Superbowl LII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Kansas City over Atlanta

Green Bay beat Chicago easily on Thursday night, but couldn't quite take over the NFC lead from Atlanta. Given the 35 points they scored, if they had held Chicago to a safety or less they would now be in the NFC lead, based on the results of the simulations at their new, higher strength. But, they allowed 14 points, including a garbage-time TD.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.558	52.13	76.15	59.33	31.83	16.95	9.05
JAC	2-1	0.563	47.05	67.57	49.90	26.97	14.46	7.80
ATL	3-0	0.536	52.06	72.28	55.50	28.72	14.75	7.44
LAR	2-1	0.545	61.61	67.18	46.03	24.10	12.59	6.46
GB	3-1	0.541	40.08	60.87	43.26	22.54	11.72	5.96
BUF	2-1	0.539	48.31	62.27	43.94	22.47	11.39	5.87
PIT	2-1	0.533	52.23	61.82	41.40	20.84	10.43	5.31
DET	2-1	0.539	31.30	52.76	36.44	18.87	9.77	4.95
TEN	2-1	0.529	39.97	56.78	38.75	19.41	9.66	4.88
OAK	2-1	0.533	22.20	50.87	33.84	17.04	8.59	4.38
DEN	2-1	0.533	24.75	50.50	33.48	16.83	8.48	4.31
PHI	2-1	0.517	37.56	53.55	36.05	17.80	8.75	4.24
WAS	2-1	0.523	32.72	50.24	33.84	16.90	8.41	4.13
MIN	2-1	0.520	26.65	48.12	32.18	16.02	7.98	3.90
CAR	2-1	0.516	21.60	41.94	27.26	13.43	6.61	3.20
DAL	2-1	0.504	28.09	43.72	28.23	13.56	6.50	3.07
NE	2-1	0.506	30.58	43.96	27.57	13.08	6.17	2.97
BAL	2-1	0.492	39.84	50.05	29.84	13.71	6.27	2.94
TB	1-1	0.511	17.18	32.62	20.50	9.98	4.86	2.32
SEA	1-2	0.472	18.62	24.06	13.03	5.83	2.61	1.15
NO	1-2	0.491	9.17	19.55	11.35	5.30	2.48	1.14
MIA	1-1	0.467	12.96	21.90	12.24	5.33	2.32	1.03
ARI	1-2	0.460	15.08	18.73	9.56	4.16	1.82	0.78
HOU	1-2	0.457	6.77	14.02	7.42	3.17	1.35	0.59
NYJ	1-2	0.458	8.16	14.25	7.39	3.16	1.35	0.58
IND	1-2	0.439	6.21	13.20	6.89	2.82	1.15	0.48
CLE	0-3	0.460	4.29	7.06	3.45	1.47	0.63	0.28
SF	0-3	0.450	4.69	6.66	3.18	1.35	0.58	0.24
CIN	0-3	0.434	3.64	5.53	2.58	1.03	0.42	0.17
LAC	0-3	0.457	0.92	4.07	1.99	0.85	0.36	0.16
CHI	1-3	0.418	1.96	4.59	2.12	0.84	0.33	0.13
NYG	0-3	0.431	1.63	3.13	1.46	0.59	0.24	0.10

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta
[Week 3, Final] Kansas City over Atlanta

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Final

Kansas City over Atlanta

Dallas beat Arizona by a reasonable score, so, as expected, nothing changed at the top. I couldn't quite put my finger on why that one game made Atlanta fall just behind Jacksonville in title chances, but the answer is the fairly obvious one. Jacksonville still has to play Arizona, so their expected wins just went up a bit. Also, Atlanta will play Dallas, so their average record went down a little. Cascade those chances out and they affect playoff seeding (or lack thereof), and give Jacksonville the bump they needed to pass Atlanta.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.558	52.13	76.11	59.27	31.78	16.93	9.11
JAC	2-1	0.563	47.04	67.54	49.83	26.94	14.44	7.85
ATL	3-0	0.536	51.77	72.93	56.43	29.47	15.30	7.71
LAR	2-1	0.545	61.65	67.55	46.98	24.85	13.11	6.73
BUF	2-1	0.539	48.29	62.23	43.90	22.45	11.39	5.91
PIT	2-1	0.533	52.73	62.37	41.88	21.09	10.55	5.41
DET	2-1	0.539	36.62	54.79	38.59	20.16	10.50	5.32
TEN	2-1	0.529	39.97	56.75	38.71	19.39	9.66	4.92
OAK	2-1	0.533	22.21	50.83	33.81	17.01	8.58	4.40
PHI	2-1	0.517	36.91	53.57	36.41	18.16	9.02	4.37
DEN	2-1	0.533	24.74	50.47	33.44	16.81	8.47	4.34
WAS	2-1	0.523	32.76	51.01	34.78	17.54	8.82	4.33
MIN	2-1	0.520	31.25	50.04	34.16	17.16	8.61	4.20
CAR	2-1	0.516	21.56	42.83	28.08	13.96	6.94	3.36
DAL	2-1	0.504	28.70	45.26	29.68	14.40	6.97	3.29
NE	2-1	0.506	30.58	43.94	27.54	13.06	6.17	2.99
BAL	2-1	0.492	39.54	49.95	29.80	13.69	6.27	2.96
GB	2-1	0.500	24.31	40.26	25.73	12.36	5.93	2.77
TB	1-1	0.511	17.53	34.22	21.76	10.68	5.25	2.51
SEA	1-2	0.472	18.65	24.45	13.48	6.10	2.76	1.22
NO	1-2	0.491	9.15	20.24	11.85	5.58	2.64	1.21
MIA	1-1	0.467	12.96	21.89	12.23	5.32	2.31	1.04
ARI	1-2	0.460	15.11	19.07	9.90	4.36	1.92	0.82
HOU	1-2	0.457	6.77	14.01	7.41	3.16	1.35	0.59
NYJ	1-2	0.458	8.16	14.25	7.39	3.15	1.35	0.59
CHI	1-2	0.452	7.82	13.82	7.37	3.18	1.37	0.58
IND	1-2	0.439	6.22	13.20	6.88	2.82	1.15	0.48
CLE	0-3	0.460	4.24	7.04	3.44	1.47	0.63	0.28
SF	0-3	0.450	4.58	6.69	3.25	1.40	0.60	0.25
CIN	0-3	0.434	3.49	5.35	2.48	1.00	0.40	0.17
LAC	0-3	0.457	0.92	4.06	1.98	0.85	0.36	0.16
NYG	0-3	0.431	1.63	3.27	1.55	0.64	0.26	0.11

