Tenets of Wilson: 2024-12

2024-12-31

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Final

Detroit over Kansas City

If you're not seeing this until the following Sunday, I assure you it's not because I forgot to post it. It doesn't matter too much, because despite involving the top team in the NFC, the Monday night game didn't really matter, and the winner of Detroit and Minnesota in Week 18 will get the bye, while the loser will be the #5 seed and most likely travel to Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or maybe LA.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	14-2	0.786	58.7	++	89.2	55.2	33.0	20.4
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.2	29.2	13.0
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	67.3	40.9	24.3	12.4
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.4	18.9	11.1
MIN	14-2	0.721	41.3	++	80.6	41.4	19.6	10.5
BAL	11-5	0.709	94.9	++	59.0	30.3	16.8	7.8
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	56.8	28.8	14.2	6.1
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.3	11.0	5.8
WSH	11-5	0.648	-	++	55.5	21.8	8.5	3.8
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	37.9	16.9	7.1	3.4
PIT	10-6	0.571	5.1	++	48.2	17.5	6.5	2.1
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	55.2	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.9
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	36.1	10.1	3.0	0.7
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.2	6.9	1.6	0.5
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.8	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	9.6	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	3.9	1.0	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-10	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.242	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Bye: Kansas City (Week 17, Wednesday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Wednesday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 17, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City

2024-12-30

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Sunday

Detroit over Kansas City

Seattle and Indianapolis both lost to eliminate themselves from the playoffs on Sunday, while Washington won to put themselves in, and I believe Washington beating Atlanta was the final straw to eliminate Seattle via a low Strength of Victory, and give the LA Rams the NFC West. All the NFC wildcards are spoken for, so the last spot in will be the NFC South winner, Tampa Bay or Atlanta, with second place eliminated. Detroit's game tonight almost doesn't matter, because if they can beat Minnesota next week, they'll have the tiebreaker. A win tonight would at least allow them to play for a tie next week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	57.8	++	88.7	54.2	32.0	19.5
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.2	29.2	13.1
BUF	13-3	0.747	++	++	67.3	40.9	24.3	12.5
PHI	13-3	0.764	++	++	57.3	35.5	19.1	11.3
MIN	14-2	0.721	42.2	++	80.9	41.7	19.9	10.7
BAL	11-5	0.709	94.9	++	59.0	30.3	16.8	7.8
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	56.8	28.8	14.2	6.1
GB	11-5	0.717	-	++	47.4	21.5	11.2	5.9
WSH	11-5	0.647	-	++	55.5	22.0	8.6	3.9
TB	9-7	0.675	81.6	81.6	38.0	17.0	7.2	3.5
PIT	10-6	0.571	5.1	++	48.2	17.6	6.5	2.1
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	55.2	21.3	9.6	4.8	1.9
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	36.1	10.1	3.0	0.8
LAR	10-6	0.472	++	++	28.3	7.0	1.7	0.5
MIA	8-8	0.485	-	35.2	8.5	2.5	0.9	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	9.6	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
ATL	8-8	0.446	18.4	18.4	4.0	1.1	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-9	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-11	0.395	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.346	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	4-12	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	4-12	0.288	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-13	0.255	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.243	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	3-13	0.239	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-13	0.211	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-29

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Saturday

Detroit over Kansas City

The NFL keeps finding itself in situations that look fixed. For example, after the LA Chargers won to clinch a playoff spot at noon, Denver could have finished out the AFC with a win at 3, but instead they lost, and to a team that now holds a tiebreaker over them, keeping the AFC interesting today and next week. Indianapolis and Miami have 4 total games against teams that have been eliminated for awhile now, while Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh next week, who may or may not still be fighting for their division, depending on gametimes, but have also lost 3 in a row.

