Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Final

Green Bay over Houston.

Believe it or not, Green Bay still isn't in the playoffs for certain. And New Orleans came on strong last night to boost their chances and drop Green Bay back below 20% to win it all. Jacksonville can't win the AFC South but has an outside shot at a Wildcard, and the Rams, Colts, and Vikings are playing for draft picks.  We should see several teams eliminated and a few lock up spots next week.

From a gut reaction standpoint as opposed to the numbers, I think Baltimore has a better shot than Houston right now, although Leinert being out may only help their cause.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.909	100.000	99.900	64.542	35.572	19.968
HOU	8-3	98.358	98.904	80.548	47.501	27.456	14.584
SF	9-2	99.944	99.985	97.502	58.985	31.656	17.382
BAL	8-3	75.863	98.234	87.351	50.514	26.148	12.951
NE	8-3	98.763	99.354	86.398	47.348	24.922	12.272
NO	8-3	87.226	95.652	59.125	26.838	13.214	6.591
DET	7-4	0.067	58.551	32.998	12.958	5.660	2.538
CHI	7-4	0.024	77.259	41.769	15.747	6.629	2.869
PIT	8-3	18.987	91.590	59.187	25.354	10.870	4.484
CIN	7-4	5.150	55.678	29.170	11.956	5.054	2.018
ATL	7-4	12.760	61.535	27.022	9.162	3.551	1.398
TEN	6-5	1.642	18.379	6.912	2.444	0.920	0.316
NYJ	6-5	1.177	27.040	10.488	3.631	1.346	0.460
MIA	3-8	0.001	0.008	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
DAL	6-5	66.296	67.202	27.464	8.131	2.664	0.920
PHI	4-7	6.765	6.877	2.772	0.813	0.265	0.091
SEA	5-6	0.056	4.431	1.641	0.433	0.135	0.042
OAK	7-4	63.531	68.417	26.172	7.763	2.362	0.692
BUF	5-6	0.059	1.970	0.637	0.183	0.057	0.016
NYG	6-5	26.496	27.628	9.565	2.343	0.644	0.187
SD	4-7	1.235	1.419	0.469	0.130	0.037	0.010
DEN	6-5	34.682	38.421	12.552	3.158	0.825	0.206
ARI	4-7	0.001	0.138	0.038	0.008	0.002	0.001
CAR	3-8	0.000	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	4-7	0.443	0.572	0.170	0.036	0.009	0.002
CLE	4-7	0.000	0.029	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-8	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	4-7	0.014	0.169	0.034	0.005	0.001	0.000
KC	4-7	0.552	0.556	0.105	0.015	0.002	0.000
STL	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)
First to 100% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (week 12, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Green Bay over Houston

One more quick peek into the standings before the Giants take on the Saints.
Frankly, I have a hard time seeing Houston in the Superbowl with their QB situation.
Green Bay hasn't actually clinched a playoff spot, but their chances at at least 99.9995% and round to 100, however, a New Orleans loss tonight appears to clinch it for them.
The Rams and Vikings appear to be eliminated.
Tim Tebow has what should be a lower-tier team somehow in the mix.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.900	100.000	99.913	64.621	36.091	20.262
HOU	8-3	98.261	98.859	80.544	47.491	27.451	14.676
SF	9-2	99.943	99.986	98.413	61.700	33.188	18.223
BAL	8-3	75.848	98.216	87.334	50.496	26.134	13.035
NE	8-3	98.835	99.380	86.368	47.325	24.913	12.355
NO	7-3	78.552	89.072	51.132	21.314	9.790	4.545
DET	7-4	0.073	60.793	34.464	13.547	6.002	2.693
CHI	7-4	0.027	77.406	42.406	16.002	6.829	2.957
PIT	8-3	18.996	91.668	59.220	25.373	10.881	4.530
CIN	7-4	5.155	56.032	29.335	12.029	5.084	2.050
ATL	7-4	21.398	62.539	29.016	9.872	3.850	1.516
TEN	6-5	1.739	19.021	7.159	2.532	0.954	0.331
NYJ	6-5	1.104	25.900	10.049	3.480	1.291	0.446
MIA	3-8	0.001	0.009	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
DAL	6-5	56.108	57.912	23.891	7.093	2.374	0.821
PHI	4-7	5.015	5.198	2.104	0.618	0.206	0.071
NYG	6-4	38.559	41.480	16.514	4.679	1.500	0.497
SEA	5-6	0.056	4.845	1.925	0.509	0.160	0.050
OAK	7-4	63.533	68.450	26.191	7.773	2.367	0.702
BUF	5-6	0.060	2.023	0.654	0.188	0.058	0.017
SD	4-7	1.236	1.422	0.470	0.131	0.037	0.010
DEN	6-5	34.678	38.433	12.561	3.163	0.827	0.209
ARI	4-7	0.001	0.139	0.043	0.009	0.002	0.001
CAR	3-8	0.002	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	4-7	0.318	0.442	0.135	0.029	0.007	0.002
CLE	4-7	0.000	0.029	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000
MIN	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-8	-	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	4-7	0.048	0.185	0.042	0.007	0.001	0.000
KC	4-7	0.553	0.557	0.105	0.015	0.002	0.000
STL	2-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	0-11	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

Win a Big Pile of Cards

Go enter the contest at Royals and Randoms.  And of course, promote it for an extra entry like I am here.

Remember, the hole's natural enemy is the pile.  Think about it.

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 13

LSU holds on to #1, as always. I was really pulling against them this week, as I understood a loss by them would result in some sort of odd 3-way tie where Arkansas would win the SEC West, and LSU and Alabama could still wind up in the BCS Championship.  If nothing else it would force more scrutiny on the BCS, which is always a good thing.  Virginia Tech is back up to #2, and I'm surprised to see it's the BCS computers, not the polls, keeping them down.  Houston is stalking the idle Alabama at #4.  The top of my rankings actually aren't that far off from the BCS rankings this week, with a match at #1 and the same top 6.

