I actually ran my numbers during the MNF game and Green Bay wasn't favored until the final touchdown was scored, so they are very close to San Francisco in strength, enough that a 7 point swing could put the 49ers back on top of the NFC. Minnesota is eliminated from winning the NFC North. Even if they can tie Green Bay, they've already lost to them twice. I'm less clear on how a 3 way tie or 4 way tie could play out, but as far as I can tell Minnesota can't come out on top in any of them. In the NFC West, I've heard that this is the first week since the 2002 realignment that all 4 teams have won their respective games.
On the AFC side, Houston's convincing win and Baltimore's loss to a lowly NFC West team has put the Texans back on top. Indianapolis is finally officially out of the playoffs, though again, I'd have to draw out their best-case scenario by hand to prove it for sure
I'm looking forward to the last of the byes this week. It makes my numbers feel much less quirky, especially when it comes to ranking 7-3 teams against 6-3 teams.
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)