Updated Trade and Want Lists

I've successfully entered the following haves and wants into Zistle.com:

2011 Topps Series 1
2011 Topps Gypsy Queen
2011 Topps Heritage
2011 Topps Lineage
2011 Topps Opening Day
A few miscellaneous cards from previous years.  It'd be weird if they were from future years

I've got a 3000 count box, stuffed full. In total there are 2,149 cards in sleeves or toploaders, 6 year dividers (pink 3mm craft foam), and I'll guess about 75 set and subset dividers (plain white index cards trimmed to 3" by 4.5"). It would seem that sleeves really diminish the capacity of the box. Of course, all those thick Heritage cards aren't helping either.

I've got all of my cards, even from sets I'm building, in the box.  Once I complete, for example, Series 1, I'll be removing 330 cards.  Same with 200 Lineage cards, 220 Opening Day cards, and 500 Heritage cards.  And at the rate I'm going, 350 Gypsy Queen cards in about 5 years.

I wrote some quick and dirty code to read and parse the exported files from Zistle and make more blog-friendly lists for trading.  Check them out and make me some offers.  I'll be moving on to filling up a second box, starting with 2011 Series 2, Update, and any older cards that get in my way while I'm sorting.

Want List
Trade List - any cards of which I have 2 or more
Have List - I'm adding this for the first time. Anything on this list could be traded for the right price, but if it's not a duplicate I probably value it more highly and might not be reasonable.  I definitely suffer from the fallacy of valuing what's in my hand way more than what's in yours, even if the hands were reversed.

Thanks to everyone who reads my blog, and especially to those who peruse my lists looking to make a trade.

eBay Wins #5

1982 Topps Phil Niekro, for $0.16. Not bad for a Hall of Famer.

He must have been at least 42 if not 43 in this shot (born April 1, 1939), it's hard to believe he pitched another 5-6 years past that.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 5

San Francisco over Baltimore.

San Francisco put up 48 points to Tampa Bay's 3, which really increased their strength, because each team's predicted strength is based on Points For vs Points Against.  However, this doesn't look completely crazy, because my Week 1 projection was Baltimore over San Francisco.

With their wins this week, San Francisco, Detroit, and Green Bay all beak the 90% mark for playoff probability.

At 0-5, the Colts are in danger of falling below the 0.01% chance of winning it all that makes them show up positively in the table.  Even once their chances fall below 0.005%, a 0.00 will show in the table if it's greater than 0, with a dash if the chance is actually zero.  Luckily with 78 of 267 games complete (256 regular season plus 11 playoffs), a season simulation runs faster now than it did in week 1.  Each week I'll keep increasing the number of simulations, hopefully so that each team shows a non-zero chance of being champs if they are not mathematically eliminated.  This week I ran 130,000,000, which takes just under 1 hour.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	4-1	91.45	94.53	75.19	42.53	23.11	12.89
DET	5-0	50.61	93.77	73.43	40.72	22.22	12.34
BAL	3-1	54.13	73.39	57.09	32.07	17.77	9.29
GB	5-0	48.44	93.10	71.48	37.78	19.72	10.58
NE	4-1	48.22	81.69	60.66	31.84	16.57	8.17
BUF	4-1	47.17	77.73	57.28	29.83	15.42	7.56
HOU	3-2	61.80	69.81	45.75	23.50	12.02	5.84
NO	4-1	77.73	84.16	56.99	27.14	12.77	6.33
WAS	3-1	50.41	68.62	43.75	20.57	9.63	4.75
CIN	3-2	22.96	44.78	28.74	13.92	6.71	3.07
PIT	3-2	18.06	40.49	24.85	11.87	5.66	2.57
TEN	3-2	35.67	50.50	29.90	14.11	6.64	2.97
SD	4-1	62.26	72.81	48.30	22.51	10.43	4.64
MIN	1-4	0.39	3.79	1.91	0.82	0.36	0.17
NYG	3-2	20.73	38.51	20.53	8.68	3.69	1.66
OAK	3-2	33.15	49.86	28.92	12.92	5.77	2.47
DAL	2-2	23.93	41.48	21.69	8.94	3.71	1.64
NYJ	2-3	4.19	12.24	6.49	2.85	1.26	0.52
PHI	1-4	4.93	9.81	4.45	1.77	0.72	0.31
CAR	1-4	3.01	6.14	2.64	1.01	0.40	0.17
CHI	2-3	0.56	5.49	2.56	1.00	0.40	0.17
CLE	2-2	4.85	12.42	6.37	2.60	1.06	0.41
ARI	1-4	2.33	5.39	2.21	0.83	0.31	0.12
ATL	2-3	5.95	12.63	5.41	1.98	0.74	0.29
SEA	2-3	5.50	17.16	7.32	2.67	0.98	0.38
DEN	1-4	1.79	4.05	1.74	0.66	0.25	0.09
MIA	0-4	0.41	1.27	0.54	0.20	0.08	0.03
TB	3-2	13.31	23.87	9.90	3.38	1.17	0.43
IND	0-5	0.60	0.79	0.30	0.11	0.04	0.01
STL	0-4	0.72	1.55	0.55	0.17	0.06	0.02
KC	2-3	2.79	5.51	2.12	0.69	0.23	0.07
JAC	1-4	1.93	2.66	0.97	0.32	0.11	0.03

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 6

We're still a week away from any offical BCS standings, but my computer rankings have officially put LSU at #1.  I've got Alabama at #2, so the top of the AP poll matches.  Oklahoma is #1 in the USA Today poll, #3 in the AP poll, and all the way down to #13 in my rankings.  On a side note: I need a name for my ranking system, because it feels repetitive to keep saying variations of "my computer ranking system".  I'll be interested to see what the dispassionate BCS computers have to say about Oklahoma and any other teams I have ranked far outside the poll average.

