NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

The easiest part of this used to be copying and pasting the game results into the text file that my ruby scripts and C++ program would then format and churn through, but not this week. ESPN renamed a ton of teams this week., especially in Division II and III, some of whom they also previously renamed this year. It's something small like changing "UNC Pembroke" to "North Carolina Pembroke", but my software has no idea those are the same team. Every now and then I'll catch one of those in a given week and just adjust all the previous weeks to the new name, but this time there were just too many. I just recopied all 4 weeks and reprocessed the whole thing. That's not so bad during week 5, but will get more cumbersome each week if it happens again.

Enough ranting, let's look at the new top of the rankings. Notre Dame is #1, after beating my previous #1, Stanford. That gives them a huge boost in strength of schedule. 7 of the 21 undefeated teams lost, bringing us to just 14. We're starting to see a little bit of separation and sorting not just on record, with 4-1 Stanford and 4-0 NC State ranked above 5-0 Cincinnati.

All 4 winless teams lost again, and UTEP remains #129. It's a little weird to see traditional powerhouses like UCLA and Nebraska down there, being propped up just a little by their stronger conference schedules.

1	Notre Dame	5-0
2	LSU	5-0
3	Clemson	5-0
4	Alabama	5-0
5	Georgia	5-0
6	Ohio State	5-0
7	Kentucky	5-0
8	Oklahoma	5-0
9	Stanford	4-1
10	NC State	4-0
11	Cincinnati	5-0
12	Hawai'i	5-1
13	Washington	4-1
14	South Florida	4-0
15	Texas	4-1
16	West Virginia	4-0
17	Oklahoma State	4-1
18	Syracuse	4-1
19	Washington State	4-1
20	Penn State	4-1
21	Indiana	4-1
22	Florida	4-1
23	Auburn	4-1
24	Duke	4-1
25	Troy	4-1
26	Michigan	4-1
27	North Texas	4-1
28	Miami	4-1
29	UCF	4-0
30	Boston College	4-1
31	Oregon	4-1
32	Buffalo	4-1
33	Army	3-2
34	BYU	3-2
35	Boise State	3-1
36	USC	3-2
37	San Diego State	3-1
38	California	3-1
39	Louisiana Tech	3-1
40	Colorado	4-0
41	Michigan State	3-1
42	Wake Forest	3-2
43	Coastal Carolina	3-2
44	Maryland	3-1
45	Texas Tech	3-2
46	Virginia	3-2
47	Vanderbilt	3-2
48	TCU	3-2
49	Georgia Southern	3-1
50	Wisconsin	3-1
51	Ole Miss	3-2
52	Virginia Tech	3-1
53	Missouri	3-1
54	Texas A&M	3-2
55	Arizona State	3-2
56	Baylor	3-2
57	Iowa	3-1
58	Mississippi State	3-2
59	Arkansas State	3-2
60	Minnesota	3-1
61	Florida State	3-2
62	Marshall	3-1
63	Fresno State	3-1
64	UAB	3-1
65	Appalachian State	3-1
66	Western Michigan	3-2
67	Florida Intl	3-2
68	Houston	3-1
69	Memphis	3-2
70	South Carolina	2-2
71	Utah State	3-1
72	Nevada	3-2
73	Utah	2-2
74	Tulane	2-3
75	Tennessee	2-3
76	Illinois	2-2
77	Georgia State	2-3
78	Temple	2-3
79	Georgia Tech	2-3
80	Middle Tennessee	2-2
81	Ohio	2-2
82	Navy	2-2
83	Kansas State	2-3
84	SMU	2-3
85	East Carolina	2-2
86	Wyoming	2-3
87	Toledo	2-2
88	Eastern Michigan	2-3
89	Pittsburgh	2-3
90	UL Monroe	2-3
91	Florida Atlantic	2-3
92	Louisville	2-3
93	Southern Mississippi	2-2
94	UNLV	2-2
95	Akron	2-1
96	New Mexico	2-2
97	UMass	2-4
98	Kansas	2-3
99	Northern Illinois	2-3
100	Purdue	2-3
101	Ball State	2-3
102	Arizona	2-3
103	UConn	1-4
104	UTSA	2-3
105	Charlotte	2-3
106	Iowa State	1-3
107	North Carolina	1-3
108	Northwestern	1-3
109	Louisiana	1-3
110	Tulsa	1-3
111	Air Force	1-3
112	Colorado State	1-4
113	Rice	1-4
114	Rutgers	1-4
115	Miami (OH)	1-4
116	South Alabama	1-4
117	Central Michigan	1-4
T-118	Arkansas	1-4
T-118	Kent State	1-4
120	Bowling Green	1-4
121	Old Dominion	1-4
122	Oregon State	1-4
123	Western Kentucky	1-4
124	San Jose State	0-4
125	UCLA	0-4
126	New Mexico State	1-4
127	Texas State	1-3
128	Nebraska	0-4
129	UTEP	0-5