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] Kansas City over Atlanta

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Kansas City over Atlanta

Baltimore lost by a huge margin, and I was starting to think they'd get shut out. Carolina didn't do much better, so we've got 2 new teams projected for the Superbowl. Kansas City won a division game to rocket up the charts, and Atlanta defeated the only other undefeated NFC team to take their position. By virtue of the way I calculate strength, Cincinnati pulled a little ahead of the now-league-worst Giants, despite both teams losing 27-24. Nothing much should change after tonight, with a matchup of two teams hovering around .480 and in the lower half of the league.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.558	52.31	76.40	59.57	31.94	17.01	9.16
ATL	3-0	0.536	52.18	73.58	57.07	29.86	15.54	7.84
JAC	2-1	0.563	47.01	67.29	49.60	26.81	14.38	7.83
LAR	2-1	0.545	56.17	64.45	45.21	23.98	12.67	6.50
BUF	2-1	0.539	48.30	62.23	43.90	22.44	11.38	5.92
PIT	2-1	0.533	52.74	62.38	41.90	21.10	10.56	5.42
DET	2-1	0.539	36.56	55.30	39.04	20.45	10.67	5.41
TEN	2-1	0.529	39.91	56.48	38.46	19.27	9.60	4.89
PHI	2-1	0.517	41.71	56.18	38.16	19.06	9.48	4.60
WAS	2-1	0.523	36.99	53.47	36.45	18.42	9.27	4.55
OAK	2-1	0.533	22.28	51.21	34.08	17.14	8.65	4.44
DEN	2-1	0.533	24.48	50.35	33.34	16.76	8.44	4.34
MIN	2-1	0.520	31.14	50.32	34.39	17.32	8.70	4.25
CAR	2-1	0.516	21.47	43.12	28.30	14.10	7.02	3.40
NE	2-1	0.506	30.58	43.92	27.53	13.06	6.16	3.00
BAL	2-1	0.492	39.53	49.95	29.81	13.70	6.27	2.97
GB	2-1	0.500	24.51	40.86	26.16	12.58	6.05	2.83
TB	1-1	0.511	17.25	34.25	21.77	10.71	5.27	2.52
ARI	1-1	0.481	23.40	31.12	18.21	8.42	3.89	1.75
DAL	1-1	0.480	19.26	30.43	18.35	8.45	3.89	1.75
NO	1-2	0.491	9.10	20.45	11.99	5.66	2.68	1.23
SEA	1-2	0.472	16.47	22.83	12.74	5.78	2.62	1.15
MIA	1-1	0.467	12.96	21.90	12.23	5.32	2.31	1.04
NYJ	1-2	0.458	8.16	14.24	7.39	3.15	1.34	0.59
CHI	1-2	0.452	7.79	13.89	7.44	3.22	1.40	0.59
HOU	1-2	0.457	6.77	13.87	7.33	3.13	1.34	0.59
IND	1-2	0.439	6.31	13.24	6.91	2.83	1.16	0.48
CLE	0-3	0.460	4.24	7.05	3.45	1.47	0.63	0.28
SF	0-3	0.450	3.96	6.14	3.02	1.30	0.56	0.23
CIN	0-3	0.434	3.49	5.35	2.49	1.00	0.40	0.17
LAC	0-3	0.457	0.93	4.15	2.03	0.86	0.37	0.16
NYG	0-3	0.431	2.04	3.62	1.71	0.70	0.29	0.12

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] Carolina over Baltimore

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

I had to wait for a Sunday morning game, but Week 4 is complete. Connecticut hosting East Carolina got rescheduled to this weekend due to some hurricane reshuffling, and put on Sunday because Connecticut's field was being used by MLS on Saturday. But you didn't come here to read about the #98 and #103 teams.

Georgia won again and retained their #1 spot. We're down to 24 undefeated teams, from 37 last week. At the bottom of the charts, UMass hung on to #130 with another loss, but UTEP, Charlotte, Bowling Green, and Nevada are hot on their heels.

Missouri reportedly still has a football team, and I'm really hoping they'll show up in Kentucky after the bye week, because whoever that was out there this week gave up 51 points to Auburn.