As for Mizzou, hey, at least we're still in the 2nd tercile.

1	LSU	6-0
2	Alabama	6-0
3	Clemson	6-0
4	Michigan	6-0
5	Illinois	6-0
6	Georgia Tech	6-0
7	Houston	6-0
8	Penn State	5-1
9	North Carolina	5-1
10	Boise State	5-0
11	West Virginia	5-1
12	Nebraska	5-1
13	Oklahoma	5-0
14	Oklahoma State	5-0
15	Wisconsin	5-0
16	Virginia Tech	5-1
17	South Carolina	5-1
18	Arizona State	5-1
19	Kansas State	5-0
20	Arkansas	5-1
21	Stanford	5-0
22	Louisiana-Lafayette	5-1
23	Southern Miss	5-1
24	Texas	4-1
25	Notre Dame	4-2
26	Georgia	4-2
27	Rutgers	4-1
28	Baylor	4-1
29	South Florida	4-1
30	Washington	4-1
31	Auburn	4-2
32	TCU	4-2
33	Southern Methodist	4-1
34	USC	4-1
35	Syracuse	4-2
36	Western Michigan	4-2
37	Texas Tech	4-1
38	Wake Forest	4-1
39	Brigham Young	4-2
40	Michigan State	4-1
41	Oregon	4-1
42	Florida	4-2
43	Temple	4-2
44	Florida International	4-2
45	Cincinnati	4-1
46	Arkansas State	4-2
47	Toledo	3-3
48	Texas A&M	3-2
49	Iowa State	3-2
50	Pittsburgh	3-3
51	Vanderbilt	3-2
52	Ohio	4-2
53	Tennessee	3-2
54	Eastern Michigan	3-3
55	Iowa	3-2
56	Air Force	3-2
57	North Carolina State	3-3
58	Wyoming	3-2
59	San Diego State	3-2
60	UCLA	3-3
61	Virginia	3-2
62	Duke	3-2
63	California	3-2
64	Ball State	3-3
65	UCF	3-2
66	Utah	2-3
67	Ohio State	3-3
68	Bowling Green	3-3
69	Mississippi State	3-3
70	Maryland	2-3
71	Hawaii	3-2
72	Washington State	3-2
73	Kansas	2-3
74	Northern Illinois	3-3
75	Purdue	3-2
76	Marshall	2-4
77	Navy	2-3
78	Tulsa	2-3
79	Miami (FL)	2-3
80	Missouri	2-3
81	Rice	2-3
82	UTEP	2-3
83	Nevada	2-3
84	Louisville	2-3
85	Ole Miss	2-3
86	Utah State	2-3
87	Colorado State	3-2
88	Florida State	2-3
89	Troy	2-3
90	Fresno State	2-4
91	Kentucky	2-4
92	Central Michigan	2-4
93	Louisiana Tech	2-4
94	Connecticut	2-4
95	San Jose State	2-4
96	North Texas	2-4
97	Northwestern	2-3
98	Buffalo	2-4
99	East Carolina	1-4
100	New Mexico State	2-3
101	Kent State	1-5
102	Army	2-4
103	Tulane	2-4
104	Oregon State	1-4
105	Indiana	1-5
106	UNLV	1-4
107	Arizona	1-5
108	Boston College	1-5
109	Louisiana-Monroe	1-4
110	Colorado	1-5
111	Akron	1-5
112	Minnesota	1-5
113	Western Kentucky	1-4
114	Idaho	1-5
115	Miami (OH)	1-4
116	Middle Tennessee	1-4
117	Memphis	1-5
118	Florida Atlantic	0-5
119	New Mexico	0-5
120	UAB	0-5

Trade With Reader Ryan

Without realizing it at the time, I put the kibosh on Ryan's trade offer with Too Many Grandersons when I filled out his 2010 Update set. You can still see my faux pas in the comments.  Luckily, he didn't hold that against me, and contacted me too make a trade.  He wanted a bunch of my spare Heritage and 2010 Update, and saw I had some Series 1 on my want list.  To even it out, he also sent a bunch of Gypsy Queen and Lineage base cards.  I sent him an entire 300ct box, and he sent a huge envelope with 6 or 7 team bags full of cards, so I'll just cover the highlights here.

All the 2011 Heritage were base cards, so here's the only one with a playoff team

The 2011 Topps were also all base cards, so again, here's one from a playoff team.

The only Cardinal of the 2011 Lineage base cards. I really like this set. I foresee a few blaster purchases.

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen SPs, to represent the dozens of base cards.

Four 2011 Gypsy Queen Wall Climbers

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen Future Stars

2011 Gypsy Queen Sticky Fingers Pudge

Two 2011 Gypsy Queen Minis of two Cardinal greats. But wait, didn't I already have the Schoendienst Mini, and its Green Border couterpart?

The Red Schoendienst is the Red Back Mini.  At this point I feel like I should go for the whole 2011 GQ "Rainbow" of Red.

2009 Upper Deck A Piece of History

2008 Upper Deck Masterpieces

Two David Freese Rookie Cards, the hero of Game 4.  2009 Topps and 2009 Topps 206.

