Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Final

Arizona over New England

The same teams are still at the top, but Arizona's overall odds went down just slightly, while New England's improved. Why is that? The answer is the wildcard picture. Green Bay, of the NFC, defeated Kansas City of the AFC. While those teams are not in the same division as either of the current conference favorites, they could wind up competing for a wildcard slot. That lowers Arizona's playoff chances just a bit, and raises New England's, which cascades through all rounds.

At the bottom of the pile, Chicago's in worse wildcard AND divisional position since they're in the NFC North with Green Bay, bringing them to a season low 0.11% chance of winning the Superbowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-0	0.584	75.41	86.09	70.45	39.88	22.30	12.15
NE	3-0	0.562	49.42	76.75	59.49	31.75	16.84	8.84
NYJ	2-1	0.560	26.69	57.04	40.20	21.17	11.14	5.83
CIN	3-0	0.552	57.71	75.27	57.85	30.31	15.65	8.06
DEN	3-0	0.552	64.34	76.60	59.44	31.10	15.98	8.22
CAR	3-0	0.550	49.04	76.54	56.60	29.59	15.20	7.76
BUF	2-1	0.549	20.94	51.03	34.23	17.55	9.03	4.62
PIT	2-1	0.549	32.39	50.59	34.70	17.87	9.13	4.67
GB	3-0	0.545	64.75	80.02	59.86	30.89	15.73	7.95
ATL	3-0	0.529	44.89	78.04	56.27	27.98	13.73	6.72
SEA	1-2	0.527	12.66	29.08	17.02	8.32	4.10	2.00
MIN	2-1	0.525	30.60	51.92	32.97	16.12	7.88	3.83
TEN	1-2	0.520	33.87	38.00	21.48	10.25	4.91	2.37
NYG	1-2	0.511	23.05	31.78	17.84	8.37	3.95	1.87
DAL	2-1	0.500	42.52	50.77	29.71	13.64	6.28	2.89
HOU	1-2	0.490	28.74	32.18	17.23	7.72	3.46	1.57
WAS	1-2	0.490	17.58	26.17	14.38	6.45	2.90	1.31
PHI	1-2	0.488	16.85	23.62	12.62	5.63	2.53	1.14
OAK	2-1	0.484	18.82	34.55	20.30	9.05	4.02	1.80
KC	1-2	0.483	7.81	19.14	10.65	4.72	2.09	0.93
BAL	0-3	0.475	2.83	6.27	3.16	1.38	0.60	0.26
CLE	1-2	0.470	7.07	13.66	7.45	3.24	1.40	0.61
SD	1-2	0.469	9.03	17.11	9.18	3.94	1.69	0.73
STL	1-2	0.461	8.41	19.61	10.18	4.31	1.84	0.78
NO	0-3	0.456	1.40	6.01	2.85	1.18	0.49	0.21
IND	1-2	0.454	21.06	23.55	11.24	4.62	1.91	0.80
MIA	1-2	0.452	2.96	9.33	4.80	1.99	0.83	0.35
DET	0-3	0.450	2.86	7.59	3.66	1.50	0.62	0.26
TB	1-2	0.441	4.66	16.57	8.21	3.29	1.33	0.54
JAC	1-2	0.431	16.33	18.94	8.60	3.35	1.31	0.52
SF	1-2	0.425	3.52	11.76	5.47	2.11	0.83	0.32
CHI	0-3	0.421	1.79	4.44	1.91	0.72	0.28	0.11

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Arizona over New England

New England's big win, combined with the Jets' loss, brought them to the top of the AFC. Arizona also won big and now has a 1 in 8 shot at winning it all.

Someone better tell Chicago the season started. They're all the way down to an 0.12% chance of winning the Superbowl after a dismal shutout at the hands of Seattle.

As for the Rams, the defense tried its best and held Pittsburgh to one touchdown, but the offense couldn't score one of their own to steal a win.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-0	0.583	75.48	86.44	71.66	40.81	22.94	12.50
NE	3-0	0.562	49.48	76.12	59.06	31.52	16.72	8.81
NYJ	2-1	0.560	26.73	56.21	39.67	20.90	11.00	5.78
CIN	3-0	0.552	57.69	74.58	57.11	29.91	15.45	7.99
DEN	3-0	0.552	61.47	75.29	58.38	30.54	15.70	8.11
CAR	3-0	0.550	49.18	77.15	57.65	30.33	15.66	8.00
BUF	2-1	0.549	20.81	49.78	33.42	17.14	8.82	4.53
PIT	2-1	0.548	32.39	49.79	34.05	17.54	8.97	4.60
GB	2-0	0.532	55.94	71.22	50.30	25.23	12.53	6.18
ATL	3-0	0.529	44.77	78.49	57.06	28.55	14.07	6.90
SEA	1-2	0.527	12.56	29.49	17.53	8.61	4.27	2.08
MIN	2-1	0.525	37.65	54.73	35.31	17.37	8.52	4.14
TEN	1-2	0.520	33.85	37.73	21.27	10.16	4.86	2.36
NYG	1-2	0.511	22.96	32.01	18.21	8.59	4.08	1.93
KC	1-1	0.500	12.85	28.87	17.30	7.97	3.67	1.70
DAL	2-1	0.500	42.70	51.30	30.50	14.09	6.52	3.01
HOU	1-2	0.490	28.74	31.93	17.03	7.63	3.43	1.56
WAS	1-2	0.490	17.53	26.43	14.73	6.64	3.01	1.36
PHI	1-2	0.488	16.81	23.86	12.92	5.81	2.63	1.18
OAK	2-1	0.485	17.42	32.98	19.42	8.65	3.85	1.73
BAL	0-3	0.475	2.83	6.05	3.05	1.33	0.58	0.26
CLE	1-2	0.470	7.09	13.29	7.23	3.14	1.36	0.59
SD	1-2	0.469	8.26	16.15	8.70	3.73	1.60	0.70
STL	1-2	0.461	8.44	20.15	10.63	4.53	1.94	0.82
NO	0-3	0.456	1.40	6.19	2.98	1.24	0.52	0.22
IND	1-2	0.454	21.07	23.42	11.15	4.59	1.90	0.80
MIA	1-2	0.452	2.98	9.03	4.66	1.93	0.81	0.34
DET	0-3	0.450	3.87	8.44	4.11	1.70	0.71	0.29
TB	1-2	0.441	4.65	16.95	8.49	3.43	1.40	0.56
JAC	1-2	0.431	16.34	18.79	8.51	3.31	1.29	0.51
SF	1-2	0.425	3.53	12.14	5.73	2.23	0.88	0.34
CHI	0-3	0.421	2.54	5.01	2.18	0.83	0.32	0.12

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Ohio State dropped 6 spots to #7, despite winning. Why? Well, all of their previous opponents lost, while all Northwestern's opponents who were active this week won. This early in the season, that can cause some wild swings.

