Houston lost to the New York Jets, which didn't change the projection, but did highlight some somewhat odd situations. In the AFC East, Buffalo's playoff and division winning chances were barely touched by the second place Jets win, because they still have a 3.5 game lead on them. For Houston, at 6-3 and leading the AFC South, I'd expect them to be higher up the chart, but their point differential is down to a +1 for the year, which means on average my model expects them to be about a .500 team the rest of the way. On another note, I forgot to start listing the first time certain playoff thresholds were reached, so I'll go back and edit those into the last two posts. I think I'll start at 99% playoff odds, because 80% and 90% just aren't that interesting.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 6-1 | 0.640 | 53.2 | 91.2 | 68.3 | 39.5 | 22.6 | 12.2 |
| BUF | 6-2 | 0.639 | 98.0 | 98.8 | 65.9 | 37.0 | 20.3 | 11.2 |
| PIT | 6-2 | 0.638 | 78.3 | 95.9 | 64.3 | 36.0 | 19.7 | 10.9 |
| WSH | 6-2 | 0.612 | 59.9 | 92.0 | 64.2 | 35.0 | 18.6 | 9.4 |
| KC | 7-0 | 0.597 | 72.6 | 99.0 | 72.9 | 37.5 | 18.4 | 9.4 |
| DEN | 5-3 | 0.617 | 15.5 | 83.3 | 47.3 | 24.7 | 12.9 | 6.8 |
| LAC | 4-3 | 0.604 | 11.9 | 79.6 | 43.5 | 21.9 | 11.1 | 5.7 |
| MIN | 5-2 | 0.591 | 18.7 | 72.6 | 44.2 | 22.4 | 11.3 | 5.5 |
| PHI | 5-2 | 0.576 | 38.5 | 79.5 | 47.7 | 23.7 | 11.6 | 5.5 |
| GB | 6-2 | 0.581 | 19.4 | 71.0 | 41.9 | 20.8 | 10.3 | 4.9 |
| CHI | 4-3 | 0.590 | 8.7 | 43.7 | 25.0 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 |
| BAL | 5-3 | 0.551 | 19.4 | 65.8 | 31.0 | 13.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 |
| HOU | 6-3 | 0.502 | 85.0 | 91.9 | 41.7 | 16.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 |
| TB | 4-4 | 0.534 | 33.3 | 53.6 | 25.8 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 |
| ATL | 5-3 | 0.498 | 64.2 | 71.6 | 31.9 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 |
| SF | 4-4 | 0.550 | 32.5 | 38.0 | 18.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| IND | 4-4 | 0.506 | 13.2 | 46.2 | 19.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| SEA | 4-4 | 0.491 | 24.6 | 28.8 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| ARI | 4-4 | 0.451 | 29.1 | 31.6 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| CIN | 3-5 | 0.486 | 2.2 | 13.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| LAR | 3-4 | 0.443 | 13.9 | 15.9 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| NYJ | 3-6 | 0.473 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| NO | 2-6 | 0.463 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| DAL | 3-4 | 0.419 | 1.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| JAX | 2-6 | 0.412 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| MIA | 2-5 | 0.373 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| CLE | 2-6 | 0.402 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| LV | 2-6 | 0.380 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TEN | 1-6 | 0.371 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NE | 2-6 | 0.359 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 2-6 | 0.373 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CAR | 1-7 | 0.306 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
