Tenets of Wilson: 2024

2024-12-20

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 16, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

The LA Chargers beat Denver to take both teams to 9-6 on Thursday. Neither has clinched a playoff spot but both are very close. They won't clinch on Saturday, but could on Sunday, wrapping up the AFC playoff picture except for the seeding. Of interest on Saturday, 2 of the 3 possible #1 seeds are playing. Kansas City is the most likely to get the bye, and they play Houston, who is already in as a division winner, but will wind up somewhere between the #2 and #4 seed. Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the #1 seed still, and they'll play Baltimore, who could still win the NFC North, or miss the playoffs completely.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.8
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	69.6	41.0	23.8	11.8
MIN	12-2	0.712	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	13-1	0.641	++	++	85.2	43.8	21.3	9.1
DEN	9-6	0.661	-	93.3	46.3	23.5	12.5	5.6
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
PIT	10-4	0.640	76.3	++	52.9	26.1	12.8	5.4
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	98.9	53.0	25.7	12.4	5.2
LAC	9-6	0.616	-	98.8	48.6	22.7	10.4	4.2
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.5
TB	8-6	0.626	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	41.9	16.5	6.5	2.2
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.0	43.3	13.1	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.3	41.5	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	3.0	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	3.5	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	2.6	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo and Kansas City (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Buffalo (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 13, Friday)
First to clinch a Division: Buffalo (Week 13, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: New England, Las Vegas, and New York Giants (Week 12, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: New York Giants (Week 13, Thursday)

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] Minnesota over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] Pittsburgh over Detroit
[Week 8, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 8, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 9, Final] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Thursday] Detroit over Kansas City
[Week 10, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 10, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 11, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 12, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Friday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 13, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 14, Final] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Thursday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Sunday] Detroit over Buffalo
[Week 15, Final] Detroit over Buffalo

2024-12-17

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

The double Monday Night games didn't gain us any more playoff teams or eliminations, so everything stays pretty much the same. We do show Green Bay eliminated from the NFC North, but a tie between Detroit and Minnesota later could leave that window open for them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	73.3	++	87.2	53.8	31.7	19.7
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	69.6	40.9	20.9	12.1
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	71.1	41.8	24.1	11.9
MIN	12-2	0.712	26.7	++	75.1	39.7	20.2	11.5
KC	13-1	0.641	++	++	85.7	44.1	21.2	9.0
DEN	9-5	0.677	-	97.4	53.4	28.3	15.3	7.1
GB	10-4	0.662	-	99.5	54.1	23.4	10.7	5.5
PIT	10-4	0.640	76.3	++	52.1	25.4	12.4	5.3
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	99.0	52.4	25.2	12.1	5.1
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	90.5	41.0	16.3	7.2	3.4
LAC	8-6	0.605	-	90.3	40.9	18.4	8.3	3.2
TB	8-6	0.626	84.6	89.0	40.2	16.7	6.8	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	40.8	15.9	6.3	2.1
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.1	43.5	13.2	4.0	1.2	0.4
LAR	8-6	0.447	41.1	41.4	10.5	2.7	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.7	16.0	4.8	1.5	0.5	0.2
ATL	7-7	0.406	15.4	20.1	4.5	1.0	0.2	0.1
IND	6-8	0.403	-	8.1	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	3.9	1.0	0.3	0.1	0.0
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	4-10	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-12	0.267	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.230	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-16

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

We had a possible Super Bowl Prematch, a word I just made up. I had Detroit favored to win, and still would, but Buffalo won by scoring 48 of the 90(!) points in that game. Minnesota and Pittsburgh are into the playoffs, along with Houston winning the AFC South. Meanwhile, Carolina eliminated themselves with a loss, and Chicago has been eliminated by some combination of wins that raised the minimum bar for the #7 NFC seed. So now we've got 7 teams in, 9 teams out, 7 spots left up for grabs, and 9 eliminations to go.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-2	0.756	80.9	++	87.4	55.0	32.9	20.5
PHI	12-2	0.721	99.5	++	70.7	42.3	21.9	12.7
BUF	11-3	0.703	++	++	71.2	41.8	24.1	12.1
KC	13-1	0.642	++	++	85.8	44.1	21.2	9.2
MIN	11-2	0.682	18.9	++	69.0	33.7	16.0	8.5
DEN	9-5	0.677	-	97.4	53.5	28.3	15.3	7.2
GB	10-4	0.662	0.1	99.7	54.5	24.1	11.2	5.7
PIT	10-4	0.641	76.3	++	52.2	25.4	12.4	5.4
BAL	9-5	0.637	23.7	99.0	52.4	25.2	12.1	5.2
WSH	9-5	0.636	0.5	93.3	42.5	17.2	7.7	3.7
TB	8-6	0.627	89.6	92.3	42.3	18.1	7.5	3.5
LAC	8-6	0.605	-	90.0	40.7	18.3	8.2	3.2
HOU	9-5	0.555	++	++	40.8	15.9	6.3	2.2
SEA	8-6	0.504	43.3	43.6	14.0	4.3	1.3	0.5
LAR	8-6	0.447	40.8	41.1	11.2	2.9	0.7	0.2
ARI	7-7	0.516	15.9	16.2	5.3	1.7	0.5	0.2
ATL	6-7	0.399	10.4	13.6	3.1	0.7	0.2	0.0
IND	6-8	0.402	-	8.3	2.0	0.5	0.1	0.0
MIA	6-8	0.425	-	4.0	1.1	0.3	0.1	0.0
CIN	6-8	0.519	-	1.3	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	5-9	0.494	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	6-8	0.356	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-10	0.416	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-11	0.297	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.280	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-12	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-11	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-13