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama
Week 4 Stanford

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

4-0 is a strong start, and I've got the Rams as the first team to cross a 90% chance of making the playoffs. They were also first to cross 80%, on Sunday, a full week earlier than last year's team. The Rams haven't started off this well since 2001, when the clock operator stole their chance of a kick return TD to win their second Superbowl in 3 years. I'm still not sure if I can root for them yet, but I don't have anyone else to root for either.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	4-0	0.601	84.79	92.88	82.75	49.36	29.13	16.72
MIA	3-0	0.547	68.73	81.61	65.26	34.56	18.13	9.25
BAL	2-1	0.570	40.92	63.83	46.84	25.90	14.24	7.60
KC	3-0	0.534	64.20	76.63	57.63	29.56	14.98	7.45
WAS	2-1	0.548	45.17	62.65	45.33	23.80	12.14	6.32
JAC	2-1	0.535	40.35	54.34	36.79	18.79	9.55	4.76
CHI	2-1	0.519	46.51	58.35	38.86	18.94	9.06	4.46
CIN	2-1	0.520	29.09	50.93	34.01	16.82	8.32	4.02
CAR	2-1	0.523	30.68	49.21	32.91	16.25	7.86	3.90
TB	2-1	0.516	33.11	51.25	34.23	16.66	7.93	3.88
PHI	2-1	0.510	31.70	47.38	30.42	14.58	6.87	3.32
TEN	2-1	0.497	36.00	47.53	28.98	13.61	6.38	2.94
NYJ	1-2	0.538	17.07	35.13	22.00	11.24	5.75	2.88
NO	2-1	0.501	23.92	41.09	25.81	12.11	5.60	2.66
DEN	2-1	0.481	23.00	38.18	22.46	10.17	4.59	2.04
CLE	1-1-1	0.502	15.33	30.58	18.52	8.82	4.20	1.96
PIT	1-1-1	0.497	14.66	29.55	17.65	8.30	3.91	1.80
SEA	1-2	0.502	8.53	28.95	16.58	7.63	3.61	1.72
GB	1-1-1	0.476	22.98	34.23	19.59	8.61	3.76	1.69
IND	1-2	0.493	18.89	26.79	15.44	7.18	3.34	1.53
ATL	1-2	0.491	12.28	23.44	13.46	6.12	2.78	1.29
LAC	1-2	0.482	9.86	23.12	12.89	5.85	2.66	1.19
NYG	1-2	0.483	11.50	21.60	12.40	5.56	2.48	1.13
DET	1-2	0.469	16.53	23.59	12.93	5.58	2.40	1.06
SF	1-2	0.473	5.95	21.54	11.64	5.02	2.23	0.99
MIN	1-2-1	0.463	13.98	21.49	11.36	4.82	2.04	0.89
DAL	1-2	0.465	11.63	19.03	10.32	4.45	1.90	0.83
NE	1-2	0.460	7.84	16.36	8.76	3.80	1.65	0.70
BUF	1-2	0.439	6.35	11.54	5.82	2.40	0.99	0.40
HOU	0-3	0.469	4.75	7.84	4.02	1.77	0.79	0.34
OAK	0-3	0.445	2.93	6.04	2.94	1.22	0.51	0.21
ARI	0-3	0.410	0.73	3.30	1.42	0.52	0.20	0.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Los Angeles Rams (Week 4, Thursday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

November Card Show Autographs

I got a little behind on posting, so hey, let's catch up. The last autographed balls I appear to have posted was from the 2 shows I went to in October 2017, so let's see what November brought.

Gary Gaetti                                                 Joe Cunningham

Part of the reason I write these posts is to show off the new piece of my collection, but another reason is to make a note of how the experience was getting the autograph. Nothing unusual happened when meeting Joe Cunningham, but for Gary Gaetti, the guy in front of me in line had a pretty interesting project. He had created prints using graphics from RBI Baseball (probably the greatest NES baseball game). I'm actually not sure he only had them for players in the game, or if he made ones for other players, but Gaetti was on the Minnesota roster in that game. I've talked before about starting an RBI Baseball collection of some sort, but this guy went above and beyond. The funniest part was that the guy left his binder with all his hard work behind on the table. And he had apparently done all his card show shopping and the autograph was his last stop, because someone had to go catch him in the parking lot.

I already had Gary Gaetti's autograph on a ball, but that one didn't fit my collection very well. It has several other players on it I met at the Cardinals Winter Warmup one year. I figured since I had the chance, I'd upgrade to a ball that fit with all my others.

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

Pittsburgh held on to beat Tampa Bay by 3 points, raising their playoff chances from 21.2% to 29.6%, and dropping Tampa Bay's from 60.3% to 50.9%. Miami remains on top of the AFC, mostly due to their huge advantage in their division, at 3-0 vs 1-2 for New England, Buffalo, and New York. LA is in an even better situation at 3-0 with 2 division rivals at 1-2 and one 0-3.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	3-0	0.586	78.50	87.53	74.61	43.37	24.98	13.96
MIA	3-0	0.547	68.67	81.50	65.11	34.48	18.08	9.37
BAL	2-1	0.570	40.91	63.80	46.81	25.88	14.23	7.71
KC	3-0	0.534	64.25	76.76	57.79	29.64	15.02	7.59
WAS	2-1	0.548	45.11	62.41	45.60	24.17	12.58	6.55
JAC	2-1	0.535	40.33	54.31	36.76	18.77	9.54	4.83
CHI	2-1	0.519	43.69	56.83	38.49	18.99	9.27	4.56
CIN	2-1	0.520	29.07	50.91	33.98	16.81	8.31	4.08
CAR	2-1	0.523	30.64	48.91	33.02	16.51	8.14	4.04
TB	2-1	0.516	33.07	50.94	34.39	16.94	8.22	4.02
PHI	2-1	0.510	31.77	47.22	30.69	14.90	7.16	3.46
TEN	2-1	0.497	36.02	47.55	28.99	13.62	6.39	2.99
NYJ	1-2	0.538	17.06	34.97	21.89	11.19	5.73	2.92
NO	2-1	0.501	24.01	40.94	26.00	12.37	5.83	2.77
DEN	2-1	0.481	23.06	38.39	22.61	10.24	4.63	2.10
CLE	1-1-1	0.502	15.35	30.59	18.53	8.82	4.21	1.99
SEA	1-2	0.502	11.83	29.72	17.51	8.26	3.96	1.88
PIT	1-1-1	0.497	14.67	29.57	17.67	8.31	3.92	1.84
GB	1-1-1	0.476	21.47	33.37	19.45	8.70	3.87	1.74
IND	1-2	0.493	18.88	26.78	15.44	7.18	3.34	1.56
MIN	1-1-1	0.473	19.63	30.09	17.37	7.70	3.40	1.52
ATL	1-2	0.491	12.28	23.23	13.47	6.24	2.88	1.34
LAC	1-2	0.482	9.78	23.08	12.87	5.84	2.66	1.21
NYG	1-2	0.483	11.49	21.41	12.41	5.66	2.57	1.17
SF	1-2	0.473	8.49	22.40	12.46	5.52	2.49	1.11
DET	1-2	0.469	15.20	22.65	12.65	5.55	2.44	1.08
DAL	1-2	0.465	11.62	18.88	10.35	4.53	1.98	0.87
NE	1-2	0.460	7.86	16.32	8.74	3.79	1.65	0.71
BUF	1-2	0.439	6.41	11.59	5.84	2.42	1.00	0.41
HOU	0-3	0.469	4.76	7.85	4.04	1.78	0.79	0.35
OAK	0-3	0.445	2.91	6.03	2.94	1.23	0.51	0.21
ARI	0-3	0.410	1.17	3.48	1.53	0.58	0.23	0.09

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

The projection remains steady. Miami doesn't seem like a powerhouse, having won their games by 7, 8, and 8 points, but they're still solidly atop the AFC with a 3-0 record. Baltimore is stronger, but lost a game, knocking their chances back a little bit.

I don't recall seeing New England that far down the chart since I've been running these numbers. I can't say for sure it hasn't happened, but they always seem to win early and remain on top for the whole season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	3-0	0.586	78.51	87.27	74.02	42.97	24.72	13.82
MIA	3-0	0.547	68.65	81.84	65.44	34.65	18.16	9.40
BAL	2-1	0.570	42.75	65.04	47.73	26.38	14.51	7.85
KC	3-0	0.534	64.17	77.05	58.07	29.77	15.08	7.61
WAS	2-1	0.548	45.07	61.80	44.86	23.72	12.33	6.42
TB	2-0	0.519	41.01	60.27	42.79	21.28	10.37	5.10
JAC	2-1	0.535	40.37	54.87	37.16	18.97	9.64	4.88
CHI	2-1	0.519	43.64	56.26	37.82	18.63	9.09	4.47
CIN	2-1	0.520	30.71	52.23	34.85	17.24	8.53	4.19
CAR	2-1	0.523	27.32	47.46	31.71	15.83	7.80	3.87
PHI	2-1	0.510	31.80	46.66	30.01	14.53	6.99	3.37
TEN	2-1	0.497	35.99	48.02	29.31	13.76	6.45	3.02
NYJ	1-2	0.538	17.05	35.60	22.25	11.36	5.82	2.96
NO	2-1	0.501	20.92	39.54	24.80	11.79	5.55	2.63
DEN	2-1	0.481	23.11	38.99	22.95	10.39	4.69	2.12
CLE	1-1-1	0.502	16.31	31.47	19.04	9.07	4.32	2.05
SEA	1-2	0.502	11.83	29.19	17.14	8.09	3.88	1.84
GB	1-1-1	0.477	21.49	32.75	18.95	8.45	3.77	1.70
IND	1-2	0.493	18.88	27.19	15.68	7.29	3.39	1.57
MIN	1-1-1	0.473	19.66	29.54	16.92	7.49	3.31	1.48
ATL	1-2	0.491	10.75	22.15	12.78	5.91	2.73	1.27
PIT	0-1-1	0.492	10.24	21.19	12.25	5.70	2.66	1.23
LAC	1-2	0.482	9.81	23.62	13.15	5.97	2.71	1.23
NYG	1-2	0.483	11.49	21.01	12.10	5.51	2.51	1.14
SF	1-2	0.473	8.48	21.84	12.12	5.37	2.42	1.08
DET	1-2	0.469	15.21	22.36	12.41	5.44	2.39	1.06
DAL	1-2	0.466	11.63	18.52	10.09	4.41	1.93	0.85
NE	1-2	0.460	7.88	16.76	8.96	3.88	1.69	0.73
BUF	1-2	0.439	6.42	11.89	5.99	2.47	1.02	0.42
HOU	0-3	0.469	4.76	8.05	4.13	1.82	0.81	0.36
OAK	0-3	0.445	2.92	6.21	3.02	1.26	0.53	0.22
ARI	0-3	0.410	1.17	3.36	1.48	0.56	0.22	0.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Stanford took over #1 from Alabama by beating as slightly-higher ranked team this week. They beat Oregon, #49, while Alabama beat Texas A&M, now #56. 13 undefeated teams lost this week, so we're down to 21 of them. 5 teams are 3-0 and 16 are 4-0. At the bottom, UTEP held strong at #129 with another loss. Interestingly, there are only 4 winless teams remaining.

1	Stanford	4-0
2	Alabama	4-0
3	LSU	4-0
4	Georgia	4-0
5	Notre Dame	4-0
6	Penn State	4-0
7	Duke	4-0
8	South Florida	4-0
9	Kentucky	4-0
10	Syracuse	4-0
11	Clemson	4-0
12	Oklahoma	4-0
13	Hawai'i	4-1
14	Buffalo	4-0
15	Ohio State	4-0
16	North Texas	4-0
17	Cincinnati	4-0
18	BYU	3-1
19	California	3-0
20	NC State	3-0
21	San Diego State	3-1
22	Washington	3-1
23	Maryland	3-1
24	Texas Tech	3-1
25	Texas	3-1
26	Wisconsin	3-1
27	Oklahoma State	3-1
28	Indiana	3-1
T-29	Coastal Carolina	3-1
T-29	Ole Miss	3-1
31	Arkansas State	3-1
32	West Virginia	3-0
33	Virginia	3-1
34	Washington State	3-1
35	Auburn	3-1
36	Miami	3-1
37	Missouri	3-1
38	Mississippi State	3-1
39	Baylor	3-1
40	Michigan	3-1
41	UCF	3-0
T-42	Florida	3-1
T-42	Minnesota	3-1
44	Boston College	3-1
45	Iowa	3-1
46	Troy	3-1
47	Houston	3-1
48	Memphis	3-1
49	Oregon	3-1
50	Colorado	3-0
51	South Carolina	2-1
52	Utah State	3-1
53	Michigan State	2-1
54	USC	2-2
55	Army	2-2
56	Texas A&M	2-2
57	Boise State	2-1
58	Temple	2-2
59	Utah	2-1
60	Wake Forest	2-2
61	Arizona State	2-2
62	Marshall	2-1
63	TCU	2-2
64	Louisiana Tech	2-1
65	Illinois	2-2
66	Eastern Michigan	2-2
67	Appalachian State	2-1
68	Georgia Southern	2-1
69	Louisville	2-2
70	Vanderbilt	2-2
71	Florida Intl	2-2
72	Wyoming	2-2
73	New Mexico	2-1
74	UMass	2-3
75	UL Monroe	2-2
76	Tennessee	2-2
77	Navy	2-2
78	Toledo	2-1
79	Florida Atlantic	2-2
80	Southern Mississippi	2-1
81	UAB	2-1
82	Kansas State	2-2
83	Pittsburgh	2-2
84	Western Michigan	2-2
85	Fresno State	2-1
86	Akron	2-1
87	Virginia Tech	2-1
88	Florida State	2-2
89	Kansas	2-2
90	UNLV	2-2
91	Arizona	2-2
92	Nevada	2-2
93	Charlotte	2-2
94	Iowa State	1-2
95	Georgia Tech	1-3
96	UConn	1-3
97	Air Force	1-2
98	SMU	1-3
99	East Carolina	1-2
100	Georgia State	1-3
101	Tulsa	1-3
102	Middle Tennessee	1-2
103	Ohio	1-2
104	Louisiana	1-2
105	North Carolina	1-2
106	Northwestern	1-2
107	Miami (OH)	1-3
108	Tulane	1-3
109	Purdue	1-3
110	Rice	1-3
111	Kent State	1-3
112	Bowling Green	1-3
113	Colorado State	1-4
114	Ball State	1-3
115	Rutgers	1-3
116	South Alabama	1-3
117	Western Kentucky	1-3
118	Northern Illinois	1-3
119	UTSA	1-3
120	Central Michigan	1-3
121	Arkansas	1-3
122	Old Dominion	1-3
123	Oregon State	1-3
124	New Mexico State	1-4
125	UCLA	0-3
126	San Jose State	0-3
127	Nebraska	0-3
128	Texas State	1-3
129	UTEP	0-4

