Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 4, Thursday

San Francisco over Miami

I was surprised to see Detroit beat Green Bay on Thursday night, until I heard that this makes 4 in a row. Division rivalries are weird in the NFL. San Francisco remains atop the NFC, and with no AFC action, Miami does the same for their conference.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	3-0	0.572	64.6	84.3	58.6	32.5	17.8	9.5
MIA	3-0	0.563	56.5	86.3	60.0	32.4	17.2	9.1
CLE	2-1	0.574	46.5	76.1	49.4	27.2	14.7	8.0
BUF	2-1	0.579	33.5	72.3	46.7	25.8	14.2	7.7
KC	2-1	0.567	65.0	77.7	49.9	27.0	14.4	7.7
DAL	2-1	0.574	38.9	68.6	43.7	24.2	13.3	7.1
PHI	3-0	0.543	46.6	77.4	49.4	25.7	13.2	6.6
DET	3-1	0.541	65.9	78.5	47.6	24.6	12.5	6.3
BAL	2-1	0.532	30.4	60.6	34.8	17.4	8.6	4.3
IND	2-1	0.507	48.4	64.1	35.0	16.5	7.7	3.6
NO	2-1	0.508	34.9	55.6	30.1	14.3	6.8	3.2
ATL	2-1	0.502	35.1	57.4	30.7	14.5	6.8	3.1
GB	2-2	0.507	24.1	47.3	24.4	11.6	5.5	2.6
TB	2-1	0.498	27.5	48.8	25.6	11.9	5.5	2.5
SEA	2-1	0.498	16.1	45.6	24.0	11.2	5.2	2.4
PIT	2-1	0.472	18.7	47.5	23.6	10.2	4.4	1.9
LAR	1-2	0.514	9.0	32.1	16.7	8.0	3.9	1.8
ARI	1-2	0.509	10.3	29.5	15.3	7.3	3.5	1.6
LAC	1-2	0.498	19.7	33.0	16.3	7.5	3.5	1.6
HOU	1-2	0.487	21.4	35.8	17.4	7.8	3.5	1.6
NE	1-2	0.484	5.7	28.2	13.8	6.1	2.7	1.2
WSH	2-1	0.453	11.4	34.6	16.3	6.9	2.9	1.2
JAX	1-2	0.466	15.0	25.9	11.9	5.1	2.2	0.9
TEN	1-2	0.453	15.2	26.3	11.9	4.9	2.0	0.9
NYJ	1-2	0.455	4.3	20.3	9.3	3.9	1.6	0.7
LV	1-2	0.441	11.4	20.3	8.8	3.6	1.4	0.6
CIN	1-2	0.455	4.3	17.5	7.9	3.3	1.4	0.6
MIN	0-3	0.478	7.1	13.8	6.5	2.9	1.3	0.6
NYG	1-2	0.426	3.1	12.7	5.3	2.1	0.8	0.3
CAR	0-3	0.452	2.5	7.2	3.2	1.3	0.6	0.2
DEN	0-3	0.439	3.9	8.1	3.4	1.4	0.6	0.2
CHI	0-3	0.426	2.9	6.6	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 3, Final

San Francisco over Miami

Nothing much changed based on the results of the Monday Night Football double header. Cincinnati was the only AFC team participating and got their first win, while in the NFC, the LA Rams lost and Philadelphia beat Tampa. Philadelphia is 3-0 but in a competitive division with Dallas, so neither of them has the gaudy early playoff chances of San Francisco.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	3-0	0.572	64.7	84.2	58.6	32.6	17.9	9.5
MIA	3-0	0.563	56.5	86.3	60.0	32.4	17.2	9.2
CLE	2-1	0.574	46.5	76.1	49.4	27.2	14.7	8.0
BUF	2-1	0.579	33.5	72.3	46.8	25.8	14.2	7.8
KC	2-1	0.567	64.7	77.4	49.6	26.9	14.3	7.7
DAL	2-1	0.574	39.2	68.8	43.9	24.3	13.4	7.2
PHI	3-0	0.543	46.5	77.3	49.4	25.7	13.2	6.7
GB	2-1	0.532	48.9	67.3	38.9	19.7	9.8	4.8
BAL	2-1	0.532	30.8	61.0	35.1	17.5	8.6	4.3
DET	2-1	0.517	40.9	59.5	32.9	16.1	7.8	3.7
IND	2-1	0.507	48.4	64.1	35.0	16.5	7.7	3.6
NO	2-1	0.508	35.2	56.0	30.3	14.4	6.9	3.2
ATL	2-1	0.502	34.9	57.1	30.8	14.5	6.8	3.2
TB	2-1	0.498	27.4	48.7	25.5	11.9	5.5	2.5
SEA	2-1	0.498	16.1	45.5	24.0	11.2	5.3	2.4
PIT	2-1	0.472	18.5	47.1	23.4	10.1	4.4	1.9
LAR	1-2	0.514	8.8	31.6	16.5	8.0	3.9	1.8
ARI	1-2	0.509	10.3	29.5	15.3	7.3	3.5	1.7
LAC	1-2	0.498	19.8	33.1	16.3	7.6	3.5	1.6
HOU	1-2	0.487	21.4	35.8	17.4	7.8	3.5	1.6
NE	1-2	0.484	5.7	28.2	13.8	6.1	2.7	1.2
WSH	2-1	0.453	11.4	34.5	16.3	6.9	2.9	1.2
JAX	1-2	0.466	15.0	26.0	11.9	5.1	2.2	0.9
TEN	1-2	0.453	15.2	26.3	11.9	4.9	2.0	0.9
NYJ	1-2	0.455	4.3	20.3	9.3	3.9	1.6	0.7
LV	1-2	0.441	11.5	20.4	8.8	3.6	1.4	0.6
CIN	1-2	0.455	4.3	17.5	7.9	3.3	1.4	0.6
MIN	0-3	0.478	7.3	13.8	6.5	2.9	1.3	0.6
NYG	1-2	0.426	3.0	12.4	5.2	2.0	0.8	0.3
CAR	0-3	0.452	2.5	7.1	3.1	1.3	0.6	0.2
DEN	0-3	0.439	4.0	8.1	3.4	1.4	0.6	0.2
CHI	0-3	0.426	2.8	6.8	2.8	1.1	0.4	0.2