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

A touchdown-free game between two middling teams didn't do much except falsely eliminate San Francisco from the division in my standings. I believe a tie between Seattle and the LA Rams (and a bunch of other games going correctly) would allow San Francisco to still win the division.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.2	++	94.8	62.3	39.7	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.2	39.5	23.3	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.696	97.4	++	63.1	37.5	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.8	100.0	68.9	34.7	16.5	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.663	88.0	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.611	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.9	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.6	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	83.6	42.5	21.7	10.9	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	95.4	51.3	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.9	44.4	17.4	7.9	3.8
BAL	8-5	0.604	12.0	93.2	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.6	78.6	33.5	13.7	5.1	2.3
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	55.8	60.6	22.9	8.0	2.6	1.0
LAR	8-6	0.447	37.1	39.5	11.5	3.2	0.8	0.2
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.2	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.2	26.8	6.4	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	12.1	3.5	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	7.1	8.3	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.6	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	5-8	0.503	-	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
SF	6-8	0.488	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-8	0.334	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-10

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Cincinnati beat Dallas, but somehow neither team was eliminated. Give them another week or so.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.1	++	94.8	62.3	39.6	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.1	39.5	23.3	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.697	97.4	++	63.0	37.4	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.9	100.0	68.8	34.6	16.4	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.664	88.0	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.612	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.8	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.7	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	83.7	42.6	21.7	10.9	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	96.5	51.5	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.5	43.9	17.3	7.8	3.8
BAL	8-5	0.604	12.0	93.3	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.6	78.8	33.6	13.7	5.1	2.3
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	66.0	68.8	26.0	9.2	2.9	1.1
LAR	7-6	0.439	24.5	25.8	7.2	2.0	0.5	0.1
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.2	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.2	27.2	6.5	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	11.9	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	6.9	8.2	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
SF	6-7	0.500	2.6	4.4	1.4	0.4	0.1	0.0
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	5-8	0.503	-	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-8	0.334	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-09

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Philadelphia joins the playoff party with a win, and Kansas City once again magicked their way to a win which gave them a division title. Tennessee, the New York Jets, and Cleveland are all eliminated from the playoffs. Buffalo lost, opening the door for Kansas City to get the first round bye. Minnesota and Pittsburgh are on the brink of getting in, while Cincinnati, Dallas, Carolina, and Chicago are on the way out.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	89.1	++	94.8	62.3	39.7	25.5
BUF	10-3	0.702	++	++	67.1	39.5	23.2	11.6
PHI	11-2	0.697	97.4	++	63.1	37.4	17.7	9.9
MIN	11-2	0.682	10.9	100.0	68.8	34.6	16.4	8.9
PIT	10-3	0.664	88.2	99.9	61.0	32.2	17.2	7.8
KC	12-1	0.612	++	++	84.9	41.7	18.8	7.6
LAC	8-5	0.657	-	92.7	49.5	25.9	13.5	6.1
DEN	8-5	0.644	-	84.2	42.8	21.8	11.0	4.8
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	96.4	51.5	20.7	9.1	4.4
WSH	8-5	0.631	2.6	88.0	43.7	17.2	7.7	3.7
BAL	8-5	0.604	11.8	93.3	45.6	20.8	9.5	3.7
TB	7-6	0.590	74.3	78.5	33.5	13.7	5.1	2.2
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.5	39.6	15.2	5.9	2.0
SEA	8-5	0.537	66.0	68.8	26.0	9.2	3.0	1.2
LAR	7-6	0.439	24.5	25.8	7.3	2.0	0.5	0.1
IND	6-7	0.438	3.0	20.1	5.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
ATL	6-7	0.399	24.5	27.4	6.6	1.6	0.4	0.1
MIA	6-7	0.443	-	11.8	3.4	1.1	0.3	0.1
ARI	6-7	0.490	6.9	8.2	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1
SF	6-7	0.500	2.6	4.5	1.5	0.4	0.1	0.0
NO	5-8	0.496	1.2	1.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	-	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-10	0.254	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-9	0.449	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-10	0.400	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	3-10	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.291	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-11	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-11	0.285	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-06