In the reverse of the Virginia Tech situation, Missouri surprisingly showed up in the top 25 despite being absent from both polls.  The BCS computers ranked them as high as 15 and 16, whereas I have them at #42 this week.  With any luck, that will help them get a higher profile bowl game.

1	LSU	12-0
2	Virginia Tech	11-1
3	Alabama	11-1
4	Houston	12-0
5	Stanford	11-1
6	Oklahoma State	10-1
7	Michigan	10-2
8	South Carolina	10-2
9	Boise State	10-1
10	USC	10-2
11	Georgia	10-2
12	Oregon	10-2
13	Wisconsin	10-2
14	Michigan State	10-2
15	Arkansas	10-2
16	Oklahoma	9-2
17	Kansas State	9-2
18	Nebraska	9-3
19	Clemson	9-3
20	Penn State	9-3
21	Southern Miss	10-2
22	TCU	9-2
23	Baylor	8-3
24	Arkansas State	9-2
25	Northern Illinois	9-3
26	West Virginia	8-3
27	Notre Dame	8-4
28	Toledo	8-4
29	Ohio	9-3
30	Rutgers	8-4
31	Virginia	8-4
32	Cincinnati	8-3
33	Tulsa	8-4
34	Georgia Tech	8-4
35	North Carolina	7-5
36	Florida State	8-4
37	Texas	7-4
38	Louisiana Tech	8-4
39	Auburn	7-5
40	Louisville	7-5
41	Brigham Young	8-3
42	Missouri	7-5
43	North Carolina State	7-5
44	Washington	7-5
45	Iowa	7-5
46	Temple	8-4
47	Wyoming	7-4
48	California	7-5
49	Utah	7-5
50	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
51	Iowa State	6-5
52	San Diego State	7-4
53	Florida International	8-4
54	Southern Methodist	7-5
55	Texas A&M	6-6
56	Air Force	7-5
57	Western Michigan	7-5
58	Miami (FL)	6-6
59	Florida	6-6
60	Western Kentucky	7-5
61	Ohio State	6-6
62	Illinois	6-6
63	Mississippi State	6-6
64	Vanderbilt	6-6
65	Marshall	6-6
66	Wake Forest	6-6
67	UCLA	6-6
68	Arizona State	6-6
69	Eastern Michigan	6-6
70	Ball State	6-6
71	Purdue	6-6
72	Pittsburgh	5-6
73	Utah State	6-5
74	Northwestern	6-6
75	Tennessee	5-7
76	Nevada	6-5
77	South Florida	5-6
78	Syracuse	5-6
79	Texas Tech	5-7
80	Kentucky	5-7
81	Connecticut	5-6
82	Kent State	5-7
83	Bowling Green	5-7
84	Hawaii	6-6
85	East Carolina	5-7
86	UTEP	5-7
87	Navy	4-7
88	San Jose State	5-7
89	Arizona	4-8
90	UCF	5-7
91	Boston College	4-8
92	Rice	4-8
93	North Texas	4-7
94	Fresno State	4-8
95	Washington State	4-8
96	Minnesota	3-9
97	Miami (OH)	4-8
98	New Mexico State	4-8
99	Oregon State	3-9
100	Duke	3-9
101	Central Michigan	3-9
102	Louisiana-Monroe	3-8
103	Colorado	3-10
104	Kansas	2-10
105	Maryland	2-10
106	Army	3-8
107	Buffalo	3-9
108	Ole Miss	2-10
109	Troy	3-8
110	Colorado State	3-8
111	UAB	3-9
112	Idaho	2-9
113	UNLV	2-9
114	Middle Tennessee	2-9
115	Indiana	1-11
116	New Mexico	1-10
117	Memphis	2-10
118	Florida Atlantic	1-10
119	Tulane	2-11
120	Akron	1-11

Another Contest win at Sports Card Info

Many of you know Sports Card Info runs a weekly contest where you can enter by commenting on the contest post up to once per day.  I won one last July, and another just a few weeks ago.  Here's the nice Relic of Niklas Backstrom, a little blurrier than I realized:

2011-2012 ITG Canada Vs The World

Not only did he send me this card for free, but included two bonus packs:

2010 Panini Adrenalyn XL

I don't really collect football cards too seriously, so I didn't know what this product was.  Apparently you can enter the codes from the cards to play a game online.  I believe this game is expired, but if not, and if anyone wants the codes off the back, drop me an email and I'll send them.  Or, I'd be willing to trade the physical cards for some baseball stuff off my wantlist as well.

Sadly, no Rams were inside.  There was former Mizzou Tiger Justin Gage, though.

A big thanks to Ross at Sports Card Info for the contest and the bonus!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 12, Thursday

Green Bay over Baltimore

Note that Houston is a stronger team than Baltimore at the moment, but they're more likely to run into stronger teams in the playoffs.  It's kind of an odd scenario, which culminates in Houston being slightly less likely that Baltimore to make the Superbowl.  As of now, Green Bay could clinch the NFC North next week thanks to their continued undefeated season.

