Tenets of Wilson: 2024-12

2024-12-06

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit clinched their playoff spot with a win on Thursday, but can't quite grab a division spot because of Minnesota right behind them. We should see a few more teams in and a few more out on Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	92.7	++	95.8	64.0	42.0	26.7
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.6	49.9	30.1	15.6
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	61.5	37.0	17.1	9.2
MIN	10-2	0.651	7.3	99.7	65.7	31.1	13.9	6.9
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.1	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.8
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.1	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.4	32.5	14.3	5.8
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	4.9
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	95.9	53.7	22.4	10.1	4.8
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	88.1	45.7	18.6	8.6	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.7
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.5	25.6	10.1	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.5	47.7	17.6	6.2	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.0	39.1	14.3	5.0	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.2	13.9	3.9	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.5	16.2	4.7	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.453	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

2024-12-03

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Denver beat Cleveland on Monday night, which fully eliminated Jacksonville. That's because it will take a minimum of 8 wins to make the AFC playoffs now, and Jacksonville has 10 losses already.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.2	100.0	91.1	60.1	38.7	24.4
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.7	50.0	30.1	15.8
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	66.4	39.0	18.6	10.0
MIN	10-2	0.651	12.3	99.7	66.1	31.4	14.3	7.1
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.0	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.9
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.0	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.3	32.5	14.3	5.9
GB	9-3	0.640	2.5	97.3	57.0	25.1	11.5	5.6
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	5.0
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	87.8	43.9	18.3	8.5	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.8
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.3	25.0	9.8	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.3	46.9	17.0	5.9	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.1	39.1	14.1	4.9	1.6	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.1	13.6	3.8	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.6	16.2	4.6	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.454	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-02

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Buffalo has now officially joined the playoff party as a division winner, while New England eliminated themselves with a loss. Since Buffalo clinched, Miami and the New York Jets are also eliminated from winning a division. I also show Cincinnati unable to win their division, but I haven't quite run through all the scenarios. It does look like their best case is a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, though.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.21	100.00	91.13	60.07	38.73	24.42
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	83.10	50.54	30.51	15.98
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.47	99.99	66.35	39.04	18.62	10.00
MIN	10-2	0.650	12.32	99.67	66.06	31.40	14.26	7.14
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.44	97.27	55.64	28.89	14.93	6.95
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.85	99.54	57.19	29.21	14.23	6.32
KC	11-1	0.606	90.85	++	67.94	33.02	14.53	5.97
GB	9-3	0.640	2.46	97.33	56.99	25.09	11.45	5.61
DEN	7-5	0.634	0.71	80.69	40.97	19.40	9.64	4.23
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.53	87.81	43.87	18.27	8.50	4.09
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.14	94.50	46.30	20.91	9.46	3.86
HOU	8-5	0.538	96.95	97.67	39.65	15.40	5.88	2.04
TB	6-6	0.565	54.30	61.26	24.99	9.80	3.58	1.48
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.30	46.86	17.03	5.92	1.87	0.68
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.07	39.11	14.07	4.91	1.56	0.57
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.72	47.09	13.56	3.83	0.98	0.29
IND	6-7	0.438	2.97	21.85	6.69	1.92	0.60	0.16
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.60	16.22	4.60	1.28	0.32	0.09
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	7.24	2.12	0.59	0.18	0.05
SF	5-7	0.454	2.03	2.61	0.77	0.22	0.06	0.02
NO	4-8	0.491	0.96	1.30	0.42	0.13	0.04	0.01
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	1.00	0.35	0.11	0.04	0.01
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.00	0.68	0.14	0.02	0.01	0.00
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	3-8	0.340	0.00	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-