1	Georgia	4-0
2	USC	4-0
3	Michigan	4-0
4	Clemson	4-0
5	San Diego State	4-0
6	South Florida	4-0
7	Wake Forest	4-0
8	Virginia Tech	4-0
9	TCU	4-0
10	Alabama	4-0
11	Washington	4-0
12	Penn State	4-0
13	Oklahoma	4-0
14	Duke	4-0
15	Washington State	4-0
16	Utah	4-0
17	Texas Tech	3-0
18	California	3-1
19	Iowa	3-1
20	Mississippi State	3-1
21	Notre Dame	3-1
22	Navy	3-0
23	South Carolina	3-1
24	Ohio State	3-1
25	Kentucky	3-1
26	Memphis	3-0
27	Louisville	3-1
28	Colorado	3-1
29	Oregon	3-1
30	Virginia	3-1
31	SMU	3-1
32	Minnesota	3-0
33	Vanderbilt	3-1
34	Wisconsin	3-0
35	NC State	3-1
36	LSU	3-1
37	Texas A&M	3-1
38	Ohio	3-1
39	Toledo	3-1
40	Oklahoma State	3-1
41	Auburn	3-1
42	Florida	2-1
43	Troy	3-1
44	West Virginia	3-1
45	Tennessee	3-1
46	UT San Antonio	3-0
47	Arizona State	2-2
48	UCF	2-0
49	Tulane	2-2
50	Boise State	2-2
51	Cincinnati	2-2
52	Illinois	2-1
53	UCLA	2-2
54	Purdue	2-2
55	Miami	2-0
56	Ole Miss	2-1
57	Indiana	2-1
58	Stanford	2-2
59	Marshall	2-1
60	Georgia Tech	2-1
61	Louisiana Tech	2-2
62	Houston	2-1
63	Maryland	2-1
64	Michigan State	2-1
65	Wyoming	2-2
66	Utah State	2-2
67	Florida Intl	2-1
68	Iowa State	2-1
69	Northern Illinois	2-1
70	Kansas State	2-1
71	Miami (OH)	2-2
72	North Texas	2-2
73	Middle Tennessee	2-2
74	Temple	2-2
75	Army	2-2
76	Western Michigan	2-2
77	Colorado State	2-2
78	Southern Mississippi	2-1
78	Appalachian State	2-2
80	Old Dominion	2-2
81	Hawai'i	2-2
82	Western Kentucky	2-2
83	Nebraska	2-2
84	Northwestern	2-1
85	Eastern Michigan	2-1
86	Syracuse	2-2
87	New Mexico State	2-2
88	Buffalo	2-2
89	Arizona	2-2
90	Ball State	2-2
91	Idaho	2-2
92	New Mexico	2-2
93	Central Michigan	2-2
94	Boston College	1-3
95	UAB	2-2
96	North Carolina	1-3
97	Arkansas	1-2
98	East Carolina	1-3
99	Kent State	1-3
100	Air Force	1-2
101	Fresno State	1-2
102	Pittsburgh	1-3
103	Connecticut	1-2
104	Texas	1-2
105	Arkansas State	1-2
106	UNLV	1-2
107	Akron	1-3
108	Georgia State	1-2
109	BYU	1-3
110	Louisiana Monroe	1-2
111	Missouri	1-3
112	Oregon State	1-3
113	Florida Atlantic	1-3
114	Texas State	1-3
115	Tulsa	1-3
116	Coastal Carolina	1-2
117	South Alabama	1-3
118	Rutgers	1-3
119	Rice	1-3
120	Kansas	1-3
121	San Jose State	1-4
122	Florida State	0-2
123	Louisiana	1-3
124	Baylor	0-4
125	Georgia Southern	0-3
126	Nevada	0-4
127	Bowling Green	0-4
128	Charlotte	0-4
129	UTEP	0-4
130	UMass	0-5

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA
Week 3 Georgia

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Carolina over Baltimore

The Rams made a push for it, but couldn't quite take over the top spot in the NFC. If they hadn't allowed San Francisco to score 39 points they would have had a chance.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	2-0	0.562	41.64	69.37	52.69	28.91	15.83	8.43
BAL	2-0	0.561	51.70	72.14	55.05	29.86	16.09	8.65
OAK	2-0	0.547	31.93	60.93	44.10	23.14	12.08	6.33
LAR	2-1	0.545	52.70	63.84	45.69	24.15	12.62	6.51
DET	2-0	0.543	55.34	69.74	53.09	28.11	14.67	7.55
PIT	2-0	0.542	42.81	64.74	47.09	24.43	12.62	6.55
DEN	2-0	0.542	34.96	61.67	44.65	23.15	11.93	6.18
KC	2-0	0.532	29.52	56.73	39.91	20.22	10.20	5.19
TB	1-0	0.530	24.47	51.32	35.13	17.88	9.15	4.59
ATL	2-0	0.530	30.87	60.68	42.67	21.73	11.11	5.56
TEN	1-1	0.520	42.97	50.05	31.58	15.49	7.59	3.77
BUF	1-1	0.512	32.73	42.27	26.49	12.79	6.16	3.01
PHI	1-1	0.512	38.43	47.74	30.66	15.00	7.30	3.52
MIA	1-0	0.505	34.94	44.58	28.34	13.51	6.40	3.09
JAC	1-1	0.502	31.45	40.91	24.81	11.70	5.51	2.64
NE	1-1	0.501	25.88	33.54	19.93	9.41	4.43	2.12
GB	1-1	0.493	20.38	33.61	20.73	9.80	4.60	2.14
LAC	0-2	0.489	3.59	11.40	6.35	2.93	1.35	0.63
WAS	1-1	0.488	27.29	37.58	22.85	10.61	4.90	2.25
MIN	1-1	0.485	18.19	31.08	18.85	8.75	4.04	1.84
ARI	1-1	0.482	21.34	31.11	18.58	8.54	3.90	1.77
SEA	1-1	0.481	22.49	32.63	19.57	9.00	4.11	1.86
DAL	1-1	0.480	27.08	35.69	21.23	9.69	4.41	1.99
CLE	0-2	0.463	3.06	9.41	4.93	2.14	0.93	0.41
NO	0-2	0.461	3.02	9.39	5.03	2.21	0.98	0.42
HOU	1-1	0.454	16.69	23.46	12.69	5.38	2.28	0.98
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.44	9.31	4.60	1.93	0.82	0.35
SF	0-3	0.451	3.48	6.25	3.13	1.34	0.57	0.24
CHI	0-2	0.449	6.10	9.96	5.17	2.22	0.95	0.40
IND	0-2	0.443	8.89	12.42	6.25	2.58	1.07	0.45
NYG	0-2	0.441	7.20	9.99	4.93	2.05	0.86	0.35
CIN	0-2	0.440	2.43	6.43	3.22	1.34	0.55	0.23