On a side note, I'm kind of glad the Rams didn't draft Ndamukong Suh last year, even though I pushed for it on Twitter.  That kind of on-field stuff doesn't play well in St. Louis, and he'd be run out of town and we'd be out a lot of money.  Not that we're holier-than-thou here; we'll put up with all kinds of off-field shenanigans.  But that's a rant for another time.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
GB	11-0	99.542	99.975	99.799	66.006	36.870	21.261
SF	9-2	99.620	99.980	98.523	61.833	33.414	18.860
HOU	7-3	97.679	98.831	83.321	49.029	27.883	14.312
BAL	8-3	79.865	96.909	89.378	54.145	29.215	14.575
NE	7-3	96.025	98.685	83.563	44.190	22.486	10.509
NO	7-3	83.857	93.227	56.892	23.703	10.894	5.227
DET	7-4	0.063	32.367	18.654	7.341	3.270	1.518
CHI	7-3	0.395	65.985	38.108	14.742	6.424	2.930
PIT	7-3	15.745	74.739	51.135	21.980	9.474	3.822
CIN	6-4	4.355	27.448	17.511	7.364	3.162	1.255
PHI	4-6	11.934	15.356	6.866	2.226	0.825	0.323
ATL	6-4	15.867	61.405	27.001	8.643	3.205	1.246
NYJ	5-5	1.945	36.846	14.354	5.056	1.922	0.651
TEN	5-5	2.283	27.823	10.564	3.716	1.405	0.470
MIA	3-8	0.016	0.387	0.140	0.047	0.018	0.006
DAL	6-5	50.934	56.822	23.989	7.111	2.396	0.863
NYG	6-4	37.019	46.909	19.179	5.419	1.751	0.604
SEA	5-5	0.380	25.532	10.350	2.861	0.926	0.315
BUF	5-5	2.014	21.289	7.549	2.309	0.764	0.224
OAK	6-4	55.000	62.544	24.170	7.259	2.276	0.658
SD	4-6	13.704	16.164	5.740	1.692	0.523	0.148
DEN	5-5	29.202	35.480	11.922	3.095	0.850	0.214
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.484	0.146	0.030	0.008	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.012	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.113	0.329	0.097	0.019	0.005	0.001
CLE	4-6	0.035	0.290	0.101	0.023	0.006	0.001
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.213	0.049	0.010	0.002	0.001
TB	4-6	0.272	1.618	0.393	0.065	0.013	0.003
KC	4-6	2.095	2.352	0.503	0.083	0.015	0.002
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

eBay Wins #8

Oddly enough, Thorzul posted this card on Tuesday as he got it from the Diamond Giveaway.  I bought it on eBay for 35 cents awhile back, and it was the next one in my queue to post.

I don't think I can weave a tale any better than Thorzul's about Carl Morton inspiring the Morton's Salt logo.  Unless...

Morton's Steakhouse?
Morton Hears a Who?
Morton Antivirus?
Trust the Morton's Fisherman?

Nah, it's Thanksgiving, there's Turkey to be eaten!  Instead, I'll just introduce my eBay tracker, in its nascent form, to keep track of my eBay bargain hunting.

eBay Tracker
Total Cards Bought	97
Total Spent	$2.80
Per Card	2.89 cents

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Final

San Francisco over Houston

San Francisco's big win puts them back on top of the NFL, and Houston stays atop the AFC during a bye week with Baltimore's narrow win.  There's been one more elimination, as the Rams can no longer win the NFC West at 2-8.  One flaw in this particular system may be that it does not take into account the strength of opponents, only the scores of the games.  So San Francisco's big win this week against the Cardinals moves them ahead of Green Bay, who beat a slightly better team.  In fact, even if Green Bay had beaten another 9-0 team by the same score, the results would be the same.  Even so, I'll stick to my guns and say as of now San Francisco is my Superbowl pick.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	9-1	99.820	99.991	99.261	62.835	35.378	20.436
GB	10-0	93.292	98.344	96.548	60.368	32.090	18.024
HOU	7-3	97.718	98.858	84.655	50.979	29.834	15.615
BAL	7-3	63.111	91.282	78.384	44.106	22.708	10.903
NE	7-3	95.935	98.622	84.180	45.886	23.926	11.417
DET	7-3	4.504	47.264	30.027	13.119	6.108	2.998
NO	7-3	83.661	93.555	56.658	24.071	11.316	5.549
CHI	7-3	2.205	53.486	31.895	12.919	5.711	2.665
PIT	7-3	28.613	76.696	56.006	25.362	11.142	4.599
CIN	6-4	8.204	30.712	20.349	8.947	3.931	1.597
PHI	4-6	14.813	17.977	7.831	2.638	0.995	0.400
ATL	6-4	16.057	63.257	27.486	9.172	3.445	1.373
NYJ	5-5	1.937	36.551	14.601	5.338	2.070	0.718
TEN	5-5	2.243	27.403	10.650	3.901	1.504	0.517
MIA	3-7	0.127	1.825	0.679	0.243	0.093	0.032
DAL	5-5	40.688	45.063	18.300	5.588	1.917	0.705
NYG	6-4	44.225	52.100	20.799	6.118	2.018	0.715
SEA	5-5	0.180	26.177	10.470	3.033	0.990	0.346
BUF	5-5	2.002	20.849	7.605	2.430	0.821	0.247
OAK	6-4	54.989	62.541	24.410	7.645	2.460	0.730
SD	4-6	13.781	16.311	5.827	1.786	0.566	0.165
DEN	5-5	29.101	35.351	11.950	3.244	0.916	0.236
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.508	0.154	0.034	0.009	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.015	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.274	0.486	0.139	0.029	0.007	0.002
CLE	4-6	0.072	0.411	0.145	0.035	0.009	0.002
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.201	0.047	0.011	0.003	0.001
TB	4-6	0.277	1.778	0.429	0.076	0.016	0.003
KC	4-6	2.129	2.389	0.510	0.088	0.016	0.003
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Sunday

San Francisco over Houston

Here's one more quick peek into the updated projections before MNF.  The last few weeks have fluctuated a lot between SF/GB in the NFC and HOU/BAL in the AFC.  The 49ers break the 20% mark, so right now I give them a better than 1 in 5 shot at winning it all.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	9-1	99.820	99.991	99.262	62.836	35.380	20.791
GB	10-0	93.092	98.299	96.437	60.272	32.041	18.322
HOU	7-3	97.719	98.883	87.363	54.979	32.960	17.253
BAL	7-3	63.867	91.457	79.814	46.494	24.571	11.800
DET	7-3	4.699	48.152	30.617	13.387	6.232	3.125
NO	7-3	83.662	93.529	56.642	24.075	11.314	5.668
CHI	7-3	2.208	52.612	31.372	12.710	5.620	2.680
NE	6-3	90.805	95.707	74.211	35.538	16.692	7.056
PIT	7-3	27.751	75.980	55.984	26.208	11.862	4.895
CIN	6-4	8.308	31.200	21.028	9.592	4.349	1.766
PHI	4-6	15.642	18.960	8.260	2.783	1.050	0.432
ATL	6-4	16.056	63.197	27.466	9.164	3.442	1.408
NYJ	5-5	4.596	35.687	15.446	5.809	2.300	0.798
TEN	5-5	2.243	27.915	11.780	4.473	1.756	0.603
MIA	3-7	0.391	2.143	0.883	0.320	0.125	0.043
DAL	5-5	40.291	44.726	18.162	5.546	1.902	0.718
NYG	6-4	43.765	51.651	20.617	6.064	1.999	0.728
SEA	5-5	0.180	26.072	10.429	3.020	0.986	0.355
BUF	5-5	4.208	22.660	9.087	2.970	1.026	0.309
OAK	6-4	52.400	60.176	24.250	7.863	2.627	0.779
SD	4-6	13.509	16.107	5.869	1.865	0.614	0.178
DEN	5-5	28.739	35.120	12.377	3.466	1.018	0.262
ARI	3-7	0.000	0.503	0.153	0.034	0.009	0.002
CAR	2-8	0.004	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.303	0.534	0.153	0.032	0.008	0.002
CLE	4-6	0.074	0.426	0.158	0.040	0.011	0.002
MIN	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	3-7	0.038	0.208	0.052	0.012	0.003	0.001
KC	4-5	5.351	6.331	1.699	0.370	0.086	0.017
TB	4-6	0.277	1.759	0.425	0.075	0.016	0.004
STL	2-8	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 11, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 12

As expected, LSU stays on top.  Spankee's Hokies get overtaken by Alabama at #3.  Houston might become another story of national interest as they'll insist they should get a shot at the title, but the BCS will likely keep them out.  Although, an LSU loss this week could leave Houston as the only 12-0 team, making the choice to leave them out that much tougher.

1	LSU	11-0
2	Oklahoma State	10-1
3	Alabama	10-1
4	Virginia Tech	10-1
5	Houston	11-0
6	Arkansas	10-1
7	Kansas State	9-2
8	Stanford	10-1
9	Michigan	9-2
10	Penn State	9-2
11	Clemson	9-2
12	Boise State	9-1
13	South Carolina	9-2
14	Georgia	9-2
15	USC	9-2
16	TCU	9-2
17	Oregon	9-2
18	Michigan State	9-2
19	Wisconsin	9-2
20	Oklahoma	8-2
21	Nebraska	8-3
22	Arkansas State	9-2
23	Southern Miss	9-2
24	Notre Dame	8-3
25	Rutgers	8-3
26	Baylor	7-3
27	Virginia	8-3
28	Georgia Tech	8-3
29	Tulsa	8-3
30	Northern Illinois	8-3
31	Auburn	7-4
32	West Virginia	7-3
33	Ohio	8-3
34	Toledo	7-4
35	Utah	7-4
36	Brigham Young	8-3
37	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-3
38	Iowa	7-4
39	North Carolina	6-5
40	Cincinnati	7-3
41	Wyoming	7-3
42	Florida State	7-4
43	Texas	6-4
44	Iowa State	6-4
45	Louisiana Tech	7-4
46	Miami (FL)	6-5
47	Texas A&M	6-5
48	Missouri	6-5
49	North Carolina State	6-5
50	Illinois	6-5
51	Florida	6-5
52	Louisville	6-5
53	Temple	7-4
54	Washington	6-5
55	Wake Forest	6-5
56	San Diego State	6-4
57	Ohio State	6-5
58	Florida International	7-4
59	California	6-5
60	Arizona State	6-5
61	UCLA	6-5
62	Eastern Michigan	6-5
63	Southern Methodist	6-5
64	Air Force	6-5
65	Tennessee	5-6
66	Western Michigan	6-5
67	Ball State	6-5
68	Pittsburgh	5-5
69	Nevada	6-4
70	Northwestern	6-5
71	Western Kentucky	6-5
72	South Florida	5-5
73	Mississippi State	5-6
74	Texas Tech	5-6
75	Syracuse	5-5
76	Marshall	5-6
77	Vanderbilt	5-6
78	Purdue	5-6
79	Kent State	5-6
80	UTEP	5-6
81	East Carolina	5-6
82	Utah State	5-5
83	Navy	4-7
84	Kentucky	4-7
85	Bowling Green	4-7
86	Rice	4-7
87	Hawaii	5-6
88	Connecticut	4-6
89	North Texas	4-7
90	Fresno State	4-7
91	Washington State	4-7
92	San Jose State	4-7
93	UCF	4-7
94	Miami (OH)	4-7
95	Arizona	3-8
96	New Mexico State	4-7
97	Oregon State	3-8
98	Duke	3-8
99	Boston College	3-8
100	Louisiana-Monroe	3-8
101	Kansas	2-9
102	Central Michigan	3-9
103	Maryland	2-9
104	Buffalo	3-8
105	Minnesota	2-9
106	Ole Miss	2-9
107	Army	3-8
108	Troy	3-7
109	UAB	3-8
110	Colorado State	3-7
111	UNLV	2-8
112	Colorado	2-10
113	Idaho	2-9
114	Indiana	1-10
115	Middle Tennessee	2-8
116	New Mexico	1-10
117	Tulane	2-10
118	Memphis	2-9
119	Akron	1-10
120	Florida Atlantic	0-10

eBay Wins #7

It must have been a 2005 kind of day.

2005 Topps Turkey Red David Wright for $0.15

2005 Topps Heritage Mark Teixeira for $0.10

2005 Bowman Heritage Roger Clemens and Mark Teixeira for $0.10 each

I spent a big 45 cents for 4 cards there.  I also just noticed they're all New York guys, at least at some point in their careers.

