Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

The two participants stay the same, but KC takes back the top spot from Seattle. Seattle is currently so far and above the rest of the NFC that they're sitting at a 95% chance of making the playoffs, and 28.5% chance of winning the conference.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	4-0	0.610	49.724	79.054	61.840	34.323	18.982	10.546
SEA	4-0	0.606	87.990	95.000	84.950	49.814	28.501	15.284
IND	3-1	0.599	54.260	67.278	48.341	26.205	14.026	7.648
DEN	4-0	0.596	44.323	76.938	58.383	31.319	16.798	9.100
NE	4-0	0.573	56.628	77.666	59.878	30.950	15.484	8.025
CAR	1-2	0.569	25.420	50.690	32.690	16.960	8.783	4.379
NO	3-0	0.568	68.997	83.884	64.839	34.631	17.868	8.877
TEN	3-1	0.560	35.716	57.357	38.106	18.917	9.305	4.704
MIA	3-0	0.543	33.560	62.309	43.628	20.840	9.748	4.763
DAL	2-2	0.537	62.967	67.805	42.212	20.344	9.749	4.542
DET	3-1	0.534	49.125	72.720	50.750	24.699	11.771	5.454
CHI	3-1	0.520	33.129	61.630	40.161	18.815	8.690	3.904
GB	1-2	0.512	14.382	32.055	18.854	8.570	3.914	1.729
SD	2-2	0.511	5.188	16.679	9.168	4.041	1.805	0.823
BUF	2-2	0.508	6.170	19.746	10.897	4.757	2.076	0.941
CIN	2-2	0.500	31.294	34.971	17.752	7.551	3.205	1.430
BAL	2-2	0.490	35.697	38.341	18.614	7.732	3.210	1.398
MIN	1-3	0.487	3.364	12.414	6.408	2.731	1.192	0.497
CLE	2-2	0.483	29.716	32.777	15.597	6.383	2.611	1.121
ATL	1-3	0.481	4.840	16.119	8.160	3.449	1.487	0.611
HOU	2-2	0.472	9.779	18.104	9.246	3.755	1.522	0.636
SF	2-2	0.466	5.806	31.211	15.462	6.249	2.608	1.036
WAS	1-3	0.462	15.309	18.432	8.612	3.449	1.405	0.552
OAK	1-3	0.456	0.765	3.982	1.805	0.694	0.272	0.110
ARI	2-2	0.455	5.094	23.020	11.141	4.394	1.786	0.690
NYJ	2-2	0.454	3.642	10.733	5.218	2.004	0.772	0.309
PHI	1-3	0.442	18.704	23.695	11.087	4.246	1.647	0.616
TB	0-4	0.425	0.742	2.604	1.110	0.407	0.154	0.055
PIT	0-4	0.425	3.293	3.600	1.364	0.478	0.169	0.063
STL	1-3	0.414	1.110	4.927	2.087	0.747	0.277	0.097
NYG	0-4	0.392	3.020	3.793	1.476	0.493	0.169	0.055
JAC	0-4	0.378	0.244	0.464	0.163	0.051	0.016	0.005

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]

2013 World Series Projection, September 30

St. Louis over Boston

Once again I've put together the strengths of each team based on runs scored and allowed, and done the math on each team's odds of advancing to each round of the playoffs. The length of the series is taken into account as well. Once I found out we'd have a play-in for the play-in game, I had to modify my software a bit, but the numbers still appear to sum up correctly, so I'll call it good.

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
STL	0.6228	100.00	61.68	36.46	19.77
BOS	0.6184	100.00	61.54	33.06	18.23
DET	0.6100	100.00	53.33	28.12	14.97
ATL	0.6030	100.00	60.09	30.41	15.13
OAK	0.5930	100.00	46.67	22.85	11.29
CIN	0.5774	53.47	22.03	10.78	4.76
TEX	0.5653	27.14	10.81	4.52	1.96
CLE	0.5541	48.86	18.45	7.27	2.97
LAD	0.5499	100.00	39.91	15.58	5.96
PIT	0.5432	46.53	16.29	6.76	2.50
TB	0.5350	22.56	7.76	2.75	1.02

I do have one disclaimer, though. Cleveland shows a lower strength than Texas. However, if Texas and Tampa Bay burn their #1 starters on the pre-play-in play-in, Cleveland's chances should logically improve. These percentages really reflect an average matchup chance, and get more accurate the longer a series is. But a Cleveland-Texas matchup would feature Cleveland's best against Texas's second best, which may or may not tip the scales for Cleveland. Likewise, Boston and St. Louis's chances should be higher, because they'll both have at least a 1-starter advantage over their wildcard opponent.

But in the end, any team can beat any other team in a 1-game playoff. The 100-loss Miami Marlins can even no-hit the playoff-bound Detroit Tigers.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

Once again, my #1 team lost, as LSU fell to Georgia. On a selfish note, this makes the SEC East a bit tougher for Mizzou now, not that I think we had an excellent chance of winning it.

Ohio State snuck up on me and surprised me at #1, though that's largely because they're the only 5-0 team. Still, they've got 5 wins and no one else does.

Both Missouri and Virginia Tech (Hi, Spankee) got votes in the polls last week, though not enough to be ranked. This week, with another win each, we might see them crack the top 25, but probably not quite up to #9 and #11 where I have them.

USC stole a bit of the spotlight this week by firing Lane Kiffin. I only find that somewhat interesting because, after the Rams Thursday Night Football loss, and subsequent local media meltdown, I had a discussion with a friend about firing coaches. We looked up some records, and Mike Martz, seemingly hated by St. Louis fans and media (and ownership), was far better by pretty much any W-L measure than Steve Spagnolo or Scott Linehan. He took the Rams to the playoffs 2 years in a row, going 1-2 in those games, and was fired during the next season. Officially it was at the end, but there was a health leave and some ownership interference; it was clear he was out long before he was out. Yet the Rams were so bad for Linehan, if Spagnolo had taken the Rams to the playoffs even once, he'd have locked up his job for at least a few more years.

Our - probably obvious - conclusion was, it all comes down to expectations. The same can be said at USC. The "real" rankings don't go past 25, or 35 if you extrapolate all the votes, but I've got USC at #47, meaning they're better than nearly 2/3 of teams. If Southern Miss, 0-for-2012, was 3-2 this year, the new coach would already have a 5 year extension. Of course, USC has likely recruited some talent with better potential than other teams, especially being in a big conference and having relative success lately. So the quick hook was likely justified in this case.

The NFL and NCAA are vastly different in terms of signing players and competitive balance, but here's a short but interesting Freakonomics article on the effect of firing the head coach.

Now, on to the rankings.