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Carolina over Baltimore

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Final

Carolina over Baltimore

The projection at the top stayed the same, although Detroit is now the second most likely team to win the NFC. And despite the pitiful loss, the Giants are not quite the worst team in the league, still hovering a bit above Cincinnati.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	2-0	0.562	41.67	69.63	53.11	29.21	16.04	8.55
BAL	2-0	0.561	51.74	72.13	55.05	29.87	16.09	8.67
OAK	2-0	0.547	31.94	60.87	44.05	23.12	12.07	6.34
LAR	1-1	0.544	44.72	55.17	38.54	20.33	10.63	5.48
DET	2-0	0.543	55.24	69.78	53.45	28.39	14.84	7.63
PIT	2-0	0.542	42.76	64.67	47.01	24.38	12.60	6.54
DEN	2-0	0.541	34.95	61.62	44.59	23.11	11.91	6.18
KC	2-0	0.531	29.51	56.66	39.85	20.18	10.18	5.19
TB	1-0	0.530	24.47	51.51	35.42	18.07	9.27	4.65
ATL	2-0	0.529	30.83	60.83	42.95	21.91	11.23	5.62
TEN	1-1	0.520	42.90	50.04	31.60	15.50	7.59	3.78
BUF	1-1	0.512	32.69	42.23	26.47	12.79	6.15	3.01
PHI	1-1	0.511	38.37	47.87	31.00	15.22	7.42	3.58
MIA	1-0	0.505	34.95	44.59	28.35	13.52	6.41	3.10
JAC	1-1	0.502	31.45	40.96	24.86	11.73	5.53	2.65
NE	1-1	0.501	25.89	33.55	19.94	9.42	4.44	2.13
GB	1-1	0.493	20.39	33.75	21.00	9.97	4.69	2.18
LAC	0-2	0.489	3.60	11.42	6.36	2.93	1.36	0.63
WAS	1-1	0.489	27.28	37.78	23.16	10.80	5.00	2.30
MIN	1-1	0.485	18.22	31.20	19.08	8.89	4.12	1.88
ARI	1-1	0.482	23.64	32.53	19.51	9.00	4.12	1.87
SEA	1-1	0.481	24.72	33.93	20.42	9.42	4.31	1.95
DAL	1-1	0.481	27.13	35.92	21.57	9.89	4.50	2.04
CLE	0-2	0.463	3.07	9.44	4.95	2.15	0.94	0.41
NO	0-2	0.461	3.03	9.48	5.11	2.25	1.00	0.43
HOU	1-1	0.454	16.74	23.57	12.76	5.41	2.30	0.99
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.46	9.34	4.62	1.94	0.82	0.35
CHI	0-2	0.450	6.16	10.14	5.32	2.30	0.98	0.41
IND	0-2	0.443	8.91	12.48	6.29	2.60	1.08	0.45
SF	0-2	0.443	6.91	10.40	5.35	2.26	0.95	0.39
NYG	0-2	0.441	7.21	10.08	5.01	2.10	0.88	0.36
CIN	0-2	0.440	2.44	6.44	3.23	1.34	0.56	0.23

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Sunday] Carolina over Baltimore

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Carolina over Baltimore

Both conference leaders fell from their perches, and now we've got a brand new matchup projected, Carolina over Baltimore. Still, if I get that right this early in the season, I'll be pretty surprised.

I watched a video today of Dan Dierdorf delivering the news to St. Louis that the Cardinals would be leaving for Arizona. I didn't previously know that he became a sports anchor on one of our local stations right after his career for a few years before Monday Night Football signed him. Anyway, that video led me to video of a similar report in Baltimore when the Colts left town a few years prior. Then I noticed in week 2 it was Cardinals vs Colts. Also in the first 2 weeks was Rams vs Colts and Ravens vs Browns. Then I figured when the Rams were still in St. Louis, the NFL should have scheduled them against the Ravens at the same time the Colts played the Cardinals, just to catch any potentially confused time travelers. But, then I realized due to the way the schedule works, the Rams and Cardinals, both NFC West teams, could play either the AFC South with Indianapolis or the AFC North with Baltimore, but not both in a given year. It was a slow day at work.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	2-0	0.562	41.79	70.29	54.10	29.97	16.66	8.87
BAL	2-0	0.561	51.73	72.44	55.34	30.03	16.18	8.79
PIT	2-0	0.542	42.77	65.02	47.32	24.54	12.68	6.64
OAK	2-0	0.547	31.94	60.55	43.80	22.99	12.00	6.35
DEN	2-0	0.541	34.95	61.30	44.34	22.98	11.84	6.20
ATL	2-0	0.529	30.94	61.51	43.90	22.56	11.71	5.86
LAR	1-1	0.544	44.74	55.17	39.17	20.92	11.02	5.68
KC	2-0	0.532	29.51	56.33	39.61	20.06	10.12	5.20
TB	1-0	0.530	24.22	51.79	35.94	18.48	9.60	4.81
DET	1-0	0.517	43.16	55.29	38.98	19.66	9.78	4.78
TEN	1-1	0.520	42.91	50.08	31.61	15.51	7.60	3.82
PHI	1-1	0.511	35.74	45.93	30.35	15.08	7.42	3.58
MIA	1-0	0.505	34.95	44.62	28.37	13.53	6.42	3.13
BUF	1-1	0.512	32.70	42.27	26.49	12.80	6.16	3.04
JAC	1-1	0.502	31.44	40.98	24.86	11.73	5.53	2.68
GB	1-1	0.493	25.59	36.69	23.16	11.09	5.25	2.44
WAS	1-1	0.489	25.36	36.21	22.73	10.73	5.01	2.31
NE	1-1	0.501	25.89	33.58	19.96	9.42	4.43	2.15
MIN	1-1	0.485	23.06	33.98	21.08	9.92	4.62	2.11
DAL	1-1	0.480	25.59	34.92	21.46	9.97	4.58	2.07
SEA	1-1	0.481	24.72	33.97	20.81	9.72	4.49	2.03
ARI	1-1	0.482	23.62	32.50	19.86	9.28	4.30	1.95
NYG	0-1	0.469	13.31	19.83	11.49	5.20	2.34	1.03
HOU	1-1	0.454	16.74	23.59	12.77	5.42	2.30	1.00
LAC	0-2	0.489	3.60	11.27	6.28	2.90	1.34	0.63
CHI	0-2	0.450	8.19	11.72	6.17	2.68	1.16	0.49
NO	0-2	0.461	3.05	9.77	5.33	2.37	1.06	0.46
IND	0-2	0.443	8.91	12.50	6.30	2.60	1.08	0.46
CLE	0-2	0.463	3.06	9.59	5.03	2.19	0.95	0.42
SF	0-2	0.443	6.91	10.42	5.48	2.35	1.00	0.41
NYJ	0-2	0.451	6.45	9.34	4.63	1.95	0.82	0.36
CIN	0-2	0.440	2.44	6.56	3.29	1.36	0.57	0.24