That sort of thing gets less likely as the year goes on, for two reasons. First, since the system doesn't take future opponents into account, there are more previous opponents as the weeks go on. It's less likely to get a full slate of losses the more teams you take int account. Also, as we get into conference play, often times two previous opponents will be playing against each other, guaranteeing one opponent gets a boost while the other falls, which should be almost neutral toward the team in question.

Missouri lost to Kentucky, knocking them down to #45. I was admittedly incredulous that they were 2.5 to 3 point underdogs on Friday, but Kentucky even covered.

Once again, LSU would be #1 if their week 1 game had not been canceled and they won it. They'd be far ahead of Northwestern, too. Without going into too much detail on the guts of my system, just for brevity's sake, Northwestern has an aggregate score of 18464 (the scale of this changes each week), and Ohio State has 18240, so the difference from 1 to 7 is only 224 points. If LSU had won their game, their score would be 20600, over 2000 points higher than the current #1.

1	Northwestern	4-0
2	Utah	4-0
3	Indiana	4-0
4	Texas A&M	4-0
5	UCLA	4-0
6	Florida	4-0
7	Ohio State	4-0
8	NC State	4-0
9	Michigan State	4-0
10	TCU	4-0
11	California	4-0
12	Ole Miss	4-0
13	Georgia	4-0
14	Iowa	4-0
15	Notre Dame	4-0
16	Memphis	4-0
17	LSU	3-0
18	Oklahoma State	4-0
19	West Virginia	3-0
20	Oklahoma	3-0
21	Alabama	3-1
22	Miami (FL)	3-0
23	Michigan	3-1
24	Kentucky	3-1
25	Ohio	3-1
26	Minnesota	3-1
27	Temple	3-0
28	Navy	3-0
29	Stanford	3-1
30	Clemson	3-0
31	North Carolina	3-1
32	Penn State	3-1
33	Kansas State	3-0
34	Florida State	3-0
35	Wisconsin	3-1
36	USC	3-1
37	Baylor	3-0
38	Western Kentucky	3-1
39	Duke	3-1
40	Georgia Southern	3-1
41	Houston	3-0
42	Illinois	3-1
43	Toledo	3-0
44	Arizona	3-1
45	Missouri	3-1
46	Texas Tech	3-1
47	Mississippi State	3-1
48	Boise State	3-1
49	Syracuse	3-1
50	Marshall	3-1
51	Boston College	3-1
52	BYU	2-2
53	Colorado	3-1
54	Pittsburgh	2-1
55	Auburn	2-2
56	East Carolina	2-2
57	Oregon State	2-2
58	Georgia Tech	2-2
59	Tennessee	2-2
60	Nebraska	2-2
61	Air Force	2-1
62	Louisiana Tech	2-2
63	South Carolina	2-2
64	Oregon	2-2
65	Bowling Green	2-2
66	Tulsa	2-1
67	Hawaii	2-2
68	Wake Forest	2-2
69	Virginia Tech	2-2
70	Arizona State	2-2
71	Connecticut	2-2
72	Nevada	2-2
73	Maryland	2-2
74	Middle Tennessee	2-2
75	Buffalo	2-2
76	Washington	2-2
77	Cincinnati	2-2
78	Appalachian State	2-1
79	South Alabama	2-2
80	San Jose State	2-2
81	Ball State	2-2
82	Washington State	2-1
83	Northern Illinois	2-2
84	Old Dominion	2-2
85	Florida Intl	2-2
86	Akron	2-2
87	Rutgers	2-2
88	Southern Mississippi	2-2
89	Colorado State	2-2
90	UTEP	2-2
91	Troy	1-2
92	Charlotte	2-2
93	Iowa State	1-2
94	New Mexico	2-2
95	Virginia	1-3
96	Rice	2-2
97	Texas	1-3
98	Idaho	1-3
99	Arkansas	1-3
100	Utah State	1-2
101	Fresno State	1-3
102	San Diego State	1-3
103	Western Michigan	1-3
104	Louisville	1-3
105	Arkansas State	1-3
106	Louisiana Monroe	1-2
107	Central Michigan	1-3
108	Purdue	1-3
109	SMU	1-3
110	Tulane	1-2
111	Vanderbilt	1-3
112	Florida Atlantic	1-3
113	Texas State	1-3
114	UNLV	1-3
115	Miami (OH)	1-3
116	Kent State	1-3
117	South Florida	1-2
118	Louisiana Lafayette	1-2
119	Army	1-3
120	Georgia State	1-2
121	Massachusetts	0-3
122	Eastern Michigan	1-3
123	Kansas	0-3
124	Texas San Antonio	0-4
125	North Texas	0-3
126	UCF	0-4
127	New Mexico State	0-3
128	Wyoming	0-4

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 3, Thursday

New York Jets over Arizona

I like watching Thursday games, but I don't like what they do to my fantasy teams. I've got Eli Manning in one league and Drew Brees in another. Luckily it's not the same league, because we didn't find out until well after the Thursday night game that Drew Brees will be out this Sunday. But in the league with Eli, I left him benched in favor of Ben Roethlisberger. Yes, I'm willing to play the QB that will face my home team. I'll still root for him to get sacked 10 times, since I'd rather see a Rams win.

