Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Minnesota over Kansas City

Here's a weird quirk. Buffalo is the most likely AFC team to win the Super Bowl, but not the most likely AFC team to make it there, an honor that currently belongs to Kansas City. That's because KC's record is better than Buffalo, while they are not nearly as strong (worse than also Pittsburgh and LA in the AFC), and not expected to win as many more games. But, they also have a 2 game lead in the division already, with all other teams being 2-2.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
MIN	4-0	0.589	69.0	91.9	68.9	38.9	21.7	12.2
BUF	3-1	0.560	62.1	81.5	53.4	29.1	15.6	8.1
KC	4-0	0.541	59.6	87.0	59.5	31.1	16.0	7.9
PIT	3-1	0.555	59.1	78.9	50.7	27.3	14.5	7.4
SEA	3-0	0.557	66.5	79.9	50.9	26.7	13.7	7.3
NO	2-2	0.583	37.4	63.9	38.5	21.0	11.4	6.3
TB	3-1	0.536	45.2	72.4	42.3	21.1	10.3	5.3
WSH	3-1	0.529	54.5	71.3	40.4	19.7	9.5	4.7
LAC	2-2	0.550	18.0	55.2	31.7	16.7	8.8	4.4
NYJ	2-2	0.534	28.9	58.1	32.9	16.8	8.5	4.2
BAL	2-2	0.531	25.9	50.0	27.7	14.1	7.1	3.5
DEN	2-2	0.520	15.4	47.6	26.1	12.9	6.4	3.0
SF	2-2	0.538	22.8	44.2	23.6	11.7	5.8	2.9
DET	2-1	0.520	14.1	48.6	26.0	12.4	5.9	2.9
HOU	3-1	0.471	54.9	67.7	34.9	15.4	6.7	2.9
IND	2-2	0.500	34.0	53.7	28.3	13.3	6.2	2.8
GB	2-2	0.526	8.7	39.0	20.4	9.8	4.8	2.4
CHI	2-2	0.505	8.1	35.7	18.1	8.3	3.8	1.8
DAL	2-2	0.488	20.8	37.4	18.0	7.9	3.5	1.6
PHI	2-2	0.481	21.2	39.3	18.5	8.0	3.5	1.6
ATL	2-2	0.479	14.8	35.1	16.6	7.2	3.1	1.4
LV	2-2	0.464	7.0	31.1	14.9	6.5	2.8	1.2
CIN	1-3	0.497	10.1	23.1	11.3	5.3	2.5	1.1
ARI	1-3	0.483	7.5	16.2	7.4	3.3	1.4	0.7
MIA	1-2	0.428	5.4	20.0	8.6	3.4	1.4	0.5
CLE	1-3	0.455	4.8	13.7	6.2	2.7	1.1	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	8.3	14.0	6.2	2.6	1.1	0.4
NE	1-3	0.425	3.6	13.7	5.8	2.3	0.9	0.3
NYG	1-3	0.446	3.5	9.1	3.8	1.5	0.6	0.3
LAR	1-3	0.435	3.2	7.5	3.1	1.2	0.5	0.2
CAR	1-3	0.420	2.6	8.5	3.4	1.3	0.5	0.2
JAX	0-4	0.417	2.8	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.3	0.1

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo
[Week 4, Thursday] Minnesota over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 4, Thursday

