The Pujols Contract

Do you know what makes me mad (with a small m)? Bad Math.

Last night on my way home from class, I heard Cliff Saunders say something provocative to get reactions, as talk radio hosts usually do.  He said all things being equal, if he were Pujols, he'd take the Miami offer over the Cardinals, then, as though he could feel 10,000 St. Louisans gasping and yelling "How DARE he?!", he followed with "And let me tell you why.  State Taxes.  Albert's $220 Million will be about $165 Million after Missouri taxes, and Florida has NO state income tax."

My BS meter immediately went off before even having to calculate the numbers.  Some quick math and I discovered Mr. Saunders thinks he's paying 25% state tax in Missouri.  I know Missouri basically works out to a flat 6% if you make enough to survive, putting the bill at around $13.2 Million, as opposed to Cliff's $55 Million .  His accountant better be worried, Cliff may be coming for the 19% of his income the cheater pocketed last year.  To his credit, he did come back from break and apologize for the math error (what I think he really meant was, sorry for making up numbers on the spot to be provocative), and state that the right bill would be around $13 million.  So the Cardinals should simply offer $234+ million so that after taxes, it works out the same, right?

Then I started thinking about the funny mental image I get every year I do my state taxes.  At least in Missouri, there's a specific section asking if you are a performer of some sort and if any of your income was earned in other states, making me wistfully think of running off to join the circus.  My understanding is that this applies to professional athletes as well, as I recall Sports Illustrated throwing out the "Fun Fact" of how much California state tax Alex Rodriguez would pay during his 10-year, $252 Million deal.  So, I ran the numbers using next year's schedule as a guide.  I know Houston is leaving the NL Central and interleague play changes from year to year, but all I have to go on is the 2012 schedule for now, so let's assume everything is consistent year to year, and ignore anything but the 162 game schedule for simplicity

Assumptions for simplicity:
Pujols will pay the top marginal tax rate on ALL of his money
Tax rates will stay the same for 10 years.
Each regular season game counts for 1/162 of his pay.
The schedule and states of teams stay the same for the next 10 years.

My source for the state tax rates.

City	State	Rate	Marlins	Income	Tax	Cardinals	Income	Tax
HOU	TX	0.00%	3	4.07	0	9	12.22	0
MIA	FL	0.00%	81	110.00	0	4	5.43	0
SEA	WAS	0.00%	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	FL	0.00%	3	4.07	0	0	0	0
TEX	TX	0.00%	0	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	PA	3.07%	9	12.22	0.38	3	4.07	0.13
PIT	PA	3.07%	3	4.07	0.13	6	8.15	0.25
DET	MI	4.35%	0	0	0	3	4.07	0.18
ARI	AZ	4.54%	4	5.43	0.25	3	4.07	0.18
COL	CO	4.63%	4	5.43	0.25	3	4.07	0.19
CHC	IL	5%	3	4.07	0.20	9	12.22	0.61
CHW	IL	5%	0	0	0	0	0	0
BOS	MA	5.30%	3	4.07	0.22	0	0	0
BAL	MD	5.50%	0	0	0	0	0	0
CIN	OH	5.93%	3	4.07	0.24	9	12.22	0.72
CLE	OH	5.93%	3	4.07	0.24	0	0	0
ATL	GA	6%	9	12.22	0.73	3	4.07	0.24
KC	MO	6%	0	0	0	3	4.07	0.24
STL	MO	6%	3	4.07	0.24	81	110.00	6.60
MIL	WI	7.75%	4	5.43	0.42	6	8.15	0.63
MIN	MN	7.85%	0	0	0	0	0	0
DC	DC	8.50%	9	12.22	1.04	4	5.43	0.46
NYM	NY	8.97%	9	12.22	1.10	4	5.43	0.49
NYY	NY	8.97%	0	0	0	0	0	0
LAA	CA	9.30%	0	0	0	0	0	0
LAD	CA	9.30%	3	4.07	0.38	7	9.51	0.88
OAK	CA	9.30%	0	0	0	0	0	0
SD	CA	9.30%	3	4.07	0.38	3	4.07	0.38
SF	CA	9.30%	3	4.07	0.38	2	2.72	0.25
TOR	Canada, eh		0	0	0	0	0	0
			162	220	6.57	162	220	12.44
					Extra Cost of STL over MIA			5.87

I'm glad neither team is travelling to Toronto.  I don't know how that works.

So, all things being equal, the total difference over 10 years to Albert is around $5.87 Million, or $587,000 per year.  It will also scale linearly to the actual contract value, so if he signs for $200 million the difference is closer to $533,000 per year.  I suppose it's not an insignificant sum, but it's hard to think he'd leave fans that would likely never turn on him, even when he's a 41 year old base-clogger, and the chance to be a Cardinal for life, someone the kids want to see at opening day ceremonies for the next 40-60 years, the next Stan Musial in this town, for under $6 million.  Of course, the Cardinals are low-balling him, as it'll mean a lot to ticket sales to have him around for the rest of his career and life, so maybe they could throw in another $600k a year.  Add 20 cents to each ticket sold for the next 10 years and they should have it.  Look at me, the Great Compromiser.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 13, Final

San Francisco over Houston

Not a lot to say this week.  2 NFC teams are in, 2 teams from each conference are out.  In a week or so I'll stop showing the eliminated teams, as they're irrelevant to the conversation.  Also, notice how Denver is way down the list despite being 7-5? That's because their actual strength is very low, so they've won more games than they "should".  In a nutshell, they're lucky, in the same way San Francisco is unluckier than Green Bay, being a better team but with a worse record.  We'll see how all this plays out in the coming weeks.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-2	+	+	98.254	62.540	37.178	21.572
HOU	9-3	99.269	99.611	84.260	49.111	27.886	14.611
GB	12-0	+	+	99.975	64.969	32.671	17.494
BAL	9-3	75.725	99.724	91.475	53.452	27.856	13.839
NE	9-3	98.882	99.646	85.161	43.774	22.094	10.461
NO	9-3	95.466	99.824	64.432	27.279	13.813	6.811
PIT	9-3	24.255	99.735	76.307	35.340	16.325	7.228
CHI	7-5	-	70.860	33.520	11.768	4.468	1.770
DET	7-5	-	58.004	28.664	10.007	3.783	1.498
DAL	7-5	84.886	87.225	42.680	13.966	5.019	1.897
MIA	4-8	-	0.005	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	7-5	1.108	45.718	16.556	5.714	2.104	0.716
ATL	7-5	4.534	64.011	25.681	7.960	2.695	0.950
TEN	7-5	0.731	30.067	10.339	3.476	1.245	0.408
CIN	7-5	0.020	18.303	6.163	2.028	0.701	0.222
SD	5-7	2.037	2.519	0.801	0.235	0.072	0.020
PHI	4-8	0.501	0.532	0.203	0.050	0.013	0.004
BUF	5-7	0.011	0.108	0.030	0.008	0.002	0.001
NYG	6-6	14.604	16.014	5.633	1.255	0.310	0.082
CAR	4-8	-	0.012	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	7-5	33.760	38.560	10.727	2.606	0.663	0.159
SEA	5-7	-	2.319	0.645	0.141	0.034	0.008
DEN	7-5	62.056	63.852	17.856	4.214	1.047	0.245
ARI	5-7	-	1.088	0.286	0.061	0.014	0.004
WAS	4-8	0.009	0.081	0.018	0.003	0.001	0.000
MIN	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	-	-
TB	4-8	-	0.031	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
KC	5-7	2.147	2.154	0.322	0.042	0.006	0.001
IND	0-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 12, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 13, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco and Green Bay have clinched their divisions, and San Francisco looks artificially strong after destroying my Rams 26-0 yesterday.  More analysis to come after MNF.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-2	+	+	98.245	62.524	37.167	21.560
HOU	9-3	99.307	99.635	84.332	49.140	27.897	14.617
GB	12-0	+	+	99.975	64.951	32.662	17.485
BAL	9-3	76.902	99.762	91.924	53.879	28.053	13.937
NE	9-3	98.879	99.642	85.006	43.570	22.005	10.419
NO	9-3	95.604	99.822	64.418	27.272	13.809	6.807
PIT	9-3	23.080	99.741	76.105	35.199	16.253	7.198
CHI	7-5	-	70.618	33.340	11.706	4.446	1.761
DET	7-5	-	59.767	29.561	10.320	3.902	1.544
DAL	7-5	84.882	87.262	42.669	13.964	5.018	1.896
MIA	4-8	-	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NYJ	7-5	1.109	45.872	16.577	5.717	2.106	0.716
ATL	7-5	4.396	62.345	24.971	7.745	2.622	0.924
TEN	7-5	0.693	29.047	9.991	3.356	1.202	0.394
CIN	7-5	0.018	18.691	6.286	2.066	0.714	0.227
PHI	4-8	0.502	0.532	0.203	0.050	0.013	0.004
BUF	5-7	0.012	0.124	0.035	0.009	0.002	0.001
SD	4-7	0.937	1.147	0.321	0.082	0.022	0.006
NYG	6-6	14.607	16.087	5.650	1.259	0.311	0.082
CAR	4-8	-	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
OAK	7-5	35.783	41.027	11.425	2.773	0.706	0.169
SEA	5-7	-	2.328	0.648	0.141	0.034	0.008
DEN	7-5	61.084	63.100	17.666	4.165	1.034	0.242
ARI	5-7	-	1.111	0.292	0.063	0.015	0.004
WAS	4-8	0.008	0.083	0.019	0.003	0.001	0.000
MIN	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-8	-	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	4-8	-	0.030	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
KC	5-7	2.196	2.204	0.330	0.043	0.006	0.001
IND	0-12	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	2-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)
First to clinch a division: Green Bay, San Francisco (week 12, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

Well, all the FBS games are over except the Army-Navy game next week.  There are a few FCS and Divison II/III games left which might slightly affect teams' strength of schedules, but probably not very much.  So this is probably just about what the final pre-bowl rankings will look like.

In my rankings, which follow all the rules of a BCS computer, the championship should be LSU vs. Oklahoma State, and Virginia Tech would have been #2 there if they had beaten Clemson this week.

As I'm scheduling this before the BCS rankings actually come out, I really hope Alabama doesn't wind up at #2, even though I fear they will.  I think my ideal scenario this week would have been for VT and Houston to win and LSU to lose, but LSU and Alabama still wind up the National Championship, so that the BCS would at least have to take a good hard look at why that happened.  As for now, as long as LSU wins the final, the BCS can justify everything by saying the best team won, and the sports world outrage can continue for another year.

1	LSU	13-0
2	Oklahoma State	11-1
3	Alabama	11-1
4	Virginia Tech	11-2
5	Houston	12-1
6	Boise State	11-1
7	Stanford	11-1
8	Wisconsin	11-2
9	Oregon	11-2
10	Kansas State	10-2
11	Michigan	10-2
12	Clemson	10-3
13	South Carolina	10-2
14	USC	10-2
15	Georgia	10-3
16	Southern Miss	11-2
17	TCU	10-2
18	Arkansas	10-2
19	Michigan State	10-3
20	Oklahoma	9-3
21	Baylor	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Northern Illinois	10-3
24	Penn State	9-3
25	West Virginia	9-3
26	Arkansas State	10-2
27	Cincinnati	9-3
28	Notre Dame	8-4
29	Toledo	8-4
30	Brigham Young	9-3
31	Ohio	9-4
32	Rutgers	8-4
33	Tulsa	8-4
34	Virginia	8-4
35	Wyoming	8-4
36	Georgia Tech	8-4
37	North Carolina	7-5
38	Louisiana Tech	8-4
39	Florida State	8-4
40	Texas	7-5
41	Auburn	7-5
42	San Diego State	8-4
43	Louisville	7-5
44	Missouri	7-5
45	North Carolina State	7-5
46	Iowa	7-5
47	Washington	7-5
48	Temple	8-4
49	Utah	7-5
50	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
51	California	7-5
52	Iowa State	6-6
53	Florida International	8-4
54	Southern Methodist	7-5
55	Texas A&M	6-6
56	Pittsburgh	6-6
57	Air Force	7-5
58	Utah State	7-5
59	Western Michigan	7-5
60	Miami (FL)	6-6
61	Western Kentucky	7-5
62	Florida	6-6
63	Nevada	7-5
64	Illinois	6-6
65	Ohio State	6-6
66	Marshall	6-6
67	Mississippi State	6-6
68	Vanderbilt	6-6
69	Wake Forest	6-6
70	UCLA	6-7
71	Arizona State	6-6
72	Eastern Michigan	6-6
73	Ball State	6-6
74	Purdue	6-6
75	Northwestern	6-6
76	Tennessee	5-7
77	South Florida	5-7
78	Texas Tech	5-7
79	Kentucky	5-7
80	Syracuse	5-7
81	Connecticut	5-7
82	Kent State	5-7
83	Bowling Green	5-7
84	Hawaii	6-7
85	East Carolina	5-7
86	UTEP	5-7
87	San Jose State	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Navy	4-7
90	UCF	5-7
91	Arizona	4-8
92	Boston College	4-8
93	Rice	4-8
94	Washington State	4-8
95	Fresno State	4-9
96	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
97	Minnesota	3-9
98	Miami (OH)	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	New Mexico State	4-9
101	Duke	3-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Kansas	2-10
104	Colorado	3-10
105	Maryland	2-10
106	Buffalo	3-9
107	Army	3-8
108	Ole Miss	2-10
109	Troy	3-9
110	Colorado State	3-9
111	UAB	3-9
112	UNLV	2-10
113	Idaho	2-10
114	Indiana	1-11
115	Middle Tennessee	2-10
116	New Mexico	1-11
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Tulane	2-11
119	Florida Atlantic	1-11
120	Akron	1-11

eBay Wins #9

My bargain-hunting continued with some junk wax, but for 2 cents apiece, why not.  I bought a lot of 24 1989 Fleer California Angels.  I figured I'd be willing to pay $13.20 for the whole 660 card set, so these were worth it.

The highlights:

The Bonus Packing Material - 2 1989 Fleer Stickers
It's nice when people make sure the outer cards in the stack won't get dinged 

1989 Fleer Dante Bichette

1989 Fleer Bob Boone

1989 Fleer Chuck Finley
The former Cardinal!

1989 Fleer Wally Joyner

eBay Tracker
Total Cards Bought	123
Total Spent	$3.28
Per Card	2.67 cents

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Final

Green Bay over Houston.

Believe it or not, Green Bay still isn't in the playoffs for certain. And New Orleans came on strong last night to boost their chances and drop Green Bay back below 20% to win it all. Jacksonville can't win the AFC South but has an outside shot at a Wildcard, and the Rams, Colts, and Vikings are playing for draft picks.  We should see several teams eliminated and a few lock up spots next week.

From a gut reaction standpoint as opposed to the numbers, I think Baltimore has a better shot than Houston right now, although Leinert being out may only help their cause.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.909	100.000	99.900	64.542	35.572	19.968
HOU	8-3	98.358	98.904	80.548	47.501	27.456	14.584
SF	9-2	99.944	99.985	97.502	58.985	31.656	17.382
BAL	8-3	75.863	98.234	87.351	50.514	26.148	12.951
NE	8-3	98.763	99.354	86.398	47.348	24.922	12.272
NO	8-3	87.226	95.652	59.125	26.838	13.214	6.591
DET	7-4	0.067	58.551	32.998	12.958	5.660	2.538
CHI	7-4	0.024	77.259	41.769	15.747	6.629	2.869
PIT	8-3	18.987	91.590	59.187	25.354	10.870	4.484
CIN	7-4	5.150	55.678	29.170	11.956	5.054	2.018
ATL	7-4	12.760	61.535	27.022	9.162	3.551	1.398
TEN	6-5	1.642	18.379	6.912	2.444	0.920	0.316
NYJ	6-5	1.177	27.040	10.488	3.631	1.346	0.460
MIA	3-8	0.001	0.008	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
DAL	6-5	66.296	67.202	27.464	8.131	2.664	0.920
PHI	4-7	6.765	6.877	2.772	0.813	0.265	0.091
SEA	5-6	0.056	4.431	1.641	0.433	0.135	0.042
OAK	7-4	63.531	68.417	26.172	7.763	2.362	0.692
BUF	5-6	0.059	1.970	0.637	0.183	0.057	0.016
NYG	6-5	26.496	27.628	9.565	2.343	0.644	0.187
SD	4-7	1.235	1.419	0.469	0.130	0.037	0.010
DEN	6-5	34.682	38.421	12.552	3.158	0.825	0.206
ARI	4-7	0.001	0.138	0.038	0.008	0.002	0.001
CAR	3-8	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	4-7	0.443	0.572	0.170	0.036	0.009	0.002
CLE	4-7	0.000	0.029	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-8	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	4-7	0.014	0.169	0.034	0.005	0.001	0.000
KC	4-7	0.552	0.556	0.105	0.015	0.002	0.000
STL	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Green Bay over Houston

One more quick peek into the standings before the Giants take on the Saints.
Frankly, I have a hard time seeing Houston in the Superbowl with their QB situation.
Green Bay hasn't actually clinched a playoff spot, but their chances at at least 99.9995% and round to 100, however, a New Orleans loss tonight appears to clinch it for them.
The Rams and Vikings appear to be eliminated.
Tim Tebow has what should be a lower-tier team somehow in the mix.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.900	100.000	99.913	64.621	36.091	20.262
HOU	8-3	98.261	98.859	80.544	47.491	27.451	14.676
SF	9-2	99.943	99.986	98.413	61.700	33.188	18.223
BAL	8-3	75.848	98.216	87.334	50.496	26.134	13.035
NE	8-3	98.835	99.380	86.368	47.325	24.913	12.355
NO	7-3	78.552	89.072	51.132	21.314	9.790	4.545
DET	7-4	0.073	60.793	34.464	13.547	6.002	2.693
CHI	7-4	0.027	77.406	42.406	16.002	6.829	2.957
PIT	8-3	18.996	91.668	59.220	25.373	10.881	4.530
CIN	7-4	5.155	56.032	29.335	12.029	5.084	2.050
ATL	7-4	21.398	62.539	29.016	9.872	3.850	1.516
TEN	6-5	1.739	19.021	7.159	2.532	0.954	0.331
NYJ	6-5	1.104	25.900	10.049	3.480	1.291	0.446
MIA	3-8	0.001	0.009	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
DAL	6-5	56.108	57.912	23.891	7.093	2.374	0.821
PHI	4-7	5.015	5.198	2.104	0.618	0.206	0.071
NYG	6-4	38.559	41.480	16.514	4.679	1.500	0.497
SEA	5-6	0.056	4.845	1.925	0.509	0.160	0.050
OAK	7-4	63.533	68.450	26.191	7.773	2.367	0.702
BUF	5-6	0.060	2.023	0.654	0.188	0.058	0.017
SD	4-7	1.236	1.422	0.470	0.131	0.037	0.010
DEN	6-5	34.678	38.433	12.561	3.163	0.827	0.209
ARI	4-7	0.001	0.139	0.043	0.009	0.002	0.001
CAR	3-8	0.002	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	4-7	0.318	0.442	0.135	0.029	0.007	0.002
CLE	4-7	0.000	0.029	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-8	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	4-7	0.048	0.185	0.042	0.007	0.001	0.000
KC	4-7	0.553	0.557	0.105	0.015	0.002	0.000
STL	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

Win a Big Pile of Cards

Go enter the contest at Royals and Randoms.  And of course, promote it for an extra entry like I am here.

Remember, the hole's natural enemy is the pile.  Think about it.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

LSU holds on to #1, as always. I was really pulling against them this week, as I understood a loss by them would result in some sort of odd 3-way tie where Arkansas would win the SEC West, and LSU and Alabama could still wind up in the BCS Championship.  If nothing else it would force more scrutiny on the BCS, which is always a good thing.  Virginia Tech is back up to #2, and I'm surprised to see it's the BCS computers, not the polls, keeping them down.  Houston is stalking the idle Alabama at #4.  The top of my rankings actually aren't that far off from the BCS rankings this week, with a match at #1 and the same top 6.

In the reverse of the Virginia Tech situation, Missouri surprisingly showed up in the top 25 despite being absent from both polls.  The BCS computers ranked them as high as 15 and 16, whereas I have them at #42 this week.  With any luck, that will help them get a higher profile bowl game.

1	LSU	12-0
2	Virginia Tech	11-1
3	Alabama	11-1
4	Houston	12-0
5	Stanford	11-1
6	Oklahoma State	10-1
7	Michigan	10-2
8	South Carolina	10-2
9	Boise State	10-1
10	USC	10-2
11	Georgia	10-2
12	Oregon	10-2
13	Wisconsin	10-2
14	Michigan State	10-2
15	Arkansas	10-2
16	Oklahoma	9-2
17	Kansas State	9-2
18	Nebraska	9-3
19	Clemson	9-3
20	Penn State	9-3
21	Southern Miss	10-2
22	TCU	9-2
23	Baylor	8-3
24	Arkansas State	9-2
25	Northern Illinois	9-3
26	West Virginia	8-3
27	Notre Dame	8-4
28	Toledo	8-4
29	Ohio	9-3
30	Rutgers	8-4
31	Virginia	8-4
32	Cincinnati	8-3
33	Tulsa	8-4
34	Georgia Tech	8-4
35	North Carolina	7-5
36	Florida State	8-4
37	Texas	7-4
38	Louisiana Tech	8-4
39	Auburn	7-5
40	Louisville	7-5
41	Brigham Young	8-3
42	Missouri	7-5
43	North Carolina State	7-5
44	Washington	7-5
45	Iowa	7-5
46	Temple	8-4
47	Wyoming	7-4
48	California	7-5
49	Utah	7-5
50	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
51	Iowa State	6-5
52	San Diego State	7-4
53	Florida International	8-4
54	Southern Methodist	7-5
55	Texas A&M	6-6
56	Air Force	7-5
57	Western Michigan	7-5
58	Miami (FL)	6-6
59	Florida	6-6
60	Western Kentucky	7-5
61	Ohio State	6-6
62	Illinois	6-6
63	Mississippi State	6-6
64	Vanderbilt	6-6
65	Marshall	6-6
66	Wake Forest	6-6
67	UCLA	6-6
68	Arizona State	6-6
69	Eastern Michigan	6-6
70	Ball State	6-6
71	Purdue	6-6
72	Pittsburgh	5-6
73	Utah State	6-5
74	Northwestern	6-6
75	Tennessee	5-7
76	Nevada	6-5
77	South Florida	5-6
78	Syracuse	5-6
79	Texas Tech	5-7
80	Kentucky	5-7
81	Connecticut	5-6
82	Kent State	5-7
83	Bowling Green	5-7
84	Hawaii	6-6
85	East Carolina	5-7
86	UTEP	5-7
87	Navy	4-7
88	San Jose State	5-7
89	Arizona	4-8
90	UCF	5-7
91	Boston College	4-8
92	Rice	4-8
93	North Texas	4-7
94	Fresno State	4-8
95	Washington State	4-8
96	Minnesota	3-9
97	Miami (OH)	4-8
98	New Mexico State	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	Duke	3-9
101	Central Michigan	3-9
102	Louisiana-Monroe	3-8
103	Colorado	3-10
104	Kansas	2-10
105	Maryland	2-10
106	Army	3-8
107	Buffalo	3-9
108	Ole Miss	2-10
109	Troy	3-8
110	Colorado State	3-8
111	UAB	3-9
112	Idaho	2-9
113	UNLV	2-9
114	Middle Tennessee	2-9
115	Indiana	1-11
116	New Mexico	1-10
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Florida Atlantic	1-10
119	Tulane	2-11
120	Akron	1-11

Another Contest win at Sports Card Info

Many of you know Sports Card Info runs a weekly contest where you can enter by commenting on the contest post up to once per day.  I won one last July, and another just a few weeks ago.  Here's the nice Relic of Niklas Backstrom, a little blurrier than I realized:

2011-2012 ITG Canada Vs The World

Not only did he send me this card for free, but included two bonus packs:

2010 Panini Adrenalyn XL

I don't really collect football cards too seriously, so I didn't know what this product was.  Apparently you can enter the codes from the cards to play a game online.  I believe this game is expired, but if not, and if anyone wants the codes off the back, drop me an email and I'll send them.  Or, I'd be willing to trade the physical cards for some baseball stuff off my wantlist as well.

Sadly, no Rams were inside.  There was former Mizzou Tiger Justin Gage, though.

A big thanks to Ross at Sports Card Info for the contest and the bonus!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Green Bay over Baltimore

Note that Houston is a stronger team than Baltimore at the moment, but they're more likely to run into stronger teams in the playoffs.  It's kind of an odd scenario, which culminates in Houston being slightly less likely that Baltimore to make the Superbowl.  As of now, Green Bay could clinch the NFC North next week thanks to their continued undefeated season.

On a side note, I'm kind of glad the Rams didn't draft Ndamukong Suh last year, even though I pushed for it on Twitter.  That kind of on-field stuff doesn't play well in St. Louis, and he'd be run out of town and we'd be out a lot of money.  Not that we're holier-than-thou here; we'll put up with all kinds of off-field shenanigans.  But that's a rant for another time.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.542	99.975	99.799	66.006	36.870	21.261
SF	9-2	99.620	99.980	98.523	61.833	33.414	18.860
HOU	7-3	97.679	98.831	83.321	49.029	27.883	14.312
BAL	8-3	79.865	96.909	89.378	54.145	29.215	14.575
NE	7-3	96.025	98.685	83.563	44.190	22.486	10.509
NO	7-3	83.857	93.227	56.892	23.703	10.894	5.227
DET	7-4	0.063	32.367	18.654	7.341	3.270	1.518
CHI	7-3	0.395	65.985	38.108	14.742	6.424	2.930
PIT	7-3	15.745	74.739	51.135	21.980	9.474	3.822
CIN	6-4	4.355	27.448	17.511	7.364	3.162	1.255
PHI	4-6	11.934	15.356	6.866	2.226	0.825	0.323
ATL	6-4	15.867	61.405	27.001	8.643	3.205	1.246
NYJ	5-5	1.945	36.846	14.354	5.056	1.922	0.651
TEN	5-5	2.283	27.823	10.564	3.716	1.405	0.470
MIA	3-8	0.016	0.387	0.140	0.047	0.018	0.006
DAL	6-5	50.934	56.822	23.989	7.111	2.396	0.863
NYG	6-4	37.019	46.909	19.179	5.419	1.751	0.604
SEA	5-5	0.380	25.532	10.350	2.861	0.926	0.315
BUF	5-5	2.014	21.289	7.549	2.309	0.764	0.224
OAK	6-4	55.000	62.544	24.170	7.259	2.276	0.658
SD	4-6	13.704	16.164	5.740	1.692	0.523	0.148
DEN	5-5	29.202	35.480	11.922	3.095	0.850	0.214
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.484	0.146	0.030	0.008	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.012	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.113	0.329	0.097	0.019	0.005	0.001
CLE	4-6	0.035	0.290	0.101	0.023	0.006	0.001
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.213	0.049	0.010	0.002	0.001
TB	4-6	0.272	1.618	0.393	0.065	0.013	0.003
KC	4-6	2.095	2.352	0.503	0.083	0.015	0.002
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

eBay Wins #8

Oddly enough, Thorzul posted this card on Tuesday as he got it from the Diamond Giveaway.  I bought it on eBay for 35 cents awhile back, and it was the next one in my queue to post.

I don't think I can weave a tale any better than Thorzul's about Carl Morton inspiring the Morton's Salt logo.  Unless...

Morton's Steakhouse?
Morton Hears a Who?
Morton Antivirus?
Trust the Morton's Fisherman?

Nah, it's Thanksgiving, there's Turkey to be eaten!  Instead, I'll just introduce my eBay tracker, in its nascent form, to keep track of my eBay bargain hunting.

eBay Tracker
Total Cards Bought	97
Total Spent	$2.80
Per Card	2.89 cents

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco's big win puts them back on top of the NFL, and Houston stays atop the AFC during a bye week with Baltimore's narrow win.  There's been one more elimination, as the Rams can no longer win the NFC West at 2-8.  One flaw in this particular system may be that it does not take into account the strength of opponents, only the scores of the games.  So San Francisco's big win this week against the Cardinals moves them ahead of Green Bay, who beat a slightly better team.  In fact, even if Green Bay had beaten another 9-0 team by the same score, the results would be the same.  Even so, I'll stick to my guns and say as of now San Francisco is my Superbowl pick.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	9-1	99.820	99.991	99.261	62.835	35.378	20.436
GB	10-0	93.292	98.344	96.548	60.368	32.090	18.024
HOU	7-3	97.718	98.858	84.655	50.979	29.834	15.615
BAL	7-3	63.111	91.282	78.384	44.106	22.708	10.903
NE	7-3	95.935	98.622	84.180	45.886	23.926	11.417
DET	7-3	4.504	47.264	30.027	13.119	6.108	2.998
NO	7-3	83.661	93.555	56.658	24.071	11.316	5.549
CHI	7-3	2.205	53.486	31.895	12.919	5.711	2.665
PIT	7-3	28.613	76.696	56.006	25.362	11.142	4.599
CIN	6-4	8.204	30.712	20.349	8.947	3.931	1.597
PHI	4-6	14.813	17.977	7.831	2.638	0.995	0.400
ATL	6-4	16.057	63.257	27.486	9.172	3.445	1.373
NYJ	5-5	1.937	36.551	14.601	5.338	2.070	0.718
TEN	5-5	2.243	27.403	10.650	3.901	1.504	0.517
MIA	3-7	0.127	1.825	0.679	0.243	0.093	0.032
DAL	5-5	40.688	45.063	18.300	5.588	1.917	0.705
NYG	6-4	44.225	52.100	20.799	6.118	2.018	0.715
SEA	5-5	0.180	26.177	10.470	3.033	0.990	0.346
BUF	5-5	2.002	20.849	7.605	2.430	0.821	0.247
OAK	6-4	54.989	62.541	24.410	7.645	2.460	0.730
SD	4-6	13.781	16.311	5.827	1.786	0.566	0.165
DEN	5-5	29.101	35.351	11.950	3.244	0.916	0.236
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.508	0.154	0.034	0.009	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.015	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.274	0.486	0.139	0.029	0.007	0.002
CLE	4-6	0.072	0.411	0.145	0.035	0.009	0.002
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.201	0.047	0.011	0.003	0.001
TB	4-6	0.277	1.778	0.429	0.076	0.016	0.003
KC	4-6	2.129	2.389	0.510	0.088	0.016	0.003
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Here's one more quick peek into the updated projections before MNF.  The last few weeks have fluctuated a lot between SF/GB in the NFC and HOU/BAL in the AFC.  The 49ers break the 20% mark, so right now I give them a better than 1 in 5 shot at winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	9-1	99.820	99.991	99.262	62.836	35.380	20.791
GB	10-0	93.092	98.299	96.437	60.272	32.041	18.322
HOU	7-3	97.719	98.883	87.363	54.979	32.960	17.253
BAL	7-3	63.867	91.457	79.814	46.494	24.571	11.800
DET	7-3	4.699	48.152	30.617	13.387	6.232	3.125
NO	7-3	83.662	93.529	56.642	24.075	11.314	5.668
CHI	7-3	2.208	52.612	31.372	12.710	5.620	2.680
NE	6-3	90.805	95.707	74.211	35.538	16.692	7.056
PIT	7-3	27.751	75.980	55.984	26.208	11.862	4.895
CIN	6-4	8.308	31.200	21.028	9.592	4.349	1.766
PHI	4-6	15.642	18.960	8.260	2.783	1.050	0.432
ATL	6-4	16.056	63.197	27.466	9.164	3.442	1.408
NYJ	5-5	4.596	35.687	15.446	5.809	2.300	0.798
TEN	5-5	2.243	27.915	11.780	4.473	1.756	0.603
MIA	3-7	0.391	2.143	0.883	0.320	0.125	0.043
DAL	5-5	40.291	44.726	18.162	5.546	1.902	0.718
NYG	6-4	43.765	51.651	20.617	6.064	1.999	0.728
SEA	5-5	0.180	26.072	10.429	3.020	0.986	0.355
BUF	5-5	4.208	22.660	9.087	2.970	1.026	0.309
OAK	6-4	52.400	60.176	24.250	7.863	2.627	0.779
SD	4-6	13.509	16.107	5.869	1.865	0.614	0.178
DEN	5-5	28.739	35.120	12.377	3.466	1.018	0.262
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.503	0.153	0.034	0.009	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.303	0.534	0.153	0.032	0.008	0.002
CLE	4-6	0.074	0.426	0.158	0.040	0.011	0.002
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.208	0.052	0.012	0.003	0.001
KC	4-5	5.351	6.331	1.699	0.370	0.086	0.017
TB	4-6	0.277	1.759	0.425	0.075	0.016	0.004
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

As expected, LSU stays on top.  Spankee's Hokies get overtaken by Alabama at #3.  Houston might become another story of national interest as they'll insist they should get a shot at the title, but the BCS will likely keep them out.  Although, an LSU loss this week could leave Houston as the only 12-0 team, making the choice to leave them out that much tougher.

1	LSU	11-0
2	Oklahoma State	10-1
3	Alabama	10-1
4	Virginia Tech	10-1
5	Houston	11-0
6	Arkansas	10-1
7	Kansas State	9-2
8	Stanford	10-1
9	Michigan	9-2
10	Penn State	9-2
11	Clemson	9-2
12	Boise State	9-1
13	South Carolina	9-2
14	Georgia	9-2
15	USC	9-2
16	TCU	9-2
17	Oregon	9-2
18	Michigan State	9-2
19	Wisconsin	9-2
20	Oklahoma	8-2
21	Nebraska	8-3
22	Arkansas State	9-2
23	Southern Miss	9-2
24	Notre Dame	8-3
25	Rutgers	8-3
26	Baylor	7-3
27	Virginia	8-3
28	Georgia Tech	8-3
29	Tulsa	8-3
30	Northern Illinois	8-3
31	Auburn	7-4
32	West Virginia	7-3
33	Ohio	8-3
34	Toledo	7-4
35	Utah	7-4
36	Brigham Young	8-3
37	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-3
38	Iowa	7-4
39	North Carolina	6-5
40	Cincinnati	7-3
41	Wyoming	7-3
42	Florida State	7-4
43	Texas	6-4
44	Iowa State	6-4
45	Louisiana Tech	7-4
46	Miami (FL)	6-5
47	Texas A&M	6-5
48	Missouri	6-5
49	North Carolina State	6-5
50	Illinois	6-5
51	Florida	6-5
52	Louisville	6-5
53	Temple	7-4
54	Washington	6-5
55	Wake Forest	6-5
56	San Diego State	6-4
57	Ohio State	6-5
58	Florida International	7-4
59	California	6-5
60	Arizona State	6-5
61	UCLA	6-5
62	Eastern Michigan	6-5
63	Southern Methodist	6-5
64	Air Force	6-5
65	Tennessee	5-6
66	Western Michigan	6-5
67	Ball State	6-5
68	Pittsburgh	5-5
69	Nevada	6-4
70	Northwestern	6-5
71	Western Kentucky	6-5
72	South Florida	5-5
73	Mississippi State	5-6
74	Texas Tech	5-6
75	Syracuse	5-5
76	Marshall	5-6
77	Vanderbilt	5-6
78	Purdue	5-6
79	Kent State	5-6
80	UTEP	5-6
81	East Carolina	5-6
82	Utah State	5-5
83	Navy	4-7
84	Kentucky	4-7
85	Bowling Green	4-7
86	Rice	4-7
87	Hawaii	5-6
88	Connecticut	4-6
89	North Texas	4-7
90	Fresno State	4-7
91	Washington State	4-7
92	San Jose State	4-7
93	UCF	4-7
94	Miami (OH)	4-7
95	Arizona	3-8
96	New Mexico State	4-7
97	Oregon State	3-8
98	Duke	3-8
99	Boston College	3-8
100	Louisiana-Monroe	3-8
101	Kansas	2-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Maryland	2-9
104	Buffalo	3-8
105	Minnesota	2-9
106	Ole Miss	2-9
107	Army	3-8
108	Troy	3-7
109	UAB	3-8
110	Colorado State	3-7
111	UNLV	2-8
112	Colorado	2-10
113	Idaho	2-9
114	Indiana	1-10
115	Middle Tennessee	2-8
116	New Mexico	1-10
117	Tulane	2-10
118	Memphis	2-9
119	Akron	1-10
120	Florida Atlantic	0-10

eBay Wins #7

It must have been a 2005 kind of day.

2005 Topps Turkey Red David Wright for $0.15

2005 Topps Heritage Mark Teixeira for $0.10

2005 Bowman Heritage Roger Clemens and Mark Teixeira for $0.10 each

I spent a big 45 cents for 4 cards there.  I also just noticed they're all New York guys, at least at some point in their careers.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Houston over Green Bay

Ok, so the end result didn't change, but I think it's interested to see the effects of just one game compared to the end of Week 10.  Tim Tebow shocking the Jets really changed the potential fortunes for those two teams. The Jets dropped from 42% to under 26%, while the Broncos jumped from 20% to 32%.  The jump was so big because the Broncos weren't supposed to win this game.  Of course, each team's respective divisional rivals experienced inverse effects, with San Diego, Oakland, and even Kansas City seeing their playoff chances reduced, and New England, Buffalo, and yes, even the lowly Dolphins, getting a bump.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.785	97.638	85.292	53.747	32.716	17.900
GB	9-0	92.898	98.396	96.054	59.730	32.552	18.302
SF	8-1	99.617	99.955	97.965	59.144	31.997	17.832
BAL	6-3	45.865	76.305	63.053	35.317	18.417	9.071
NO	7-3	88.634	95.602	60.429	27.632	13.632	6.910
DET	6-3	4.704	48.776	29.930	13.341	6.311	3.104
NE	6-3	82.787	92.996	71.344	34.839	16.547	7.377
CIN	6-3	21.365	48.085	35.893	17.759	8.402	3.740
CHI	6-3	2.398	51.553	29.464	12.121	5.392	2.499
PIT	7-3	32.733	73.424	55.502	26.683	12.226	5.330
PHI	3-6	9.127	13.349	5.813	2.015	0.771	0.310
ATL	5-4	10.598	50.310	21.633	7.488	2.886	1.162
TEN	5-4	5.055	33.966	15.990	6.444	2.637	0.996
NYJ	5-5	3.902	25.790	11.416	4.386	1.757	0.648
BUF	5-4	13.233	40.612	20.542	7.932	3.133	1.148
NYG	6-3	63.821	73.069	32.500	10.744	3.859	1.479
DAL	4-5	25.272	34.742	14.565	4.712	1.676	0.634
SD	4-5	23.446	25.558	10.014	3.451	1.209	0.397
OAK	5-4	41.736	45.914	17.683	5.722	1.876	0.577
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.274	8.123	2.255	0.703	0.231
MIA	2-7	0.079	0.338	0.120	0.037	0.013	0.004
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.386	1.154	0.309	0.094	0.030
DEN	5-5	28.998	32.191	11.217	3.237	0.960	0.265
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.257	0.083	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.780	3.237	0.978	0.227	0.059	0.017
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.200	0.069	0.018	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.652	0.183	0.047	0.012	0.003
TB	4-5	0.720	5.066	1.303	0.261	0.060	0.014
KC	4-5	5.821	6.331	1.682	0.380	0.090	0.020
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)