As for the real game, New York and Washington are both now 1-2, so nothing changed much at the top. New York doubled their chances at the Lombardi Trophy, while Washington cut theirs in half, in part because this was a slight upset based on Tuesday's numbers. The other New York team remains the favorite.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NYJ	2-0	0.558	42.57	67.17	51.39	28.04	15.23	8.25
ARI	2-0	0.546	56.98	72.70	55.87	30.10	16.08	8.44
CIN	2-0	0.544	50.82	66.72	50.63	26.81	14.08	7.42
CAR	2-0	0.541	45.99	67.55	50.27	26.77	14.14	7.34
GB	2-0	0.532	61.21	71.95	52.90	27.56	14.26	7.26
PIT	1-1	0.529	26.35	39.96	26.66	13.60	6.91	3.54
DEN	2-0	0.527	48.87	63.91	46.88	23.87	12.03	6.14
TEN	1-1	0.526	45.37	51.02	32.44	16.34	8.21	4.18
DAL	2-0	0.524	59.17	69.22	49.35	25.25	12.84	6.45
NE	2-0	0.522	31.53	57.01	40.11	20.15	10.15	5.14
ATL	2-0	0.512	36.59	62.67	43.71	21.74	10.78	5.28
NYG	1-2	0.511	18.41	30.81	18.30	9.04	4.48	2.19
MIA	1-1	0.511	14.31	30.11	19.05	9.33	4.58	2.26
BUF	1-1	0.508	11.59	28.86	18.01	8.77	4.29	2.11
KC	1-1	0.500	16.65	31.37	19.53	9.34	4.45	2.15
SD	1-1	0.500	20.06	31.97	19.85	9.49	4.52	2.19
WAS	1-2	0.490	14.80	25.96	15.13	7.15	3.39	1.59
CLE	1-1	0.484	15.49	26.60	16.16	7.50	3.47	1.62
SF	1-1	0.482	17.63	33.22	20.16	9.38	4.38	2.02
BAL	0-2	0.482	7.34	12.60	7.03	3.24	1.50	0.70
MIN	1-1	0.480	22.03	33.94	20.02	9.27	4.30	1.97
STL	1-1	0.480	18.45	32.13	19.21	8.89	4.12	1.89
JAC	1-1	0.480	29.74	37.19	21.83	9.96	4.54	2.10
SEA	0-2	0.478	6.95	14.17	7.87	3.63	1.68	0.77
OAK	1-1	0.475	14.42	24.76	14.53	6.59	2.98	1.37
DET	0-2	0.474	9.41	17.13	9.48	4.33	1.98	0.90
PHI	0-2	0.473	7.62	13.65	7.33	3.34	1.53	0.69
HOU	0-2	0.472	14.53	18.12	9.68	4.35	1.95	0.89
NO	0-2	0.466	4.93	12.25	6.61	2.96	1.33	0.59
TB	1-1	0.465	12.50	28.72	16.59	7.42	3.32	1.47
CHI	0-2	0.458	7.35	13.93	7.20	3.16	1.40	0.61
IND	0-2	0.448	10.35	12.64	6.21	2.63	1.12	0.48

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

eBay Wins #194

I'm still reorganizing and reshuffling my eBay wins. I wasn't really ready to restart with the oldest cards. So, yet again, I'm going backwards, this time by 1 year to 1981. At this point I'm just going to throw the rules out the window and post whatever's handy while I'm in process of sorting.

1981 Donruss #153 Dick Ruthven

This card's not quite as off-center as my scanner would have you believe, but it's also not as sharp as my cropping would lead you to believe, either. Before this Dick Ruthven, I only had 2 cards in 1981 Donruss, Dane Iorg and Red Schoendienst, both of them Cardinals.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3369
Total Spent	$52.17
Per Card	1.549 cents
Change	0 cents

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Final

New York Jets over Arizona

Well, the Jets and Indianapolis took the outside positions after the Jets held them to just 7 points. So...cheer up, Chicago? That gives the Jets the favorite spot in the AFC, and also puts them ahead of the still-favored NFC's Arizona. It's still very early in the season, of course. The only other piece of analysis I have today is that the Giants are now below 1% to win it all since they will have to face the now-stronger Jets, so all 0-2 teams are now under 1%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NYJ	2-0	0.558	42.45	67.01	51.25	27.96	15.18	8.21
ARI	2-0	0.546	56.87	72.45	55.42	29.79	15.88	8.33
CIN	2-0	0.544	50.81	66.71	50.63	26.81	14.08	7.41
CAR	2-0	0.541	46.15	67.21	49.80	26.45	13.94	7.24
GB	2-0	0.532	61.15	71.76	52.45	27.25	14.07	7.17
PIT	1-1	0.529	26.35	39.97	26.67	13.59	6.91	3.53
DEN	2-0	0.527	48.86	63.91	46.89	23.87	12.04	6.13
TEN	1-1	0.525	45.36	51.01	32.43	16.34	8.21	4.17
DAL	2-0	0.524	54.58	67.05	47.43	24.22	12.30	6.18
NE	2-0	0.522	31.43	56.85	39.97	20.09	10.12	5.11
WAS	1-1	0.521	29.39	45.70	29.85	15.08	7.61	3.80
ATL	2-0	0.512	36.31	61.66	42.71	21.20	10.49	5.14
MIA	1-1	0.511	14.57	30.52	19.34	9.47	4.65	2.29
BUF	1-1	0.508	11.55	28.72	17.92	8.73	4.26	2.09
KC	1-1	0.500	16.66	31.38	19.54	9.35	4.46	2.15
SD	1-1	0.500	20.06	31.97	19.86	9.50	4.53	2.19
NYG	0-2	0.490	9.08	16.93	9.42	4.44	2.10	0.99
CLE	1-1	0.484	15.49	26.60	16.16	7.50	3.47	1.62
SF	1-1	0.483	17.79	33.27	20.12	9.35	4.35	2.00
BAL	0-2	0.482	7.35	12.61	7.04	3.25	1.50	0.70
MIN	1-1	0.480	22.26	34.03	19.97	9.23	4.27	1.96
STL	1-1	0.480	18.41	31.86	18.93	8.74	4.04	1.85
JAC	1-1	0.480	29.74	37.20	21.84	9.97	4.55	2.10
SEA	0-2	0.478	6.93	14.04	7.74	3.56	1.65	0.75
OAK	1-1	0.475	14.42	24.76	14.54	6.60	2.99	1.37
DET	0-2	0.474	9.40	16.99	9.35	4.26	1.95	0.88
PHI	0-2	0.473	6.94	13.01	6.98	3.18	1.45	0.66
HOU	0-2	0.472	14.54	18.13	9.69	4.35	1.95	0.89
NO	0-2	0.466	4.96	12.08	6.48	2.90	1.30	0.58
TB	1-1	0.465	12.57	28.39	16.33	7.28	3.26	1.45
CHI	0-2	0.458	7.20	13.58	7.00	3.07	1.35	0.59
IND	0-2	0.448	10.36	12.64	6.21	2.63	1.12	0.48

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Arizona over Cincinnati

For fans around my age, those two teams are represent the prototypical "bad" teams, and in my mind it would make for a bad Superbowl. In reality, in any given year a team with 12-18 wins going into the big game is obviously a good team that year.