In the NFC, the LA Rams won their game and could clinch the division today based on strength of victory. If Tampa Bay wins today, Atlanta vs Washington tonight will be a battle to stay alive in the playoff race. If Tampa Bay loses, Philadelphia wins to eliminate them from the division, and Green Bay wins, Washington may sit back and relax, content with their playoff berth instead of fighting for a chance to reach the #6 seed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.2	58.8	36.2	22.6
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.1	30.4	13.9
MIN	13-2	0.717	24.9	++	76.8	39.7	19.4	10.6
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	63.5	35.8	19.7	9.5
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.5	31.1	15.8	8.6
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.9	++	59.3	32.5	18.0	8.6
PHI	12-3	0.712	99.1	++	56.7	32.9	15.2	8.2
LAC	10-6	0.680	-	++	57.0	29.5	15.0	6.7
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	47.0	17.5	7.3	3.3
DEN	9-7	0.649	-	62.0	26.6	12.0	6.0	2.4
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.1	++	47.8	17.9	6.9	2.3
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	21.9	9.2	3.5	1.5
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	35.9	10.5	3.2	0.8
LAR	10-6	0.472	99.9	99.9	27.2	7.6	1.9	0.6
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
CIN	8-8	0.558	-	8.5	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
IND	7-8	0.421	-	17.9	4.1	1.0	0.3	0.1
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	11.6	2.9	0.8	0.2	0.1
SEA	9-7	0.504	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	7-9	0.496	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-13	0.243	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-27

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Thursday

Detroit over Kansas City

Seattle was fighting for the playoff lives on Thursday, as I believe they needed a win to stay alive in the NFC West race. They pulled off a stunning 6-3 victory featuring no second half points. I'm sure Bezos is thrilled. Saturday's games are all on NFL Network, which means I get no bonus football day this week. LA and Denver could lock up the last AFC playoff spots, and in the NFC, LA can almost clinch, needing but would need some help from other teams later. If Seattle were to beat LA next Sunday, the first 4 tiebreakers would not be able to break the tie, and it would come down to strength of victory. While they had the same record in their 14 common games, they beat different teams, and LA has a significant lead in SOV so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.0	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	22.8
KC	15-1	0.692	++	++	++	59.8	31.3	14.3
MIN	13-2	0.718	25.0	++	77.1	39.8	19.4	10.7
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	60.1	34.2	19.3	9.2
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.8	++	61.6	34.7	19.3	9.2
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.1	30.9	15.7	8.7
PHI	12-3	0.712	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.2
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	85.8	39.2	18.6	9.7	4.1
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	46.8	21.0	9.2	3.5
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.3
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.2	++	49.6	19.0	7.4	2.5
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.5	9.4	3.5	1.6
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	38.5	11.5	3.5	0.9
LAR	9-6	0.465	70.7	70.7	18.5	5.1	1.2	0.4
SEA	9-7	0.504	29.3	29.3	8.5	2.6	0.7	0.2
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.2	0.8	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	8.2	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-12	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-26

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 17, Wednesday

Detroit over Kansas City

The league did a good job of projecting 4 relevant teams to play on Christmas day. Kansas City clinched the #1 seed with a win against Pittsburgh, who is in a division title battle with Baltimore, who played Houston, a team that has already won their division and was jockeying for playoff seeding. Houston will now be locked in as the #4 team, and will play the top wildcard, likely to be Pittsburgh but also possibly LA, Denver, or Baltimore.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	22.8
KC	15-1	0.693	++	++	++	59.8	31.3	14.3
MIN	13-2	0.718	24.9	++	77.1	39.8	19.5	10.7
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	60.1	34.2	19.3	9.2
BAL	11-5	0.709	93.8	++	61.6	34.7	19.3	9.2
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.2	30.9	15.7	8.7
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.2
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	85.8	39.2	18.6	9.7	4.1
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	46.8	21.0	9.2	3.5
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.3
PIT	10-6	0.571	6.2	++	49.6	19.0	7.4	2.5
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.6	9.5	3.5	1.6
HOU	9-7	0.482	++	++	38.5	11.5	3.5	0.9
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.1	71.1	18.7	5.1	1.2	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.9	28.9	8.2	2.5	0.7	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	3.1	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	8.2	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	5.1	1.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-24

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Final

Detroit over Kansas City

Green Bay grabbed their playoff spot decisively, winning 34-0 against New Orleans on Monday night. They can't win their division with Detroit and Minnesota each but not both possible to catch but not pass. In other words, Green Bay could finish 13-4, and so could one of Detroit or Minnesota, but not both.