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Houston over Green Bay

Ok, so the end result didn't change, but I think it's interested to see the effects of just one game compared to the end of Week 10.  Tim Tebow shocking the Jets really changed the potential fortunes for those two teams. The Jets dropped from 42% to under 26%, while the Broncos jumped from 20% to 32%.  The jump was so big because the Broncos weren't supposed to win this game.  Of course, each team's respective divisional rivals experienced inverse effects, with San Diego, Oakland, and even Kansas City seeing their playoff chances reduced, and New England, Buffalo, and yes, even the lowly Dolphins, getting a bump.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.785	97.638	85.292	53.747	32.716	17.900
GB	9-0	92.898	98.396	96.054	59.730	32.552	18.302
SF	8-1	99.617	99.955	97.965	59.144	31.997	17.832
BAL	6-3	45.865	76.305	63.053	35.317	18.417	9.071
NO	7-3	88.634	95.602	60.429	27.632	13.632	6.910
DET	6-3	4.704	48.776	29.930	13.341	6.311	3.104
NE	6-3	82.787	92.996	71.344	34.839	16.547	7.377
CIN	6-3	21.365	48.085	35.893	17.759	8.402	3.740
CHI	6-3	2.398	51.553	29.464	12.121	5.392	2.499
PIT	7-3	32.733	73.424	55.502	26.683	12.226	5.330
PHI	3-6	9.127	13.349	5.813	2.015	0.771	0.310
ATL	5-4	10.598	50.310	21.633	7.488	2.886	1.162
TEN	5-4	5.055	33.966	15.990	6.444	2.637	0.996
NYJ	5-5	3.902	25.790	11.416	4.386	1.757	0.648
BUF	5-4	13.233	40.612	20.542	7.932	3.133	1.148
NYG	6-3	63.821	73.069	32.500	10.744	3.859	1.479
DAL	4-5	25.272	34.742	14.565	4.712	1.676	0.634
SD	4-5	23.446	25.558	10.014	3.451	1.209	0.397
OAK	5-4	41.736	45.914	17.683	5.722	1.876	0.577
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.274	8.123	2.255	0.703	0.231
MIA	2-7	0.079	0.338	0.120	0.037	0.013	0.004
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.386	1.154	0.309	0.094	0.030
DEN	5-5	28.998	32.191	11.217	3.237	0.960	0.265
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.257	0.083	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.780	3.237	0.978	0.227	0.059	0.017
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.200	0.069	0.018	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.652	0.183	0.047	0.012	0.003
TB	4-5	0.720	5.066	1.303	0.261	0.060	0.014
KC	4-5	5.821	6.331	1.682	0.380	0.090	0.020
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

A Great Trade from Card Anathema

Matt at Card Anathema recently contacted me with an offer I couldn't refuse: a whole bunch of Topps Series 1 for a single card he was missing.  I managed to add a few Series 2 off his want list as well.  Here's what he sent me:

You've all seen 2011 Topps by now, so here's one representative sample, and the list

Brendan Ryan in a Movember-appropriate shot.

2011 Topps
5 Joey Votto
8 Julio Borbon
19 Derek Lowe
27 Ben Zobrist
30 Gio Gonzalez
43 Brendan Ryan
53 Arizona Diamondbacks
55 Matt Joyce
72 Jair Jurrjens
73 James McDonald
77 Tim Hudson
99 Ben Revere
102 CC Sabathia
129 Lucas Duda
137 Xavier Nady
140 Brett Anderson
141 Ubaldo Jimenez
145 Freddie Freeman
163 Carlos Pena
169 Chipper Jones
172 Lyle Overbay
175 Brennan Boesch
181 Magglio Ordonez
197 Aaron Hill
207 Angel Pagan
209 Carlos Santana
221 Scott Hairston
226 Jose Guillen
229 Jonathan Sanchez
241 Wandy Rodriguez
250 Carlos Gonzalez
251 Alcides Escobar
252 Michael Saunders
260 Freddy Sanchez
275 Clayton Kershaw
282 Buster Posey
283 Colorado Rockies
291 Juan Gutierrez
320 Michael Young

As if that wasn't enough, he also sent along some 1990 Score for no reason in particular, other than being a good guy.

I actually had to look up and see if I remembered correctly that Gerald Perry was a Cardinal.

1990 Score
37 Lee Smith
43 Gerald Young
57 Frank Tanana
243 Derek Lilliquist
246 Scott Garrelts
249 Gerald Perry
357 Dave LaPoint
363 Mark Carreon
377 Don Aase
533 Curt Young
536 Lance Blankenship

A big thanks to Matt, and go check out Card Anathema!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 10

Houston over Green Bay

I actually ran my numbers during the MNF game and Green Bay wasn't favored until the final touchdown was scored, so they are very close to San Francisco in strength, enough that a 7 point swing could put the 49ers back on top of the NFC.  Minnesota is eliminated from winning the NFC North.  Even if they can tie Green Bay, they've already lost to them twice.  I'm less clear on how a 3 way tie or 4 way tie could play out, but as far as I can tell Minnesota can't come out on top in any of them.  In the NFC West, I've heard that this is the first week since the 2002 realignment that all 4 teams have won their respective games.

On the AFC side, Houston's convincing win and Baltimore's loss to a lowly NFC West team has put the Texans back on top.  Indianapolis is finally officially out of the playoffs, though again, I'd have to draw out their best-case scenario by hand to prove it for sure

