Tenets of Wilson

2021-10-12

2021 World Series Projection, October 12

San Francisco over Houston

Division Series
BOS 3-1 TB
CWS 1-2 HOU
LAD 1-2 SF
ATL 2-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	29.35	20.70	14.07
SF	0.6387	70.65	43.96	26.18
HOU	0.6249	77.15	51.61	25.43
CWS	0.6041	22.85	14.26	6.36
ATL	0.5866	75.77	27.06	12.96
MIL	0.5791	24.23	8.28	3.83
BOS	0.5476	100.00	34.12	11.18

Atlanta went up 2-1 on Milwaukee, Boston eliminated Tampa, San Francisco took back the lead 2-1 against LA... and the weather in Chicago robbed us of a 4-game day. Despite their rainout, Houston jumped back above 50% likely to make the World Series, because as mentioned before, they will be much more heavily favored against Boston than they would have been against Tampa Bay.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston
Oct 11: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-11

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Buffalo and Arizona won again, and are both now well over 90% likely to make the playoffs, while Jacksonville and Detroit compete to be the sorriest teams of the year, both at 0-5. Jacksonville has their 20-loss streak and a head coach on the hot seat, while Detroit has, well, their whole history, plus 2 last-second losses in 3 weeks, both on long field goals (66-yard and 54-yard) improbable enough that prior to the kick, Detroit was 85% and 74% likely to win the respective games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	4-1	0.633	90.6	96.6	76.1	46.9	28.6	16.6
ARI	5-0	0.594	71.6	94.7	71.9	40.5	22.4	12.0
DAL	4-1	0.575	82.2	88.8	55.6	29.8	15.6	8.1
TB	4-1	0.565	49.8	78.3	47.4	24.8	12.7	6.5
LAC	4-1	0.544	53.4	84.4	53.2	27.0	13.1	6.4
LAR	4-1	0.542	23.5	80.2	47.0	23.1	11.3	5.5
DEN	3-2	0.562	29.0	66.1	38.5	19.9	10.1	5.1
NO	3-2	0.569	23.7	60.5	34.4	17.9	9.3	4.7
CLE	3-2	0.547	29.7	61.3	34.3	17.1	8.4	4.2
BAL	3-1	0.523	36.5	69.9	39.4	18.8	8.8	4.1
CAR	3-2	0.559	24.8	56.8	31.5	16.0	8.1	4.1
CIN	3-2	0.529	28.5	62.3	34.7	16.7	7.9	3.7
TEN	3-2	0.503	70.8	75.5	38.9	17.5	7.8	3.5
GB	4-1	0.496	57.0	69.2	35.1	15.4	6.7	3.0
LV	3-2	0.487	12.0	47.6	23.2	10.1	4.4	1.9
NE	2-3	0.509	7.9	36.2	18.0	8.2	3.8	1.7
MIN	2-3	0.508	19.0	32.6	15.6	7.0	3.2	1.4
CHI	3-2	0.462	23.6	37.3	16.5	6.7	2.7	1.1
KC	2-3	0.487	5.7	26.1	12.1	5.2	2.3	1.0
IND	1-3	0.473	17.6	28.1	12.8	5.3	2.2	0.9
SF	2-3	0.496	2.1	23.1	10.7	4.7	2.1	0.9
PHI	2-3	0.483	9.0	24.5	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
SEA	2-3	0.489	2.8	23.0	10.6	4.6	2.0	0.9
PIT	2-3	0.462	5.4	21.9	9.8	4.0	1.6	0.7
WAS	2-3	0.451	7.3	16.5	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4
HOU	1-4	0.411	9.4	11.6	4.5	1.6	0.6	0.2
ATL	2-3	0.430	1.7	7.9	3.1	1.2	0.4	0.2
NYG	1-4	0.437	1.5	5.4	2.1	0.8	0.3	0.1
NYJ	1-4	0.395	0.8	4.8	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	1-4	0.387	0.7	4.7	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.1
JAC	0-5	0.407	2.2	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1
DET	0-5	0.430	0.4	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver
[Week 3, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Thursday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 4, Sunday] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 4, Final] Buffalo over Arizona
[Week 5, Thursday] Buffalo over Arizona

2021 World Series Projection, October 11

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 2-1 TB
CWS 1-2 HOU
LAD 1-1 SF
ATL 1-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	56.25	39.87	26.35
SF	0.6387	43.75	27.40	15.76
TB	0.6266	33.75	17.37	8.29
HOU	0.6249	77.15	47.11	22.31
CWS	0.6041	22.85	12.91	5.51
ATL	0.5866	51.16	17.12	7.84
MIL	0.5791	48.84	15.61	6.88
BOS	0.5476	66.25	22.61	7.05

This one's posting a little late too. I predict... a rainout tonight. Houston lost a game but barely lost any ground for winning the AL, because Boston, the weakest remaining team, is now up 2-1 on Tampa Bay, significantly weakening Houston's average next opponent.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston
Oct 10: Los Angeles over Houston

2021-10-10

2021 World Series Projection, October 10

Los Angeles over Houston

Division Series
BOS 1-1 TB
CWS 0-2 HOU
LAD 1-1 SF
ATL 1-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	56.25	39.87	25.62
SF	0.6387	43.75	27.40	15.20
TB	0.6266	62.03	31.58	15.07
HOU	0.6249	89.08	50.04	23.70
CWS	0.6041	10.92	5.62	2.40
ATL	0.5866	51.16	17.12	7.47
MIL	0.5791	48.84	15.61	6.56
BOS	0.5476	37.97	12.75	3.98

As I'm posting this over a day late and backdating it, I won't put any phony predictions up. Both NLDSs evened up at 1-1 on Saturday, making them effectively 3 game series with reversed homefield advantage. Which actually means that now in both series the stronger team by my numbers has the homefield advantage. Also, Los Angeles retakes the NL lead and is the projected World Series winner again.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 9: San Francisco over Houston