And now, I see that I've let my Want List and Trade List get woefully out of date.  I've got lots of unsorted cards lying around.  I'm working on getting them entered into Zistle.com, and hopefully exporting the resulting want and trade lists to a nice format.  I'm starting with any and all 2011 cards, and hopefully I'll be able to get them all in before the first 2012s come out.  Then I'll try to keep up with 2012 while working back through 2010 and beyond.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 5

ESPN didn't post their Division II/III results until today, which is why this is late.

Clemson obviously isn't getting the respect they deserve, as they climb to #1 in my rankings but are #8 in both polls this week.  LSU's weak opponent dropped them down a notch despite the win, and Michigan moves up to #2.  I've noticed my system favors a 5-0 team much more than a 4-0 team, but frankly I think that's how it should be.

1	Clemson	5-0
2	Michigan	5-0
3	Alabama	5-0
4	LSU	5-0
5	Illinois	5-0
6	Georgia Tech	5-0
7	Wisconsin	5-0
8	Houston	5-0
9	North Carolina	4-1
10	West Virginia	4-1
11	Nebraska	4-1
12	Penn State	4-1
13	South Florida	4-1
14	Texas	4-0
15	South Carolina	4-1
16	Virginia Tech	4-1
17	Oklahoma State	4-0
18	Oklahoma	4-0
19	Boise State	4-0
20	Washington	4-1
21	Stanford	4-0
22	Arizona State	4-1
23	Kansas State	4-0
24	Auburn	4-1
25	USC	4-1
26	Michigan State	4-1
27	Southern Methodist	4-1
28	Texas Tech	4-0
29	Ohio	4-1
30	Florida	4-1
31	Louisiana-Lafayette	4-1
32	Arkansas	4-1
33	Southern Miss	4-1
34	Notre Dame	3-2
35	Cincinnati	4-1
36	Iowa State	3-1
37	Rutgers	3-1
38	Georgia	3-2
39	Iowa	3-1
40	Vanderbilt	3-1
41	Pittsburgh	3-2
42	Wyoming	3-1
43	Tennessee	3-1
44	Eastern Michigan	3-2
45	TCU	3-2
46	San Diego State	3-1
47	Baylor	3-1
48	Syracuse	3-2
49	Air Force	3-1
50	Western Michigan	3-2
51	California	3-1
52	Virginia	3-2
53	Brigham Young	3-2
54	Florida International	3-2
54	Duke	3-2
56	Wake Forest	3-1
57	Ball State	3-2
58	Washington State	3-1
59	Oregon	3-1
60	Arkansas State	3-2
61	Ohio State	3-2
62	Temple	3-2
63	Bowling Green	3-2
64	Utah	2-2
65	Marshall	2-3
66	Hawaii	3-2
67	Kansas	2-2
68	Texas A&M	2-2
69	Maryland	2-2
70	Toledo	2-3
71	Miami (FL)	2-2
72	North Carolina State	2-3
73	Navy	2-2
74	Tulsa	2-3
75	Missouri	2-2
76	UCLA	2-3
77	UTEP	2-3
78	Ole Miss	2-3
79	Florida State	2-2
80	Louisville	2-2
81	Mississippi State	2-3
82	Fresno State	2-3
83	Troy	2-2
84	Colorado State	3-2
85	Central Michigan	2-3
86	Kentucky	2-3
87	Northwestern	2-2
88	Northern Illinois	2-3
89	Army	2-3
90	Connecticut	2-3
91	UCF	2-2
92	San Jose State	2-3
93	Purdue	2-2
94	Kent State	1-4
95	New Mexico State	2-3
96	Rice	1-3
97	Nevada	1-3
98	Tulane	2-3
99	UNLV	1-3
100	East Carolina	1-3
101	Arizona	1-4
102	North Texas	1-4
103	Utah State	1-3
104	Louisiana Tech	1-4
105	Colorado	1-4
106	Louisiana-Monroe	1-3
107	Idaho	1-4
108	Minnesota	1-4
109	Indiana	1-4
110	Middle Tennessee	1-3
111	Akron	1-4
112	Buffalo	1-4
113	Boston College	1-4
114	Memphis	1-4
115	Florida Atlantic	0-4
116	Oregon State	0-4
117	Western Kentucky	0-4
118	New Mexico	0-5
119	Miami (OH)	0-4
120	UAB	0-4

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 4

Baltimore over Detroit.

