Your Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over San Francisco.

Perhaps I should explain.  For a long time, I've followed sportsclubstats for a statistical view of the Cardinals chances at making the playoffs.  They basically determine a strength for each team, and simulate the remainder of the season lots of times, then aggregate the results and see what percentage of the simulations resulted in a team making the playoffs.  There are lots of leagues covered, including the NFL.

Unfortunately, the playoffs are not simulated, so I set out to write my own software.  I use a similar formula as sportsclubstats, based on points scored and points allowed, to determine team strength.  Then I simulate the remaining games of the season, run the NFL's complex tiebreakers, and simulate the 11 playoffs games, at least 10 million times.  My software generates a nice table with the chances of a team going anywhere from 0-16 to 16-0, but that table is too wide for blogger, so I might have to flip the axes and split it up by division or something.

Following is the easy format for now.  The columns represent the chances of winning the division, making the playoffs (so, winning the division OR getting a wildcard berth), winning in the Wildcard Round (which includes getting a first round bye), winning in the conference semifinals, winning the conference championship, and winning the Superbowl.  The teams are sorted by strength, so as you can see, even though Buffalo is the strongest team, they face a tougher schedule than Baltimore, and those diminished playoff chances result in Baltimore getting more Superbowl wins per simulation.  I typically say the Superbowl favorite is the one with the highest number in the Champ column, and the Superbowl loser is the team from the opposing conference with the highest value in the Semi column.

Team	Rec	Div	Playoffs	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	1-0	33.67	51.15	36.44	19.02	9.90	5.17
BAL	1-0	41.96	57.45	40.94	21.36	11.11	5.80
HOU	1-0	43.39	57.05	40.22	20.96	10.90	5.68
CHI	1-0	32.94	52.57	38.25	19.99	10.40	5.36
PHI	1-0	37.31	54.55	39.23	20.46	10.66	5.48
WAS	1-0	38.52	55.23	39.43	20.46	10.59	5.42
SF	1-0	41.40	58.02	41.82	21.66	11.18	5.72
CIN	1-0	37.35	53.20	36.76	18.68	9.48	4.83
NE	1-0	32.31	49.29	34.21	17.39	8.82	4.50
SD	1-0	36.85	50.63	34.78	17.50	8.78	4.44
DET	1-0	28.22	47.40	33.39	16.92	8.55	4.28
ARI	1-0	35.27	52.93	37.22	18.81	9.48	4.74
GB	1-0	28.14	47.26	33.12	16.65	8.34	4.15
OAK	1-0	36.14	50.20	33.82	16.71	8.24	4.10
JAC	1-0	33.75	47.94	31.85	15.74	7.77	3.86
NYJ	1-0	25.39	41.15	27.61	13.64	6.73	3.34
DAL	0-1	14.51	25.98	16.34	7.95	3.87	1.86
TEN	0-1	13.10	22.75	13.65	6.57	3.17	1.53
DEN	0-1	14.18	24.46	14.83	7.12	3.42	1.66
NO	0-1	27.20	32.87	19.22	9.20	4.40	2.10
CAR	0-1	25.80	31.15	18.10	8.61	4.10	1.95
TB	0-1	25.25	30.82	17.89	8.50	4.04	1.92
MIN	0-1	10.71	21.86	13.66	6.52	3.11	1.47
MIA	0-1	8.64	17.51	10.41	4.88	2.29	1.08
CLE	0-1	11.15	20.83	12.28	5.75	2.70	1.27
SEA	0-1	10.95	21.46	12.85	6.00	2.80	1.30
NYG	0-1	9.66	19.10	11.38	5.31	2.49	1.15
STL	0-1	12.38	21.95	13.06	6.05	2.81	1.29
ATL	0-1	21.76	26.85	15.04	6.92	3.19	1.47
IND	0-1	9.75	17.60	9.98	4.55	2.08	0.96
PIT	0-1	9.54	18.19	10.42	4.76	2.18	1.00
KC	0-1	12.82	20.60	11.80	5.37	2.44	1.12

Note too that with 1 of 16 games played, the best and worst teams are not too far separated in strength, as the strength rating counts more as more games are played.  This keeps the weekly numbers from fluctuating wildly, and keeps big early season victories from causing me to claim a team has a 50% chance at the Superbowl.

Hopefully I can come up with a way to include more stats in my weekly projection posts, either by stacking them vertically or widening my template.