2021-10-09

2021 World Series Projection, October 9

San Francisco over Houston

Division Series
BOS 1-1 TB
CWS 0-2 HOU
LAD 0-1 SF
ATL 0-1 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	37.76	26.87	17.26
SF	0.6387	62.24	39.16	21.73
TB	0.6266	62.03	31.58	15.52
HOU	0.6249	89.08	50.04	24.41
CWS	0.6041	10.92	5.62	2.48
ATL	0.5866	32.42	11.35	4.95
MIL	0.5791	67.58	22.62	9.50
BOS	0.5476	37.97	12.75	4.13

Houston extended their lead to 2-0 over Chicago, and it's not looking good for my second-choice team this year. That combined with Tampa losing to Boston to even that ALDS, makes Houston the AL favorite. We also had a change in the NL, as San Francisco - who is the weaker team on paper - won their first game to go up 1-0 on Los Angeles. Milwaukee also beat Atlanta, which is also an upset on paper despite their higher seed.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay
Oct 8: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

2021-10-08

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 5, Thursday

Buffalo over Arizona

Los Angeles beat Seattle on Thursday night, but Arizona has a better record, higher strength, and the head to head a tiebreaker for now, so they remain the head of the NFC West and the NFC as a whole.

One thing I don't like about this 17 game season is that we don't have a neat 1/4 and 3/4 point of the season anymore. (We usually didn't have 1/2 because of byes). We've had 65 of 272 games played, a bit under 24%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-1	0.610	85.7	91.2	64.4	37.8	21.9	12.6
ARI	4-0	0.575	58.4	89.2	65.1	36.1	19.8	10.4
DEN	3-1	0.578	40.0	75.7	49.1	26.8	14.3	7.7
CAR	3-1	0.562	44.0	73.1	45.6	24.4	12.9	6.6
LAR	4-1	0.542	29.7	80.9	50.5	25.8	13.1	6.4
CLE	3-1	0.564	37.5	71.6	44.7	23.6	12.2	6.4
DAL	3-1	0.544	65.3	75.5	44.5	23.0	11.7	5.8
LAC	3-1	0.542	33.0	70.4	42.4	21.3	10.5	5.3
CIN	3-1	0.535	31.3	67.4	39.8	19.7	9.6	4.8
TB	3-1	0.526	34.8	65.6	37.2	18.4	9.0	4.3
BAL	3-1	0.523	29.3	66.0	37.7	18.1	8.6	4.2
NO	2-2	0.551	19.6	51.9	29.6	15.4	7.9	4.0
LV	3-1	0.507	17.9	57.1	30.8	14.2	6.5	3.1
GB	3-1	0.491	55.7	64.3	32.7	14.9	6.7	3.0
SF	2-2	0.508	7.9	38.7	20.2	9.5	4.5	2.1
TEN	2-2	0.473	50.6	54.6	25.2	10.6	4.4	1.9
KC	2-2	0.512	9.0	35.2	18.1	8.4	3.9	1.9
MIN	1-3	0.504	20.6	29.9	14.7	6.8	3.2	1.4
NE	1-3	0.503	8.5	24.6	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2
SEA	2-3	0.489	3.9	25.6	12.5	5.6	2.6	1.1
WAS	2-2	0.467	17.7	31.0	14.4	6.2	2.7	1.1
IND	1-3	0.473	22.8	28.9	13.1	5.5	2.3	1.0
CHI	2-2	0.443	21.3	29.7	12.8	5.2	2.1	0.8
PHI	1-3	0.479	8.3	16.9	7.8	3.5	1.5	0.7
NYG	1-3	0.476	8.6	17.0	7.9	3.5	1.5	0.7
HOU	1-3	0.420	17.9	20.3	7.9	2.9	1.1	0.4
PIT	1-3	0.446	1.9	10.0	4.3	1.7	0.7	0.3
JAC	0-4	0.432	8.7	9.8	3.9	1.5	0.6	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.419	3.0	9.2	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
ATL	1-3	0.425	1.6	6.6	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYJ	1-3	0.408	2.8	8.1	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.2
DET	0-4	0.438	2.4	4.2	1.7	0.7	0.3	0.1

2021 World Series Projection, October 8

Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Division Series
BOS 0-1 TB
CWS 0-1 HOU
LAD 0-0 SF
ATL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	57.80	40.97	26.09
SF	0.6387	42.20	26.43	14.50
TB	0.6266	79.81	41.29	19.66
HOU	0.6249	71.98	38.22	18.06
CWS	0.6041	28.02	13.55	5.78
ATL	0.5866	51.45	17.16	7.37
MIL	0.5791	48.55	15.45	6.39
BOS	0.5476	20.19	6.94	2.16

Tampa and Houston won their opening games at home to go up 1-0. Today's possibly the last 4-game day of the year, with the other being next Monday if both ALDS go to 4 games. I'll be interested to see if the LA-San Francisco matchup lives up to the 200+ combined wins they've got this year.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 7: Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

2021-10-07

2021 World Series Projection, October 7

Los Angeles over Tampa Bay

Division Series
BOS 0-0 TB
CWS 0-0 HOU
LAD 0-0 SF
ATL 0-0 MIL

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-1 LAD

Team	Strength	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	57.80	40.97	26.61
SF	0.6387	42.20	26.43	14.87
TB	0.6266	64.91	34.13	16.25
HOU	0.6249	54.12	30.14	14.24
CWS	0.6041	45.88	23.40	9.97
ATL	0.5866	51.45	17.16	7.62
MIL	0.5791	48.55	15.45	6.61
BOS	0.5476	35.09	12.34	3.84

Los Angeles beat St. Louis to move on to the NLDS, and becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the NL pennant and World Series. On one hand, I'd certainly have preferred to see St. Louis advance, but on the other hand, I fear what sort of reactionary change Rob Manfred would have made in response to the 2nd best teams in the league going out so early. Although, now that St. Louis has lost this wildcard game for the first time, and I've experienced being a fan of the team who was in and out of the playoffs in a blink, I can see why other people don't like it much. But it at least made the last month of the season fun, because otherwise everything would have been pretty locked up much earlier in the NL.

