2017-11-27

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Philadelphia over New England

Philadelphia earned 2 entries in the milestones below, crossing 99.99% chances of making the playoffs. I show 100 due to rounding, but out of the billion runs they made it just under 99.998% of the time. They're also the first team this year to top a 20% chance of being the champs. In the AFC, Jacksonville lost and New England took over the AFC lead.

We've finally got some official eliminations, with San Francisco, Cleveland, and the New York Giants completely out, and Washington and Chicago both eliminated from winning their divisions.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
PHI10-10.74799.99100.0097.1560.7636.5922.20
NE9-20.67697.9299.8895.3055.4129.7414.26
JAC7-40.70777.7698.0077.9645.5326.8513.85
LAR8-30.70780.7994.8865.6134.8318.1710.14
PIT9-20.64096.4799.7890.7347.7323.0010.12
MIN9-20.65697.5999.2685.7642.3518.639.33
NO8-30.67367.0393.8758.4127.7913.236.87
KC6-50.57168.3076.3340.5216.326.692.49
CAR8-30.59025.1479.8938.3014.615.672.45
BAL5-50.5983.4659.5930.3213.025.752.29
LAC5-60.61025.1137.6820.178.904.031.65
SEA7-40.61219.1045.8320.728.243.461.57
ATL7-40.5717.8348.9420.817.302.771.15
TEN7-40.44620.6063.1022.186.511.950.52
DET6-50.5542.2627.4510.453.441.280.51
BUF6-50.4252.0838.5212.883.521.000.25
HOU4-60.5091.6410.354.141.430.520.16
OAK5-60.4256.588.843.190.870.240.06
CIN5-60.4610.076.232.170.650.210.06
WAS5-60.466-4.241.240.320.090.03
GB5-60.4410.152.930.810.190.050.02
DAL5-60.4570.012.020.570.150.040.01
NYJ4-70.4400.000.970.310.090.030.01
TB4-70.4190.000.230.060.010.000.00
ARI5-60.3500.120.460.100.020.000.00
MIA4-70.2810.000.620.120.020.000.00
DEN3-80.3350.020.060.010.000.000.00
IND3-80.3060.000.050.010.000.000.00
CHI3-80.335-0.000.000.00--
SF1-100.311------
NYG2-90.303------
CLE0-110.267------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Kansas City (Week 4, Final)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 5, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Pittsburgh (Week 11, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from playoff contention: San Francisco, Cleveland, New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Thursday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 4, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 4, Final] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Thursday] Kansas City over Detroit
[Week 5, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 5, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Thursday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Sunday] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 6, Final] Kansas City over Philadelphia
[Week 7, Thursday] Philadelphia over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 7, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 8, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 8, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Sunday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 9, Final] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Thursday] Philadelphia over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Sunday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 10, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Thursday] Los Angeles Rams over Jacksonville
[Week 11, Sunday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 11, Final] Jacksonville over Philadelphia
[Week 12, Thursday] Jacksonville over Philadelphia


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