Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Friday

Detroit over Buffalo

Kansas City is having a magical season, at least in terms of falling into victories in games they easily could lose. They even got the first playoff clinch, while simultaneously eliminating Las Vegas. another testament to their outlier status is that I'm pretty sure the first clincher hasn't ever done so from my 5th place position before.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	87.5	100.0	93.1	62.4	40.8	26.5
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	75.7	43.1	24.4	11.8
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.2	99.9	65.9	38.8	18.0	9.8
MIN	9-2	0.648	9.8	98.4	64.8	30.8	14.1	7.3
KC	11-1	0.606	93.1	++	73.8	36.4	16.9	7.0
LAC	7-4	0.647	6.2	95.7	53.2	27.8	14.5	6.6
PIT	8-3	0.637	66.6	98.0	56.1	29.1	14.8	6.6
GB	9-3	0.640	2.7	97.3	59.4	26.5	12.2	6.2
DEN	7-5	0.634	0.7	82.8	42.8	21.5	10.9	4.8
BAL	8-4	0.609	33.3	97.6	50.1	23.9	11.4	4.7
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.8	77.5	36.4	13.9	6.0	2.8
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.7	95.5	38.7	15.3	6.0	2.1
TB	5-6	0.559	37.5	49.5	20.3	7.8	2.9	1.2
ARI	6-5	0.516	51.1	53.8	20.0	7.2	2.3	0.9
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.4	37.8	13.7	4.7	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.6	61.6	18.8	5.6	1.5	0.5
IND	5-7	0.435	4.2	16.8	5.2	1.6	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.7	7.4	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	3.8	6.3	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.5	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	0.0	7.7	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.8	9.4	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-8	0.341	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.279	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit beat Chicago to become the first team to reach a 99.999% chance at the playoffs, and the New York Giants eliminated themselves, saving me from having to run a bunch more simulations to figure out the crazy edge case that would keep them alive. Chicago also eliminated themselves from winning the NFC North with the loss. Teams should start clinching and dropping out left and right now, but at least one spot will surely come down to the last gameday of the season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	87.5	100.0	93.1	62.4	40.8	26.5
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	77.7	44.2	25.1	12.2
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.2	99.9	65.9	38.8	18.0	9.8
MIN	9-2	0.648	9.8	98.4	64.8	30.8	14.1	7.3
PIT	8-3	0.637	66.7	98.0	56.7	29.5	15.0	6.7
LAC	7-4	0.647	9.4	95.6	53.3	27.9	14.6	6.7
KC	10-1	0.600	88.7	100.0	70.3	34.1	15.7	6.4
GB	9-3	0.640	2.7	97.3	59.4	26.5	12.2	6.2
DEN	7-5	0.634	1.9	82.9	43.0	21.6	11.0	4.9
BAL	8-4	0.609	33.2	97.6	50.3	24.1	11.5	4.8
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.8	77.6	36.5	13.9	6.0	2.8
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.8	95.5	38.9	15.4	6.1	2.1
TB	5-6	0.559	37.5	49.4	20.3	7.8	2.9	1.2
ARI	6-5	0.516	51.1	53.8	20.0	7.2	2.3	0.9
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.4	37.8	13.7	4.7	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.5	61.5	18.7	5.5	1.5	0.5
IND	5-7	0.435	4.2	16.7	5.3	1.6	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.7	7.4	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	3.8	6.3	2.2	0.7	0.2	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.4	1.7	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	0.0	7.7	2.3	0.7	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.8	9.4	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1
TEN	3-8	0.340	0.8	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.278	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-9	0.320	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 12, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