Both ALDS start today. I'll root for Tampa Bay over Boston, and Chicago over Houston. Tony La Russa was one of my favorite managers even before he came to St. Louis, so I'll root for him to needlessly enhance his Hall of Fame credentials.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Oct 6: San Francisco over Tampa Bay

2021-10-06

2021 World Series Projection, October 6

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-1 BOS
STL 0-0 LAD

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	65.58	37.90	26.86	17.45
SF	0.6387	100.00	52.17	32.67	18.38
TB	0.6266	100.00	64.91	34.13	17.18
HOU	0.6249	100.00	54.12	30.14	15.05
CWS	0.6041	100.00	45.88	23.40	10.60
ATL	0.5866	100.00	51.45	19.32	8.58
MIL	0.5791	100.00	48.55	17.48	7.47
BOS	0.5476	100.00	35.09	12.34	4.14
STL	0.5232	34.42	9.93	3.68	1.15

Boston beat New York, and will move on to play Tampa Bay. This is the first time in the 2-wildcard era we've had essentially a 3 team playoff between division rivals in the AL. It has happened in the NL 3 times. In 2013, Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati to face St. Louis. In 2015, Chicago beat Pittsburgh to face St. Louis. And in 2017, Arizona beat Colorado to face Los Angeles.

Today we have the NL wildcard game, St. Louis at Los Angeles. It's no secret who I'm rooting for; let's see if the Cardinals can raise that 1.15% chance of winning the World Series just a little bit.

Oct 5: San Francisco over Tampa Bay

2021-10-05

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 4, Final

Buffalo over Arizona

Arizona is now the only undefeated team left. It feels early in the season to be down to just one, but we'll see how long until the final team falls and everyone can publish their canned stories about the 1972 Miami Dolphins. Buffalo remained on top in the AFC because Las Vegas lost on Monday night, and are now in a 3-way tie with Denver and LA for first in the division.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-1	0.610	85.7	91.2	64.4	37.8	21.9	12.6
ARI	4-0	0.575	61.7	89.0	65.5	36.5	20.1	10.6
DEN	3-1	0.578	40.0	75.7	49.1	26.7	14.3	7.8
CAR	3-1	0.562	44.1	73.0	45.9	24.7	13.1	6.7
CLE	3-1	0.564	37.5	71.6	44.7	23.5	12.2	6.5
DAL	3-1	0.544	65.4	75.5	45.0	23.3	11.9	5.9
LAC	3-1	0.542	33.0	70.4	42.3	21.3	10.5	5.3
CIN	3-1	0.535	31.3	67.4	39.8	19.7	9.6	4.8
LAR	3-1	0.526	19.7	66.7	38.9	19.2	9.5	4.5
TB	3-1	0.526	34.9	65.2	37.5	18.7	9.2	4.4
BAL	3-1	0.523	29.4	66.3	37.9	18.2	8.6	4.2
NO	2-2	0.551	19.4	51.5	29.7	15.5	8.0	4.0
LV	3-1	0.507	17.9	57.1	30.8	14.2	6.5	3.1
GB	3-1	0.491	55.7	64.3	33.1	15.1	6.8	3.0
SEA	2-2	0.505	10.0	40.7	21.4	10.1	4.8	2.2
SF	2-2	0.508	8.6	38.9	20.4	9.7	4.6	2.1
TEN	2-2	0.473	50.9	54.9	25.3	10.6	4.5	2.0
KC	2-2	0.512	9.0	35.1	18.1	8.4	3.9	1.9
MIN	1-3	0.504	20.8	30.3	15.0	7.0	3.3	1.5
NE	1-3	0.503	8.5	24.6	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2
WAS	2-2	0.467	17.5	30.8	14.4	6.3	2.7	1.1
IND	1-3	0.473	22.7	28.8	13.1	5.5	2.3	1.0
CHI	2-2	0.443	21.1	29.4	12.9	5.2	2.1	0.8
NYG	1-3	0.476	8.7	17.2	8.0	3.5	1.6	0.7
PHI	1-3	0.479	8.3	16.9	7.8	3.5	1.6	0.7
HOU	1-3	0.420	17.8	20.2	7.9	2.9	1.1	0.4
PIT	1-3	0.446	1.8	9.8	4.2	1.7	0.7	0.3
JAC	0-4	0.432	8.7	9.7	3.9	1.5	0.6	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.419	3.0	9.2	3.6	1.3	0.5	0.2
ATL	1-3	0.425	1.6	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYJ	1-3	0.408	2.8	8.1	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.2
DET	0-4	0.438	2.4	4.2	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1

2021 World Series Projection, October 5

San Francisco over Tampa Bay

Wildcard Round
NYY 0-0 BOS
STL 0-0 LAD

Team	Strength	LDS	LCS	WS	Win
LAD	0.6764	65.58	37.90	26.86	17.45
SF	0.6387	100.00	52.17	32.67	18.38
TB	0.6266	100.00	66.47	34.95	17.59
HOU	0.6249	100.00	54.12	30.30	15.13
CWS	0.6041	100.00	45.88	23.54	10.66
ATL	0.5866	100.00	51.45	19.32	8.58
MIL	0.5791	100.00	48.55	17.48	7.47
BOS	0.5476	51.91	18.22	6.40	2.15
NYY	0.5286	48.09	15.32	4.81	1.44
STL	0.5232	34.42	9.93	3.68	1.15

After taking 2020 off, I've decided to bring back my MLB playoff projections. It helps that they've gone back to a familiar format, because this software sure is brittle. I still dream of a single codebase that handles MLB, NFL, NHL, and maybe even NBA, but I'm not there yet. I've listed the teams by their strength, which is really just a measure of runs scored vs runs allowed for the full regular season. Runs are, after all, the way you win a baseball game. Despite being the strongest team, LA is stuck in the wildcard game, thanks to a worse record than San Francisco. If they advance, they'll be favored in that series, but for now, San Francisco is the most likely NL Champion. In the AL, Tampa is the #1 seed and the strongest team, so they've got the clearest shot of any team at the moment, nearly 35% likely to advance to the World Series.