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams
[Week 2, Thursday] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

Week 3 is complete and so are my rankings. Last week's #1, UCLA, lost to Memphis to fall all the way down to #28. Now at the top are Georgia, California, and Clemson. Georgia has the best possible strength of schedule, beating 3 teams that are all 2-1, but this week was an FCS opponent.

At the bottom of the table, the rankings remained remarkably stable this week, with #128-#130 going to Nevada, UTEP, and UMass once again. UMass may need someone to lose during their bye week to catch up to their 0-4 record.

As for my usual Missouri blurb, they lost 35-3. At least they were only outscored 7-0 in the second half, but that was probably as much to do with Purdue protecting a 25-point lead as it was any defensive adjustments. I'm no football expert, but I think they're going to need to score at least a touchdown to win most games.

1	Georgia	3-0
2	California	3-0
3	Clemson	3-0
4	South Florida	3-0
5	Michigan	3-0
6	Iowa	3-0
7	Oregon	3-0
8	Colorado	3-0
9	Kentucky	3-0
10	San Diego State	3-0
11	Mississippi State	3-0
12	Wake Forest	3-0
13	Washington	3-0
14	Oklahoma State	3-0
15	Oklahoma	3-0
16	TCU	3-0
17	USC	3-0
18	Virginia Tech	3-0
19	Vanderbilt	3-0
20	Alabama	3-0
21	Washington State	3-0
22	Wisconsin	3-0
23	Minnesota	3-0
24	Duke	3-0
25	Toledo	3-0
26	Penn State	3-0
27	Utah	3-0
28	UCLA	2-1
29	Louisville	2-1
T-30	Notre Dame	2-1
T-30	Ohio State	2-1
32	Maryland	2-0
33	South Carolina	2-1
34	Purdue	2-1
35	Illinois	2-1
36	Memphis	2-0
37	Ohio	2-1
38	Ole Miss	2-1
39	Navy	2-0
40	Texas A&M	2-1
41	Houston	2-0
42	Texas Tech	2-0
43	Boise State	2-1
44	Virginia	2-1
45	Iowa State	2-1
46	NC State	2-1
47	SMU	2-1
48	Cincinnati	2-1
49	Kansas State	2-1
50	Marshall	2-1
51	Louisiana Tech	2-1
52	Hawai'i	2-1
53	Appalachian State	2-1
54	Ball State	2-1
55	Michigan State	2-0
56	Army	2-1
57	Colorado State	2-2
58	Auburn	2-1
59	Eastern Michigan	2-0
60	Temple	2-1
61	Northern Illinois	2-1
62	LSU	2-1
63	Central Michigan	2-1
64	UT San Antonio	2-0
65	Southern Mississippi	2-1
66	Syracuse	2-1
67	Old Dominion	2-1
68	West Virginia	2-1
69	UAB	2-1
70	Northwestern	2-1
71	Troy	2-1
72	Tennessee	2-1
73	Arizona	2-1
74	Indiana	1-1
75	Connecticut	1-1
76	Florida	1-1
77	Middle Tennessee	1-2
78	North Carolina	1-2
79	Boston College	1-2
80	Pittsburgh	1-2
81	Utah State	1-2
82	Tulane	1-2
83	UCF	1-0
84	Arkansas	1-1
85	Stanford	1-2
86	Miami	1-0
87	Tulsa	1-2
88	Texas	1-2
89	Kent State	1-2
90	Wyoming	1-2
91	Arizona State	1-2
92	Air Force	1-1
93	Nebraska	1-2
94	Akron	1-2
95	Florida Atlantic	1-2
96	North Texas	1-2
97	Missouri	1-2
98	Texas State	1-2
99	Western Michigan	1-2
100	Buffalo	1-2
101	Georgia Tech	1-1
102	Fresno State	1-2
103	South Alabama	1-2
104	Miami (OH)	1-2
105	Florida Intl	1-1
106	Western Kentucky	1-2
107	Arkansas State	1-1
108	Rutgers	1-2
109	Coastal Carolina	1-1
110	Oregon State	1-3
111	BYU	1-3
112	Kansas	1-2
113	UNLV	1-1
114	Rice	1-2
115	San Jose State	1-3
116	New Mexico State	1-2
117	New Mexico	1-2
118	Louisiana	1-2
119	Idaho	1-2
120	Florida State	0-1
121	Georgia State	0-2
122	Louisiana Monroe	0-2
123	East Carolina	0-3
124	Baylor	0-3
125	Georgia Southern	0-2
126	Charlotte	0-3
127	Bowling Green	0-3
128	Nevada	0-3
129	UTEP	0-3
130	UMass	0-4

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida
Week 2 UCLA

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

Last night two teams from the bottom of my table faced off, and predictably few points were scored. Houston won 13-9, and Cincinnati is now just 0.36% likely to win the Superbowl. Of course, it's still very early, and I don't trust these numbers very much with two 0-0 teams still in the mix.