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Detroit over Buffalo

Detroit clinched their playoff spot with a win on Thursday, but can't quite grab a division spot because of Minnesota right behind them. We should see a few more teams in and a few more out on Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	12-1	0.767	92.7	++	95.8	64.0	42.0	26.7
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.6	49.9	30.1	15.6
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	61.5	37.0	17.1	9.2
MIN	10-2	0.651	7.3	99.7	65.7	31.1	13.9	6.9
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.1	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.8
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.1	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.4	32.5	14.3	5.8
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	4.9
GB	9-4	0.633	0.0	95.9	53.7	22.4	10.1	4.8
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	88.1	45.7	18.6	8.6	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.7
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.5	25.6	10.1	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.5	47.7	17.6	6.2	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.0	39.1	14.3	5.0	1.5	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.2	13.9	3.9	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.5	16.2	4.7	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.453	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-03

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Final

Detroit over Buffalo

Denver beat Cleveland on Monday night, which fully eliminated Jacksonville. That's because it will take a minimum of 8 wins to make the AFC playoffs now, and Jacksonville has 10 losses already.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.2	100.0	91.1	60.1	38.7	24.4
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	82.7	50.0	30.1	15.8
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.5	100.0	66.4	39.0	18.6	10.0
MIN	10-2	0.651	12.3	99.7	66.1	31.4	14.3	7.1
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.3	97.0	55.2	28.6	14.7	6.9
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.9	99.5	56.8	28.9	14.0	6.2
KC	11-1	0.606	90.8	++	67.3	32.5	14.3	5.9
GB	9-3	0.640	2.5	97.3	57.0	25.1	11.5	5.6
DEN	8-5	0.644	1.0	86.0	44.9	21.8	11.0	5.0
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.5	87.8	43.9	18.3	8.5	4.1
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.1	94.0	45.9	20.7	9.3	3.8
HOU	8-5	0.538	97.0	97.6	39.4	15.3	5.8	2.0
TB	6-6	0.565	54.3	61.3	25.0	9.8	3.6	1.5
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.3	46.9	17.0	5.9	1.9	0.7
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.1	39.1	14.1	4.9	1.6	0.6
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.7	47.1	13.6	3.8	1.0	0.3
IND	6-7	0.438	2.9	19.0	5.8	1.7	0.5	0.1
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.6	16.2	4.6	1.3	0.3	0.1
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	6.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0
SF	5-7	0.454	2.0	2.6	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0
NO	4-8	0.491	1.0	1.3	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CLE	3-9	0.332	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.310	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-12-02

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Detroit over Buffalo

Buffalo has now officially joined the playoff party as a division winner, while New England eliminated themselves with a loss. Since Buffalo clinched, Miami and the New York Jets are also eliminated from winning a division. I also show Cincinnati unable to win their division, but I haven't quite run through all the scenarios. It does look like their best case is a 3-way tie with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, though.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	11-1	0.761	85.21	100.00	91.13	60.07	38.73	24.42
BUF	10-2	0.711	++	++	83.10	50.54	30.51	15.98
PHI	10-2	0.683	96.47	99.99	66.35	39.04	18.62	10.00
MIN	10-2	0.650	12.32	99.67	66.06	31.40	14.26	7.14
LAC	8-4	0.659	8.44	97.27	55.64	28.89	14.93	6.95
PIT	9-3	0.639	81.85	99.54	57.19	29.21	14.23	6.32
KC	11-1	0.606	90.85	++	67.94	33.02	14.53	5.97
GB	9-3	0.640	2.46	97.33	56.99	25.09	11.45	5.61
DEN	7-5	0.634	0.71	80.69	40.97	19.40	9.64	4.23
WSH	8-5	0.631	3.53	87.81	43.87	18.27	8.50	4.09
BAL	8-5	0.604	18.14	94.50	46.30	20.91	9.46	3.86
HOU	8-5	0.538	96.95	97.67	39.65	15.40	5.88	2.04
TB	6-6	0.565	54.30	61.26	24.99	9.80	3.58	1.48
SEA	7-5	0.514	44.30	46.86	17.03	5.92	1.87	0.68
ARI	6-6	0.514	38.07	39.11	14.07	4.91	1.56	0.57
ATL	6-6	0.435	44.72	47.09	13.56	3.83	0.98	0.29
IND	6-7	0.438	2.97	21.85	6.69	1.92	0.60	0.16
LAR	6-6	0.431	15.60	16.22	4.60	1.28	0.32	0.09
MIA	5-7	0.429	-	7.24	2.12	0.59	0.18	0.05
SF	5-7	0.454	2.03	2.61	0.77	0.22	0.06	0.02
NO	4-8	0.491	0.96	1.30	0.42	0.13	0.04	0.01
CIN	4-8	0.492	-	1.00	0.35	0.11	0.04	0.01
DAL	5-7	0.346	0.00	0.68	0.14	0.02	0.01	0.00
CHI	4-8	0.502	-	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	3-8	0.340	0.00	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	3-9	0.308	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.410	-	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CAR	3-9	0.269	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAX	2-10	0.312	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NE	3-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	2-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	2-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-