I'm looking forward to the last of the byes this week.  It makes my numbers feel much less quirky, especially when it comes to ranking 7-3 teams against 6-3 teams.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
HOU	7-3	94.809	97.230	84.257	53.050	32.315	17.678
GB	9-0	92.889	98.389	96.045	59.718	32.552	18.328
SF	8-1	99.618	99.955	97.968	59.172	32.013	17.867
BAL	6-3	45.872	76.182	62.686	35.099	18.343	9.034
NO	7-3	88.638	95.604	60.436	27.632	13.630	6.920
DET	6-3	4.702	48.681	29.859	13.305	6.296	3.101
NE	6-3	78.261	91.481	70.246	34.404	16.354	7.291
CIN	6-3	21.354	47.873	35.403	17.517	8.314	3.700
CHI	6-3	2.409	51.628	29.502	12.136	5.397	2.506
PIT	7-3	32.736	73.310	55.031	26.463	12.157	5.297
PHI	3-6	9.121	13.377	5.829	2.021	0.772	0.311
ATL	5-4	10.594	50.277	21.628	7.485	2.885	1.164
TEN	5-4	5.031	28.667	13.664	5.529	2.271	0.857
NYJ	5-4	9.449	42.241	20.838	8.234	3.338	1.252
BUF	5-4	12.234	36.223	18.585	7.190	2.839	1.040
NYG	6-3	63.731	73.020	32.485	10.738	3.853	1.477
DAL	4-5	25.375	34.816	14.598	4.721	1.680	0.636
SD	4-5	26.289	27.682	10.855	3.754	1.313	0.431
OAK	5-4	47.618	50.133	19.200	6.233	2.042	0.627
SEA	4-5	0.332	22.293	8.125	2.255	0.703	0.232
MIA	2-7	0.056	0.275	0.097	0.030	0.010	0.003
ARI	3-6	0.050	3.390	1.157	0.310	0.094	0.030
DEN	4-5	19.256	20.795	7.012	2.005	0.587	0.160
CAR	2-7	0.049	0.256	0.082	0.020	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-6	1.774	3.229	0.978	0.226	0.059	0.016
MIN	2-7	-	0.006	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	3-6	0.038	0.197	0.066	0.017	0.005	0.001
JAC	3-6	0.160	0.498	0.142	0.037	0.010	0.002
TB	4-5	0.719	5.055	1.300	0.260	0.060	0.015
KC	4-5	6.837	7.212	1.916	0.437	0.102	0.022
STL	2-7	0.000	0.024	0.005	0.001	0.000	0.000
IND	0-10	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 10)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 11

Into the home stretch, LSU and Oklahoma State are holding on at #1 and #2.  Oklahoma's idle week drops them from #3 to #8, swapping with Virginia Tech.  Another notable drop was Stanford, from #4 to #11.  On the other end, New Mexico wins and leaves Florida Atlantic as the only winless team and at #120 in the FBS.

1	LSU	10-0
2	Oklahoma State	10-0
3	Virginia Tech	9-1
4	Clemson	9-1
5	Alabama	9-1
6	Houston	10-0
7	Oregon	9-1
8	Oklahoma	8-1
9	Arkansas	9-1
10	Southern Miss	9-1
11	Stanford	9-1
12	Kansas State	8-2
13	Nebraska	8-2
14	Penn State	8-2
15	Michigan	8-2
16	Michigan State	8-2
17	Boise State	8-1
18	South Carolina	8-2
19	TCU	8-2
20	Georgia	8-2
21	USC	8-2
22	Arkansas State	8-2
23	Wisconsin	8-2
24	Notre Dame	7-3
25	West Virginia	7-3
26	Georgia Tech	7-3
27	Rutgers	7-3
28	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-3
29	Cincinnati	7-2
30	Tulsa	7-3
31	Virginia	7-3
32	Florida State	7-3
33	Baylor	6-3
34	North Carolina	6-4
35	Texas	6-3
36	Northern Illinois	7-3
37	Auburn	6-4
38	Washington	6-4
39	Illinois	6-4
40	Toledo	6-4
41	Ohio	7-3
42	Utah	6-4
43	Brigham Young	7-3
44	Wyoming	6-3
45	Iowa	6-4
46	Ohio State	6-4
47	Eastern Michigan	6-4
48	Arizona State	6-4
49	San Diego State	6-3
50	Southern Methodist	6-4
51	California	6-4
52	Texas A&M	5-5
53	Louisiana Tech	6-4
54	Nevada	6-3
55	Miami (FL)	5-5
56	Ball State	6-4
57	South Florida	5-4
58	Missouri	5-5
59	Iowa State	5-4
60	Pittsburgh	5-5
61	Temple	6-4
62	Wake Forest	5-5
62	Texas Tech	5-5
64	North Carolina State	5-5
65	Louisville	5-5
66	Mississippi State	5-5
67	Vanderbilt	5-5
68	Florida	5-5
69	Florida International	6-4
70	Air Force	5-5
71	Syracuse	5-5
72	Purdue	5-5
73	UCLA	5-5
74	Western Michigan	5-5
75	Western Kentucky	5-5
76	Northwestern	5-5
77	UTEP	5-5
78	Tennessee	4-6
79	Marshall	4-6
80	Navy	4-6
81	Kent State	4-6
82	Hawaii	5-5
83	Kentucky	4-6
84	East Carolina	4-6
85	Connecticut	4-5
86	North Texas	4-6
87	Bowling Green	4-6
88	Utah State	4-5
89	Washington State	4-6
90	UCF	4-6
91	Miami (OH)	4-6
92	Rice	3-7
93	New Mexico State	4-6
94	Duke	3-7
95	Boston College	3-7
96	Louisiana-Monroe	3-7
97	Kansas	2-8
98	Fresno State	3-7
99	Maryland	2-8
100	Minnesota	2-8
101	Central Michigan	3-8
102	San Jose State	3-7
103	Army	3-7
104	Arizona	2-8
105	Ole Miss	2-8
106	Colorado State	3-6
107	Oregon State	2-8
108	Buffalo	2-8
109	Colorado	2-9
110	UNLV	2-7
111	Troy	2-7
112	Idaho	2-8
113	Indiana	1-9
114	Middle Tennessee	2-7
115	UAB	2-8
116	New Mexico	1-9
117	Tulane	2-9
118	Memphis	2-8
119	Akron	1-9
120	Florida Atlantic	0-9

A Contest win from The Diamond King

I won a contest at The Diamond King over a month ago.  He was kind enough to offer up some Beat Up Vintage for merely answering a question on his blog. 

1979 Topps

#411 Sisler/Cobb

#415 Brock/Brock - I love that he gets featured twice on 1 card

#430 Dave Parker

1974 Topps

2 Hank Aaron 54-57

4 Hank Aaron 62-65

He sent 2 of each of these!

1973 Topps #400 Gaylord Perry

1972 Topps #37 Carl Yastrzemski

1971 Topps

#180 Al Kaline

#525 Ernie Banks

These were looking pretty rough, so I didn't even pull them out of the sleeve.

1955 Bowman #216 Preacher Roe

Man is this one beat up, but I don't care; it's 56 years old!

1993 Topps - Gold #119 Pedro Munoz

1994 Topps - Black Gold #42 Sammy Sosa

I'm a fan of the Topps Gold and Black Gold, especially from 1992, so these are great additions.

Next up, some Nomars!

2002 Fleer Genuine #93

1999 Upper Deck MVP - Swing Time #S6

1999 Upper Deck HoloGrFX - Starview #S6

1998 Studio #60

I really liked Studio, in fact I have the whole set of 8x10s from 1997

The Vintage was the real prize in the contest, with the Gold and Nomars thrown in since they are some of my favorites.  I really enjoy the 70s cards (and 50s!) because I started collecting in the 90s and don't have a lot of older stuff.  Even though I was a big Nomar fan, my collecting waned around 1999-2000, so those cards nicely fill in some gaps too.

A big thanks to the Diamond King!  And go check out his blog!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 9

San Francisco over Houston (just barely)

Houston's big win and Baltimore's narrow victory brought the Texans back to the top of the AFC.  Their chanced at the Super Bowl are just .04% greater than Baltimore, largely because they have a less competitive division to try to win.

San Francisco might doze off in a few weeks with no competition behind them either, or they might rest everyone and blast through the playoffs on fresh legs.

Finally, at the end of the chart, you see that Indy still has a chance at making the playoffs, but never made it to the Super Bowl in my 160 million simulations.  This doesn't mean they can't, of course, because once you're in the playoffs, anything could happen.  It just means that, right now, the chances are roughly less than 1 in 160 million.

Have I addressed here yet that I think the Rams could pull some shenanigans and wind up better off? If they could get someone to take on most of Bradford's contract, and wind up drafting a QB such as Luck, they'd probably upgrade for less money thanks to the new rookie pay rules.  Don't get me wrong, I like Sam, but I like winning football better, and there's a mild chance more money might buy us that.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	7-1	99.58	99.87	95.20	56.26	31.20	17.53
DET	6-2	20.93	80.43	56.05	29.69	15.73	8.58
HOU	6-3	95.49	96.29	73.28	42.43	23.56	12.24
BAL	6-2	55.11	86.89	73.67	42.38	23.52	12.19
GB	8-0	77.14	97.21	88.12	48.66	24.64	13.07
NO	6-3	69.19	86.55	52.98	25.50	12.87	6.68
CIN	6-2	33.92	68.55	53.43	27.55	14.03	6.71
BUF	5-3	34.37	63.30	43.84	21.00	9.95	4.48
PIT	6-3	10.88	42.45	28.02	13.06	6.14	2.71
NYJ	5-3	29.85	59.09	38.97	18.00	8.26	3.60
NE	5-3	35.77	65.53	44.02	20.20	9.17	3.96
CHI	5-3	1.93	21.60	11.61	4.74	2.01	0.88
PHI	3-5	14.73	24.95	11.12	4.29	1.74	0.74
ATL	5-3	27.03	62.48	28.67	11.12	4.50	1.92
NYG	6-2	75.41	82.61	41.34	15.50	6.03	2.49
SD	4-4	47.30	48.59	20.34	7.64	2.87	1.03
TEN	4-4	4.25	11.61	4.99	1.83	0.67	0.23
CAR	2-6	0.38	1.60	0.59	0.19	0.06	0.02
MIN	2-6	0.00	0.07	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
OAK	4-4	26.85	28.71	10.62	3.51	1.16	0.37
SEA	3-5	0.33	9.81	3.57	1.07	0.34	0.11
ARI	2-6	0.08	1.55	0.54	0.16	0.05	0.02
DAL	3-5	6.29	10.60	3.60	1.03	0.32	0.10
MIA	1-7	0.02	0.09	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
WAS	3-5	3.58	7.26	2.41	0.68	0.20	0.06
DEN	3-5	10.26	11.15	3.66	1.08	0.32	0.09
TB	4-4	3.40	13.40	4.16	1.10	0.31	0.09
CLE	3-5	0.09	0.62	0.21	0.06	0.02	0.00
KC	4-4	15.59	16.76	4.83	1.24	0.32	0.08
JAC	2-6	0.26	0.38	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00
STL	1-7	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
IND	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 10

LSU holds on to #1 in dramatic fashion with the OT win over Alabama, who drops to #7.  Despite being undefeated, Boise State is still at #10.  Their potential Big East move should improve their opponent quality in the future, but we'll see if they can keep up their yearly win total.  Boise State was one of the teams I was sure the polls were underestimating before I put together my rankings.  As it turns out, I typically rank them lower than the human polls do.