Minnesota over Buffalo

Neither Dallas nor the New York Giants were rated very highly, and Dallas won as was most probable, so nothing much changed on Thursday night. So, the projection remains Minnesota over Buffalo.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-0	0.575	67.0	89.8	63.9	35.9	19.8	10.6
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.2	84.7	60.0	33.7	18.6	10.2
PIT	3-0	0.567	76.5	89.6	62.9	34.8	18.8	10.0
NO	2-1	0.575	56.9	76.0	48.7	26.8	14.6	7.9
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.2	78.8	51.3	27.3	14.3	7.5
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.8	71.2	43.2	23.2	12.3	6.4
KC	3-0	0.524	42.6	76.3	45.9	22.9	11.2	5.5
NYJ	2-1	0.531	25.1	66.6	38.4	19.3	9.7	4.8
PHI	2-1	0.513	42.3	62.1	34.6	16.6	7.8	3.8
GB	2-1	0.532	20.0	51.5	29.2	14.5	7.2	3.6
DET	2-1	0.520	17.6	50.5	27.8	13.5	6.5	3.2
TB	2-1	0.504	27.9	55.1	29.6	13.9	6.5	3.0
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.3	37.7	20.3	10.1	5.0	2.5
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.1	38.5	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.2
HOU	2-1	0.464	49.4	58.8	28.5	12.2	5.2	2.2
WSH	2-1	0.486	30.3	47.4	24.0	10.7	4.8	2.2
IND	1-2	0.494	30.0	42.1	21.1	9.6	4.4	2.0
DAL	2-2	0.488	23.1	39.6	19.6	8.8	4.0	1.8
SF	1-2	0.507	12.1	27.5	13.9	6.5	3.1	1.5
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.5	28.1	13.7	6.3	2.9	1.3
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.0	12.4	5.6	2.6	1.2
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	24.9	11.8	5.1	2.2	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.464	7.8	25.8	12.0	5.2	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	4.8	25.3	11.5	4.8	2.1	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.5	24.1	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
CIN	0-3	0.479	5.2	15.5	7.2	3.2	1.4	0.6
MIA	1-2	0.428	3.1	19.8	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	11.4	16.4	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.4	13.8	6.1	2.5	1.0	0.4
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	15.6	6.6	2.6	1.0	0.4
JAX	0-3	0.429	9.2	12.1	5.0	2.0	0.8	0.3
NYG	1-3	0.446	4.3	9.7	4.2	1.7	0.7	0.3

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 3, Final] Minnesota over Buffalo

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Final

Minnesota over Buffalo

I sort of ignored Buffalo yesterday since they fell out of the top grouping, but that's only because they played on the Monday doubleheader. They beat Jacksonville by a large margin to push themselves to the top of the AFC, but not quite to Minnesota's strength yet, thanks mostly to the very stingy defense of Minnesota, having only allowed 30 points so far.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	3-0	0.575	67.0	89.8	63.9	36.0	19.8	10.7
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.2	84.9	60.3	33.9	18.8	10.3
PIT	3-0	0.567	76.6	89.5	62.8	34.8	18.8	10.0
NO	2-1	0.575	56.8	75.9	48.7	26.8	14.6	7.9
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.1	78.8	51.3	27.4	14.3	7.5
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.8	71.3	43.3	23.2	12.3	6.4
KC	3-0	0.524	42.6	76.3	45.9	22.9	11.2	5.5
NYJ	2-1	0.531	25.1	66.6	38.5	19.3	9.7	4.8
PHI	2-1	0.514	43.2	62.2	34.7	16.6	7.9	3.8
GB	2-1	0.532	20.0	51.7	29.3	14.6	7.3	3.6
DET	2-1	0.520	17.6	50.7	27.9	13.6	6.6	3.2
TB	2-1	0.504	27.9	55.1	29.6	13.9	6.5	3.0
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.4	37.9	20.5	10.2	5.0	2.5
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.1	38.6	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.2
HOU	2-1	0.464	49.5	58.9	28.5	12.2	5.2	2.2
WSH	2-1	0.486	31.2	47.9	24.2	10.9	4.9	2.2
IND	1-2	0.493	29.8	41.9	21.0	9.6	4.4	2.0
SF	1-2	0.507	12.2	27.7	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.5
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.4	28.0	13.6	6.2	2.8	1.3
DAL	1-2	0.482	16.1	28.9	13.9	6.2	2.7	1.2
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.2	12.5	5.7	2.6	1.2
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	24.9	11.8	5.2	2.3	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.464	7.8	25.8	12.0	5.2	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	4.8	25.3	11.5	4.8	2.1	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.5	24.1	11.0	4.7	2.0	0.9
CIN	0-3	0.479	5.2	15.5	7.2	3.2	1.4	0.6
NYG	1-2	0.458	9.5	18.6	8.4	3.5	1.5	0.6
MIA	1-2	0.428	3.1	19.8	8.4	3.3	1.3	0.5
TEN	0-3	0.446	11.4	16.4	7.1	2.9	1.2	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.4	13.8	6.1	2.5	1.0	0.4
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	15.7	6.7	2.6	1.1	0.4
JAX	0-3	0.429	9.2	12.2	5.0	2.0	0.8	0.3

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Sunday

Minnesota over Pittsburgh

We had a nice top-of-the-charts matchup early this year, and Pittsburgh upset the LA Chargers to take over the AFC lead. I always run one simulation that assumes the favorites win every game, just for fun, and before today, that had the unlikely result of LA, Minnesota, and Buffalo all going 17-0, and Pittsburgh losing only to LA this week and then again in the AFC Title game. New Orleans would also have had their only losses to LA, one during the season and one in the Super Bowl, beating Minnesota along the way in the playoffs. But, New Orleans also lost this week. Now that chalk simulation shows Minnesota and Pittsburgh still 17-0, but Minnesota taking the title.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
PIT	3-0	0.566	74.3	88.9	64.3	36.0	19.9	10.5
MIN	3-0	0.580	56.0	84.9	60.2	33.8	18.7	10.4
NO	2-1	0.575	56.8	76.5	49.2	27.1	14.7	8.1
SEA	3-0	0.557	64.2	79.5	52.2	27.8	14.6	7.8
LAC	2-1	0.560	38.5	70.7	43.8	23.9	12.9	6.7
BUF	2-0	0.538	53.1	77.6	49.3	25.8	13.3	6.7
KC	3-0	0.524	43.2	76.5	47.4	24.0	12.0	5.8
NYJ	2-1	0.531	34.6	66.9	39.5	20.2	10.3	5.1
PHI	2-1	0.513	46.7	63.3	35.3	16.9	8.0	3.9
GB	2-1	0.532	19.9	51.6	29.3	14.6	7.3	3.7
DET	2-1	0.520	17.9	51.3	28.3	13.7	6.7	3.3
TB	2-1	0.504	27.8	55.8	30.0	14.1	6.6	3.2
ARI	1-2	0.531	18.1	38.6	20.9	10.4	5.1	2.6
DEN	1-2	0.516	13.0	38.0	20.2	9.9	4.9	2.3
HOU	2-1	0.464	44.0	55.0	27.2	11.9	5.2	2.2
IND	1-2	0.494	26.2	38.8	19.8	9.2	4.3	2.0
WSH	1-1	0.476	23.9	37.6	18.3	8.0	3.5	1.6
SF	1-2	0.507	12.2	28.7	14.5	6.8	3.2	1.6
BAL	1-2	0.488	10.2	28.1	14.0	6.5	3.0	1.4
DAL	1-2	0.482	18.3	30.6	14.7	6.5	2.9	1.3
CHI	1-2	0.491	6.2	25.3	12.6	5.7	2.6	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.481	20.0	27.4	13.3	6.0	2.7	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	8.2	22.7	11.1	5.1	2.4	1.1
ATL	1-2	0.473	10.1	25.7	12.2	5.3	2.3	1.0
CLE	1-2	0.465	7.4	25.5	12.2	5.3	2.4	1.0
NE	1-2	0.456	7.2	25.7	11.9	5.1	2.2	0.9
LV	1-2	0.460	5.3	23.1	10.8	4.7	2.1	0.9
NYG	1-2	0.458	11.2	19.9	9.0	3.8	1.6	0.7
MIA	1-2	0.428	5.1	20.2	8.7	3.5	1.4	0.6
TEN	0-3	0.446	9.7	14.7	6.5	2.7	1.1	0.5
LAR	1-2	0.448	5.5	14.6	6.4	2.7	1.1	0.5
CAR	1-2	0.434	5.2	16.2	6.9	2.7	1.1	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 3, Thursday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

My new simulator also writes out the probabilities of the upcoming games, so I can see in real time how bad I am at this. New England was slightly favored over the Jets, and lost 24-3. That result didn't bother the Chargers, who are still atop the AFC and your most likely Super Bowl champ by just a hair.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	51.5	78.2	51.7	28.3	15.4	8.2
NO	2-0	0.555	48.3	78.1	52.1	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	60.8	77.2	49.8	26.6	14.0	7.3
MIN	2-0	0.548	48.3	73.5	47.8	25.6	13.6	7.2
BUF	2-0	0.539	50.4	75.9	48.3	25.4	13.3	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	37.4	72.3	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.3	73.4	43.4	21.7	10.7	5.3
NYJ	2-1	0.531	33.3	65.6	38.9	20.1	10.3	5.3
KC	2-0	0.514	31.7	66.0	38.6	19.2	9.5	4.7
SEA	2-0	0.517	41.3	62.4	36.6	18.3	9.1	4.5
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.6	53.1	30.9	16.0	8.2	4.2
PHI	1-1	0.506	35.8	49.6	26.8	13.0	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.7	43.1	23.5	11.6	5.7	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	18.0	40.3	21.7	10.5	5.0	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.9	37.7	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
GB	1-1	0.502	16.8	36.6	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	28.7	40.6	20.6	9.6	4.4	2.1
LV	1-1	0.481	11.4	37.9	19.2	8.8	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	18.1	38.7	19.6	8.9	4.1	1.9
ATL	1-1	0.483	11.8	36.2	18.7	8.7	4.0	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	26.5	38.4	19.0	8.6	3.9	1.8
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.4	33.4	16.2	7.2	3.2	1.4
IND	0-2	0.484	11.8	24.6	12.1	5.6	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.5	23.4	11.5	5.3	2.5	1.1
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.5	22.6	11.0	5.0	2.3	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.483	9.6	20.5	10.0	4.6	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.3	22.1	10.6	4.8	2.2	1.0
NE	1-2	0.455	6.0	22.2	10.3	4.5	2.0	0.8
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.3	18.4	8.7	3.9	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	9.0	15.0	6.8	2.9	1.3	0.6
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.5	12.1	5.4	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.0	5.0	2.2	0.9	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans
[Week 2, Final] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Final

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Now that week 2 is complete... let's still not read too much into a week 2 projection. Atlanta upset Philadelphia so both of them are in the muddled middle, as some sportswriter used to say, leaving our top projection the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	50.8	77.6	51.5	28.3	15.5	8.3
NO	2-0	0.555	48.2	78.2	52.1	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	61.4	77.8	50.6	27.1	14.4	7.5
MIN	2-0	0.548	49.1	74.1	48.3	25.9	13.7	7.3
BUF	2-0	0.539	52.4	75.7	48.4	25.6	13.4	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	37.4	72.3	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.5	73.5	43.7	21.9	10.9	5.4
KC	2-0	0.514	32.1	66.0	38.9	19.4	9.7	4.8
SEA	2-0	0.517	42.3	63.3	37.2	18.6	9.2	4.6
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.4	53.0	30.8	15.9	8.2	4.2
NE	1-1	0.507	20.4	47.8	26.3	12.9	6.3	3.1
PHI	1-1	0.506	35.9	49.7	26.8	13.0	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.0	42.2	22.9	11.3	5.6	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	17.4	39.6	21.2	10.2	4.9	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.8	37.7	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
NYJ	1-1	0.489	16.3	40.8	21.4	10.1	4.7	2.2
GB	1-1	0.502	16.7	36.6	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	28.7	40.7	20.6	9.5	4.4	2.1
LV	1-1	0.481	11.6	37.9	19.3	8.9	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	17.9	38.7	19.7	9.0	4.2	1.9
ATL	1-1	0.483	11.8	36.2	18.7	8.6	4.0	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	26.4	38.4	19.0	8.6	3.9	1.8
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.9	33.1	16.1	7.2	3.2	1.4
IND	0-2	0.484	11.9	24.6	12.2	5.7	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.3	23.4	11.5	5.4	2.5	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.5	22.6	11.0	5.1	2.4	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.482	9.4	20.4	10.1	4.7	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.0	21.5	10.4	4.7	2.1	1.0
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.6	18.8	9.0	4.0	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	9.0	15.0	6.8	2.9	1.3	0.6
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.5	12.1	5.4	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.0	5.0	2.1	0.9	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans
[Week 2, Sunday] Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Los Angeles Chargers over New Orleans

Let's not read too much into a week 2 projection, but it's at least the same matchup from week 1.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	2-0	0.556	50.8	77.6	51.6	28.3	15.5	8.3
NO	2-0	0.555	50.0	78.6	52.2	28.3	15.3	8.2
PIT	2-0	0.544	61.4	77.7	50.6	27.1	14.4	7.5
MIN	2-0	0.548	49.1	74.3	48.1	25.7	13.7	7.3
BUF	2-0	0.539	52.4	75.7	48.4	25.6	13.4	6.9
TB	2-0	0.535	38.9	72.8	45.5	23.6	12.2	6.3
HOU	2-0	0.515	62.5	73.5	43.7	21.9	10.9	5.4
KC	2-0	0.514	32.1	66.0	38.9	19.4	9.7	4.8
SEA	2-0	0.517	42.3	63.4	37.0	18.4	9.1	4.6
ARI	1-1	0.534	30.4	53.1	30.8	15.9	8.2	4.2
PHI	1-0	0.507	43.0	59.6	33.7	16.4	7.9	3.9
NE	1-1	0.507	20.4	47.8	26.3	12.9	6.3	3.1
SF	1-1	0.513	23.0	42.3	22.9	11.3	5.6	2.8
CHI	1-1	0.502	17.4	39.7	21.2	10.2	4.9	2.4
DET	1-1	0.504	16.8	37.9	20.1	9.7	4.7	2.3
NYJ	1-1	0.489	16.3	40.8	21.4	10.1	4.7	2.2
GB	1-1	0.502	16.7	36.8	19.5	9.4	4.5	2.2
DAL	1-1	0.486	25.6	39.7	20.1	9.3	4.3	2.0
LV	1-1	0.481	11.6	37.9	19.3	8.9	4.1	1.9
CLE	1-1	0.478	17.9	38.7	19.7	9.0	4.2	1.9
WSH	1-1	0.476	23.5	37.5	18.5	8.4	3.8	1.7
MIA	1-1	0.465	10.9	33.1	16.1	7.2	3.2	1.4
ATL	0-1	0.479	8.5	26.5	13.3	6.1	2.8	1.3
IND	0-2	0.484	11.9	24.6	12.2	5.7	2.6	1.2
CIN	0-2	0.485	11.3	23.4	11.5	5.4	2.5	1.2
JAX	0-2	0.480	13.6	22.6	11.0	5.1	2.4	1.1
BAL	0-2	0.482	9.5	20.4	10.1	4.7	2.2	1.0
TEN	0-2	0.473	12.0	21.5	10.4	4.7	2.1	1.0
DEN	0-2	0.469	5.6	18.8	9.0	4.0	1.8	0.8
NYG	0-2	0.454	7.8	14.5	6.6	2.8	1.2	0.5
CAR	0-2	0.442	2.7	12.2	5.5	2.3	1.0	0.4
LAR	0-2	0.451	4.3	11.1	5.0	2.2	0.9	0.4

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers
[Week 2, Thursday] Buffalo over New Orleans

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Buffalo over New Orleans

This is the only dumber post than week 1 of my college football rankings, where every 1-0 team is tied. That's because we almost always have a single 2-0 and/or 0-2 team that skews everything due to the way I regress the strengths when only a few games have been played. But at least it gives me something to complain about every year.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	2-0	0.539	49.2	74.6	49.2	26.5	14.3	7.5
LAC	1-0	0.524	40.3	63.7	39.2	20.4	10.6	5.4
NO	1-0	0.529	41.6	63.1	38.5	20.1	10.4	5.4
PIT	1-0	0.521	46.5	63.3	38.5	19.9	10.2	5.2
MIN	1-0	0.529	33.4	59.8	36.6	19.1	9.9	5.2
NE	1-0	0.518	29.8	59.9	36.3	18.6	9.5	4.8
DAL	1-0	0.522	39.3	59.0	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
TB	1-0	0.521	36.2	59.1	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
KC	1-0	0.512	33.4	58.1	34.6	17.6	8.9	4.5
SF	1-0	0.519	35.6	55.0	32.4	16.5	8.4	4.3
HOU	1-0	0.503	41.4	57.9	33.5	16.6	8.2	4.1
PHI	1-0	0.507	34.2	55.9	32.3	16.0	7.9	4.0
CHI	1-0	0.514	28.4	52.7	30.7	15.5	7.8	4.0
SEA	1-0	0.511	34.1	53.8	31.2	15.6	7.8	3.9
DET	1-0	0.511	26.1	51.4	29.8	14.9	7.5	3.8
IND	0-1	0.497	18.9	34.8	18.7	9.2	4.5	2.2
JAX	0-1	0.493	20.5	34.2	18.2	8.8	4.3	2.1
DEN	0-1	0.489	15.3	33.5	17.8	8.6	4.1	2.0
TEN	0-1	0.486	19.2	33.6	17.8	8.5	4.1	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.488	18.2	32.4	17.0	8.2	3.9	1.9
ARI	0-1	0.492	15.8	31.1	16.4	7.9	3.8	1.8
CIN	0-1	0.482	18.3	31.9	16.5	7.8	3.7	1.8
CLE	0-1	0.478	17.0	31.8	16.4	7.7	3.6	1.7
GB	0-1	0.493	12.1	28.0	14.7	7.1	3.4	1.7
NYJ	0-1	0.481	10.6	29.6	15.5	7.3	3.5	1.6
LAR	0-1	0.489	14.5	28.0	14.5	6.9	3.3	1.6
MIA	1-1	0.464	10.5	32.8	16.5	7.5	3.4	1.6
ATL	0-1	0.479	12.5	27.3	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.4
LV	0-1	0.476	11.0	27.8	14.2	6.7	3.1	1.4
WSH	0-1	0.479	13.9	27.3	13.8	6.4	3.0	1.4
NYG	0-1	0.471	12.6	24.7	12.2	5.6	2.6	1.2
CAR	0-1	0.471	9.7	23.8	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2

[Week 1, Final] New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers

Super Bowl LIX Projection, Week 1, Final

New Orleans over Los Angeles Chargers

Copy, Paste, Repeat:

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I've really got to stop taking the entire football offseason off. Life's busy these days. I've made some progress on a new version of my simulation software but it's not quite ready, hence I'll go with the old one for the 2024 season. Maybe by UFL season we'll have the more generic one. I'm posting this a bit late but backdating so you won't know it. Unless you actually read this paragraph, I guess.

Week 1 isn't terribly meaningful, usually. Last year predicted Dallas over Cleveland. They did win 23 games combined, but both lost in the first round of the playoffs. As a quick reminder, my projection as stated in the opening line consists of the two teams most likely to win the two conferences, with the stronger one listed as the winner. So while LA is the most likely winner (by a hair), New Orleans wins the matchup between them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
LAC	1-0	0.524	40.3	63.5	39.4	20.6	10.8	5.5
NO	1-0	0.529	41.6	63.1	38.6	20.1	10.4	5.5
PIT	1-0	0.521	46.5	63.1	38.6	20.0	10.4	5.3
MIN	1-0	0.529	33.4	59.9	36.6	19.1	9.9	5.2
NE	1-0	0.518	31.1	59.2	36.1	18.6	9.6	4.9
DAL	1-0	0.522	39.3	59.0	35.4	18.2	9.3	4.8
TB	1-0	0.521	36.2	59.2	35.5	18.2	9.3	4.8
KC	1-0	0.512	33.8	58.3	35.0	17.8	9.1	4.6
SF	1-0	0.519	35.7	55.0	32.4	16.5	8.4	4.3
MIA	1-0	0.507	29.2	56.6	33.6	16.9	8.5	4.2
BUF	1-0	0.508	28.6	54.6	32.4	16.4	8.3	4.1
HOU	1-0	0.503	41.2	57.6	33.4	16.7	8.3	4.1
PHI	1-0	0.507	34.2	56.0	32.4	16.1	7.9	4.0
CHI	1-0	0.514	28.4	52.8	30.8	15.5	7.8	4.0
SEA	1-0	0.511	34.2	53.8	31.1	15.6	7.8	4.0
DET	1-0	0.511	26.4	51.9	30.1	15.1	7.6	3.8
IND	0-1	0.497	18.8	34.4	18.6	9.2	4.5	2.2
JAX	0-1	0.493	20.8	34.5	18.4	9.0	4.4	2.1
DEN	0-1	0.489	15.2	33.3	17.8	8.6	4.2	2.0
TEN	0-1	0.486	19.1	33.3	17.7	8.5	4.1	1.9
BAL	0-1	0.488	18.5	32.7	17.2	8.3	4.0	1.9
ARI	0-1	0.492	15.5	30.6	16.1	7.7	3.7	1.8
CIN	0-1	0.482	18.3	31.8	16.5	7.9	3.8	1.8
CLE	0-1	0.478	16.6	31.0	16.1	7.6	3.6	1.7
GB	0-1	0.493	11.8	27.5	14.5	7.0	3.4	1.6
NYJ	0-1	0.481	11.1	29.0	15.3	7.3	3.5	1.6
LAR	0-1	0.489	14.5	27.9	14.5	6.9	3.3	1.6
ATL	0-1	0.479	12.5	27.4	14.0	6.6	3.1	1.5
LV	0-1	0.476	10.7	27.1	13.9	6.6	3.1	1.4
WSH	0-1	0.479	13.9	27.3	13.8	6.5	3.0	1.4
NYG	0-1	0.471	12.6	24.7	12.3	5.6	2.6	1.2
CAR	0-1	0.471	9.7	23.9	11.9	5.5	2.5	1.2