2024-11-19

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 11, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Houston beat Dallas as expected, and are leading the AFC South by 2 full games at 7-4, and are the only team with a positive point differential in the division. Even so, they aren't a particularly strong team, and while they are 98% likely to make the playoffs, they under 7% to make the Super Bowl, even below 6-5 Denver.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
DET9-10.71879.599.888.456.535.221.0
BUF9-20.674100.0100.074.842.924.112.7
PHI8-20.64781.299.366.937.718.59.5
PIT8-20.64588.399.465.334.918.19.0
LAC7-30.66221.297.858.431.817.38.9
MIN8-20.64517.696.764.633.016.68.5
KC9-10.59677.799.966.031.614.36.4
WSH7-40.61018.893.053.424.911.55.5
BAL7-40.59811.690.043.520.19.44.2
DEN6-50.6151.171.535.016.78.23.8
GB7-30.5692.979.239.315.76.82.9
HOU7-40.54396.597.842.317.16.92.7
ARI6-40.53465.969.028.711.74.41.8
TB4-60.52127.934.313.55.11.90.7
ATL6-50.44566.067.721.87.02.10.7
SF5-50.55211.120.08.63.41.40.6
IND5-60.4723.328.59.93.31.20.4
SEA5-50.48513.518.76.92.40.80.3
NO4-70.5045.67.82.91.00.40.1
LAR5-50.4509.411.83.91.30.40.1
CIN4-70.5020.14.81.80.60.20.1
MIA4-60.4150.09.22.70.80.20.1
CHI4-60.5160.02.20.90.30.10.0
NYJ3-80.4190.00.50.10.00.00.0
TEN2-80.3320.20.30.10.00.00.0
CAR3-70.2860.40.50.10.00.00.0
NE3-80.3600.00.10.00.00.00.0
DAL3-70.3280.00.10.00.00.00.0
JAX2-90.3210.00.10.00.00.00.0
CLE2-80.3350.00.10.00.00.00.0
LV2-80.3360.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.3580.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo

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