2011-11-22

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco's big win puts them back on top of the NFL, and Houston stays atop the AFC during a bye week with Baltimore's narrow win.  There's been one more elimination, as the Rams can no longer win the NFC West at 2-8.  One flaw in this particular system may be that it does not take into account the strength of opponents, only the scores of the games.  So San Francisco's big win this week against the Cardinals moves them ahead of Green Bay, who beat a slightly better team.  In fact, even if Green Bay had beaten another 9-0 team by the same score, the results would be the same.  Even so, I'll stick to my guns and say as of now San Francisco is my Superbowl pick.

TEAMRecordDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF9-199.82099.99199.26162.83535.37820.436
GB10-093.29298.34496.54860.36832.09018.024
HOU7-397.71898.85884.65550.97929.83415.615
BAL7-363.11191.28278.38444.10622.70810.903
NE7-395.93598.62284.18045.88623.92611.417
DET7-34.50447.26430.02713.1196.1082.998
NO7-383.66193.55556.65824.07111.3165.549
CHI7-32.20553.48631.89512.9195.7112.665
PIT7-328.61376.69656.00625.36211.1424.599
CIN6-48.20430.71220.3498.9473.9311.597
PHI4-614.81317.9777.8312.6380.9950.400
ATL6-416.05763.25727.4869.1723.4451.373
NYJ5-51.93736.55114.6015.3382.0700.718
TEN5-52.24327.40310.6503.9011.5040.517
MIA3-70.1271.8250.6790.2430.0930.032
DAL5-540.68845.06318.3005.5881.9170.705
NYG6-444.22552.10020.7996.1182.0180.715
SEA5-50.18026.17710.4703.0330.9900.346
BUF5-52.00220.8497.6052.4300.8210.247
OAK6-454.98962.54124.4107.6452.4600.730
SD4-613.78116.3115.8271.7860.5660.165
DEN5-529.10135.35111.9503.2440.9160.236
ARI3-70.0000.5080.1540.0340.0090.002
CAR2-80.0040.0150.0050.0010.0000.000
WAS3-70.2740.4860.1390.0290.0070.002
CLE4-60.0720.4110.1450.0350.0090.002
MIN2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC3-70.0380.2010.0470.0110.0030.001
TB4-60.2771.7780.4290.0760.0160.003
KC4-62.1292.3890.5100.0880.0160.003
STL2-8-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
IND0-10------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

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