The first game to be played will be the AL Wildcard game, hosted by Boston due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. I don't tend to root for either of these teams, so I'll go with my favorite tiebreaker, former Cardinals. It appears the only one on either active roster is Adam Ottavino, so I'll be rooting for Boston. Luke Voit is another player I like, but he's injured and apparently out for the playoffs.

2021-10-04

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Buffalo over Arizona

Both Denver and Carolina - the conference leaders - lost, and Buffalo and Arizona stepped into the driver's seat (driver's seats? drivers' seats?). Buffalo is 3-1 just like Denver, but is much more likely to win the bad AFC East, while Denver is a loss behind Las Vegas and a win ahead of LA in the AFC West. Arizona is the only undefeated team in the NFC, and one of only 2 left overall, with Las Vegas still to play Sunday night.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-1	0.610	85.6	91.2	64.1	37.7	21.9	12.6
ARI	4-0	0.575	61.7	89.0	65.5	36.5	20.1	10.6
DEN	3-1	0.578	39.4	76.0	49.3	26.9	14.4	7.8
CAR	3-1	0.562	44.1	73.0	45.9	24.7	13.1	6.7
CLE	3-1	0.564	37.3	71.8	44.8	23.6	12.3	6.5
DAL	3-1	0.544	65.2	75.2	44.8	23.2	11.9	5.9
LV	3-0	0.529	34.2	73.4	44.6	21.8	10.5	5.2
CIN	3-1	0.535	31.1	67.7	39.8	19.7	9.6	4.8
LAR	3-1	0.526	19.7	66.7	38.9	19.2	9.5	4.5
TB	3-1	0.526	34.9	65.2	37.5	18.7	9.2	4.4
BAL	3-1	0.523	29.7	67.0	38.1	18.3	8.7	4.2
NO	2-2	0.551	19.4	51.6	29.7	15.5	8.0	4.0
GB	3-1	0.491	55.7	64.3	33.1	15.1	6.8	3.0
LAC	2-1	0.515	17.4	51.3	27.9	13.1	6.1	2.9
SEA	2-2	0.505	10.0	40.7	21.4	10.1	4.8	2.2
SF	2-2	0.508	8.6	38.9	20.4	9.7	4.6	2.1
TEN	2-2	0.473	50.9	54.9	25.3	10.7	4.5	2.0
KC	2-2	0.512	9.0	34.9	18.0	8.4	3.9	1.9
MIN	1-3	0.504	21.1	30.7	15.2	7.1	3.3	1.5
NE	1-3	0.503	8.6	25.0	12.1	5.6	2.6	1.2
WAS	2-2	0.467	17.5	30.5	14.3	6.2	2.7	1.1
IND	1-3	0.473	22.4	28.6	12.9	5.4	2.3	1.0
CHI	2-2	0.443	20.8	29.1	12.7	5.2	2.1	0.8
NYG	1-3	0.476	8.9	17.3	8.0	3.6	1.6	0.7
PHI	1-3	0.479	8.5	17.0	7.9	3.5	1.6	0.7
HOU	1-3	0.420	18.1	20.5	8.0	3.0	1.1	0.4
PIT	1-3	0.446	1.9	10.2	4.3	1.7	0.7	0.3
JAC	0-4	0.432	8.7	9.7	3.9	1.5	0.6	0.2
MIA	1-3	0.419	3.0	9.4	3.6	1.4	0.5	0.2
ATL	1-3	0.425	1.6	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2
NYJ	1-3	0.408	2.8	8.2	3.1	1.1	0.4	0.2
DET	0-4	0.438	2.4	4.2	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1

2021-10-01

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Denver over Carolina

Cincinnati beat Jacksonville on Thursday night, and I wasn't really aware Jacksonville had such a losing streak going. I guess I'm usually more focused on the winning teams. Anyway, after losing their final 15 games last year - all but the opener - and starting 0-4 this year, they're up to 19 in a row. The NFL has changed so much through the years that it's really hard to compare eras, but the record could be considered to be 29 or 26 losses in a row. That's attainable this year for Jacksonville.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DEN	3-0	0.582	49.6	85.2	61.1	34.6	19.4	10.6
CAR	3-0	0.575	53.6	82.6	56.9	31.4	17.2	9.3
BUF	2-1	0.572	69.5	79.3	49.9	27.6	15.0	8.0
LAR	3-0	0.550	39.8	79.5	52.3	27.3	14.1	7.3
ARI	3-0	0.553	38.4	76.5	50.0	26.3	13.7	7.1
NO	2-1	0.560	24.5	65.2	39.8	21.1	11.2	5.9
LV	3-0	0.529	31.3	76.2	47.5	23.7	11.8	5.8
CIN	3-1	0.535	41.3	70.3	42.4	21.6	10.8	5.4
CLE	2-1	0.544	31.7	60.2	35.8	18.5	9.5	4.8
DAL	2-1	0.534	56.4	64.2	35.3	17.8	8.8	4.4
TB	2-1	0.521	19.7	53.4	29.4	14.3	6.9	3.4
SF	2-1	0.520	16.2	52.8	29.5	14.3	6.9	3.4
LAC	2-1	0.515	14.5	51.3	28.5	13.7	6.6	3.2
TEN	2-1	0.478	52.0	59.9	29.6	13.1	5.8	2.5
BAL	2-1	0.495	21.0	47.2	24.6	11.4	5.2	2.4
MIN	1-2	0.514	34.1	42.8	21.8	10.4	5.0	2.4
GB	2-1	0.474	43.2	51.3	24.4	10.7	4.6	2.0
NE	1-2	0.508	18.7	36.4	18.7	8.9	4.2	2.0
HOU	1-2	0.483	32.3	40.0	19.2	8.6	3.8	1.7
PHI	1-2	0.500	20.8	30.7	15.0	7.0	3.2	1.5
KC	1-2	0.496	4.6	24.9	12.6	5.8	2.7	1.2
SEA	1-2	0.493	5.6	25.2	12.6	5.8	2.6	1.2
WAS	1-2	0.461	15.9	23.3	10.5	4.5	1.9	0.8
PIT	1-2	0.465	6.0	20.7	9.6	4.2	1.8	0.8
MIA	1-2	0.437	8.9	19.5	8.3	3.4	1.4	0.5
CHI	1-2	0.433	15.1	20.2	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
IND	0-3	0.457	9.9	15.3	6.8	2.9	1.2	0.5
NYG	0-3	0.465	6.8	10.4	4.6	2.0	0.9	0.4
DET	0-3	0.457	7.6	11.0	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.4
ATL	1-2	0.432	2.2	11.0	4.7	1.9	0.8	0.3
JAC	0-4	0.431	5.7	7.4	3.0	1.2	0.5	0.2
NYJ	0-3	0.416	2.9	6.3	2.5	1.0	0.4	0.1

2021-09-28

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Final

Denver over Carolina

Dallas beat Philadelphia, but it would have taken a huge margin to raise them up to Carolina's level, and the NFC and Super Bowl projection overall remain the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DEN	3-0	0.582	49.6	85.6	61.8	35.1	19.7	10.7
CAR	3-0	0.575	53.6	82.6	56.9	31.4	17.2	9.3
BUF	2-1	0.572	69.5	79.5	50.3	27.9	15.2	8.2
LAR	3-0	0.550	39.7	79.4	52.2	27.3	14.1	7.3
ARI	3-0	0.553	38.5	76.6	50.1	26.3	13.7	7.1
LV	3-0	0.529	31.3	76.6	48.1	24.1	12.0	5.9
NO	2-1	0.560	24.5	65.2	39.9	21.1	11.2	5.9
CLE	2-1	0.544	34.8	61.1	36.5	18.9	9.7	4.9
DAL	2-1	0.534	56.4	64.2	35.3	17.8	8.8	4.4
CIN	2-1	0.530	34.9	61.3	35.7	18.0	8.9	4.4
TB	2-1	0.521	19.7	53.4	29.4	14.3	7.0	3.4
SF	2-1	0.520	16.2	52.8	29.5	14.3	6.9	3.4
LAC	2-1	0.515	14.5	51.9	29.0	14.0	6.8	3.2
TEN	2-1	0.478	50.4	59.0	29.4	13.0	5.7	2.5
BAL	2-1	0.495	23.3	48.1	25.1	11.7	5.4	2.5
MIN	1-2	0.514	34.0	42.7	21.8	10.4	5.0	2.4
GB	2-1	0.474	43.3	51.4	24.4	10.7	4.6	2.0
NE	1-2	0.508	18.7	36.9	19.0	9.1	4.3	2.0
HOU	1-2	0.483	31.4	39.6	19.1	8.6	3.8	1.7
PHI	1-2	0.500	20.8	30.7	15.0	7.0	3.2	1.5
KC	1-2	0.496	4.6	25.4	12.9	6.0	2.8	1.3
SEA	1-2	0.493	5.6	25.1	12.6	5.8	2.6	1.2
WAS	1-2	0.461	15.9	23.4	10.5	4.5	1.9	0.8
PIT	1-2	0.465	7.0	21.2	9.9	4.3	1.9	0.8
MIA	1-2	0.437	8.9	19.9	8.5	3.4	1.4	0.6
CHI	1-2	0.433	15.1	20.2	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
IND	0-3	0.457	9.5	15.1	6.7	2.8	1.2	0.5
NYG	0-3	0.465	6.8	10.4	4.6	2.0	0.9	0.4
DET	0-3	0.457	7.6	11.0	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.4
JAC	0-3	0.441	8.7	12.5	5.3	2.1	0.9	0.4
ATL	1-2	0.432	2.2	11.0	4.7	1.9	0.7	0.3
NYJ	0-3	0.416	2.9	6.4	2.6	1.0	0.4	0.1

2021-09-27

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Denver over Carolina

The teams stayed the same but the projection flipped, as Denver took back the top spot from Carolina. There are still 5 undefeated teams, and on the other end of the spectrum, 5 winless teams. New York got shut out to take over the title of weakest team, already down to a 6% chance of making the playoffs, and an 0.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DEN	3-0	0.582	49.7	85.5	61.7	35.0	19.6	10.7
CAR	3-0	0.575	53.8	82.4	56.6	31.2	17.1	9.3
BUF	2-1	0.572	69.3	79.5	50.4	27.9	15.2	8.1
LAR	3-0	0.550	39.4	79.3	52.1	27.2	14.0	7.3
ARI	3-0	0.553	38.9	76.9	50.3	26.4	13.7	7.1
LV	3-0	0.529	31.4	76.5	48.0	24.1	12.0	5.9
NO	2-1	0.560	24.6	64.8	39.5	20.9	11.0	5.8
CLE	2-1	0.544	34.8	61.2	36.6	18.9	9.7	4.9
CIN	2-1	0.529	34.9	61.3	35.8	18.0	8.9	4.4
PHI	1-1	0.543	48.4	57.7	32.1	16.4	8.3	4.2
SF	2-1	0.520	16.1	52.8	29.5	14.3	6.9	3.4
TB	2-1	0.521	19.4	52.4	28.7	14.0	6.8	3.3
LAC	2-1	0.515	14.3	51.3	28.6	13.8	6.7	3.2
TEN	2-1	0.478	50.4	59.0	29.4	13.1	5.8	2.5
BAL	2-1	0.495	23.3	48.2	25.2	11.7	5.4	2.5
MIN	1-2	0.514	34.4	43.2	22.1	10.5	5.0	2.4
NE	1-2	0.508	18.9	37.4	19.3	9.2	4.4	2.1
GB	2-1	0.474	43.1	51.3	24.4	10.7	4.6	2.0
DAL	1-1	0.502	29.8	39.3	19.7	9.2	4.3	2.0
HOU	1-2	0.483	31.4	39.7	19.1	8.6	3.8	1.7
KC	1-2	0.496	4.6	25.3	12.9	6.0	2.8	1.3
SEA	1-2	0.493	5.6	25.0	12.6	5.7	2.6	1.2
PIT	1-2	0.465	7.0	21.3	10.0	4.3	1.9	0.8
WAS	1-2	0.461	15.3	22.7	10.2	4.3	1.8	0.8
MIA	1-2	0.437	8.9	19.9	8.5	3.4	1.4	0.6
CHI	1-2	0.433	15.0	20.1	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
IND	0-3	0.457	9.5	15.2	6.8	2.8	1.2	0.5
NYG	0-3	0.465	6.5	10.1	4.5	1.9	0.8	0.4
JAC	0-3	0.441	8.7	12.5	5.3	2.1	0.9	0.4
DET	0-3	0.457	7.4	10.6	4.6	1.9	0.8	0.3
ATL	1-2	0.432	2.3	11.3	4.8	1.9	0.8	0.3
NYJ	0-3	0.416	2.8	6.2	2.5	1.0	0.4	0.1

