2	1.9
KC	3-3	0.513	14.5	40.0	19.6	8.8	4.0	1.7
IND	2-4	0.516	24.8	36.5	17.7	8.0	3.6	1.6
CLE	3-3	0.509	7.8	36.2	17.7	7.9	3.6	1.5
NE	2-4	0.496	5.5	25.5	11.8	5.1	2.3	0.9
PIT	3-3	0.468	4.1	28.8	12.9	5.2	2.1	0.8
SF	2-3	0.496	0.8	22.3	9.7	4.0	1.7	0.7
PHI	2-4	0.472	5.0	17.6	7.2	2.8	1.1	0.5
SEA	2-4	0.483	0.6	15.5	6.6	2.6	1.1	0.5
CHI	3-3	0.440	7.5	20.5	7.8	2.8	1.0	0.4
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.5	8.7	3.2	1.1	0.4	0.2
WAS	2-4	0.422	2.8	8.3	3.0	1.0	0.4	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	0.9	4.4	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	1-5	0.406	3.0	3.9	1.4	0.5	0.2	0.1
HOU	1-5	0.370	2.9	3.4	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
NYG	1-5	0.397	0.4	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	1-5	0.375	0.4	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
DET	0-6	0.394	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

2021 World Series Projection, October 18

Houston over Atlanta

League Championship Series
BOS 1-1 HOU
LAD 0-2 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	32.95	22.24
HOU	0.6249	64.60	33.48
ATL	0.5866	67.05	31.80
BOS	0.5476	35.40	12.48

Atlanta has a 2-game lead in the NLCS, and has finally wrested the leader position of the NL away from the West Division. Atlanta has had a walk-off win in both games, so they'll have to do something a little different when the series moves to LA and they don't bat last.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 17: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-17

2021 World Series Projection, October 17

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 1-1 HOU
LAD 0-1 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	53.53	36.13
HOU	0.6249	64.60	30.70
ATL	0.5866	46.47	22.04
BOS	0.5476	35.40	11.13

Boston tied up the ALCS, and Atlanta struck first in the NLCS. Both of those teams are still not favored to win the series, more notably Atlanta, despite being up 1-0.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 16: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-16

2021 World Series Projection, October 16

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 0-1 HOU
LAD 0-0 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	70.18	45.85
HOU	0.6249	79.08	34.83
ATL	0.5866	29.82	13.39
BOS	0.5476	20.92	5.93

Houston won the first game of the ALCS, and the NLCS begins today. So far the projection has been pretty stable, and Houston will remain the AL favorite after game 2, by a large margin if the series moves to 2-0, and a bit smaller if Boston ties it up. LA starts off even higher than Houston did (70% vs 66% at the start of the LCS), and may also remain favored even down 0-1.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 15: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-15

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 6, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

I felt ready to write off Tampa Bay's chances to repeat after their loss to LA in Week 3, but they've now climbed up to be the #2 most likely team to make the Super Bowl in the NFC. Philadelphia's loss put them down to the 5th worst team in the NFC, although with 7 of 16 making the playoffs that's not totally out of reach for them yet, especially with 2 division rivals (Washington and New York) worse than them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-1	0.633	90.5	96.5	75.3	46.3	28.1	16.3
ARI	5-0	0.594	71.7	94.8	71.1	39.8	21.9	11.7
TB	5-1	0.576	58.3	87.0	55.5	29.7	15.5	8.0
DAL	4-1	0.575	85.0	89.8	55.3	29.5	15.4	8.0
LAC	4-1	0.544	53.2	84.2	52.6	26.6	12.9	6.3
LAR	4-1	0.542	23.3	80.2	46.6	22.7	11.0	5.3
BAL	4-1	0.533	44.4	79.9	47.6	23.3	11.0	5.2
DEN	3-2	0.562	29.1	66.0	38.2	19.7	10.0	5.0
NO	3-2	0.569	19.8	60.4	34.0	17.6	9.0	4.6
CLE	3-2	0.547	26.1	60.6	33.6	16.8	8.2	4.0
CAR	3-2	0.559	20.7	56.5	31.1	15.7	7.9	4.0
CIN	3-2	0.529	25.0	61.6	34.0	16.3	7.7	3.6
TEN	3-2	0.503	74.8	77.9	39.7	17.8	7.9	3.5
GB	4-1	0.496	57.1	69.2	34.6	15.1	6.6	2.9
LV	3-2	0.487	12.1	47.4	23.0	9.9	4.3	1.8
NE	2-3	0.509	7.9	35.8	17.6	8.0	3.7	1.7
MIN	2-3	0.508	19.1	32.5	15.5	6.9	3.1	1.4
CHI	3-2	0.462	23.5	37.1	16.2	6.5	2.6	1.1
KC	2-3	0.487	5.6	25.9	11.9	5.1	2.2	1.0
SF	2-3	0.496	2.1	23.1	10.6	4.6	2.0	0.9
SEA	2-3	0.489	2.8	23.1	10.5	4.5	2.0	0.8
PIT	2-3	0.462	4.5	21.3	9.4	3.8	1.6	0.6
IND	1-4	0.463	12.3	18.2	7.9	3.2	1.3	0.5
PHI	2-4	0.472	5.7	14.8	6.3	2.6	1.1	0.5
WAS	2-3	0.450	7.8	16.9	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4
HOU	1-4	0.411	10.4	12.4	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.2	7.8	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYG	1-4	0.437	1.6	5.5	2.2	0.8	0.3	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	0.8	4.6	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	1-4	0.387	0.7	4.5	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	0-5	0.407	2.5	3.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1
DET	0-5	0.430	0.4	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

2021 World Series Projection, October 15

Los Angeles over Houston

League Championship Series
BOS 0-0 HOU
LAD 0-0 ATL

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 3-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	70.18	47.13
HOU	0.6249	66.90	29.46
ATL	0.5866	29.82	14.02
BOS	0.5476	33.10	9.39

LA finished off San Francisco, on a bit of a controversial call to end the game. But, such things are usually forgotten when they happen in the early rounds of the playoffs. LA is favored to beat Houston, and both are overwhelming favorites to win their respective LCS.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 13: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-13

2021 World Series Projection, October 13

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-3 HOU
LAD 2-2 SF
ATL 3-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	54.18	38.02	25.53
SF	0.6387	45.82	28.34	16.64
HOU	0.6249	100.00	66.90	31.69
ATL	0.5866	100.00	33.64	15.82
BOS	0.5476	100.00	33.10	10.32

Atlanta and Houston ended their series and moved on, and Los Angeles tied San Francisco 2-2 with a deciding game 5 to come. Even though they haven't advanced yet, Los Angeles is slightly more likely to make the World Series than Atlanta, and retakes the league lead from San Francisco.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 12: San Francisco over Houston

2021-10-12

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

Indianapolis appeared to have the game locked up, but Baltimore came all the way back to tie it in regulation and win in overtime. Baltimore is now 4-1, but not quite as strong of a 4-1 as LA or Buffalo in the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-1	0.633	90.6	96.5	75.4	46.3	28.2	16.4
ARI	5-0	0.594	71.8	94.8	72.0	40.5	22.4	12.0
DAL	4-1	0.575	82.2	88.8	55.6	29.8	15.6	8.1
TB	4-1	0.565	49.9	78.4	47.5	24.8	12.7	6.5
LAC	4-1	0.544	53.2	84.1	52.5	26.5	12.8	6.3
LAR	4-1	0.542	23.3	80.1	46.9	23.0	11.2	5.4
BAL	4-1	0.533	44.4	79.9	47.6	23.3	11.0	5.3
DEN	3-2	0.562	29.1	65.9	38.1	19.6	9.9	5.0
NO	3-2	0.569	23.6	60.5	34.5	17.9	9.3	4.7
CAR	3-2	0.559	24.8	56.8	31.6	16.0	8.1	4.1
CLE	3-2	0.547	26.1	60.6	33.7	16.8	8.2	4.1
CIN	3-2	0.529	25.0	61.7	34.0	16.3	7.7	3.6
TEN	3-2	0.503	74.7	77.8	39.7	17.8	7.9	3.5
GB	4-1	0.496	57.0	69.1	35.0	15.4	6.7	3.0
LV	3-2	0.487	12.1	47.3	22.9	9.9	4.3	1.8
NE	2-3	0.509	7.9	35.9	17.7	8.0	3.7	1.7
MIN	2-3	0.508	19.0	32.5	15.6	7.0	3.2	1.4
CHI	3-2	0.462	23.6	37.2	16.4	6.6	2.7	1.1
KC	2-3	0.487	5.7	26.0	12.0	5.1	2.2	1.0
SF	2-3	0.496	2.1	23.3	10.8	4.7	2.1	0.9
PHI	2-3	0.483	9.0	24.5	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
SEA	2-3	0.489	2.8	23.0	10.6	4.6	2.0	0.9
PIT	2-3	0.462	4.5	21.3	9.4	3.8	1.6	0.6
IND	1-4	0.463	12.4	18.4	8.0	3.2	1.3	0.5
WAS	2-3	0.450	7.3	16.5	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4
HOU	1-4	0.411	10.4	12.4	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.7	7.9	3.1	1.2	0.4	0.2
NYG	1-4	0.437	1.5	5.4	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	0.8	4.7	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	1-4	0.387	0.7	4.5	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	0-5	0.407	2.5	3.2	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.1
DET	0-5	0.430	0.4	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0