1	Ohio State	5-0
2	Alabama	4-0
3	Florida State	4-0
4	Clemson	4-0
5	Washington	4-0
6	Texas A&M	4-1
7	Stanford	4-0
8	Oregon	4-0
9	Missouri	4-0
10	Oklahoma	4-0
11	Virginia Tech	4-1
12	Northern Illinois	4-0
13	Fresno State	4-0
14	Texas Tech	4-0
15	LSU	4-1
16	Northwestern	4-0
17	Louisville	4-0
18	Maryland	4-0
19	Minnesota	4-1
20	Houston	4-0
21	Bowling Green	4-1
22	Iowa	4-1
23	Oregon State	4-1
24	Michigan	4-0
25	Georgia	3-1
26	Ball State	4-1
27	Miami (FL)	4-0
28	Arizona	3-1
29	Arizona State	3-1
30	Auburn	3-1
31	Washington State	3-2
32	South Carolina	3-1
33	Baylor	3-0
34	Pittsburgh	3-1
35	Florida	3-1
36	Oklahoma State	3-1
37	West Virginia	3-2
38	Nebraska	3-1
39	Utah	3-1
40	UCLA	3-0
41	Texas State	3-1
42	Rutgers	3-1
43	Georgia Tech	3-1
44	Penn State	3-1
45	Illinois	3-1
46	Tennessee	3-2
47	USC	3-2
48	Ohio	3-1
49	East Carolina	3-1
50	UCF	3-1
51	Ole Miss	3-1
52	Arkansas	3-2
53	Duke	3-2
54	North Carolina State	3-1
55	Boise State	3-2
56	UNLV	3-2
57	Notre Dame	3-2
58	Wisconsin	3-2
59	Tulane	3-2
60	Michigan State	3-1
61	Cincinnati	3-1
62	Utah State	3-2
63	Wyoming	3-2
64	Western Kentucky	3-2
65	Nevada	3-2
66	South Alabama	2-2
67	Navy	2-1
68	Vanderbilt	3-2
69	Colorado	2-1
70	North Texas	2-2
71	TCU	2-2
72	Boston College	2-2
73	Middle Tennessee	3-2
74	Mississippi State	2-2
75	Indiana	2-2
76	Syracuse	2-2
77	Marshall	2-2
78	Toledo	2-3
79	Rice	2-2
80	Virginia	2-2
81	Brigham Young	2-2
82	Kent State	2-3
83	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-2
84	Buffalo	2-2
85	Kansas State	2-2
86	UTSA	2-3
87	Louisiana-Monroe	2-3
88	Kansas	2-1
89	Texas	2-2
90	Wake Forest	2-3
91	Arkansas State	2-3
92	Colorado State	2-3
93	Army	2-3
94	California	1-3
95	Troy	2-3
96	Southern Methodist	1-3
97	Iowa State	1-2
98	North Carolina	1-3
99	San Jose State	1-3
100	Akron	1-4
101	Memphis	1-2
102	Eastern Michigan	1-3
103	San Diego State	1-3
104	Tulsa	1-3
105	UAB	1-3
106	Kentucky	1-3
107	Purdue	1-4
108	Central Michigan	1-4
109	New Mexico	1-3
110	Idaho	1-4
111	Louisiana Tech	1-4
112	Florida Atlantic	1-4
113	Air Force	1-4
114	Florida International	0-4
115	Hawaii	0-4
116	Connecticut	0-4
117	Southern Miss	0-4
118	UTEP	1-3
119	Temple	0-4
120	Massachusetts	0-4
121	Western Michigan	0-5
122	South Florida	0-4
123	Miami (OH)	0-4
124	New Mexico State	0-5

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Seattle over Kansas City

Nothing much changes at the top when 2 1-3 teams play.

I can't help but think the Rams strategy, Project Don't-Replace-Steven-Jackson, isn't quite working out. At least we're still better than Jacksonville for now, who we'll play next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	3-0	0.588	83.770	91.565	77.481	43.469	23.966	13.092
KC	3-0	0.575	48.812	73.252	56.384	30.632	16.577	8.724
CAR	1-2	0.569	23.757	48.893	31.178	16.291	8.547	4.506
NO	3-0	0.568	66.688	82.823	63.418	33.803	17.720	9.311
DEN	3-0	0.566	42.586	70.594	52.730	28.013	14.859	7.680
NE	3-0	0.563	47.173	70.760	53.424	28.421	14.895	7.665
DAL	2-1	0.551	65.723	73.390	49.915	25.283	12.694	6.459
IND	2-1	0.545	44.631	54.131	35.683	17.997	9.038	4.482
MIA	3-0	0.543	36.248	63.434	45.631	23.101	11.578	5.724
CHI	3-0	0.533	54.062	74.540	53.750	26.368	12.695	6.237
DET	2-1	0.524	30.332	54.883	34.699	16.489	7.793	3.749
CIN	2-1	0.522	44.023	51.843	32.110	15.382	7.339	3.472
BAL	2-1	0.514	42.048	49.837	30.041	14.162	6.648	3.092
NYJ	2-1	0.513	12.978	32.704	19.909	9.389	4.415	2.052
GB	1-2	0.512	13.699	30.766	17.716	8.160	3.772	1.772
TEN	2-1	0.510	27.920	40.739	24.861	11.612	5.410	2.496
SD	1-2	0.495	5.051	13.004	7.236	3.290	1.503	0.670
ATL	1-2	0.494	7.947	24.151	12.830	5.686	2.545	1.151
PHI	1-2	0.488	24.397	35.074	18.974	8.276	3.621	1.616
BUF	1-2	0.484	3.600	11.721	6.330	2.800	1.240	0.540
HOU	2-1	0.478	24.888	34.363	19.314	8.413	3.659	1.574
OAK	1-2	0.478	3.551	11.487	6.036	2.631	1.151	0.495
MIN	0-3	0.477	1.906	7.715	3.781	1.602	0.689	0.300
SF	2-2	0.466	8.715	32.013	16.050	6.638	2.791	1.184
CLE	1-2	0.460	10.409	13.931	6.793	2.822	1.176	0.484
ARI	1-2	0.456	5.603	17.908	8.607	3.481	1.427	0.592
WAS	0-3	0.452	6.018	8.605	3.919	1.563	0.632	0.260
TB	0-3	0.439	1.608	6.095	2.726	1.058	0.418	0.167
PIT	0-3	0.434	3.520	4.712	2.067	0.803	0.315	0.122
NYG	0-3	0.424	3.862	6.007	2.591	0.966	0.364	0.140
STL	1-3	0.414	1.912	5.572	2.365	0.867	0.324	0.122
JAC	0-3	0.411	2.562	3.488	1.451	0.532	0.197	0.072

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]

eBay Wins #87

I don't usually buy enough of any one product to come anywhere close to completing an insert set, so I pounced on these insert cards listed at a penny each. I wound up winning 10 for a dime, which I would have gladly paid for the Pujols or Holliday alone. The original insert rate was 1:6, so this represents 60 packs worth of Diamond Stars. There were a few duplicates within the lot, as you can see, but I didn't have any of the 7 unique cards previously. I've still only got 10 of the 25 cards in the set.

These cards are shiny in person, but put next to each other in a scan, and I start to feel dizzy just looking at all the colors, lines, and sparkle.