Since both teams were near the bottom, the projection at the top stayed the same. I'm not a big gambler, but I bet would get pretty good odds betting on Jacksonville to win and LA to make the Superbowl.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	1-0	0.530	52.62	63.68	46.45	24.38	12.74	6.58
BAL	1-0	0.531	44.48	59.43	42.93	22.61	11.86	6.14
LAR	1-0	0.531	49.92	59.58	42.49	22.06	11.41	5.95
DAL	1-0	0.531	41.50	56.32	39.99	20.81	10.80	5.64
BUF	1-0	0.521	45.39	57.78	40.74	20.95	10.74	5.44
CAR	1-0	0.531	36.46	53.70	38.27	19.92	10.34	5.40
PHI	1-0	0.521	38.08	53.03	36.78	18.73	9.52	4.87
KC	1-0	0.518	30.68	50.61	35.36	18.06	9.21	4.63
OAK	1-0	0.519	29.64	49.96	34.86	17.86	9.14	4.61
GB	1-0	0.523	30.29	49.42	34.38	17.57	8.96	4.60
PIT	1-0	0.507	36.40	52.07	35.54	17.73	8.84	4.36
DET	1-0	0.517	29.34	48.36	33.31	16.80	8.46	4.29
MIN	1-0	0.517	29.17	47.52	32.60	16.45	8.29	4.21
ATL	1-0	0.513	30.72	47.39	32.30	16.16	8.07	4.06
DEN	1-0	0.506	29.12	48.23	32.86	16.37	8.14	4.00
MIA	0-0	0.500	26.05	37.93	24.59	12.09	5.92	2.88
TB	0-0	0.500	21.01	34.60	22.30	10.84	5.27	2.59
CLE	0-1	0.493	14.64	26.34	16.11	7.80	3.78	1.81
TEN	0-1	0.481	17.84	26.40	15.81	7.45	3.51	1.64
LAC	0-1	0.494	10.56	22.88	14.00	6.80	3.30	1.59
ARI	0-1	0.483	18.06	25.27	14.88	6.97	3.26	1.55
NE	0-1	0.482	15.99	24.55	14.59	6.90	3.26	1.53
IND	0-1	0.469	15.17	24.42	14.44	6.63	3.04	1.39
SEA	0-1	0.477	16.74	23.59	13.73	6.35	2.93	1.37
CHI	0-1	0.487	11.20	21.17	12.66	5.99	2.84	1.36
NYJ	0-1	0.479	12.58	21.73	12.78	6.01	2.82	1.31
NO	0-1	0.483	11.81	20.58	12.17	5.71	2.68	1.27
HOU	1-1	0.455	14.38	25.28	14.45	6.41	2.85	1.26
WAS	0-1	0.479	10.93	20.11	11.74	5.46	2.54	1.19
SF	0-1	0.469	15.28	21.58	12.24	5.56	2.52	1.16
NYG	0-1	0.469	9.48	17.81	10.15	4.62	2.10	0.97
CIN	0-2	0.440	4.49	8.70	4.52	1.95	0.85	0.36

[Week 1] Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

Another Autographed Ball

Inspired by this post from the lost collector, I decided to send a letter to Commissioner Rob Manfred to ask for an autographed ball. I wrote a real letter, and gave him some feedback on some of the changes he's been implementing, hoping that maybe I'd get some sort of reply. I complimented his efforts to grow the fanbase of the game, but told him I thought the automatic intentional walk was a bad idea, citing Tony Pena, who has twice faked an intentional walk on a full count and tricked the batter into a strikeout. But, when my padded envelope came in the mail, there was no reply, except for this baseball with a nice clear signature.

Robert D. Manfred, Jr.

Superbowl LII Projection, Week 1

Jacksonville over Los Angeles Rams

If you've followed along in the past, you may have noticed I usually post projections after every day of games, except in week 1, where I wait for everyone to play a game. Well, Hurricane Irma moved a week 1 game to week 11, so Miami and Tampa have no points scored or against, which is very unfortunate in my projection formula. I've done the sanest thing I could think to do, which is just assume they both have a strength of .500 until they play.

Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Superbowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

If my week 1 projection comes true, I'll eat my hat. But, Jacksonville and LA both scored a ton of points and didn't allow many, and are the only 1-0 teams in their divisions, so they're in the position of strength for their respective conferences. But, everyone's no more than 2 games of the pace, so anything can still happen.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
JAC	1-0	0.530	53.54	63.76	46.28	24.28	12.68	6.54
BAL	1-0	0.531	42.69	58.07	41.98	22.09	11.58	5.99
LAR	1-0	0.531	49.96	59.56	42.46	22.03	11.39	5.94
DAL	1-0	0.531	41.50	56.42	40.09	20.87	10.82	5.65
CAR	1-0	0.531	36.45	53.82	38.38	19.98	10.37	5.41
BUF	1-0	0.521	45.16	57.43	40.50	20.81	10.66	5.40
PHI	1-0	0.521	38.12	53.18	36.91	18.80	9.55	4.89
OAK	1-0	0.519	29.85	50.03	34.99	17.92	9.16	4.63
KC	1-0	0.518	30.62	50.32	35.19	17.97	9.15	4.61
GB	1-0	0.523	30.30	49.25	34.24	17.50	8.93	4.58
DET	1-0	0.517	29.33	48.18	33.15	16.73	8.43	4.28
MIN	1-0	0.517	29.19	47.37	32.48	16.40	8.27	4.20
PIT	1-0	0.507	34.15	49.97	34.08	16.99	8.46	4.17
ATL	1-0	0.513	30.76	47.55	32.44	16.23	8.11	4.08
DEN	1-0	0.506	28.90	47.80	32.58	16.21	8.06	3.96
MIA	0-0	0.500	26.22	38.01	24.68	12.12	5.94	2.89
TB	0-0	0.500	21.01	34.71	22.39	10.88	5.29	2.59
CLE	0-1	0.493	13.57	24.90	15.23	7.37	3.57	1.71
TEN	0-1	0.481	18.03	26.01	15.49	7.29	3.43	1.60
LAC	0-1	0.494	10.63	22.85	14.01	6.80	3.30	1.58
ARI	0-1	0.483	18.04	25.20	14.83	6.94	3.25	1.54
NE	0-1	0.482	15.93	24.31	14.44	6.82	3.22	1.51
SEA	0-1	0.477	16.73	23.54	13.68	6.33	2.93	1.37
IND	0-1	0.469	15.36	24.01	14.13	6.49	2.98	1.36
CHI	0-1	0.487	11.18	21.00	12.55	5.94	2.81	1.34
NYJ	0-1	0.479	12.68	21.72	12.79	6.00	2.82	1.31
NO	0-1	0.483	11.78	20.64	12.22	5.73	2.69	1.28
HOU	0-1	0.470	13.07	22.08	12.78	5.87	2.70	1.23
WAS	0-1	0.479	10.90	20.15	11.76	5.47	2.55	1.20
SF	0-1	0.469	15.28	21.55	12.22	5.54	2.51	1.15
CIN	0-1	0.469	9.59	18.74	10.85	4.98	2.29	1.04
NYG	0-1	0.469	9.48	17.88	10.20	4.64	2.11	0.97