My numbers expected Baltimore to lose on Monday, but they won by a touchdown, flipping things around a bit for the second-tier AFC teams. I also razzed my Pittsburgh fan friend about this, but he said he kind of wants to go see them in the playoffs in nearby Kansas City, so now I've got to work up the odds of individual matchups one of these days.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	10-1	0.748	82.2	100.0	90.4	59.9	38.4	24.3
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	78.1	44.6	25.3	12.6
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.0	99.9	68.5	40.5	19.6	10.7
MIN	9-2	0.648	14.8	98.5	65.9	32.3	15.2	7.9
PIT	8-3	0.637	66.8	97.6	56.7	29.5	15.1	6.9
LAC	7-4	0.647	9.4	94.7	52.9	27.7	14.5	6.8
KC	10-1	0.600	88.7	100.0	70.3	34.3	15.7	6.6
GB	8-3	0.618	3.1	93.0	53.2	22.9	10.3	5.0
BAL	8-4	0.609	33.1	96.6	49.9	23.9	11.4	4.9
DEN	7-5	0.634	1.9	79.1	41.2	20.6	10.5	4.8
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.9	78.9	38.6	15.4	6.8	3.1
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.6	95.3	38.9	15.5	6.1	2.2
TB	5-6	0.559	38.0	50.7	21.3	8.3	3.2	1.4
ARI	6-5	0.516	50.9	54.1	20.5	7.4	2.5	1.0
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.8	39.1	14.5	5.0	1.7	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.0	61.3	19.1	5.7	1.6	0.5
MIA	5-6	0.455	0.0	15.0	5.0	1.6	0.6	0.2
IND	5-7	0.435	4.3	16.1	5.1	1.6	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.5	7.3	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	4.0	6.8	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.1	1.5	0.6	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.8	9.4	2.7	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	4-7	0.509	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-8	0.340	0.9	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	4-7	0.339	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.278	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-9	0.320	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.315	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Even though it doesn't always guarantee a playoff spot, 10 wins always seemed like the mark of a good season to me. I'm not sure if that should rise to 11 now that there are 17 games, but also there are 2 additional playoff teams. Detroit is now over 99.95% to make the playoffs, but still a little behind Buffalo, who has nearly clinched their division. Speaking of division races, we have our first eliminations. New England (9 losses vs Buffalo's 9 wins), Las Vegas, and the New York Giants. All 3 put the nails in their own coffins with a loss this week, although Kansas City and Philadelphia also won for good measure.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	10-1	0.748	82.2	100.0	90.3	59.9	38.4	24.2
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	78.0	44.5	25.1	12.5
PHI	9-2	0.672	96.1	99.9	68.6	40.5	19.6	10.6
LAC	7-3	0.663	17.8	97.7	59.8	32.6	17.6	8.5
MIN	9-2	0.648	14.8	98.5	65.9	32.3	15.2	7.8
PIT	8-3	0.637	74.9	97.7	56.6	29.3	14.9	6.8
KC	10-1	0.600	81.0	100.0	70.2	33.9	15.5	6.5
GB	8-3	0.618	3.1	93.1	53.3	22.9	10.3	5.0
DEN	7-5	0.634	1.2	79.2	41.0	20.4	10.4	4.7
BAL	7-4	0.598	24.8	88.7	42.8	19.9	9.2	3.9
WSH	7-5	0.596	3.9	79.0	38.6	15.5	6.8	3.1
HOU	7-5	0.532	94.7	95.4	38.3	15.1	6.0	2.1
TB	5-6	0.559	37.9	50.4	21.2	8.3	3.2	1.3
ARI	6-5	0.516	51.0	54.1	20.5	7.4	2.5	1.0
SEA	6-5	0.504	34.8	39.0	14.5	5.0	1.7	0.6
ATL	6-5	0.445	58.0	61.3	19.1	5.7	1.6	0.5
MIA	5-6	0.455	0.0	17.4	5.7	1.9	0.6	0.2
IND	5-7	0.435	4.2	17.9	5.6	1.7	0.5	0.1
SF	5-6	0.500	5.5	7.3	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1
NO	4-7	0.504	4.0	6.9	2.5	0.8	0.3	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.3	4.3	1.6	0.6	0.2	0.1
LAR	5-6	0.420	8.7	9.4	2.7	0.7	0.2	0.1
CHI	4-7	0.509	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-8	0.341	0.9	1.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	4-7	0.339	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-8	0.279	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-9	0.327	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-9	0.320	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-9	0.315	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Pittsburgh took an unexpected loss at Cleveland on Thursday night, and dropped back to third in the AFC projections, boosting Buffalo up above the 25% mark to win the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	9-1	0.718	79.5	99.8	88.4	56.5	35.2	21.1
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	78.1	45.0	25.4	13.4
PHI	8-2	0.647	81.3	99.3	67.0	37.7	18.5	9.6
LAC	7-3	0.662	21.2	97.8	59.1	32.5	17.7	9.1
MIN	8-2	0.645	17.6	96.7	64.6	33.0	16.6	8.5
PIT	8-3	0.637	75.5	98.0	57.3	29.8	15.3	7.4
KC	9-1	0.596	77.8	99.9	67.8	32.7	14.9	6.6
WSH	7-4	0.610	18.7	93.0	53.4	24.9	11.5	5.5
BAL	7-4	0.598	24.2	90.1	43.8	20.4	9.5	4.3
DEN	6-5	0.615	1.1	71.5	35.5	17.0	8.3	3.9
GB	7-3	0.569	2.9	79.2	39.3	15.7	6.8	3.0
HOU	7-4	0.543	96.5	97.8	42.9	17.5	7.1	2.8
ARI	6-4	0.534	65.9	69.0	28.7	11.7	4.4	1.8
TB	4-6	0.521	27.9	34.3	13.5	5.1	1.9	0.7
ATL	6-5	0.445	66.0	67.7	21.8	7.0	2.1	0.7
SF	5-5	0.552	11.1	20.0	8.6	3.4	1.4	0.6
IND	5-6	0.472	3.3	29.0	10.2	3.5	1.2	0.4
SEA	5-5	0.485	13.5	18.7	6.9	2.4	0.8	0.3
NO	4-7	0.504	5.6	7.8	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	5-5	0.450	9.4	11.8	3.9	1.3	0.4	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.3	5.4	2.0	0.7	0.3	0.1
MIA	4-6	0.415	0.0	9.3	2.8	0.8	0.2	0.1
CHI	4-6	0.516	0.0	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-8	0.332	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-8	0.341	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-8	0.360	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-7	0.328	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-8	0.336	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Houston beat Dallas as expected, and are leading the AFC South by 2 full games at 7-4, and are the only team with a positive point differential in the division. Even so, they aren't a particularly strong team, and while they are 98% likely to make the playoffs, they under 7% to make the Super Bowl, even below 6-5 Denver.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	9-1	0.718	79.5	99.8	88.4	56.5	35.2	21.0
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	74.8	42.9	24.1	12.7
PHI	8-2	0.647	81.2	99.3	66.9	37.7	18.5	9.5
PIT	8-2	0.645	88.3	99.4	65.3	34.9	18.1	9.0
LAC	7-3	0.662	21.2	97.8	58.4	31.8	17.3	8.9
MIN	8-2	0.645	17.6	96.7	64.6	33.0	16.6	8.5
KC	9-1	0.596	77.7	99.9	66.0	31.6	14.3	6.4
WSH	7-4	0.610	18.8	93.0	53.4	24.9	11.5	5.5
BAL	7-4	0.598	11.6	90.0	43.5	20.1	9.4	4.2
DEN	6-5	0.615	1.1	71.5	35.0	16.7	8.2	3.8
GB	7-3	0.569	2.9	79.2	39.3	15.7	6.8	2.9
HOU	7-4	0.543	96.5	97.8	42.3	17.1	6.9	2.7
ARI	6-4	0.534	65.9	69.0	28.7	11.7	4.4	1.8
TB	4-6	0.521	27.9	34.3	13.5	5.1	1.9	0.7
ATL	6-5	0.445	66.0	67.7	21.8	7.0	2.1	0.7
SF	5-5	0.552	11.1	20.0	8.6	3.4	1.4	0.6
IND	5-6	0.472	3.3	28.5	9.9	3.3	1.2	0.4
SEA	5-5	0.485	13.5	18.7	6.9	2.4	0.8	0.3
NO	4-7	0.504	5.6	7.8	2.9	1.0	0.4	0.1
LAR	5-5	0.450	9.4	11.8	3.9	1.3	0.4	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.8	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	4-6	0.415	0.0	9.2	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.1
CHI	4-6	0.516	0.0	2.2	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-8	0.332	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-8	0.360	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-7	0.328	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-8	0.335	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-8	0.336	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

I wasn't looking ahead very much last week and didn't realize Buffalo and Kansas City were playing this week. Those two have been jockeying for the top spot in my AFC projections for awhile now, and Buffalo came out on top. By virtue of their 9-1 record, Kansas City is still 32% likely to be the #1 seed, but Buffalo is up around 39%. In the NFC, Detroit decided to run up the score, which my projections reward handsomely, and I now have them over 1 in 3 to win the NFC, and 64% likely to be the #1 seed.