2011 Topps - Diamond Stars
#DS-3 Joe Mauer
#DS-10 Albert Pujols
#DS-12 Alex Rodriguez (x2)
#DS-15 Cliff Lee (x2)
#DS-16 Felix Hernandez
#DS-17 Matt Holliday
#DS-24 Ryan Braun

I actually got 2 of the Braun cards as well, but my scanner is wide enough to go 5 cards by 2. It looks mostly like the first one, though, so you can imagine it.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2457
Total Spent	$43.42
Per Card	1.767 cents

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

The AFC West is shaping up to be a 2-team race between Kansas City and Denver; those two have a combined chance of over 91% of winning the division. I've currently got Kansas City as the stronger team, but not so much so that I'd bet on them to win both games against Denver just yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	3-0	0.588	84.053	91.324	77.214	43.325	23.876	13.044
KC	3-0	0.575	48.816	73.276	56.429	30.666	16.597	8.732
CAR	1-2	0.569	23.705	49.446	31.560	16.488	8.651	4.563
NO	3-0	0.568	66.553	83.121	63.794	34.034	17.856	9.386
DEN	3-0	0.566	42.579	70.623	52.775	28.043	14.884	7.694
NE	3-0	0.563	47.160	70.787	53.459	28.434	14.896	7.668
DAL	2-1	0.551	65.666	73.707	50.354	25.525	12.822	6.526
IND	2-1	0.545	44.126	53.544	35.210	17.751	8.917	4.422
MIA	3-0	0.543	36.253	63.481	45.670	23.127	11.588	5.729
CHI	3-0	0.533	53.632	74.506	53.643	26.336	12.686	6.231
DET	2-1	0.524	30.591	55.537	35.159	16.721	7.899	3.803
CIN	2-1	0.522	44.016	51.849	32.127	15.395	7.343	3.472
BAL	2-1	0.514	42.054	49.853	30.061	14.166	6.652	3.096
NYJ	2-1	0.513	12.983	32.736	19.938	9.402	4.420	2.051
GB	1-2	0.512	13.838	31.591	18.191	8.382	3.877	1.820
TEN	2-1	0.510	28.176	40.892	24.959	11.659	5.432	2.504
SD	1-2	0.495	5.055	13.029	7.252	3.299	1.508	0.673
ATL	1-2	0.494	8.143	25.312	13.478	5.973	2.676	1.211
PHI	1-2	0.488	24.334	35.360	19.176	8.369	3.666	1.637
BUF	1-2	0.484	3.604	11.751	6.347	2.806	1.242	0.540
HOU	2-1	0.478	25.103	34.498	19.388	8.445	3.672	1.580
OAK	1-2	0.478	3.550	11.509	6.054	2.638	1.158	0.496
MIN	0-3	0.477	1.939	7.941	3.894	1.650	0.709	0.309
CLE	1-2	0.460	10.407	13.934	6.797	2.826	1.178	0.484
ARI	1-2	0.456	5.868	18.515	8.926	3.611	1.482	0.613
WAS	0-3	0.452	6.152	8.871	4.050	1.614	0.652	0.269
STL	1-2	0.450	6.238	16.352	7.894	3.165	1.289	0.527
TB	0-3	0.439	1.599	6.243	2.793	1.084	0.429	0.171
PIT	0-3	0.434	3.523	4.721	2.071	0.805	0.315	0.122
SF	1-2	0.430	3.841	16.085	7.240	2.740	1.057	0.411
NYG	0-3	0.424	3.848	6.090	2.634	0.982	0.372	0.143
JAC	0-3	0.411	2.594	3.516	1.462	0.537	0.199	0.073

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

The top two teams swapped positions, again. Seattle reasserted its dominance with a 45-17 game against Jacksonville. As Jacksonville is the worst team at the moment, I'm glad the top 2 teams have played them, because they are thus at least more comparable to each other.

Carolina is the 3rd best team, with only a 1-2 record. This is a result of their 2 narrow losses by a total of 6 points, and their shutout win by 38 points. If you were to smooth out those points over all 3 games, they'd be 3-0, illustrating my system's preference for point differential over actual wins and losses in projecting future games.

Finally, it's weird to live in a world where the Steelers and Packers are a combined 1-5.

I'll save my Rams bellyaching and hope to instead do some celebrating after this Thursday's game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	3-0	0.588	84.036	91.333	77.241	43.344	23.896	13.141
KC	3-0	0.575	53.140	73.000	57.253	31.419	17.090	8.992
CAR	1-2	0.569	23.700	49.462	31.576	16.492	8.649	4.592
NO	3-0	0.568	66.555	83.134	63.824	34.052	17.854	9.450
NE	3-0	0.563	47.561	71.188	54.152	28.970	15.323	7.886
DAL	2-1	0.551	65.691	73.643	50.241	25.469	12.795	6.559
IND	2-1	0.545	44.638	54.385	36.351	18.466	9.347	4.634
DEN	2-0	0.544	28.780	53.447	37.361	19.015	9.676	4.790
MIA	3-0	0.543	36.186	63.703	46.018	23.437	11.859	5.865
CHI	3-0	0.533	53.628	74.528	53.680	26.348	12.688	6.280
DET	2-1	0.524	30.592	55.560	35.176	16.726	7.911	3.834
CIN	2-1	0.522	44.058	51.976	32.598	15.734	7.567	3.578
OAK	1-1	0.517	12.397	27.627	16.897	8.094	3.886	1.817
BAL	2-1	0.514	42.074	49.908	30.518	14.493	6.864	3.195
NYJ	2-1	0.513	12.657	32.433	19.808	9.403	4.464	2.073
GB	1-2	0.512	13.841	31.607	18.205	8.387	3.878	1.835
TEN	2-1	0.510	27.878	40.773	25.166	11.849	5.567	2.566
SD	1-2	0.495	5.683	13.149	7.400	3.391	1.557	0.695
ATL	1-2	0.494	8.144	25.343	13.499	5.983	2.680	1.223
PHI	1-2	0.488	24.352	35.266	19.104	8.342	3.655	1.645
BUF	1-2	0.484	3.595	11.843	6.434	2.867	1.281	0.558
HOU	2-1	0.478	24.837	34.370	19.568	8.593	3.772	1.624
MIN	0-3	0.477	1.940	7.960	3.904	1.654	0.712	0.312
CLE	1-2	0.460	10.435	13.988	6.914	2.902	1.219	0.502
ARI	1-2	0.456	5.874	18.562	8.951	3.620	1.485	0.620
WAS	0-3	0.452	6.167	8.850	4.042	1.612	0.652	0.270
STL	1-2	0.451	6.249	16.399	7.922	3.175	1.291	0.533
TB	0-3	0.439	1.601	6.265	2.806	1.089	0.430	0.173
PIT	0-3	0.434	3.433	4.622	2.054	0.806	0.318	0.123
SF	1-2	0.430	3.842	16.120	7.255	2.749	1.060	0.417
NYG	0-3	0.424	3.789	5.967	2.575	0.959	0.362	0.140
JAC	0-3	0.412	2.647	3.591	1.508	0.561	0.210	0.077

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

If you lose, you're out of the family. Or at least the #1 spot. Auburn dropped to #9, though they still outrank plenty of 3-0 teams. On the strength of that victory, LSU takes over #1, because LSU's other victories have not been over stellar teams.