Baltimore's convincing win and Buffalo's loss brought the Ravens to the top of the pack in the AFC.  Detroit is being chased by Green Bay, but they still hold the top of the NFC.  Their two divisional games should clear up a lot.  There were no new 10% milestones this week.  The worst-positioned team is Indianapolis, but even they still hold a 1.40% chance of at least a playoff berth.  The Rams still make me sad.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	3-1	65.63	79.84	63.38	35.77	19.90	11.00
DET	4-0	48.33	84.54	66.20	36.46	20.15	10.73
TEN	3-1	45.75	74.12	53.50	28.31	14.85	7.81
HOU	3-1	51.98	74.37	53.94	28.32	14.76	7.71
GB	4-0	47.40	84.80	65.10	34.38	18.30	9.42
BUF	3-1	43.17	67.07	47.71	24.32	12.22	6.22
NE	3-1	41.87	68.39	48.65	24.73	12.40	6.29
WAS	3-1	44.03	64.17	44.59	22.61	11.26	5.56
NO	3-1	49.54	63.03	42.71	21.49	10.65	5.23
SF	3-1	76.41	79.67	52.18	25.98	12.75	6.19
NYG	3-1	32.82	53.70	35.27	17.01	8.08	3.81
TB	3-1	35.85	50.79	31.49	14.80	6.86	3.17
CIN	2-2	18.19	37.62	22.51	10.38	4.79	2.24
SD	3-1	56.89	64.71	39.94	18.21	8.26	3.84
NYJ	2-2	14.27	27.80	16.22	7.41	3.37	1.56
PHI	1-3	6.02	11.79	6.21	2.80	1.26	0.56
ARI	1-3	15.49	20.69	10.33	4.65	2.10	0.93
OAK	2-2	32.07	41.73	22.80	9.99	4.38	1.97
DAL	2-2	17.14	31.07	17.99	8.07	3.58	1.58
CHI	2-2	4.03	16.84	9.30	4.14	1.87	0.82
PIT	2-2	9.07	22.75	12.04	5.10	2.17	0.93
CAR	1-3	5.40	8.33	4.06	1.73	0.74	0.31
ATL	2-2	9.21	17.61	9.18	3.89	1.64	0.69
MIN	0-4	0.24	1.63	0.77	0.32	0.13	0.05
CLE	2-2	7.12	17.33	8.83	3.59	1.46	0.60
DEN	1-3	7.49	11.58	5.31	2.06	0.80	0.32
MIA	0-4	0.69	1.59	0.68	0.26	0.10	0.04
SEA	1-3	5.98	8.80	3.68	1.36	0.51	0.19
IND	0-4	0.56	1.40	0.58	0.21	0.08	0.03
JAC	1-3	1.71	4.30	1.81	0.63	0.22	0.08
STL	0-4	2.12	2.53	0.92	0.32	0.11	0.04
KC	1-3	3.56	5.41	2.09	0.70	0.23	0.08

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Detroit
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit

eBay Wins #4

1 card.

1 cent.

1991 Donruss Dana Kiecker

How can anyone resist $0.01 shipped, for any card in decent shape?  I guess the key thing is I got there first, and lots of people can resist $0.06 for a 1991 Donruss common.

Another Trade with Too Many Grandersons

It's taken me just under a year since my re-entry to baseball card collecting, but I've completed my first set, thanks to the second 2010 Topps Update trade with Too Many Grandersons.  The missing card was of last night's hero, Evan Longoria.

Since I really owed Dennis from our last trade, when I saw he posted his second 2010 Update box break, I immediately stepped in to fill out set #2 for him. He insisted upon sending me something though, which was the final card I needed above, and these guys, all also pseudo-involved in big games last night:

1-3 with a walk, and no reason to be playing really.

On the Yankees now, but did not play

On the Red Sox now, also did not play

I'm sure others have noticed this, but when I got around to sorting my 2010 Update, I noticed the foil printing around the player names was misaligned on a large number of them.  These 3 replace 3 cards for which I didn't quite have the "perfect" cards.

A big thanks to Dennis for the completed set!

Two Contests to Promote

First, Ryan at The Great Orioles Autograph Project is running a contest where you fill out an MLB postseason bracket.  Promote it on your blog and you can fill out an extra entry.

I think every blog in my list has already promoted this one, but The Card Hobbyist is having his first contest as well, which is going to last through all of October.  Get over there now for an early entry and promote it for two more.

Also, SpastikMooss at The Great Sports Name Hall of Fame is selling off some hits and trade bait to fund his purchase of a Seneca Wallace 1/1.  It's not a contest, but he's got some cool stuff, so go help him out if anything looks good.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 3

Detroit over Buffalo

Two of the undefeated teams are projected to make the Superbowl.  Detroit is looking awfully strong, but they do have 2 games against the defending champs left to go. The next few weeks should be interesting.  On a personal note, the Rams make me sad.  At least Buffalo's got former Ram Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way.  Also, did you know you can form a grammatically correct sentence using only the word Buffalo from 1 to an  infinite number of times? It's true.

Assuming there are any 0-4 teams next week, I'll add the Andrew Luck projection.
In addition to my projections, I'll keep track of certain milestones by each team.

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Detroit
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	3-0	52.90	81.15	64.80	36.37	20.39	11.07
BAL	2-1	48.35	64.42	48.13	26.54	14.51	7.91
BUF	3-0	51.77	73.73	57.34	30.28	15.85	8.29
HOU	2-1	50.73	63.66	44.46	23.19	12.03	6.26
NYJ	2-1	24.00	45.37	30.81	15.70	7.99	4.07
SF	2-1	62.01	68.21	45.93	23.61	12.01	6.05
GB	3-0	41.44	76.15	56.05	28.58	14.71	7.40
TEN	2-1	39.36	57.01	38.49	19.48	9.81	4.97
NE	2-1	22.75	47.55	31.84	16.07	8.10	4.10
WAS	2-1	32.87	51.88	35.68	17.99	8.93	4.42
NYG	2-1	27.66	45.31	30.58	15.21	7.45	3.64
NO	2-1	42.81	54.39	36.07	17.85	8.75	4.27
OAK	2-1	47.04	58.11	37.56	18.04	8.63	4.20
CIN	1-2	13.74	25.44	15.43	7.34	3.47	1.66
ARI	1-2	23.71	33.13	19.16	9.15	4.35	2.05
DAL	2-1	28.22	45.23	30.02	14.32	6.72	3.15
PHI	1-2	11.26	20.84	12.52	5.93	2.78	1.30
TB	2-1	33.47	45.48	28.30	13.31	6.20	2.89
CLE	2-1	18.83	35.17	21.97	10.20	4.72	2.21
PIT	2-1	19.09	36.12	22.30	10.34	4.78	2.24
SD	2-1	34.30	44.51	26.55	12.09	5.49	2.53
DEN	1-2	15.94	24.73	13.79	6.26	2.84	1.31
CAR	1-2	13.91	19.84	10.88	4.92	2.22	0.99
CHI	1-2	4.28	14.64	8.16	3.69	1.69	0.75
MIN	0-3	1.39	5.68	2.96	1.31	0.59	0.26
ATL	1-2	9.82	16.58	8.92	3.88	1.69	0.73
MIA	0-3	1.49	3.80	1.89	0.79	0.33	0.14
IND	0-3	2.70	4.40	1.98	0.80	0.32	0.13
JAC	1-2	7.21	11.74	5.62	2.20	0.86	0.34
SEA	1-2	9.63	15.17	7.21	2.83	1.10	0.43
STL	0-3	4.65	6.32	2.78	1.08	0.42	0.16
KC	0-3	2.72	4.25	1.82	0.68	0.25	0.10