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 3, Sunday

San Francisco over Miami

I expected Dallas to retake their NFC lead after Sunday's games, but instead they lost to lowly Arizona. Another unexpected result was Miami scoring 70, and shooting up to the top of the AFC charts. Buffalo, Cleveland, and Kansas City are actually all slightly stronger teams, but the 3-0 record vs their 2-1 records pushes Miami just a bit over the top.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	3-0	0.572	61.6	83.3	58.1	32.3	17.8	9.5
MIA	3-0	0.563	56.8	86.8	60.4	32.6	17.3	9.2
CLE	2-1	0.574	47.1	76.6	49.6	27.3	14.8	8.0
BUF	2-1	0.579	33.2	72.7	47.0	25.9	14.2	7.8
KC	2-1	0.567	65.0	77.9	50.0	27.1	14.4	7.7
DAL	2-1	0.574	47.3	69.6	44.5	24.7	13.6	7.3
GB	2-1	0.532	48.8	66.2	38.3	19.4	9.7	4.8
TB	2-0	0.526	40.1	66.0	39.5	19.8	9.8	4.8
BAL	2-1	0.532	31.2	61.5	35.3	17.6	8.7	4.4
PHI	2-0	0.518	34.4	60.5	34.8	17.1	8.3	4.0
DET	2-1	0.517	40.9	58.4	32.4	15.9	7.7	3.7
IND	2-1	0.507	48.4	64.1	34.9	16.4	7.6	3.6
NO	2-1	0.508	29.1	53.2	28.8	13.8	6.6	3.1
ATL	2-1	0.502	28.9	54.5	29.4	13.9	6.5	3.0
LAR	1-1	0.518	13.6	41.6	22.5	11.0	5.4	2.6
SEA	2-1	0.498	15.0	44.4	23.4	11.0	5.1	2.4
PIT	2-1	0.472	18.7	47.6	23.6	10.2	4.4	1.9
LAC	1-2	0.498	19.7	33.4	16.4	7.6	3.5	1.6
ARI	1-2	0.509	9.7	28.7	14.9	7.1	3.4	1.6
HOU	1-2	0.487	21.4	35.8	17.4	7.8	3.5	1.6
NE	1-2	0.484	5.6	28.6	13.9	6.2	2.8	1.3
WSH	2-1	0.453	14.3	34.8	16.4	6.9	2.9	1.2
JAX	1-2	0.466	15.0	25.9	11.9	5.1	2.2	0.9
TEN	1-2	0.453	15.2	26.3	11.8	4.9	2.0	0.9
NYJ	1-2	0.455	4.3	20.9	9.5	4.0	1.7	0.7
LV	1-2	0.441	11.4	20.6	8.9	3.6	1.5	0.6
MIN	0-3	0.478	7.5	13.5	6.3	2.8	1.3	0.6
CIN	0-2	0.456	3.0	12.9	5.8	2.4	1.0	0.4
NYG	1-2	0.426	3.9	12.6	5.2	2.1	0.8	0.3
DEN	0-3	0.439	3.9	8.3	3.5	1.4	0.6	0.2
CAR	0-3	0.452	1.9	6.3	2.8	1.2	0.5	0.2
CHI	0-3	0.426	2.9	6.6	2.7	1.1	0.4	0.2

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 4

Notre Dame lost their game and their #1 ranking this week, falling down to #9. But, Ohio State couldn't quite take over the #1 spot with their win, rising up to #2, right behind Penn State. Missouri is surprisingly ranked #3. They're playing #79 Vanderbilt this week, so even a win may bring them down due to a weakening schedule. This reminds me that I've thought about making a more "predictive" set of rankings as well, which would take into account the teams' future scheduled games, which would make the strength of schedule fluctuate a little less through the season.

I mentioned my new data source allowing me to fix previous week's errors. There was again one game they had wrong last week. It would appear the Howard vs Hampton game was entered before it ended, so the 35-34 victory for Hampton showed as a 34-28 loss. I thought maybe it was a last-second victory, but the winning TD and PAT came with just over 3 minutes to go in that game, so I'm not sure what happened. Regardless, it did not affect the top 46 teams last week, and otherwise only swapped around groups of 2 or 3 teams in a few places. The good news is that in past years, this error would have carried forward for the rest of the season, because I only put the new games into my software each week, but now the full season so far is used, and also checked against the previous week for differences.

There are now 27 undefeated teams left, down from 39, and there are 5 winless teams, down from 7. Buffalo lost but still got out the cellar because Sam Houston State is the new #133.

1	Penn State	4-0
2	Ohio State	4-0
3	Missouri	4-0
4	Utah	4-0
5	Miami	4-0
6	Washington	4-0
7	Texas	4-0
8	Michigan	4-0
9	Notre Dame	4-1
10	Oregon	4-0
11	Oklahoma	4-0
12	North Carolina	4-0
13	Duke	4-0
14	Georgia	4-0
15	Florida State	4-0
16	Washington State	4-0
17	Kansas	4-0
18	Louisville	4-0
19	Liberty	4-0
20	Georgia State	4-0
21	Fresno State	4-0
22	James Madison	4-0
23	Maryland	4-0
24	Kentucky	4-0
25	Syracuse	4-0
26	Air Force	4-0
27	USC	4-0
28	Ohio	4-1
29	Kansas State	3-1
30	UCLA	3-1
31	Ole Miss	3-1
32	Texas A&M	3-1
33	Alabama	3-1
34	Colorado	3-1
35	LSU	3-1
36	UCF	3-1
37	Rutgers	3-1
38	Wyoming	3-1
39	UNLV	3-1
40	Oregon State	3-1
41	Memphis	3-1
42	Wake Forest	3-1
43	Iowa	3-1
44	Marshall	3-0
45	Wisconsin	3-1
46	Florida	3-1
47	TCU	3-1
48	Auburn	3-1
49	West Virginia	3-1
50	BYU	3-1
51	Tennessee	3-1
52	Tulane	3-1
53	Miami (OH)	3-1
54	NC State	3-1
55	Jacksonville State	3-1
56	Arizona	3-1
57	Texas State	3-1
58	Georgia Southern	3-1
59	South Carolina	2-2
60	Toledo	3-1
61	Boise State	2-2
62	South Florida	2-2
63	Florida International	3-2
64	Louisiana	3-1
65	Coastal Carolina	2-2
66	Troy	2-2
67	California	2-2
68	Michigan State	2-2
69	Illinois	2-2
70	Georgia Tech	2-2
71	Northwestern	2-2
72	Western Kentucky	2-2
73	Central Michigan	2-2
74	Arkansas	2-2
75	Temple	2-2
76	Minnesota	2-2
77	SMU	2-2
78	Louisiana Monroe	2-1
79	Vanderbilt	2-3
80	Clemson	2-2
81	Iowa State	2-2
82	Tulsa	2-2
83	San Diego State	2-3
84	Appalachian State	2-2
85	Mississippi State	2-2
86	Nebraska	2-2
87	Indiana	2-2
88	Rice	2-2
89	Arkansas State	2-2
90	Cincinnati	2-2
91	Hawai'i	2-3
92	Oklahoma State	2-2
93	South Alabama	2-2
94	Old Dominion	2-2
95	Army	2-2
96	Eastern Michigan	2-2
97	New Mexico	2-2
98	Houston	2-2
99	Bowling Green	1-3
100	New Mexico State	2-3
101	Texas Tech	1-3
102	Louisiana Tech	2-3
103	Navy	1-2
104	Colorado State	1-2
105	Purdue	1-3
106	Stanford	1-3
107	Charlotte	1-3
108	Boston College	1-3
109	Utah State	1-3
110	North Texas	1-2
111	UTEP	1-4
112	Baylor	1-3
113	Kent State	1-3
114	Ball State	1-3
115	East Carolina	1-3
116	San José State	1-4
117	Middle Tennessee	1-3
118	Virginia Tech	1-3
119	Arizona State	1-3
120	UT San Antonio	1-3
121	Western Michigan	1-3
122	Northern Illinois	1-3
123	UAB	1-3
124	Florida Atlantic	1-3
125	Southern Mississippi	1-3
126	Pittsburgh	1-3
127	Akron	1-3
128	UMass	1-4
129	Virginia	0-4
130	Nevada	0-4
131	Connecticut	0-4
132	Buffalo	0-4
133	Sam Houston State	0-3

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame
Week 3 Notre Dame

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

San Francisco over Baltimore

It feels like there should be an asterisk here, but San Francisco has taken over the NFC lead. They are, of course, one of only 2 teams to play 3 games, so at 3-0 are currently more likely than the 2-0 teams to win. In the AFC, nothing changes of course, as the only thing an NFC cross-divisional matchup could really affect is a very late tiebreaker.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	3-0	0.572	67.4	83.3	56.8	31.6	17.5	9.8
DAL	2-0	0.558	44.0	72.3	46.3	24.9	13.3	7.3
BAL	2-0	0.535	51.5	75.7	49.9	26.6	14.1	7.1
MIA	2-0	0.514	45.8	71.2	44.7	22.7	11.5	5.6
ATL	2-0	0.529	36.6	67.6	40.5	20.4	10.2	5.3
BUF	1-1	0.538	29.7	58.1	35.6	19.0	10.1	5.2
CLE	1-1	0.535	28.7	57.8	35.2	18.7	9.9	5.0
TB	2-0	0.526	30.8	62.7	36.8	18.4	9.2	4.7
KC	1-1	0.518	42.0	58.6	34.6	17.7	9.0	4.4
PHI	2-0	0.518	27.4	58.7	33.6	16.5	8.1	4.1
NO	2-0	0.510	30.1	60.0	33.8	16.3	7.8	3.9
GB	1-1	0.526	46.0	55.8	30.5	15.2	7.5	3.9
WSH	2-0	0.510	26.1	57.1	32.1	15.5	7.4	3.7
TEN	1-1	0.504	31.2	51.4	29.3	14.5	7.2	3.4
JAX	1-1	0.504	31.6	49.1	27.3	13.6	6.7	3.2
IND	1-1	0.502	28.7	48.8	27.2	13.4	6.6	3.1
LAR	1-1	0.518	15.9	41.1	22.0	10.8	5.3	2.7
DET	1-1	0.492	29.4	38.7	19.4	9.0	4.1	2.0
NYJ	1-1	0.471	17.3	40.0	20.9	9.6	4.4	2.0
PIT	1-1	0.465	15.8	38.8	19.9	9.1	4.1	1.8
DEN	0-2	0.495	16.3	29.1	15.3	7.4	3.6	1.7
LV	1-1	0.454	24.1	37.8	18.6	8.3	3.7	1.6
LAC	0-2	0.493	17.6	27.7	14.3	6.9	3.3	1.6
SEA	1-1	0.483	10.7	29.4	14.5	6.6	3.0	1.4
NE	0-2	0.477	7.3	22.7	11.5	5.4	2.5	1.1
MIN	0-2	0.484	15.3	21.0	10.0	4.5	2.1	1.0
ARI	0-2	0.487	6.0	15.5	7.5	3.4	1.6	0.8
HOU	0-2	0.456	8.4	17.8	8.4	3.7	1.7	0.7
CIN	0-2	0.456	4.0	15.5	7.4	3.3	1.5	0.6
CHI	0-2	0.460	9.3	14.6	6.6	2.8	1.2	0.5
CAR	0-2	0.463	2.4	11.2	5.1	2.2	1.0	0.4
NYG	1-2	0.426	2.6	11.0	4.6	1.8	0.7	0.3

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 2, Final

Dallas over Baltimore

After the Monday night double header, Cleveland did not win to regain their AFC spot, so Baltimore remains the favorite to play Dallas. Also losing was Carolina, who is now the least likely team to win the Super Bowl. But, with 9 2-0 teams, fortunes can and will change quickly over the next few weeks.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	2-0	0.558	43.3	72.2	47.1	25.6	13.9	7.6
BAL	2-0	0.535	51.6	76.0	50.3	26.8	14.2	7.3
SF	2-0	0.546	55.8	71.6	44.9	23.8	12.5	6.7
MIA	2-0	0.514	45.8	71.0	44.4	22.6	11.4	5.6
ATL	2-0	0.529	36.6	67.5	41.3	21.1	10.7	5.6
BUF	1-1	0.538	29.7	57.8	35.3	18.9	10.1	5.2
CLE	1-1	0.535	28.8	58.3	35.5	18.8	10.0	5.1
TB	2-0	0.526	31.3	63.1	37.8	19.2	9.7	5.0
KC	1-1	0.518	42.1	58.7	34.6	17.7	9.0	4.5
PHI	2-0	0.518	26.3	58.0	33.8	16.8	8.3	4.2
NO	2-0	0.510	29.7	59.5	34.2	16.7	8.1	4.1
GB	1-1	0.526	45.6	55.4	30.7	15.5	7.8	4.0
WSH	2-0	0.510	25.1	56.4	32.2	15.8	7.7	3.8
TEN	1-1	0.504	31.1	51.4	29.2	14.5	7.2	3.5
JAX	1-1	0.505	31.9	49.5	27.6	13.7	6.8	3.3
IND	1-1	0.502	28.6	48.8	27.1	13.4	6.6	3.2
LAR	1-1	0.518	21.3	42.1	23.0	11.4	5.7	2.9
DET	1-1	0.492	29.5	38.7	19.7	9.2	4.3	2.1
NYJ	1-1	0.471	17.3	39.7	20.7	9.5	4.4	2.0
PIT	1-1	0.465	15.6	38.7	19.9	9.1	4.1	1.8
DEN	0-2	0.495	16.4	29.1	15.3	7.4	3.6	1.7
LAC	0-2	0.493	17.7	27.8	14.3	6.9	3.4	1.6
LV	1-1	0.454	23.8	37.4	18.4	8.2	3.6	1.6
SEA	1-1	0.483	14.4	30.7	15.4	7.1	3.3	1.6
NE	0-2	0.477	7.3	22.5	11.3	5.3	2.5	1.1
MIN	0-2	0.484	15.6	21.3	10.3	4.7	2.2	1.0
ARI	0-2	0.487	8.5	16.8	8.2	3.8	1.8	0.9
NYG	1-1	0.451	5.3	20.9	9.7	4.2	1.8	0.8
HOU	0-2	0.456	8.4	17.8	8.4	3.7	1.7	0.7
CIN	0-2	0.456	4.0	15.7	7.5	3.4	1.5	0.7
CHI	0-2	0.460	9.3	14.6	6.7	2.9	1.3	0.6
CAR	0-2	0.463	2.4	11.1	5.2	2.3	1.0	0.5

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Dallas over Baltimore

Cleveland loses their top spot to Baltimore, albeit because they haven't played yet this week. Dallas now stands alone at the top, having beaten the 2 New York (City) teams by a combined 70-10.

The imbalance between the conferences really gives some odd numbers if you dig in deep, although being week 2, that's really unnecessary. For example, Chicago, at 0-2, still has a 9% shot at the NFC North, but Cincinnati and Houston, while slightly weaker, have a much lower chance of winning their divisions, but a much higher chance at a wildcard spot, putting their playoff odds above Chicago.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	2-0	0.558	43.1	72.3	47.4	25.8	14.0	7.7
BAL	2-0	0.535	48.1	75.9	49.9	26.5	14.1	7.2
SF	2-0	0.546	55.9	71.8	45.3	24.0	12.7	6.8
CLE	1-0	0.529	37.9	67.4	42.4	22.2	11.6	5.9
ATL	2-0	0.529	39.0	68.0	41.8	21.4	10.9	5.6
MIA	2-0	0.514	45.6	70.9	43.9	22.3	11.3	5.6
BUF	1-1	0.538	29.7	57.9	35.1	18.8	10.0	5.2
TB	2-0	0.526	33.1	63.2	38.0	19.3	9.8	5.0
KC	1-1	0.518	42.1	58.7	34.4	17.6	8.9	4.4
PHI	2-0	0.518	26.4	58.3	34.1	17.0	8.4	4.3
GB	1-1	0.526	45.5	55.4	30.8	15.6	7.8	4.0
WSH	2-0	0.510	25.1	56.7	32.6	15.9	7.8	3.9
TEN	1-1	0.504	31.0	51.2	29.0	14.4	7.1	3.4
JAX	1-1	0.505	32.0	49.4	27.5	13.6	6.7	3.3
IND	1-1	0.502	28.6	48.7	27.0	13.3	6.5	3.1
NO	1-0	0.503	21.8	47.3	26.1	12.6	6.0	3.0
LAR	1-1	0.518	21.3	42.4	23.2	11.5	5.7	2.9
DET	1-1	0.492	29.5	38.9	19.8	9.3	4.4	2.1
NYJ	1-1	0.471	17.4	39.9	20.7	9.5	4.4	2.0
DEN	0-2	0.495	16.5	29.3	15.3	7.4	3.6	1.7
LAC	0-2	0.493	17.7	27.8	14.3	6.9	3.3	1.6
SEA	1-1	0.483	14.3	30.9	15.5	7.2	3.3	1.6
LV	1-1	0.454	23.7	37.2	18.2	8.1	3.6	1.5
PIT	0-1	0.471	10.5	30.0	15.4	7.1	3.3	1.5
NE	0-2	0.477	7.3	22.4	11.2	5.2	2.4	1.1
MIN	0-2	0.484	15.6	21.4	10.4	4.8	2.2	1.0
CAR	0-1	0.475	6.2	20.3	9.9	4.5	2.0	0.9
ARI	0-2	0.487	8.5	17.0	8.3	3.9	1.8	0.9
NYG	1-1	0.451	5.4	21.2	9.9	4.2	1.8	0.8
HOU	0-2	0.456	8.4	17.7	8.3	3.7	1.7	0.7
CIN	0-2	0.456	3.5	15.5	7.4	3.3	1.5	0.6
CHI	0-2	0.460	9.4	14.8	6.7	2.9	1.3	0.6

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 3

I've got a new source for my data this year, and one handy new feature is that I can see if anything changes for the previous weeks. They missed a game in Week 1, Weber State over Central Washington, 35-10. I'm not going to go update my posts, but I might at least call out the missing games in case I ever want to go get a full reckoning of what should have been. Week 1 rankings are silly anyway, but that game did not affect the outcome for any of the teams. It did change week 2 slightly, with several pods of 2-3 teams changing orders, such as Iowa jumping 2 spots to #15, Florida State jumping over Missouri to #30, and a few ties being untied and vice versa. The top 14 and bottom 14, coincidentally, stayed the same.

Notre Dame remains at #1 with another win this week. They've got a big game against #9 Ohio State this week, which will give a big boost to the winner. Missouri pulled off a pretty unexpected upset of Kansas State to jump from #30 (or #31 I guess) to #7. Baylor won to pull themselves out of the basement, and Buffalo is the new #133. There are still 39 undefeated teams and 7 winless teams, so no one's spot is safe for long.

1	Notre Dame	4-0
2	Texas	3-0
3	UCLA	3-0
4	Miami	3-0
5	North Carolina	3-0
6	Ole Miss	3-0
7	Missouri	3-0
8	Duke	3-0
9	Ohio State	3-0
10	Penn State	3-0
11	Utah	3-0
12	Washington	3-0
13	Auburn	3-0
14	Oregon State	3-0
15	Oklahoma	3-0
16	Rutgers	3-0
17	Florida State	3-0
18	UCF	3-0
19	Georgia	3-0
20	Michigan	3-0
21	Memphis	3-0
22	Colorado	3-0
23	Wake Forest	3-0
24	Louisville	3-0
25	Fresno State	3-0
26	Liberty	3-0
27	Iowa	3-0
28	Oregon	3-0
29	James Madison	3-0
30	Georgia State	3-0
31	BYU	3-0
32	Washington State	3-0
33	Syracuse	3-0
34	USC	3-0
35	Kentucky	3-0
36	Air Force	3-0
37	Kansas	3-0
38	Maryland	3-0
39	Ohio	3-1
40	Florida International	3-1
41	Minnesota	2-1
42	Tulane	2-1
43	Miami (OH)	2-1
44	California	2-1
45	Arkansas	2-1
46	Coastal Carolina	2-1
47	Alabama	2-1
48	Texas A&M	2-1
49	Eastern Michigan	2-1
50	Clemson	2-1
51	LSU	2-1
52	Kansas State	2-1
53	Wyoming	2-1
54	SMU	2-1
55	UNLV	2-1
56	Western Kentucky	2-1
57	San Diego State	2-2
58	Temple	2-1
59	Michigan State	2-1
60	West Virginia	2-1
61	Florida	2-1
62	Wisconsin	2-1
63	South Alabama	2-1
64	Louisiana Monroe	2-1
65	Appalachian State	2-1
66	TCU	2-1
67	Oklahoma State	2-1
68	Mississippi State	2-1
69	Marshall	2-0
70	NC State	2-1
71	Rice	2-1
72	Tennessee	2-1
73	Texas State	2-1
74	Cincinnati	2-1
75	Jacksonville State	2-1
76	Louisiana Tech	2-2
77	Vanderbilt	2-2
78	Army	2-1
79	New Mexico State	2-2
80	Georgia Southern	2-1
81	Arizona	2-1
82	Toledo	2-1
83	Louisiana	2-1
84	Bowling Green	1-2
85	South Carolina	1-2
86	Boise State	1-2
87	Central Michigan	1-2
88	Illinois	1-2
89	South Florida	1-2
90	Texas Tech	1-2
91	Tulsa	1-2
92	North Texas	1-2
93	Troy	1-2
94	Middle Tennessee	1-2
95	Purdue	1-2
96	UMass	1-3
97	Northwestern	1-2
98	Nebraska	1-2
99	Navy	1-2
100	Kent State	1-2
101	Stanford	1-2
102	Iowa State	1-2
103	Southern Mississippi	1-2
104	Florida Atlantic	1-2
105	Boston College	1-2
106	Old Dominion	1-2
107	Arkansas State	1-2
108	Indiana	1-2
109	Georgia Tech	1-2
110	Virginia Tech	1-2
111	Akron	1-2
112	Northern Illinois	1-2
113	Ball State	1-2
114	Western Michigan	1-2
115	Utah State	1-2
116	Houston	1-2
117	Charlotte	1-2
118	San José State	1-3
119	Arizona State	1-2
120	UT San Antonio	1-2
121	Baylor	1-2
122	Pittsburgh	1-2
123	New Mexico	1-2
124	UTEP	1-3
125	Hawai'i	1-3
126	UAB	1-2
127	Colorado State	0-2
128	Sam Houston State	0-2
129	Connecticut	0-3
130	Virginia	0-3
131	East Carolina	0-3
132	Nevada	0-3
133	Buffalo	0-3

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State
Week 2 Notre Dame

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 2, Thursday

Dallas over Cleveland

Usually this is the day I lament the flaw in my system, but Philadelphia's relatively small margin of victory prevents them from grabbing the #1 slot in the NFC away from Dallas. They are the favorite to win the division, as well the most likely NFC team to advance to each round except the Super Bowl. On the flip side of the table, Minnesota isn't in the worst position, also due to that blowout and shutout of New York by Dallas last week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CLE	1-0	0.529	40.9	66.0	41.6	22.0	11.6	6.0
BAL	1-0	0.527	38.1	64.4	40.3	21.2	11.1	5.7
DAL	1-0	0.529	32.9	59.2	35.9	18.7	9.7	5.1
JAX	1-0	0.515	46.2	63.5	38.4	19.7	10.0	5.1
PHI	2-0	0.517	34.9	62.4	37.5	19.0	9.6	4.9
SF	1-0	0.529	37.9	57.8	34.8	18.0	9.3	4.9
ATL	1-0	0.525	35.7	59.1	35.5	18.3	9.4	4.9
GB	1-0	0.522	43.5	60.6	36.0	18.4	9.4	4.8
LAR	1-0	0.525	38.0	58.4	34.9	18.0	9.2	4.8
NYJ	1-0	0.513	37.4	60.0	36.0	18.4	9.3	4.7
LV	1-0	0.503	41.3	59.8	35.0	17.4	8.7	4.3
MIA	1-0	0.502	32.8	56.3	33.0	16.4	8.2	4.0
WSH	1-0	0.509	25.3	51.4	29.6	14.7	7.3	3.7
TB	1-0	0.507	28.0	51.5	29.5	14.6	7.2	3.6
DET	1-0	0.502	33.2	50.7	28.4	13.9	6.8	3.4
NO	1-0	0.503	27.4	49.7	28.0	13.8	6.7	3.4
TEN	0-1	0.497	21.8	38.7	21.2	10.4	5.1	2.5
KC	0-1	0.498	20.8	37.8	20.7	10.2	5.0	2.4
LAC	0-1	0.498	20.0	35.5	19.2	9.5	4.7	2.3
DEN	0-1	0.497	17.8	35.2	19.1	9.4	4.6	2.2
NE	0-1	0.491	16.5	35.1	19.0	9.2	4.5	2.1
IND	0-1	0.485	15.8	32.0	16.8	8.1	3.9	1.8
BUF	0-1	0.487	13.3	31.2	16.5	8.0	3.8	1.8
ARI	0-1	0.491	14.1	27.9	14.5	6.9	3.3	1.6
HOU	0-1	0.473	16.2	29.4	15.0	7.0	3.3	1.5
PIT	0-1	0.471	11.3	28.5	14.7	6.8	3.2	1.5
CIN	0-1	0.471	9.7	26.7	13.6	6.3	2.9	1.3
CHI	0-1	0.478	12.1	24.9	12.5	5.8	2.7	1.3
CAR	0-1	0.475	9.0	23.1	11.6	5.3	2.5	1.2
SEA	0-1	0.475	10.0	23.0	11.5	5.3	2.5	1.2
MIN	0-2	0.485	11.1	19.5	9.7	4.6	2.2	1.0
NYG	0-1	0.471	6.9	20.7	10.3	4.7	2.2	1.0

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 1, Final

Dallas over Cleveland

Returning despite no particular popular demand: my Super Bowl projections! I really need to work on a better explainer paragraph, but here's what I usually go with:

Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.

I feel like I've lived through too many bad Cleveland seasons to every truly believe that they'll be good enough to make the Super Bowl, and even though I can recall the Dallas back-to-back wins, I've seen them fail to live up to their promise so much that it feels weird to pick them too. But, after a 40-0 win, Dallas is the strongest team in the league by a hair over Cleveland, who won 24-3.

Note that the list below is sorted by overall chances to win the Super Bowl, so Cleveland is at the top due to a slightly easier path to get there (The NFC is currently 10-6 while the AFC is 6-10, and the AFC North is 2-2 compared to the NFC East's 3-1), but in a hypothetical matchup against Dallas, Dallas would be slightly favored. Hence, Dallas over Cleveland.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CLE	1-0	0.529	40.9	66.0	41.6	22.0	11.6	6.0
BAL	1-0	0.527	38.2	64.4	40.3	21.2	11.1	5.7
DAL	1-0	0.529	36.3	60.0	36.5	19.0	9.9	5.2
JAX	1-0	0.515	46.2	63.4	38.3	19.6	10.0	5.1
SF	1-0	0.529	37.8	58.0	35.0	18.2	9.4	4.9
ATL	1-0	0.525	35.6	59.1	35.7	18.4	9.5	4.9
LAR	1-0	0.525	38.0	58.6	35.1	18.1	9.3	4.8
GB	1-0	0.522	41.2	59.9	35.7	18.3	9.3	4.8
NYJ	1-0	0.513	37.4	60.1	36.1	18.4	9.4	4.7
LV	1-0	0.503	41.3	59.7	34.9	17.4	8.7	4.3
MIA	1-0	0.502	32.8	56.4	33.0	16.5	8.2	4.0
WSH	1-0	0.509	28.0	52.1	30.1	15.0	7.5	3.8
TB	1-0	0.507	28.1	51.9	29.9	14.8	7.3	3.7
PHI	1-0	0.509	27.9	50.7	29.2	14.5	7.2	3.7
NO	1-0	0.503	27.3	49.8	28.3	13.9	6.8	3.4
DET	1-0	0.502	31.4	50.0	28.2	13.8	6.8	3.4
TEN	0-1	0.497	21.8	38.7	21.2	10.4	5.1	2.5
KC	0-1	0.498	20.9	37.8	20.7	10.2	5.0	2.4
LAC	0-1	0.498	20.0	35.4	19.2	9.5	4.7	2.3
DEN	0-1	0.497	17.8	35.1	19.0	9.4	4.6	2.2
NE	0-1	0.491	16.5	35.1	19.0	9.2	4.5	2.1
IND	0-1	0.485	15.9	32.0	16.9	8.1	3.9	1.8
BUF	0-1	0.487	13.3	31.3	16.6	8.0	3.9	1.8
MIN	0-1	0.493	16.0	29.6	15.5	7.5	3.6	1.8
ARI	0-1	0.491	14.2	28.1	14.6	7.0	3.4	1.6
HOU	0-1	0.473	16.2	29.4	15.0	7.0	3.3	1.5
PIT	0-1	0.471	11.3	28.5	14.7	6.8	3.2	1.5
CIN	0-1	0.471	9.7	26.6	13.5	6.3	2.9	1.3
CHI	0-1	0.478	11.3	24.6	12.4	5.8	2.7	1.3
CAR	0-1	0.475	8.9	23.3	11.7	5.4	2.5	1.2
SEA	0-1	0.475	10.1	23.2	11.6	5.4	2.5	1.2
NYG	0-1	0.471	7.9	21.1	10.5	4.8	2.2	1.0

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 2

Notre Dame won their third game, an impressive feat after just 2 weeks of football, and is the new #1. Previous tied-for-#1s Jacksonville State and San Diego state both lost and fell to #53 and #19. Hawai'i and San José State, the twin threats to proper punctuation usage, both won to leave the bottom spot and rise to #69 and #77, while Baylor takes over at #133. Missouri is hanging in there, technically falling from #12 to #30 this week, but there were 71 teams at #12, so this is really somewhat of a gain.

1	Notre Dame	3-0
2	USC	3-0
3	UCLA	2-0
4	Ole Miss	2-0
5	Rutgers	2-0
6	Kansas State	2-0
7	Miami	2-0
8	North Carolina	2-0
9	Western Kentucky	2-0
10	Texas	2-0
11	Duke	2-0
12	Vanderbilt	2-1
13	Oregon State	2-0
14	Penn State	2-0
15	Louisville	2-0
16	Wake Forest	2-0
17	Iowa	2-0
18	Oklahoma State	2-0
19	San Diego State	2-1
20	Oklahoma	2-0
21	Auburn	2-0
22	Marshall	2-0
23	Fresno State	2-0
24	Arkansas	2-0
25	Memphis	2-0
26	Liberty	2-0
27	Michigan	2-0
28	Ohio State	2-0
29	Minnesota	2-0
30	Missouri	2-0
31	Florida State	2-0
32	James Madison	2-0
33	Michigan State	2-0
34	Kansas	2-0
35	Georgia	2-0
36	Washington State	2-0
T-37	Colorado	2-0
T-37	Cincinnati	2-0
39	Ohio	2-1
T-40	Washington	2-0
T-40	Syracuse	2-0
42	Louisiana Monroe	2-0
43	Air Force	2-0
44	Georgia State	2-0
45	Louisiana Tech	2-1
46	Mississippi State	2-0
47	Georgia Southern	2-0
48	Utah	2-0
49	Tennessee	2-0
50	UCF	2-0
51	Maryland	2-0
52	Kentucky	2-0
53	Jacksonville State	2-1
T-54	Oregon	2-0
T-54	Wyoming	2-0
56	BYU	2-0
57	Florida International	2-1
58	Coastal Carolina	1-1
59	SMU	1-1
60	Stanford	1-1
61	South Florida	1-1
62	Rice	1-1
63	Central Michigan	1-1
64	Clemson	1-1
65	Purdue	1-1
66	Temple	1-1
67	Miami (OH)	1-1
68	Northern Illinois	1-1
69	Hawai'i	1-2
70	Appalachian State	1-1
71	Tulane	1-1
72	Northwestern	1-1
73	West Virginia	1-1
74	Troy	1-1
75	Texas A&M	1-1
76	South Carolina	1-1
77	San José State	1-2
78	UNLV	1-1
79	Eastern Michigan	1-1
80	Bowling Green	1-1
81	Florida Atlantic	1-1
82	Illinois	1-1
83	Houston	1-1
84	Virginia Tech	1-1
85	NC State	1-1
86	Alabama	1-1
87	Utah State	1-1
88	Navy	1-1
89	Arizona State	1-1
90	California	1-1
91	Akron	1-1
92	Pittsburgh	1-1
93	Boston College	1-1
94	Iowa State	1-1
95	Wisconsin	1-1
96	TCU	1-1
97	Florida	1-1
98	Arizona	1-1
99	UMass	1-2
100	Georgia Tech	1-1
101	Indiana	1-1
102	Southern Mississippi	1-1
103	UAB	1-1
104	LSU	1-1
105	UT San Antonio	1-1
106	Old Dominion	1-1
107	Tulsa	1-1
108	Army	1-1
109	Western Michigan	1-1
110	Charlotte	1-1
111	South Alabama	1-1
112	UTEP	1-2
113	New Mexico	1-1
114	Toledo	1-1
115	Louisiana	1-1
116	Texas State	1-1
117	New Mexico State	1-2
T-118	Arkansas State	0-2
T-118	Colorado State	0-1
120	East Carolina	0-2
121	Nevada	0-2
122	Nebraska	0-2
123	Kent State	0-2
124	Virginia	0-2
125	Ball State	0-2
126	Boise State	0-2
127	Sam Houston State	0-2
128	Texas Tech	0-2
129	Middle Tennessee	0-2
130	Connecticut	0-2
131	North Texas	0-2
132	Buffalo	0-2
133	Baylor	0-2

2023 History and #1s
Week 1 Jacksonville State and San Diego State

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

After a few years off, I've returned to posting my power rankings. The reasons for my absence were not major, but there were several of them, which all kind of piled up to make my blog as a whole less active. Perhaps I'll get into an explanation one of these days. Now, as is opening week tradition, the copied, pasted, and lightly edited explainer.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules stated margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking. Now that the BCS is dead, I'll just consider these rankings my advice on #1 to #4 to the College Football Playoff committee.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schedules, and any of their lower-tier opponents, but only when those opponents play at least a Division III team. (i.e., an NAIA team will be listed when they play against a Div III team, but the rest of their games won't be listed, resulting in a lot of 0-1 teams mixed into my system). I then filter the final results to only the FBS schools.

In the past, in week 1, there were only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (formerly known as Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week! However, since 2016 we seem to be in the era of the pre-Week-1 game, which means a 2-0, 0-2, and/or 1-1 team might be in the mix. Also, some teams may not play in Week 1, and you don't get a ranking until you play, thus the bottom of the chart may not be the full number of teams in FBS.

The last time I did this was 2020, with tons of cancellations, reschedules, and just all-around weirdness. Week 1 only had 14 teams included (out of the 130 total). There are now 133 FBS schools, with James Madison joining in 2022, and Sam Houston and Jacksonville State joining for 2023. Those two won't be postseason eligible this year, which makes the reveal of the Week 1 number 1 team extra fun. I may have to start posting Week 0 standings, because this year we're up to 13 FBS teams that have already played 2 games by the end of "Week 1". We have a tie for #1 between Jacksonville State and San Diego State, both 2-0 and having beaten 1 team that is 0-1, and one team that is 1-1, who beat another 0-1 team. San José State and Hawai'i bring up the rear, tied at #132, and my home team until SLU re-forms a football team, Missouri, sits in the muddled group of 1-0 teams tied at #12.

1	Jacksonville State	2-0
1	San Diego State	2-0
3	Notre Dame	2-0
4	Vanderbilt	2-0
4	USC	2-0
6	SMU	1-0
6	Ole Miss	1-0
6	Auburn	1-0
6	Marshall	1-0
10	UMass	1-1
10	Louisiana Tech	1-1
12	Georgia State	1-0
12	UCF	1-0
12	Wake Forest	1-0
12	Western Michigan	1-0
12	NC State	1-0
12	Tulsa	1-0
12	Minnesota	1-0
12	Missouri	1-0
12	UAB	1-0
12	Utah	1-0
12	Arizona State	1-0
12	Eastern Michigan	1-0
12	Miami	1-0
12	Michigan State	1-0
12	Louisville	1-0
12	Kansas	1-0
12	Oklahoma	1-0
12	Colorado	1-0
12	Fresno State	1-0
12	Kentucky	1-0
12	Iowa	1-0
12	Michigan	1-0
12	Northern Illinois	1-0
12	Liberty	1-0
12	Tennessee	1-0
12	Air Force	1-0
12	Temple	1-0
12	Iowa State	1-0
12	Oregon	1-0
12	Wisconsin	1-0
12	Maryland	1-0
12	Appalachian State	1-0
12	Washington	1-0
12	Texas	1-0
12	Cincinnati	1-0
12	Western Kentucky	1-0
12	Pittsburgh	1-0
12	Ohio State	1-0
12	California	1-0
12	Arkansas	1-0
12	Syracuse	1-0
12	Mississippi State	1-0
12	UNLV	1-0
12	Georgia Southern	1-0
12	Georgia	1-0
12	Florida Atlantic	1-0
12	James Madison	1-0
12	Memphis	1-0
12	Southern Mississippi	1-0
12	Washington State	1-0
12	Kansas State	1-0
12	Houston	1-0
12	Oklahoma State	1-0
12	Texas State	1-0
12	Texas A&M	1-0
12	Louisiana Monroe	1-0
12	Troy	1-0
12	North Carolina	1-0
12	Illinois	1-0
12	Louisiana	1-0
12	Wyoming	1-0
12	Alabama	1-0
12	Penn State	1-0
12	Tulane	1-0
12	Virginia Tech	1-0
12	Arizona	1-0
12	BYU	1-0
12	UCLA	1-0
12	Rutgers	1-0
12	Florida State	1-0
12	Duke	1-0
83	UTEP	1-1
83	Ohio	1-1
85	Stanford	1-0
85	Oregon State	1-0
87	Charlotte	1-0
88	New Mexico State	1-1
88	Florida International	1-1
90	Navy	0-1
91	Nevada	0-1
92	Kent State	0-1
92	Connecticut	0-1
92	Nebraska	0-1
92	Florida	0-1
92	Miami (OH)	0-1
92	Central Michigan	0-1
92	Georgia Tech	0-1
92	Arkansas State	0-1
92	TCU	0-1
92	Purdue	0-1
92	Ball State	0-1
92	Utah State	0-1
92	East Carolina	0-1
92	Boston College	0-1
92	Bowling Green	0-1
92	Virginia	0-1
92	Akron	0-1
92	Buffalo	0-1
92	Boise State	0-1
92	Rice	0-1
92	South Florida	0-1
92	Indiana	0-1
92	North Texas	0-1
92	Colorado State	0-1
92	UT San Antonio	0-1
92	Baylor	0-1
92	New Mexico	0-1
92	Army	0-1
92	South Carolina	0-1
92	Toledo	0-1
92	Texas Tech	0-1
92	Middle Tennessee	0-1
92	West Virginia	0-1
92	South Alabama	0-1
92	Old Dominion	0-1
92	Sam Houston State	0-1
92	Coastal Carolina	0-1
92	Northwestern	0-1
92	LSU	0-1
92	Clemson	0-1
132	Hawai'i	0-2
132	San José State	0-2