The Big 10 is looking pretty strong early in the year, with 2 of the top 5 slots, and 4 of the top 8.

Missouri jumped up to #14, so I'll be interested to see if they even get a vote in any polls this week. Last week they did not.

New Mexico State retains the #124 ranking after losing a squeaker to UCLA, 59-13.

1	LSU	4-0
2	Texas Tech	4-0
3	Northwestern	4-0
4	Louisville	4-0
5	Michigan	4-0
6	Maryland	4-0
7	Minnesota	4-0
8	Ohio State	4-0
9	Auburn	3-1
10	Clemson	3-0
11	Florida State	3-0
12	Alabama	3-0
13	Washington	3-0
14	Missouri	3-0
15	Arizona	3-0
16	Oklahoma State	3-0
17	Fresno State	3-0
18	Washington State	3-1
19	Oregon	3-0
20	Baylor	3-0
21	Oklahoma	3-0
22	Nebraska	3-1
23	Texas A&M	3-1
24	Northern Illinois	3-0
25	Virginia Tech	3-1
26	UCF	3-0
27	Penn State	3-1
28	USC	3-1
29	UCLA	3-0
30	Utah	3-1
31	Georgia Tech	3-0
32	Stanford	3-0
33	Ohio	3-1
34	Rutgers	3-1
35	Notre Dame	3-1
36	Miami (FL)	3-0
37	Arkansas	3-1
38	Bowling Green	3-1
39	Houston	3-0
40	Ole Miss	3-0
41	Oregon State	3-1
42	Michigan State	3-1
43	Ball State	3-1
44	Cincinnati	3-1
45	Wisconsin	3-1
46	Wyoming	3-1
47	Middle Tennessee	3-1
48	Navy	2-0
49	Georgia	2-1
50	Illinois	2-1
51	Mississippi State	2-2
52	Florida	2-1
53	Iowa	3-1
54	South Alabama	2-1
55	Pittsburgh	2-1
56	Arizona State	2-1
57	North Carolina State	2-1
58	Boise State	2-2
59	East Carolina	2-1
60	Indiana	2-2
61	Boston College	2-1
62	Duke	2-2
63	Toledo	2-2
64	Colorado	2-0
65	Marshall	2-2
66	UNLV	2-2
67	South Carolina	2-1
68	Syracuse	2-2
69	West Virginia	2-2
70	Virginia	2-1
71	North Texas	2-2
72	Texas State	2-1
73	Utah State	2-2
74	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-2
75	Tulane	2-2
76	UTSA	2-2
77	Louisiana-Monroe	2-2
78	Tennessee	2-2
79	Kansas State	2-2
80	Troy	2-2
81	Arkansas State	2-2
82	Kansas	2-1
83	Texas	2-2
84	Wake Forest	2-2
85	Nevada	2-2
86	Western Kentucky	2-2
87	Vanderbilt	2-2
88	California	1-2
89	TCU	1-2
90	North Carolina	1-2
91	Akron	1-3
92	Southern Methodist	1-2
93	Rice	1-2
94	Kent State	1-3
95	Brigham Young	1-2
96	Memphis	1-2
97	UAB	1-2
98	San Jose State	1-2
99	Tulsa	1-2
100	Buffalo	1-2
101	Eastern Michigan	1-3
102	Purdue	1-3
103	Central Michigan	1-3
104	New Mexico	1-2
105	Louisiana Tech	1-3
106	Florida Atlantic	1-3
107	Kentucky	1-2
108	Colorado State	1-3
109	Army	1-3
110	Air Force	1-3
111	UTEP	1-2
112	Connecticut	0-3
113	Florida International	0-4
114	Temple	0-3
115	San Diego State	0-3
116	Iowa State	0-2
117	Southern Miss	0-3
118	Idaho	0-4
119	Hawaii	0-3
120	Western Michigan	0-4
121	South Florida	0-3
122	Miami (OH)	0-3
123	Massachusetts	0-4
124	New Mexico State	0-4

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

The top two teams swapped positions, so now the seemingly real Chiefs are projected to beat the Seahawks. As I often state, though, this can be skewed by the fact that they've played a different number of games.

In the NFL, 64 of the games (25%) are inter-conference games, as last night's game was. Having just one game between simulations means I can view the gradient effect of the game. In this case, every NFC team's chances went up just a little bit. This is because, with one less possible win among all NFC teams, the wildcard slots will be slightly easier to attain. Later in the year this effect is usually superseded by the actual records of the teams involved, because if there are a few 10-win teams in a division, it doesn't matter how bad the conference is as a whole, those 10-win teams are both likely making the playoffs. But for now, with the AFC 6-1 against the NFC, the 1-1 Rams or even 0-2 Vikings and Buccaneers can dream of an 8-8 (maybe even 7-9) Wildcard season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.575	50.500	74.294	59.354	33.414	18.805	10.552
SEA	2-0	0.561	58.383	76.415	61.657	34.544	19.239	10.297
DEN	2-0	0.544	28.834	56.954	40.819	21.298	11.197	5.934
MIA	2-0	0.536	39.825	60.693	45.098	23.410	11.941	6.241
NO	2-0	0.521	56.913	68.602	50.302	25.753	13.058	6.466
GB	1-1	0.518	26.267	42.985	29.157	14.781	7.450	3.667
CIN	1-1	0.517	47.431	52.784	33.041	16.253	7.938	3.994
OAK	1-1	0.517	11.565	29.210	18.471	9.075	4.501	2.263
HOU	2-0	0.515	49.892	60.632	41.886	20.639	10.056	5.035
NE	2-0	0.514	35.281	55.311	38.904	19.200	9.329	4.662
DET	1-1	0.511	25.659	41.583	27.714	13.836	6.862	3.328
DAL	1-1	0.507	45.118	51.890	33.360	16.465	8.093	3.899
CHI	2-0	0.507	42.186	60.180	43.406	21.571	10.608	5.107
TEN	1-1	0.502	20.117	31.427	19.212	9.179	4.368	2.134
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.931	38.108	24.156	11.808	5.765	2.748
ARI	1-1	0.502	15.544	36.110	22.901	11.163	5.478	2.609
SD	1-1	0.500	9.102	23.638	14.383	6.832	3.276	1.592
IND	1-1	0.500	24.005	33.135	20.187	9.600	4.548	2.213
BUF	1-1	0.498	12.769	26.398	16.408	7.798	3.675	1.781
NYJ	1-1	0.494	12.125	25.445	15.663	7.370	3.437	1.649
STL	1-1	0.493	16.520	34.312	21.518	10.299	4.966	2.322
TB	0-2	0.491	9.672	19.041	11.155	5.325	2.543	1.185
PHI	1-2	0.488	28.377	35.430	20.934	9.892	4.672	2.163
CAR	0-2	0.483	11.485	19.234	11.067	5.189	2.430	1.113
MIN	0-2	0.483	5.888	14.512	8.400	3.945	1.854	0.848
BAL	1-1	0.474	31.444	35.883	19.870	8.900	3.968	1.827
NYG	0-2	0.470	13.322	18.239	10.020	4.550	2.069	0.920
WAS	0-2	0.466	13.183	17.068	9.107	4.091	1.842	0.812
SF	1-1	0.465	9.552	26.291	15.145	6.788	3.071	1.349
PIT	0-2	0.454	11.097	13.659	6.759	2.882	1.229	0.542
CLE	0-2	0.447	10.027	12.211	5.901	2.479	1.043	0.452
JAC	0-2	0.439	5.987	8.328	4.046	1.670	0.690	0.294

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]

Zistle Trade #4

There are no small trades, only small traders, or something like that. However, I manged to snag these 5 cards for just a Bryce Harper base card in a PWE. This trade came in when Zistle.com first announced their free trial of their enhanced features, which seem to allow for easier matching of want and trade lists, and my trading partner found me.