Several teams have dropped below a 1% chance of being the champion, and all of them are 0-2. The Giants are also 0-2 but juuust above 1% likely to win it all. Thanks to their loss to Arizona, Chicago has fallen all the way to the bottom by strength, and is officially the worse team in the league according to me. Note that recent weeks are not weighted more heavily in my system; it doesn't know when games take place. Chicago and Arizona just happen to now have the best and worst points scored to allowed ratios, respectively.

The Rams followed up their surprising win at home with probably a more surprising loss at Washington. We would have been happy to start 1-1 before the season began, but everyone would have expected that loss to come against the defending NFC Champions.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	2-0	0.546	56.91	72.48	55.45	29.80	15.89	8.42
CIN	2-0	0.544	51.01	67.41	51.50	27.52	14.66	7.71
CAR	2-0	0.541	46.17	66.93	49.52	26.30	13.87	7.28
GB	2-0	0.532	61.19	71.79	52.49	27.28	14.08	7.26
NYJ	1-0	0.529	30.28	50.91	36.07	18.62	9.58	4.90
PIT	1-1	0.529	26.08	40.23	26.97	13.88	7.14	3.65
DEN	2-0	0.527	48.43	64.03	47.28	24.31	12.42	6.32
TEN	1-1	0.526	41.85	48.72	31.67	16.12	8.19	4.16
DAL	2-0	0.524	54.59	67.31	47.75	24.39	12.38	6.28
NE	2-0	0.522	37.41	58.94	42.42	21.61	10.96	5.54
WAS	1-1	0.521	29.40	46.04	30.13	15.22	7.67	3.87
ATL	2-0	0.512	36.33	61.38	42.47	21.08	10.43	5.17
MIA	1-1	0.511	17.84	32.47	20.88	10.34	5.12	2.52
BUF	1-1	0.508	14.47	31.12	19.77	9.74	4.80	2.36
KC	1-1	0.500	16.72	32.03	20.05	9.69	4.68	2.26
SD	1-1	0.500	20.15	32.57	20.42	9.87	4.76	2.30
NYG	0-2	0.490	9.07	17.12	9.54	4.50	2.13	1.01
CLE	1-1	0.484	15.53	27.16	16.62	7.79	3.65	1.71
SF	1-1	0.482	17.77	33.26	20.11	9.34	4.34	2.03
BAL	0-2	0.482	7.37	12.91	7.27	3.39	1.59	0.74
MIN	1-1	0.480	22.24	34.02	19.96	9.22	4.26	1.98
STL	1-1	0.480	18.40	31.85	18.92	8.73	4.04	1.87
JAC	1-1	0.480	27.12	35.50	21.29	9.83	4.53	2.09
SEA	0-2	0.478	6.92	14.03	7.74	3.56	1.65	0.76
IND	0-1	0.476	18.00	23.37	13.31	6.10	2.80	1.29
OAK	1-1	0.475	14.70	25.63	15.19	6.96	3.19	1.46
DET	0-2	0.474	9.38	16.98	9.34	4.25	1.94	0.89
PHI	0-2	0.473	6.94	13.18	7.07	3.22	1.47	0.67
HOU	0-2	0.472	13.03	17.01	9.30	4.22	1.92	0.87
NO	0-2	0.466	4.96	11.92	6.39	2.86	1.28	0.58
TB	1-1	0.465	12.54	28.10	16.13	7.20	3.22	1.44
CHI	0-2	0.458	7.19	13.58	7.00	3.06	1.35	0.59

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

3 games into the season, I'm willing to say Ohio State has earned the #1 spot they've held in the real polls so far this year. There are still 28 teams at 3-0, so it's possible even with a win next week they could drop back again, but as the season wears on that's less and less likely, as the overall strength of schedule becomes closer to finalized. Michigan State at #3 also approximately agrees with the polls, but Iowa and Texas A&M are interlopers here.

Missouri is now up to #11, with an ugly win against Connecticut. But in my system, a win is a win, and Connecticut was previously ranked ahead of Missouri by one slot.

I'll probably track this until they lose a game, but LSU would actually be #1 in my rankings if they had played and won against McNeese State in week 1, a game that was canceled for weather. The effects are starting to ripple out to the SEC, too. Mississippi State would jump from #58 to #53 and Auburn would rise from #41 to #36. All other teams stay in place, unless they were leapfrogged by one of those three.