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I guess I made a slight error last week when I said there were still the same 128 FBS teams this year. I actually saw a commercial that promised something about "All 130 FBS teams", which prompted me to give it a second look. UAB has been completely reinstated. I knew they were back, but for some reason I thought they'd have to ramp back up to FBS. Coastal Carolina is in transition, but counts as an FBS opponent this year, even though they won't be bowl eligible. Whether or not I count them as FBS and display their rankings doesn't affect anyone else in my system; it's purely aesthetic. I'll add them to the chart, because I still displayed Ohio State when they were postseason ineligible, albeit under much different circumstances. So, now that Houston and UT San Antonio have played a game each, and UAB and Coastal Carolina have been added, the bottom team will be #130.

This is the second week in a row I've watched Mizzou play at someone else's house. I don't generally set my schedule around their game, and just watch it if it's on and I'm not busy. They showed some promise to start, but then Deebo Samuel of South Carolina started to look like Bo Jackson, and the game never really got competitive.

There's still a logjam of 2-0 teams, but UCLA comes out on top this week, with South Florida falling all the way to #25 without playing a game. 4 more FBS games were canceled this week, and all included currently ranked teams, which may result in some oddness later on since college games don't usually get rescheduled, especially if some of those teams with missing games are otherwise undefeated.

1	UCLA	2-0
2	Penn State	2-0
3	Colorado	2-0
4	San Diego State	2-0
5	Clemson	2-0
6	Georgia	2-0
7	Illinois	2-0
8	Iowa	2-0
9	South Carolina	2-0
10	Oregon	2-0
11	Maryland	2-0
12	Duke	2-0
13	Virginia Tech	2-0
14	Louisville	2-0
15	Wake Forest	2-0
16	Kansas State	2-0
17	Wisconsin	2-0
18	Navy	2-0
19	USC	2-0
20	Washington State	2-0
21	Oklahoma State	2-0
22	TCU	2-0
23	Oklahoma	2-0
24	Utah	2-0
25	South Florida	2-0
26	California	2-0
27	SMU	2-0
28	Hawai'i	2-1
29	Vanderbilt	2-0
30	Tennessee	2-0
31	Mississippi State	2-0
32	Kentucky	2-0
33	Michigan	2-0
34	Alabama	2-0
35	Washington	2-0
36	Ole Miss	2-0
37	Army	2-0
38	Toledo	2-0
39	Minnesota	2-0
40	Central Michigan	2-0
41	Old Dominion	2-0
42	Michigan State	2-0
43	Eastern Michigan	2-0
44	LSU	2-0
45	Colorado State	2-1
46	Kent State	1-1
47	Connecticut	1-0
48	Akron	1-1
49	Pittsburgh	1-1
50	Texas A&M	1-1
51	Ohio State	1-1
52	UCF	1-0
53	Arizona State	1-1
54	Notre Dame	1-1
55	NC State	1-1
56	Boston College	1-1
57	Purdue	1-1
58	Houston	1-0
59	Ball State	1-1
60	Miami	1-0
61	Texas State	1-1
62	Stanford	1-1
63	Utah State	1-1
64	Iowa State	1-1
65	Tulane	1-1
66	Boise State	1-1
67	Texas	1-1
68	Tulsa	1-1
69	Georgia Tech	1-1
70	Arkansas	1-1
71	North Texas	1-1
72	Indiana	1-1
73	Middle Tennessee	1-1
74	Memphis	1-0
75	Appalachian State	1-1
T-76	UT San Antonio	1-0
T-76	Auburn	1-1
78	Nebraska	1-1
79	Western Kentucky	1-1
80	Air Force	1-0
81	Texas Tech	1-0
82	West Virginia	1-1
83	Wyoming	1-1
84	Northwestern	1-1
85	Coastal Carolina	1-0
86	UNLV	1-1
87	Florida Intl	1-1
88	New Mexico State	1-1
89	Temple	1-1
90	Northern Illinois	1-1
91	Southern Mississippi	1-1
92	Marshall	1-1
93	Ohio	1-1
94	Missouri	1-1
95	Virginia	1-1
96	Louisiana Tech	1-1
97	Cincinnati	1-1
98	Fresno State	1-1
99	Idaho	1-1
100	Kansas	1-1
101	UAB	1-1
102	Rice	1-1
103	Arizona	1-1
104	BYU	1-2
105	Troy	1-1
106	Oregon State	1-2
107	Louisiana	1-1
108	Syracuse	1-1
109	New Mexico	1-1
110	San Jose State	1-2
111	Miami (OH)	1-1
112	Florida Atlantic	0-2
113	Florida	0-1
T-114	Florida State	0-1
T-114	North Carolina	0-2
116	Georgia State	0-1
117	South Alabama	0-2
118	Charlotte	0-2
119	Western Michigan	0-2
120	Bowling Green	0-2
121	Buffalo	0-2
122	Rutgers	0-2
123	Louisiana Monroe	0-1
124	Arkansas State	0-1
125	Georgia Southern	0-2
126	East Carolina	0-2
127	Baylor	0-2
128	Nevada	0-2
129	UTEP	0-2
130	UMass	0-3

2017 History and #1s
Week 1 South Florida

August Card Show Autographs

From my post history, it appears I didn't go to a card show from March until August. I made up for lost time, though, and got 3 autographs last month.