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

See my last post for an explanation of how these work.

With 14 4-0 teams, it's still a little early in the season for meaningful ranking, but I'll do it nonetheless.  I suppose that's the real reason the BCS waits until later in the season to release its first rankings.  Otherwise the computers would be all over the place like mine.  Good news for Mizzou, they now have future games against #1 and #9, which will certainly boost their strength of schedule.  Now if they can just work on the Winning Percentage.

1	Nebraska	4-0
2	LSU	4-0
3	Michigan	4-0
4	South Carolina	4-0
5	South Florida	4-0
6	Alabama	4-0
7	Illinois	4-0
8	Clemson	4-0
9	Oklahoma State	4-0
10	Virginia Tech	4-0
11	Georgia Tech	4-0
12	Houston	4-0
13	Wisconsin	4-0
14	Florida	4-0
15	Penn State	3-1
16	North Carolina	3-1
17	Iowa State	3-0
18	Wyoming	3-1
19	Arizona State	3-1
20	Vanderbilt	3-1
21	USC	3-1
22	West Virginia	3-1
23	Iowa	3-1
24	Texas	3-0
24	Baylor	3-0
26	Louisiana-Lafayette	3-1
27	Oklahoma	3-0
28	Boise State	3-0
29	Florida International	3-1
30	TCU	3-1
31	Washington	3-1
32	Syracuse	3-1
33	Southern Methodist	3-1
34	California	3-1
35	San Diego State	3-1
36	Stanford	3-0
37	Auburn	3-1
38	Texas Tech	3-0
39	Kansas State	3-0
40	Temple	3-1
41	Cincinnati	3-1
42	Bowling Green	3-1
43	Ball State	3-1
44	Michigan State	3-1
45	Oregon	3-1
46	Ohio	3-1
47	Southern Miss	3-1
48	Ohio State	3-1
49	Arkansas	3-1
50	Notre Dame	2-2
51	Utah	2-1
52	Tennessee	2-1
53	Texas A&M	2-1
54	Kansas	2-1
55	Georgia	2-2
56	Eastern Michigan	2-2
57	Navy	2-1
58	Louisville	2-1
59	Rutgers	2-1
60	Colorado State	3-1
61	Wake Forest	2-1
62	Fresno State	2-2
63	Washington State	2-1
64	Virginia	2-2
65	Air Force	2-1
66	Pittsburgh	2-2
67	Western Michigan	2-2
68	Brigham Young	2-2
69	Arkansas State	2-2
70	Mississippi State	2-2
71	North Carolina State	2-2
72	Duke	2-2
73	Connecticut	2-2
74	Northern Illinois	2-2
75	Florida State	2-2
76	UCLA	2-2
77	UTEP	2-2
78	Missouri	2-2
79	Kentucky	2-2
80	Hawaii	2-2
81	Northwestern	2-1
82	UCF	2-2
83	Purdue	2-1
84	Marshall	1-3
85	Kent State	1-3
86	Tulane	2-2
87	Rice	1-2
88	Toledo	1-3
89	Tulsa	1-3
90	Arizona	1-3
91	Maryland	1-2
92	North Texas	1-3
93	Utah State	1-2
94	East Carolina	1-2
95	Miami (FL)	1-2
96	UNLV	1-3
97	Colorado	1-3
98	Nevada	1-2
99	Troy	1-2
100	Army	1-3
101	Idaho	1-3
102	Ole Miss	1-3
103	Louisiana Tech	1-3
104	Louisiana-Monroe	1-3
105	Central Michigan	1-3
106	Akron	1-3
107	Memphis	1-3
108	Indiana	1-3
109	Boston College	1-3
110	Buffalo	1-3
111	San Jose State	1-3
112	Minnesota	1-3
113	New Mexico State	1-3
114	Florida Atlantic	0-3
115	Western Kentucky	0-3
116	New Mexico	0-4
117	Oregon State	0-3
118	Middle Tennessee	0-3
119	UAB	0-3
120	Miami (OH)	0-3

Topps Prime 9; Week 9

I sure have dragged out a contest win for 2 stinkin cards over a ridiculously long time.

The Win - From September 8
Week 8 - From September 16

I've tried to space my posts out and the NFL projections and NCAA rankings have been taking up Sunday(ish) and Tuesday.  Anyway, enough about my first-world problems.  On to the card!

Sweet, Sandy Koufax.  I picked up this card last Saturday at the LCS, then helped a buddy move across town from about 2pm till 11pm, including a few U-Haul trips. I'll avoid the obvious joke about the juxtaposition of Koufax and me doing work on Saturday.