1	Ohio State	3-0
2	Iowa	3-0
3	Michigan State	3-0
4	Texas A&M	3-0
5	Ohio	3-0
6	Oklahoma	3-0
7	Ole Miss	3-0
8	Notre Dame	3-0
9	Utah	3-0
10	Temple	3-0
11	Missouri	3-0
12	NC State	3-0
13	Indiana	3-0
14	Northwestern	3-0
15	UCLA	3-0
16	Florida State	3-0
17	Kansas State	3-0
18	Miami (FL)	3-0
19	Georgia	3-0
20	Florida	3-0
21	California	3-0
22	TCU	3-0
23	Arizona	3-0
24	Syracuse	3-0
25	Memphis	3-0
26	Clemson	3-0
27	Texas Tech	3-0
28	Oklahoma State	3-0
29	Alabama	2-1
30	LSU	2-0
31	West Virginia	2-0
32	BYU	2-1
33	Pittsburgh	2-1
34	Georgia Southern	2-1
35	Toledo	2-0
36	North Carolina	2-1
37	Baylor	2-0
38	Boise State	2-1
39	Tennessee	2-1
40	Penn State	2-1
41	Auburn	2-1
42	Virginia Tech	2-1
43	Kentucky	2-1
44	Wisconsin	2-1
45	Michigan	2-1
46	Western Kentucky	2-1
47	Georgia Tech	2-1
48	Connecticut	2-1
49	USC	2-1
50	Stanford	2-1
51	Oregon	2-1
52	Maryland	2-1
53	Arizona State	2-1
54	Middle Tennessee	2-1
55	Hawaii	2-1
56	Ball State	2-1
57	Washington	2-1
58	Mississippi State	2-1
59	Cincinnati	2-1
60	Oregon State	2-1
61	Duke	2-1
62	Marshall	2-1
63	Illinois	2-1
64	Houston	2-0
65	Minnesota	2-1
66	Navy	2-0
67	Charlotte	2-1
68	Air Force	2-1
69	Tulsa	2-1
70	Northern Illinois	2-1
71	Wake Forest	2-1
72	South Alabama	2-1
73	Southern Mississippi	2-1
74	Buffalo	2-1
75	Colorado	2-1
76	Florida Intl	2-1
77	Old Dominion	2-1
78	Washington State	2-1
79	Boston College	2-1
80	Rice	2-1
81	South Carolina	1-2
82	Iowa State	1-2
83	Bowling Green	1-2
84	Nebraska	1-2
85	Texas	1-2
86	Troy	1-2
87	Purdue	1-2
88	East Carolina	1-2
89	Louisiana Tech	1-2
90	Texas State	1-2
91	Fresno State	1-2
92	Virginia	1-2
93	Idaho	1-2
94	Utah State	1-2
95	Arkansas State	1-2
96	Western Michigan	1-2
97	Central Michigan	1-2
98	Arkansas	1-2
99	Miami (OH)	1-2
100	San Diego State	1-2
101	Louisiana Monroe	1-1
102	Nevada	1-2
103	Appalachian State	1-1
104	Louisiana Lafayette	1-1
105	SMU	1-2
106	Akron	1-2
107	Vanderbilt	1-2
108	South Florida	1-2
109	San Jose State	1-2
110	Tulane	1-2
111	Georgia State	1-2
112	Rutgers	1-2
113	New Mexico	1-2
114	Kent State	1-2
115	Eastern Michigan	1-2
116	Colorado State	1-2
117	UTEP	1-2
118	Texas San Antonio	0-3
119	Kansas	0-2
120	Massachusetts	0-2
121	Louisville	0-3
122	UNLV	0-3
123	Florida Atlantic	0-3
124	Army	0-3
125	North Texas	0-2
126	UCF	0-3
127	Wyoming	0-3
128	New Mexico State	0-3

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Thursday

San Francisco over Denver

This particular point in the season is almost always the most misleading, when 2 teams have played their second game and everyone else has played one. I should really fix this, and I can think of how to do it. See, I calculate a team's strength based on points scored and allowed, then regress it back to .500 by an amount based on how early in the season it is. That keeps the uncertainty high until at least a few weeks in. My means of regression is based on the number of games the team has played. That means Denver (and KC, but they're already exactly at .500 because they've scored and allowed the same number of points) only get regressed 14/16 of the way to .500, and every other team gets regressed 15/16 of the way.

Basically, Denver's raw score before regressing is roughly equivalent to the other teams that are at .513, not .526, so more along the lines of Green Bay and New England, and actually lower than Buffalo and Miami within the AFC. They are 2-0, and have the division lead, but they perhaps shouldn't be as favored in the rest of their games as they are, which would lower their playoff and conference championship odds. The simple way to fix this would be to make the divisor not 16 but 256, and regress everyone based on the total number of games that have taken place in the league as a whole. This would even out the bumps and dips teams get for playing Thursday games, having late or early byes, or not playing until Monday, and by the time bye weeks are over, every week's final results would be the same as the current method.

TL;DR: Ignore my numbers today; they're garbage! But after Monday I'll be back to telling you exactly who's going to win this thing.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	1-0	0.531	33.26	54.71	39.73	21.02	11.12	5.75
NYJ	1-0	0.529	27.49	49.62	34.97	18.14	9.41	4.92
TEN	1-0	0.529	49.84	58.54	41.05	21.27	10.98	5.74
CIN	1-0	0.528	48.20	57.68	40.73	21.04	10.83	5.65
DEN	2-0	0.526	46.44	64.17	47.67	24.66	12.68	6.60
CAR	1-0	0.526	40.37	55.63	40.45	21.18	11.04	5.66
BUF	1-0	0.524	25.37	46.66	32.38	16.59	8.51	4.40
MIA	1-0	0.521	24.88	44.88	30.90	15.73	8.01	4.12
ARI	1-0	0.520	29.33	51.01	36.03	18.58	9.60	4.86
GB	1-0	0.513	46.03	56.33	39.20	19.96	10.12	5.05
NE	1-0	0.513	22.26	43.17	29.22	14.62	7.33	3.71
SD	1-0	0.508	28.20	44.83	30.57	15.14	7.47	3.75
STL	1-0	0.504	27.08	47.47	32.53	16.23	8.11	3.98
ATL	1-0	0.504	32.87	49.52	34.37	17.14	8.53	4.18
DAL	1-0	0.502	41.73	51.93	35.19	17.46	8.64	4.22
KC	1-1	0.500	15.74	32.04	20.24	9.85	4.79	2.37
NYG	0-1	0.498	19.00	28.54	17.75	8.73	4.29	2.08
PHI	0-1	0.496	21.28	29.25	18.02	8.83	4.32	2.09
SEA	0-1	0.496	10.34	23.56	14.65	7.19	3.53	1.70
DET	0-1	0.492	21.06	30.42	18.93	9.20	4.47	2.14
PIT	0-1	0.487	18.96	25.43	15.07	7.13	3.37	1.62
CHI	0-1	0.487	17.14	26.73	16.19	7.78	3.73	1.77
HOU	0-1	0.487	18.28	24.87	14.67	6.94	3.28	1.58
BAL	0-1	0.484	17.76	24.34	14.18	6.66	3.13	1.49
NO	0-1	0.480	14.21	23.55	14.41	6.83	3.24	1.51
WAS	0-1	0.479	17.99	26.10	15.79	7.46	3.52	1.64
IND	0-1	0.476	15.99	22.28	12.82	5.93	2.74	1.29
JAC	0-1	0.474	15.89	23.00	13.35	6.14	2.82	1.32
OAK	0-1	0.472	9.62	18.03	10.53	4.84	2.22	1.03
TB	0-1	0.471	12.56	22.63	13.66	6.35	2.95	1.35
CLE	0-1	0.471	15.08	20.47	11.65	5.33	2.43	1.13
MIN	0-1	0.469	15.77	22.62	13.10	6.06	2.80	1.28

[Week 1]

My First Minor League Autograph

I should have waited and posted this autographed ball with the last two, but I had already written that post by the time I was getting this ball. This time I got to meet a true Cardinals prospect, who hasn't even been above AA yet, Alex Reyes. Hopefully he'll make it to the big team and not get traded away, which is always a possibility, especially when if need an extra arm or bat at the trade deadline next year.

Alex Reyes

It's not the most legible signature, but then, neither is mine when I sign a check.

With the Cardinals in the heat of a pennant race, even a AA guy can draw a crowd. I was 62nd in line, if the line ticket numbers are to be believed. I'm sure I'll take a bit more interest in the minor league news for the next year or two as Reyes rises through the system, and eventually gets a September callup.

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 1

San Francisco over Tennessee

Week 1 finally finished with the now-standard Monday Night double header, and I can start prognosticating on who's going to lift the Lombardi trophy in February.  The NFL dropped the Roman numerals this year, so I guess I will too. I'm not putting any tacky gold accents on these posts though. Not yet anyway.

Here's a quick rundown taken from last year's introductory post.

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

As always, the team with the biggest week 1 win, as measured by (points for)/(total game points) is currently the strongest, and generally is the favorite to win it all. This year that honor goes to San Francisco, and the opposite position goes to their opponent, Minnesota. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean much this early in the year, but it's a good start. I'd use the example that Minnesota was the projected champ after week 1 last year, but there were quite the extenuating circumstances that led to their fall to 7-9. Tennessee is the most likely team to win the AFC, thus they are projected to make the Superbowl over the slightly stronger Jets. That's because Tennessee is currently 1 game ahead of everyone else in the AFC South division, while everyone in the Jets' AFC East is 1-0.

Last year, St. Louis was that bottom team in week 1, losing to Minnesota, and I called for them to put in Austin Davis or make a crazy trade for a proven quarterback. They went with option 2, trading starter for starter and got Nick Foles for Sam Bradford. I've seen a few non-homer media projections of 9-7 and even 10-6 for a wildcard slot, so I'm hoping this year the pundits know what they are talking about. After beating Seattle, the football mood in St. Louis is as though we're already in the playoffs.

Just for good measure, I ran my simulations 1 billion times, taking almost 10 hours of CPU time (they get faster as the year goes on and fewer games have to be simulated)...and then found out my schedule was wrong. I had Green Bay playing Atlanta in week 16, instead of Arizona, which was probably a result of me trying to auto-complete the text entry to finish the schedule more quickly. So here I have a mere 100 million runs, because I didn't have another 10 hours to burn.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	1-0	0.531	33.26	54.72	39.74	21.03	11.13	5.77
NYJ	1-0	0.529	27.51	49.58	35.00	18.18	9.45	4.94
TEN	1-0	0.529	49.78	58.48	41.10	21.32	11.03	5.77
CIN	1-0	0.528	48.23	57.65	40.77	21.10	10.88	5.67
CAR	1-0	0.526	40.36	55.63	40.45	21.19	11.04	5.67
BUF	1-0	0.524	25.23	46.49	32.30	16.58	8.52	4.41
MIA	1-0	0.521	24.89	44.83	30.93	15.77	8.05	4.14
ARI	1-0	0.519	29.32	51.00	36.02	18.57	9.59	4.86
DEN	1-0	0.516	31.65	49.18	34.50	17.44	8.77	4.47
KC	1-0	0.513	29.76	47.50	33.02	16.59	8.30	4.21
GB	1-0	0.513	46.01	56.29	39.16	19.93	10.11	5.06
NE	1-0	0.513	22.37	43.19	29.29	14.68	7.37	3.73
SD	1-0	0.508	28.75	44.78	30.66	15.21	7.52	3.77
STL	1-0	0.504	27.08	47.46	32.52	16.22	8.11	3.99
ATL	1-0	0.504	32.86	49.52	34.37	17.14	8.53	4.19
DAL	1-0	0.502	41.70	51.91	35.19	17.47	8.64	4.23
NYG	0-1	0.498	19.01	28.55	17.77	8.75	4.30	2.09
PHI	0-1	0.496	21.28	29.27	18.03	8.83	4.32	2.09
SEA	0-1	0.496	10.34	23.58	14.66	7.19	3.53	1.71
DET	0-1	0.492	21.07	30.41	18.92	9.20	4.46	2.14
PIT	0-1	0.487	18.99	25.42	15.09	7.16	3.39	1.63
CHI	0-1	0.487	17.15	26.73	16.20	7.77	3.73	1.77
HOU	0-1	0.487	18.28	24.87	14.68	6.96	3.30	1.59
BAL	0-1	0.484	17.69	24.21	14.19	6.68	3.14	1.50
NO	0-1	0.481	14.21	23.56	14.42	6.84	3.24	1.52
WAS	0-1	0.479	18.01	26.12	15.80	7.47	3.52	1.65
IND	0-1	0.476	16.07	22.35	12.86	5.96	2.76	1.30
JAC	0-1	0.474	15.87	22.96	13.36	6.16	2.84	1.33
OAK	0-1	0.472	9.84	18.03	10.57	4.86	2.23	1.04
TB	0-1	0.471	12.56	22.64	13.67	6.36	2.95	1.35
CLE	0-1	0.471	15.09	20.46	11.66	5.34	2.45	1.14
MIN	0-1	0.469	15.77	22.62	13.09	6.05	2.79	1.27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

In the early going, Texas A&M has taken over the #1 spot in my rankings. I swear I don't have an SEC bias built in to my system. BYU's two big wins have moved them up to the #2 spot, with NC State and Temple rounding out the playoff. Of course, with 48 2-0 teams, those playoff spots are still very much up for grabs.

My favorite team, Missouri, is down at #30, but still among the 2-0 teams that are all very close to each other at the top.

A few teams changed names on ESPN's site this year, so a few FBS teams were missing after I filtered the list last week. I may go back and fix that. They were subtle changes like Southern Miss to Southern Mississippi, no longer hyphenating the two Louisiana schools, and North Carolina State now abbreviated. But this week we have the first full 128 team rankings anyway, with LSU finally on the board. Speaking of LSU, with a win last week against McNeese State, they would have been the #2 team right now.