One fun thing I noticed is that Atlanta, Seattle, and the LA Rams will only make the playoffs as division winners, because their chances are idential for winning the division and making the playoffs, while Tampa has a slightly higher playoff chance. So while we now have 5 teams in the mix for 3 playoff spots, Seattle and LA are really fighting for one, while Washington, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay are going for the other two.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	75.1	++	94.6	59.0	36.3	23.6
MIN	13-2	0.718	24.9	++	77.1	39.8	19.5	11.1
BUF	12-3	0.711	++	++	65.9	39.5	23.1	11.1
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	92.5	49.7	24.8	10.4
GB	11-4	0.719	-	++	64.2	30.9	15.7	9.0
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	56.7	32.8	15.1	8.6
BAL	10-5	0.663	56.5	++	57.3	29.1	15.0	6.4
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	87.3	41.5	20.7	11.1	4.7
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	48.3	22.5	10.1	3.8
PIT	10-5	0.608	43.5	++	50.0	22.2	9.9	3.6
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	96.7	46.3	17.2	7.2	3.5
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.6	15.0	5.7	1.7
TB	8-7	0.624	51.2	54.5	22.6	9.5	3.5	1.7
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.1	71.1	18.6	5.1	1.2	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	48.8	48.8	11.7	3.3	0.8	0.2
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.9	28.9	8.2	2.5	0.7	0.2
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	7.5	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	4.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-10	0.426	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 16, Sunday] Detroit over Kansas City

2024-12-23

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Detroit over Kansas City

No one clinched any new playoff spots on Sunday, but Arizona, New Orleans, Dallas, and San Francisco were all eliminated, clearing up the NFC a little bit. 3 teams are already in, leaving 6 to fight for 4 spots, and Green Bay could grab one or those with a win on Monday. Things got even weirder in the AFC, with Buffalo the most likely Super Bowl winner, but Kansas City still the most likely to make it to the Super Bowl. That's the power of that first round bye.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	13-2	0.780	72.8	++	94.1	60.7	38.0	24.7
MIN	13-2	0.718	27.2	++	78.3	42.2	20.9	12.0
BUF	12-3	0.712	++	++	65.9	39.5	23.1	11.2
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	92.5	49.7	24.8	10.5
PHI	12-3	0.713	99.1	++	58.3	34.4	16.2	9.1
BAL	10-5	0.663	56.5	++	57.3	29.1	15.0	6.5
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.4	54.1	22.1	10.0	5.1
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	87.3	41.5	20.7	11.1	4.8
WSH	10-5	0.638	0.9	97.1	50.4	19.1	8.2	3.9
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	97.7	48.4	22.5	10.1	3.9
PIT	10-5	0.608	43.5	++	50.0	22.2	9.9	3.7
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.6	15.0	5.7	1.8
TB	8-7	0.624	48.0	51.5	22.5	9.5	3.6	1.7
LAR	9-6	0.465	71.2	71.2	20.1	5.6	1.4	0.4
ATL	8-7	0.457	52.0	52.0	13.3	3.8	0.9	0.3
SEA	8-7	0.498	28.8	28.8	8.8	2.7	0.7	0.3
CIN	7-8	0.548	-	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
IND	7-8	0.421	-	7.5	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	7-8	0.450	-	4.8	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
ARI	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-9	0.494	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	6-9	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-11	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-11	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	7-8	0.359	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-12	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-12	0.284	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	3-12	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-11	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Saturday] Detroit over Kansas City

2024-12-22

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

Detroit over Kansas City

Kansas City's win in the early game took the wind out of Pittsburgh's sails, eliminating them from getting the #1 seed. It's now down to Buffalo or Kansas City in the AFC. Pittsburgh went on to lose, allowing Baltimore to clinch a playoff berth, and the lead in division-winning chances. Also, after many weeks of Detroit and Buffalo, we finally have a change in the projection. It's interesting because head to head, Buffalo would project to beat Kansas City, and both are already in the playoffs. But, the fact that Kansas City is in the bye position means they have a much greater chance of making it to the second weekend of the playoffs right now, and that increased chance cascades all the way through to the end.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.7
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
MIN	12-2	0.713	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	14-1	0.656	++	++	93.9	50.0	25.2	11.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	62.8	37.2	21.3	10.5
BAL	10-5	0.663	53.7	++	57.4	29.5	15.2	6.8
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	92.8	44.6	22.4	12.0	5.4
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	98.8	48.7	22.8	10.3	4.1
PIT	10-5	0.607	46.3	++	49.9	22.3	10.0	3.9
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.4
TB	8-6	0.627	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-6	0.539	++	++	40.5	15.1	5.7	1.9
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.0	43.3	13.1	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.3	41.5	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	3.4	1.1	0.4	0.2	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	2.8	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 16, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo