2015-09-21

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Arizona over Cincinnati

For fans around my age, those two teams are represent the prototypical "bad" teams, and in my mind it would make for a bad Superbowl. In reality, in any given year a team with 12-18 wins going into the big game is obviously a good team that year.

Several teams have dropped below a 1% chance of being the champion, and all of them are 0-2. The Giants are also 0-2 but juuust above 1% likely to win it all. Thanks to their loss to Arizona, Chicago has fallen all the way to the bottom by strength, and is officially the worse team in the league according to me. Note that recent weeks are not weighted more heavily in my system; it doesn't know when games take place. Chicago and Arizona just happen to now have the best and worst points scored to allowed ratios, respectively.

The Rams followed up their surprising win at home with probably a more surprising loss at Washington. We would have been happy to start 1-1 before the season began, but everyone would have expected that loss to come against the defending NFC Champions.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI2-00.54656.9172.4855.4529.8015.898.42
CIN2-00.54451.0167.4151.5027.5214.667.71
CAR2-00.54146.1766.9349.5226.3013.877.28
GB2-00.53261.1971.7952.4927.2814.087.26
NYJ1-00.52930.2850.9136.0718.629.584.90
PIT1-10.52926.0840.2326.9713.887.143.65
DEN2-00.52748.4364.0347.2824.3112.426.32
TEN1-10.52641.8548.7231.6716.128.194.16
DAL2-00.52454.5967.3147.7524.3912.386.28
NE2-00.52237.4158.9442.4221.6110.965.54
WAS1-10.52129.4046.0430.1315.227.673.87
ATL2-00.51236.3361.3842.4721.0810.435.17
MIA1-10.51117.8432.4720.8810.345.122.52
BUF1-10.50814.4731.1219.779.744.802.36
KC1-10.50016.7232.0320.059.694.682.26
SD1-10.50020.1532.5720.429.874.762.30
NYG0-20.4909.0717.129.544.502.131.01
CLE1-10.48415.5327.1616.627.793.651.71
SF1-10.48217.7733.2620.119.344.342.03
BAL0-20.4827.3712.917.273.391.590.74
MIN1-10.48022.2434.0219.969.224.261.98
STL1-10.48018.4031.8518.928.734.041.87
JAC1-10.48027.1235.5021.299.834.532.09
SEA0-20.4786.9214.037.743.561.650.76
IND0-10.47618.0023.3713.316.102.801.29
OAK1-10.47514.7025.6315.196.963.191.46
DET0-20.4749.3816.989.344.251.940.89
PHI0-20.4736.9413.187.073.221.470.67
HOU0-20.47213.0317.019.304.221.920.87
NO0-20.4664.9611.926.392.861.280.58
TB1-10.46512.5428.1016.137.203.221.44
CHI0-20.4587.1913.587.003.061.350.59

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

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