1993 Upper Deck #428 Dmitri Young
1997 Collector's Choice #471 Matt Morris
2007 Upper Deck Future Stars #87 Scott Rolen

The cards above were nice, and on my want list, but the two below are of players I really collect.

1990 Leaf # Ozzie Smith
1997 Fleer #193 Mark McGwire

Even though these are two base cards of fairly common sets, I didn't have them yet. The McGwire is especially surprising to me given how much wax I was buying in 1997, and how much McGwire stuff I bought from my LCS in 1998-99.

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Final

Seattle over Kansas City

Nothing substantial changed after the just the Cincinnati-Pittsburgh Monday night game, except that Cincinnati is now the favorite to win the AFC North, and the once-mighty Steelers are off to an 0-2 start.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	2-0	0.561	58.461	76.163	61.198	34.203	19.013	10.285
KC	2-0	0.555	39.847	62.880	47.581	25.823	14.014	7.569
DEN	2-0	0.544	34.377	58.777	43.273	22.914	12.150	6.431
MIA	2-0	0.536	39.767	61.390	45.781	23.955	12.395	6.468
NO	2-0	0.521	56.953	68.414	49.875	25.464	12.898	6.461
GB	1-1	0.518	26.262	42.504	28.629	14.484	7.286	3.631
CIN	1-1	0.517	47.380	53.030	33.626	16.701	8.270	4.155
OAK	1-1	0.517	14.296	30.929	19.934	9.933	4.969	2.494
HOU	2-0	0.515	49.936	61.338	43.018	21.399	10.562	5.281
NE	2-0	0.514	35.219	56.024	39.580	19.684	9.711	4.847
DET	1-1	0.511	25.661	41.112	27.193	13.548	6.712	3.294
DAL	1-1	0.507	39.615	48.313	31.079	15.330	7.528	3.671
CHI	2-0	0.507	42.186	59.680	42.729	21.180	10.398	5.065
PHI	1-1	0.505	37.660	46.390	29.545	14.475	7.065	3.426
TEN	1-1	0.502	20.133	32.193	19.938	9.626	4.638	2.263
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.958	37.788	23.807	11.614	5.656	2.725
ARI	1-1	0.502	15.420	35.449	22.362	10.881	5.330	2.569
SD	1-1	0.500	11.479	25.431	15.771	7.596	3.674	1.782
IND	1-1	0.500	24.032	33.822	20.955	10.069	4.829	2.344
BUF	1-1	0.498	12.906	27.347	17.072	8.189	3.913	1.892
NYJ	1-1	0.494	12.108	26.000	16.055	7.626	3.607	1.728
STL	1-1	0.493	16.557	33.986	21.201	10.128	4.871	2.305
TB	0-2	0.491	9.590	18.655	10.873	5.181	2.470	1.166
CAR	0-2	0.483	11.499	19.055	10.896	5.095	2.385	1.106
MIN	0-2	0.483	5.890	14.237	8.189	3.838	1.801	0.834
BAL	1-1	0.474	31.399	36.113	20.218	9.155	4.138	1.904
NYG	0-2	0.470	11.518	16.747	9.231	4.190	1.904	0.858
WAS	0-2	0.466	11.207	15.582	8.336	3.744	1.683	0.751
SF	1-1	0.465	9.563	25.926	14.856	6.645	3.000	1.335
PIT	0-2	0.454	11.069	13.780	6.900	2.982	1.288	0.567
CLE	0-2	0.447	10.152	12.535	6.139	2.609	1.111	0.480
JAC	0-2	0.439	5.899	8.411	4.158	1.740	0.730	0.311

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Seattle stomped San Francisco (and my fantasy team QB, Colin Kaepernick) to rise up to be the top team with almost 2 weeks completed. I still can't tell how good Kansas City really is, because Dallas has been some level of dysfunctional for the last 10 years it seems, so I never know if their wins indicate a bad opponent, or their losses indicate a good one. But my algorithm has no such memory, so KC is on top of the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	2-0	0.561	58.471	76.197	61.240	34.224	19.025	10.319
KC	2-0	0.555	39.861	62.942	47.902	26.097	14.218	7.680
DEN	2-0	0.544	34.392	58.832	43.577	23.160	12.330	6.528
MIA	2-0	0.537	39.787	61.436	46.111	24.242	12.586	6.572
NO	2-0	0.521	56.966	68.446	49.919	25.494	12.908	6.485
GB	1-1	0.518	26.413	42.576	28.689	14.516	7.302	3.651
OAK	1-1	0.517	14.110	30.640	19.886	9.945	4.994	2.504
HOU	2-0	0.515	49.809	61.326	43.311	21.640	10.724	5.361
NE	2-0	0.514	35.220	56.071	39.876	19.919	9.862	4.922
DET	1-1	0.511	25.807	41.185	27.257	13.583	6.729	3.313
DAL	1-1	0.507	39.639	48.349	31.118	15.349	7.537	3.686
CHI	2-0	0.507	41.847	59.267	42.350	20.988	10.305	5.034
PHI	1-1	0.505	37.660	46.404	29.564	14.487	7.071	3.440
TEN	1-1	0.502	20.082	32.303	20.211	9.800	4.739	2.315
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.950	37.811	23.830	11.623	5.666	2.740
ARI	1-1	0.502	15.423	35.483	22.394	10.895	5.338	2.583
SD	1-1	0.500	11.637	25.768	16.097	7.780	3.778	1.833
IND	1-1	0.500	24.234	34.164	21.315	10.285	4.951	2.403
BUF	1-1	0.498	12.896	27.352	17.215	8.291	3.975	1.923
CIN	0-1	0.494	30.205	35.060	20.628	9.757	4.609	2.207
NYJ	1-1	0.494	12.097	26.023	16.195	7.724	3.665	1.756
STL	1-1	0.493	16.548	34.013	21.220	10.134	4.874	2.314
TB	0-2	0.491	9.591	18.680	10.887	5.186	2.475	1.172
CAR	0-2	0.483	11.494	19.066	10.903	5.102	2.388	1.110
MIN	0-2	0.483	5.933	14.259	8.203	3.843	1.803	0.837
PIT	0-1	0.478	25.639	29.273	16.199	7.407	3.383	1.570
BAL	1-1	0.474	33.281	37.330	20.883	9.466	4.282	1.970
NYG	0-2	0.470	11.504	16.743	9.228	4.189	1.902	0.859
WAS	0-2	0.466	11.197	15.578	8.334	3.739	1.680	0.753
SF	1-1	0.464	9.558	25.942	14.864	6.647	2.999	1.341
CLE	0-2	0.447	10.875	13.073	6.401	2.724	1.162	0.503
JAC	0-2	0.439	5.875	8.407	4.193	1.763	0.742	0.316

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

Auburn sits atop my power rankings this week.

