Once again I've put together the strengths of each team based on runs scored and allowed, and done the math on each team's odds of advancing to each round of the playoffs. The length of the series is taken into account as well. Once I found out we'd have a play-in for the play-in game, I had to modify my software a bit, but the numbers still appear to sum up correctly, so I'll call it good.
I do have one disclaimer, though. Cleveland shows a lower strength than Texas. However, if Texas and Tampa Bay burn their #1 starters on the pre-play-in play-in, Cleveland's chances should logically improve. These percentages really reflect an average matchup chance, and get more accurate the longer a series is. But a Cleveland-Texas matchup would feature Cleveland's best against Texas's second best, which may or may not tip the scales for Cleveland. Likewise, Boston and St. Louis's chances should be higher, because they'll both have at least a 1-starter advantage over their wildcard opponent.
But in the end, any team can beat any other team in a 1-game playoff. The 100-loss Miami Marlins can even no-hit the playoff-bound Detroit Tigers.