On the other end of things, I usually do a shorter run before the full 2 billion simulations, just to make sure thing seem to make sense, and I kept coming up with the NY Giants eliminated from the division. They are not yet eliminated, but we needed a lot more runs to stumble into a time they actually won the division. I keep less-rounded output from these runs, but I may also need to start outputting my raw numbers, because I don't know exactly how infrequent it happened, but it was less than 0.0000005%, which rounded to 0.00000000 in my output.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	9-1	0.718	79.5	99.8	88.6	56.6	35.3	21.1
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	74.9	43.2	24.3	12.8
PHI	8-2	0.647	81.6	99.3	66.7	37.6	18.4	9.5
LAC	7-3	0.662	20.8	97.9	60.6	33.1	18.0	9.2
PIT	8-2	0.645	88.0	99.5	65.8	35.4	18.4	9.1
MIN	8-2	0.645	17.5	96.7	64.7	33.1	16.6	8.5
KC	9-1	0.596	78.1	99.9	67.6	32.5	14.8	6.6
WSH	7-4	0.610	18.3	92.0	52.7	24.6	11.3	5.4
BAL	7-4	0.598	11.9	90.8	44.8	20.8	9.7	4.3
DEN	6-5	0.615	1.1	72.2	35.6	17.1	8.4	3.9
GB	7-3	0.569	2.9	79.2	39.5	15.8	6.8	3.0
ARI	6-4	0.534	65.9	69.0	28.8	11.7	4.4	1.8
HOU	6-4	0.496	91.2	93.4	35.3	12.7	4.6	1.6
TB	4-6	0.521	27.3	33.6	13.3	5.0	1.9	0.7
ATL	6-5	0.445	66.6	68.2	22.0	7.0	2.1	0.7
SF	5-5	0.552	11.1	20.2	8.7	3.5	1.4	0.6
IND	5-6	0.472	8.3	30.2	10.4	3.5	1.2	0.4
SEA	5-5	0.485	13.5	18.8	6.9	2.4	0.8	0.3
NO	4-7	0.504	5.7	8.0	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	5-5	0.450	9.4	11.9	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	4-6	0.415	0.0	10.0	2.9	0.8	0.3	0.1
CHI	4-6	0.516	0.0	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-8	0.332	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-8	0.360	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-8	0.335	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-8	0.336	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Philadelphia and Washington was a pretty evenly matched game between two good teams, and I thought the winner might take over the NFC. Philadelphia didn't quite get there after their win, but they're the 2nd most likely NFC Super Bowl representative now.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.3	99.1	81.1	48.0	27.5	15.1
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.7	39.1	21.6	11.7
PHI	8-2	0.647	82.0	99.2	70.7	40.4	21.5	11.3
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.6	42.7	20.8	10.2
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.8	58.3	31.8	17.5	9.4
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.5	98.4	61.9	32.8	17.2	8.9
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.5	93.1	58.9	30.1	15.3	7.7
WSH	7-4	0.610	17.9	90.8	52.6	25.9	12.7	6.2
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.4	49.6	23.4	11.2	5.3
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.8	33.3	14.4	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	61.5	67.9	29.1	12.1	5.0	2.1
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.1	94.7	36.3	13.3	5.0	1.9
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.3	83.9	33.5	13.0	4.9	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	53.8	22.8	9.6	4.1	1.7
SF	5-4	0.555	25.9	40.5	18.4	7.9	3.5	1.5