North Carolina State plummeted to #38 from #1 because of their bye week, combined with the performance of their past opponents.

#1 in the real world Alabama is down at #20 in these rankings, also due largely to having one less win than the 3-0 teams at the top.

I don't think the poll voters are going to be as impressed with the Michigan win as my score-agnostic algorithm is, so I doubt they'll rise up anywhere near #3 this week.

And somehow Mizzou jumped up to #28 from #34 by not playing a game. Confirming what many know about SEC football.


Or maybe that was Global Thermonuclear War, I can never keep the two straight in my mind.

1	Auburn	3-0
2	Oklahoma	3-0
3	Michigan	3-0
4	Louisville	3-0
5	UCF	3-0
6	Oregon	3-0
7	Arizona	3-0
8	Oklahoma State	3-0
9	Texas Tech	3-0
10	Ohio State	3-0
11	Arkansas	3-0
12	LSU	3-0
13	Northwestern	3-0
14	Minnesota	3-0
15	Maryland	3-0
16	Michigan State	3-0
17	Washington	2-0
18	Ole Miss	3-0
19	Washington State	2-1
20	Alabama	2-0
21	Ohio	2-1
22	Navy	2-0
23	Baylor	2-0
24	Georgia Tech	2-0
25	South Alabama	2-1
26	Utah	2-1
26	Illinois	2-1
28	Missouri	2-0
29	Texas A&M	2-1
30	Boise State	2-1
31	UCLA	2-0
32	Clemson	2-0
33	Cincinnati	2-1
34	Arizona State	2-0
34	Bowling Green	2-1
36	Fresno State	2-0
37	Indiana	2-1
38	North Carolina State	2-0
39	Tulane	2-1
40	Miami (FL)	2-0
41	Colorado	2-0
42	Penn State	2-1
43	Oregon State	2-1
44	Duke	2-1
45	USC	2-1
46	Florida State	2-0
47	Stanford	2-0
48	Marshall	2-1
49	North Texas	2-1
49	Utah State	2-1
51	Nebraska	2-1
52	East Carolina	2-1
53	Northern Illinois	2-0
54	Virginia Tech	2-1
55	Wisconsin	2-1
56	Arkansas State	2-1
57	West Virginia	2-1
58	Notre Dame	2-1
59	Kansas State	2-1
60	South Carolina	2-1
61	Rutgers	2-1
62	Houston	2-0
63	Boston College	2-1
64	Tennessee	2-1
65	Texas State	2-0
66	Ball State	2-1
67	Troy	2-1
68	Wyoming	2-1
69	Louisiana-Monroe	2-1
70	Iowa	2-1
71	Middle Tennessee	2-1
72	Georgia	1-1
73	Southern Methodist	1-1
74	Akron	1-2
75	Mississippi State	1-2
76	California	1-2
77	Kent State	1-2
78	Florida	1-1
79	North Carolina	1-1
80	Virginia	1-1
81	Buffalo	1-2
82	Toledo	1-2
83	UNLV	1-2
84	Rice	1-1
85	Tulsa	1-2
86	TCU	1-2
87	UTSA	1-2
88	Louisiana Tech	1-2
89	San Jose State	1-1
90	Pittsburgh	1-1
91	Louisiana-Lafayette	1-2
92	Syracuse	1-2
93	Purdue	1-2
94	Western Kentucky	1-2
95	Eastern Michigan	1-2
96	Brigham Young	1-1
97	Kansas	1-1
98	Central Michigan	1-2
99	Florida Atlantic	1-2
100	Colorado State	1-2
101	Wake Forest	1-2
102	Vanderbilt	1-2
103	Nevada	1-2
104	Air Force	1-2
105	Army	1-2
106	Kentucky	1-2
107	New Mexico	1-2
108	Texas	1-2
109	UTEP	1-1
110	San Diego State	0-2
111	Florida International	0-3
112	Connecticut	0-2
113	Hawaii	0-2
114	UAB	0-2
115	Massachusetts	0-3
116	Southern Miss	0-3
117	Temple	0-3
118	Memphis	0-2
119	Idaho	0-3
120	Iowa State	0-2
121	South Florida	0-3
122	Western Michigan	0-3
123	Miami (OH)	0-2
124	New Mexico State	0-3

2013 History
Week 1
Week 2

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

New England over New Orleans

I get the feeling New England is mostly here on the strength of being the only team currently 2-0, as well as defeating 2 division rivals, giving them an edge almost as good as New Orleans, who is the only 1-0 team in an otherwise 0-3 division. There are still 239 games to be played, though, so even Jacksonville is still a contender.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	1-0	0.531	38.370	54.723	39.678	20.901	10.990	5.780
MIA	1-0	0.526	33.350	52.828	38.073	19.853	10.317	5.380
DEN	1-0	0.522	34.101	51.112	36.355	18.775	9.688	5.009
TEN	1-0	0.522	32.965	50.817	36.143	18.651	9.588	4.954
SEA	1-0	0.521	32.422	51.359	36.532	18.919	9.787	5.011
DET	1-0	0.515	38.238	53.109	37.428	19.138	9.771	4.948
NE	2-0	0.514	41.224	60.588	43.862	22.271	11.272	5.734
NO	1-0	0.513	45.273	55.305	38.365	19.530	9.928	5.008
IND	1-0	0.510	29.069	46.484	32.113	16.133	8.090	4.083
PHI	1-0	0.509	36.667	50.270	34.607	17.469	8.803	4.405
SF	1-0	0.509	28.018	47.059	32.503	16.400	8.275	4.140
DAL	1-0	0.507	35.484	49.208	33.697	16.927	8.497	4.233
CHI	1-0	0.506	33.039	47.645	32.849	16.474	8.257	4.105
STL	1-0	0.505	28.468	46.530	31.879	15.967	8.002	3.973
HOU	1-0	0.505	28.082	45.461	31.122	15.469	7.676	3.834
TB	0-1	0.497	20.979	30.117	18.890	9.289	4.566	2.232
BUF	0-1	0.496	10.963	23.510	14.598	7.115	3.469	1.703
SD	0-1	0.495	13.971	23.803	14.777	7.210	3.522	1.725
ARI	0-1	0.495	11.091	23.206	14.383	7.043	3.452	1.678
CIN	0-1	0.494	28.482	34.635	21.139	10.205	4.924	2.408
NYJ	1-1	0.494	14.463	29.467	18.525	8.991	4.360	2.130
NYG	0-1	0.493	14.107	24.272	14.925	7.278	3.548	1.719
GB	0-1	0.491	16.217	25.726	15.958	7.753	3.767	1.819
WAS	0-1	0.491	13.743	23.774	14.546	7.061	3.428	1.653
OAK	0-1	0.490	13.558	23.026	14.125	6.817	3.294	1.599
ATL	0-1	0.487	16.309	25.048	15.078	7.250	3.486	1.667
MIN	0-1	0.485	12.506	22.952	13.963	6.696	3.212	1.532
CAR	0-1	0.479	17.438	24.420	14.397	6.806	3.221	1.515
PIT	0-1	0.478	24.498	29.091	16.702	7.794	3.637	1.721
BAL	0-1	0.478	24.213	28.869	16.583	7.735	3.604	1.703
CLE	0-1	0.474	22.807	27.497	15.623	7.216	3.333	1.563
JAC	0-1	0.469	9.884	18.089	10.582	4.866	2.237	1.037

[Week 1]

eBay Wins #86

1989 Upper Deck #617 Tom Browning

I've got 21 cards out of this set, including the most expensive one, #1 Ken Griffey, Jr. I'd like to complete it eventually, but I've got a little over 97% left to go, but only 75% of the Cardinals, as I've got 7 out of their 28.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	2447
Total Spent	$43.32
Per Card	1.77 cents

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 1

Kansas City over New Orleans
One day I'll write up a clearer explanation, but for now, here's my attempt 2 years ago. In essence, I assign a strength to each team based on their points scored and points allowed, simulate the rest of the season using those strengths, and report their chances of reaching each playoff round.

In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville. Even though Seattle and Detroit are currently stronger teams than New Orleans, the NFC South is currently a weaker division, increasing New Orleans' chances of making the playoffs, and ultimately making them the NFC favorite. These won't hold up for long, so there's no sense in any deep analyses. Let's just see the numbers.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	1-0	0.531	38.331	54.749	39.764	20.976	11.050	5.814
MIA	1-0	0.527	34.050	52.982	38.343	20.026	10.410	5.427
DEN	1-0	0.522	34.257	51.260	36.518	18.899	9.771	5.053
TEN	1-0	0.522	32.848	50.809	36.186	18.693	9.633	4.980
SEA	1-0	0.521	32.442	51.388	36.555	18.932	9.802	5.027
DET	1-0	0.515	38.266	53.133	37.449	19.146	9.774	4.952
NO	1-0	0.513	45.272	55.322	38.380	19.535	9.930	5.016
IND	1-0	0.510	29.073	46.535	32.194	16.209	8.144	4.108
PHI	1-0	0.509	36.686	50.288	34.625	17.483	8.812	4.416
SF	1-0	0.509	28.017	47.066	32.505	16.399	8.276	4.147
DAL	1-0	0.507	35.481	49.207	33.695	16.935	8.499	4.239
CHI	1-0	0.506	33.048	47.659	32.857	16.486	8.259	4.113
STL	1-0	0.505	28.465	46.526	31.873	15.966	8.002	3.982
HOU	1-0	0.505	28.197	45.568	31.247	15.559	7.733	3.864
NE	1-0	0.504	28.055	46.041	31.612	15.733	7.812	3.898
NYJ	1-0	0.503	26.404	43.433	29.631	14.690	7.264	3.618
TB	0-1	0.497	21.054	30.202	18.946	9.315	4.580	2.240
BUF	0-1	0.496	11.491	23.579	14.740	7.195	3.511	1.723
SD	0-1	0.495	13.947	23.808	14.810	7.238	3.538	1.733
ARI	0-1	0.495	11.077	23.178	14.367	7.035	3.448	1.677
CIN	0-1	0.494	28.489	34.656	21.196	10.245	4.948	2.417
NYG	0-1	0.493	14.098	24.261	14.912	7.269	3.545	1.720
GB	0-1	0.491	16.197	25.698	15.933	7.739	3.756	1.814
WAS	0-1	0.491	13.735	23.759	14.539	7.056	3.423	1.652
OAK	0-1	0.490	13.465	22.985	14.131	6.830	3.307	1.606
ATL	0-1	0.487	16.284	25.022	15.063	7.236	3.481	1.667
MIN	0-1	0.485	12.490	22.924	13.941	6.680	3.204	1.529
CAR	0-1	0.479	17.390	24.368	14.359	6.788	3.209	1.514
PIT	0-1	0.478	24.488	29.096	16.733	7.819	3.655	1.729
BAL	0-1	0.478	24.206	28.872	16.618	7.758	3.621	1.712
CLE	0-1	0.473	22.818	27.527	15.667	7.244	3.351	1.570
JAC	0-1	0.469	9.882	18.100	10.609	4.886	2.252	1.045

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

NC State sits atop these early season rankings. There are relatively few ties this week, but the rankings are still very tight. The top 40 teams are 2-0, and 19 of the bottom 23 are 0-2. Southern Miss maintains it's winless streak, after an 0-12 2012 and 0-2 so far this year.

1	North Carolina State	2-0
2	Oklahoma State	2-0
3	Louisville	2-0
4	Oregon	2-0
5	Fresno State	2-0
6	Bowling Green	2-0
7	Utah	2-0
8	Auburn	2-0
9	Oklahoma	2-0
10	Clemson	2-0
11	Penn State	2-0
12	Northwestern	2-0
13	LSU	2-0
14	Boston College	2-0
15	UCF	2-0
16	Illinois	2-0
17	Michigan	2-0
18	Texas A&M	2-0
18	Duke	2-0
20	Colorado	2-0
21	Texas State	2-0
22	Texas Tech	2-0
23	Ball State	2-0
24	Wisconsin	2-0
25	Miami (FL)	2-0
25	Tennessee	2-0
27	Baylor	2-0
28	Nebraska	2-0
29	Arizona	2-0
29	Troy	2-0
31	Maryland	2-0
32	East Carolina	2-0
33	Ohio State	2-0
34	Missouri	2-0
35	Ole Miss	2-0
36	Arkansas	2-0
37	Marshall	2-0
38	Minnesota	2-0
39	Michigan State	2-0
40	Houston	2-0
41	Washington	1-0
42	Georgia	1-1
43	Louisiana Tech	1-1
44	Virginia	1-1
45	South Alabama	1-1
46	Boise State	1-1
47	South Carolina	1-1
48	Georgia Tech	1-0
49	Mississippi State	1-1
50	UTSA	1-1
51	Northern Illinois	1-0
52	Stanford	1-0
53	UCLA	1-0
53	Kansas	1-0
55	Eastern Michigan	1-1
56	Navy	1-0
57	California	1-1
58	West Virginia	1-1
59	Ohio	1-1
60	Wake Forest	1-1
60	Alabama	1-0
62	Washington State	1-1
62	TCU	1-1
64	Kent State	1-1
65	Utah State	1-1
66	Akron	1-1
67	Cincinnati	1-1
68	Western Kentucky	1-1
69	Southern Methodist	1-1
70	Florida State	1-0
71	Brigham Young	1-1
72	Tulane	1-1
73	North Carolina	1-1
74	Tulsa	1-1
75	Central Michigan	1-1
76	Rutgers	1-1
77	Arkansas State	1-1
78	Arizona State	1-0
79	Notre Dame	1-1
80	Louisiana-Monroe	1-1
81	Kansas State	1-1
82	Florida	1-1
83	Vanderbilt	1-1
84	Army	1-1
85	Oregon State	1-1
86	Wyoming	1-1
87	New Mexico	1-1
88	Iowa	1-1
89	San Jose State	1-1
90	Nevada	1-1
91	Kentucky	1-1
92	Indiana	1-1
93	North Texas	1-1
94	USC	1-1
95	Virginia Tech	1-1
96	Air Force	1-1
97	Purdue	1-1
98	Texas	1-1
99	Middle Tennessee	1-1
100	Memphis	0-1
100	Rice	0-1
102	Syracuse	0-2
103	Connecticut	0-1
104	Iowa State	0-1
105	UAB	0-2
106	Florida International	0-2
107	Southern Miss	0-2
108	Florida Atlantic	0-2
109	Buffalo	0-2
110	Massachusetts	0-2
111	San Diego State	0-2
112	UNLV	0-2
113	Pittsburgh	0-1
114	South Florida	0-2
115	Colorado State	0-2
116	UTEP	0-1
117	Toledo	0-2
118	Louisiana-Lafayette	0-2
119	Western Michigan	0-2
120	Temple	0-2
121	Miami (OH)	0-2
122	New Mexico State	0-2
123	Hawaii	0-2
124	Idaho	0-2