1	LSU	9-0
2	Oklahoma State	9-0
3	Oklahoma	8-1
4	Stanford	9-0
5	Clemson	8-1
6	Houston	9-0
7	Alabama	8-1
8	Virginia Tech	8-1
9	Penn State	8-1
10	Boise State	8-0
11	Oregon	8-1
12	Southern Miss	8-1
13	Arkansas	8-1
14	Kansas State	7-2
15	Nebraska	7-2
16	South Carolina	7-2
17	Michigan	7-2
18	Michigan State	7-2
19	Georgia	7-2
20	USC	7-2
21	TCU	7-2
22	Georgia Tech	7-2
23	Wisconsin	7-2
24	Cincinnati	7-1
25	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-2
26	Arkansas State	7-2
27	Texas	6-2
28	North Carolina	6-4
29	Notre Dame	6-3
30	West Virginia	6-3
31	Auburn	6-3
32	Illinois	6-3
33	Washington	6-3
34	Rutgers	6-3
35	Arizona State	6-3
36	Virginia	6-3
37	Ohio State	6-3
38	Tulsa	6-3
39	Southern Methodist	6-3
40	Iowa	6-3
41	Baylor	5-3
42	Florida State	6-3
43	Miami (FL)	5-4
44	Texas A&M	5-4
44	North Carolina State	5-4
46	Northern Illinois	6-3
47	Brigham Young	6-3
48	Ball State	6-4
49	Toledo	5-4
50	Louisville	5-4
51	Ohio	6-3
52	Iowa State	5-4
53	Texas Tech	5-4
54	Utah	5-4
55	Eastern Michigan	5-4
56	Wake Forest	5-4
57	Syracuse	5-4
58	Wyoming	5-3
59	Mississippi State	5-4
60	Florida	5-4
61	UCLA	5-4
62	San Diego State	5-3
63	Western Michigan	5-4
64	Louisiana Tech	5-4
65	Air Force	5-4
66	California	5-4
67	Nevada	5-3
68	Tennessee	4-5
69	Missouri	4-5
70	Temple	5-4
71	Florida International	5-4
72	Western Kentucky	5-4
73	South Florida	4-4
74	Pittsburgh	4-5
75	Marshall	4-5
76	Vanderbilt	4-5
77	Kentucky	4-5
78	Purdue	4-5
79	Hawaii	5-4
80	East Carolina	4-5
81	Northwestern	4-5
82	Bowling Green	4-5
83	UTEP	4-5
84	Connecticut	4-5
85	Kent State	3-6
86	Navy	3-6
87	Miami (OH)	4-5
88	Rice	3-6
89	UCF	4-5
90	North Texas	3-6
91	Duke	3-6
92	Utah State	3-5
93	Fresno State	3-6
94	Kansas	2-7
95	Central Michigan	3-7
96	San Jose State	3-6
97	Washington State	3-6
98	Arizona	2-7
99	Maryland	2-7
100	Minnesota	2-7
101	Army	3-6
102	New Mexico State	3-6
103	Ole Miss	2-7
104	Louisiana-Monroe	2-7
105	UNLV	2-6
106	Oregon State	2-7
107	Colorado State	3-5
108	Boston College	2-7
109	Buffalo	2-7
110	Troy	2-6
111	Middle Tennessee	2-6
112	Idaho	2-7
113	Memphis	2-7
114	Indiana	1-9
115	Colorado	1-9
116	Tulane	2-8
117	Akron	1-8
118	UAB	1-8
119	Florida Atlantic	0-8
120	New Mexico	0-9

Contest at The Common (Card) Man

The Common (Card) Man is having a contest.  Help him celebrate his 1 year blogging anniversary, or blogiversary for those of you into portmanteaus.  He's a Brewers fan, but we won't hold that against him.  Just go to the contest and guess which Black Glove Leather parallel he pulled from a Jumbo pack of 2011 Topps Update.

Good luck, everyone. (But mostly me)

Help me, help you

Or at least, help Kyle at Juust a bit outside fill his group break.  I've got the Cardinals and Baseball Dad wants the Indians, but as of this writing everybody else is up for grabs.  He's offering up the following boxes for $15 per team, and only $12 for the post-1992 expansion teams - Marlins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and (Devil) Rays.

2011 - Topps Lineage hobby and Topps Allen & Ginter hobby
2001 - Upper Deck Reserve
1991 - Stadium 1 & 2, Upper Deck jumbos (w/ silver slugger cards), and 1953 Archives
1981 - Donruss

If it fills up, this will be my first paid group break, as Cards on Cards eased me into the game with a free one awhile back.  So go claim your favorite team!

Superbowl XLVI Projection, Week 8

San Francisco over Baltimore

And we're back to the Week 5 and Week 6 results.  I'm starting to feel more confident in that pick.  We'll see how the next 9 weeks go though.  On the other end, the Colts aren't mathematically out yet, even at 0-8, though I'd need more decimal places to show their chances from here on out.

TEAM	Record	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DET	6-2	27.48	85.35	62.21	34.21	18.77	10.55
SF	6-1	99.63	99.79	93.84	54.65	29.39	16.34
BAL	5-2	42.64	72.95	58.64	33.54	18.88	9.84
GB	7-0	70.79	96.49	85.35	47.39	24.69	13.38
HOU	5-3	86.72	88.94	59.94	32.32	17.30	8.61
NO	5-3	64.45	77.21	47.37	22.58	11.16	5.75
BUF	5-2	51.62	79.59	62.96	33.48	17.19	8.34
CIN	5-2	29.05	57.37	42.94	22.17	11.37	5.42
PIT	6-2	27.86	61.33	44.50	22.10	10.93	5.05
NE	5-2	38.43	75.40	53.67	26.08	12.36	5.56
PHI	3-4	26.80	42.57	20.99	8.63	3.71	1.69
CHI	4-3	1.73	16.70	9.09	3.75	1.62	0.72
NYJ	4-3	9.96	27.86	16.80	7.56	3.35	1.40
NYG	5-2	49.16	64.34	33.19	12.71	5.00	2.11
SD	4-3	40.45	43.75	20.71	8.39	3.39	1.30
ATL	4-3	21.86	43.00	18.89	6.71	2.48	0.98
DAL	3-4	17.35	29.61	12.82	4.50	1.65	0.65
TEN	4-3	12.87	23.12	11.10	4.40	1.75	0.64
OAK	4-3	33.72	37.56	16.53	6.07	2.23	0.78
CAR	2-6	0.77	1.70	0.64	0.21	0.07	0.03
MIN	2-6	0.00	0.11	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.00
WAS	3-4	6.69	13.70	5.26	1.64	0.53	0.19
ARI	1-6	0.13	1.02	0.37	0.11	0.03	0.01
TB	4-3	12.92	25.03	8.82	2.59	0.81	0.27
CLE	3-4	0.45	1.82	0.79	0.27	0.09	0.03
KC	4-3	23.64	27.28	10.48	3.35	1.07	0.32
SEA	2-5	0.21	3.27	1.09	0.29	0.08	0.02
DEN	2-5	2.19	2.52	0.80	0.23	0.07	0.02
MIA	0-7	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-6	0.42	0.50	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00
STL	1-6	0.02	0.10	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00
IND	0-8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: Detroit (week 3)
First to 15% chance of Superbowl win: San Francisco (week 6)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Detroit (week 3)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Detroit, San Francisco, Green Bay (week 5)
First to 95% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco, Green Bay (week 6)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (week 8)