1	Texas A&M	2-0
2	BYU	2-0
3	NC State	2-0
4	Temple	2-0
5	Ohio State	2-0
6	Kentucky	2-0
7	Florida State	2-0
8	Iowa	2-0
9	Alabama	2-0
10	Utah	2-0
11	Ole Miss	2-0
12	Oklahoma	2-0
13	Ohio	2-0
14	Notre Dame	2-0
15	Clemson	2-0
16	Western Kentucky	2-0
17	TCU	2-0
18	Baylor	2-0
19	Auburn	2-0
20	Memphis	2-0
21	Illinois	2-0
22	West Virginia	2-0
23	Florida	2-0
24	Georgia	2-0
25	California	2-0
26	Air Force	2-0
27	Miami (FL)	2-0
28	Pittsburgh	2-0
29	Connecticut	2-0
30	Missouri	2-0
31	Duke	2-0
32	Georgia Tech	2-0
33	Syracuse	2-0
34	Northern Illinois	2-0
T-35	Kansas State	2-0
T-35	Arizona	2-0
37	Tulsa	2-0
38	Oklahoma State	2-0
39	USC	2-0
40	UCLA	2-0
T-41	Charlotte	2-0
T-41	Northwestern	2-0
43	Michigan State	2-0
44	Old Dominion	2-0
45	Indiana	2-0
46	Boston College	2-0
47	Houston	2-0
48	Texas Tech	2-0
49	Tennessee	1-1
50	Arizona State	1-1
51	Troy	1-1
52	Marshall	1-1
53	East Carolina	1-1
54	Boise State	1-1
55	LSU	1-0
56	Penn State	1-1
57	South Carolina	1-1
58	Texas State	1-1
59	Bowling Green	1-1
60	Hawaii	1-1
61	Ball State	1-1
62	Toledo	1-0
63	Texas	1-1
64	Wisconsin	1-1
65	Washington State	1-1
66	Minnesota	1-1
67	Purdue	1-1
68	Nebraska	1-1
69	Iowa State	1-1
70	Michigan	1-1
71	San Diego State	1-1
72	Louisiana Tech	1-1
73	San Jose State	1-1
74	Wake Forest	1-1
75	Maryland	1-1
76	Washington	1-1
77	Mississippi State	1-1
78	Buffalo	1-1
T-79	North Carolina	1-1
T-79	Cincinnati	1-1
81	Fresno State	1-1
82	Virginia Tech	1-1
83	SMU	1-1
84	Louisiana Lafayette	1-1
85	Louisiana Monroe	1-1
86	South Florida	1-1
87	Utah State	1-1
88	Middle Tennessee	1-1
89	Appalachian State	1-1
90	Georgia Southern	1-1
91	Navy	1-0
92	Georgia State	1-1
93	Kent State	1-1
94	Eastern Michigan	1-1
95	Central Michigan	1-1
96	Nevada	1-1
97	Colorado	1-1
98	New Mexico	1-1
99	Rice	1-1
100	Stanford	1-1
101	Florida Intl	1-1
102	Oregon	1-1
103	Colorado State	1-1
104	Arkansas	1-1
105	Miami (OH)	1-1
106	Rutgers	1-1
107	South Alabama	1-1
108	Oregon State	1-1
109	Southern Mississippi	1-1
110	Vanderbilt	0-2
111	Akron	0-2
112	Idaho	0-2
113	Virginia	0-2
114	Florida Atlantic	0-2
115	Tulane	0-2
116	Texas San Antonio	0-2
117	Arkansas State	0-2
T-118	Louisville	0-2
T-118	Kansas	0-2
120	UNLV	0-2
121	North Texas	0-1
122	Massachusetts	0-1
123	New Mexico State	0-2
124	Western Michigan	0-2
125	Wyoming	0-2
126	Army	0-2
127	UTEP	0-2
128	UCF	0-2

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

eBay Wins #193

Today's eBay lot involved one card I ordered, and two sent along as either a bonus or insurance against dinging the purchased card.

1992 Topps #139 Jeff Innis
1992 Topps #143 Paul Gibson
1996 Topps #167 Toby Wright

I've only got a few Rams cards in my collection, but I figured for a penny I'd go ahead and bid on this Toby Wright card that was mistakenly put into the "Baseball Cards" section of eBay.

I'm surprised the seller bothered with the Jeff Innis and Paul Gibson packing material cards given the price, but I'm happy to have them. They're even in good shape, unlike some dinged, bent, and creased late 80s cards I've seen used for that purpose. A full 1992 Topps factory set was one of the first big purchases I ever made when I started collecting, so these two will wind up in my duplicates list for trade.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3368
Total Spent	$52.16
Per Card	1.549 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

Labor Day Autographs

Thanks to a last second cancellation, a friend of mine had a spare ticket to the Cardinals game versus the Cubs on Labor Day. It was supposed to be a hot day, but the weather turned a bit overcast and we were shaded in our 2nd-row-from-the-top seats for most of the game. But even with the nice weather, the game went bad quickly, with the Cardinals surrendering 8 runs in the first three innings. I did get to see every Cardinals position player get into the game, and a great 5-4-3 double play, from our backup catcher (Tony Cruz) playing third, to our backup 1B/3B (Mark Reynolds) playing second (for the 5th time ever!), to our trade deadline pickup (Brandon Moss) at first.

But the day got better for me, as I traveled to a local mall to an autograph signing featuring Stephen Piscotty and Greg Garcia that evening.

Stephen Piscotty 55
35 Greg Garcia

Piscotty's been heralded as the second coming of Albert Pujols for the last year, so the group there to see him was quite large. There's lots of excitement in St. Louis for him and his future. Garcia didn't have nearly as many people there for his autograph, and in fact since I was near the end of the line with a ticket for each, after about 15 minutes they actually came and got me and bumped me up to the front of the shared line so Greg could get finished.

This brings my autographed ball count up to 16. Soon I'm going to have start organizing them a little better than just stacking them on my shelf.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

Yes, it's that time of year again, when the college football madness begins.

What follows is an explanation mostly copied from 2014's week 1 post.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team.  I then filter the final results to only the 128 FBS schools.

In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!

This year the FBS lost a team, and gained a team. You've probably heard about the controversy around UAB's program, but they're supposed to be back in 2017. Joining the fray to round out the 128 FBS teams is UNC-Charlotte.