Due to a little time crunch I didn't return to One Million Baseball Cards as originally planned, but went to the more local shop that had been closed the previous Saturday.  This happens to be the same shop I first went to as a 10 year old kid in 1992, although it has moved locations.  I recall it being pretty organized before, even though it was stuffed with stacks and stacks of long card boxes.  I also went to the new location back in 1998.  I know this because I distinctly remember asking if they had any Nomar Garciaparra Diamond Ink Points.  Again, it was pretty well organized.

This time, however, I was almost uncomfortable shopping in the store because it was so cluttered.  I think there was an open hobby box of just about every product from the last 5 years sitting on the counters, some stacked on top of others.  There were stacks of singles sitting out, with no discernible price labels anywhere around.  The back of the store had some taken-apart shelving sitting in the middle of the walkway.  I think part of my discomfort was knowing I could easily knock over a stack of cards almost anywhere, bending them and feeling liable.  I was determined to buy something, though, as a thank you for the shop partaking in the Prime 9 promotion, so I grabbed a 300ct cardboard box for a huge outgoing trade, and a pack of 2011 Lineage.

I won't name the shop here since I don't want to give them bad press if anyone in the area does a Google search on the name, but I don't think I'll be returning there anytime soon, at least not to browse.  I suppose if I knew exactly what I wanted it'd do the job.

Man, that ended on a downer. I know! Play me out, keyboard cat!

Much...better?

Catching up on Contests

A while back I won a contest at Play at the Plate.  The prize was a rack pack of 2011 Lineage.  Let's get ripping!

There are 14 cards in the pack. First, the 12 base cards.

I like the mix of current stars and Hall of Famers. Topps did a nice job taking old and new photos and making them fit into the same look.  I haven't seen enough cards to know exactly what they're doing with the logos in the corner, but it looks like they went with era-appropriate logos, as I see 2 different Yankees logos, and the Brooklyn Dodgers.

The Cabrera is perforated, but I can never bring myself to break the perforations and stand up the card as designed.  Maybe if it was a Cardinal and I knew I wanted to keep it, but who knows, he may go out in a trade some day.

I'm assuming the Aaron is a Platinum Parallel, as it doesn't look like the Topps flagship Diamond Parallels.  If anyone thinks it's a different parallel (the small print on the packs is so hard to read) let me know in the comments.

All in all, there were no big hits in the pack, but it was cool to win a contest and get a taste of a set I probably wouldn't have seen otherwise.  I think I may try to complete the full set, especially since it's only 200 cards.  

Thanks again to Play at the Plate!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 2

After 2 full weeks and 100,000,000 simulations of the remainder of the season and playoffs, the Superbowl will be:

Detroit over Houston.

I don't think anyone would have seen that coming last year.

There is a curious hitch in the numbers this week.  Even though Detroit has a greater shot of getting to the Superbowl (16.47% to 16.26%) than Houston, and is a stronger team, Houston is more likely to win the Superbowl (8.77% to 8.76%).  What is likely happening is that Detroit is winning slightly more than half of the DET-HOU Superbowl matchups, but its next most likely opponents - New York, Buffalo, New England, Baltimore - are all stronger than Houston's alternative opponents - Washington, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Green Bay - with Tennessee also better than 3 of those 4.  Thus, I've tweaked my prediction style.  I'll determine the Superbowl participants from the top NFC and AFC teams (highest numbers in the "Semi" column), then match them against each other to determine the predicted winner.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	2-0	46.18	69.46	54.40	29.99	16.47	8.76
HOU	2-0	61.14	73.30	56.17	30.43	16.26	8.77
NYJ	2-0	33.71	58.56	43.73	23.26	12.35	6.59
BUF	2-0	31.62	56.68	41.81	21.98	11.54	6.09
NE	2-0	32.45	57.40	42.01	21.72	11.23	5.85
BAL	1-1	33.66	46.48	31.11	15.79	7.96	4.09
WAS	2-0	46.47	65.05	48.95	25.42	13.04	6.56
TEN	1-1	23.33	41.10	26.76	13.48	6.76	3.45
SF	1-1	42.89	52.34	34.28	17.38	8.78	4.35
PHI	1-1	22.46	38.94	26.24	13.33	6.73	3.34
GB	2-0	34.25	60.45	43.74	22.09	11.18	5.52
CIN	1-1	29.01	41.15	26.53	13.02	6.36	3.17
NO	1-1	36.06	45.63	29.28	14.51	7.17	3.49
ARI	1-1	39.04	49.28	31.44	15.54	7.66	3.71
CHI	1-1	14.80	32.31	20.76	10.08	4.91	2.33
DAL	1-1	17.72	33.41	21.72	10.51	5.06	2.39
OAK	1-1	34.18	42.63	25.78	12.15	5.71	2.75
DEN	1-1	27.66	37.97	23.09	10.83	5.07	2.43
CLE	1-1	19.57	31.68	19.49	9.14	4.27	2.04
NYG	1-1	13.36	28.06	17.66	8.46	4.03	1.89
TB	1-1	28.29	37.40	22.79	10.81	5.12	2.39
PIT	1-1	17.76	28.94	17.48	8.07	3.71	1.75
SD	1-1	28.96	36.57	21.31	9.74	4.44	2.08
MIN	0-2	4.77	12.30	7.12	3.28	1.52	0.68
ATL	1-1	23.44	32.24	19.00	8.68	3.96	1.78
CAR	0-2	12.21	16.49	8.94	4.07	1.86	0.83
MIA	0-2	2.23	6.52	3.54	1.54	0.68	0.30
STL	0-2	10.27	14.24	7.34	3.17	1.37	0.58
IND	0-2	4.02	8.37	4.22	1.77	0.75	0.32
JAC	1-1	11.52	20.20	10.90	4.59	1.92	0.82
SEA	0-2	7.80	12.40	6.34	2.68	1.13	0.47
KC	0-2	9.20	12.47	6.08	2.48	1.01	0.42

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules state margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially sort the teams by record (so all the 3-0 teams are tied at #1 this week), then judge the strength of schedule based on the current rankings of the opponents, and resort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or up to 10,000 times.

If 10,000 iterations happen with no convergence, I search for a loop, that is, a number of iterations that return the results to the initial condition.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each iteration will fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site., which includes all Division I, II, and III schools.  I then filter the final results to only the 120 FBS schools.

The Rankings tend to fluctuate wildly near the beginning of the season, but congrats Too Many Grandersons, your Wolverines are on at #2 this week (I don't know any NC fans, and they may miss the postseason either way this year.)

1	North Carolina	3-0
2	Michigan	3-0
3	Nebraska	3-0
4	USC	3-0
5	Iowa State	3-0
6	West Virginia	3-0
7	Illinois	3-0
8	San Diego State	3-0
9	Oklahoma State	3-0
10	South Florida	3-0
11	LSU	3-0
12	Florida International	3-0
13	Vanderbilt	3-0
14	Clemson	3-0
15	South Carolina	3-0
16	Georgia Tech	3-0
17	Wyoming	3-0
18	Ohio	3-0
19	Texas	3-0
20	Virginia Tech	3-0
21	California	3-0
22	Alabama	3-0
23	Florida	3-0
24	Wisconsin	3-0
25	Houston	3-0
26	Stanford	3-0
27	Iowa	2-1
28	Arkansas	3-0
29	Louisville	2-1
30	Penn State	2-1
31	Tennessee	2-1
32	Texas A&M	2-0
33	Utah	2-1
34	Arizona State	2-1
35	Oklahoma	2-0
36	Virginia	2-1
37	Wake Forest	2-1
38	Baylor	2-0
39	Eastern Michigan	2-1
40	Southern Methodist	2-1
41	North Carolina State	2-1
42	Washington State	2-1
43	Syracuse	2-1
44	Pittsburgh	2-1
45	Boise State	2-0
46	Auburn	2-1
47	Kansas	2-1
48	Navy	2-1
49	TCU	2-1
50	Western Michigan	2-1
51	Ball State	2-1
52	Bowling Green	2-1
53	Kansas State	2-0
54	Louisiana-Lafayette	2-1
55	Texas Tech	2-0
56	Oregon	2-1
57	Washington	2-1
58	Kentucky	2-1
59	Michigan State	2-1
60	Missouri	2-1
61	UTEP	2-1
62	Florida State	2-1
63	Southern Miss	2-1
64	UCF	2-1
65	Tulane	2-1
66	Cincinnati	2-1
67	Temple	2-1
68	Ohio State	2-1
69	Purdue	2-1
70	Northwestern	2-1
70	Notre Dame	1-2
72	Marshall	1-2
73	Colorado State	2-1
74	Rice	1-1
75	Maryland	1-1
76	Tulsa	1-2
77	Georgia	1-2
78	Air Force	1-1
79	Connecticut	1-2
80	Fresno State	1-2
81	Rutgers	1-1
82	Northern Illinois	1-2
83	Brigham Young	1-2
83	Arizona	1-2
85	Utah State	1-1
86	Arkansas State	1-2
87	Miami (FL)	1-1
88	UNLV	1-2
89	Army	1-2
90	Mississippi State	1-2
91	Idaho	1-2
92	New Mexico State	1-2
93	UCLA	1-2
94	Louisiana Tech	1-2
95	Indiana	1-2
96	Toledo	1-2
97	Duke	1-2
98	Colorado	1-2
99	Ole Miss	1-2
100	Nevada	1-1
101	Central Michigan	1-2
102	Louisiana-Monroe	1-2
103	Buffalo	1-2
104	Hawaii	1-2
105	Minnesota	1-2
106	Memphis	1-2
107	East Carolina	0-2
108	Troy	0-2
109	North Texas	0-3
110	Florida Atlantic	0-2
111	UAB	0-2
112	Middle Tennessee	0-2
113	Kent State	0-3
114	Western Kentucky	0-3
115	New Mexico	0-3
116	Oregon State	0-2
117	Miami (OH)	0-2
118	Akron	0-3
119	San Jose State	0-3
120	Boston College	0-3

Topps Prime 9; Week 8

As I showed last week, Matt F. at Heartbreaking Cards of Staggering Genius sent me 2 Topps Prime 9 Redemptions.  Week 8 was September 5-11, so I turned the first one into:

I wound up on a bit of a chase to get this card.  With Labor Day on the 5th, 2 nights of school a week, and no shops I can get to conveniently at my lunch break, I didn't even attempt to redeem this until Saturday.  My favorite shop wasn't participating, but no worries, another familiar one nearby was.  As I pulled up to the store, I saw a handwritten sign on the door: "Closed Sep. 10th for a Family Event".  I checked the hours on the door, and nothing was listed for Sunday.

That sent me home to search the internet and call around to find someone in the area who would redeem the card.  The first store I called answered the phone with a simple "Hello?", making me think I had reached a home by accident.  But no, his business phone skills were just a bit lacking.  He said his place wasn't participating, so I went to the next one on my list. One Million Baseball Cards was in fact participating, but they closed at 5pm and weren't open Sunday, so I had to hurry. The store was pretty cool, and had a great selection of all sports, and tons of baseball.  Unfortunately by the time I got there I was in a bit of a hurry, so didn't get to look around for too long.  I saw a huge box of Heritage and Gypsy Queen singles, so I think my wantlist and I will make the slightly longer trek out there this week as well - and build in some time to browse.

Your Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 1

Baltimore over San Francisco.

Perhaps I should explain.  For a long time, I've followed sportsclubstats for a statistical view of the Cardinals chances at making the playoffs.  They basically determine a strength for each team, and simulate the remainder of the season lots of times, then aggregate the results and see what percentage of the simulations resulted in a team making the playoffs.  There are lots of leagues covered, including the NFL.

Unfortunately, the playoffs are not simulated, so I set out to write my own software.  I use a similar formula as sportsclubstats, based on points scored and points allowed, to determine team strength.  Then I simulate the remaining games of the season, run the NFL's complex tiebreakers, and simulate the 11 playoffs games, at least 10 million times.  My software generates a nice table with the chances of a team going anywhere from 0-16 to 16-0, but that table is too wide for blogger, so I might have to flip the axes and split it up by division or something.

Following is the easy format for now.  The columns represent the chances of winning the division, making the playoffs (so, winning the division OR getting a wildcard berth), winning in the Wildcard Round (which includes getting a first round bye), winning in the conference semifinals, winning the conference championship, and winning the Superbowl.  The teams are sorted by strength, so as you can see, even though Buffalo is the strongest team, they face a tougher schedule than Baltimore, and those diminished playoff chances result in Baltimore getting more Superbowl wins per simulation.  I typically say the Superbowl favorite is the one with the highest number in the Champ column, and the Superbowl loser is the team from the opposing conference with the highest value in the Semi column.

Team	Rec	Div	Playoffs	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BUF	1-0	33.67	51.15	36.44	19.02	9.90	5.17
BAL	1-0	41.96	57.45	40.94	21.36	11.11	5.80
HOU	1-0	43.39	57.05	40.22	20.96	10.90	5.68
CHI	1-0	32.94	52.57	38.25	19.99	10.40	5.36
PHI	1-0	37.31	54.55	39.23	20.46	10.66	5.48
WAS	1-0	38.52	55.23	39.43	20.46	10.59	5.42
SF	1-0	41.40	58.02	41.82	21.66	11.18	5.72
CIN	1-0	37.35	53.20	36.76	18.68	9.48	4.83
NE	1-0	32.31	49.29	34.21	17.39	8.82	4.50
SD	1-0	36.85	50.63	34.78	17.50	8.78	4.44
DET	1-0	28.22	47.40	33.39	16.92	8.55	4.28
ARI	1-0	35.27	52.93	37.22	18.81	9.48	4.74
GB	1-0	28.14	47.26	33.12	16.65	8.34	4.15
OAK	1-0	36.14	50.20	33.82	16.71	8.24	4.10
JAC	1-0	33.75	47.94	31.85	15.74	7.77	3.86
NYJ	1-0	25.39	41.15	27.61	13.64	6.73	3.34
DAL	0-1	14.51	25.98	16.34	7.95	3.87	1.86
TEN	0-1	13.10	22.75	13.65	6.57	3.17	1.53
DEN	0-1	14.18	24.46	14.83	7.12	3.42	1.66
NO	0-1	27.20	32.87	19.22	9.20	4.40	2.10
CAR	0-1	25.80	31.15	18.10	8.61	4.10	1.95
TB	0-1	25.25	30.82	17.89	8.50	4.04	1.92
MIN	0-1	10.71	21.86	13.66	6.52	3.11	1.47
MIA	0-1	8.64	17.51	10.41	4.88	2.29	1.08
CLE	0-1	11.15	20.83	12.28	5.75	2.70	1.27
SEA	0-1	10.95	21.46	12.85	6.00	2.80	1.30
NYG	0-1	9.66	19.10	11.38	5.31	2.49	1.15
STL	0-1	12.38	21.95	13.06	6.05	2.81	1.29
ATL	0-1	21.76	26.85	15.04	6.92	3.19	1.47
IND	0-1	9.75	17.60	9.98	4.55	2.08	0.96
PIT	0-1	9.54	18.19	10.42	4.76	2.18	1.00
KC	0-1	12.82	20.60	11.80	5.37	2.44	1.12

Note too that with 1 of 16 games played, the best and worst teams are not too far separated in strength, as the strength rating counts more as more games are played.  This keeps the weekly numbers from fluctuating wildly, and keeps big early season victories from causing me to claim a team has a 50% chance at the Superbowl.

Hopefully I can come up with a way to include more stats in my weekly projection posts, either by stacking them vertically or widening my template.  

A Prime 9 Contest Win

Matt F. at Heartbreaking Cards of Staggering Genius held a contest to guess what card this crop is from:

He did give the hint that it was from 1987 Topps.  I quickly went to the Diamond Giveaway site and started searching for a belt and a leg/torso at that angle.  I settled on:

1987 Topps #550 Pete Incaviglia

For my trouble, he sent me these Topps Prime 9 redemption cards.  It seemed kind of silly to re-scan, so here's his scan:

I haven't redeemed #8 yet, but I found my local participating shop.  I'll pick up my surprise card (ok, it's Ichiro) on Saturday.

A big thanks to Matt F. for the contest.