T.J. Mathews
Tom Lawless #12
Luis Alicea

T.J. Mathews was there along with his dad, Nelson Mathews, but I opted not to get his autograph, since he was never a Cardinal. T.J. was traded away in the deal that brought Mark McGwire to St. Louis in 1997, and was signed as a free agent again for 2001. He was released, played for Houston, then re-signed with St. Louis in August 2002, but never made an appearance.

Tom Lawless took his time signing his ball, and it shows in his perfectly legible signature. I always appreciate the extra touches like his #12.

Finally, there's a ball that appears to have some sort of cuneiform scrawled on it, but I promise that was written by Luis Alicea.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football has officially finished week 1, so it's time to start ranking the teams again. In case you're new here, here's an explanation I mostly just copy from year to year, with some slight editing.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system).  I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams don't play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The FBS once again stayed steady at 128 teams this year, but again I still have to modify my filter slightly, to account for ESPN's stylistic differences in listing the teams. This year, Massachusetts is now UMass, and Louisiana Lafayette is just Louisiana. In the past, they've waffled between "Mississippi" and "Ole Miss", and changed Hawaii to Hawai'i. I try to keep up with any adjustments, but if you notice your FBS team missing, leave me a comment and they'll be there next week. I think I'm good, because I have 126 teams represented, and Houston and UT San Antonio still to add, since they were canceled due to Hurricane Harvey.

Now onto the Week 1 rankings, which are still mostly silly.

1	South Florida	2-0
2	Hawai'i	2-0
3	Colorado	1-0
4	Arkansas	1-0
5	LSU	1-0
6	Colorado State	1-1
7	Stanford	1-0
7	Ohio State	1-0
7	Oklahoma State	1-0
7	UCF	1-0
7	Wake Forest	1-0
7	Cincinnati	1-0
7	Minnesota	1-0
7	Toledo	1-0
7	Central Michigan	1-0
7	Connecticut	1-0
7	Utah	1-0
7	Idaho	1-0
7	Memphis	1-0
7	Arizona State	1-0
7	Washington	1-0
7	Wisconsin	1-0
7	Army	1-0
7	Eastern Michigan	1-0
7	Syracuse	1-0
7	Navy	1-0
7	Boston College	1-0
7	Alabama	1-0
7	USC	1-0
7	Clemson	1-0
7	Penn State	1-0
7	Oklahoma	1-0
7	Michigan	1-0
7	Auburn	1-0
7	Georgia	1-0
7	Louisville	1-0
7	Miami	1-0
7	Kansas State	1-0
7	Maryland	1-0
7	Washington State	1-0
7	Illinois	1-0
7	Iowa	1-0
7	Michigan State	1-0
7	Missouri	1-0
7	California	1-0
7	Pittsburgh	1-0
7	Air Force	1-0
7	South Carolina	1-0
7	Notre Dame	1-0
7	Northwestern	1-0
7	Virginia	1-0
7	Boise State	1-0
7	Texas Tech	1-0
7	Kentucky	1-0
7	Mississippi State	1-0
7	Duke	1-0
7	Old Dominion	1-0
7	Marshall	1-0
7	North Texas	1-0
7	Western Kentucky	1-0
7	Louisiana Tech	1-0
7	SMU	1-0
7	Kansas	1-0
7	Ohio	1-0
7	Louisiana	1-0
7	Texas State	1-0
7	Ole Miss	1-0
7	New Mexico	1-0
7	Nebraska	1-0
7	TCU	1-0
7	Iowa State	1-0
7	Vanderbilt	1-0
7	Tulane	1-0
7	Oregon	1-0
7	San Diego State	1-0
7	Fresno State	1-0
7	Arizona	1-0
7	Virginia Tech	1-0
7	UCLA	1-0
7	Tennessee	1-0
81	San Jose State	1-1
82	BYU	1-1
83	Oregon State	1-1
84	Rice	0-1
84	Indiana	0-1
84	Tulsa	0-1
84	Florida Intl	0-1
84	Buffalo	0-1
84	Georgia State	0-1
84	Louisiana Monroe	0-1
84	New Mexico State	0-1
84	Rutgers	0-1
84	Utah State	0-1
84	Charlotte	0-1
84	Florida Atlantic	0-1
84	Northern Illinois	0-1
84	Florida State	0-1
84	Western Michigan	0-1
84	Kent State	0-1
84	Akron	0-1
84	UTEP	0-1
84	Florida	0-1
84	Georgia Southern	0-1
84	Appalachian State	0-1
84	Purdue	0-1
84	Texas	0-1
84	Ball State	0-1
84	Wyoming	0-1
84	Bowling Green	0-1
84	North Carolina	0-1
84	NC State	0-1
84	Temple	0-1
84	Nevada	0-1
84	Troy	0-1
84	Southern Mississippi	0-1
84	East Carolina	0-1
84	Miami (OH)	0-1
84	Baylor	0-1
84	South Alabama	0-1
84	Arkansas State	0-1
84	Middle Tennessee	0-1
84	UNLV	0-1
84	West Virginia	0-1
84	Texas A&M	0-1
84	Georgia Tech	0-1
126	UMass	0-2