Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Here's one more quick peek into the updated projections before MNF.  The last few weeks have fluctuated a lot between SF/GB in the NFC and HOU/BAL in the AFC.  The 49ers break the 20% mark, so right now I give them a better than 1 in 5 shot at winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	9-1	99.820	99.991	99.262	62.836	35.380	20.791
GB	10-0	93.092	98.299	96.437	60.272	32.041	18.322
HOU	7-3	97.719	98.883	87.363	54.979	32.960	17.253
BAL	7-3	63.867	91.457	79.814	46.494	24.571	11.800
DET	7-3	4.699	48.152	30.617	13.387	6.232	3.125
NO	7-3	83.662	93.529	56.642	24.075	11.314	5.668
CHI	7-3	2.208	52.612	31.372	12.710	5.620	2.680
NE	6-3	90.805	95.707	74.211	35.538	16.692	7.056
PIT	7-3	27.751	75.980	55.984	26.208	11.862	4.895
CIN	6-4	8.308	31.200	21.028	9.592	4.349	1.766
PHI	4-6	15.642	18.960	8.260	2.783	1.050	0.432
ATL	6-4	16.056	63.197	27.466	9.164	3.442	1.408
NYJ	5-5	4.596	35.687	15.446	5.809	2.300	0.798
TEN	5-5	2.243	27.915	11.780	4.473	1.756	0.603
MIA	3-7	0.391	2.143	0.883	0.320	0.125	0.043
DAL	5-5	40.291	44.726	18.162	5.546	1.902	0.718
NYG	6-4	43.765	51.651	20.617	6.064	1.999	0.728
SEA	5-5	0.180	26.072	10.429	3.020	0.986	0.355
BUF	5-5	4.208	22.660	9.087	2.970	1.026	0.309
OAK	6-4	52.400	60.176	24.250	7.863	2.627	0.779
SD	4-6	13.509	16.107	5.869	1.865	0.614	0.178
DEN	5-5	28.739	35.120	12.377	3.466	1.018	0.262
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.503	0.153	0.034	0.009	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.303	0.534	0.153	0.032	0.008	0.002
CLE	4-6	0.074	0.426	0.158	0.040	0.011	0.002
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.208	0.052	0.012	0.003	0.001
KC	4-5	5.351	6.331	1.699	0.370	0.086	0.017
TB	4-6	0.277	1.759	0.425	0.075	0.016	0.004
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)