2012-11-30

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 13, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

Toward the end of the season, there's not much movement from a single game, especially if it's intradivision or intraconference. Last night's NFC South matchup solidified Atlanta's lead and eliminated New Orleans from the division. Tampa Bay is still in it, but would have to win via tiebreaker.

Kansas City remains the only team eliminated from the playoffs entirely. And don't worry, Chicago, the Rams will take down San Francisco this week to put you back atop the NFC. After all, if we can tie them in San Francisco, we can beat them at home, right?

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-2-10.74098.05499.70588.25752.98331.90118.317
NE8-30.72298.63099.67680.24947.04926.86514.529
CHI8-30.70576.38997.41174.17338.24520.95111.131
HOU10-10.69898.673100.00098.22058.99031.34616.060
DEN8-30.67199.99399.99577.53938.98519.3099.292
ATL11-10.67099.79099.99997.22453.65424.78712.158
NYG7-40.64584.20091.31153.87123.75410.7474.981
BAL9-20.62695.82999.88579.05534.56415.2996.627
TB6-50.6000.21038.30116.4696.6542.6951.123
SEA6-50.5851.91649.43921.2988.3493.2521.309
CIN6-50.5672.05449.38019.3507.1072.8211.059
GB7-40.55521.02272.34930.92810.8813.9611.481
PIT6-50.5492.11747.67517.8376.2422.3680.847
WAS5-60.51810.23819.9167.4902.4340.7940.269
SD4-70.5170.00712.8134.3241.3910.4910.162
MIN6-50.4982.59017.1945.7701.7770.5550.179
NO5-70.490-3.1760.9930.3060.0930.029
DET4-70.476-0.4930.1530.0440.0130.004
MIA5-60.4651.3646.1561.9310.5490.1680.048
DAL5-60.4595.5349.3943.0690.8470.2350.068
CLE3-80.414-0.3740.0910.0220.0060.001
IND7-40.4131.32777.33719.9964.8201.2650.310
CAR3-80.393-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
STL4-6-10.3930.0291.1410.2650.0620.0140.003
ARI4-70.3850.0010.1360.0320.0070.0020.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.6120.7800.1590.0360.008
BUF4-70.3670.0031.3150.2840.0580.0130.003
TEN4-70.338-1.7060.3330.0620.0130.002
PHI3-80.3060.0280.0310.0070.0010.0000.000
OAK3-80.285-0.0730.0110.0020.0000.000
JAC2-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-100.247------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]

2012-11-27

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Nothing much changes on a night when a 2-7 team takes on a 3-7 team, and the result is 2 3-8 teams. Philadelphia isn't quite eliminated from the NFC East, but their chances are getting ever-slimmer.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-2-10.74098.05599.69388.85754.15633.03418.967
NE8-30.72298.63199.67680.24947.05026.86814.644
CHI8-30.70576.38997.26775.46540.21122.11611.751
HOU10-10.69898.675100.00098.22158.99831.34916.197
DEN8-30.67199.99399.99577.54438.98319.3069.377
ATL10-10.64998.91599.92493.55248.62621.47710.036
NYG7-40.64584.39891.15554.68824.69611.2825.227
BAL9-20.62695.83099.88579.05534.56415.2986.694
TB6-50.6001.05137.46016.3196.6912.7471.145
SEA6-50.5851.91447.20820.4708.2063.2401.304
CIN6-50.5672.05449.38319.3527.1072.8211.071
GB7-40.55521.02471.89331.28211.2834.1551.553
PIT6-50.5492.11647.67617.8356.2402.3660.857
WAS5-60.51810.18919.5237.4102.4640.8150.277
SD4-70.5170.00712.8174.3251.3910.4900.164
NO5-60.5070.0348.6852.9610.9480.3100.102
MIN6-50.4982.58716.4545.5811.7610.5580.180
DET4-70.476-0.4700.1470.0430.0130.004
MIA5-60.4651.3636.1511.9300.5490.1680.049
DAL5-60.4595.3849.0782.9890.8460.2380.069
CLE3-80.414-0.3740.0910.0210.0060.001
IND7-40.4131.32577.33719.9904.8161.2650.315
CAR3-80.393-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
STL4-6-10.3930.0291.0400.2440.0590.0140.003
ARI4-70.3850.0010.1180.0280.0070.0020.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.6110.7800.1580.0370.008
BUF4-70.3670.0031.3140.2840.0580.0130.003
TEN4-70.338-1.7050.3320.0610.0130.002
PHI3-80.3060.0280.0300.0070.0010.0000.000
OAK3-80.285-0.0730.0110.0020.0000.000
JAC2-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-100.247------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]

2012-11-26

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Houston fell down another spot, but is still the most likely AFC Champ. They may be coasting a bit now, knowing a first round bye is easily in reach.

There are two more division eliminations this week. First up is Tennessee. Obviously with 7 losses they can't catch the 10-win Texans. Oakland is also eliminated. The best they can do is to tie Denver, leaving them 1-1 against Denver, 4-2 in the division, the same as Denver, but with a worse common game percentage.

Kansas City is the first team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs altogether. It would be hard to enumerate all the scenarios to prove it, but I did run a number of simulations with KC going 6-10, and in every one they failed to win a wildcard spot.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF8-2-10.74098.05399.69588.84854.13233.02918.966
NE8-30.72298.63099.67880.25347.05526.87114.645
CHI8-30.70576.38997.27175.44240.17522.10711.746
HOU10-10.69898.674100.00098.22258.99731.35216.197
DEN8-30.67199.99399.99577.54238.98219.3049.377
ATL10-10.64998.96499.92993.68848.73421.51510.055
NYG7-40.64584.32491.03454.56524.64011.2575.216
BAL9-20.62695.86299.88779.06034.56415.2966.694
TB6-50.6001.00337.19716.2016.6482.7301.138
SEA6-50.5851.91647.21620.4798.2143.2431.305
CIN6-50.5672.02849.11419.2477.0682.8061.065
GB7-40.55521.02371.95231.31311.2954.1601.555
PIT6-50.5492.11047.72517.8516.2472.3670.858
WAS5-60.51810.16519.4107.3732.4540.8120.276
SD4-70.5170.00713.0854.4181.4220.5020.168
NO5-60.5070.0338.9493.0510.9780.3200.106
MIN6-50.4982.58816.5095.6021.7700.5610.181
DET4-70.476-0.4790.1500.0440.0130.004
MIA5-60.4651.3636.1471.9290.5490.1680.049
DAL5-60.4595.3679.0152.9710.8420.2370.069
CLE3-80.414-0.3780.0920.0220.0060.001
IND7-40.4131.32677.27919.9764.8141.2650.314
STL4-6-10.3930.0291.0480.2460.0600.0140.003
ARI4-70.3850.0010.1200.0290.0070.0020.000
CAR2-80.377-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.6200.7820.1590.0370.008
BUF4-70.3670.0031.3110.2830.0580.0130.003
TEN4-70.338-1.7040.3320.0620.0130.002
PHI3-70.3190.1440.1760.0410.0070.0010.000
OAK3-80.285-0.0760.0120.0020.0000.000
JAC2-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-100.247------

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Kansas City (Week 12, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]

2012-11-25

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

The regular season is over in the large conferences, to be followed by conference championships and then bowl season. Notre Dame, devoid of a conference, is finished, and should be solid at #1 because none of Ohio State, Florida, or Oregon will be playing in their respective conference title games, nor would Ohio State be allowed in the big game anyway. Alabama and Georgia are probably playing a Semifinal in the SEC Championship, but my ranks may not put the winner at #2 (or #3 given the Ohio State situation).

Who's the worst bowl eligible team? That would be #80 Air Force.

Who's the best ineligible? Well, Ohio State of course, but based purely on record, it's #72, my very own Missouri Tigers, with a strong SEC schedule but a 5-7 record.

Finally, I think Southern Miss should play the Division 1-AA (FCS) Champion for the right to be in the FBS next year.

1Notre Dame12-0
2Ohio State12-0
3Florida11-1
4Oregon11-1
5Georgia11-1
6Alabama11-1
7Texas A&M10-2
8Stanford10-2
9South Carolina10-2
10LSU10-2
11Kansas State10-1
12Kent State11-1
13Nebraska10-2
14Clemson10-2
15Northern Illinois11-1
16San Jose State10-2
17Florida State10-2
18Oklahoma9-2
19Utah State10-2
20UCLA9-3
21Toledo9-3
22Ball State9-3
23Northwestern9-3
24Rutgers9-2
25Oregon State8-3
26San Diego State9-3
27Louisville9-2
28Fresno State9-3
29Cincinnati8-3
30Michigan8-4
31Boise State9-2
32Texas8-3
33Louisiana Tech9-3
34Penn State8-4
35Tulsa9-3
36UCF9-3
37Mississippi State8-4
38Vanderbilt8-4
39Arkansas State8-3
40Arizona7-5
41North Carolina8-4
42Middle Tennessee8-3
43Syracuse7-5
44Oklahoma State7-4
45Miami (FL)7-5
46USC7-5
47East Carolina8-4
48Wisconsin7-5
49Washington7-5
50Louisiana-Monroe8-4
51TCU7-4
52Texas Tech7-5
53Bowling Green8-4
54Ohio8-4
55Arizona State7-5
56Navy7-4
57Baylor6-5
58West Virginia6-5
59North Carolina State7-5
60Louisiana-Lafayette7-4
61Michigan State6-6
62Brigham Young7-5
63Ole Miss6-6
64Iowa State6-6
65Western Kentucky7-5
66Duke6-6
67Virginia Tech6-6
68Purdue6-6
69Nevada7-4
70Minnesota6-6
71Georgia Tech6-6
72Missouri5-7
73Pittsburgh5-6
74Southern Methodist6-6
75Central Michigan6-6
76Utah5-7
77Tennessee5-7
78Rice6-6
79Wake Forest5-7
80Air Force6-6
81Arkansas4-8
82Connecticut5-6
83Iowa4-8
84Troy5-7
85Virginia4-8
86Houston5-7
87Marshall5-7
88Temple4-7
89Indiana4-8
90Miami (OH)4-8
91Buffalo4-8
92Wyoming4-8
93South Florida3-8
94Auburn3-9
95North Texas4-8
96California3-9
97Colorado State4-8
98Maryland4-8
99Western Michigan4-8
100Memphis4-8
101Washington State3-9
102Florida Atlantic3-8
103Kentucky2-10
104New Mexico4-9
105Florida International3-9
106UAB3-9
107UTEP3-9
108Eastern Michigan2-10
109Illinois2-10
110Army2-9
111Boston College2-10
112Kansas1-10
113Hawaii2-9
114Tulane2-10
115Colorado1-11
116UNLV2-11
117Idaho1-11
118New Mexico State1-10
119Akron1-11
120Southern Miss0-12

2012 History

2012-11-24

2012 Gypsy Queen Extreme Value Blaster

I recently picked up a blaster of Gypsy Queen at Target for $11.99. Normally these are $19.99, a little more than I can convince myself to pay for the 48 cards inside. But, for a quarter a card, I went for it. I've decided this set isn't old enough for a pack-by-pack breakdown, so here are the inserts and Cardinals.

2012 Gypsy Queen
#201 Allen Craig
#208 Adron Chambers
 Each pack has 1 mini card, and here's how those broke down.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Parallel
#21 Mat Latos
#158 Rickie Weeks
#177 Nick Markakis
#183 Heath Bell
These are stated at 1:1, but they can be replaced by rarer mini parallels.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Straight Cut Back
#69 Troy Tulowitzki
#115 Kurt Suzuki
I really should have scanned the backs since that's the only difference, but these Straight Cut Backs are inserted 1:6 packs.
2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Gypsy Queen Back
#261 John Smoltz
Again, I really should have scanned the back. This Gypsy Queen back is also inserted 1:6 packs. And I'm still referring to him as Former Cardinal John Smoltz.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Mini Black Border
#305 Matt Cain
Since the black minis are inserted 1:12 packs, and this has a high number, I figured I had something rare with this one, but apparently the minis 301-350 are not short-printed this year. Still, a cool card of a guy who just won a World Series, and really did a number on my Cardinals in the process.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Future Stars
#FS-JH Jeremy Hellickson
#FS-JU Justin Upton
Future Stars is an interesting name for a set featuring a 2-time All-Star. It's much better than the Bowman gamble on guys that may be no-names in a few years.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Hallmark Heroes
#HH-MM Mickey Mantle
#HH-SM Stan Musial
That's a pretty good pair, Mantle and Musial, especially for a Cardinal fan such as myself.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Sliding Stars
#SS-DG Dee Gordon
#SS-JW Jemile Weeks
Feet first, guys. You'll eat much less dirt that way.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Moonshots
#MS-AP Albert Pujols
Oh, Albert. That Angels uniform still doesn't look right on you.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Glove Stories
#GS-DJ Derek Jeter
This card features the ridiculous play Jeter made against the A's, in which he flipped the ball and it seemed to make a left turn mid-air to get Jeremy Giambi at the plate.

2012 Gypsy Queen - Blue Framed Parallel
#80 Ryan Braun #015/599
Finally, a nice parallel carried over from last year, the framed parallel. Last year was green, and this year's is Blue, and numbered to 599. But mostly I like how cool it looks and feels. I'd like to pick up a few Cardinals from this subset, so if you have any and would like this Braun, drop me an e-mail.

2012-11-23

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 12, Thursday

San Francisco over Houston

New England pushed closer to the top in team strength last night by clobbering the Jets, but Houston is a full 2 games ahead and very likely to get a first round bye, giving them a statistical edge in making the Superbowl. Note that the 100.000 shown as Houston's playoff odds is rounded up from 99.9995 or more. A clinched position will show with a plus sign (+).

Detroit played yesterday, and it seems wrong that they can be eliminated from winning their division at 4-7, with their division rivals at 7-3, 7-3, and 6-4. Surely they could still go 9-7 and win, right? As it turns out, the NFC North has a lot of intra-divison games left. Chicago and Green Bay each have 2 games against Minnesota, 1 game against Detroit, and 1 game against each other left to play. All that adds up to at least one of those teams finishing 9-7, and beating Detroit in a Tiebreaker.

It all sounds nicely wrapped up, except for the possibility of a tie. As you can see below, we've already had one this year. My software doesn't simulate ties, it always picks a winner in simulations. Actually, if at least one NFC North game ends in a tie, Detroit could win the division. My favorite example would be the Green Bay-Minnesota game in Week 17. If the other NFC Wildcards are 10-win teams, a situation could arise where the winner of that game wins the NFC North, and the loser goes home, but in case of a tie, Detroit wins and both teams go home. It's an extreme long shot, but it'd be interesting to see the strategy employed in overtime if it got down to 5 minutes or so left to play. That might even become the last tie ever in the NFL, as the ensuing outrage would mean something would be done.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF7-2-10.72589.59697.28684.17852.12631.74017.736
NE8-30.72299.36199.82482.57349.89428.73916.392
HOU10-10.69999.235100.00098.68460.63432.51817.630
CHI7-30.67245.40983.77259.91831.13516.2678.084
DEN7-30.65199.75199.89174.22935.37616.8458.233
ATL9-10.64691.88298.44189.72347.21822.35510.461
BAL8-20.61687.43298.97975.33932.25914.1136.376
GB7-30.60845.30579.38949.67021.8059.7214.169
TB6-40.6007.65143.71022.2729.6664.2181.774
NYG6-40.59669.54773.54737.95016.1306.9312.890
SEA6-40.59410.32155.65429.25312.5475.4182.247
PIT6-40.56210.87872.08330.21110.9964.3201.719
MIN6-40.5359.28521.4019.4633.4291.2970.465
NO5-50.5230.46811.2144.4601.6050.5880.205
SD4-60.5230.23424.2738.8062.8601.0320.373
CIN5-50.5211.69031.75011.5583.7431.3440.485
WAS5-60.51818.73421.8608.5722.9981.0640.365
DET4-70.475-0.1870.0640.0200.0060.002
DAL5-60.45911.27812.2404.1371.2370.3740.110
MIA4-60.4570.5942.7670.8660.2420.0740.023
ARI4-60.4150.0660.7140.2060.0570.0160.004
IND6-40.4030.76351.22113.4033.1130.8060.210
CLE2-80.403-0.1590.0390.0090.0020.001
BUF4-60.3830.0428.3811.9940.4280.1060.026
CAR2-80.376-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ4-70.3670.0033.9980.8970.1810.0420.010
STL3-6-10.3640.0160.1400.0330.0080.0020.000
TEN4-60.3490.0015.8561.2440.2390.0530.011
OAK3-70.3200.0150.8160.1560.0270.0050.001
PHI3-70.3180.4410.4470.0990.0190.0040.001
JAC1-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.000-
KC1-90.2700.0000.0000.0000.000--

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 12, Thursday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]

2012-11-22

Thanksgiving, 2012

I feel like I usually see lots of Turkey Red on blogs on Thanksgiving, and I didn't today, so here's one, because who doesn't love puns? Among my Turkey Red cards, I couldn't find a Tom, Bird, or even a Green (beans), so how about a Sisler? Sizzler? C'mon, that's comedy gold. My turkey won't be sizzling this year though, since I haven't yet convinced my Father-in-law to deep fry one, exactly the type of dangerous antics he's known for. But, I think I'm close. Maybe next year.
2010 Topps - Turkey Red #TR92 George Sisler
Happy Thanksgiving to all.

2012-11-20

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Last night's game had the 2nd best team in the NFC hosting the best, and the 49ers pulled off a big win to swap places and put themselves in the #1 position. San Francisco has also become the overall Super Bowl favorite, edging out Houston by tenths of a percent. The Rams odds were reduced even more than they were after their Sunday loss, since Chicago was supposed to win this game and keep them a game closer to San Francisco, but instead they are 4 games behind with 6 to play.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF7-2-10.72590.00097.39784.72652.58032.02918.416
HOU9-10.69598.82499.99398.04560.26833.53118.045
NE7-30.68897.81199.01077.12443.11123.37412.406
CHI7-30.67245.37483.51959.86631.11716.2568.341
DEN7-30.65199.76599.89476.39538.42118.8249.197
ATL9-10.64591.83998.38189.57647.27722.37510.834
BAL8-20.61687.68798.99476.67434.80615.6257.060
GB7-30.60845.23378.86649.44321.7289.6864.307
TB6-40.6007.69842.68421.8949.4994.1481.812
NYG6-40.59664.51170.75236.75715.6186.7142.906
SEA6-40.5949.92855.05829.12712.4785.3932.322
PIT6-40.56210.66971.83630.94511.6814.7671.896
MIN6-40.5359.38021.4249.5143.4471.3060.488
NO5-50.5230.46411.0144.4161.5870.5810.211
SD4-60.5230.22022.6738.4712.8401.0680.386
CIN5-50.5211.64430.52711.4633.8391.4350.517
WAS4-60.50610.88212.6464.8221.6330.5610.195
DET4-60.4810.0130.6390.2290.0720.0240.008
DAL5-50.47224.19626.4519.3222.8890.9080.288
MIA4-60.4571.1803.3691.1580.3330.1060.032
NYJ4-60.4190.85010.0482.8710.7180.2060.056
ARI4-60.4160.0560.6200.1810.0500.0140.004
IND6-40.4031.16849.90513.6073.2930.8920.232
CLE2-80.403-0.1600.0410.0100.0030.001
BUF4-60.3830.1597.4671.8630.4150.1070.026
CAR2-80.377-0.0000.0000.0000.000-
STL3-6-10.3650.0160.1310.0310.0070.0020.000
TEN4-60.3490.0085.3561.1900.2380.0550.012
OAK3-70.3200.0150.7660.1540.0270.0060.001
PHI3-70.3190.4110.4170.0930.0180.0030.001
JAC1-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-90.2710.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]

2012-11-19

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Chicago over Houston

Houston beat Jacksonville, and all my figuring is moot. Jacksonville is officially eliminated from the AFC South. So, I'll address a few other divisions.

AFC West
Kansas City has 2 games remaining against Denver, and so could finish 7-9 and win the division as long as Denver finishes 0-6, and San Diego and Oakland cooperate.

NFC South
Carolina is eliminated outright; Atlanta has 9 wins and Carolina will have at most 8.

AFC North
This one takes a few tiebreakers to figure out. My numbers show Cleveland eliminated, but is that really the case? Let's assume Cleveland finishes 6-0, and Baltimore finishes 0-6, tying them at 8-8. Baltimore has already beaten Cleveland twice, so that's no good. The Browns will need another team to tie with them and hope for a Rock-Paper-Scissors scenario that eliminates Baltimore and allows Cleveland to eliminate the other team in the tiebreaker.

Scenario A: Pittsburgh 8-8, Cincinnati worse than 8-8
Pittsburgh is 6-4, and the addition of the Baltimore and Cleveland games will make them 7-6, but more important to the scenario, they'll be 1-1 against Baltimore and 0-2 against Cleveland. Baltimore will be 1-1 and 2-0 against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and Cleveland will be 2-0 and 0-2. So Baltimore wins that scenario 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario B: Cincinnati 8-8, Pittsburgh worse than 8-8
Baltimore's Head to Head record is 2-0 and 1-1
Cleveland's is 0-2 and 1-1
Cincinnati's is 1-1 and 1-1.
Again, Baltimore wins 3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3.

Scenario C: Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by CIN
Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 2-4.
Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 1-1 against Pittsburgh, in total 3-3.
Baltimore wins again, nice and easy.

Scenario D: Cleveland and Pittsburgh both 8-8, remaining CIN-PIT game won by PIT
Baltimore is 2-0 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 4-2.
Cleveland is 0-2 against Baltimore, 2-0 against Pittsburgh, and 1-1 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Pittsburgh is 0-2 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 2-0 against Cincinnati, in total 3-3.
Cincinnati is 1-1 against Cleveland, 1-1 against Baltimore, and 0-2 against Pittsburgh, in total 2-4.
Again, it's all Baltimore.

So with all that, Cleveland really is eliminated from the division.

Of course, no team has yet been eliminated from the playoffs, as wildcards can let lesser teams in. One final note, Carolina did not win the Superbowl in any of my 500 million simulations, despite winning the NFC in at least some of them.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CHI7-20.70161.40991.99475.97944.60025.70514.057
HOU9-10.69598.82699.99398.01260.25533.51118.374
NE7-30.68897.87299.06077.54643.43123.53412.728
SF6-2-10.68378.60989.80267.03236.95420.27710.662
DEN7-30.65199.76599.89476.15238.22718.7369.342
ATL9-10.64591.81098.46590.93147.87523.37611.316
BAL8-20.61687.68798.99376.57134.72215.5887.195
GB7-30.60832.72577.76548.75521.8339.9274.413
TB6-40.6007.68243.39522.5769.9244.4351.936
NYG6-40.59664.50970.56836.76015.9817.0093.033
SEA6-40.59421.07056.26930.03213.1345.7982.497
PIT6-40.56210.66871.78130.91311.6604.7571.936
MIN6-40.5355.85919.1218.6343.2561.2610.471
NO5-50.5230.50811.5844.7171.7070.6400.232
SD4-60.5230.22022.6528.4632.8361.0660.395
CIN5-50.5211.64430.47011.4413.8301.4310.528
WAS4-60.50610.88512.6074.7631.6480.5810.201
DET4-60.4810.0070.5730.2020.0650.0220.007
DAL5-50.47224.19526.5319.2662.9350.9470.301
MIA4-60.4571.1853.5651.2160.3490.1110.035
NYJ4-60.4190.79610.0102.8520.7120.2050.057
ARI4-60.4160.2530.7180.2130.0590.0170.005
IND6-40.4031.16649.85913.5953.2900.8910.238
CLE2-80.403-0.1590.0410.0100.0030.001
BUF4-60.3830.1477.4541.8580.4140.1060.027
CAR2-80.377-0.0000.0000.0000.000-
STL3-6-10.3650.0680.1910.0480.0110.0030.001
TEN4-60.3490.0085.3461.1860.2370.0550.012
OAK3-70.3200.0150.7630.1530.0270.0060.001
PHI3-70.3190.4110.4160.0910.0180.0040.001
JAC1-90.284-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
KC1-90.2700.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)
First to 99.99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 11, Sunday)


[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]

2012-11-18

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

Wow. Most of the college football world certainly wept last night, as Oregon and Kansas State likely cleared the way for the SEC to make their way to the BCS Championship again. The SEC winner will be either #4 Alabama, #7 Georgia, #9 Texas A&M, or #10 LSU, but the ultimate winner will likely be a team that wins next week, and then gets a computer-rankings boost by playing an extra game - the SEC Championship - against a highly ranked opponent.

0-11 Southern Miss plays Memphis next week for a shot at the undisputed #120 rank (or #118 if you want to say Ohio State and Penn State get the #119/#120 slots). They'll probably have to lose to get it, as Akron plays a respectable Toledo team and looks destined for a 1-11 record.

1Notre Dame11-0
2Ohio State11-0
3Florida10-1
4Alabama10-1
5Oregon10-1
6Kansas State10-1
7Georgia10-1
8Clemson10-1
9Texas A&M9-2
10LSU9-2
11Florida State10-1
12Stanford9-2
13Nebraska9-2
14South Carolina9-2
15Kent State10-1
16Northern Illinois10-1
17Rutgers9-1
18UCLA9-2
19San Jose State9-2
20Utah State9-2
21Oregon State8-2
22Louisville9-1
23Oklahoma8-2
24Texas8-2
25Michigan8-3
26Tulsa9-2
27Toledo8-3
28Louisiana Tech9-2
29Boise State9-2
30Ball State8-3
31Mississippi State8-3
32Northwestern8-3
33Arizona7-4
34San Diego State8-3
35Arkansas State8-3
36Fresno State8-3
37Washington7-4
38Cincinnati7-3
39Oklahoma State7-3
40Wisconsin7-4
41USC7-4
42UCF8-3
43Penn State7-4
44Texas Tech7-4
45Ohio8-3
46Vanderbilt7-4
47North Carolina7-4
48Navy7-4
49Middle Tennessee7-3
50Syracuse6-5
51Miami (FL)6-5
51Iowa State6-5
53East Carolina7-4
54Louisiana-Monroe7-4
55Bowling Green7-4
56Duke6-5
57Minnesota6-5
58Nevada7-4
59TCU6-4
60Louisiana-Lafayette6-4
61North Carolina State6-5
62Arizona State6-5
63Brigham Young6-5
64Georgia Tech6-5
65West Virginia5-5
66Missouri5-6
67Michigan State5-6
68Baylor5-5
69Ole Miss5-6
70Western Kentucky6-5
71Purdue5-6
72Virginia Tech5-6
73Wake Forest5-6
74Air Force6-5
75Arkansas4-7
76Central Michigan5-6
77Utah4-7
78Troy5-6
79Iowa4-7
80Virginia4-7
81Tennessee4-7
82Rice5-6
83Pittsburgh4-6
84Indiana4-7
85Marshall5-6
86Temple4-6
87Southern Methodist5-6
88Miami (OH)4-7
89Wyoming4-7
90Buffalo4-7
91North Texas4-7
92South Florida3-7
93Auburn3-8
94Maryland4-7
95Houston4-7
96California3-9
97Western Michigan4-8
98Connecticut4-6
99New Mexico4-8
100Kentucky2-9
101Florida Atlantic3-8
102Colorado State3-8
103Memphis3-8
104Florida International3-8
105UAB3-8
106UTEP3-8
107Illinois2-9
108Army2-9
109Boston College2-9
110Eastern Michigan2-9
111Washington State2-9
112Kansas1-10
113UNLV2-10
114Tulane2-9
115Colorado1-10
116Idaho1-10
117Hawaii1-9
118New Mexico State1-9
119Akron1-10
120Southern Miss0-11

2012 History

2012-11-16

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Chicago over Houston

These Monday and Thursday posts are becoming a bit of a drag, often involving teams that won't affect things very much in January and February. Last night's 3-6 vs 4-5 game didn't change much except for reducing Miami's chances at the playoffs even further. The Bills brought theirs up for sure, but now they're at 4-6 along with Miami, both a half game ahead of the Jets, and 2.5 behind perennial favorite New England. That's a big lead late in the season.

And yes, Jacksonville can still win their division, despite my runs all failing to hit the scenario.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CHI7-20.70167.95693.26378.46246.54627.00915.258
HOU8-10.69396.26899.95997.15860.79835.33319.335
SF6-2-10.68379.36891.96970.88139.53221.80911.859
NE6-30.65095.92596.99671.15137.77519.1809.589
DEN6-30.63992.86196.77170.80236.34017.9518.750
ATL8-10.63591.19097.49787.59045.27221.61610.640
BAL7-20.60469.33695.21269.79632.53714.7896.675
GB6-30.59925.15869.17041.28918.1948.1573.705
NYG6-40.59672.54777.81542.00318.3928.0953.652
SEA6-40.59419.69561.29733.01614.4756.4132.878
TB5-40.5898.24038.14319.5228.3873.6691.630
PIT6-30.56529.74378.77741.27816.7077.0652.913
SD4-50.5386.89932.71114.3735.3152.1490.829
MIN6-40.5356.59723.79110.7464.0731.5840.619
DET4-50.4880.2883.4441.3170.4360.1500.052
NO4-50.4880.5688.1933.1141.0310.3550.123
CIN4-50.4790.91713.6614.9851.5370.5450.182
IND6-30.4673.71666.12924.5907.5372.5660.828
DAL4-50.46619.12321.8987.7362.4220.7730.254
WAS3-60.4615.9377.0492.4460.7540.2380.077
MIA4-60.4572.5314.1531.6050.4860.1610.050
ARI4-50.4250.5912.5180.8030.2280.0670.019
CLE2-70.4100.0040.4020.1170.0290.0090.002
NYJ3-60.3941.0464.4831.3410.3240.0910.024
STL3-5-10.3940.3461.4430.4070.1030.0270.007
CAR2-70.3880.0030.0250.0070.0020.0000.000
BUF4-60.3830.4995.3661.4830.3420.0930.024
PHI3-60.3652.3922.4850.6620.1530.0360.009
OAK3-60.3500.2371.5860.4010.0820.0200.005
TEN4-60.3490.0173.7800.9190.1910.0470.011
KC1-80.3070.0030.0070.0020.0000.0000.000
JAC1-80.287-0.0070.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]

2012-11-15

eBay Wins #47

1 cent for a Shannon Stewart? Why not, right? Stewart only played 12 games in 1995, so this picture was probably taken while he was in the minors, hence the set title, Upper Deck Minors. Also, be careful Google searching for him from work, there's apparently also a model out there by the same name.

1995 Upper Deck Minors #32 Shannon Stewart

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2026
Total Spent$38.67
Per Card1.909 cents

2012-11-13

Superbowl XLVII Projection, Week 10, Final

Chicago over Houston

All that really happened last night was that Kansas City's chances got even more dire. And Pittsburgh saved themselves some serious embarrassment in OT with a 16-13 win.

Given that lack of action, I'd like to explore how Jacksonville can win their division. I've said in the last several posts that I think it would take a 4-way tie, so I'll flesh that out a bit.

AFC South
8-1 Houston
6-3 Indianapolis
4-6 Tennessee
1-8 Jacksonville

First, Jacksonville must win all 7 games in order to reach the 8 wins necessary to tie Houston. Houston must lose all 7 games as well, otherwise they'd eliminate Jacksonville. Houston has 2 games remaining against Indianapolis, which puts them at 8 wins. So they'll have to lose their other 5 games. 4 of those games are against Tennessee, moving them to 6-8 with their games against Green Bay and the Jets undetermined.

AFC South
8-8 Houston
8-8 Jacksonville
8-8 Indianapolis
6-8 Tennessee

Let's examine the 3-way tie. The first tiebreaker for a 3-way division tie is Head to Head
H2HHOUINDJAC
HOU-0-21-1
IND2-0-1-1
JAC1-11-1-
Indianapolis wins with a 3-1 H2H record, and takes the division. That was easy.

The only other possible scenario is to have Tennessee win their two remaining games, and all teams are now 8-8. The first tiebreaker is the same.

H2HHOUINDJACTEN
HOU-0-21-11-1
IND2-0-1-11-1
JAC1-11-1-2-0
TEN1-11-10-2-
This eliminates Houston and Tennessee from contention, and now Indianapolis and Jacksonville revert to the two-team tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is Head to Head again, and they are tied 1-1. Next up is the division record. You can pretty much see the division record above, both teams will be 4-2.

The 3rd tiebreaker is common opponents. By the time this tiebreaker is reached, it boils down to who has the worse record against the 2 non-common opponents. Since the AFC South is playing all of the NFC North and all of the AFC East this year, those non-common opponents are from the AFC North and AFC West. For Jacksonville, those are the Raiders and Bengals, and for Indianapolis, those are the Chiefs and Browns. Jacksonville is already 0-2 against their non-common teams (so 7-5 against common teams), while Indianapolis has already beat the Browns and would lose to the Chiefs, making them 1-1 against non-common teams, and 6-6 against common teams.

It seems a little irrational that a win by Tennessee against Green Bay could swing the division from Indianapolis to Jacksonville, but in this case, it could.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
CHI7-20.70167.95393.28478.50646.57527.02715.275
HOU8-10.69396.26699.95497.17360.83635.38419.364
SF6-2-10.68379.33391.88070.74839.45721.76711.848
NE6-30.65093.62795.84370.18437.24818.9299.463
DEN6-30.63992.86296.65970.72636.37317.9818.765
ATL8-10.63691.18997.51087.63945.30621.62810.647
BAL7-20.60469.33995.03069.73932.56814.8086.685
GB6-30.59925.16769.23041.35818.2278.1743.714
NYG6-40.59672.56477.84842.03818.4028.1033.656
SEA6-40.59419.71361.06632.87014.4176.3882.867
TB5-40.5898.23938.22419.5638.4053.6771.635
PIT6-30.56529.74077.83340.93416.5927.0192.893
SD4-50.5386.89832.11914.1585.2392.1160.817
MIN6-40.5356.59223.83110.7704.0781.5860.620
DET4-50.4880.2883.4521.3200.4360.1500.053
NO4-50.4880.5698.2203.1221.0320.3570.125
CIN4-50.4790.91713.1674.8191.4880.5280.175
MIA4-50.4705.25611.1204.2941.3470.4600.150
IND6-30.4673.71766.11224.6787.5662.5760.831
DAL4-50.46619.11121.8997.7322.4200.7720.253
WAS3-60.4615.9357.0542.4470.7550.2380.077
ARI4-50.4240.6022.5410.8110.2300.0680.020
CLE2-70.4100.0040.3880.1130.0280.0080.002
NYJ3-60.3940.8954.1091.2260.2960.0830.022
STL3-5-10.3930.3521.4540.4110.1040.0280.007
CAR2-70.3880.0030.0260.0070.0020.0000.000
BUF3-60.3810.2232.5230.6920.1580.0430.011
PHI3-60.3652.3892.4830.6600.1530.0360.009
OAK3-60.3500.2361.4690.3730.0780.0190.004
TEN4-60.3490.0173.6590.8900.1840.0450.010
KC1-80.3070.0030.0070.0020.0000.0000.000
JAC1-80.287-0.0060.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% Chance of Superbowl win: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)

First to 80% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 90% Chance of Playoffs: Houston, Atlanta (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99.9% Chance of Playoffs: Houston (Week 10, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]