TB	4-6	0.521	16.2	27.8	11.4	4.5	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.4	28.0	9.8	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.2	6.8	2.6	1.0	0.4
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.7	3.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	7.0	10.9	4.1	1.4	0.5	0.2
LAR	4-5	0.438	5.6	7.7	2.6	0.8	0.3	0.1
NO	3-7	0.465	1.4	2.8	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	3-6	0.383	0.0	6.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.389	0.7	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Games like Miami vs the LA Rams are going to lead to flex scheduling for Mondays eventually. Miami is essentially eliminated from the playoffs already, and LA had a slight chance, but Miami managed to win the game 23-15 and now they're both likely done for the year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.3	99.1	81.7	48.2	27.8	15.3
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.7	39.1	21.6	11.8
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.5	42.7	20.8	10.3
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.8	58.3	31.8	17.5	9.5
PHI	7-2	0.633	58.0	96.6	63.5	34.5	17.8	9.1
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.6	98.4	62.0	32.9	17.2	9.0
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.5	93.0	59.2	30.4	15.5	7.8
WSH	7-3	0.620	42.0	94.9	59.6	31.0	15.5	7.7
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.5	49.6	23.5	11.2	5.4
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.4	33.3	14.5	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	61.5	68.0	29.0	12.2	5.0	2.1
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.1	94.7	36.2	13.3	5.0	1.9
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.1	83.7	33.2	13.0	5.0	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	53.8	22.8	9.6	4.1	1.7
SF	5-4	0.555	25.9	40.2	18.3	7.9	3.5	1.5
TB	4-6	0.521	16.3	27.2	11.2	4.4	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.4	27.9	9.7	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.1	6.7	2.6	1.0	0.4
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.7	3.3	1.3	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	7.0	10.9	4.0	1.5	0.5	0.2
LAR	4-5	0.438	5.6	7.9	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1
NO	3-7	0.465	1.4	2.6	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
MIA	3-6	0.383	0.0	6.8	1.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.1	1.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.389	0.7	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Kansas City stayed undefeated by winning their game against Denver, but so narrowly that Buffalo passed them and is now the AFC favorite again. They were really one play away from losing, but as Denver was lining up the clock for their last-second field goal, I texted a friend that surely they would shank it, because I refuse to believe Kansas City can be stopped. Sure enough, it was a good kick (I think) but not quite high enough to avoid being blocked.

Also, here's my annual reminder that showing 100.0% chance at the playoffs is rounded from 99.95%+, whereas an actual clinch will display a plus (+), similar to how 0.0 is rounded down from below 0.05%, and an elimination will show a minus (-).

