Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 10

Houston over Green Bay

I actually ran my numbers during the MNF game and Green Bay wasn't favored until the final touchdown was scored, so they are very close to San Francisco in strength, enough that a 7 point swing could put the 49ers back on top of the NFC.  Minnesota is eliminated from winning the NFC North.  Even if they can tie Green Bay, they've already lost to them twice.  I'm less clear on how a 3 way tie or 4 way tie could play out, but as far as I can tell Minnesota can't come out on top in any of them.  In the NFC West, I've heard that this is the first week since the 2002 realignment that all 4 teams have won their respective games.

On the AFC side, Houston's convincing win and Baltimore's loss to a lowly NFC West team has put the Texans back on top.  Indianapolis is finally officially out of the playoffs, though again, I'd have to draw out their best-case scenario by hand to prove it for sure

I'm looking forward to the last of the byes this week.  It makes my numbers feel much less quirky, especially when it comes to ranking 7-3 teams against 6-3 teams.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.809	97.230	84.257	53.050	32.315	17.678
GB	9-0	92.889	98.389	96.045	59.718	32.552	18.328
SF	8-1	99.618	99.955	97.968	59.172	32.013	17.867
BAL	6-3	45.872	76.182	62.686	35.099	18.343	9.034
NO	7-3	88.638	95.604	60.436	27.632	13.630	6.920
DET	6-3	4.702	48.681	29.859	13.305	6.296	3.101
NE	6-3	78.261	91.481	70.246	34.404	16.354	7.291
CIN	6-3	21.354	47.873	35.403	17.517	8.314	3.700
CHI	6-3	2.409	51.628	29.502	12.136	5.397	2.506
PIT	7-3	32.736	73.310	55.031	26.463	12.157	5.297
PHI	3-6	9.121	13.377	5.829	2.021	0.772	0.311
ATL	5-4	10.594	50.277	21.628	7.485	2.885	1.164
TEN	5-4	5.031	28.667	13.664	5.529	2.271	0.857
NYJ	5-4	9.449	42.241	20.838	8.234	3.338	1.252
BUF	5-4	12.234	36.223	18.585	7.190	2.839	1.040
NYG	6-3	63.731	73.020	32.485	10.738	3.853	1.477
DAL	4-5	25.375	34.816	14.598	4.721	1.680	0.636
SD	4-5	26.289	27.682	10.855	3.754	1.313	0.431
OAK	5-4	47.618	50.133	19.200	6.233	2.042	0.627
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.293	8.125	2.255	0.703	0.232
MIA	2-7	0.056	0.275	0.097	0.030	0.010	0.003
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.390	1.157	0.310	0.094	0.030
DEN	4-5	19.256	20.795	7.012	2.005	0.587	0.160
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.256	0.082	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.774	3.229	0.978	0.226	0.059	0.016
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.197	0.066	0.017	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.498	0.142	0.037	0.010	0.002
TB	4-5	0.719	5.055	1.300	0.260	0.060	0.015
KC	4-5	6.837	7.212	1.916	0.437	0.102	0.022
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)