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Denver

2021-09-24

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Carolina over Denver

Thursday's game featured 2 teams that have both been in my Superbowl projection twice already in this young season. Carolina beat Houston easily, and takes an even stronger lead in the NFC and the league as a whole. They're somewhat helped by being the only 3-0 team, and one of only two to have played 3 games. Still, 3-0 is a solid start. I often hear stories quoted about how unlikely an 0-2 team is to make the playoffs, and other such stats illustrating how much we can learn about teams in just the first few weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	3-0	0.575	55.3	82.1	57.2	32.0	17.8	10.0
DEN	2-0	0.545	39.4	73.2	49.3	26.6	14.3	7.4
LV	2-0	0.525	33.6	70.0	45.1	23.3	12.0	5.9
BUF	1-1	0.549	44.6	62.7	38.7	21.1	11.4	5.9
LAR	2-0	0.536	30.7	66.0	40.9	21.0	10.7	5.6
ARI	2-0	0.535	29.2	64.3	39.5	20.2	10.2	5.3
NE	1-1	0.541	35.9	57.7	35.0	18.8	10.0	5.1
TB	2-0	0.531	28.9	63.9	38.5	19.4	9.8	5.1
SF	2-0	0.523	27.4	64.4	38.9	19.4	9.6	4.9
PHI	1-1	0.543	41.4	53.4	30.4	15.8	8.1	4.3
NO	1-1	0.534	13.9	45.9	26.1	13.2	6.7	3.5
CLE	1-1	0.509	26.3	46.2	26.3	13.1	6.5	3.1
CIN	1-1	0.500	25.5	45.0	25.2	12.3	6.0	2.8
KC	1-1	0.504	13.7	41.4	23.4	11.5	5.7	2.7
SEA	1-1	0.515	12.7	40.0	22.1	10.8	5.2	2.6
PIT	1-1	0.496	24.0	43.8	24.0	11.6	5.6	2.6
LAC	1-1	0.502	13.2	40.4	22.8	11.2	5.5	2.6
BAL	1-1	0.493	24.2	43.8	23.9	11.5	5.5	2.6
DAL	1-1	0.502	25.3	36.2	18.5	8.8	4.2	2.0
HOU	1-2	0.483	31.4	39.4	19.9	9.3	4.4	2.0
TEN	1-1	0.469	33.7	42.8	21.6	9.8	4.4	2.0
WAS	1-1	0.494	24.3	36.5	18.5	8.7	4.0	1.9
GB	1-1	0.470	32.9	39.0	18.4	8.1	3.5	1.6
CHI	1-1	0.468	30.6	36.9	17.3	7.6	3.3	1.5
MIN	0-2	0.494	22.4	28.1	13.7	6.3	2.9	1.4
IND	0-2	0.474	19.9	27.9	13.8	6.4	2.9	1.3
MIA	1-1	0.445	13.1	29.1	13.9	6.0	2.6	1.1
JAC	0-2	0.459	15.0	20.8	9.8	4.3	1.9	0.8
DET	0-2	0.467	14.1	18.5	8.4	3.7	1.6	0.7
NYG	0-2	0.475	9.0	15.9	7.5	3.4	1.5	0.7
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.3	15.5	7.3	3.2	1.4	0.6
ATL	0-2	0.447	1.9	8.9	4.0	1.7	0.7	0.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina
[Week 2, Final] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-21

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Final

Denver over Carolina

Green Bay redeemed themselves a bit with a Monday night win over Detroit, but at 1-1 they had no significant effect on the NFC, and Denver over Carolina remains the Super Bowl projection.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DEN	2-0	0.545	39.5	72.8	48.7	26.2	14.0	7.3
CAR	2-0	0.548	43.0	70.3	45.0	24.0	12.7	6.8
BUF	1-1	0.549	44.7	62.4	38.3	20.8	11.2	5.9
LV	2-0	0.525	33.7	69.5	44.5	22.9	11.7	5.9
LAR	2-0	0.536	30.5	66.4	41.9	21.7	11.2	5.8
ARI	2-0	0.535	29.5	65.2	40.9	21.1	10.8	5.6
TB	2-0	0.531	36.1	66.0	40.5	20.7	10.6	5.5
SF	2-0	0.523	27.3	64.9	39.9	20.1	10.1	5.1
NE	1-1	0.541	36.0	57.3	34.6	18.4	9.8	5.1
PHI	1-1	0.544	41.4	54.3	31.4	16.5	8.6	4.6
NO	1-1	0.534	18.2	47.5	27.5	14.1	7.3	3.8
HOU	1-1	0.510	43.3	53.4	29.4	14.6	7.2	3.5
CLE	1-1	0.509	26.3	45.9	25.9	12.9	6.4	3.1
CIN	1-1	0.500	25.5	44.6	24.8	12.1	5.8	2.8
SEA	1-1	0.515	12.6	40.5	22.7	11.2	5.5	2.8
KC	1-1	0.504	13.8	40.9	22.9	11.2	5.5	2.6
PIT	1-1	0.496	24.0	43.4	23.7	11.4	5.5	2.6
BAL	1-1	0.493	24.2	43.4	23.5	11.3	5.4	2.5
LAC	1-1	0.502	13.0	39.5	22.0	10.8	5.3	2.5
DAL	1-1	0.502	25.3	37.1	19.3	9.3	4.4	2.2
WAS	1-1	0.494	24.2	37.4	19.3	9.2	4.3	2.1
TEN	1-1	0.469	28.2	39.3	19.8	9.0	4.0	1.8
GB	1-1	0.470	32.8	39.2	18.8	8.4	3.7	1.7
CHI	1-1	0.468	30.5	37.1	17.7	7.8	3.5	1.6
MIN	0-2	0.494	22.7	28.8	14.2	6.7	3.1	1.5
IND	0-2	0.474	16.4	25.3	12.5	5.7	2.6	1.2
MIA	1-1	0.445	13.1	28.6	13.6	5.9	2.5	1.1
DET	0-2	0.467	14.0	18.7	8.6	3.8	1.7	0.8
JAC	0-2	0.459	12.1	18.8	8.8	3.9	1.7	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.475	9.0	16.5	7.9	3.6	1.6	0.7
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.2	15.0	7.0	3.1	1.3	0.6
ATL	0-2	0.447	2.7	9.8	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Denver over Carolina

2021-09-20

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Denver over Carolina

With 2-0 records, Denver and Carolina have taken over the AFC and NFC leads, respectively. Philadelphia and Houston both lost to fall to 1-1 and back into the middle of the pack. We had our first shutout of the year, with Miami failing to score. Combined with their 1 point win last week, the 35 point loss puts them at a -34 point differential and the weakest 1-1 team, down below several 0-2 teams. But, it's still early, so don't place all your bets on Denver to cover your Philadelphia losses just yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DEN	2-0	0.545	39.2	72.6	48.5	26.1	14.0	7.3
CAR	2-0	0.548	43.0	70.3	45.0	23.9	12.7	6.7
BUF	1-1	0.549	44.7	62.5	38.4	20.8	11.2	5.9
LV	2-0	0.525	33.9	69.7	44.6	23.0	11.8	5.9
LAR	2-0	0.536	30.4	66.0	41.5	21.5	11.1	5.8
ARI	2-0	0.535	29.4	64.8	40.4	20.8	10.7	5.6
TB	2-0	0.531	36.1	66.0	40.5	20.7	10.6	5.4
SF	2-0	0.523	27.6	65.0	39.9	20.0	10.0	5.1
NE	1-1	0.541	36.0	57.4	34.7	18.5	9.8	5.1
PHI	1-1	0.544	41.2	54.0	31.1	16.4	8.5	4.5
NO	1-1	0.534	18.2	47.4	27.4	14.1	7.2	3.7
HOU	1-1	0.510	43.3	53.5	29.5	14.6	7.2	3.5
CLE	1-1	0.509	26.3	45.7	25.8	12.8	6.3	3.1
CIN	1-1	0.500	25.5	44.4	24.7	12.0	5.8	2.8
SEA	1-1	0.515	12.6	40.0	22.4	11.0	5.4	2.7
KC	1-1	0.504	13.8	41.0	23.0	11.3	5.5	2.7
PIT	1-1	0.496	24.0	43.2	23.5	11.3	5.4	2.6
LAC	1-1	0.502	13.1	39.6	22.1	10.8	5.3	2.5
BAL	1-1	0.493	24.2	43.2	23.3	11.2	5.3	2.5
DAL	1-1	0.502	25.4	37.2	19.3	9.3	4.4	2.2
WAS	1-1	0.494	24.3	37.4	19.3	9.1	4.3	2.1
TEN	1-1	0.469	28.2	39.4	19.8	9.0	4.1	1.8
DET	0-1	0.491	27.7	34.4	17.1	8.0	3.7	1.8
CHI	1-1	0.468	28.6	35.5	16.9	7.5	3.3	1.5
MIN	0-2	0.494	21.2	27.4	13.5	6.3	3.0	1.4
GB	0-1	0.471	22.5	28.4	13.5	6.0	2.7	1.2
IND	0-2	0.474	16.4	25.4	12.6	5.7	2.6	1.2
MIA	1-1	0.445	13.1	28.7	13.7	5.9	2.5	1.1
JAC	0-2	0.459	12.1	18.8	8.8	3.9	1.7	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.475	9.1	16.6	7.9	3.6	1.6	0.7
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.2	15.0	7.0	3.1	1.3	0.6
ATL	0-2	0.447	2.6	9.7	4.4	1.9	0.8	0.3

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-17

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Philadelphia over Houston

For the second year in a row (see 2020 here) my least favorite projection day doesn't include a 2-0 team that artificially appears in much better position than they are. Both Washington and New York were 0-1 going into last night, so this was inevitable. We do have New York artificially low as the only 0-2 team, but no one's really paying attention to the bottom of the table, right?