2013 History

Week 1

March Radness in September

Remember the NCAA basketball tournament from about 6 months ago? I mostly made safe picks this year, and predictably scored "okay" on a scale from awful to fortune teller. However, the rest of the pool in madding's March Radness contest didn't pick enough of the right upsets to defeat me, and I wound up a winner. My prize was a 2013 Heritage blaster, as well as first pick among some singles before 2nd through 4th place got to pick.

First off, the single card

2008 Topps Heritage
T205 Mini #HTCP1 Albert Pujols

This Pujols card is very red, and a little gold. I like it.

With 8 packs in the blaster, I decided to rank them worst to best, based on the insert, short print, or Cardinals contained within.

Pack 8:
114 Cody Ross
126 Craig Kimbrel
162 Hitting Area (Bryce Harper/Chipper Jones)
186 Casper Wells
204 Gregor Blanco
318 Kendrys Morales
371 Cole De Vries
408 2013 Rookie Stars (David Lough/Jack Odorizzi)
497 Jonathan Lucroy SP

2013 Topps Heritage
#497 Jonathan Lucroy SP

Nothing personal, Jonathan, but someone had to finish last.

Pack 7:
25 Andrew Cashner
60 Will Middlebrooks
132 Rickie Weeks
140 Carlos Pena
210 Jacoby Ellsbury
231 Jeff Francoeur
322 Scott Baker
400 Kris Medlen
430 Mike Trout SP

2013 Topps Heritage
#430 Mike Trout SP

An All-Star Rookie trophy solidifies Mike Trout at #7.

Pack 6:
64 Brian Wilson
135 Domonic Brown
155 Red Sox Sockers (Will Middlebrooks/David Ortiz)
252 Yonder Alonso
373 Ted Lilly
379 Nyjer Morgan
398 2013 Rookie Stars (Jeurys Familia/Collin McHugh)
421 Welington Castillo
New Age Perfomers NAP-DW David Wright

2013 Topps Heritage
New Age Performers #NAP-DW David Wright

Wright beats Trout based on rarity; this is a 1:8 insert.

Pack 5:
18 Adam Lind
30 Chad Billingsley
94 2013 Rookie Stars (Henry Rodriguez/Tony Cingrani)
255 Salvador Perez
292 Trevor Cahill
368 Ryan Dempster
391 Andy Pettitte
402 Will Venable
Memorable Moments MM-DP David Price

2013 Topps Heritage
Memorable Moments #MM-DP David Price

I think this set is new to Heritage this year. I like commemorating yearly achievements, and 20 wins is pretty rare these days.

Pack 4:
69 Alex Rodriguez
96 Jeff Samardzija
174 Derek Norris
203 Alcides Escobar
229 Jed Lowrie
360 Mark Teixeira
397 Clint Barmes
417 Juan Francisco
Then and Now TN-MG Juan Marichal/Gio Gonzalez

2013 Topps Heritage
Then and Now #TN-MG Juan Marichal/Gio Gonzalez

A 1960s star out of a 2013 pack is always fun.

Pack 3:
24 Anibal Sanchez
87 Bruce Bochy
106 Mike Leake
160 David Freese

2013 Topps Heritage #160 David Freese

223 James Loney
246 Josh Hamilton
344 Andrew Bailey
364 Russell Martin
Target Red Border 190 Derek Jeter

2013 Topps Heritage
Target Red Border #190 Derek Jeter

This was the first pack with 2 "hits" by my generous definition. We've all grown attached to David Freese in St. Louis, but there are rumblings of an offseason trade with such cheap infield talent at AAA ready to arrive. That may also make the Cardinals lots of merchandising money, because plenty of folks will want to go replace their Freese jerseys and t-shirts purchased after his amazing 2011 postseason.


Pack 2:
40 Carlos Beltran

2013 Topps Heritage #40 Carlos Beltran

159 Desmond Jennings
176 Ervin Santana
197 Mark Buehrle

2013 Topps Heritage #197 Mark Buehrle

264 Vernon Wells
267 Marco Estrada
276 Nick Swisher
396 Jeff Karstens
437 Billy Butler SP

2013 Topps Heritage #437 Billy Butler SP

A 3-hit pack, only because I count Mark Buehrle. And I'll deduct points for a card of a DH, even if it is the likable Billy Butler.

Pack 1:
1 2012 NL ERA Leaders (Clayton Kershaw/R.A. Dickey/Johnny Cueto)
13 Adam LaRoche
21 Joe Girardi

2013 Topps Heritage #21 Joe Girardi

Is that Joe Girardi, or Vince McMahon in a Yankees cap?

218 Brandon Beachy
254 Nathan Eovaldi
268 Justin Ruggiano
Baseball Flashback #BF-EB Ernie Banks

2013 Topps Heritage
Baseball Flashback #BF-EB Ernie Banks

Even a Cardinals fan has to enjoy a card of Mr. Cub.

Clubhouse Collection Relics CCR-BP Brandon Phillips

2013 Topps Heritage
Clubhouse Collection Relics #CCR-BP Brandon Phillips

Madding picked up a good blaster for me, since these are seeded 1:55 packs, or a little more than once every 7 8-pack blasters. Based on that alone, this pack has to win the blaster.

For once, I managed to cram one of Cards on Cards' contest results into a single post. Thanks to madding for the blaster and the mini!