Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

I wasn't looking ahead very much last week and didn't realize Buffalo and Kansas City were playing this week. Those two have been jockeying for the top spot in my AFC projections for awhile now, and Buffalo came out on top. By virtue of their 9-1 record, Kansas City is still 32% likely to be the #1 seed, but Buffalo is up around 39%. In the NFC, Detroit decided to run up the score, which my projections reward handsomely, and I now have them over 1 in 3 to win the NFC, and 64% likely to be the #1 seed.

On the other end of things, I usually do a shorter run before the full 2 billion simulations, just to make sure thing seem to make sense, and I kept coming up with the NY Giants eliminated from the division. They are not yet eliminated, but we needed a lot more runs to stumble into a time they actually won the division. I keep less-rounded output from these runs, but I may also need to start outputting my raw numbers, because I don't know exactly how infrequent it happened, but it was less than 0.0000005%, which rounded to 0.00000000 in my output.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	9-1	0.718	79.5	99.8	88.6	56.6	35.3	21.1
BUF	9-2	0.674	100.0	100.0	74.9	43.2	24.3	12.8
PHI	8-2	0.647	81.6	99.3	66.7	37.6	18.4	9.5
LAC	7-3	0.662	20.8	97.9	60.6	33.1	18.0	9.2
PIT	8-2	0.645	88.0	99.5	65.8	35.4	18.4	9.1
MIN	8-2	0.645	17.5	96.7	64.7	33.1	16.6	8.5
KC	9-1	0.596	78.1	99.9	67.6	32.5	14.8	6.6
WSH	7-4	0.610	18.3	92.0	52.7	24.6	11.3	5.4
BAL	7-4	0.598	11.9	90.8	44.8	20.8	9.7	4.3
DEN	6-5	0.615	1.1	72.2	35.6	17.1	8.4	3.9
GB	7-3	0.569	2.9	79.2	39.5	15.8	6.8	3.0
ARI	6-4	0.534	65.9	69.0	28.8	11.7	4.4	1.8
HOU	6-4	0.496	91.2	93.4	35.3	12.7	4.6	1.6
TB	4-6	0.521	27.3	33.6	13.3	5.0	1.9	0.7
ATL	6-5	0.445	66.6	68.2	22.0	7.0	2.1	0.7
SF	5-5	0.552	11.1	20.2	8.7	3.5	1.4	0.6
IND	5-6	0.472	8.3	30.2	10.4	3.5	1.2	0.4
SEA	5-5	0.485	13.5	18.8	6.9	2.4	0.8	0.3
NO	4-7	0.504	5.7	8.0	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.1
LAR	5-5	0.450	9.4	11.9	4.0	1.3	0.4	0.1
CIN	4-7	0.502	0.1	4.7	1.8	0.6	0.2	0.1
MIA	4-6	0.415	0.0	10.0	2.9	0.8	0.3	0.1
CHI	4-6	0.516	0.0	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
NYJ	3-8	0.419	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	3-6	0.364	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	2-8	0.332	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-7	0.286	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-8	0.360	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
JAX	2-9	0.321	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	2-8	0.335	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LV	2-8	0.336	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	2-8	0.358	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo