Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Sunday

New England over Dallas

I thought for sure Dallas would no longer be the NFC favorites after losing to New Orleans this week, but here we are. It was a close game, so it didn't have too much of a negative effect on their points-based strength. And who else would challenge them? San Francisco is now the only undefeated NFC team, but they had the week off so they're only 3-0. Chicago is 3-1 but losing their division on a tiebreaker, hurting their overall chances. And Seattle and the LA Rams are splitting the division champ chances with San Francisco, keeping any one of them from dominating the conference.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	4-0	0.622	81.22	95.72	85.30	51.13	30.14	17.44
DAL	3-1	0.593	68.74	75.95	57.13	32.22	18.03	9.60
KC	4-0	0.561	71.64	85.87	69.46	36.60	18.15	9.38
SF	3-0	0.565	51.26	73.35	57.33	30.50	15.97	8.05
CHI	3-1	0.564	36.59	58.11	41.71	21.99	11.50	5.79
BUF	3-1	0.534	18.31	65.96	40.50	18.90	9.08	4.44
TEN	2-2	0.564	31.72	49.34	33.07	16.81	8.44	4.39
BAL	2-2	0.552	45.88	54.87	34.06	16.78	8.24	4.18
GB	3-1	0.538	33.24	51.86	35.33	17.56	8.68	4.14
LAR	3-1	0.522	24.22	48.96	32.23	15.46	7.39	3.41
SEA	3-1	0.527	23.82	45.70	29.83	14.46	6.97	3.25
LAC	2-2	0.535	19.99	43.88	27.31	13.09	6.17	3.03
CAR	2-2	0.531	28.21	37.14	22.93	11.13	5.39	2.53
MIN	2-2	0.550	13.58	30.73	19.50	9.92	5.04	2.47
NO	3-1	0.483	35.46	45.22	27.73	12.11	5.27	2.23
CLE	2-2	0.496	38.19	46.29	25.57	11.12	4.82	2.18
TB	2-2	0.509	30.19	37.50	21.96	10.14	4.68	2.10
JAC	2-2	0.500	23.93	37.59	21.09	9.22	4.03	1.83
HOU	2-2	0.500	22.08	35.63	20.81	9.16	4.01	1.82
DET	2-1-1	0.504	16.59	31.33	19.18	8.86	4.08	1.81
PHI	2-2	0.509	19.12	29.02	16.81	7.88	3.69	1.65
IND	2-2	0.485	22.27	32.62	18.07	7.68	3.23	1.42
NYG	2-2	0.480	11.83	23.73	12.99	5.69	2.49	1.05
OAK	2-2	0.455	7.27	22.66	11.53	4.55	1.79	0.74
CIN	0-3	0.447	8.42	11.24	5.19	1.99	0.77	0.31
PIT	0-3	0.437	7.51	10.21	4.56	1.70	0.64	0.25
ATL	1-3	0.441	6.13	8.40	4.01	1.58	0.62	0.24
DEN	0-4	0.450	1.09	3.18	1.48	0.57	0.23	0.09
NYJ	0-3	0.424	0.35	3.91	1.64	0.58	0.22	0.08
ARI	0-3-1	0.428	0.69	2.30	1.04	0.40	0.15	0.06
WAS	0-4	0.413	0.31	0.69	0.28	0.11	0.04	0.01
MIA	0-4	0.376	0.13	1.04	0.38	0.12	0.04	0.01

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 4, Thursday] New England over Dallas

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

I've still got Auburn up at #1 after their win over Mississippi State, now #31. Last week's #2, California, lost to #9 Arizona State, and falls all the way to #11, and Boise State fell out of the #3 spot on bye. Ohio State enters playoff position, rising to #2 by beating Nebraska. SMU jumps up one spot to #3, winning against lowly South Florida. The last new playoff team this week is Clemson, up from #6 to #4, and notably still ahead of Alabama in my rankings.

18 undefeated teams remain as just 5 lost this week.

Missouri was on bye this week, but lost 13 spots because of other teams winning.

Akron took over the bottom spot by losing to otherwise-winless UMass, and Vanderbilt also won their first game, so we're down to 3 winless teams.

1	Auburn	5-0
2	Ohio State	5-0
3	SMU	5-0
4	Clemson	5-0
5	Alabama	5-0
6	Wake Forest	5-0
7	Florida	5-0
8	Washington	4-1
9	Arizona State	4-1
10	Hawai'i	4-1
11	California	4-1
12	Boise State	4-0
13	Michigan State	4-1
14	Penn State	4-0
15	Georgia	4-0
16	Appalachian State	4-0
17	UCF	4-1
18	Oklahoma State	4-1
19	Virginia	4-1
20	Utah	4-1
21	Memphis	4-0
22	Minnesota	4-0
23	Wisconsin	4-0
24	Iowa	4-0
25	Wyoming	4-1
26	Oklahoma	4-0
27	LSU	4-0
28	Louisiana	4-1
29	Oregon	3-1
30	Baylor	4-0
31	Mississippi State	3-2
32	West Virginia	3-1
33	Notre Dame	3-1
34	Missouri	3-1
35	Pittsburgh	3-2
36	Texas	3-1
37	Florida State	3-2
38	Utah State	3-1
39	Colorado	3-1
40	USC	3-2
41	Eastern Michigan	3-1
42	Duke	3-1
43	TCU	3-1
44	Kansas State	3-1
45	Louisiana Tech	4-1
46	Cincinnati	3-1
47	Syracuse	3-2
48	Southern Mississippi	3-2
49	Western Michigan	3-2
50	Liberty	3-2
51	Texas A&M	3-2
52	Arizona	3-1
53	Air Force	3-1
54	Arkansas State	3-2
55	Michigan	3-1
56	Nevada	3-2
57	Florida Atlantic	3-2
T-58	NC State	3-2
T-58	Toledo	3-1
60	Tulane	3-1
61	Nebraska	3-2
62	San Diego State	3-1
63	Coastal Carolina	3-2
64	Boston College	3-2
65	Temple	3-1
66	Indiana	3-2
67	East Carolina	3-2
68	Tulsa	2-2
69	UAB	3-1
70	Army	3-1
71	Miami (OH)	2-3
72	Washington State	3-2
73	Ole Miss	2-3
74	North Carolina	2-3
75	Kent State	2-2
76	Kentucky	2-3
77	Texas Tech	2-2
78	Navy	2-1
79	Louisville	2-2
80	BYU	2-3
81	Texas State	2-3
82	Miami	2-2
83	Iowa State	2-2
84	Kansas	2-3
85	Maryland	2-2
86	Virginia Tech	2-2
87	Western Kentucky	2-2
88	Marshall	2-2
89	Georgia State	2-2
90	New Mexico	2-2
91	Troy	2-2
92	Stanford	2-3
93	Buffalo	2-3
94	Fresno State	2-2
95	Houston	2-3
96	North Texas	2-3
97	South Carolina	2-3
98	San Jose State	2-2
99	Charlotte	2-3
100	Central Michigan	2-3
101	Illinois	2-2
102	UL Monroe	2-2
103	Arkansas	2-3
104	Georgia Southern	1-3
105	UTEP	1-3
106	UCLA	1-4
107	Oregon State	1-3
108	Purdue	1-3
109	South Florida	1-3
110	Northwestern	1-3
111	Northern Illinois	1-3
112	Ball State	1-3
113	Middle Tennessee	1-3
114	Florida International	1-3
115	Tennessee	1-3
116	Rutgers	1-3
117	Old Dominion	1-3
118	Vanderbilt	1-3
119	UTSA	1-3
120	Georgia Tech	1-3
121	Ohio	1-3
122	Bowling Green	1-3
123	UConn	1-3
124	UNLV	1-3
125	Colorado State	1-4
126	South Alabama	1-4
127	Rice	0-5
128	UMass	1-4
129	New Mexico State	0-5
130	Akron	0-5

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn
Week 4 Auburn

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 4, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Green Bay suffered their first loss of the year, as Philadelphia upset them at home. I was kind of curious which result would be worse for Dallas, having Green Bay reach 4-0 while they're only at 3-0, or their division rival Philadelphia getting within 1 win of them. The answer, I suppose, is that the Philadelphia win helped more than it hurt. Dallas's NFC and Super Bowl chances went up just  a little, by 0.1% and 0.06%, respectively. They're about 5% less likely to win the division and 2.5% less to make the playoffs, but that's offset by weaker average opponents. But we're talking very small numbers here, so in the end, nothing really changed.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	3-0	0.593	59.57	88.84	71.39	40.60	22.86	12.60
DAL	3-0	0.578	74.45	81.41	63.43	34.91	18.97	10.09
KC	3-0	0.555	74.15	83.83	65.67	34.48	17.55	9.01
SF	3-0	0.565	45.39	71.52	54.52	29.06	15.33	7.96
BAL	2-1	0.567	70.16	75.97	53.17	28.25	14.82	7.78
LAR	3-0	0.555	41.49	69.52	52.03	27.06	13.98	7.12
BUF	3-0	0.544	39.34	78.36	55.12	27.58	13.91	6.97
MIN	2-1	0.560	25.08	47.36	32.89	17.20	8.93	4.59
GB	3-1	0.538	31.82	52.76	36.14	18.06	8.95	4.40
HOU	2-1	0.513	32.88	51.12	32.55	15.25	7.07	3.33
DET	2-0-1	0.513	25.00	44.76	29.53	13.97	6.57	3.07
CHI	2-1	0.533	18.09	37.50	24.48	12.08	5.94	2.89
IND	2-1	0.498	33.77	49.94	30.86	13.96	6.25	2.85
TEN	1-2	0.534	17.36	34.55	21.31	10.38	5.04	2.48
NO	2-1	0.482	34.93	39.63	21.96	9.58	4.18	1.82
PHI	2-2	0.509	18.98	30.74	17.87	8.38	3.93	1.82
CAR	1-2	0.517	25.42	30.13	16.95	7.97	3.75	1.77
SEA	2-1	0.495	11.09	26.97	15.94	7.22	3.27	1.47
JAC	1-2	0.495	15.99	29.53	16.29	7.26	3.24	1.47
LAC	1-2	0.491	15.36	29.46	16.32	7.28	3.22	1.45
TB	1-2	0.483	22.30	25.22	12.88	5.61	2.45	1.07
CLE	1-2	0.461	16.22	23.83	11.97	4.99	2.08	0.87
ATL	1-2	0.470	17.35	20.49	10.43	4.42	1.87	0.80
OAK	1-2	0.442	7.00	17.05	8.30	3.28	1.30	0.52
NYG	1-2	0.450	5.12	11.79	5.89	2.40	0.99	0.40
CIN	0-3	0.447	7.27	11.21	5.21	2.09	0.85	0.34
PIT	0-3	0.437	6.35	9.90	4.47	1.75	0.69	0.27
DEN	0-3	0.452	3.49	7.97	3.86	1.56	0.64	0.26
ARI	0-2-1	0.459	2.03	6.91	3.51	1.46	0.61	0.25
WAS	0-3	0.450	1.45	3.29	1.54	0.63	0.26	0.11
NYJ	0-3	0.424	0.47	4.19	1.78	0.67	0.26	0.10
MIA	0-3	0.407	0.62	4.24	1.74	0.62	0.23	0.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Final] New England over Dallas

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Final

New England over Dallas

Chicago beat Washington, and the Bears are a surprising 2-1 after a pretty bad week 1 loss. Of course, the projection at the top stays the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	3-0	0.593	59.58	88.93	71.52	40.67	22.90	12.54
DAL	3-0	0.577	79.42	83.89	64.11	34.98	18.87	10.03
KC	3-0	0.555	74.08	83.67	65.41	34.34	17.48	8.91
BAL	2-1	0.567	70.12	75.95	53.17	28.25	14.82	7.73
SF	3-0	0.565	45.09	70.63	53.50	28.32	14.82	7.69
GB	3-0	0.560	45.70	69.35	52.13	27.27	14.10	7.23
BUF	3-0	0.544	39.33	78.51	55.24	27.64	13.93	6.94
LAR	3-0	0.555	41.62	68.72	51.24	26.47	13.56	6.90
MIN	2-1	0.560	20.00	46.00	30.97	16.03	8.28	4.25
HOU	2-1	0.513	32.89	51.14	32.59	15.27	7.09	3.31
IND	2-1	0.498	33.78	49.98	30.90	13.98	6.26	2.83
DET	2-0-1	0.513	20.02	42.38	27.24	12.77	5.97	2.79
CHI	2-1	0.533	14.27	36.23	22.96	11.22	5.48	2.67
TEN	1-2	0.534	17.34	34.55	21.32	10.38	5.05	2.46
NO	2-1	0.482	35.05	39.46	21.51	9.30	4.02	1.75
CAR	1-2	0.517	25.18	29.60	16.44	7.66	3.58	1.69
JAC	1-2	0.495	16.00	29.55	16.31	7.27	3.25	1.46
LAC	1-2	0.491	15.36	29.24	16.19	7.21	3.20	1.43
SEA	2-1	0.495	11.24	26.45	15.53	6.99	3.14	1.41
TB	1-2	0.483	22.38	25.12	12.65	5.45	2.36	1.03
PHI	1-2	0.496	13.08	19.78	10.69	4.84	2.20	0.99
CLE	1-2	0.461	16.24	23.86	11.99	4.99	2.08	0.87
ATL	1-2	0.470	17.39	20.24	10.17	4.26	1.80	0.76
OAK	1-2	0.442	7.00	16.90	8.23	3.26	1.29	0.51
NYG	1-2	0.450	5.76	12.04	5.91	2.40	0.98	0.40
CIN	0-3	0.447	7.28	11.23	5.22	2.10	0.85	0.34
PIT	0-3	0.437	6.36	9.92	4.48	1.75	0.69	0.27
DEN	0-3	0.452	3.56	8.03	3.89	1.58	0.64	0.26
ARI	0-2-1	0.459	2.05	6.67	3.38	1.39	0.58	0.24
WAS	0-3	0.450	1.73	3.42	1.58	0.64	0.26	0.11
NYJ	0-3	0.424	0.47	4.24	1.80	0.67	0.26	0.10
MIA	0-3	0.407	0.62	4.29	1.75	0.62	0.23	0.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Sunday] New England over Dallas

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Sunday

New England over Dallas

New England and Dallas both won and maintained their conference leads. New England would be running away with things, except that Buffalo is also 3-0. Combined, they account for almost 99% of the division title chances. Miami played Dallas after facing New England last week, and as a result is now weakest team in the league, and the New York Jets are also 0-3, having lost to New England this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	3-0	0.593	59.60	88.72	71.25	40.52	22.81	12.52
DAL	3-0	0.577	77.97	83.34	64.38	35.28	19.08	10.14
KC	3-0	0.555	74.18	84.01	65.99	34.66	17.65	9.02
SF	3-0	0.565	44.35	71.09	53.61	28.45	14.93	7.75
BAL	2-1	0.567	70.12	75.92	53.09	28.20	14.79	7.73
GB	3-0	0.560	48.75	71.02	53.62	28.17	14.59	7.49
LAR	3-0	0.555	42.47	70.68	52.79	27.37	14.05	7.15
BUF	3-0	0.544	39.32	78.12	54.93	27.49	13.85	6.92
MIN	2-1	0.560	22.55	49.39	33.43	17.35	8.97	4.61
HOU	2-1	0.513	32.87	51.07	32.50	15.23	7.07	3.31
DET	2-0-1	0.513	22.72	45.68	29.50	13.87	6.50	3.03
IND	2-1	0.498	33.78	49.88	30.80	13.93	6.24	2.83
TEN	1-2	0.534	17.35	34.49	21.26	10.36	5.04	2.46
NO	2-1	0.482	35.79	40.63	22.35	9.69	4.21	1.84
CAR	1-2	0.517	24.68	29.43	16.43	7.68	3.60	1.70
SEA	2-1	0.495	11.16	27.34	16.00	7.21	3.25	1.46
LAC	1-2	0.491	15.39	29.80	16.54	7.37	3.27	1.46
JAC	1-2	0.495	16.00	29.49	16.25	7.25	3.24	1.46
TB	1-2	0.483	22.24	25.24	12.80	5.53	2.41	1.05
PHI	1-2	0.496	12.61	20.04	10.92	4.95	2.26	1.02
CLE	1-2	0.461	16.24	23.83	11.97	4.99	2.08	0.87
CHI	1-1	0.479	5.98	17.49	9.70	4.21	1.83	0.79
ATL	1-2	0.470	17.28	20.40	10.31	4.34	1.84	0.78
OAK	1-2	0.442	7.02	17.32	8.44	3.34	1.32	0.53
NYG	1-2	0.450	5.41	12.13	5.98	2.43	0.99	0.40
WAS	0-2	0.476	4.01	9.08	4.64	2.01	0.88	0.38
CIN	0-3	0.447	7.28	11.21	5.21	2.10	0.85	0.34
PIT	0-3	0.437	6.36	9.90	4.47	1.75	0.69	0.27
DEN	0-3	0.452	3.41	7.92	3.83	1.55	0.63	0.26
ARI	0-2-1	0.459	2.02	7.03	3.54	1.46	0.61	0.25
NYJ	0-3	0.424	0.47	4.13	1.76	0.66	0.25	0.10
MIA	0-3	0.407	0.62	4.19	1.71	0.61	0.22	0.08

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Dallas

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Auburn won to hold onto #1 in the rankings. Arizona State lost to fall from #2 to #18, and Ohio State won but still dropped 3 places to #5. California rose from #4 to #2, still in my playoff bracket. New to my top 4 this week are Boise State up from #8 to #3, and SMU, up from #20 to #4 with a win over TCU.

We lost 12 more undefeated teams, but still have 23 left.

Missouri is making that opening week upset loss look worse and worse with each win. They're now up to #21, and would probably be in with the 12 4-0 teams if they had won. Although, they are being somewhat propped up by having played Wyoming, who is only one spot behind them at #22.

Also, I haven't been talking much about the teams at the bottom, partially because just like the top, we still have a bunch of teams bunched together, but in this case at 0-4 instead of 4-0. We're down to 5 winless teams though, with UMass bringing up the rear down at #130. However, they'll get a chance to play #129 next week against Akron. It doesn't appear there are any other matchups scheduled for the rest of the year between the 0-for teams.

1	Auburn	4-0
2	California	4-0
3	Boise State	4-0
4	SMU	4-0
5	Ohio State	4-0
6	Clemson	4-0
7	Virginia	4-0
8	Wake Forest	4-0
9	Georgia	4-0
10	Florida	4-0
11	Alabama	4-0
12	LSU	4-0
13	West Virginia	3-1
14	Mississippi State	3-1
15	Oregon	3-1
16	Penn State	3-0
17	Eastern Michigan	3-1
18	Arizona State	3-1
19	Hawai'i	3-1
20	Washington	3-1
21	Missouri	3-1
22	Wyoming	3-1
23	Appalachian State	3-0
T-24	Texas	3-1
T-24	Oklahoma State	3-1
26	Colorado	3-1
27	Kansas State	3-0
28	Michigan State	3-1
29	Wisconsin	3-0
30	Minnesota	3-0
31	Utah	3-1
32	USC	3-1
33	Iowa	3-0
34	UCF	3-1
35	Nebraska	3-1
36	Memphis	3-0
37	Boston College	3-1
38	NC State	3-1
39	Nevada	3-1
40	Coastal Carolina	3-1
41	Oklahoma	3-0
42	UAB	3-0
43	Louisiana	3-1
44	San Diego State	3-1
45	Tulane	3-1
46	Indiana	3-1
47	Louisiana Tech	3-1
48	Kentucky	2-2
49	Utah State	2-1
50	Baylor	3-0
51	Tulsa	2-2
52	Army	3-1
53	Kansas	2-2
T-54	Notre Dame	2-1
T-54	Ole Miss	2-2
56	Southern Mississippi	2-2
57	Arizona	2-1
58	Syracuse	2-2
59	TCU	2-1
60	Pittsburgh	2-2
61	BYU	2-2
62	Kent State	2-2
63	Texas Tech	2-1
64	Michigan	2-1
65	North Carolina	2-2
66	North Texas	2-2
67	Duke	2-1
68	Air Force	2-1
69	Washington State	3-1
70	Florida State	2-2
71	Texas A&M	2-2
72	Cincinnati	2-1
73	Liberty	2-2
74	Iowa State	2-1
75	Navy	2-0
76	Miami	2-2
77	Western Michigan	2-2
78	Virginia Tech	2-1
79	Marshall	2-1
80	Maryland	2-1
81	Toledo	2-1
82	Arkansas State	2-2
83	Buffalo	2-2
84	Troy	2-1
85	Temple	2-1
86	Louisville	2-2
87	San Jose State	2-1
88	New Mexico	2-1
89	East Carolina	2-2
90	Florida Atlantic	2-2
91	Illinois	2-2
92	Arkansas	2-2
93	Central Michigan	2-2
94	Charlotte	2-2
95	Georgia State	2-2
96	Northern Illinois	1-2
97	Georgia Southern	1-2
98	Miami (OH)	1-3
99	UTEP	1-2
100	Fresno State	1-2
101	UCLA	1-3
102	Texas State	1-3
103	Stanford	1-3
104	Oregon State	1-2
105	Old Dominion	1-2
106	South Florida	1-2
107	South Alabama	1-3
108	Georgia Tech	1-2
109	Western Kentucky	1-2
110	Rutgers	1-2
111	Purdue	1-2
112	Middle Tennessee	1-2
113	South Carolina	1-3
114	Houston	1-3
115	Bowling Green	1-3
116	Northwestern	1-2
117	UTSA	1-3
118	Ball State	1-3
119	UL Monroe	1-2
120	Tennessee	1-3
121	UConn	1-2
122	Ohio	1-3
123	Colorado State	1-3
124	UNLV	1-2
125	Florida International	1-3
126	Rice	0-4
127	Vanderbilt	0-3
128	New Mexico State	0-4
129	Akron	0-4
130	UMass	0-4

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech
Week 3 Auburn

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 3, Thursday

New England over Dallas

This year, if you count Thanksgiving, every team plays a Thursday game except Cincinnati and Miami, and leaving out Miami was either a wise or fortunate decision on the part of the NFL (side note, Dallas and Chicago play against each other on a Thursday and play on Thanksgiving, but not against each other). Ever since the NFL moved to having a Thursday game nearly every week, except non-turkey holidays and week 17, it seems Tennessee and Jacksonville have faced off almost every year. As it turns out, it's been 5 of the last 6. Not every matchup is a division rival, so I'm not sure why these two seem to go together so much. Either way, it's usually seen as whatever the opposite of a marquee game is. Gardner Minshew got his chance to be seen being successful on national TV, but the 20-7 win was a little low scoring in a league averaging over 43 points a game this year.

No huge changes in the grid since the AFC South wasn't well-represented near the top. Tennessee is no longer the favorite to win that division, with Indianapolis and Houston both now surpassing them, but no one's really looking at that this early.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	2-0	0.562	52.78	76.38	58.73	32.06	17.35	9.41
BAL	2-0	0.558	65.99	76.38	58.92	31.87	17.00	9.15
DAL	2-0	0.542	63.03	71.81	53.14	28.15	14.78	7.58
KC	2-0	0.546	55.09	70.64	52.73	27.74	14.39	7.56
SF	2-0	0.550	37.38	63.18	47.39	25.48	13.64	7.10
GB	2-0	0.539	46.52	63.74	47.66	25.06	13.06	6.65
BUF	2-0	0.533	40.98	66.48	47.28	24.05	12.22	6.27
LAR	2-0	0.537	33.04	59.87	43.67	22.78	11.86	6.02
SEA	2-0	0.506	22.76	45.82	30.73	14.96	7.28	3.47
DET	1-0-1	0.507	24.56	40.86	27.35	13.38	6.52	3.11
MIN	1-1	0.525	18.46	36.47	24.13	12.23	6.19	3.07
TEN	1-2	0.533	22.55	36.29	23.08	11.65	5.87	3.01
LAC	1-1	0.507	23.72	41.58	26.35	12.62	6.02	2.93
HOU	1-1	0.498	27.14	38.46	23.75	11.14	5.20	2.48
IND	1-1	0.492	30.11	40.71	24.69	11.40	5.25	2.48
PHI	1-1	0.502	25.39	35.73	22.06	10.67	5.15	2.43
TB	1-1	0.482	32.36	37.66	21.71	9.96	4.56	2.07
JAC	1-2	0.495	20.20	30.35	17.35	8.05	3.73	1.77
ATL	1-1	0.475	27.61	32.89	18.77	8.47	3.83	1.71
CLE	1-1	0.478	18.95	31.35	18.04	8.12	3.66	1.67
OAK	1-1	0.477	14.77	29.98	17.20	7.70	3.44	1.58
NO	1-1	0.471	26.28	31.12	17.47	7.82	3.49	1.54
CHI	1-1	0.479	10.46	22.23	13.27	6.11	2.81	1.27
ARI	0-1-1	0.488	6.82	19.31	11.47	5.37	2.52	1.16
CAR	0-2	0.482	13.75	17.43	9.45	4.34	1.99	0.90
DEN	0-2	0.475	6.41	13.81	7.56	3.36	1.50	0.68
CIN	0-2	0.460	8.10	15.70	8.34	3.59	1.55	0.68
WAS	0-2	0.476	6.02	11.68	6.41	2.93	1.34	0.60
PIT	0-2	0.450	6.96	12.84	6.54	2.75	1.17	0.50
NYG	0-2	0.451	5.56	10.19	5.33	2.30	0.99	0.42
NYJ	0-2	0.450	3.34	9.90	5.01	2.11	0.89	0.39
MIA	0-2	0.438	2.90	9.16	4.43	1.80	0.74	0.31

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 2, Final] New England over Dallas

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Final

New England over Dallas

Cleveland beat the New York Jets, and as expected that lowered Baltimore's divisional chances a little, and raised New England's a little, and that was enough to let New England supplant Baltimore atop the AFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	2-0	0.562	52.85	76.13	58.19	31.64	17.05	9.26
BAL	2-0	0.558	65.95	76.23	58.34	31.42	16.72	9.00
DAL	2-0	0.542	63.08	71.86	53.20	28.19	14.79	7.56
KC	2-0	0.546	54.77	70.15	51.85	27.20	14.07	7.39
SF	2-0	0.550	37.41	63.22	47.41	25.52	13.65	7.08
GB	2-0	0.539	46.53	63.71	47.61	25.04	13.04	6.62
BUF	2-0	0.534	40.84	66.18	46.74	23.69	11.99	6.15
LAR	2-0	0.537	33.05	59.88	43.65	22.79	11.87	6.01
TEN	1-1	0.546	37.25	53.22	36.52	18.95	9.78	5.14
SEA	2-0	0.506	22.73	45.78	30.71	14.92	7.26	3.45
DET	1-0-1	0.507	24.55	40.81	27.33	13.37	6.52	3.10
MIN	1-1	0.525	18.49	36.46	24.12	12.22	6.18	3.05
LAC	1-1	0.507	23.90	41.64	26.18	12.48	5.92	2.89
IND	1-1	0.492	28.30	40.59	24.45	11.26	5.17	2.44
PHI	1-1	0.502	25.38	35.72	22.04	10.67	5.15	2.42
HOU	1-1	0.498	25.04	37.58	23.02	10.75	5.01	2.39
TB	1-1	0.482	32.34	37.70	21.75	9.96	4.57	2.06
ATL	1-1	0.475	27.59	32.93	18.79	8.49	3.83	1.70
CLE	1-1	0.478	18.90	31.18	17.73	7.94	3.56	1.63
OAK	1-1	0.477	14.88	29.99	17.07	7.60	3.39	1.55
NO	1-1	0.471	26.30	31.18	17.51	7.83	3.49	1.53
CHI	1-1	0.479	10.44	22.15	13.21	6.07	2.80	1.26
ARI	0-1-1	0.488	6.80	19.29	11.46	5.37	2.53	1.16
CAR	0-2	0.482	13.77	17.49	9.49	4.34	2.00	0.90
JAC	0-2	0.472	9.41	15.82	8.33	3.64	1.60	0.72
CIN	0-2	0.460	8.21	15.78	8.31	3.56	1.53	0.67
DEN	0-2	0.475	6.45	13.80	7.49	3.32	1.48	0.67
WAS	0-2	0.476	5.99	11.65	6.38	2.92	1.34	0.60
PIT	0-2	0.450	6.94	12.73	6.43	2.69	1.13	0.49
NYG	0-2	0.451	5.55	10.18	5.33	2.30	0.99	0.42
NYJ	0-2	0.450	3.40	9.91	4.98	2.09	0.88	0.38
MIA	0-2	0.438	2.90	9.08	4.36	1.77	0.72	0.30

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2. Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Baltimore over Dallas

New England is by far the strongest team, but Baltimore's weaker division is keeping them just a little ahead in chances to win the AFC. Monday's game between division rivals of each team (Cleveland for Baltimore and New York Jets for New England) will certainly have an effect.

The team New England dominated 43-0, Miami, is now the worst in the league with the worst chances of winning the Super Bowl, but there are 8 teams below the 1% mark.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	2-0	0.558	69.47	77.35	58.91	31.68	16.85	9.07
NE	2-0	0.562	49.12	73.64	56.02	30.43	16.40	8.89
DAL	2-0	0.542	63.07	71.57	52.75	27.95	14.67	7.50
KC	2-0	0.546	54.98	69.99	51.89	27.18	14.05	7.39
SF	2-0	0.550	37.41	63.39	47.56	25.58	13.70	7.12
GB	2-0	0.539	46.57	63.83	47.77	25.13	13.09	6.65
BUF	2-0	0.534	38.99	64.75	45.78	23.20	11.74	6.03
LAR	2-0	0.537	33.05	60.06	43.82	22.86	11.90	6.02
TEN	1-1	0.546	37.38	52.88	36.38	18.87	9.72	5.11
SEA	2-0	0.506	22.74	45.99	30.85	15.01	7.30	3.47
DET	1-0-1	0.507	24.55	40.90	27.42	13.42	6.53	3.11
MIN	1-1	0.525	18.46	36.54	24.19	12.27	6.21	3.07
LAC	1-1	0.507	23.99	41.35	26.11	12.45	5.92	2.88
IND	1-1	0.492	28.36	40.33	24.37	11.21	5.14	2.42
PHI	1-1	0.502	25.38	35.35	21.74	10.51	5.08	2.39
HOU	1-1	0.498	25.12	37.37	22.96	10.73	5.00	2.38
TB	1-1	0.482	32.37	37.73	21.78	9.99	4.57	2.07
ATL	1-1	0.475	27.60	32.96	18.84	8.50	3.83	1.70
NYJ	0-1	0.497	9.36	25.46	14.82	6.90	3.23	1.54
NO	1-1	0.471	26.28	31.17	17.52	7.83	3.50	1.54
OAK	1-1	0.477	14.50	28.99	16.52	7.36	3.27	1.50
CHI	1-1	0.479	10.42	22.21	13.26	6.10	2.80	1.25
ARI	0-1-1	0.488	6.80	19.44	11.55	5.40	2.54	1.16
CLE	0-1	0.471	14.01	22.00	11.99	5.28	2.33	1.05
CAR	0-2	0.482	13.75	17.47	9.49	4.35	1.99	0.90
JAC	0-2	0.471	9.15	15.28	8.06	3.53	1.55	0.70
CIN	0-2	0.460	8.94	15.88	8.34	3.58	1.54	0.68
DEN	0-2	0.475	6.52	13.66	7.45	3.30	1.46	0.67
WAS	0-2	0.476	6.00	11.43	6.25	2.86	1.31	0.58
PIT	0-2	0.450	7.58	12.84	6.46	2.71	1.14	0.49
NYG	0-2	0.451	5.54	9.98	5.20	2.24	0.97	0.41
MIA	0-2	0.438	2.53	8.22	3.95	1.60	0.65	0.27

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay
[Week 2, Thursday] Baltimore over Green Bay

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

I should really implement something showing me how far each team rose and fell each week. That'd be fun early in the season. Texas Tech lost to fall from #1 all the way to #38, while Auburn rose to #1 from #9. LSU and SMU both fell 17 spots despite wins this week, from #2 and #3 to #19 and #20, because those wins were against 0-3 teams. The rankings are starting to get closer to the real world polls, though. I have to go all the way down to #23 San Diego State to find a team that didn't get at least one vote in the AP or Coaches top 25.

The number of undefeated teams is down to 35 this week.

Missouri took on Southeast Missouri State for an easy 50-0 win to pad their total, and have risen up to #30 for their efforts. They were the best 1-1 team last week, but are only the 5th best 2-1 team now.

1	Auburn	3-0
2	Arizona State	3-0
3	Ohio State	3-0
4	California	3-0
5	Utah	3-0
6	Oklahoma State	3-0
7	Clemson	3-0
8	Boise State	3-0
9	Kansas State	3-0
10	Virginia	3-0
11	Memphis	3-0
12	Florida	3-0
13	Iowa	3-0
14	Wake Forest	3-0
15	UCF	3-0
16	Wyoming	3-0
17	Minnesota	3-0
18	Alabama	3-0
19	LSU	3-0
20	SMU	3-0
21	Penn State	3-0
22	Georgia	3-0
23	San Diego State	3-0
24	Oklahoma	3-0
25	Washington State	3-0
26	West Virginia	2-1
27	Oregon	2-1
28	Eastern Michigan	2-1
29	Mississippi State	2-1
30	Missouri	2-1
31	Arizona	2-1
32	Kentucky	2-1
33	Michigan State	2-1
34	Western Michigan	2-1
35	Ole Miss	2-1
36	Notre Dame	2-0
37	Hawai'i	2-1
38	Texas Tech	2-1
39	TCU	2-0
40	Duke	2-1
41	BYU	2-1
42	Boston College	2-1
43	Kansas	2-1
44	Michigan	2-0
45	Coastal Carolina	2-1
46	Wisconsin	2-0
47	Washington	2-1
48	Colorado	2-1
49	Marshall	2-1
50	Nebraska	2-1
51	Air Force	2-0
52	Southern Mississippi	2-1
53	Appalachian State	2-0
54	North Carolina	2-1
55	Temple	2-0
56	Nevada	2-1
57	NC State	2-1
58	Navy	2-0
59	Texas A&M	2-1
60	Texas	2-1
61	Cincinnati	2-1
62	Virginia Tech	2-1
63	Georgia State	2-1
64	USC	2-1
65	Louisville	2-1
66	Arkansas	2-1
67	Maryland	2-1
68	UAB	2-0
69	Army	2-1
70	Illinois	2-1
71	Tulane	2-1
72	Baylor	2-0
73	Louisiana Tech	2-1
74	Central Michigan	2-1
75	Indiana	2-1
76	Louisiana	2-1
77	Charlotte	2-1
78	Kent State	1-2
79	Miami (OH)	1-2
80	Northern Illinois	1-2
81	Utah State	1-1
82	UTEP	1-1
83	Georgia Southern	1-2
84	Iowa State	1-1
85	Old Dominion	1-1
86	Miami	1-2
87	Florida State	1-2
88	North Texas	1-2
89	Florida Atlantic	1-2
90	Toledo	1-1
91	Tulsa	1-2
92	Pittsburgh	1-2
93	Stanford	1-2
94	Troy	1-1
95	New Mexico	1-1
96	Arkansas State	1-2
97	Georgia Tech	1-2
98	Oregon State	1-2
99	Houston	1-2
100	South Alabama	1-2
101	South Florida	1-2
102	Middle Tennessee	1-2
T-103	Western Kentucky	1-2
T-103	Syracuse	1-2
105	Tennessee	1-2
106	East Carolina	1-2
107	Rutgers	1-1
108	Purdue	1-2
109	Northwestern	1-1
T-110	UTSA	1-2
T-110	South Carolina	1-2
112	Bowling Green	1-2
113	UConn	1-1
114	Colorado State	1-2
115	UL Monroe	1-1
116	San Jose State	1-1
117	Ball State	1-2
118	Ohio	1-2
119	Liberty	1-2
120	Florida International	1-2
121	UNLV	1-2
122	Buffalo	1-2
123	New Mexico State	0-3
124	Fresno State	0-2
125	Texas State	0-3
126	UCLA	0-3
127	Rice	0-3
128	Vanderbilt	0-2
129	Akron	0-3
130	UMass	0-3

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie
Week 2 Texas Tech

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Baltimore over Green Bay

This is where I usually rant about how I hate this particular point in the season, because there are only 2 teams that have played 2 games, and often it means there's a mediocre 2-0 that looks way better than they should. This year, the result of the Thursday game put Tampa at 1-1 and squarely in the middle of the pack, with Carolina down to 0-2, yet still not worse than Chicago. Overall, the projection stays the same.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	49.77	60.97	44.12	23.08	12.05	6.32
TEN	1-0	0.530	47.25	60.01	43.56	22.76	11.84	6.18
NE	1-0	0.531	41.52	57.86	42.01	22.05	11.52	6.01
GB	1-0	0.530	36.90	53.22	38.14	20.03	10.50	5.44
DAL	1-0	0.525	40.55	54.27	38.42	19.96	10.33	5.30
MIN	1-0	0.527	35.05	52.16	37.17	19.38	10.11	5.22
SF	1-0	0.523	31.06	50.48	35.88	18.52	9.55	4.89
OAK	1-0	0.517	31.40	50.52	35.07	17.83	9.03	4.59
KC	1-0	0.518	29.65	49.15	34.11	17.38	8.84	4.51
LAC	1-0	0.510	29.28	48.66	33.38	16.74	8.37	4.21
NO	1-0	0.503	43.25	51.77	34.72	17.16	8.45	4.16
PHI	1-0	0.508	35.03	48.88	33.32	16.70	8.35	4.13
BUF	1-0	0.503	32.64	48.81	33.10	16.31	8.03	3.98
LAR	1-0	0.505	25.97	44.71	30.54	15.20	7.55	3.72
SEA	1-0	0.502	24.86	42.63	28.87	14.26	7.05	3.45
ARI	0-0-1	0.500	18.11	33.89	22.10	10.89	5.35	2.62
DET	0-0-1	0.500	19.60	32.96	21.32	10.50	5.17	2.53
CIN	0-1	0.498	20.51	30.73	19.14	9.32	4.53	2.22
TB	1-1	0.482	27.42	35.38	21.25	10.00	4.70	2.21
HOU	0-1	0.497	18.48	28.91	18.00	8.76	4.25	2.08
NYJ	0-1	0.497	14.32	26.49	16.37	7.94	3.86	1.88
IND	0-1	0.490	18.16	27.59	16.74	8.01	3.83	1.85
WAS	0-1	0.492	13.43	23.19	14.12	6.84	3.33	1.60
JAC	0-1	0.482	16.11	24.75	14.72	6.95	3.28	1.55
ATL	0-1	0.473	17.71	23.51	13.54	6.27	2.90	1.34
DEN	0-1	0.483	9.68	21.06	12.56	5.92	2.79	1.32
CLE	0-1	0.470	15.13	22.28	12.81	5.85	2.69	1.24
PIT	0-1	0.469	14.60	21.96	12.58	5.74	2.63	1.21
NYG	0-1	0.475	10.99	19.51	11.46	5.35	2.50	1.16
MIA	0-1	0.469	11.52	20.25	11.73	5.36	2.45	1.13
CAR	0-2	0.482	11.63	16.50	9.29	4.37	2.06	0.97
CHI	0-1	0.470	8.45	16.94	9.86	4.55	2.10	0.96

[Week 1] Baltimore over Green Bay

Super Bowl LIV Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over Green Bay


What's this? Here's a quick rundown originally taken from 2014's introductory post.

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

In week 1, the top teams are the ones with the biggest point differential, which could simply be a function of playing one very bad team. New England won 33-3. They might be the strongest team, or Pittsburgh might be the weakest team. Or both could be true. Pittsburgh avoids being lowest on the list because of a currently weak division, 1-3 in aggregate. Also, I only show 3 decimal places here, but with a few more New England has the higher strength by just a little bit over Baltimore, who won 59-10, and is the AFC favorite for now, just like in week 1 last year. Also like week 1 last year, we have a tie. I really don't like ties that much, because some of the other hastily coded numbers I output for my own use assume a whole number of wins and losses summing to 16. But, Arizona and Detroit have uglied the charts just like Cleveland and Pittsburgh last year.

Also, because I know you're going through my post history, you'll see that the week 1 leader always has a .530 or .531. Why is that? New England, to 5 decimal places, is .53121. The highest possible in my system after one week is .53125, which is 1/16 of the way from .500 to a perfect 1.000, and is achievable only by a shutout, but by any score by the winning team. That's because the strengths are regressed back to .500 a lot at the beginning of the year, so that something like a 3-0 win doesn't result in a team that appears completely dominant.

Anyway, things are mostly even as usual, with a few outliers. Chicago is the rare team that is below 1% likely to win after just the first week. It's not unprecedented, but it doesn't happen all that often. Buffalo 2018 and New York Giants 2017 were both listed at 0.97%, and they wound up 6-10 and 3-13, respectively. Don't hold out much hope for Chicago, is what I'm saying.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	1-0	0.531	49.81	61.02	44.14	23.13	12.08	6.31
TEN	1-0	0.530	47.22	59.89	43.45	22.70	11.82	6.14
NE	1-0	0.531	41.56	57.90	42.05	22.07	11.52	6.02
GB	1-0	0.530	36.72	53.01	37.92	19.89	10.43	5.40
DAL	1-0	0.525	40.61	54.29	38.45	19.95	10.34	5.30
MIN	1-0	0.527	35.07	52.19	37.19	19.40	10.10	5.22
SF	1-0	0.523	30.93	50.26	35.66	18.45	9.50	4.87
OAK	1-0	0.517	31.37	50.53	35.08	17.84	9.04	4.61
KC	1-0	0.518	29.71	49.22	34.17	17.42	8.87	4.51
LAC	1-0	0.510	29.26	48.68	33.43	16.72	8.36	4.19
PHI	1-0	0.508	35.09	48.94	33.35	16.68	8.34	4.14
NO	1-0	0.503	42.59	51.20	34.33	16.92	8.33	4.10
BUF	1-0	0.503	32.59	48.74	33.07	16.27	8.00	3.96
LAR	1-0	0.505	26.20	44.90	30.69	15.27	7.57	3.73
SEA	1-0	0.502	24.77	42.43	28.68	14.17	7.00	3.44
ARI	0-0-1	0.500	18.10	33.72	21.98	10.80	5.30	2.59
DET	0-0-1	0.500	19.73	33.11	21.38	10.52	5.19	2.53
CIN	0-1	0.498	20.45	30.73	19.13	9.30	4.52	2.20
HOU	0-1	0.497	18.48	28.83	17.97	8.72	4.25	2.07
CAR	0-1	0.495	21.73	28.77	17.44	8.46	4.10	1.99
NYJ	0-1	0.497	14.32	26.46	16.35	7.96	3.87	1.90
IND	0-1	0.490	18.19	27.56	16.71	8.00	3.83	1.85
WAS	0-1	0.492	13.32	23.05	14.03	6.78	3.28	1.58
JAC	0-1	0.482	16.11	24.69	14.65	6.89	3.25	1.55
TB	0-1	0.477	18.38	24.63	14.31	6.68	3.11	1.45
DEN	0-1	0.483	9.66	21.09	12.57	5.93	2.80	1.33
ATL	0-1	0.473	17.31	23.09	13.30	6.16	2.84	1.32
CLE	0-1	0.470	15.13	22.32	12.84	5.89	2.70	1.25
PIT	0-1	0.469	14.61	22.00	12.62	5.77	2.64	1.22
NYG	0-1	0.475	10.99	19.49	11.41	5.31	2.47	1.15
MIA	0-1	0.469	11.53	20.32	11.76	5.39	2.47	1.13
CHI	0-1	0.470	8.49	16.94	9.87	4.56	2.10	0.97

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

I'm a day late due to a Sunday game in Division II. In the future I'll just fold those games into the next week's rankings. But I didn't want to leave out the powerhouses of Florida Tech and Savannah State.

After just 2 weeks, we've got enough separation between each team that there are only a handful of ties in the 130-team field. Texas Tech is #1, but they have a very tenuous hold on the spot. The top 15 teams each have cumulative opponent records of 2-2, but Texas Tech's opponents have beaten slightly higher ranked teams. The wins and losses of the top teams' FCS opponents, and opponents' opponents, etc., can easily flip the ordering around early in the season, so Texas Tech has to be happy that Montana State beat Southeast Missouri State, who beat Southern Illinois, who beat UMass.

There are 52 undefeated teams remaining, mostly 2-0 but 8 teams are taking an early bye week sitting at 1-0.

I didn't mention Missouri last week, but I'm still watching them. They lost pretty unexpectedly to Wyoming to just destroy any illusions their fans had of a national title chance, but came back strong against West Virginia this week. I've got them at #46, the best 1-1 team around!

1	Texas Tech	2-0
2	LSU	2-0
3	SMU	2-0
4	Michigan State	2-0
5	Boise State	2-0
6	Boston College	2-0
7	Utah	2-0
8	Arizona State	2-0
9	Auburn	2-0
10	Michigan	2-0
11	Mississippi State	2-0
12	California	2-0
13	Colorado	2-0
14	Virginia	2-0
15	Iowa	2-0
16	Kentucky	2-0
17	Alabama	2-0
18	Hawai'i	2-0
19	Oklahoma	2-0
20	Clemson	2-0
21	Penn State	2-0
22	Appalachian State	2-0
23	Wyoming	2-0
24	Memphis	2-0
25	Kansas State	2-0
26	Baylor	2-0
27	Wake Forest	2-0
T-28	Minnesota	2-0
T-28	USC	2-0
30	Oklahoma State	2-0
31	UAB	2-0
32	Ohio State	2-0
33	Illinois	2-0
34	Florida	2-0
35	Maryland	2-0
36	NC State	2-0
37	North Carolina	2-0
38	UCF	2-0
39	Wisconsin	2-0
40	San Diego State	2-0
41	Georgia	2-0
42	Georgia State	2-0
43	Indiana	2-0
44	Washington State	2-0
45	TCU	1-0
46	Missouri	1-1
47	Notre Dame	1-0
48	Georgia Southern	1-1
49	Virginia Tech	1-1
50	Northern Illinois	1-1
51	Oregon	1-1
52	Duke	1-1
53	Eastern Michigan	1-1
54	Ole Miss	1-1
T-55	Navy	1-0
T-55	New Mexico	1-0
T-55	Troy	1-0
58	UTEP	1-1
59	North Texas	1-1
60	Marshall	1-1
61	West Virginia	1-1
62	Kent State	1-1
63	Tulsa	1-1
64	Iowa State	1-0
65	Southern Mississippi	1-1
66	Western Michigan	1-1
67	Texas	1-1
T-68	Washington	1-1
T-68	Arkansas State	1-1
70	Middle Tennessee	1-1
71	Florida State	1-1
72	Pittsburgh	1-1
73	Arizona	1-1
74	Miami (OH)	1-1
75	Nebraska	1-1
76	Houston	1-1
77	UTSA	1-1
78	Utah State	1-1
79	Central Michigan	1-1
80	Louisville	1-1
81	Old Dominion	1-1
T-82	Nevada	1-1
T-82	Arkansas	1-1
84	Coastal Carolina	1-1
85	Army	1-1
86	Air Force	1-0
87	Bowling Green	1-1
88	Texas A&M	1-1
89	BYU	1-1
90	Stanford	1-1
91	Georgia Tech	1-1
92	Tulane	1-1
93	Temple	1-0
94	Louisiana	1-1
95	Colorado State	1-1
96	Cincinnati	1-1
97	Buffalo	1-1
98	Western Kentucky	1-1
99	Rutgers	1-1
100	Charlotte	1-1
101	UConn	1-1
102	Ball State	1-1
103	Syracuse	1-1
104	East Carolina	1-1
105	South Carolina	1-1
106	San Jose State	1-1
107	Ohio	1-1
108	South Alabama	1-1
T-109	UNLV	1-1
T-109	Louisiana Tech	1-1
111	UL Monroe	1-1
112	Purdue	1-1
113	Kansas	1-1
114	Toledo	0-1
115	Oregon State	0-2
116	Fresno State	0-2
T-117	Akron	0-2
T-117	New Mexico State	0-2
119	Florida Atlantic	0-2
120	Miami	0-2
121	Northwestern	0-1
122	Rice	0-2
123	Texas State	0-2
124	South Florida	0-2
125	Tennessee	0-2
126	UCLA	0-2
127	Vanderbilt	0-2
128	Florida International	0-2
129	Liberty	0-2
130	UMass	0-2

2019 History and #1s
Week 1 83-way tie

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

College football is back! Week 1 is done, and here's my lazy copy-and-paste job of what I'm doing here.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

I listed some caveats at the end there, but despite 4 teams playing over a week ago, all the FBS teams have played exactly 1 game after week 1. Last year had 129 teams, with Liberty in the midst of transitioning to full eligibility. They are there now, and we've got 130 teams. I think some rules may have changed this year, though I haven't been able to find confirmation, because the only Division II or III games were ones against FCS teams, which was only 8 total games, so they are mostly all starting next week.

Onto the fairly pointless rankings of Week 1. I want to point out that the ordering here is not significant; Florida is exactly tied with all 82 other #1 teams. Air Force is lowest ranked 1-0 team at #84 because they beat Samford, one of the two teams that has actually played 2 games, and happens to be 0-2.

1	Florida	1-0
1	Hawai'i	1-0
1	Clemson	1-0
1	Texas A&M	1-0
1	Utah	1-0
1	UCF	1-0
1	Cincinnati	1-0
1	UConn	1-0
1	Bowling Green	1-0
1	Buffalo	1-0
1	Charlotte	1-0
1	Tulane	1-0
1	UAB	1-0
1	Central Michigan	1-0
1	Minnesota	1-0
1	Arizona State	1-0
1	San Jose State	1-0
1	Michigan State	1-0
1	Wisconsin	1-0
1	Army	1-0
1	Rutgers	1-0
1	Wake Forest	1-0
1	Nevada	1-0
1	Colorado	1-0
1	Oklahoma State	1-0
1	Alabama	1-0
1	Georgia	1-0
1	Ohio State	1-0
1	LSU	1-0
1	Michigan	1-0
1	Texas	1-0
1	Auburn	1-0
1	Washington	1-0
1	Penn State	1-0
1	Iowa	1-0
1	Iowa State	1-0
1	Syracuse	1-0
1	Washington State	1-0
1	Nebraska	1-0
1	Stanford	1-0
1	Illinois	1-0
1	Indiana	1-0
1	Boise State	1-0
1	NC State	1-0
1	Kansas	1-0
1	Kentucky	1-0
1	Memphis	1-0
1	Mississippi State	1-0
1	Maryland	1-0
1	West Virginia	1-0
1	Ohio	1-0
1	Temple	1-0
1	Navy	1-0
1	Eastern Michigan	1-0
1	North Carolina	1-0
1	Georgia State	1-0
1	Appalachian State	1-0
1	Arkansas	1-0
1	Texas Tech	1-0
1	Boston College	1-0
1	New Mexico	1-0
1	UTSA	1-0
1	Troy	1-0
1	California	1-0
1	Marshall	1-0
1	Old Dominion	1-0
1	Southern Mississippi	1-0
1	Northern Illinois	1-0
1	Western Michigan	1-0
1	SMU	1-0
1	Kansas State	1-0
1	Baylor	1-0
1	Wyoming	1-0
1	Virginia	1-0
1	North Texas	1-0
1	UTEP	1-0
1	TCU	1-0
1	UL Monroe	1-0
1	San Diego State	1-0
1	UNLV	1-0
1	USC	1-0
1	Oklahoma	1-0
1	Notre Dame	1-0
84	Air Force	1-0
85	Miami	0-1
85	Arizona	0-1
85	Georgia Tech	0-1
85	Texas State	0-1
85	BYU	0-1
85	UCLA	0-1
85	Western Kentucky	0-1
85	Florida International	0-1
85	Kent State	0-1
85	Tulsa	0-1
85	South Florida	0-1
85	Rice	0-1
85	UMass	0-1
85	Utah State	0-1
85	Purdue	0-1
85	Colorado State	0-1
85	Oregon State	0-1
85	Duke	0-1
85	Vanderbilt	0-1
85	Florida Atlantic	0-1
85	Georgia Southern	0-1
85	Middle Tennessee	0-1
85	Louisiana Tech	0-1
85	Oregon	0-1
85	Miami (OH)	0-1
85	Liberty	0-1
85	New Mexico State	0-1
85	South Alabama	0-1
85	Northwestern	0-1
85	Akron	0-1
85	Ball State	0-1
85	Florida State	0-1
85	East Carolina	0-1
85	Toledo	0-1
85	Ole Miss	0-1
85	Louisiana	0-1
85	Coastal Carolina	0-1
85	South Carolina	0-1
85	Tennessee	0-1
85	Virginia Tech	0-1
85	Arkansas State	0-1
85	Missouri	0-1
85	Pittsburgh	0-1
85	Fresno State	0-1
85	Houston	0-1
85	Louisville	0-1