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i
Week 3 Alabama

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

The projection didn't change, but there's still big news! Cleveland actually won a game. Sure, they managed not to lose in week 1, but now they've got a win.

I'm really thinking I need to add in homefield advantage next year. I've been making picks in fivethirtyeight's projection contest, and in that one I use my strengths here but also the 2017 rate of  homefield advantage (145 out of 256 games were won by the home team, if you're curious). That caused me to pick Cleveland over New York. despite a .539 to .493 disadvantage for Cleveland. Maybe I should make a second entry without homefield considered and just let them keep track for me which one does better.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	2-0	0.562	67.01	77.58	61.72	34.50	19.21	10.41
MIA	2-0	0.533	55.63	68.40	50.39	26.04	13.41	6.94
CIN	2-0	0.533	47.24	64.50	47.15	24.38	12.58	6.52
JAC	2-0	0.532	50.19	63.76	46.44	23.94	12.29	6.35
TB	2-0	0.519	44.64	62.18	45.26	23.00	11.57	5.78
KC	2-0	0.519	42.47	60.63	42.63	21.37	10.66	5.37
BAL	1-1	0.547	26.26	46.22	31.31	16.59	8.79	4.67
MIN	1-0-1	0.515	36.58	53.88	37.11	18.64	9.32	4.62
DEN	2-0	0.508	36.71	54.16	36.67	17.94	8.74	4.31
WAS	1-1	0.518	33.93	46.52	31.20	15.75	7.92	3.95
GB	1-0-1	0.502	31.39	49.22	32.73	15.96	7.75	3.74
CHI	1-1	0.513	25.45	41.71	27.37	13.66	6.79	3.35
NYJ	1-2	0.538	19.41	32.73	20.71	10.75	5.58	2.92
DAL	1-1	0.497	29.16	39.65	24.89	11.98	5.75	2.74
PHI	1-1	0.500	27.78	38.50	24.20	11.74	5.68	2.73
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.80	36.83	23.48	11.46	5.57	2.69
CAR	1-1	0.502	18.76	35.25	22.51	10.98	5.34	2.58
IND	1-1	0.502	23.11	34.54	21.37	10.30	4.96	2.42
SF	1-1	0.490	19.62	35.16	21.66	10.29	4.92	2.32
LAC	1-1	0.502	16.18	32.63	19.99	9.63	4.63	2.25
CLE	1-1-1	0.502	16.40	29.87	18.24	8.82	4.27	2.08
NE	1-1	0.492	19.62	31.41	18.91	8.94	4.22	2.02
NO	1-1	0.493	14.80	29.34	18.10	8.65	4.13	1.95
TEN	1-1	0.491	19.70	30.70	18.31	8.62	4.06	1.93
PIT	0-1-1	0.492	10.11	19.53	11.44	5.41	2.56	1.22
SEA	0-2	0.480	9.19	17.39	9.89	4.60	2.16	0.99
NYG	0-2	0.469	9.13	15.20	8.47	3.83	1.74	0.78
HOU	0-2	0.478	7.00	12.34	6.80	3.12	1.43	0.66
DET	0-2	0.456	6.58	12.50	6.81	3.00	1.33	0.58
OAK	0-2	0.460	4.64	10.57	5.63	2.48	1.09	0.48
ARI	0-2	0.438	4.17	9.10	4.60	1.94	0.83	0.35
BUF	0-2	0.441	5.34	8.02	4.01	1.69	0.71	0.30

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Final

Los Angeles Rams over Miami

With 2 lower teams, nothing changed at the top, and I'm too busy to analyze it. So here you go!