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	8-1	0.669	74.2	99.0	81.8	48.3	27.9	15.4
BUF	8-2	0.659	99.9	100.0	68.4	38.9	21.5	11.7
KC	9-0	0.614	88.4	100.0	81.5	42.7	20.8	10.3
LAC	6-3	0.656	11.4	95.9	58.4	31.8	17.5	9.5
PHI	7-2	0.633	57.9	96.2	63.2	34.4	17.8	9.1
PIT	7-2	0.638	67.6	98.5	62.0	32.9	17.2	9.0
MIN	7-2	0.624	21.4	92.4	59.0	30.3	15.5	7.8
WSH	7-3	0.620	42.1	94.7	59.6	31.0	15.6	7.7
BAL	7-3	0.597	32.1	96.8	49.7	23.5	11.2	5.4
GB	6-3	0.566	4.0	67.1	33.3	14.4	6.5	2.9
ARI	6-4	0.534	58.5	65.5	28.1	11.8	4.9	2.0
ATL	6-4	0.504	82.2	83.6	33.2	13.0	5.0	1.9
HOU	6-4	0.496	92.2	94.9	36.3	13.3	5.0	1.9
DEN	5-5	0.547	0.3	55.2	23.4	9.8	4.2	1.8
SF	5-4	0.555	24.2	38.2	17.4	7.5	3.3	1.4
TB	4-6	0.521	16.3	26.7	11.0	4.4	1.8	0.7
IND	4-6	0.470	6.3	28.2	9.8	3.4	1.2	0.4
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.3	17.7	7.0	2.7	1.1	0.4
LAR	4-4	0.454	11.1	16.0	5.6	1.9	0.7	0.2
CHI	4-5	0.518	0.3	7.4	3.2	1.2	0.5	0.2
SEA	4-5	0.480	6.3	10.0	3.7	1.3	0.5	0.2
NO	3-7	0.465	1.3	2.5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-7	0.419	0.1	4.2	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.372	0.0	3.6	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-8	0.388	0.6	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
NE	3-7	0.370	0.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-7	0.352	0.9	1.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 10, Thursday

Detroit over Kansas City

On Thursday morning a friend of mine sent me a graphic with the AFC playoff chances for each team, and asked how mine stacked up. They had Baltimore way overrated (or I had them underrated), and were a bit more certain on the teams towards the 100% and 0% end. When they were losing to Cincinnati pretty deep into the game, I felt like my numbers would be justified, but alas they won by a point. I still don't have them up in the 99% range, but they got out of the 80s at least.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	7-1	0.660	70.2	97.4	77.6	46.4	27.3	15.1
BUF	7-2	0.644	99.1	99.6	65.6	36.6	20.0	10.9
KC	8-0	0.606	83.2	99.7	78.8	40.9	20.1	10.2
WSH	7-2	0.621	62.3	96.3	66.9	36.9	19.3	9.9
PIT	6-2	0.639	61.5	96.0	60.8	33.1	17.8	9.6
LAC	5-3	0.639	13.6	90.2	52.9	28.4	15.4	8.3
MIN	6-2	0.608	21.4	85.2	53.1	27.3	14.0	7.0
BAL	7-3	0.597	38.1	94.9	50.4	24.6	12.0	6.0
PHI	6-2	0.584	37.3	87.2	52.0	25.8	12.4	5.8
GB	6-3	0.566	6.3	62.8	32.8	15.0	7.0	3.2
ATL	6-3	0.509	83.0	86.9	39.1	16.3	6.6	2.6
HOU	6-3	0.502	89.7	93.7	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.4
DEN	5-4	0.550	3.2	60.9	27.4	11.9	5.2	2.3
SF	4-4	0.550	25.6	33.5	15.6	7.0	3.1	1.4
TB	4-5	0.525	16.5	38.4	17.3	7.2	3.1	1.3
ARI	5-4	0.487	46.7	51.7	20.5	8.0	3.1	1.2
CHI	4-4	0.552	2.1	21.8	10.7	4.8	2.2	1.0
IND	4-5	0.490	8.5	33.9	13.1	4.9	1.9	0.7
CIN	4-6	0.513	0.4	13.7	5.6	2.2	0.9	0.4
LAR	4-4	0.454	18.1	22.3	8.2	2.9	1.0	0.4
SEA	4-5	0.480	9.7	12.9	5.0	1.9	0.7	0.3
NYJ	3-6	0.473	0.8	10.2	3.7	1.4	0.5	0.2
DAL	3-5	0.408	0.4	2.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
NO	2-7	0.460	0.5	1.1	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0
JAX	2-7	0.403	0.8	2.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	2-6	0.371	0.0	2.3	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-6	0.369	1.0	1.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-7	0.369	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-7	0.358	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	2-7	0.350	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-7	0.366	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	2-7	0.295	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City