2017-09-05

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS once again stayed steady at 128 teams this year, but again I still have to modify my filter slightly, to account for ESPN's stylistic differences in listing the teams. This year, Massachusetts is now UMass, and Louisiana Lafayette is just Louisiana. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Houston and UT San Antonio still to add, since they were canceled due to Hurricane Harvey.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly.

1South Florida2-0
2Hawai'i2-0
3Colorado1-0
4Arkansas1-0
5LSU1-0
6Colorado State1-1
7Stanford1-0
7Ohio State1-0
7Oklahoma State1-0
7UCF1-0
7Wake Forest1-0
7Cincinnati1-0
7Minnesota1-0
7Toledo1-0
7Central Michigan1-0
7Connecticut1-0
7Utah1-0
7Idaho1-0
7Memphis1-0
7Arizona State1-0
7Washington1-0
7Wisconsin1-0
7Army1-0
7Eastern Michigan1-0
7Syracuse1-0
7Navy1-0
7Boston College1-0
7Alabama1-0
7USC1-0
7Clemson1-0
7Penn State1-0
7Oklahoma1-0
7Michigan1-0
7Auburn1-0
7Georgia1-0
7Louisville1-0
7Miami1-0
7Kansas State1-0
7Maryland1-0
7Washington State1-0
7Illinois1-0
7Iowa1-0
7Michigan State1-0
7Missouri1-0
7California1-0
7Pittsburgh1-0
7Air Force1-0
7South Carolina1-0
7Notre Dame1-0
7Northwestern1-0
7Virginia1-0
7Boise State1-0
7Texas Tech1-0
7Kentucky1-0
7Mississippi State1-0
7Duke1-0
7Old Dominion1-0
7Marshall1-0
7North Texas1-0
7Western Kentucky1-0
7Louisiana Tech1-0
7SMU1-0
7Kansas1-0
7Ohio1-0
7Louisiana1-0
7Texas State1-0
7Ole Miss1-0
7New Mexico1-0
7Nebraska1-0
7TCU1-0
7Iowa State1-0
7Vanderbilt1-0
7Tulane1-0
7Oregon1-0
7San Diego State1-0
7Fresno State1-0
7Arizona1-0
7Virginia Tech1-0
7UCLA1-0
7Tennessee1-0
81San Jose State1-1
82BYU1-1
83Oregon State1-1
84Rice0-1
84Indiana0-1
84Tulsa0-1
84Florida Intl0-1
84Buffalo0-1
84Georgia State0-1
84Louisiana Monroe0-1
84New Mexico State0-1
84Rutgers0-1
84Utah State0-1
84Charlotte0-1
84Florida Atlantic0-1
84Northern Illinois0-1
84Florida State0-1
84Western Michigan0-1
84Kent State0-1
84Akron0-1
84UTEP0-1
84Florida0-1
84Georgia Southern0-1
84Appalachian State0-1
84Purdue0-1
84Texas0-1
84Ball State0-1
84Wyoming0-1
84Bowling Green0-1
84North Carolina0-1
84NC State0-1
84Temple0-1
84Nevada0-1
84Troy0-1
84Southern Mississippi0-1
84East Carolina0-1
84Miami (OH)0-1
84Baylor0-1
84South Alabama0-1
84Arkansas State0-1
84Middle Tennessee0-1
84UNLV0-1
84West Virginia0-1
84Texas A&M0-1
84Georgia Tech0-1
126UMass0-2

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