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	2-0	0.562	67.02	77.58	61.72	34.49	19.20	10.39
MIA	2-0	0.533	51.93	67.32	49.44	25.51	13.13	6.79
CIN	2-0	0.533	50.14	65.63	47.80	24.69	12.73	6.59
JAC	2-0	0.532	50.18	63.70	46.20	23.78	12.20	6.30
TB	2-0	0.519	44.69	62.29	45.37	23.06	11.60	5.78
KC	2-0	0.519	42.48	60.49	42.43	21.24	10.58	5.33
BAL	1-1	0.547	28.00	46.99	31.72	16.79	8.88	4.72
MIN	1-0-1	0.515	36.58	53.84	37.07	18.63	9.31	4.61
DEN	2-0	0.508	36.70	54.07	36.55	17.86	8.69	4.28
NYJ	1-1	0.539	25.38	43.42	28.82	15.00	7.81	4.09
WAS	1-1	0.518	33.94	46.50	31.19	15.74	7.91	3.94
GB	1-0-1	0.502	31.39	49.17	32.70	15.95	7.75	3.73
CHI	1-1	0.513	25.45	41.69	27.36	13.65	6.79	3.34
DAL	1-1	0.497	29.16	39.63	24.87	11.97	5.74	2.74
PHI	1-1	0.500	27.78	38.48	24.18	11.73	5.68	2.72
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.82	36.92	23.55	11.48	5.58	2.69
CAR	1-1	0.502	18.78	35.34	22.57	11.01	5.35	2.58
IND	1-1	0.502	23.10	34.50	21.24	10.22	4.92	2.39
SF	1-1	0.490	19.62	35.14	21.65	10.29	4.92	2.31
LAC	1-1	0.502	16.18	32.42	19.82	9.53	4.58	2.23
NE	1-1	0.492	17.96	30.64	18.43	8.70	4.11	1.96
NO	1-1	0.493	14.72	29.26	18.05	8.63	4.12	1.95
TEN	1-1	0.491	19.69	30.60	18.19	8.56	4.02	1.91
CLE	0-1-1	0.493	10.90	19.86	11.58	5.49	2.60	1.24
PIT	0-1-1	0.492	10.96	19.88	11.58	5.47	2.59	1.24
SEA	0-2	0.480	9.19	17.38	9.88	4.60	2.15	0.99
NYG	0-2	0.469	9.13	15.19	8.45	3.83	1.74	0.78
HOU	0-2	0.478	7.03	12.36	6.79	3.10	1.42	0.66
DET	0-2	0.456	6.58	12.50	6.81	3.00	1.32	0.58
OAK	0-2	0.460	4.64	10.49	5.58	2.45	1.07	0.48
ARI	0-2	0.438	4.17	9.09	4.59	1.94	0.83	0.35
BUF	0-2	0.441	4.73	7.63	3.83	1.61	0.68	0.29

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Miami

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Los Angeles Rams over Miami Dolphins

I always note the first point in each year when certain levels of championship chances are breached. The first is the 10% mark, reached for (I believe) the earliest point ever by the LA Rams. They shut out Arizona, giving them an extremely high strength, which you may recall is based on points scored and allowed.

In the AFC, Miami, Cincinnati, and Jacksonvillie are very close to each other. Each is the only 2-0 team in their respective divisions, and the top and bottom have strengths with less than a .001 difference. Cincinnati is actually the strongest team, but Miami seems to have a slightly easier schedule that bumps them into the top spot in the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAR	2-0	0.562	63.47	76.24	60.77	34.02	18.97	10.26
MIA	2-0	0.533	51.94	67.46	49.58	25.58	13.16	6.82
CIN	2-0	0.533	50.14	65.62	47.78	24.68	12.73	6.60
JAC	2-0	0.532	50.20	63.69	46.19	23.78	12.19	6.31
TB	2-0	0.519	44.93	62.57	45.72	23.28	11.73	5.85
KC	2-0	0.519	42.38	60.31	42.26	21.15	10.53	5.31
MIN	1-0-1	0.515	40.29	55.59	38.32	19.29	9.65	4.78
BAL	1-1	0.547	28.00	47.00	31.73	16.79	8.88	4.73
DEN	2-0	0.508	36.89	54.15	36.60	17.89	8.71	4.30
NYJ	1-1	0.539	25.39	43.58	28.94	15.06	7.84	4.11
WAS	1-1	0.518	33.98	46.58	31.29	15.83	7.97	3.97
GB	1-0-1	0.502	34.59	50.49	33.62	16.42	7.99	3.85
PHI	1-1	0.500	27.81	38.54	24.27	11.80	5.72	2.74
DAL	1-1	0.497	28.98	39.49	24.83	11.98	5.76	2.74
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.80	36.94	23.62	11.55	5.62	2.71
CAR	1-1	0.502	18.59	35.23	22.55	11.02	5.37	2.59
IND	1-1	0.502	23.10	34.49	21.23	10.22	4.92	2.40
SF	1-1	0.490	18.19	34.29	21.20	10.08	4.83	2.27
LAC	1-1	0.502	16.13	32.23	19.70	9.47	4.55	2.22
CHI	0-1	0.498	17.68	29.12	18.07	8.75	4.22	2.02
NE	1-1	0.492	17.94	30.76	18.51	8.74	4.13	1.97
NO	1-1	0.493	14.68	29.28	18.11	8.68	4.15	1.96
SEA	0-1	0.494	14.55	28.42	17.48	8.40	4.06	1.92
TEN	1-1	0.491	19.68	30.57	18.17	8.55	4.02	1.91
CLE	0-1-1	0.493	10.89	19.85	11.57	5.48	2.60	1.24
PIT	0-1-1	0.492	10.96	19.87	11.58	5.47	2.59	1.24
NYG	0-2	0.469	9.23	15.32	8.55	3.88	1.76	0.79
HOU	0-2	0.478	7.03	12.34	6.78	3.10	1.42	0.66
DET	0-2	0.456	7.45	13.10	7.13	3.15	1.39	0.61
OAK	0-2	0.460	4.61	10.40	5.52	2.42	1.07	0.47
ARI	0-2	0.438	3.78	8.79	4.46	1.89	0.80	0.34
BUF	0-2	0.441	4.73	7.68	3.85	1.62	0.68	0.29

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Los Angeles Rams (Week 2, Sunday)

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore
[Week 2, Thursday] Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

The rankings are starting to look as expected now, with Alabama on top. There are still 34 undefeated teams, though, so those teams still have to keep winning to stay on top. Missouri, my adopted college football team, has risen all the way up to #22. Of course, SEC conference play is on the horizon. At the bottom, New Mexico State lost again to fall to 0-4, but UTEP took over the bottom spot on strength of schedule.

1	Alabama	3-0
2	Stanford	3-0
3	Indiana	3-0
4	Oklahoma State	3-0
5	Notre Dame	3-0
6	Duke	3-0
7	South Florida	3-0
8	Boston College	3-0
9	Clemson	3-0
10	Penn State	3-0
11	Georgia	3-0
12	Washington State	3-0
13	LSU	3-0
14	Hawai'i	3-1
15	California	3-0
16	Ohio State	3-0
17	Syracuse	3-0
18	Buffalo	3-0
19	Mississippi State	3-0
20	Oklahoma	3-0
21	Oregon	3-0
22	Missouri	3-0
23	Minnesota	3-0
24	Kentucky	3-0
25	Iowa	3-0
26	North Texas	3-0
27	Colorado	3-0
28	Cincinnati	3-0
29	San Diego State	2-1
30	Washington	2-1
31	Army	2-1
32	Texas A&M	2-1
33	Auburn	2-1
34	Arkansas State	2-1
35	NC State	2-0
36	Navy	2-1
37	Wake Forest	2-1
38	Boise State	2-1
39	Vanderbilt	2-1
40	Ole Miss	2-1
41	Memphis	2-1
42	Virginia	2-1
43	BYU	2-1
44	West Virginia	2-0
45	Utah	2-1
46	Coastal Carolina	2-1
47	Illinois	2-1
48	Texas Tech	2-1
49	Baylor	2-1
50	Texas	2-1
51	Maryland	2-1
52	Virginia Tech	2-0
53	Pittsburgh	2-1
54	Louisiana Tech	2-0
55	Florida Atlantic	2-1
56	UCF	2-0
57	Louisville	2-1
58	Eastern Michigan	2-1
59	Georgia Southern	2-1
60	Nevada	2-1
61	Wisconsin	2-1
62	Florida Intl	2-1
63	Houston	2-1
64	Wyoming	2-2
65	Florida	2-1
66	Arizona State	2-1
67	UL Monroe	2-1
67	Miami	2-1
69	UAB	2-1
70	Marshall	2-0
71	Fresno State	2-1
71	Michigan	2-1
73	Tennessee	2-1
74	TCU	2-1
75	Akron	2-0
76	Kansas State	2-1
77	Troy	2-1
78	New Mexico	2-1
79	Kansas	2-1
80	UNLV	2-1
81	South Carolina	1-1
82	Utah State	2-1
83	Charlotte	2-1
84	Appalachian State	1-1
84	Temple	1-2
86	Air Force	1-1
87	USC	1-2
88	Georgia Tech	1-2
89	UMass	1-3
90	Georgia State	1-2
91	UConn	1-2
92	Michigan State	1-1
93	Tulsa	1-2
94	Ball State	1-2
95	East Carolina	1-1
96	Southern Mississippi	1-1
97	Tulane	1-2
98	Bowling Green	1-2
99	Louisiana	1-1
100	South Alabama	1-2
101	Florida State	1-2
102	Middle Tennessee	1-2
103	Rice	1-2
104	Ohio	1-1
105	Colorado State	1-3
106	Kent State	1-2
107	Northern Illinois	1-2
108	Rutgers	1-2
109	Northwestern	1-2
110	Toledo	1-1
111	Oregon State	1-2
112	Western Michigan	1-2
113	Arizona	1-2
114	Arkansas	1-2
115	Texas State	1-2
116	Iowa State	0-2
117	San Jose State	0-3
118	Nebraska	0-2
119	UCLA	0-3
120	Miami (OH)	0-3
121	North Carolina	0-2
122	SMU	0-3
123	UTSA	0-3
124	Western Kentucky	0-3
125	Purdue	0-3
126	Central Michigan	0-3
127	New Mexico State	0-4
128	Old Dominion	0-3
129	UTEP	0-3

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i
Week 2 Hawai'i

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Cincinnati over Los Angeles Rams

Ah, Week 2, Thursday, my least favorite projections of the year. Every year it seems some team is 2-0 and becomes the strongest team because of the way I regress strengths early in the season. One of these years I'll fix that somehow. But for now, the numbers put Cincinnati as your Super Bowl champs, with LA still winning the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	2-0	0.533	44.67	63.91	47.64	24.99	13.11	6.87
WAS	1-0	0.530	39.46	57.63	41.77	21.94	11.50	5.95
LAR	1-0	0.528	47.73	59.07	42.49	22.18	11.54	5.93
CAR	1-0	0.524	39.08	54.97	39.13	20.29	10.50	5.37
NYJ	1-0	0.529	33.37	50.87	36.20	18.79	9.71	5.05
MIN	1-0	0.517	37.96	53.85	37.92	19.36	9.84	4.96
BAL	1-1	0.547	24.55	45.82	31.71	17.03	9.16	4.93
PHI	1-0	0.517	34.26	52.06	36.39	18.57	9.48	4.78
JAC	1-0	0.513	43.43	52.26	35.49	17.75	8.85	4.46
KC	1-0	0.514	38.72	51.17	35.03	17.58	8.79	4.44
TB	1-0	0.508	34.62	49.83	34.03	17.04	8.52	4.22
MIA	1-0	0.513	28.75	47.07	32.51	16.32	8.17	4.12
NE	1-0	0.513	28.64	46.72	32.25	16.19	8.10	4.09
GB	1-0	0.502	34.13	49.49	33.52	16.54	8.15	3.98
DEN	1-0	0.506	34.24	46.41	31.07	15.32	7.53	3.74
CLE	0-0-1	0.500	15.45	29.82	19.04	9.29	4.54	2.23
PIT	0-0-1	0.500	15.33	29.64	18.94	9.24	4.52	2.22
SEA	0-1	0.494	19.86	30.58	19.10	9.27	4.50	2.16
CHI	0-1	0.498	15.12	27.31	16.94	8.28	4.05	1.96
NYG	0-1	0.487	14.07	25.86	15.87	7.59	3.63	1.72
SF	0-1	0.483	17.29	26.13	15.61	7.38	3.49	1.64
HOU	0-1	0.487	18.96	25.43	14.98	7.08	3.34	1.60
NO	0-1	0.492	12.57	23.23	14.13	6.83	3.30	1.58
TEN	0-1	0.487	18.64	24.99	14.68	6.94	3.28	1.57
IND	0-1	0.483	18.97	25.17	14.72	6.90	3.23	1.53
LAC	0-1	0.486	13.75	22.80	13.58	6.42	3.03	1.45
ATL	0-1	0.483	13.73	22.92	13.67	6.48	3.07	1.44
DAL	0-1	0.476	12.21	22.04	13.01	6.07	2.83	1.31
DET	0-1	0.471	12.80	22.52	13.36	6.17	2.85	1.30
ARI	0-1	0.470	15.12	22.52	13.06	6.01	2.76	1.26
OAK	0-1	0.472	13.30	21.10	12.35	5.66	2.59	1.20
BUF	0-1	0.469	9.24	16.83	9.82	4.48	2.04	0.94

[Week 1] Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore

Super Bowl LIII Projection, Week 1

Los Angeles Rams over Baltimore


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. Baltimore won 47-3. They might be the strongest team, or Buffalo might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Oddly enough, even though Washington has the best overall chances of winning the Super Bowl, they are not favored to win the NFC, thus LA is my winner. The biggest reason for that is that LA is the only 1-0 team in their division, starting them off at a 48% chance of winning the division, while Washington also has Philadelphia to contend with, so they are only a 39% favorite. Similarly, Baltimore also has a division rival at 1-0, and the other two at 0-0-1, which is better than 0-1.

Speaking of that 0-0-1 record, Cleveland has already improved on 2017 with a tie, better than their 0-16 last year. I don't keep track of too many decimal places on the exact records, but the chances I show of the following teams going 0-16 round to 0.01 instead of 0.00 (so they're at least 0.005%, but under 0.015%): New Orleans, Atlanta, Dallas, Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
WAS	1-0	0.530	39.47	57.53	41.67	21.89	11.48	5.98
LAR	1-0	0.528	47.72	58.99	42.39	22.13	11.52	5.97
BAL	1-0	0.531	35.51	53.94	38.89	20.44	10.72	5.60
CAR	1-0	0.524	39.05	55.21	39.36	20.41	10.56	5.44
NYJ	1-0	0.529	33.29	51.12	36.47	19.05	9.93	5.16
MIN	1-0	0.517	37.96	53.76	37.84	19.31	9.82	4.98
PHI	1-0	0.517	34.23	51.94	36.28	18.52	9.45	4.80
KC	1-0	0.514	38.72	51.76	35.74	18.07	9.11	4.59
JAC	1-0	0.513	43.34	52.38	35.76	18.01	9.05	4.56
CIN	1-0	0.517	30.01	48.29	33.65	17.13	8.72	4.43
TB	1-0	0.508	34.63	50.09	34.27	17.16	8.58	4.28
MIA	1-0	0.513	28.93	47.50	32.91	16.63	8.40	4.24
NE	1-0	0.513	28.58	46.98	32.51	16.43	8.30	4.19
GB	1-0	0.502	34.12	49.38	33.44	16.51	8.13	4.00
DEN	1-0	0.506	34.24	46.98	31.73	15.76	7.81	3.88
CLE	0-0-1	0.500	17.30	31.58	20.34	10.00	4.92	2.41
PIT	0-0-1	0.500	17.18	31.40	20.24	9.95	4.89	2.40
SEA	0-1	0.494	19.86	30.50	19.04	9.24	4.48	2.17
CHI	0-1	0.498	15.12	27.23	16.89	8.25	4.03	1.97
NYG	0-1	0.487	14.08	25.80	15.84	7.58	3.63	1.73
SF	0-1	0.483	17.30	26.07	15.57	7.36	3.49	1.65
HOU	0-1	0.487	18.93	25.55	15.15	7.21	3.43	1.64
TEN	0-1	0.487	18.79	25.39	15.06	7.17	3.41	1.63
NO	0-1	0.492	12.59	23.46	14.29	6.90	3.34	1.61
IND	0-1	0.483	18.95	25.24	14.87	7.03	3.32	1.58
LAC	0-1	0.486	13.75	23.29	13.98	6.66	3.17	1.52
ATL	0-1	0.483	13.73	23.13	13.82	6.55	3.10	1.47
DAL	0-1	0.476	12.22	21.97	12.96	6.05	2.82	1.32
DET	0-1	0.471	12.80	22.47	13.32	6.15	2.84	1.31
ARI	0-1	0.470	15.12	22.46	13.02	5.99	2.76	1.27
OAK	0-1	0.472	13.30	21.54	12.72	5.88	2.71	1.26
BUF	0-1	0.469	9.21	17.07	9.98	4.58	2.11	0.97

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

How about that, Hawai'i stays at #1 for the first 2 weeks. Can they run the table? Probably not, they're mostly there by having played a game in Week 0. The rest of the ratings are still mostly silly, but there are a few traditional powerhouses near the top, including #2 Alabama. At the bottom, New Mexico State is still last, all the way down to #129 now.

1	Hawai'i	3-0
2	Alabama	2-0
3	Stanford	2-0
4	Auburn	2-0
5	NC State	2-0
6	Georgia	2-0
7	Ohio State	2-0
8	South Florida	2-0
9	Duke	2-0
10	Notre Dame	2-0
11	Penn State	2-0
12	Wake Forest	2-0
13	Virginia Tech	2-0
14	Ole Miss	2-0
15	Indiana	2-0
16	Vanderbilt	2-0
17	Oklahoma	2-0
18	Georgia Southern	2-0
19	Boston College	2-0
20	Marshall	2-0
21	Mississippi State	2-0
22	Maryland	2-0
23	Colorado	2-0
24	Baylor	2-0
25	Arizona State	2-0
26	Oklahoma State	2-0
27	Boise State	2-0
28	Eastern Michigan	2-0
29	West Virginia	2-0
30	Syracuse	2-0
31	Clemson	2-0
32	UL Monroe	2-0
33	Houston	2-0
34	Wisconsin	2-0
35	LSU	2-0
36	Utah	2-0
37	California	2-0
38	Minnesota	2-0
39	Kentucky	2-0
40	Washington State	2-0
41	Illinois	2-0
42	Cincinnati	2-0
43	Iowa	2-0
44	UCF	2-0
45	Missouri	2-0
46	Louisiana Tech	2-0
47	TCU	2-0
48	Oregon	2-0
49	Buffalo	2-0
50	North Texas	2-0
51	Florida Atlantic	1-1
52	UMass	1-2
53	Navy	1-1
54	Arkansas State	1-1
55	Louisville	1-1
56	Tulane	1-1
57	South Carolina	1-1
58	Rutgers	1-1
59	Texas	1-1
60	Air Force	1-1
61	San Diego State	1-1
62	Georgia Tech	1-1
63	Georgia State	1-1
64	Texas Tech	1-1
65	Washington	1-1
66	USC	1-1
67	Army	1-1
68	Kansas State	1-1
69	Ball State	1-1
70	Appalachian State	1-1
71	Colorado State	1-2
72	Florida State	1-1
73	Virginia	1-1
74	Troy	1-1
75	Michigan State	1-1
76	Tennessee	1-1
77	Texas A&M	1-1
78	Rice	1-2
79	Memphis	1-1
80	Fresno State	1-1
81	East Carolina	1-1
82	Northwestern	1-1
83	Oregon State	1-1
84	Michigan	1-1
85	Toledo	1-0
86	Pittsburgh	1-1
87	Middle Tennessee	1-1
88	Nevada	1-1
89	Southern Mississippi	1-1
90	Coastal Carolina	1-1
91	Texas State	1-1
91	Tulsa	1-1
93	Akron	1-0
94	Florida	1-1
95	Ohio	1-0
96	Louisiana	1-0
97	BYU	1-1
98	New Mexico	1-1
99	Florida Intl	1-1
100	Miami	1-1
101	Kent State	1-1
102	Arkansas	1-1
103	UNLV	1-1
104	Wyoming	1-2
105	Charlotte	1-1
106	Kansas	1-1
107	Utah State	1-1
108	UAB	1-1
109	Nebraska	0-1
110	UTSA	0-2
111	Iowa State	0-1
112	UCLA	0-2
113	Miami (OH)	0-2
114	UConn	0-2
115	Bowling Green	0-2
116	South Alabama	0-2
117	San Jose State	0-2
118	Temple	0-2
119	Northern Illinois	0-2
120	Western Kentucky	0-2
121	SMU	0-2
122	Purdue	0-2
123	Western Michigan	0-2
124	North Carolina	0-2
125	Arizona	0-2
126	Central Michigan	0-2
127	Old Dominion	0-2
128	UTEP	0-2
129	New Mexico State	0-3

2018 History and #1s
Week 1 Hawai'i

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS is now down to 129 teams. Every year I have to adjust my filter to account for any teams joining or leaving the FBS, as well as stylistic differences in how ESPN lists the teams. This year, Idaho left. And, according to ESPN, UT San Antonio is now UTSA, Louisiana Monroe is now UL Monroe, and Connecticut is now UConn. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Akron, Nebraska, and Iowa State still to add, since they were canceled this week.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly. Hawai'i sits alone at #1 due to being 2-0, and likewise all the way at the bottom, New Mexico State is already 0-2 and holding onto #126 alone.

1	Hawai'i	2-0
2	Houston	1-0
2	Boston College	1-0
4	Washington State	1-0
4	UMass	1-1
4	Rice	1-1
7	UCF	1-0
7	Ball State	1-0
7	Georgia State	1-0
7	UL Monroe	1-0
7	Northwestern	1-0
7	Wake Forest	1-0
7	UAB	1-0
7	Oklahoma State	1-0
7	Utah	1-0
7	Texas A&M	1-0
7	Wisconsin	1-0
7	Michigan State	1-0
7	Stanford	1-0
7	Syracuse	1-0
7	Eastern Michigan	1-0
7	Duke	1-0
7	Nevada	1-0
7	Alabama	1-0
7	Clemson	1-0
7	Georgia	1-0
7	Ohio State	1-0
7	Auburn	1-0
7	Oklahoma	1-0
7	Penn State	1-0
7	Notre Dame	1-0
7	USC	1-0
7	TCU	1-0
7	West Virginia	1-0
7	Mississippi State	1-0
7	Boise State	1-0
7	Maryland	1-0
7	Oregon	1-0
7	Illinois	1-0
7	Rutgers	1-0
7	South Carolina	1-0
7	Ole Miss	1-0
7	NC State	1-0
7	Georgia Tech	1-0
7	Air Force	1-0
7	Ohio	1-0
7	Pittsburgh	1-0
7	Kentucky	1-0
7	Iowa	1-0
7	California	1-0
7	Missouri	1-0
7	Arkansas	1-0
7	Virginia	1-0
7	Marshall	1-0
7	Charlotte	1-0
7	South Florida	1-0
7	Buffalo	1-0
7	Georgia Southern	1-0
7	Louisiana	1-0
7	Toledo	1-0
7	Arkansas State	1-0
7	Memphis	1-0
7	Tulsa	1-0
7	Louisiana Tech	1-0
7	Southern Mississippi	1-0
7	Cincinnati	1-0
7	Indiana	1-0
7	Kansas State	1-0
7	Florida	1-0
7	Vanderbilt	1-0
7	North Texas	1-0
7	Baylor	1-0
7	New Mexico	1-0
7	Fresno State	1-0
7	Arizona State	1-0
7	BYU	1-0
7	LSU	1-0
7	Virginia Tech	1-0
79	Colorado	1-0
80	Minnesota	1-0
81	Wyoming	1-1
82	East Carolina	0-1
83	Navy	0-1
84	UConn	0-1
84	Purdue	0-1
84	Tulane	0-1
84	San Jose State	0-1
84	Western Kentucky	0-1
84	Utah State	0-1
84	San Diego State	0-1
84	Western Michigan	0-1
84	Army	0-1
84	Louisville	0-1
84	Oregon State	0-1
84	Washington	0-1
84	Florida Atlantic	0-1
84	Appalachian State	0-1
84	Michigan	0-1
84	UNLV	0-1
84	Tennessee	0-1
84	Troy	0-1
84	Texas	0-1
84	Bowling Green	0-1
84	Kent State	0-1
84	Texas State	0-1
84	Coastal Carolina	0-1
84	Texas Tech	0-1
84	Temple	0-1
84	Central Michigan	0-1
84	Northern Illinois	0-1
84	North Carolina	0-1
84	Miami (OH)	0-1
84	Old Dominion	0-1
84	South Alabama	0-1
84	UCLA	0-1
84	Florida Intl	0-1
84	Kansas	0-1
84	Middle Tennessee	0-1
84	SMU	0-1
84	UTEP	0-1
84	UTSA	0-1
84	Arizona	0-1
84	Miami	0-1
84	Florida State	0-1
125	Colorado State	0-2
126	New Mexico State	0-2