I found one bug in my software this year, which didn't affect the final rankings in 2014, but could have jostled some teams around in the early weeks. If you wagered anything based on my rankings, my apologies. I only found it because there's one team, Montana, that has played two games this year, while all others have only played one, with North Dakota State enjoying a bye week after their pre-week 1 matchup. Sorting is hard when you roll your own algorithm like an idiot.

Let's get to the silliest rankings of the year, week 1!

1	Oklahoma State	1-0
1	Wake Forest	1-0
1	Ball State	1-0
1	Georgia Tech	1-0
1	Connecticut	1-0
1	Western Kentucky	1-0
1	Utah	1-0
1	TCU	1-0
1	Ohio	1-0
1	Utah State	1-0
1	Duke	1-0
1	Arizona	1-0
1	Nevada	1-0
1	San Jose State	1-0
1	Fresno State	1-0
1	Hawaii	1-0
1	Charlotte	1-0
1	Michigan State	1-0
1	Baylor	1-0
1	Syracuse	1-0
1	Oregon State	1-0
1	Boise State	1-0
1	Georgia	1-0
1	Ole Miss	1-0
1	Northwestern	1-0
1	Navy	1-0
1	Rutgers	1-0
1	Iowa	1-0
1	Maryland	1-0
1	Clemson	1-0
1	Pittsburgh	1-0
1	Boston College	1-0
1	Illinois	1-0
1	Air Force	1-0
1	Buffalo	1-0
1	Miami (OH)	1-0
1	Appalachian State	1-0
1	Arkansas	1-0
1	Auburn	1-0
1	UCLA	1-0
1	Texas Tech	1-0
1	BYU	1-0
1	Old Dominion	1-0
1	Temple	1-0
1	Tulsa	1-0
1	Indiana	1-0
1	Missouri	1-0
1	Colorado State	1-0
1	Tennessee	1-0
1	Rice	1-0
1	California	1-0
1	Miami (FL)	1-0
1	East Carolina	1-0
1	South Alabama	1-0
1	South Florida	1-0
1	Memphis	1-0
1	Louisiana Tech	1-0
1	Middle Tennessee	1-0
1	Oklahoma	1-0
1	Texas A&M	1-0
1	Kentucky	1-0
1	Kansas State	1-0
1	Notre Dame	1-0
1	West Virginia	1-0
1	Florida	1-0
1	Northern Illinois	1-0
1	San Diego State	1-0
1	Alabama	1-0
1	Oregon	1-0
1	Iowa State	1-0
1	Houston	1-0
1	New Mexico	1-0
1	Cincinnati	1-0
1	Florida State	1-0
1	Mississippi State	1-0
1	USC	1-0
1	Marshall	1-0
1	Ohio State	1-0
1	South Carolina	1-0
80	Troy	0-1
80	Vanderbilt	0-1
80	North Carolina	0-1
80	Kansas	0-1
80	Akron	0-1
80	Arizona State	0-1
80	Michigan	0-1
80	Texas	0-1
80	Colorado	0-1
80	Georgia Southern	0-1
80	New Mexico State	0-1
80	UNLV	0-1
80	Washington State	0-1
80	Georgia State	0-1
80	Wisconsin	0-1
80	Kent State	0-1
80	Minnesota	0-1
80	Western Michigan	0-1
80	Central Michigan	0-1
80	Texas State	0-1
80	SMU	0-1
80	Arkansas State	0-1
80	Purdue	0-1
80	Idaho	0-1
80	Virginia Tech	0-1
80	UTEP	0-1
80	Louisville	0-1
80	Virginia	0-1
80	Army	0-1
80	Nebraska	0-1
80	Eastern Michigan	0-1
80	UCF	0-1
80	Penn State	0-1
80	Washington	0-1
80	Florida Atlantic	0-1
80	Tulane	0-1
80	Bowling Green	0-1
80	Wyoming	0-1
80	Stanford	0-1

eBay Wins #192

If you keep tabs on my ramblings here - and hopefully you've got something better than that to do - you'll notice I've gone the wrong direction here. In my last eBay post I began posting the oldest of the penny cards I thought I had, but it turns out there was another stack of them.

1982 Topps #471 Royals Future Stars: Hammaker/Jones/Motley

Thus, I have this glorious 1982 with the Royals in their powder blues. Despite the Future Stars designation, out of these three, only Atlee Hammaker made an All-Star game, in 1983.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3365
Total Spent	$52.15
Per Card	1.55 cents
Change	0 cents

Zistle Trade #19

With today's trade I've filled in 7 more Cardinals cards in my collection, even though only one is actually pictured in uniform. I think I added the Fleer cards to my want list recently, possibly when I got the last of the uniformed Cardinals I needed in another trade. I should really just put the full sets from junk wax years on my list to make things easier, and pick and choose from the more rare sets.

1990 Donruss #697 Mark McGwire
1990 Fleer
#7 Mike Gallego
#67 Ken Oberkfell
#77 Pat Borders
#84 Tom Henke
#207 Gregg Jefferies
1993 Studio #90 Gregg Jefferies

The Donruss card is the error version of Mark McGwire's All-Star card. As you may know, some of them were put out with a subtle error, where the stats on the back are for All-Star games, but the stats header says "Recent Major League Performance". Corrected versions were issued, and I have so many cards from the set, I decided I'd try to complete a full base set, with all versions of the error cards included.

eBay Wins #191

I've looped back around to old cards with this eBay post. Perhaps a quick explanation is in order.

I won many eBay auctions for penny cards, which I was detailing one lot at a time. Eventually, I was having trouble keeping track, so I threw every penny card into the same box, and sorted it by year and set. The ones that cost different amounts were kept separate so they could be accounted for properly. Then, rather that posting an auction win at a time, I just went through the penny cards one set at a time. I started with the oldest cards, and added new wins to the box as they came in, if they were newer than my most recent eBay post. So now, I'm back to the ones that came in just a bit too late to make the last post of the set, such as these 1986s that came in some time after eBay Wins #123. The stack is much shorter now, so it shouldn't take me over a year to get back to present day.

1986 Topps
#127 Jack Howell
#197 Enos Cabell

Neither of these guys were ever Cardinals, but the cards are both new to my collection, which is a high enough bar to make any penny card worth it. These cards bring my 1986 set up to 129 unique cards.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3364
Total Spent	$52.14
Per Card	1.55 cents
Change	0 cents