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	1-0	0.529	46.6	63.0	38.5	20.1	10.5	5.5
NO	1-0	0.529	35.0	61.3	38.0	19.9	10.3	5.4
HOU	1-0	0.521	49.9	64.3	38.9	20.2	10.4	5.3
LAR	1-0	0.526	26.9	58.1	35.7	18.5	9.5	5.0
DEN	1-0	0.524	28.3	57.0	35.1	18.3	9.6	4.9
ARI	1-0	0.527	26.7	56.6	34.6	18.0	9.3	4.9
PIT	1-0	0.515	35.9	58.4	35.2	18.1	9.2	4.7
SEA	1-0	0.520	24.4	54.0	32.5	16.6	8.5	4.4
MIA	1-0	0.503	42.6	58.6	34.0	17.0	8.5	4.2
LV	1-0	0.509	24.2	53.5	31.8	16.1	8.1	4.0
CAR	1-0	0.513	28.6	53.2	31.3	15.8	7.9	4.0
CIN	1-0	0.505	33.0	53.8	31.5	15.8	7.9	3.9
LAC	1-0	0.510	23.7	51.4	30.5	15.4	7.8	3.9
KC	1-0	0.506	23.8	52.9	31.2	15.7	7.9	3.9
SF	1-0	0.509	22.0	51.9	30.5	15.2	7.6	3.8
TB	1-0	0.503	26.7	52.4	30.3	14.9	7.3	3.7
WAS	1-1	0.494	25.7	42.4	22.9	11.1	5.4	2.6
MIN	0-1	0.495	28.3	37.8	20.0	9.6	4.6	2.3
NE	0-1	0.497	19.1	34.4	18.6	9.1	4.5	2.2
DET	0-1	0.491	26.9	35.3	18.2	8.7	4.2	2.0
DAL	0-1	0.497	18.8	31.8	16.8	8.2	4.0	2.0
CLE	0-1	0.494	15.7	31.0	16.7	8.2	4.0	1.9
NYJ	0-1	0.487	19.0	32.9	17.5	8.4	4.1	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.491	15.4	30.9	16.5	8.0	3.9	1.9
BUF	0-1	0.485	19.3	31.6	16.5	7.9	3.8	1.8
IND	0-1	0.480	18.2	31.4	16.3	7.8	3.7	1.7
JAC	0-1	0.479	15.5	29.0	15.0	7.1	3.4	1.6
CHI	0-1	0.474	22.9	30.7	15.2	7.0	3.2	1.5
TEN	0-1	0.473	16.3	28.8	14.7	6.9	3.2	1.5
GB	0-1	0.471	21.9	29.2	14.3	6.5	3.0	1.4
ATL	0-1	0.471	9.7	23.9	12.0	5.5	2.5	1.2
NYG	0-2	0.474	8.9	18.4	9.1	4.2	2.0	0.9

[Week 1] Philadelphia over Houston

2021-09-14

Super Bowl LVI Projection, Week 1

Philadelphia over Houston

As is tradition, rather than re-explaining, allow me to copy and past from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

For the second year in a row, I needed to modify my software to accommodate some changes in the NFL. Last year they added 2 playoff teams, for a total of 14. This year each team plays 17 games. I had a lot of hard-coded 16s, as well as some other hard-coded numbers from 14 up to 23 to index into certain data structures. Avoid hard-coded constants for things that might ever change, kids. Hopefully that fix will bring me closer to my eventual goal of being able to project baseball, basketball, and hockey if I can figure out how to project overtime and shootouts.

The first week of the season is not terrible indicative of the outcome of the season, because of so much uncertainty remaining. For example, last year Tampa sat at 1.7% after a week 1 loss. But, by virtue of a 32-6 win, and a weaker division that New Orleans, who won 38-3, Philadelphia takes the NFC lead. Philadelphia is the only 1-0 team in the NFC East, while there are 3 1-0 teams in the NFC South. In the AFC, Houston is the only 1-0 team in the AFC South, which gives them a huge boost in playoff odds currently. Miami is in the same position, but only won by a point, putting their strength very near .500

All in all, don't place any wagers based on week 1. In fact, don't ever do that based on this amateur stuff.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PHI	1-0	0.529	47.3	63.3	38.7	20.2	10.5	5.5
NO	1-0	0.529	35.0	61.4	38.1	19.9	10.4	5.5
HOU	1-0	0.520	49.9	64.2	38.9	20.2	10.4	5.3
LAR	1-0	0.526	26.9	58.2	35.8	18.5	9.6	5.0
DEN	1-0	0.524	28.4	57.1	35.1	18.3	9.6	4.9
ARI	1-0	0.527	26.7	56.6	34.7	18.0	9.4	4.9
PIT	1-0	0.515	35.9	58.3	35.2	18.0	9.2	4.7
SEA	1-0	0.520	24.4	54.1	32.6	16.7	8.5	4.4
MIA	1-0	0.503	42.6	58.6	34.0	17.0	8.4	4.2
LV	1-0	0.509	24.2	53.5	31.8	16.1	8.1	4.1
CAR	1-0	0.513	28.6	53.3	31.4	15.8	8.0	4.0
CIN	1-0	0.505	33.0	53.8	31.5	15.8	7.9	3.9
LAC	1-0	0.510	23.6	51.4	30.4	15.4	7.8	3.9
KC	1-0	0.506	23.8	52.9	31.2	15.7	7.9	3.9
SF	1-0	0.509	22.0	52.0	30.6	15.3	7.6	3.9
TB	1-0	0.503	26.7	52.5	30.4	15.0	7.4	3.7
MIN	0-1	0.495	28.3	37.8	20.0	9.7	4.7	2.3
NE	0-1	0.497	19.1	34.4	18.6	9.1	4.5	2.2
DET	0-1	0.491	26.9	35.3	18.3	8.7	4.2	2.0
DAL	0-1	0.497	19.1	32.0	16.9	8.3	4.0	2.0
CLE	0-1	0.494	15.7	31.0	16.7	8.2	4.0	1.9
NYJ	0-1	0.487	19.0	32.9	17.5	8.4	4.1	1.9
WAS	0-1	0.490	18.3	32.1	16.9	8.1	3.9	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.491	15.4	30.9	16.5	8.0	3.9	1.9
BUF	0-1	0.485	19.3	31.7	16.5	7.9	3.8	1.8
IND	0-1	0.480	18.2	31.4	16.3	7.8	3.7	1.7
JAC	0-1	0.480	15.5	29.1	15.0	7.1	3.4	1.6
CHI	0-1	0.474	22.9	30.8	15.3	7.1	3.3	1.5
TEN	0-1	0.473	16.3	28.8	14.7	6.9	3.2	1.5
NYG	0-1	0.476	15.3	27.6	14.1	6.6	3.1	1.4
GB	0-1	0.471	21.9	29.2	14.3	6.6	3.0	1.4
ATL	0-1	0.471	9.7	24.0	12.1	5.6	2.6	1.2